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Urban Meyer or bust

BurntOrange&White

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Posted by Rimbo,

i was told to post this by my source:    hey @futureman...

Keep up

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Posted by Nicole44,

—————— ‘‘Twas the night before Christmas when all thru the thirsty 40, not a whiff of credible news, what happened to that gal port o potty? The BDE was really hung by the firepit with flare. Surlies guzzling whisky/whiskey waiting for Urban to show up there.  The 9.95’ers were restless spewing their usual nonsense and dread while visions of desperate subscribers twerked in their heads. Nightcrew rocking the hope while the Daycrew rocking the clap, Eltife’s already gathered t

A Christmas Tale worth telling!

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Just had to hop on Surly to say that I have never seen so many people setting themselves up for such a huge letdown! I love it!!

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Can everyone plz retweet this  

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quigley

quigley 1565

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Actually presidents see sports as a big donor driver. Football wins the money comes in.

True, but there is risk here, and the risk great is great and the benefit is marginal. That's why I posted the relative revenue streams of science and research. Increase donations by $100m because you win a football natl title an you'll equal 5% of your research income.

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 41646

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Just now, quigley said:

True, but there is risk here, and the risk great is great and the benefit is marginal. That's why I posted the relative revenue streams of science and research. Increase donations by $100m because you win a football natl title an you'll equal 5% of your research income.

Look at the donations Alabama has coming in because of football it’s literally helping to improve their academic side so much. 

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10761

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1 minute ago, quigley said:

True, but there is risk here, and the risk great is great and the benefit is marginal. That's why I posted the relative revenue streams of science and research. Increase donations by $100m because you win a football natl title an you'll equal 5% of your research income.

True, but works both ways, make a bad hire and drop $100m....

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Landomatic

Landomatic 3813

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39 minutes ago, Apex73 said:

The only 2 coaches in the programs history that have won national titles here didn't have one before we hired them so I'm not sure  why that's your number one metric.  I personally would like to have Matt Campbell and have been pushing for that for awhile.

Was there a multi national championship winning coach available at the time they were hired?  And our admin just decided, fuck betting on the sure thing, let’s roll the dice on a long shot instead?

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wood

wood 11747

Posted
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7 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Pos rep.   Baseball analytics are ruining everything from other sports to political polling.  Virtually everything else in the world that is of interest to anyone is much more dynamic than baseball and much less suited for robotically using a simple statistical model as a predictive tool that you slavishly follow for decision making.  It’s like some blackjack card counter thinking he can translate that into a foolproof system for sports betting or the stock market.  

Yep. They've pretty much ruined motorsport, too. 

5 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Analytics also ruined the music industry. It’s why everything’ sounds the same 

So it's not just me? I feel sorry for kids today. All the music sounds the same. Nothing crazy or different. Nothing has a fucking soul. It's sad.

2 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I agree with this. Or at least, football strategy analytics are immature and a long way from being applied properly. 

Baseball is a different animal. At the core of the game, there is one pitcher and one hitter. The pitcher is trying to prevent the hitter from hitting the ball hard. The hitter is trying to hit the ball hard. This almost never changes - hell, the situations in which this isn't the strategy (intentional walks, bunts) are almost extinct now. Neither the pitcher nor the hitter relies on anybody else to accomplish his goal. The game situation doesn't impact his goal. Because every pitch is minimally impacted by variables beyond the pitcher and the hitter, and because their objectives don't change based on game situations, the data is pretty straightforward and broadly applicable. (And yes, I know there is strategy based on how to pitch certain hitters, when to swing on 3-0, etc - but by and large, the sample sizes are so big that this degree of nuance doesn't change the analysis.)

Football isn't remotely like that. "Should I go for it on 4th and 1" can't be applied to all situations uniformly. Just this one decision depends on the game situation - how much time is left, what's the score, etc - and personnel considerations - is my line getting its ass kicked, is my QB accurate, can my receivers be counted on to catch the ball in traffic, who's on the other side, etc. And then you have to combine the decision with the appropriate play call, which also carries all of these variables. 

So - it seems impossibly simplistic to throw a blanket "the analytics say..." statement for football, at least to the level of this type of decision making. There are simply too many variables and too much nuance to prepare "analytics" based decisions for every plausible situation. 

TL;DR - Herman is full of shit with his "analytics" garbage, and I doubt he understands any of it anyway at any meaningful level. 

Even in baseball, analytics should really just be another tool in the manager's toolbox, not a hard and fast doctrine that makes every decision for you. And I think some people are finally coming around to that realization. A good example is bunting. Analaytics basically says never bunt, even in situations that are just screaming for a bunt ... like starting extra innings with a runner on 2nd and no outs. You get a run there and you win the game, esp if you're the home team and you held the other team in the top half of the inning. Crazy AF to not bunt there, yet we saw it over and over, when a bunt would have won the game on what would have been a sac fly from a following batter.

The best use of analytics in baseball is in player evaluation and building your roster, imho. You are what you produce. Your draft status shouldn't hinge on your height, or how pretty your swing is, or how hot your girlfriend is. Get the people who can actually hit the fucking baseball, or can pitch, etc.  I loved Moneyball, and I really do agree with the way it changed the way players are evaluated in baseball ... but I hate the way analytics have been overused in day to day in-game strategy and tactics.

1 hour ago, Nicole44 said:

anyway, analytics are fine in the hands of a HC that knows how to use them. And also employs their expertise (be it on offense or defense) additionally.

Exactly. Analytics are a great birds-eye view of the game in general, but shouldn't rule every decision in every situation. Good coaches and managers know much more than can be accounted for in analytics and know when is the best time to go with them vs just using them to help advise their strategy, like having another assistant coach on the bench.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49908

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17 minutes ago, PassiveAggressiveCoach said:

Matt Campbell is Herman 2.0 without the mensa

Yeah, I really believe Campbell is at a great place for his career right now.  He likes the smaller college town setting for his family, is still learning how to be a Head Coach, and at times still struggles with his temper on the sidelines. 

Right now, I believe Campbell would really struggle with the bright lights and media scrutiny at TEXAS.  He seems like a great fit at Iowa State for now, and could really benefit from a few more years of seasoning before moving on to a higher level job somewhere in the B10 or back east.

If he stays at Iowa State, he could be revered just like Fatty at ToadU...

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dcar00

dcar00 14899

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6 minutes ago, ShowMeALoss said:

These examples are few and far between. For every one of these examples, there are too many more that failed. Our admins haven't shown the ability to pick those hidden gems in decades, and it's not going to change now. OU promoted from within when they were a well oiled machine. Notre Dame hired a proven coach from a small program and yet it took him a while to get it going. Kirby hasn't won shit despite recruiting gangbusters. I think we are aiming a bit higher.

Kelly was on the hot seat and then made the NC game in his 3rd year so they stuck with him. they also play a pretty tough schedule back then. he had also improved/built a G5 program twice.

Urban had done it twice. 

Stoops and Dabo are outliers

the biggest problem with both or our hires is they just brought their G5 staff with them.  we need to prevent that mistake from being repeated.

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Funk Doctor Spock

Funk Doctor Spock 13120

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12 hours ago, Augustus said:
  Hide contents

 

Two problems stuck out pretty obviously.

The first is that he called games like he was coaching in the NFL, where games are a lot shorter and final scores are regularly much lower.  If you can move the chains consistently in full blown conservative mode, it works pretty well.  Jimbo actually does this pretty effectively.  Sherman's teams could not, and the frustrating thing is that in 2010 and 2011, his offenses were really good running up tempo.

Secondly, the teams were horrifically out of shape.  They got gassed quickly and permanently against the HUNH offenses in the Big 12.

Points one and two combined to give us the year of 2nd half blown leads in 2011.   It was brutal.  Like a train coming toward you at relatively low speed but you've got your foot stuck in the tracks and can't get out of the way.  Eventually... splat.

He did recruit surprisingly well and left Sumlin a cornucopia of talent on offense.  In 2012, when Malcom Kennedy was on the field, every player on that offense was eventually either drafted or made a team as an UDFA.  He even recruited a basketball player to play wide receiver, who's now a badass with Tampa Bay.

It was fun watching the Air Raid with NFL talent at every position and a truly mobile QB.

 

Spoilered because off-topic/thread derail

I will forever be grateful for him finding Mike Evans. Dude has been the most solid wr since being drafted. People overlook him because of others, and I don't know why. He's never had a season with less than 1000 yards. This year will be his first, I believe. 

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quigley

quigley 1565

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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Look at the donations Alabama has coming in because of football it’s literally helping to improve their academic side so much. 

That's good marketing by the sports side. Look at the numbers.

If there is a benefit, it's improved recruitment of students. This is more relevant to private, regional schools (eg, Liberty) who have an elastic applicant pool and low name recognition. Georgetown Univ is the classic example of this. Their application numbers tripled (or more) after they started competing for basketball national championships in the 1980s.

For Bama, I don't know the numbers. Their academic side will be somewhat weaker than UT, but they will have reached the ceiling of dollars to be donated to sports after their run of sustained football success.

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Nicole44

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2 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, I really believe Campbell is at a great place for his career right now.  He likes the smaller college town setting for his family, is still learning how to be a Head Coach, and at times still struggles with his temper on the sidelines. 

Right now, I believe Campbell would really struggle with the bright lights and media scrutiny at TEXAS.  He seems like a great fit at Iowa State for now, and could really benefit from a few more years of seasoning before moving on to a higher level job somewhere in the B10 or back east.

If he stays at Iowa State, he could be revered just like Fatty at ToadU...

I feel the same. His name is being mentioned a lot and for good reason. But I hope he sticks with what he is building at Iowa State. I think in a few years they may be a force if he stays. Their QB after Purdy looks like he could be crazy good. That massive Dutch kid that’s broken all the records pretty much in the state in high school. I would at least like Campbell to stay long enough to see what they have in that kid.

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MirrOlure

MirrOlure 15185

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These examples are few and far between. For every one of these examples, there are too many more that failed. Our admins haven't shown the ability to pick those hidden gems in decades, and it's not going to change now. OU promoted from within when they were a well oiled machine. Notre Dame hired a proven coach from a small program and yet it took him a while to get it going. Kirby hasn't won shit despite recruiting gangbusters. I think we are aiming a bit higher.

Plausibly, that’s because great coaches are few and far between. There are only three categories of great coaches:

1. Those that were great,
2. Those that are great,
3. Those that will be great

If you can’t get a #2, then try to catch #3 lightning in a bottle.
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wood

wood 11747

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1 hour ago, Apex73 said:

Do I seriously need to explain to you the difference between a college kid who makes mistakes and drives drunk is a completely different thing than having a team with over 31 arrests in 5 years and not for "boys being boys" kind of shenanigans.  I mean he had Aaron Hernandez on his team.  Then covered up domestic abuse from one of his coaches at his next stop.  I'm not saying we didn't have a few problems here and there under Mack but comparing these 2 coaches morally is ridiculous.

So you're comparing the misadventures just one guy at Texas to all the collective bad things that happened under Meyer at every stop, when we all know a whole lot more shit was going on than just Sergio Kindle's crazy bullshit. You might have a point if it were as simple as that, if Texas had been even remotely close to squeaky clean under even just Mack. But we weren't even close, and you know it, and your point is fucking stupid. We haven't been clean under Herman. Not under Mack (not just players, but on his coaching staff as well). Not under Royal. Not Fred. Not McWilliams. Probably the cleanest we've been in my lifetime was under Charlie or maybe Mackovick, afaik, and we all saw how they turned out.

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quigley

quigley 1565

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

which exactly the reason we don't need to settle.

That's the wrong interpretation.

UT made bad hires which led to poor performance. Yet, they still lead the nation in revenue.

This means that football performance doesn't impact revenue based on available data at UT.

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Horn80

Horn80 6313

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Nice post until you got to Deloss.  Deloss could run the media and conference games pretty well, but he was shit at hiring coaches.

Agree with your about DeLoss hiring coaches.  My perception is after he hired Bob Weltlich, DeLoss was shoved out of the way.

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Zeus

Zeus 6753

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8 minutes ago, PassiveAggressiveCoach said:

Anyone tracking flights or stories from real estate agents?  That's how we will confirm this. 

Urban legend just took a flight from Fox studios strait to DKR direct and bought a house across the street!

Seriously though I was wondering this while working at UT on dell medical school... What the heck is this house?

Screenshot-20201128-133816.jpg

Anybody know what this random vacant house is doing right here?

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quigley

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4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

https://www.tuscaloosanews.com/news/20190909/university-of-alabama-upgrades-move-forward-with-donations

 

https://www.al.com/news/g66l-2019/06/1d26b0d7ba6619/what-to-know-about-every-university-of-alabama-construction-project-happening-summer-2019.html

 

Is this is to rebut my assertions? If so, here's what I got from these two links:

The first link shows that the donated money is largely (or all even?) going to sports, which doesn't benefit most of the student body.

The second links shows that U of A contributes to Greek house construction!?! It doesn't indicate the funding source for the projects (ie, donations, tuition, bonds, etc).

 

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quigley

quigley 1565

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7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

But it is effecting donations from donors. 

Please see my earlier posts (to avoid further cluttering this thread). To sum it up, these are small numbers compared to the big revenue streams for the UT.

I'm out on this topic.

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Scooter Monzingo

Scooter Monzingo 821

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20 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I feel the same. His name is being mentioned a lot and for good reason. But I hope he sticks with what he is building at Iowa State. I think in a few years they may be a force if he stays. Their QB after Purdy looks like he could be crazy good. That massive Dutch kid that’s broken all the records pretty much in the state in high school. I would at least like Campbell to stay long enough to see what they have in that kid.

Doesn’t Iowa State have a lot of seniors?

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EE2B

EE2B 1569

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Urban legend just took a flight from Fox studios strait to DKR direct and bought a house across the street!
Seriously though I was wondering this while working at UT on dell medical school... What the heck is this house?
Screenshot-20201128-133816.jpg
Anybody know what this random vacant house is doing right here?

Arthur P Watson house?
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Scooter Monzingo

Scooter Monzingo 821

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6 minutes ago, quigley said:

 

Is this is to rebut my assertions? If so, here's what I got from these two links:

The first link shows that the donated money is largely (or all even?) going to sports, which doesn't benefit most of the student body.

The second links shows that U of A contributes to Greek house construction!?! It doesn't indicate the funding source for the projects (ie, donations, tuition, bonds, etc).

 

Lutz, you think all the Alabama money is on their books? Bless your heart...

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Nicole44

Nicole44 22206

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1 minute ago, Scooter Monzingo said:

Doesn’t Iowa State have a lot of seniors?

Not sure. (I always think the movie Idiocracy when I say that.) probably. But have you seen the Dutch kid? All our Iowa State poster peeps have been oddly silent since their win yesterday. Hope they didn’t pass out in the cornfields. 

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UncleBuck

UncleBuck 6455

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Really?  How many of our players do you think have a realistic shot at the NFL?  Even if we start getting that level of talent on the regular, at the most it's gonna be like 10-15% percent of the team.  It just amazes me how everyone's standard's change when we aren't winning games.   We should be doing our homework and finding a coach that checks all the boxes we want not settling for someone who will almost certainly put a giant stain on the program's integrity.  

Eh nevermind
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Rimbo

Rimbo 26852

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2 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Analytics are just great in the hands of great HC. Listening to Urban talk about what Bama will be missing without Saban on the field. (COVID) Sagan’s expertise is on defense and so in a situational sense that’s what they will be “missing” so to speak even though Saban isn’t calling the plays and is more of a game manager HC. UM said his expertise was on offense and so in certain situations (4th down etc) that’s when he would be consulted in the games. What do we do here? Then they talked about Texas and Iowa State. UM said it was a shame (posted this in the other thread) that a great player like Sam had his last play at home be a sack. Quoted Breece Hall’s remark about it being five star culture vs five star players. Said it’s hard to bet against Iowa State in the Big 12 right now. That they have a winning mentality—think they won’t be beat then they can’t be beat. 
 

anyway, analytics are fine in the hands of a HC that knows how to use them. And also employs their expertise (be it on offense or defense) additionally.

 

The real reason analytics work on baseball is that there is much more data.

The typical batter goes to plate 3-4 times in a game (3 at a minimum). The typical pitcher pitches about 20 pitches per game. There's 162 games in a season. All this for scores that are typically in single digits. One pitch cannot make more than a 4-run difference in a game. So there's a mountain of data that, half a season in, can be analyzed and actual statistical meaning can come from it.

In football, you only get 16 games, and at most 120 plays total. Of those, one play... one blown assignment out of 22 players on the field... can totally reverse the score. So where baseball is played within the realm of statistical probability, football games are won and lost on individual plays that exist outside the realm of statistics, and there are so few statistics that they don't become meaningful before the season ends.

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MrBig

MrBig 5602

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1 minute ago, Nicole44 said:

I wish I had a horse that could do that. (If you have ever seen the movie Rustlers Rhapsody there is a part where his horse dances and it’s awesome)

Well you could do that—based on the analytics—if your horse could jump high enough, the rider was the correct weight, the rope was the appropriate length. But the likelihood of your success would be the same as converting a fake punt on 4th and 8 even if you both practiced it for two weeks.

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ConferenceRoom

ConferenceRoom 6210

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all one reporter would have to do, after analytics is blamed for a shitty decision, is ask about the 3 or 4 other situations in the game where he went against the analytics. Take the fake punt for instance.  Is going for it on 4th and 8 from ISU's 48 the right analytic call?
I thought it was funny he said he thought about it.  if you are doing analytics you don't think about it at all and if you don't follow the analytics all the time then you have just screwed up the analytics.  the whole thing is bullshit.
I can see it now.  
OC coach to Herman after press conf - "did they ask you about the 4th and 1?"
Herman "yeah"
OC "what'd you say?"
Herman "I told them it was analytics"
Both let out a hearty laugh as they sip some  Macallan 25


I would be absolutely shocked if Herman had such good taste.
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Nicole44

Nicole44 22206

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4 minutes ago, MrBig said:

Well you could do that—based on the analytics—if your horse could jump high enough, the rider was the correct weight, the rope was the appropriate length. But the likelihood of your success would be the same as converting a fake punt on 4th and 8 even if you both practiced it for two weeks.

The horse is real though. Which is crazy. Some Russian guy and his horse. This season was just a dream. When I wake up we will have a better coach that doesn’t do shit like that. We led for 58 minutes in that game. Tom is just an illusion. When I wake up from this decade long nightmare he will be gone. And I will find a way to steal that guy’s horse because if a horse can do that he needs to be  in America and not Russia damnit! Murica! Fuck ya! 

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BillyGoatHill

BillyGoatHill 4420

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1 hour ago, Hank_Hill said:

He’s beat Herman 2.0 times though 

Along with Gundy, Blinkin', and Fatterson.....

58 minutes ago, PassiveAggressiveCoach said:

So has Maryland

Apparently Winning is hard...

Mensa and his binder against.... 

I State 2-2,

Okie Lite 2-2,

Frog 1-3,

BlowU 1-4

Fire this arrogant dumbfuck yesterday.

 

Fuck Outta Here No Way GIF by Desus & Mero

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