2019 Election thread

[Bateshorn 9898]

35 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Pretty sure you're talking about Chattanooga. I was just up there for a small tech conference and was very impressed with the scene, it shocked me. Very old brick buildings being nicely repurposed for new shops, companies, and restaurants. This fits right in with what @Celery Man posted about mid-sized cities attracting millennials seeking home ownership that isn't grotesquely expensive for first-time home buyers.

My hometown of Augusta, GA is desperately trying to do the same but isn't have as much success.

 

http://www.chattanooga.gov/it/nooganet/nooga-net-guest-wifi-access

God, Augusta is a dump.  I was shocked by how run down it was. 

 

There's no good news if you are the GOP this morning.  You got run in virtually every suburbs in the race, including in Memphis suburbs in Mississippi (where I might add, a solid D got with in 5 of clean GOP candidate).   Sure, I guess you can point to down ballot in KY, but as others have pointed out, KY voters are willing to support the right Democrat against an unpopular GOP candidate.  It's not just that suburban GOP women are voting blue in waves.  It looks like suburban GOP men are also open to ticket splitting.  

 

[Goredho 17346]

11 hours ago, bolverk said:

At the same time, back when cable was a new thing in the 1980s, it exposed my Southern Baptist white ass from a conservative backwater to great music on 120 minutes and shit like Aeon Flux, which helped me want to go out and see what the outside world was all about.

Unfortunately, the Church of Christ deacon who ran the local cable outfit thought Madonna was a slut and shut that shit down for subsequent high school classes.

I guess the good comes at risk of the bad. From my point of view, exposure tends to outweigh being sheltered. It seems like most of the alt-right nuts come from the 'burbs and not the tiny towns anyway.

This is the sort of stuff that got me to open my eyes seeing the local hypocrisy and closed mindedness for what it was. In its day, MTV performed a gotdam patriotic national service.

 

I think it goes further than that.  I grew up in a podank west Texas town in the 70s and 80s.  All the kids were helping their dad’s put in fence posts, shear sheep and the like.  My parents were divorced, and I lived with my mom.  She read a time magazine article about the future of computing and decided to send me to a two week computer camp at Trinity university the summer before my 7th grade year.  I learned the basics of programming and developed a huge curiosity for hacking.  Mom bought me an Apple IIc and we were the only people in my hometown that had a personal computer.  I still hunted and fished and was otherwise connected to those other kids, but a little nerd’s seed had been planted inside me (go ahead, make your jokes).

Fast forward 35 years or so and I’m a software engineer with 20+ years of experience making a damn fine salary.  I’ve never been laid off and anytime I’ve wanted a new gig, I’ve had multiple offers within the week of putting out feelers.

The other kids I grew up with, the ones helping their dad’s on the ranch, are by and large struggling paycheck-to-paycheck working in the oil fields.  Not all, but by far most.

Not sure what that means other than if my mom hadn’t exposed me to computers and programming — something completely foreign to the rural environment I grew up in — I would most likely be one of those guys toiling at the oil fields, embarrassed of the shitty trailer my kids call home, wondering wtf I am going to do to make a living in the next 5-10 years when my body starts physically breaking down.  I’d probably be buying lottery tickets and voting for Trump, hoping against hope that one might deliver.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13411]

I have to laugh at the Trump defense in helping GOP get elected. I actually agree that Trump's final week rallies help the GOP candidate. However Trump is also the reason they need help in the first place. 

If Jeb or Rubio (or anyone else) had been elected in 2016 over Trump, no one would be thinking that Texas could even come close to turning purple much less blue. Trump is the reason the GOP is in retreat. He is the Democrat's dream POTUS.  Every Trump tweet or on-camera statement is creating more Democrat votes.  If the Democrats ever created a Hall of Fame, Trump would be a first ballot inductee.

[huge 3788]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

  If the Democrats ever created a Hall of Fame, Trump would be a first ballot inductee.

SAD!

 

but true

[Voldemort86 2259]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I have to laugh at the Trump defense in helping GOP get elected. I actually agree that Trump's final week rallies help the GOP candidate. However Trump is also the reason they need help in the first place. 

If Jeb or Rubio (or anyone else) had been elected in 2016 over Trump, no one would be thinking that Texas could even come close to turning purple much less blue. Trump is the reason the GOP is in retreat. He is the Democrat's dream POTUS.  Every Trump tweet or on-camera statement is creating more Democrat votes.  If the Democrats ever created a Hall of Fame, Trump would be a first ballot inductee.

I just hope we’re not looking at Obama era midterm turnout levels after Trump is gone. 2010 and 2014 were total disasters. We weren’t even remotely competitive. 

[GSU&UT 1798]

17 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

God, Augusta is a dump.  I was shocked by how run down it was. 

Not sure when you were last down there, but compared to when I was a kid they've pumped money into trying to make downtown somewhat livable with a little bit of a scene, they've spent a ton of money on trying to build out cyber-security center that works with Augusta University. The problem is that people, especially young people, aren't really moving to the Augusta metro and instead going to Atlanta and other nearby areas.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

my guess is a little nerd's seed had been planted in sheared sheep.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13411]

I hear you that we need to help the kids in the small towns that have the ability or desire to get out. I don't know if it's worth dropping fiber optic cable into the trailer park 10 miles outside of town. Instead I could get behind requiring the mobile networks to include rural areas in their plans and allowing for more subsidized tablets or phones for children. 

However small towns are quickly losing their power even in Austin.  Assuming this link is accurate, the smallest counties (<20K) are not only not keeping up with city growth percentages, many of them are actually losing people. Harris County will most likely have grown by 600K from 2010-20. That is more than the TOTAL current population of the bottom 100 counties in Texas.  In other words, new Harris County residents will have more political power than 100 counties. Even with gerrymandering, they can't prevent power from moving to city politicians.  

[bolverk 29399]

38 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s hard to root for rural America. They seem to have this militant attitude towards people who live in big cities. They actually get off on sticking it to the “ liberal elite”. In many red states, the big cities get screwed even tho they are the ones who bring in the money. Rural people show up in unison and out vote the city folk.
 

in Texas it’s really bad. We are inexplicably the second biggest state in the country by both population and land mass, but we govern with a very small mind and rural approach. The Texas cities get no consideration from abbott and Goeb, if anything they spit on them. City and surburban folks take a backseat to the rural people in Texas and that won’t change until we finally break through and win a big election.

Texas is a really interesting deal. About two-thirds of the state's population lives in the big four metros: DFW, HOU, SA, & ATX. On top of that, I think roughly 80 percent overall live in urban areas and yet we still self-identify with the myth of being a frontier cowboy state.

I had an argument on Facebook (the preface to most stupid stories these days) with a former classmate still living in my West Texas hometown. He actually said my "Austin values" don't reflect those of most Texans, and I had to explain to him that Travis County, alone, whose population is 1.25 million is about the same as all of the West Texas region (minus El Paso, which they don't claim anyway) that encompasses Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Abilene, and all points in between.

Fuck you. My Texas is just as much Texas as your Texas.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13411]

11 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I just hope we’re not looking at Obama era midterm turnout levels after Trump is gone. 2010 and 2014 were total disasters. We weren’t even remotely competitive. 

Once Trump is gone, Democrats will naturally lose some motivation at the ballot box.  However having Trump as President for the 2020 election is a god send for Democrats. They will increase their majority or take the majority in enough state houses to impact the next decade because of redistricting. Much of what the GOP gained in 2000 and 2010 will be lost because of Trump.

[Bateshorn 9898]

15 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Not sure when you were last down there, but compared to when I was a kid they've pumped money into trying to make downtown somewhat livable with a little bit of a scene, they've spent a ton of money on trying to build out cyber-security center that works with Augusta University. The problem is that people, especially young people, aren't really moving to the Augusta metro and instead going to Atlanta and other nearby areas.

I could tell they were trying, for sure, but "build it and they will come" doesn't always work for cities.

[6th Street 6357]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I do not think Pennsylvania or Michigan are in doubt after 2018 and last night. 

My sole 2020 concern is still Wisconsin.  They have such red suburbs that do not seem to be following the trend everywhere else.  

I don't think anyone can make such an assertion without watching John King double click through the various precincts. 

[tantric superman 4667]

5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Fuck you. My Texas is just as much Texas as your Texas.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:

Pretty sure you're talking about Chattanooga. I was just up there for a small tech conference and was very impressed with the scene, it shocked me. Very old brick buildings being nicely repurposed for new shops, companies, and restaurants. This fits right in with what @Celery Man posted about mid-sized cities attracting millennials seeking home ownership that isn't grotesquely expensive for first-time home buyers.

My hometown of Augusta, GA is desperately trying to do the same but isn't have as much success.

 

 

Yeah, I looked it up. There was an extensive list on wiki. 

On the rural/city divide,  it probably deserves it's own thread.

Those suburbs keep growing. Prosper and Celina are not way out in the country. Neither is Grapevine. Which it was when my family moved there in 76. 

Then there's Austin. How fast is it gobbling up the country around it? All those college educated people moving to the burbs and small to medium exurbs are making political changes. 

 

[bolverk 29399]

31 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I think it goes further than that.  I grew up in a podank west Texas town in the 70s and 80s.  All the kids were helping their dad’s put in fence posts, shear sheep and the like.  My parents were divorced, and I lived with my mom.  She read a time magazine article about the future of computing and decided to send me to a two week computer camp at Trinity university the summer before my 7th grade year.  I learned the basics of programming and developed a huge curiosity for hacking.  Mom bought me an Apple IIc and we were the only people in my hometown that had a personal computer.  I still hunted and fished and was otherwise connected to those other kids, but a little nerd’s seed had been planted inside me (go ahead, make your jokes).

Fast forward 35 years or so and I’m a software engineer with 20+ years of experience making a damn fine salary.  I’ve never been laid off and anytime I’ve wanted a new gig, I’ve had multiple offers within the week of putting out feelers.

The other kids I grew up with, the ones helping their dad’s on the ranch, are by and large struggling paycheck-to-paycheck working in the oil fields.  Not all, but by far most.

Not sure what that means other than if my mom hadn’t exposed me to computers and programming — something completely foreign to the rural environment I grew up in — I would most likely be one of those guys toiling at the oil fields, embarrassed of the shitty trailer my kids call home, wondering wtf I am going to do to make a living in the next 5-10 years when my body starts physically breaking down.  I’d probably be buying lottery tickets and voting for Trump, hoping against hope that one might deliver.

 

We may well have been neighbors or football rivals. I spent many hours playing Zork on my Apple IIe in the small Permian Basin (not Petroplex) oil town I grew up in during the same era. Unfortunately, I never took to coding so I went the Liberal Arts route in undergrad.

[Js1 85104]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Once Trump is gone, Democrats will naturally lose some motivation at the ballot box.  However having Trump as President for the 2020 election is a god send for Democrats. They will increase their majority or take the majority in enough state houses to impact the next decade because of redistricting. Much of what the GOP gained in 2000 and 2010 will be lost because of Trump.

2017, 2018 and 2019 all saw incredibly high turnout for off-year and midterms.  People are still paying attention from 2016. 

2017 VA governor - 2,614,282 (+400k from 2013)
2017 NJ governor - 2,147,415 (+47k from 2013)
2018 midterms House - 111,434,215 (+35 million from 2014 and +27 million from 2010)
2019 Louisiana governor - 1,343,478 (+229k from 2015)
2019 Kentucky - 1,422,622 (+448k from 2015)
2019 Miss Gov - 847,880 (+129k from 2015)
 

Those are incredibly increases for off year elections and even the midterm.  

[Captainant 27447]

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Then there's Austin. How fast is it gobbling up the country around it? All those college educated people moving to the burbs and small to medium exurbs are making political changes. 

 

There's actually a very interesting real-world case study of libertarians trying to form their own government to prevent this, it's going about as well as you'd expect. Planet Money did a neat 20 minute episode on them and their journey.

[bolverk 29399]

22 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Not sure when you were last down there, but compared to when I was a kid they've pumped money into trying to make downtown somewhat livable with a little bit of a scene, they've spent a ton of money on trying to build out cyber-security center that works with Augusta University. The problem is that people, especially young people, aren't really moving to the Augusta metro and instead going to Atlanta and other nearby areas.

Last time I was in Augusta about ten years ago, the big thing was healthcare nuke research shit related to the goings on at the Savannah River Site.

[GSU&UT 1798]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Last time I was in Augusta about ten years ago, the big thing was healthcare nuke research shit related to the goings on at the Savannah River Site.

Yep, in the past 10 years they've very much tried to revitalize downtown and recently tried push it to become a tech hub specifically for cyber-security. Something like $100 million was spent funding this center that opened last year. We'll see if spending money really has much of an effect like Bates mentioned.

[Bateshorn 9898]

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Last time I was in Augusta about ten years ago, the big thing was healthcare nuke research shit related to the goings on at the Savannah River Site.

Savannah River is still there, and I suspect the main driver of the economy.  I think Augusta is trying to diversify beyond that and the Master's once a year.  It just blew me away that Augusta is the second  or third most populous metro area in GA.  It felt like a dying town. 

THat's Georgia's long term problem and the problem with Trump:  He's driving away voters in the ATL suburbs.  That's the future of America.  A few mid size towns are going to make the Austin/Nashville jump.  But most won't.  They'll just wither away unless they are close enough to a larger metro area to be gobbled up, like San Marcos.  Unless they have a giant federal facility to keep them on artificial life support.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Bateshorn

[Nice Guy Eddie 13411]

if you like government reports on future growth of Texas, here is a link for you to waste some time.  2050 projections of Harris at 7.9m and Texas up to 47m, almost doubling for both from 2010:  

https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/publications/2019/20190128_PopProjectionsBrief.pdf

Double the people in Houston....  Decent chance I won't see 2050 which may be ok by me.

 

[bolverk 29399]

2 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Yep, in the past 10 years they've very much tried to revitalize downtown and recently tried push it to become a tech hub specifically for cyber-security. Something like $100 million was spent funding this center that opened last year. We'll see if spending money really has much of an effect like Bates mentioned.

That's right. There's a huge nat security signals operation there if I recall now. Makes sense as something to leverage from an economic development standpoint. 

[GopherRock 1765]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

We’re seeing a significant realignment of the map for the first time in a generation.  WI and MN are going the direction of MO and OH.  Meanwhile, VA and CO are solid blues, AZ is very purple and then there are GA and TX.  The growing states are the ones trending blue.

Based on the mood of the electorate (as well as school bond issues passing in places I didn't expect), Minnesota is not moving in the direction of Missouri and Ohio as Republican strongholds. As noted earlier, a Republican hasn't won a statewide election since 2006 despite holding the RNC here and dumping gobs of cash into races here. Also, a GOP candidate hasn't won a majority in a statewide election since 1994.

[Aqua Buddha 14504]

Just now, GopherRock said:

Based on the mood of the electorate (as well as school bond issues passing in places I didn't expect), Minnesota is not moving in the direction of Missouri and Ohio as Republican strongholds. As noted earlier, a Republican hasn't won a statewide election since 2006 despite holding the RNC here and dumping gobs of cash into races here. Also, a GOP candidate hasn't won a majority in a statewide election since 1994.

I’m talking 10 years out.  I could see MN becoming more purple to lean red based on demographics.

[Chuckie Finster 22599]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

2017, 2018 and 2019 all saw incredibly high turnout for off-year and midterms.  People are still paying attention from 2016. 

2017 VA governor - 2,614,282 (+400k from 2013)
2017 NJ governor - 2,147,415 (+47k from 2013)
2018 midterms House - 111,434,215 (+35 million from 2014 and +27 million from 2010)
2019 Louisiana governor - 1,343,478 (+229k from 2015)
2019 Kentucky - 1,422,622 (+448k from 2015)
2019 Miss Gov - 847,880 (+129k from 2015)
 

Those are incredibly increases for off year elections and even the midterm.  

The only genuine compliment I will ever give Trump is that (directly and indirectly) he has drastically increased the number of citizens who vote, even in non-"big" elections.  That is a good thing for democracy. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Chuckie Finster

[Bateshorn 9898]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I’m talking 10 years out.  I could see MN becoming more purple to lean red based on demographics.

I could see this.  Part the problem is that as the Midwest Boomers with means age, they eventually all move to Florida, which means the GOP is effectively concentrating it's olds in one place.  It make sit hard for the Democrats under an electoral college strategy, but midwest states are bleeding both conservative olds and youngs.  Except in Minnesota, you have the twin cities, which is a very vibrant urban job market.

[horn4life 3755]

I do have some optimism for the future after seeing what happened in the elections last night.  Trump already tweeting out that Moscow Mitch is gonna win BIG after absorbing last night election tells how bad it really was.  Bevins was flawed but he was like a Trump mini-me.  A loudmouth, a rude guy who welded his power in the most abusive manner possible.  Blevins like Trump will no concede that he lost. The surge in turnout, especially in suburban areas should scare the fucking shit out of the GOP.  Especially when it is considerably more difficult to vote in the cities and Suburbs than in the rural areas of our nation, especially on election days. The down races in Kentucky still went to the GOP so there is that silver lining, but this is still an off year election.  Usually large surges in turnout are reserved for Presidential Elections

Here are some contrasting 2016 vs 2019 data points.  Kentucky 2016 official voter turnout.

Quote

The turnout rates among the political parties when compared to the 2012 election was mixed. Republicans voted at the same rate as in 2012 with 62.8 percent of GOP voters going to the polls. Democrats saw their turnout decline by a percentage point from 59.5 in 2012. There was no change in turnout for voters identifying as other or registered in other parties with about 45 percent casting ballots in November.

 

Since 2008, the rate of voter turnout is down across the board. Republicans saw a decline of more than 2 percent since that election and the turnout among Democrats declined by about 6 percent. Turnout of all other voters declined by more than 5 percent.

2019 Voter turnout

Quote

Unofficial results for Kentucky’s 2019 general election show a voter turnout of more than 42 percent, well above the 31 percent predicted last week by Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Upwards of 1.4 million people cast ballots in the Nov. 5 election, and more than half of the state’s counties saw voter turnouts of at least 40 percent.

In Fayette County, 47 percent of the 250,489 registered voters cast ballots, according to the state elections board. Democrat Andy Beshear outpaced Bevin in the state’s second-most populated county by significant margins, 65.5 percent to 33 percent.

In Jefferson County, 46 percent of the 611,150 registered voters cast ballots on Tuesday, 67 percent of whom backed Beshear, with 31.5 percent backing Bevin.

What I see here is two-fold:greater turnout and greater turnout intensity in non-rural areas.

 A trend of less voter interest has bee reversed since the 2016 election where Trump carried Kentucky with a massive 30 point victory overy Clinton. Huge turnouts in the more populous areas (harder to vote in)are only going to get larger in 2020.  Greater turnout in general is never a good thing for the GOP. That's why so many GOP Governor's instituted more barriers to voting to suppress turnout. The surges in voter turnout  if simply evenly applied across all counties is not a good trend for the GOP, where less not more is the GOP advantage. Having a disproportionate surge in more educated suburban areas is exactly the worst case scenario for voter turnout increases for the GOP.  It is very reasonable to assume that turnout rates are going to be substantially higher next Fall.

The political landscape looking forward does not present a lot of options for the GOP other than tying themselves to Trump at the hip and hoping and praying for terrible weather, and some sort of urban pandemic.  What I predict is that Trump is going to get a LOT more people to vote in 2020 that have voted in any prior presidential election by a fairly large percentage.  The voters that come into the mix that did not vote last go round are going to break very, very heavily to the Dems. The GOP is now in litterally a no-win situation. The hearings beginning next week are going to show a level of corruption by Republican elected officals that is going to enrage a lot of voters, even some Republicans that still have a moral compass.  Impeachment hearings will have exactly the same affect as years of Benghazi hearings did to Clinton, it will produce real damage.  The only real difference is that everyone will be tuned into see it, and it won't be trumped up wrong doings being looked at, it will be real wrong doing.

The smart play actually might be put on an honest trial, have McConnell remove Trump and insert Pence.  The GOP will not appear to be the corrupt elected officials they will show themselves to be starting next week. Voter outrage receds, turnout receds, and the chnace that another year of low voter turnout will work in the GOP's favor comes into play. Basically the GOP has built a box that they cannot get out of.  Voter turnout is going to be mind blowing in 2020, and that has traditionally not been good for the GOP.

Edited November 6, 2019 by horn4life

[gmr548 16504]

Texas is a really interesting deal. About two-thirds of the state's population lives in the big four metros: DFW, HOU, SA, & ATX. On top of that, I think roughly 80 percent overall live in urban areas and yet we still self-identify with the myth of being a frontier cowboy state.
I had an argument on Facebook (the preface to most stupid stories these days) with a former classmate still living in my West Texas hometown. He actually said my "Austin values" don't reflect those of most Texans, and I had to explain to him that Travis County, alone, whose population is 1.25 million is about the same as all of the West Texas region (minus El Paso, which they don't claim anyway) that encompasses Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Abilene, and all points in between.
Fuck you. My Texas is just as much Texas as your Texas.

I've never understood that in the modern age. Texas and the American West are more urbanized from a population distribution standpoint than points east. The vast majority of Americans that live west of I-35 live in a major metro area. Most western states have a supermajority of their population concentrated in one urban corridor. For CA and TX that expands to a few metro areas due to sheer size but it's the same concept.

In a few election cycles the west coast and southwest will be the new blue wall.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[SquishMitten 10400]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

They will increase their majority or take the majority in enough state houses to impact the next decade because of redistricting. Much of what the GOP gained in 2000 and 2010 will be lost because of Trump.

I think this is what you're saying, but every state legislature that flips should make un-gerrymandering their very first priority. And I mean that in all sincerity. Don't just gerrymander it back the other way. Don't look at party affiliation, race, wealth, anything. Take your total population, determine what number makes a district "even," then put it in a computer that draws the lines based on population in as close to a square shape as possible. You may end up with some weird districts along the edges of big cities where they may extend relatively far into a rural area where the constituent base has significantly different interests, but that's better than the current bullshit. Then establish strong rules to make it really cumbersome to change districting in the future. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

3 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I think this is what you're saying, but every state legislature that flips should make un-gerrymandering their very first priority. And I mean that in all sincerity. Don't just gerrymander it back the other way. Don't look at party affiliation, race, wealth, anything. Take your total population, determine what number makes a district "even," then put it in a computer that draws the lines based on population in as close to a square shape as possible. You may end up with some weird districts along the edges of big cities where they may extend relatively far into a rural area where the constituent base has significantly different interests, but that's better than the current bullshit. Then establish strong rules to make it really cumbersome to change districting in the future. 

people make this suggestion every few months on here.  that would take repeal of section 2 of the voting rights act because of minority opportunity districts.

 

imagine a scenario where there was racially polarized voting.  only through de facto segregation would you ever have a minority representative under your proposal.  not exactly a worthy goal.  and one the VRA is specifically acknowledges exists.

[bolverk 29399]

44 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I do have some optimism for the future after seeing what happened in the elections last night.  Trump already tweeting out that Moscow Mitch is gonna win BIG after absorbing last night election tells how bad it really was.  Bevins was flawed but he was like a Trump mini-me.  A loudmouth, a rude guy who welded his power in the most abusive manner possible.  Blevins like Trump will no concede that he lost. The surge in turnout, especially in suburban areas should scare the fucking shit out of the GOP.  Especially when it is considerably more difficult to vote in the cities and Suburbs than in the rural areas of our nation, especially on election days. The down races in Kentucky still went to the GOP so there is that silver lining, but this is still an off year election.  Usually large surges in turnout are reserved for Presidential Elections

Here are some contrasting 2016 vs 2019 data points.  Kentucky 2016 official voter turnout.

2019 Voter turnout

What I see here is two-fold:greater turnout and greater turnout intensity in non-rural areas.

 A trend of less voter interest has bee reversed since the 2016 election where Trump carried Kentucky with a massive 30 point victory overy Clinton. Huge turnouts in the more populous areas (harder to vote in)are only going to get larger in 2020.  Greater turnout in general is never a good thing for the GOP. That's why so many GOP Governor's instituted more barriers to voting to suppress turnout. The surges in voter turnout  if simply evenly applied across all counties is not a good trend for the GOP, where less not more is the GOP advantage. Having a disproportionate surge in more educated suburban areas is exactly the worst case scenario for voter turnout increases for the GOP.  It is very reasonable to assume that turnout rates are going to be substantially higher next Fall.

The political landscape looking forward does not present a lot of options for the GOP other than tying themselves to Trump at the hip and hoping and praying for terrible weather, and some sort of urban pandemic.  What I predict is that Trump is going to get a LOT more people to vote in 2020 that have voted in any prior presidential election by a fairly large percentage.  The voters that come into the mix that did not vote last go round are going to break very, very heavily to the Dems. The GOP is now in litterally a no-win situation. The hearings beginning next week are going to show a level of corruption by Republican elected officals that is going to enrage a lot of voters, even some Republicans that still have a moral compass.  Impeachment hearings will have exactly the same affect as years of Benghazi hearings did to Clinton, it will produce real damage.  The only real difference is that everyone will be tuned into see it, and it won't be trumped up wrong doings being looked at, it will be real wrong doing.

The smart play actually might be put on an honest trial, have McConnell remove Trump and insert Pence.  The GOP will not appear to be the corrupt elected officials they will show themselves to be starting next week. Voter outrage receds, turnout receds, and the chnace that another year of low voter turnout will work in the GOP's favor comes into play. Basically the GOP has built a box that they cannot get out of.  Voter turnout is going to be mind blowing in 2020, and that has traditionally not been good for the GOP.

Good post and well thought out. I might not agree on all the specifics but I do with your general gist.

Sorry. No rep at the moment.

[elfenix 34171]

 

3 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

people make this suggestion every few months on here.  that would take repeal of section 2 of the voting rights act because of minority opportunity districts.

 

imagine a scenario where there was racially polarized voting.  only through de facto segregation would you ever have a minority representative under your proposal.  not exactly a worthy goal.  and one the VRA is specifically acknowledges exists.

anyone know if proportional representation is legal in the US?  i've been thinking proportional representation for MSAs is the way to go.  rather than drawing geometric shapes you acknowledge that cities are a thing and draw the boundary based on commute patterns and population densities.  then within that, say, the MSA gets 4 reps, who are chosen proportionally.  then rural areas get someone who explicitly represents them instead of them being used to dilute suburbs.

you'd probably need to greatly increase the number of reps in the house (needs to be done anyway - though i don't trust gerrymandering fuckwads with the responsibility of drawing double or triple the number of districts, which is why i'd like what i described).  might violate something like the VRA as well.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Any word of Bevin trying to steal the election? 

[DixonHur 11199]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Also, the 2020 Democratic candidates need to sit down with Beshear to get some insights. Beshear made huge strides in some of the eastern coal counties.  

 

Beshear's appeal was simple...he wasn't Matt Bevin...that and people seem to genuinely like his dad who was a former governor of Kentucky.

As for Eastern Kentucky, believe it or not, that area has traditionally voted Dem.

 

[Tuco 5076]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Once Trump is gone, Democrats will naturally lose some motivation at the ballot box.  However having Trump as President for the 2020 election is a god send for Democrats. They will increase their majority or take the majority in enough state houses to impact the next decade because of redistricting. Much of what the GOP gained in 2000 and 2010 will be lost because of Trump.

To me, the big thing is the bench they are creating, particularly in red states.  There are lot of good, young, committed Democrats who are serving in state legislatures and lower.  That's a new generation who will build resumes, name recognition, allies, and donor lists.  Some of them will be competitive in the next decades for bigger things.     

[bolverk 29399]

22 minutes ago, elfenix said:

 

anyone know if proportional representation is legal in the US?  i've been thinking proportional representation for MSAs is the way to go.  rather than drawing geometric shapes you acknowledge that cities are a thing and draw the boundary based on commute patterns and population densities.  then within that, say, the MSA gets 4 reps, who are chosen proportionally.  then rural areas get someone who explicitly represents them instead of them being used to dilute suburbs.

you'd probably need to greatly increase the number of reps in the house (needs to be done anyway - though i don't trust gerrymandering fuckwads with the responsibility of drawing double or triple the number of districts, which is why i'd like what i described).  might violate something like the VRA as well.

I think increasing the number of reps is a really great way to go. The Constitution is completely silent on the issue and Congress steadily increased the number of representatives as our population ballooned up until WWI. Since then, we've been stuck with the same.

I think it might have been on the other site, but I posted about the issue and made a simple calculation that at the founding of the Republic that each rep had 25,000 constituents to serve. Today, each one represents 750,000.

That's a stark contrast and really calls into question their ability to serve a community of common interests.

[Tuco 5076]

2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Beshear's appeal was simple...he wasn't Matt Bevin...that and people seem to genuinely like his dad who was a former governor of Kentucky.

As for Eastern Kentucky, believe it or not, that area has traditionally voted Dem.

 

Appalachian Democrat seems to be its own species.  Kind of like Dixiecrats. 

[DixonHur 11199]

5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Appalachian Democrat seems to be its own species.  Kind of like Dixiecrats. 

They are an interesting lot to be sure...maybe we can call them Mountain Dew-mocrats

[bolverk 29399]

3 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

They are an interesting lot to be sure...maybe we can call them Mountain Dew-mocrats

BOOOOO!!!!!!

[DixonHur 11199]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

BOOOOO!!!!!!

Fair enough...lol

I'll stick to my day job

Edited November 6, 2019 by DixonHur

[SquishMitten 10400]

1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

imagine a scenario where there was racially polarized voting.  

And that's different from how it currently is in a lost of places?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

6 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

And that's different from how it currently is in a lost of places?

No.  That's how it is.  What I'm pointing out is that your solution to gerrymandering ("Don't look at party affiliation, race, wealth, anything") may made aesthetically pleasing maps, but is illegal.  It ignores minority opportunity districts.  

[atomheartbevo 89416]

2 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

I think this is what you're saying, but every state legislature that flips should make un-gerrymandering their very first priority. And I mean that in all sincerity. Don't just gerrymander it back the other way. Don't look at party affiliation, race, wealth, anything. Take your total population, determine what number makes a district "even," then put it in a computer that draws the lines based on population in as close to a square shape as possible. You may end up with some weird districts along the edges of big cities where they may extend relatively far into a rural area where the constituent base has significantly different interests, but that's better than the current bullshit. Then establish strong rules to make it really cumbersome to change districting in the future. 

Redistricting will be on everybody's mind because of the census next year.

[DixonHur 11199]

Kentucky election talk not going away. 

Looks like we're getting a sneak preview of how the 2020 election will go down.  Bevin is refusing to concede and is asking for a recount.  He says he will respect the outcome either way..."if I am confident the process has been served".

Of course "the process" is overseen by a Democrat...who unsuccessfully ran against the turtle...so I'm sure he'll be fine with the results.  Especially after adding this little jab in his press conference today.

"The fact that our secretary of state was on national TV show, which I hesitate to suggest to anybody that anyone is partisan in the world of media coverage, that said, it was an interesting choice of places for her to go while the roll was being tallied, the votes were being tallied, and to call an election, and this is from a woman, who, with all due respect to her is not exactly rock solid when it comes to following the letter of the law. She is currently under investigation for misuse of voter files herself. Her father has already been convicted of multiple, i think 10 different federal charges related to election fraud specific to her race. He’s going to be sentenced and probably spend significant portions if not the rest of his life in prison. So this is a family and an office that has been very corrupt. "

"We know there have been thousands of absentee ballots that were illegally counted, that is known," Bevin said. "And this again is something that's being looked into. We know that there are reports of people having been turned away, incorrectly turned away from various voting booths around the state. Again, things that need to be corroborated and looked into. These are some of the things that we're in the process of determining. We know that in Jefferson County, there were a number of machines that did not work properly. So ballots were taken and just put in open boxes and people were told they'd be scanned in later. They may have been. They may not have been. We truly don't know."

 

Spoiler

Let me just establish this at the outset. I am going to tell you everything I am capable of telling you at this time. There is not going to be room for q&a. There are questions that i don’t have answers for. I will lay out everything I can lay out. I won’t be taking questions, simply because everything i know explains where we are right now. I will lay it out in the course of the next couple of minutes. We today filed and asked for a recanvass. This is fairly, i wouldn’t say routine, but it is not uncommon in Kentucky. It is a process whereby we ask that we ensure every tally that was taken -- we use electronic voting, so every tally is accurate, so there wasn’t a transposed number or something of this sort. So this is what we have asked for. It has to be completed according to the law by the Thursday following the Tuesday that falls after the election day. In other words, this would not be tomorrow, but a week from tomorrow at 9:00 a.m., the recanvass would occur in every one of the counties. So this has happened as recently as four years ago read when i won my primary, my opponent in that instance asked for a recanvass, which I encouraged actually, and he and i had spoken about that. It is good. It is healthy for this process to take place. We want to ensure, above all else, that the integrity of the process is a good one. Incidentally, i have not spoken with the attorney general but i got his voicemail, I sent him a text, i have not heard back from him. I expect that I will at some point. The information I want to communicate to him is essentially the same information that i am communicating with you. We want this process to move forward expeditiously. We want it to be something everyone can have confidence in. What we know is that there really are a number of significant irregularities, the specifics of which we are in the process of getting affidavits and other information that will help us to get a better understanding of what date or did not happen. Those will be forthcoming in the days ahead, but that is the cart getting in front of the horse, because none of this will really be followed through on until after the recanvass in -- the recanvassing process. The thing I would encourage people to know, that i have encouraged through my public statements and that will -- and that I will reaffirm even now, is that it would be wise for the attorney general to be doing what he is doing. He should be putting together a transition team and he should be having conversations, with the expectation that if he is the person with the most votes at the end of this, that he should in fact be ready to take responsibility of being governor. At the very same time, we have a responsibility to ensure that the integrity of the process is such that, at the end event that we have the most votes, we are in a position to be able to continue forward with governance. It is just that simple.

Again, the reasons for this, Kentucky sadly, and it is not unique to Kentucky, but there is more than a little bit of history of vote fraud in our state, just even since I have been governor. Magoffin county comes to mind, there is others as well, you guys know, especially those of you from here, some of the history of that. The fact that our secretary of state was on national tv show, which I hesitate to suggest to anybody that anyone is partisan in the world of media coverage, that said, it was an interesting choice of places for her to go while the roll was being tallied, the votes were being tallied, and to call an election, and this is from a woman, who, with all due respect to her is not exactly rock solid when it comes to following the letter of the law. She is currently under investigation for misuse of voter files herself. Her father has already been convicted of multiple, i think 10 different federal charges related to election fraud specific to her race. He’s going to be sentenced and probably spend significant portions if not the rest of his life in prison. So this is a family and an office that has been very corrupt. State police have already raided that office, taken files out of their in recent months -- out of there in recent months. So for her to try to jump the gun and interject herself into this, a little suspect as well. We know there have been thousands of absentee ballots that were illegally counted. That is known. This, again, is something that is being looked into. We know that there are reports of people having been turned away, incorrectly turned away from various voting booths around the state, again, things that need to be corroborated and looked into. These are some of the things that we are in the process of determining. We know that in Jefferson county, there were a number of machines that did not work properly, so ballots were taken and just put in open boxes and people were told they would have been scanned in later. They may have been, they may not have been, we truly don’t know, that it is not typical that people would be asked to give a ballot that is supposed to be kept in confidence and scanned into a machine, just put into a box. And this happened in multiple locations.

All of this, to say that we simply want to ensure that there is integrity in the process. We owed this to the people of Kentucky. I love this state. I love this country. You know, there was a time as a military officer that i took an oath to defend this nation and to defend the constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. One of the things that constitution does is afford us as citizens the right to go to the ballot box, to have our voice heard, and to ensure there is integrity in the process. Gracious, it has been topical in this country.

You look at the last presidential election, lots of rumors and allegations but certainly a lot of discussion about the integrity of our electoral process. We look at happened -- at what happen literally less than a year ago at the last election in North Carolina, I think it was house district nine in that state, an election with frankly, things not unrelated to the things I have laid out you, but frankly a fraction of them, and ended up being tossed because the process was broken.

There was 900-some odd votes and two or three or four corroborated instances of things not being done right, so ultimately decisions were made to basically relook at that entire process. What will happen here -- what will happen here? There is a methodology to this. But we want the people of Kentucky to have absolute confidence that their votes were counted as they should have been counted, that the law was followed, and that regardless of whether they vote this side of the isle or that side of the aisle -- that they can always have confidence that the electoral process works. This is what i want for my kids and grandkids and the next governor, whether it is my cell for the attorney general. Bottom line, someone is going to be the next governor and everyone, that governor, every other legislator in state and constitutional officer, wants to be sure there is integrity in the process. So with that said, what did you to be aware of where we stand. I encourage, these are not mutually-exclusive things. The attorney general should be on a parallel track with us to ensure that by the time there is resolution, the proper governor is ready to take the stage and continue to run forward. This state is having incredible success on many, many fronts, all-time records as it relates to anything of an economic sort, the best unemployment we have ever had, the lowest ever, most people working in our history, greatest, month of revenue ever coming in, greatest amount of exports of our products going to the marketplace, greatest amount of capital being invested in the state the last four years, all of these are good, and it is critical to us as a commonwealth and to my family’s future who lives here and there kids as they have them, to be able to live in a state where we continue this momentum, because Kentucky’s upside is extraordinary and i want to make sure it continues on the right trajectory. I appreciate y’all being here. This process will unfold. The recanvassing process happens not when people wanted to, but literally by the letter of the law. We had up until next Tuesday to ask for the recanvass. To keep things moving quickly, we already asked for it, by law it will end up happening at 9:00 a.m. on Thursday of next week. That is when the recanvass will happen, and that will confirm or not confirm the current existing total, which you may know better than me, 5100 votes, or something like that. These are the reasons why we are moving forward with the recanvass. In the meantime, we are also corroborating some of these other things i mentioned, some of which are known in some of which are reported. We will have more information and as we have it, we will keep you guys in the loop. We really will. We will keep you as abreast of everything we have as we have it, and as we are able to share. I appreciate your interest in this. Do understand, and I will close with this. It applies to this race, but it applies to more than simply this race or simply to Kentucky. This is critical, especially as we move more and more into an electronic day and age and as the old and new are melded together. This is an American issue, it really is a concern, and we have seen it come up time and again. This, unfortunately, happens to be a time when it comes up on the radar screen in Kentucky, but we will get to the bottom of it and I am confident that, in the end, the right results will be delivered. And I will be entirely comfortable with whichever way they go, if I am confident the process has been served. That is really all I want. What I want from government, is good government.  It’s what all of us should want.

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19149]

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

He is the Democrat's dream POTUS. 

This is so fucking wrong on so many levels. As a Democrat I say fuck that son of a bitch. 

[Js1 85104]

Bevin officially concedes after a recanvass which didn’t change any vote totals.

[Voldemort86 2259]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Bevin officially concedes after a recanvass which didn’t change any vote totals.

I’m surprised. That guy seemed like he was going to take a page out of the trump playbook by fighting as dirty and nasty as humanly possible.

[Pancho 44470]