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Urban Meyer or bust

BurntOrange&White

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Posted by Rimbo,

i was told to post this by my source:    hey @futureman...

Keep up

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Posted by Nicole44,

—————— ‘‘Twas the night before Christmas when all thru the thirsty 40, not a whiff of credible news, what happened to that gal port o potty? The BDE was really hung by the firepit with flare. Surlies guzzling whisky/whiskey waiting for Urban to show up there.  The 9.95’ers were restless spewing their usual nonsense and dread while visions of desperate subscribers twerked in their heads. Nightcrew rocking the hope while the Daycrew rocking the clap, Eltife’s already gathered t

A Christmas Tale worth telling!

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Just had to hop on Surly to say that I have never seen so many people setting themselves up for such a huge letdown! I love it!!

immamac
immamac

Can everyone plz retweet this  

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kopp0e

kopp0e 1135

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

You are an addict and might have a problem.. accept it now and go get help before they find you under an underpass giving handjobs for a McRib (NTTISWWT)

In front of In_N_Out on the underpass of I-35, exit 469..?

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BurntOrangeBlooded15

BurntOrangeBlooded15 1566

Posted
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

A new insider has appeared on 247 and he came out firing. Screenshot_20201208-071428_Chrome.jpg

Being born in mobilehoma and knowing a few of the fuck OU fan base, plus the twittersphere doing what it has the last few days, if this ends up happening, holy shit will I piss some people off 

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B00M

B00M 6416

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, ousux said:

As much as I'd like to believe this fan fiction, in what world would putting out a statement that Urbs turned down a job he hasnt officially been offered (not to mention our current coach hasnt been fired) seem like a good idea as a smokescreen or anything else? You want silence..until it's time to be unsilent.

statement? You mean the anonymous hedged sentence about his health that's been regurgitated as absolute? 

 

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bigup2dahorns

bigup2dahorns 3343

Posted
Posted

On the UK front, summer 2019 I was in the American Airlines lounge at Heathrow waiting for the flight back to DFW, wearing my usual burnt orange travel shirt with a longhorn logo. British couple next to me struck up a conversation about UT as the guy had worked in Austin on a temporary assignment and he was trying to explain to his female co worker what a massive ordeal Texas football and gameday is in Austin. We’re kind of a big deal, people know us. (Insert Anchorman meme here).

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alphahorn

alphahorn 1637

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, ousux said:
10 hours ago, alphahorn said:
Just got home after flying back from a weekend in Austin and am catching up on the last several hours.  Reading Caddox's post all I can say is BS.  This doesn't sound like the response of Urban Meyer.  The stress of the negotiations isn't going to shut him down.  Perhaps I'm just way to hopeful, but this sounds like CDC has stressed to all the insiders that we need to give the appearance that for now at least discussions are off with Meyer while we still have another coach under contract.  And I think the magnitude of this potential hire is finally enough to get all the insiders on board and unified.  If we truly reached out to Meyer as much as a month ago and he expressed interest in the job as has been reported, then until we announce Herman is coming back or he's fired and another coach is under contract, I'm betting Urban is still our guy. Perhaps I'm going down with this ship, but I'm riding it to the finish

As much as I'd like to believe this fan fiction, in what world would putting out a statement that Urbs turned down a job he hasnt officially been offered (not to mention our current coach hasnt been fired) seem like a good idea as a smokescreen or anything else? You want silence..until it's time to be unsilent.

you need to work on your reading comprehension, I never suggested such a thing

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5528

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

The reason you're not winning despite the resources is because you're dysfunctional. Like jerry jones level bad culture. I mean Ive seen some of the most toxic premier league football craziness has to offer and this beats it. Horrible leaks everywhere and bad actors masquerading as reporters or fans torpedoing the program and neutering the coach. Athletic program executives screwing up what's supposed to be a very private inquiry to replace their coach so badly it's top story on espn. This makes the Messi to ManCity fiasco from the summer look tame

This sounds vaguely familiar.

Oh yeah, you've posted the same shit 647 fucking times.

STFU already. Read the room and realize that no one gives a shit what you are saying.

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bigcigar

bigcigar 1164

Posted
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

A new insider has appeared on 247 and he came out firing. Screenshot_20201208-071428_Chrome.jpg

A sooner alum that I work with was telling me that Lincoln and the administration are not getting along and Lincoln wants out. He was telling me that he’s heard that Urban has reached out to Lincoln already and OU people are worried he may come to Austin with Urban. I didn’t believe him until I read one of his text from a big donor in Ponca City. He also told me Lincoln has AIDs.

 

not really. My employer requires more than a high school education.

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RollLeft

RollLeft 5045

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, alphahorn said:

Just got home after flying back from a weekend in Austin and am catching up on the last several hours.  Reading Caddox's post all I can say is BS.  This doesn't sound like the response of Urban Meyer.  The stress of the negotiations isn't going to shut him down.  Perhaps I'm just way to hopeful, but this sounds like CDC has stressed to all the insiders that we need to give the appearance that for now at least discussions are off with Meyer while we still have another coach under contract.  And I think the magnitude of this potential hire is finally enough to get all the insiders on board and unified.  If we truly reached out to Meyer as much as a month ago and he expressed interest in the job as has been reported, then until we announce Herman is coming back or he's fired and another coach is under contract, I'm betting Urban is still our guy. Perhaps I'm going down with this ship, but I'm riding it to the finish

Put me in this camp.

leonardo-dicaprio-james-cameron-today-in

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6608

Posted
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7 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

A sooner alum that I work with was telling me that Lincoln and the administration are not getting along and Lincoln wants out. He was telling me that he’s heard that Urban has reached out to Lincoln already and OU people are worried he may come to Austin with Urban. I didn’t believe him until I read one of his text from a big donor in Ponca City. He also told me Lincoln has AIDs.

 

not really. My employer requires more than a high school education.

These insider posts (not yours but the Venables one) are starting to read like the visiting fan to the A&M game fan fiction put out every season.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32861

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17 minutes ago, troph said:

Texas fucked up another corching search, news at 11.

We may still fuck it up (believe me, some are trying), but offering the clear #1 target everything he wants and getting told no is not fucking it up. 

Still way too much bitchass whining in here. 

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Doc Reeves

Doc Reeves 6434

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

This sounds vaguely familiar.

Oh yeah, you've posted the same shit 647 fucking times.

STFU already. Read the room and realize that no one gives a shit what you are saying.

Well, that and that take is horse shit. That may be the lay persons perception, but the hypocritical finger pointing from random sports fans who know dick is predictable and weak. 

Comparing us to the ManCity shit is hilarious. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18860

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SwanderedTalent said:

I don't know how or why we got into this mode of wanting above all else to be a Central Texas Stanford knockoff, but our culture lacks the kind of cut-throat win-first football primacy that Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and a few of the wanna-be hangers-on (LSU and Georgia, to name two) have. I don't know if Urban Meyer will be the coach here or not (it seems not), but if not, it wouldn't surprise me if a key reason was his read of "the room". He probably saw right through the salary offer and the mealy-mouthed platitudes about football being "king" here and realized this is an athletic department that intrinsically creates a selfish, soft football culture, because revenue and brand and glad-handing from ESPN and influence/access for BMDs are all more important than wins. 

Meyer will try to create his own culture wherever he goes but that's easier in some locations than others, and he has limited time to accomplish it at his age. 

We don't want to be Stanford. We think we're Berkeley.

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EastTexan

EastTexan 662

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

Well, that and that take is horse shit. That may be the lay persons perception, but the hypocritical finger pointing from random sports fans who know dick is predictable and weak. 

Comparing us to the ManCity shit is hilarious. 

wtf is a ManCity?

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troph

troph 24805

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

We may still fuck it up (believe me, some are trying), but offering the clear #1 target everything he wants and getting told no is not fucking it up. 

Still way too much bitchass whining in here. 

Took too long to get a no. Became to visible.  BSD energy cock blocked, now folks laughing.  He could right the ship but outside looking in it’s a bit jacked up rn. 

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FloridaHorn

FloridaHorn 4755

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

We may still fuck it up (believe me, some are trying), but offering the clear #1 target everything he wants and getting told no is not fucking it up. 

Still way too much bitchass whining in here. 

Offering the #1 target isn't the part we fucked up. We fucked up by offering while we still have a coach....but I agree with your last point as well, waaay to much bitchass whining going on.

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lonestarsooner

lonestarsooner 121

Posted
Posted (edited)

It get discussed here frequently but if you aren’t subscribing to the Athletic, you’re missing out in the best long form sports writing and reporting out there today. To that end, Andy Staples has a piece out today that encapsulates a bit of everything with the UT program, from the current coaching situation/search to a nod to the past state of the program that has led you to this point. It won’t be anything that many of you here don’t already know but it is well written and informative. Apologies in advance for not knowing how to use the spoiler to hide the longcat text of the article. 
 

From Andy Staples at The Athletic:
 

Now it gets awkward.

Whether Urban Meyer ever was a real option for Texas will drive fan site discussions for the foreseeable future, but we may not get any sort of on-the-record confirmation of whether anything actually happened for years.

It took three years for former Texas regent Tom Hicks to spill any beans about approaching agent Jimmy Sexton about Alabama coach Nick Saban in 2012 (a year before Mack Brown was ousted as the Longhorns’ coach). At the moment, both parties seem content to let everyone else talk about Meyer and Texas without Meyer or anyone from Texas acknowledging the other.

What seems clear at the moment is that Meyer is not an option to be the football coach at Texas in 2021, which might offer some comfort to current Texas coach Tom Herman if the Texas administration would acknowledge that Herman will coach the Longhorns in 2021. Athletic director Chris Del Conte has made clear he isn’t offering a definitive opinion on the direction of the football program until after the season. When that happens is a matter of discussion at the moment. Texas was supposed to wrap its regular season against Kansas on Saturday in Lawrence, but the Longhorns have paused football activity because of several COVID-19 positives on the team. The game might get played Saturday. It might get played Dec. 19. If the virus continues to be an issue, it might not get played.

So Del Conte faces a decision. Does he keep a coach the fan base has abandoned? Or does he write checks that could add up to $30 million to make a change that doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything because there is no Meyer, Nick Saban or Dabo Swinney in the candidate pool?

Texas finds itself in a position similar to the one rival Texas A&M faced three years ago. The Aggies fired Kevin Sumlin, whose record at the school made him one of the most successful coaches in the program’s history, and then-AD Scott Woodward had to land what he called a “rare-air” coach. Woodward determined that he needed a coach with a national title on his résumé, which meant one of four names. Meyer, Saban and Clemson’s Swinney weren’t going anywhere, which left Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher as the only option. “In contractual negotiations, you have leverage or you don’t,” Woodward told me for a story I wrote for Sports Illustrated. “I had zero leverage.” So Woodward offered a fully guaranteed, 10-year, $75 million contract and would have gone higher had Fisher not said yes. Woodward knew there was no Plan B.

The similarities between the situations end at the options. The acting coaches with national titles on their résumés are Fisher, LSU’s Ed Orgeron, Saban, Swinney, Kansas’ Les Miles and, of course, Brown. The first four aren’t moving. Miles isn’t getting hired by any program at that level. And Brown would be terribly complicated — plus he seems very happy back at North Carolina. Meyer, with three national titles between Florida and Ohio State on his résumé, apparently is happy behind the Fox Sports desk. This means if Del Conte wants to make a change, he’ll have to take an expensive leap of faith on someone who hasn’t ever reached the heights Texas donors and fans believe the Longhorns should reach. He would have to spend millions and then turn around and sell the coach to those donors and fans. Or he could keep a coach those fans don’t like anymore but who — based on his record so far — might offer a similar chance of success.

Neither situation is ideal, but at some point in the next few weeks, Del Conte will have to choose. And as he considers, he’ll probably also need to consider some of the institutional factors that have helped bring Texas to this point for the third time in seven years. So let’s examine the issues that will influence the decision.

The Coaches

Herman is finishing his fourth season in Austin, and though his tenure has been better than that of predecessor Charlie Strong, it has included only one Big 12 title game appearance. This year’s team had a chance to make the game but lost it when it blew a fourth-quarter lead against Iowa State and fell 23-20 on Nov. 27.

Herman was the toast of Austin following the 2018 season when the Longhorns reached the Big 12 title game and beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, but the backlash against Herman began last season when the Longhorns went 8-5. Losses to College Football Playoff participants by a combined 14 points were understandable, but the Longhorns also lost to TCU (one of three losses to the Horned Frogs in Herman’s four seasons), Iowa State and Baylor. The Longhorns have a significant advantage in the recruiting rankings against those three teams, but Texas hasn’t been able to translate a raw talent advantage into wins — especially against coaches who have proven player-development track records. TCU’s Gary Patterson, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and former Baylor and current Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule fit that description.

Firing Herman now would require a $15 million payoff because of the extension Del Conte gave Herman after the 2018 season. That figure likely would rise above $20 million when factoring in staff buyouts. And that’s before any buyout payments to a new coach’s old school.

Because we’re trying to figure out if changing coaches is worth the price tag, we probably should compare Herman to coaches who might be in the hunt for the Texas job if it opened. So let’s play the blind résumé game using the factors a coach at a program such as Texas should be judged upon.

Coach 1: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .692, Power 5 conference titles: 1, Median recruiting class rank: 11, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 1 (With at least one getting picked in the first round in 2021.)

Coach 2: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .571, Power 5 conference titles: 0, Median recruiting class rank: 5.5, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 0 (With one possibly going in the first in 2021.)

Coach 3: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .500, Power 5 conference titles: 0, Median recruiting class rank: 52, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 0

Coach 4: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .611, Power 5 conference titles: 1, Median recruiting class rank: 15, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 1 (With one possibly going in the first round in 2021.)

So do any of these stand out above the others? Maybe No. 1? What if I told you he has an $8 million buyout and lost to Oregon State and Cal in the past two weeks? Feel differently? No. 1 is Oregon’s Mario Cristobal, who has proven to be an excellent recruiter and roster builder. The question with Cristobal is whether he can avoid losing games his team should win. This has been one of Texas fans’ biggest gripes with Herman, and given the extremely high price, it could be more vexing if the Longhorns hire a coach who does exactly the same thing that currently infuriates the fan base.

No. 2 is Herman, who will cost $5.8 million next year if Texas retains him. One of the more frustrating facts about this Texas season also could be encouraging depending on your perspective. (Especially if your perspective is to try to save some money.)

Yes, the Longhorns have lost three games. But they’ve lost them by a combined 13 points. Turn either the Oklahoma game or the Iowa State game into a win, and Texas is playing for the Big 12 title. But Herman’s personality has turned off people in the Texas administration and donor base. I always say that it doesn’t matter if people like you if you’re 0-12 (You’re fired!) or 12-0 (You’re getting a raise!), but it matters a great deal if you’re in the — depending on the school — six- to eight-win range. Had Herman been the guy who has admittedly been humbled by this year all along, there might be no conversation. He’d definitely be coming back. But that’s not what happened those first three years, and here we are.

No. 3 is Iowa State’s Campbell. His record should be graded on a curve because he inherited a program that went 8-28 the three seasons before he arrived. His recruiting also should be graded on a curve because Iowa State does not have the access to players that Texas does. But this also would be the only question about Campbell. He has worked at Division III Mount Union, at Bowling Green, at Toledo and at Iowa State. He has never had to swim in the recruiting waters Texas must navigate. That doesn’t mean he can’t; it only means there is no data yet.

The other major issue with Campbell is he might not want the job. He probably isn’t leaving Iowa State unless it’s for a situation he considers ideal. For a guy from the Midwest, that might be Michigan should the Wolverines move on from Jim Harbaugh. Also, don’t be shocked if some NFL teams sniff around Campbell. The qualities that have made him fantastic for Iowa State — great evaluation, development and culture building — are the same ones that allowed Rhule to win at Temple and Baylor. Those qualities travel a lot better between levels of the sport than simply being able to collect five-star recruits. If anyone in college or the NFL wants Campbell, it’ll cost a cool $6 million to Iowa State.

No. 4 is Penn State’s James Franklin. It might be tough for Del Conte to sell a coach who lost his first five games this season and is having a tough recruiting cycle in his own state, but what Franklin has done at Penn State remains remarkable considering the situation he inherited. Plus, he did win nine games twice at Vanderbilt. A fun party game is to try to figure out what other college football coaches could do that. Spoiler alert: It’s a short list. Franklin would be expensive, though. On top of likely commanding a higher salary than Herman makes, it would cost $5 million to leave Penn State now. Plus, he already has a really good job.

The School

As Del Conte examines the situation, he also needs to consider the factors at Texas that could hinder any coach’s success. Mack Brown’s run at the turn of the century obscured the fact that Texas hasn’t been a year-in, year-out superpower for most of its history. Herman is only the third coach in the program’s history — Brown and Fred Akers are the others — to win 25 games in his first three years. And as great as Brown was from 1998-2009 (128-27), the Longhorns only won the Big 12 twice in the period.

For much of the program’s history, the problem has been one of alignment. Darrell Royal compared trying to unite the university’s various factions of administration, donors and football staffers to trying to put spilled BBs back in a box, and it could be argued that only he and Brown have done that — but unfortunately Brown couldn’t keep the BBs in the box.

To understand what great alignment does for a program, look north across the Red River to Oklahoma. From December 1998 to June 2017, that school had one president (David Boren), one athletic director (Joe Castiglione) and one head football coach (Bob Stoops). Boren and Stoops have since retired, but Boren was still in place when Castiglione tapped then-Oklahoma offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley to succeed Stoops. The alignment all the way up the chain has continued unabated. Since Stoops took over, the Sooners have won or shared the Big 12 title 13 times.

Meanwhile, Texas hasn’t been aligned since Brown began to falter in 2010. Athletic director DeLoss Dodds and president Bill Powers were busy pulling strings in conference realignment, and Dodds’ retirement in 2013 brought what might be the single most disastrous hire in Texas athletics history: Steve Patterson, who served a hellish 22-month tenure as athletic director beginning in November 2013. Patterson was supposed to streamline a bloated athletic department but only made it more dysfunctional.

Attorney Mike Perrin stepped in to steady the ship — he wound up firing Strong and hiring Herman — and Del Conte’s charge when he was hired in 2017 was to bring the Texas athletic department into the present. Since 2010, Texas has had three presidents (Powers, Greg Fenves, Jay Hartzell), four ADs (Dodds, Patterson, Perrin, Del Conte) and three head football coaches (Brown, Strong, Herman). That isn’t an environment conducive to alignment, and it should be cause to redirect some of the criticism leveled at Brown, Strong and Herman.

One of Del Conte’s biggest tasks has been combining the Texas men’s and women’s athletic departments, which were separate before his arrival. He also has had to raise money for football capital projects that Texas previously didn’t spend on despite frequently raking in more money than every other athletic program in the nation.

Since 2010, Oklahoma has spent about $235 million on football facilities. Clemson has spent about $165 million. Georgia has spent about $133 million. Texas has spent about $45 million. The current football facility was built in the late 1990s, and the only recent improvements have been a new locker room and a weight room renovation. Compare that to Oklahoma, which opened a 132,000 square-foot facility in 2017. Or compare it to Clemson, where the slide gets all the publicity, but the facility is far less ostentatious and far more functional in person.

Buildings don’t equal success, and they aren’t going to guarantee that the best recruits don’t go to Oklahoma or Alabama, but it makes sense that the school former AD Dodds once referred to as “The Joneses” should at least attempt to keep up with The Joneses. To that end, Del Conte has raised money for a $175 million project that will give the Longhorns essentially a new football facility prior to the 2021 season.

But who will sit in the new head coach’s office? Herman or someone else?

The Choice

One question is whether the runaway speculation about Herman’s job security has neutered his ability to recruit. The Longhorns lost a commitment in late October from top class of 2022 quarterback Quinn Ewers, who quickly flipped to Ohio State. That decision is tough to dispute. The last starting quarterback to leave Ohio State (Dwayne Haskins) was a first-rounder in 2019. The guy Haskins beat out in 2018 (Joe Burrow) transferred to LSU and became the No. 1 overall pick in 2020. Current Buckeyes QB Justin Fields is a likely first-rounder in 2021.

If Herman or any of the potential replacements were better at developing top draft picks, the decision might be easy. To compete for national titles, a program needs to consistently develop first-rounders. Texas hasn’t had a first-rounder since defensive tackle Malcom Brown went No. 32 to the Patriots in 2015. In same period, Alabama has produced 17 first-rounders. Clemson has produced 10. Georgia has produced eight. LSU has produced nine. Ohio State has produced 15. Oklahoma has produced five. That is how programs win consistently, and developing draft picks makes its own gravy by making programs more attractive to recruits.

The Longhorns’ best hope for a first-rounder this year is offensive tackle Sam Cosmi, who opted out of the team’s final two games last week. One selection probably wouldn’t get the Longhorns’ class of 2022 recruiting jump-started, but it would offer some positive momentum. Winning in 2021 would help as well. Much of the in-person evaluation that would have been done for the class of 2022 would have taken place at camps this past summer. If — and that remains a key word — coaches can go on the road and conduct camps in 2021, schools situated near large numbers of quality recruits likely will have an advantage if the world hasn’t returned completely to normal. So Texas should be in better position with nearby players. That could help Herman or someone else.

Del Conte also will need to decide how to handle some thorny issues going forward.

The situation involving alma mater “The Eyes of Texas” has calmed down, but it will need to be addressed. The team traditionally stays on the field after games to sing the alma mater, but during the summer a group of athletes — in response to social justice demonstrations across the country — asked the school to replace the song with a tune that didn’t have “racial undertones.” The group also asked that athletes no longer be required to sing the song. At issue is the song’s history. The phrase “the eyes of Texas” was coined by former Texas president William Prather, who was paraphrasing Robert E. Lee, who used the phrase “the eyes of The South are upon you” while president of Prather’s alma mater William & Mary. The song debuted at a minstrel show in 1903. Minstrel shows of the period frequently featured performances by people in blackface.

The edict from the administration was that no one would be forced to sing the song, but teams would be expected to stand respectfully while it is played. Controversy erupted after the loss to Oklahoma when a fan photo of quarterback Sam Ehlinger standing nearly alone as the band played The Eyes of Texas went viral. What the photo didn’t show was that the playing of the song took place nearly 10 minutes after the game had ended because of the presentation of the Golden Hat to the Sooners. That image produced a narrative that Herman had allowed his players to disrespect the song, which many alums — and importantly many donors — consider a cherished tradition.

This placed Herman in a no-win situation. He could have lost the locker room with a hardline stance on the song, and he already faced recruiting repercussions with opposing coaches asking recruits if they wanted to go to a school that would force them to stand for a song they considered racist. Meanwhile, anything but full support for the song angered some influential donors. Two groups had diametrically opposite opinions on the issue, and there simply was no way for Herman to thread the needle.

Del Conte needs to protect his coaches on this front. Whether he keeps Herman or seeks a different coach, he needs to formulate a plan for how the Longhorns will handle the song in 2021 and get out in front of the issue. If Texas makes a change, candidates will want to know how Del Conte intends to defuse this potential bomb. If Texas keeps Herman, he can’t be the face of any decision lest it harm recruiting more than rampant unchecked speculation about Meyer did.

Herman might still be able to help himself here. This has been a trying year, and all this talk of replacing him should leave him humbled. Maybe he could offer some assurances that he’ll be more pleasant to work with going forward. Sure, he can make $15 million if he gets fired. But he can make more than $20 million and potentially quite a bit more if he keeps his job.

When Auburn’s president and athletic director flew to meet with Louisville’s Bobby Petrino while Tommy Tuberville was still the Tigers’ coach in 2003, Tuberville survived the coup attempt, went 12-0 the next season and remained Auburn’s coach until the end of the 2008 season, when he got fired and collected a fat buyout. Herman knows all the stats that were rattled off earlier in this column. He can make a strong case that he’s the safer gamble. And if Herman can turn some of these close losses into wins next season, he could snatch all the leverage. Then he could either graciously take more money or strap the Longhorns over a barrel and laugh as the dollar figures rise.

Del Conte has to decide how he wants to place his bet. Does he wager less money that a coach who hasn’t quite met expectations will finally meet them? Or does he spend lavishly with the hope that a good-but-not-spectacular pool of candidates can produce the coach who finally can get all those damn BBs back in the box?

Herman has a little more time to convince Del Conte to take Option A. And as long as he doesn’t lose to Kansas, he might have a chance.

Edited by lonestarsooner
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Landomatic

Landomatic 3813

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, lonestarsooner said:

It get discussed here frequently but if you aren’t subscribing to the Athletic, you’re missing out in the best long form sports writing and reporting out there today. To that end, Andy Staples has a piece out today that encapsulates a bit of everything with the UT program, from the current coaching situation/search and a nod to the past state of the program that has led you to this point. It won’t be anything that many of you here don’t already know but it is well written and informative. Apologies in advance for not knowing how to use the spoiler to hide the longcat text of the article. 
 

From Andy Staples at The Athletic:
 

Now it gets awkward.

Whether Urban Meyer ever was a real option for Texas will drive fan site discussions for the foreseeable future, but we may not get any sort of on-the-record confirmation of whether anything actually happened for years.

It took three years for former Texas regent Tom Hicks to spill any beans about approaching agent Jimmy Sexton about Alabama coach Nick Saban in 2012 (a year before Mack Brown was ousted as the Longhorns’ coach). At the moment, both parties seem content to let everyone else talk about Meyer and Texas without Meyer or anyone from Texas acknowledging the other.

What seems clear at the moment is that Meyer is not an option to be the football coach at Texas in 2021, which might offer some comfort to current Texas coach Tom Herman if the Texas administration would acknowledge that Herman will coach the Longhorns in 2021. Athletic director Chris Del Conte has made clear he isn’t offering a definitive opinion on the direction of the football program until after the season. When that happens is a matter of discussion at the moment. Texas was supposed to wrap its regular season against Kansas on Saturday in Lawrence, but the Longhorns have paused football activity because of several COVID-19 positives on the team. The game might get played Saturday. It might get played Dec. 19. If the virus continues to be an issue, it might not get played.

So Del Conte faces a decision. Does he keep a coach the fan base has abandoned? Or does he write checks that could add up to $30 million to make a change that doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything because there is no Meyer, Nick Saban or Dabo Swinney in the candidate pool?

Texas finds itself in a position similar to the one rival Texas A&M faced three years ago. The Aggies fired Kevin Sumlin, whose record at the school made him one of the most successful coaches in the program’s history, and then-AD Scott Woodward had to land what he called a “rare-air” coach. Woodward determined that he needed a coach with a national title on his résumé, which meant one of four names. Meyer, Saban and Clemson’s Swinney weren’t going anywhere, which left Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher as the only option. “In contractual negotiations, you have leverage or you don’t,” Woodward told me for a story I wrote for Sports Illustrated. “I had zero leverage.” So Woodward offered a fully guaranteed, 10-year, $75 million contract and would have gone higher had Fisher not said yes. Woodward knew there was no Plan B.

The similarities between the situations end at the options. The acting coaches with national titles on their résumés are Fisher, LSU’s Ed Orgeron, Saban, Swinney, Kansas’ Les Miles and, of course, Brown. The first four aren’t moving. Miles isn’t getting hired by any program at that level. And Brown would be terribly complicated — plus he seems very happy back at North Carolina. Meyer, with three national titles between Florida and Ohio State on his résumé, apparently is happy behind the Fox Sports desk. This means if Del Conte wants to make a change, he’ll have to take an expensive leap of faith on someone who hasn’t ever reached the heights Texas donors and fans believe the Longhorns should reach. He would have to spend millions and then turn around and sell the coach to those donors and fans. Or he could keep a coach those fans don’t like anymore but who — based on his record so far — might offer a similar chance of success.

Neither situation is ideal, but at some point in the next few weeks, Del Conte will have to choose. And as he considers, he’ll probably also need to consider some of the institutional factors that have helped bring Texas to this point for the third time in seven years. So let’s examine the issues that will influence the decision.

The Coaches

Herman is finishing his fourth season in Austin, and though his tenure has been better than that of predecessor Charlie Strong, it has included only one Big 12 title game appearance. This year’s team had a chance to make the game but lost it when it blew a fourth-quarter lead against Iowa State and fell 23-20 on Nov. 27.

Herman was the toast of Austin following the 2018 season when the Longhorns reached the Big 12 title game and beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, but the backlash against Herman began last season when the Longhorns went 8-5. Losses to College Football Playoff participants by a combined 14 points were understandable, but the Longhorns also lost to TCU (one of three losses to the Horned Frogs in Herman’s four seasons), Iowa State and Baylor. The Longhorns have a significant advantage in the recruiting rankings against those three teams, but Texas hasn’t been able to translate a raw talent advantage into wins — especially against coaches who have proven player-development track records. TCU’s Gary Patterson, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and former Baylor and current Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule fit that description.

Firing Herman now would require a $15 million payoff because of the extension Del Conte gave Herman after the 2018 season. That figure likely would rise above $20 million when factoring in staff buyouts. And that’s before any buyout payments to a new coach’s old school.

Because we’re trying to figure out if changing coaches is worth the price tag, we probably should compare Herman to coaches who might be in the hunt for the Texas job if it opened. So let’s play the blind résumé game using the factors a coach at a program such as Texas should be judged upon.

Coach 1: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .692, Power 5 conference titles: 1, Median recruiting class rank: 11, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 1 (With at least one getting picked in the first round in 2021.)

Coach 2: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .571, Power 5 conference titles: 0, Median recruiting class rank: 5.5, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 0 (With one possibly going in the first in 2021.)

Coach 3: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .500, Power 5 conference titles: 0, Median recruiting class rank: 52, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 0

Coach 4: Winning percentage against Power 5 teams at current job: .611, Power 5 conference titles: 1, Median recruiting class rank: 15, First-round draft picks coached at current job: 1 (With one possibly going in the first round in 2021.)

So do any of these stand out above the others? Maybe No. 1? What if I told you he has an $8 million buyout and lost to Oregon State and Cal in the past two weeks? Feel differently? No. 1 is Oregon’s Mario Cristobal, who has proven to be an excellent recruiter and roster builder. The question with Cristobal is whether he can avoid losing games his team should win. This has been one of Texas fans’ biggest gripes with Herman, and given the extremely high price, it could be more vexing if the Longhorns hire a coach who does exactly the same thing that currently infuriates the fan base.

No. 2 is Herman, who will cost $5.8 million next year if Texas retains him. One of the more frustrating facts about this Texas season also could be encouraging depending on your perspective. (Especially if your perspective is to try to save some money.)

Yes, the Longhorns have lost three games. But they’ve lost them by a combined 13 points. Turn either the Oklahoma game or the Iowa State game into a win, and Texas is playing for the Big 12 title. But Herman’s personality has turned off people in the Texas administration and donor base. I always say that it doesn’t matter if people like you if you’re 0-12 (You’re fired!) or 12-0 (You’re getting a raise!), but it matters a great deal if you’re in the — depending on the school — six- to eight-win range. Had Herman been the guy who has admittedly been humbled by this year all along, there might be no conversation. He’d definitely be coming back. But that’s not what happened those first three years, and here we are.

No. 3 is Iowa State’s Campbell. His record should be graded on a curve because he inherited a program that went 8-28 the three seasons before he arrived. His recruiting also should be graded on a curve because Iowa State does not have the access to players that Texas does. But this also would be the only question about Campbell. He has worked at Division III Mount Union, at Bowling Green, at Toledo and at Iowa State. He has never had to swim in the recruiting waters Texas must navigate. That doesn’t mean he can’t; it only means there is no data yet.

The other major issue with Campbell is he might not want the job. He probably isn’t leaving Iowa State unless it’s for a situation he considers ideal. For a guy from the Midwest, that might be Michigan should the Wolverines move on from Jim Harbaugh. Also, don’t be shocked if some NFL teams sniff around Campbell. The qualities that have made him fantastic for Iowa State — great evaluation, development and culture building — are the same ones that allowed Rhule to win at Temple and Baylor. Those qualities travel a lot better between levels of the sport than simply being able to collect five-star recruits. If anyone in college or the NFL wants Campbell, it’ll cost a cool $6 million to Iowa State.

No. 4 is Penn State’s James Franklin. It might be tough for Del Conte to sell a coach who lost his first five games this season and is having a tough recruiting cycle in his own state, but what Franklin has done at Penn State remains remarkable considering the situation he inherited. Plus, he did win nine games twice at Vanderbilt. A fun party game is to try to figure out what other college football coaches could do that. Spoiler alert: It’s a short list. Franklin would be expensive, though. On top of likely commanding a higher salary than Herman makes, it would cost $5 million to leave Penn State now. Plus, he already has a really good job.

The School

As Del Conte examines the situation, he also needs to consider the factors at Texas that could hinder any coach’s success. Mack Brown’s run at the turn of the century obscured the fact that Texas hasn’t been a year-in, year-out superpower for most of its history. Herman is only the third coach in the program’s history — Brown and Fred Akers are the others — to win 25 games in his first three years. And as great as Brown was from 1998-2009 (128-27), the Longhorns only won the Big 12 twice in the period.

For much of the program’s history, the problem has been one of alignment. Darrell Royal compared trying to unite the university’s various factions of administration, donors and football staffers to trying to put spilled BBs back in a box, and it could be argued that only he and Brown have done that — but unfortunately Brown couldn’t keep the BBs in the box.

To understand what great alignment does for a program, look north across the Red River to Oklahoma. From December 1998 to June 2017, that school had one president (David Boren), one athletic director (Joe Castiglione) and one head football coach (Bob Stoops). Boren and Stoops have since retired, but Boren was still in place when Castiglione tapped then-Oklahoma offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley to succeed Stoops. The alignment all the way up the chain has continued unabated. Since Stoops took over, the Sooners have won or shared the Big 12 title 13 times.

Meanwhile, Texas hasn’t been aligned since Brown began to falter in 2010. Athletic director DeLoss Dodds and president Bill Powers were busy pulling strings in conference realignment, and Dodds’ retirement in 2013 brought what might be the single most disastrous hire in Texas athletics history: Steve Patterson, who served a hellish 22-month tenure as athletic director beginning in November 2013. Patterson was supposed to streamline a bloated athletic department but only made it more dysfunctional.

Attorney Mike Perrin stepped in to steady the ship — he wound up firing Strong and hiring Herman — and Del Conte’s charge when he was hired in 2017 was to bring the Texas athletic department into the present. Since 2010, Texas has had three presidents (Powers, Greg Fenves, Jay Hartzell), four ADs (Dodds, Patterson, Perrin, Del Conte) and three head football coaches (Brown, Strong, Herman). That isn’t an environment conducive to alignment, and it should be cause to redirect some of the criticism leveled at Brown, Strong and Herman.

One of Del Conte’s biggest tasks has been combining the Texas men’s and women’s athletic departments, which were separate before his arrival. He also has had to raise money for football capital projects that Texas previously didn’t spend on despite frequently raking in more money than every other athletic program in the nation.

Since 2010, Oklahoma has spent about $235 million on football facilities. Clemson has spent about $165 million. Georgia has spent about $133 million. Texas has spent about $45 million. The current football facility was built in the late 1990s, and the only recent improvements have been a new locker room and a weight room renovation. Compare that to Oklahoma, which opened a 132,000 square-foot facility in 2017. Or compare it to Clemson, where the slide gets all the publicity, but the facility is far less ostentatious and far more functional in person.

Buildings don’t equal success, and they aren’t going to guarantee that the best recruits don’t go to Oklahoma or Alabama, but it makes sense that the school former AD Dodds once referred to as “The Joneses” should at least attempt to keep up with The Joneses. To that end, Del Conte has raised money for a $175 million project that will give the Longhorns essentially a new football facility prior to the 2021 season.

But who will sit in the new head coach’s office? Herman or someone else?

The Choice

One question is whether the runaway speculation about Herman’s job security has neutered his ability to recruit. The Longhorns lost a commitment in late October from top class of 2022 quarterback Quinn Ewers, who quickly flipped to Ohio State. That decision is tough to dispute. The last starting quarterback to leave Ohio State (Dwayne Haskins) was a first-rounder in 2019. The guy Haskins beat out in 2018 (Joe Burrow) transferred to LSU and became the No. 1 overall pick in 2020. Current Buckeyes QB Justin Fields is a likely first-rounder in 2021.

If Herman or any of the potential replacements were better at developing top draft picks, the decision might be easy. To compete for national titles, a program needs to consistently develop first-rounders. Texas hasn’t had a first-rounder since defensive tackle Malcom Brown went No. 32 to the Patriots in 2015. In same period, Alabama has produced 17 first-rounders. Clemson has produced 10. Georgia has produced eight. LSU has produced nine. Ohio State has produced 15. Oklahoma has produced five. That is how programs win consistently, and developing draft picks makes its own gravy by making programs more attractive to recruits.

The Longhorns’ best hope for a first-rounder this year is offensive tackle Sam Cosmi, who opted out of the team’s final two games last week. One selection probably wouldn’t get the Longhorns’ class of 2022 recruiting jump-started, but it would offer some positive momentum. Winning in 2021 would help as well. Much of the in-person evaluation that would have been done for the class of 2022 would have taken place at camps this past summer. If — and that remains a key word — coaches can go on the road and conduct camps in 2021, schools situated near large numbers of quality recruits likely will have an advantage if the world hasn’t returned completely to normal. So Texas should be in better position with nearby players. That could help Herman or someone else.

Del Conte also will need to decide how to handle some thorny issues going forward.

The situation involving alma mater “The Eyes of Texas” has calmed down, but it will need to be addressed. The team traditionally stays on the field after games to sing the alma mater, but during the summer a group of athletes — in response to social justice demonstrations across the country — asked the school to replace the song with a tune that didn’t have “racial undertones.” The group also asked that athletes no longer be required to sing the song. At issue is the song’s history. The phrase “the eyes of Texas” was coined by former Texas president William Prather, who was paraphrasing Robert E. Lee, who used the phrase “the eyes of The South are upon you” while president of Prather’s alma mater William & Mary. The song debuted at a minstrel show in 1903. Minstrel shows of the period frequently featured performances by people in blackface.

The edict from the administration was that no one would be forced to sing the song, but teams would be expected to stand respectfully while it is played. Controversy erupted after the loss to Oklahoma when a fan photo of quarterback Sam Ehlinger standing nearly alone as the band played The Eyes of Texas went viral. What the photo didn’t show was that the playing of the song took place nearly 10 minutes after the game had ended because of the presentation of the Golden Hat to the Sooners. That image produced a narrative that Herman had allowed his players to disrespect the song, which many alums — and importantly many donors — consider a cherished tradition.

This placed Herman in a no-win situation. He could have lost the locker room with a hardline stance on the song, and he already faced recruiting repercussions with opposing coaches asking recruits if they wanted to go to a school that would force them to stand for a song they considered racist. Meanwhile, anything but full support for the song angered some influential donors. Two groups had diametrically opposite opinions on the issue, and there simply was no way for Herman to thread the needle.

Del Conte needs to protect his coaches on this front. Whether he keeps Herman or seeks a different coach, he needs to formulate a plan for how the Longhorns will handle the song in 2021 and get out in front of the issue. If Texas makes a change, candidates will want to know how Del Conte intends to defuse this potential bomb. If Texas keeps Herman, he can’t be the face of any decision lest it harm recruiting more than rampant unchecked speculation about Meyer did.

Herman might still be able to help himself here. This has been a trying year, and all this talk of replacing him should leave him humbled. Maybe he could offer some assurances that he’ll be more pleasant to work with going forward. Sure, he can make $15 million if he gets fired. But he can make more than $20 million and potentially quite a bit more if he keeps his job.

When Auburn’s president and athletic director flew to meet with Louisville’s Bobby Petrino while Tommy Tuberville was still the Tigers’ coach in 2003, Tuberville survived the coup attempt, went 12-0 the next season and remained Auburn’s coach until the end of the 2008 season, when he got fired and collected a fat buyout. Herman knows all the stats that were rattled off earlier in this column. He can make a strong case that he’s the safer gamble. And if Herman can turn some of these close losses into wins next season, he could snatch all the leverage. Then he could either graciously take more money or strap the Longhorns over a barrel and laugh as the dollar figures rise.

Del Conte has to decide how he wants to place his bet. Does he wager less money that a coach who hasn’t quite met expectations will finally meet them? Or does he spend lavishly with the hope that a good-but-not-spectacular pool of candidates can produce the coach who finally can get all those damn BBs back in the box?

Herman has a little more time to convince Del Conte to take Option A. And as long as he doesn’t lose to Kansas, he might have a chance.

tl;dr

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Bill Lumbergh

Bill Lumbergh 7171

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Hahahahahaha. Fucking page 505 is outstanding. Watching the two factions develop on this thread - the believers versus the rest of us working with a smidge of sanity - holy fuck this could really go somewhere in terms of hilarity. 
The line between actual believers and those sarcastically playing along is too blurred for me to interpret at this point.

Or maybe I'm just hoping a lot of the outrageous stuff getting posted right now is sarcastic.
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WinningIsHard

WinningIsHard 4032

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I actually think Texas hasn’t done shit in regards to leaking information or ruining our chances with a coach. CDC, Hartzell, or Urban haven’t said a fucking thing that proves there was even a search going on. Any asshole with a blog can say herman is on the hot seat and Meyer wants his job, click post and that shit will take off like wild fire. No real news is good news. I could be naive though and just hoping for the best. 

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