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2020 astros offseason

elfenix

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Eastwood
Eastwood

Here's the thing that makes me absolutely livid about this... Cheating happens all the time in baseball. At all levels. All levels. The MLB itself cheats the game by juicing the ball. Players juiced t

Asithappens
Asithappens

It's not the end, I agree. The Astros are still sacks of giant shit, though.  Shame on them.

Asithappens
Asithappens

Very sad to see that the Astros are basically dipshit cheaters from the top down. Hey, at least the Black Sox are happy that someone else is wearing their crown of infamy.    

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54217

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Saint Tacky said:

My hope is that by "speak up" he means that a player with knowledge of one or more other franchises systematically stealing signs in similar fashion outs them and the details are confirmed by other players in the know so as to spread the focus from just the Astros.

Yeah, that's really going to happen, given the way Mike Fiers has been treated. 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76932

Posted
Posted

Dusty Baker on the most recent Astroline. damn good listen

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cDovL21sYi5tbGIuY29tL2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdC9ob3VfcG9kY2FzdF9yc3MueG1s&episode=aHR0cHM6Ly9yc3MuYXJ0MTkuY29tL2VwaXNvZGVzLzA3YjQ2YWQ0LTQwMDMtNDMxNC04MzBmLTE3YjQ3OTkzMTQ4OC5tcDM&ved=0CAQQzsICahcKEwiY9KfApfDnAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQBg&hl=en

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32859

Posted
Posted (edited)

Also, the HBP thing is dumb but if there's actually anything to it then the Astros need to handle it themselves. In the season opening series if an Astro gets hit then the opponent's leadoff batter of the next half-inning needs to take a fastball right square in the middle of the back. That will force the league office to step in. Sure it's endangering a player or whatever but if the league doesn't say something then the entire Astros roster is in the same kind of danger.

Apologies for making a point I'm sure has already been said around here.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Limp Brisket said:

Javier looking good against the Nats.

He's a very interesting prospect.  Low arm slot but he apparently gets a lot of his vertical movement with his average velo fastball.  If he had better command I would be very high on him.  

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Mez2

Mez2 4023

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Posted

The Astros’ system has been gutted not just by trades, but by the inevitable results of trying to draft without scouts, which has filled the system with a lot of very low-ceiling college performers. The strength here now is the international class, including a slew of hard-throwing right-handers from Latin America.

The Top 10

1. Forrest Whitley, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 14)

From the Top 100: Whitley will pitch at 22 for all of 2020, yet it seems like there are already people within the industry questioning how good he’s going to be. Some of it is unsurprising given how bad his 2019 season was; he got to Triple A and bombed, probably with help from the Happy Fun Ball, giving up four or more runs in more than half of his outings — including relief outings designed to help him right the ship — and allowing nine homers in 24 1/3 innings for a 12.21 ERA. The ball wasn’t the only problem, as he was falling behind in counts too often in Triple A. So the Astros gave him a break, tried to work on his mechanics, and had him essentially rehab in the GCL and High A before he finished with a month in Double A (where he still walked too many guys) and six starts in the Arizona Fall League (where he finally had some success, with a 2.88 ERA and 9 walks in 25 innings). His stuff was as good as ever in October, 91-97 mph with a plus cutter and plus-plus changeup as well as two breaking balls that were more average, although on other days his curveball and slider have shown plus. It’s an absurd collection of pitches, but he has to repeat his delivery better so he can throw more consistent strikes, especially early in the count. His upside is unchanged — a No. 1 starter who can give you 200 innings — and we’ll see shortly if the mechanical tweaks he’s made this winter get his delivery to where it needs to be.

2. José Urquidy, RHP

Formerly known as José Luis Hernandez, Urquidy is a depth starter/long reliever who’s ready for the majors right now, getting swings and misses on his slider and curve, both grade 55 pitches, but with an ordinary four-seamer that gets hit hard and that prevents him from being more than a fourth starter in a best-case scenario. He has an above-average changeup as well and throws a lot of strikes, so any pitching plan that gets him away from his fastball will probably make him more effective in any role.

3. Luis Garcia, RHP

Garcia’s stuff climbed over the course of the year to the point where he was 93-97 mph as a starter with a 70 changeup and two average breaking balls, showing improved command and good feel to use all his pitches. He’s only about six feet tall but has a thick build and looks like he could start; with this stuff and feel he’d be a mid-rotation arm.

4. Freudis Nova, SS

Nova signed in 2016 for $1.2 million and just made his full-season debut last year in Low A at age 19, although his approach wasn’t quite ready for Midwest League pitching. He makes good contact when he puts the ball in play, and his bat plays up a little because he’s a 60 runner. He’s still developing at shortstop but has a 70 arm and the athleticism to stay there. There’s huge power potential here, but he’s a few years from getting to it.

5. Cristian Javier, RHP

Javier gets high swing-and-miss rates — he had the second-best strikeout rate of any minor league starter in 2019 — on a bucket of grade 50/55 pitches, with good deception and excellent feel for mixing and matching his various offerings. Scouts question whether better hitters will continue to miss at these rates given how much he works out of the zone, and those high walk rates limit him to a back-end starter role.

6. Jose Rivera, RHP

Rivera has been up to 100 and can sit at 96 as a starter with a hard slider and plus splitter. He’s lanky with a loose, quick arm, with some effort in the delivery but enough of an arsenal to keep him as a starter for now. He signed at 19 in 2016, ‘old’ for a Dominican amateur player.

7. Hunter Brown, RHP

Drafted out of Division II Wayne State, Brown can hit 100 as a starter and flashes a plus slider and above-average curveball, along with a changeup that was much better in pro ball than it was in the spring, when he barely used it. He’s built like a starter but hasn’t shown that kind of command or control yet, either in school or in the minors. If that comes with time and pro coaching, he could be a No. 3 or better.

8. Bryan Abreu, RHP

Abreu works with an above-average fastball and two plus breaking balls in the curve and slider; his curve’s spin rate in the majors last year was just short of 3,000 rpm, putting him near the top of the scale. Strikes have been a problem for him for most of his brief career and his changeup isn’t that effective because it’s too firm. You can’t rule him out as a starter yet given his age and the No. 2 upside, but the odds are higher than he’s a dominant reliever who misses bats with his breaking stuff.

9. Abraham Toro, 3B

Toro has a knack for putting the bat on the ball and has average power, but he doesn’t have a clear position, needing work to be adequate at third and lacking experience (or perhaps the agility) for second.

10. Tyler Ivey, RHP

Ivey has a violent delivery but misses bats with his solid-average fastball and above-average breaking ball, throwing more strikes than you’d expect but still most likely ticketed for the pen. He missed time in 2019 after he was suspended for having a foreign substance in his glove.

The next 10

11. Korey Lee, C

Lee was the Astros’ first-round pick in 2019, a surprise selection of a player most teams didn’t see as a day-one pick. He’s apparently a great framer, and definitely has a plus arm, but his swing isn’t going to produce enough line drives to project him as a regular; he played 64 games in short-season ball and had a 52.3 percent groundball rate there. 

12. Colin Barber, OF

Barber was the Astros’ fourth-rounder last year and the first high school player they chose, an above-average runner with a chance to stay in centerfield. He has a balanced swing for contact but would need a fair amount of work on his swing path to get to power.

13. Brandon Bielak, RHP

Bielak seems like a low-ceiling, high-floor guy in a system full of future relievers; he doesn’t have a knockout pitch but his curve and slider are above-average and if he throws a few more strikes he’d be a good fourth or fifth starter.

14. Jairo Solis, RHP

Solis missed the year due to Tommy John surgery but was up to 100 prior to the injury with a solid delivery and hit 97 in the team’s Dominican instructional league while he was rehabbing. He’d be an arm to watch if he comes back healthy, as he has more upside than almost any arm in the system.

15. Jordan Brewer, OF

Brewer was the Astros’ third-round pick, a 70 runner who didn’t play center field much at the University of Michigan but is more than fast and athletic enough to try it. He was a two-sport prospect in high school, also playing football, and has above-average raw power he doesn’t get to in games right now.

16. Garrett Stubbs, C

Stubbs is really small for a catcher but has very good command of his small strike zone, rarely punching out and walking enough to have value as a backup; his frame may not permit him to be much more.

17. Shawn Dubin, RHP

Dubin was a 13th-rounder in 2018 out of Georgetown … no, Georgetown College, in Kentucky, an NAIA school that has never produced a big leaguer and hadn’t even had a player drafted since 1997. He signed for $1,000 as a senior and has seen his velocity improve to where he was now 93-97 in the playoffs last year with a four-pitch mix that misses a lot of bats. He’s no more than 5′11″ and is listed at 154 pounds, so he has to fill out a lot to hold up as a starter, but he has the pure stuff to do it.

18. Luis Santana, IF

Santana was part of the return for J.D. Davis and struggled to elevate the ball in the New York-Penn League; he rarely strikes out and has some latent power but hits the ball on the ground or as low line drives too often.

19. Jeremy Pena, SS

The Astros’ third-round pick in 2018, Pena can really play shortstop but there’s no impact with the bat thanks to a severely grooved swing, and he’s probably no more than a defensive replacement.

20. Nivaldo Rodriguez, RHP

Rodriguez was just added to their 40-man roster this winter after a solid year at both full-season A-ball stops, working with three average pitches and good control, with a fifth starter ceiling and a solid middle relief floor.

Others of note

Mexican lefthander Juan Pablo Lopez was 89-94 with a promising slider and has some projection left to his 6′4″ frame, trending towards becoming a back-end starter prospect… Right-hander Enoli Paredes is clearly a reliever with a max-effort delivery that has missed bats so far up through Double A, especially against right-handers. He was more effective in relief last year as well and this is probably the right time to move him there permanently… Right-hander Angel Macuare works with a four-pitch mix with fringe-average stuff but nothing plus, with a promising delivery, but his command and control really lag behind his stuff right now and he has yet to pitch above short-season ball … Right-hander Jojanse Torres is up to 100 mph but he’s a rock-thrower without feel and with no third pitch … The Astros’ second-round pick last year, Grae Kessinger never strikes out but collapses his back leg in his swing, so he can’t get to power, and I don’t think he can stay at short. … Eighteen-year-old Jairo Lopez was 92-95 in relief for Tri-City with a plus curveball and average changeup, but is really small to end up a starter.

2020 impact

It’s time for Whitley to step up and join the rotation after what was supposed to be his debut season in 2019 went off the rails; he’ll join Urquidy, who seems to already have a spot. Stubbs would be a quality backup catcher right now, maybe more if his small frame holds up. Toro should be on the bench as well, backing up at multiple spots.

The fallen

Their second-round pick in 2019, high school right-hander Jayson Schroeder, walked 37 guys in 25 innings last year even though the Astros demoted him twice to try to straighten things out. 

Sleeper

Garcia has everything you’d want to see in a future starter except for size. Another year of proving it in Double A will put him squarely on the top 100.

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runthebone

runthebone 7981

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Posted
1 minute ago, Mez2 said:

The Astros’ system has been gutted not just by trades, but by the inevitable results of trying to draft without scouts, which has filled the system with a lot of very low-ceiling college performers. The strength here now is the international class, including a slew of hard-throwing right-handers from Latin America.

The Top 10

1. Forrest Whitley, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 14)

From the Top 100: Whitley will pitch at 22 for all of 2020, yet it seems like there are already people within the industry questioning how good he’s going to be. Some of it is unsurprising given how bad his 2019 season was; he got to Triple A and bombed, probably with help from the Happy Fun Ball, giving up four or more runs in more than half of his outings — including relief outings designed to help him right the ship — and allowing nine homers in 24 1/3 innings for a 12.21 ERA. The ball wasn’t the only problem, as he was falling behind in counts too often in Triple A. So the Astros gave him a break, tried to work on his mechanics, and had him essentially rehab in the GCL and High A before he finished with a month in Double A (where he still walked too many guys) and six starts in the Arizona Fall League (where he finally had some success, with a 2.88 ERA and 9 walks in 25 innings). His stuff was as good as ever in October, 91-97 mph with a plus cutter and plus-plus changeup as well as two breaking balls that were more average, although on other days his curveball and slider have shown plus. It’s an absurd collection of pitches, but he has to repeat his delivery better so he can throw more consistent strikes, especially early in the count. His upside is unchanged — a No. 1 starter who can give you 200 innings — and we’ll see shortly if the mechanical tweaks he’s made this winter get his delivery to where it needs to be.

2. José Urquidy, RHP

Formerly known as José Luis Hernandez, Urquidy is a depth starter/long reliever who’s ready for the majors right now, getting swings and misses on his slider and curve, both grade 55 pitches, but with an ordinary four-seamer that gets hit hard and that prevents him from being more than a fourth starter in a best-case scenario. He has an above-average changeup as well and throws a lot of strikes, so any pitching plan that gets him away from his fastball will probably make him more effective in any role.

3. Luis Garcia, RHP

Garcia’s stuff climbed over the course of the year to the point where he was 93-97 mph as a starter with a 70 changeup and two average breaking balls, showing improved command and good feel to use all his pitches. He’s only about six feet tall but has a thick build and looks like he could start; with this stuff and feel he’d be a mid-rotation arm.

4. Freudis Nova, SS

Nova signed in 2016 for $1.2 million and just made his full-season debut last year in Low A at age 19, although his approach wasn’t quite ready for Midwest League pitching. He makes good contact when he puts the ball in play, and his bat plays up a little because he’s a 60 runner. He’s still developing at shortstop but has a 70 arm and the athleticism to stay there. There’s huge power potential here, but he’s a few years from getting to it.

5. Cristian Javier, RHP

Javier gets high swing-and-miss rates — he had the second-best strikeout rate of any minor league starter in 2019 — on a bucket of grade 50/55 pitches, with good deception and excellent feel for mixing and matching his various offerings. Scouts question whether better hitters will continue to miss at these rates given how much he works out of the zone, and those high walk rates limit him to a back-end starter role.

6. Jose Rivera, RHP

Rivera has been up to 100 and can sit at 96 as a starter with a hard slider and plus splitter. He’s lanky with a loose, quick arm, with some effort in the delivery but enough of an arsenal to keep him as a starter for now. He signed at 19 in 2016, ‘old’ for a Dominican amateur player.

7. Hunter Brown, RHP

Drafted out of Division II Wayne State, Brown can hit 100 as a starter and flashes a plus slider and above-average curveball, along with a changeup that was much better in pro ball than it was in the spring, when he barely used it. He’s built like a starter but hasn’t shown that kind of command or control yet, either in school or in the minors. If that comes with time and pro coaching, he could be a No. 3 or better.

8. Bryan Abreu, RHP

Abreu works with an above-average fastball and two plus breaking balls in the curve and slider; his curve’s spin rate in the majors last year was just short of 3,000 rpm, putting him near the top of the scale. Strikes have been a problem for him for most of his brief career and his changeup isn’t that effective because it’s too firm. You can’t rule him out as a starter yet given his age and the No. 2 upside, but the odds are higher than he’s a dominant reliever who misses bats with his breaking stuff.

9. Abraham Toro, 3B

Toro has a knack for putting the bat on the ball and has average power, but he doesn’t have a clear position, needing work to be adequate at third and lacking experience (or perhaps the agility) for second.

10. Tyler Ivey, RHP

Ivey has a violent delivery but misses bats with his solid-average fastball and above-average breaking ball, throwing more strikes than you’d expect but still most likely ticketed for the pen. He missed time in 2019 after he was suspended for having a foreign substance in his glove.

The next 10

11. Korey Lee, C

Lee was the Astros’ first-round pick in 2019, a surprise selection of a player most teams didn’t see as a day-one pick. He’s apparently a great framer, and definitely has a plus arm, but his swing isn’t going to produce enough line drives to project him as a regular; he played 64 games in short-season ball and had a 52.3 percent groundball rate there. 

12. Colin Barber, OF

Barber was the Astros’ fourth-rounder last year and the first high school player they chose, an above-average runner with a chance to stay in centerfield. He has a balanced swing for contact but would need a fair amount of work on his swing path to get to power.

13. Brandon Bielak, RHP

Bielak seems like a low-ceiling, high-floor guy in a system full of future relievers; he doesn’t have a knockout pitch but his curve and slider are above-average and if he throws a few more strikes he’d be a good fourth or fifth starter.

14. Jairo Solis, RHP

Solis missed the year due to Tommy John surgery but was up to 100 prior to the injury with a solid delivery and hit 97 in the team’s Dominican instructional league while he was rehabbing. He’d be an arm to watch if he comes back healthy, as he has more upside than almost any arm in the system.

15. Jordan Brewer, OF

Brewer was the Astros’ third-round pick, a 70 runner who didn’t play center field much at the University of Michigan but is more than fast and athletic enough to try it. He was a two-sport prospect in high school, also playing football, and has above-average raw power he doesn’t get to in games right now.

16. Garrett Stubbs, C

Stubbs is really small for a catcher but has very good command of his small strike zone, rarely punching out and walking enough to have value as a backup; his frame may not permit him to be much more.

17. Shawn Dubin, RHP

Dubin was a 13th-rounder in 2018 out of Georgetown … no, Georgetown College, in Kentucky, an NAIA school that has never produced a big leaguer and hadn’t even had a player drafted since 1997. He signed for $1,000 as a senior and has seen his velocity improve to where he was now 93-97 in the playoffs last year with a four-pitch mix that misses a lot of bats. He’s no more than 5′11″ and is listed at 154 pounds, so he has to fill out a lot to hold up as a starter, but he has the pure stuff to do it.

18. Luis Santana, IF

Santana was part of the return for J.D. Davis and struggled to elevate the ball in the New York-Penn League; he rarely strikes out and has some latent power but hits the ball on the ground or as low line drives too often.

19. Jeremy Pena, SS

The Astros’ third-round pick in 2018, Pena can really play shortstop but there’s no impact with the bat thanks to a severely grooved swing, and he’s probably no more than a defensive replacement.

20. Nivaldo Rodriguez, RHP

Rodriguez was just added to their 40-man roster this winter after a solid year at both full-season A-ball stops, working with three average pitches and good control, with a fifth starter ceiling and a solid middle relief floor.

Others of note

Mexican lefthander Juan Pablo Lopez was 89-94 with a promising slider and has some projection left to his 6′4″ frame, trending towards becoming a back-end starter prospect… Right-hander Enoli Paredes is clearly a reliever with a max-effort delivery that has missed bats so far up through Double A, especially against right-handers. He was more effective in relief last year as well and this is probably the right time to move him there permanently… Right-hander Angel Macuare works with a four-pitch mix with fringe-average stuff but nothing plus, with a promising delivery, but his command and control really lag behind his stuff right now and he has yet to pitch above short-season ball … Right-hander Jojanse Torres is up to 100 mph but he’s a rock-thrower without feel and with no third pitch … The Astros’ second-round pick last year, Grae Kessinger never strikes out but collapses his back leg in his swing, so he can’t get to power, and I don’t think he can stay at short. … Eighteen-year-old Jairo Lopez was 92-95 in relief for Tri-City with a plus curveball and average changeup, but is really small to end up a starter.

2020 impact

It’s time for Whitley to step up and join the rotation after what was supposed to be his debut season in 2019 went off the rails; he’ll join Urquidy, who seems to already have a spot. Stubbs would be a quality backup catcher right now, maybe more if his small frame holds up. Toro should be on the bench as well, backing up at multiple spots.

The fallen

Their second-round pick in 2019, high school right-hander Jayson Schroeder, walked 37 guys in 25 innings last year even though the Astros demoted him twice to try to straighten things out. 

Sleeper

Garcia has everything you’d want to see in a future starter except for size. Another year of proving it in Double A will put him squarely on the top 100.

 

 

Who wrote this/is kissing scouts' asses?  All of that departed talent was adequate to make trades for proven big leaguers.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9432

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Posted

Blum: he’s not the worst?


I mean, I don’t love the guy, but he’s not horrible either. I just can’t get over the doucheness / “I’m trying real hard to be cool, but I’m still a dad of 3”

There is an inherent uncoolness you can’t cover up being a dad of 3 and when you try, it makes it that much worse.

(Said by a dad of 2 that has long ceased trying the schtick that Blum pulls)

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29190

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Posted

i think he's a good offset for kalas.  the whole > sum of its parts.

also re: the reasoning behind the "depleted" farm system - our mlb team is filled with very young superstars and pieces we gained through trades of young talent.  until the daz camerons of the world start making noise, i'm fine with our decisions.  saying we have a lot of low-ceiling college guys reminds me of what was said about beer, who we traded for greinke.  so yeah.

if tucker, yordan, james, etc were still down in aaa, we'd be on a lot more top system lists.  but why?

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54217

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Posted
Blum: he’s not the worst?


I mean, I don’t love the guy, but he’s not horrible either. I just can’t get over the doucheness / “I’m trying real hard to be cool, but I’m still a dad of 3”

There is an inherent uncoolness you can’t cover up being a dad of 3 and when you try, it makes it that much worse.

(Said by a dad of 2 that has long ceased trying the schtick that Blum pulls)
Even relative to his peers, he comes across as being so devoid of intelligence... The nadir was last season when they did that "Analytics Weekend" on the broadcast. It was absolutely clear that he had zero understanding of BABIP, FIP, WAR, etc. which is inexcusable for a professional broadcaster, especially one for the Astros. It was like listening to Helobius.
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kevwun

kevwun 15781

Posted
Posted (edited)

We were in SRO in left field for WS Game 6 and were right by a beer stand.  At one point during the game, Blum just strolled up to the counter and got a beer like a normal person.  Then he stopped to take pictures with a few people before going back to his seats.  He doesn't bother me and seems like a good dude.  Bagwell is awesome in the booth.  I love when he busts players' balls.

Edited by kevwun
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DallasGatr

DallasGatr 216

Posted
Posted

WTF? Blummer is damn Astro treasure. Maybe it’s my Cali roots and I can relate to his self deprecating style. Whatever it is I find him to be hilarious and glad he’s on our side.

As a side note Kalas seemed to be over his senility that was on display his first year or so.

I’m so over this off-season. Let’s play some real baseball and kick some ass!

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