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Posted

Y’all sure are negative. Dusty Baker is a great club house guy and has won at multiple stops. He is very well suited to deal with the shit storm of this season. Just because he’s not an analytical guy doesn’t mean he can’t adapt. If the GM is analytical and mandates something to Dusty it’s not going to be one of those Phillip Seymour Hoffman money ball type of deals. The Gm here is crucial, the manager is not an organization changer. You’re acting like the team doesn’t have probably 10ish potential all stars on it. Even if Dusty sucks it’s not like Springer, Altuve, Bregman etc are just going to forget how to play baseball at a high level. Worry about the GM situation but the manager hire was never going to be an organization changer. And yes, analytics is still going to be a gigantic part of the organization, not like they are just going to flip script just because Luhnow is gone. Crane hires Luhnow specifically for his approach, he will hire the next one following in that same mold because why the hell wouldn’t he. Can we just fast forward to opening day already

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Posted

to further the analysis we would need to analyze the efficacy of the banging.  What was the result on the pitches where there was a bang.  not that it changes anything.  I would simply find it interesting.  I want to know how effective their cheating was.  

Posted
  On 1/29/2020 at 6:48 PM, pepper brooks said:

to further the analysis we would need to analyze the efficacy of the banging.  What was the result on the pitches where there was a bang.  not that it changes anything.  I would simply find it interesting.  I want to know how effective their cheating was.  

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his data files are available to download on that site.  I think what you need to do is say any at bat with a bang is a cheating at bat since no bang could be a fastball.  Then see how those at bats turned out.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say it didn't help.

Posted
  On 1/29/2020 at 6:59 PM, MAROON said:

his data files are available to download on that site.  I think what you need to do is say any at bat with a bang is a cheating at bat since no bang could be a fastball.  Then see how those at bats turned out.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say it didn't help.

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I’m mostly of the mind that it didn’t help, but then I see Cam Maybin get a third of his season RBIs in his first two weeks with the Astros.  So I don’t know that it didn’t help.   And that’s what sucks about this whole deal.   

Posted
  On 1/29/2020 at 6:59 PM, MAROON said:
his data files are available to download on that site.  I think what you need to do is say any at bat with a bang is a cheating at bat since no bang could be a fastball.  Then see how those at bats turned out.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say it didn't help.
I bet it helped Marwin. He used it alot and had career numbers
Posted
  On 1/29/2020 at 7:25 PM, Scraps said:
  On 1/29/2020 at 6:59 PM, MAROON said:
his data files are available to download on that site.  I think what you need to do is say any at bat with a bang is a cheating at bat since no bang could be a fastball.  Then see how those at bats turned out.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say it didn't help.
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I bet it helped Marwin. He used it alot and had career numbers

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wouldn't doubt it.  The data is there to analyze.

 

I did look through some games and what I noticed that makes me think it didn't help much (but I did not look at just Marwin specifically).

1. majority of bangs are off speed pitches, but NOT all off speed pitches resulted in a bang during an at bat. Assume that means they couldn't get the sign - which leaves the batter really screwed - he thinks no bang = fastball, when its actually off speed.
2. Some bangs for fast balls - assume they screwed up the sign steal or the other team changed the signs. Again this screws the batter.

Posted

Joe Posnanski has been writing up his 100 greatest players of all-time.  Today was Bagwell at #58.  If anything I think that's a little too low but the comments are full of people saying he shouldn't be on the list.

The article is just ok.  It spends way too much time on Boston and Frank White for some reason.

https://theathletic.com/1546428/2020/01/29/the-baseball-100-no-58-jeff-bagwell/

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Posted
  On 1/28/2020 at 10:15 PM, pepper brooks said:

his handling of pitching and the fact that the game, like it or not, is now analytics driven no matter how "old school" you are.  The Astros fired guys and paid their fine.  Outside that they should make zero changed to organizational philosophy.  Promote the best of Luhnow's guys or go hire one of his guys who has moved up within the ranks at another organization, hire a younger analytics driven manager, and keep the train on the tracks.  Just do it without using enhanced sign stealing.  

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In my opinion, hiring Dusty for a year reflects management/ownership belief that the players are in place to win, and Dusty will keep the players happy. Positive PR and a belief that he can’t fuck it up. 
 

I personally agree with pepper here - sure seems like an abandonment of philosophy. Surely there was a balance between good analytics and “win at all costs”. Dusty is fine, but not great and he’s frustratingly stubborn

Posted
  On 1/29/2020 at 8:05 PM, Pig Bellmont said:

In my opinion, hiring Dusty for a year reflects management/ownership belief that the players are in place to win, and Dusty will keep the players happy. Positive PR and a belief that he can’t fuck it up. 
 

I personally agree with pepper here - sure seems like an abandonment of philosophy. Surely there was a balance between good analytics and “win at all costs”. Dusty is fine, but not great and he’s frustratingly stubborn

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it's going to look really bad if/when they fire him after one year too.  First thing the media is going to do is say it's because he's old/black.  that won't be true, but they will say it, and then bring up the Taubman stuff and bag on how the astros are the devil again.  and to be clear, I like dusty baker a lot as a manager.  i'd personally love to play for a calm, old school players coach like him.  I simply think this is not a good fit for this organization.  

Posted
  On 1/29/2020 at 7:41 PM, WBT said:

Joe Posnanski has been writing up his 100 greatest players of all-time.  Today was Bagwell at #58.  If anything I think that's a little too low but the comments are full of people saying he shouldn't be on the list.

The article is just ok.  It spends way too much time on Boston and Frank White for some reason.

https://theathletic.com/1546428/2020/01/29/the-baseball-100-no-58-jeff-bagwell/

  Reveal hidden contents

 

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And that's why I don't read comments. 36th all-time in position player WAR (per FG); 29th all-time in wRC+; ROY, MVP, 5 top-7 MVP finishes, etc...

Posted

Damnit I was still holding out hope.

This sure feels like Manfred is dictating the hire.  Crane would never go along to get along though...wait, what?  We're in the AL west now?

  • Like 2
Posted

I now expect a full year-down after the 2021 season.  Springer, Brantley, Verlander, Greinke, Correa, and maybe McCullers will be issued QOs upon reaching free agency.  Bregman, James, and Pressly will be traded.  A new core of Whitley, Tucker, Alvarez, Urquidy, and whatever prospects they add will be ready by 2024.  But 2022-2023 are gonna be a huge dropoff from 2015-2021.

Posted
  On 1/29/2020 at 10:13 PM, Storm the Field said:

The fuck? Bregman is an emerging MVP-caliber player and is signed through the end of the 2024 season, at which time he will still only be 30 years old. 

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Depends on what teams will offer, but assuming they won’t be competitive for his age 28 and 29 seasons it might make sense to flip him for 2-3 core pieces that come with 6 cheap seasons each.  Obviously if no team will give up massive value (I.e. 3 MLB Top 75 type prospects) then I agree it would make more sense to keep him and try to extend him.

Posted (edited)

Y’all can back off the ledge now. A one year deal with analytically minded Espada as bench coach is the absolute best case scenario for this. Get an analytical GM on a similar deal and evaluate next offseason 

Edited by RGBIII
  • Like 3
Posted
  On 1/29/2020 at 6:10 PM, Guadaloopy said:

My quick takeaway... Altuve was not a fan. Neither was Reddick or McCann.   Kemp is clean.  Springer, Bregman, Correa, and Yuli partook freely.  Jake was all in on the banging.  

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Funny thing is that Altuve was the very first bang of the season, but yeah, he was near the bottom in bangs.

<insert South Austin's mom joke here>

Posted

Not sure if it’s been reported anywhere but watch for James Click (Rays VP of Ops) for GM. Definitely seems like an organization fit..really anyone from the Rays would be

  • Like 2
Posted

[Analytics assistant]: Ok Coach Baker, we have tabulated 45,768 similar at bats to the present situation and predict with 92% certainty that a ground ball will track to the right side of the infield even though he’s a right handed hitter, so we should shift Correa here. Just look at the model generated on my iPad...

[Dusty]: Whaaaa? The shortstop doesn’t play over there you whippersnapper! That’s where the second baseman goes! And the batter is righty so we need to pull this lefty pitcher! I don’t care what your fancy math says about his tendencies! It’s called “playing the percentages!” It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames! And what the fuck is an iPad???

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