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Iowa State @ blOU 7pm on FOX

LTtxfan

By LTtxfan
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4th&Five
4th&Five

2 yards to win a game is better odds than 25 and having to defend. I’d go for 2 every time on the road. Plus there was interference. 

Girdwood
Girdwood

Wasn’t aware that OU grads could count past 10. Congrats bud.

THEHORN5561
THEHORN5561
NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Our kickers are horrible.  The PAT was legitimately not a sure thing.

Assalley was 5-5 for XPs tonight.

google indicates 2 pt conversion rates are 40.5% over the last 10 years.  Winning in OT is 50% no?

Edited by NowThis
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orangecat92

orangecat92 306

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Posted

If I am the underdog, I would go for 2 every time in end of game situations.  Just like Patterson’s brain dead call.  He was underdog, but he wanted to give Baylor another chance.  Really?  Only extenuating circumstance in Iowa state game was momentum.  But, Iowa state coach knows which team has better kicker.  Speaking of momentum, Iowa state had sooner defense on the ropes, so why not end it right there.  2 yards.  He had confidence his offense could get 2.  I think it’s a gutsy call.  

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Girdwood

Girdwood 118

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol you dumb bitch.  I show up when they suck (Always?) or lose.  I don’t gloat when they win.  Why the fuck do you think I’m tolerated better than your BYU ass?  

Front runner pussy. Fuck you and fuck OU. 
 

Don’t forget to call your fund manager Monday. I’m sure he and his employer will be enjoying your 1.3% during the holidays. 

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NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, orangecat92 said:

If I am the underdog, I would go for 2 every time in end of game situations.  Just like Patterson’s brain dead call.  He was underdog, but he wanted to give Baylor another chance.  Really?  Only extenuating circumstance in Iowa state game was momentum.  But, Iowa state coach knows which team has better kicker.  Speaking of momentum, Iowa state had sooner defense on the ropes, so why not end it right there.  2 yards.  He had confidence his offense could get 2.  I think it’s a gutsy call.  

chances are 40%. OT is 50%.   Considerations are kicker prowess, opposition injuries, opposition losing their momentum on either side of the ball. If the other side can't score, if their game plan has collapsed, QB got hurt. Lots of variables to go for 40% success. A 4th and 2 in tight space is much harder than having multiple chances to get a 3 or 7 from the 25. So, it's not ALWAYS go for 2, underdog or not.

anecdotally, I believe most teams lose it on this all or nothing call, right? Mack lost to Clemson, ISU lost to OU. It's a big deal.

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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4,412

Posted
Posted

You are pulling out convenient examples of failed attempts. WV beat Texas doing this last year. Kansas nearly beat Texas doing it this year. 

When you are the underdog and/or less talented team and/or on the road (ISU was all three), the convention is you go for two. You are on offense and pick the play to maximize whatever personnel or in-game gut feels you have. In overtime over several plays, the better team usually wins (it’s not “50-50”). Assuming your “40%” number is accurate (I’d guess not), whatever the number is is averages across 130 teams in countless situations. This play was based on ISU offense vs OU defense in this situation. Campbell may have felt his odds were a lot better than “40%”.

Even outside of end game situations, analytics have suggested going for two all the time. Oregon has done it for years. NFL coaches, since they moved the XP kick back, have been trying to wrap their mind around the maths that an xp kick is worth 0.92 points and a two point attempt is worth 0.94 points (pulling numbers out of ass but it’s something like this).

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Lat22

Lat22 3,994

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Posted
8 hours ago, NowThis said:

agree here - but who has the better kicker ?  I hate the hero call "lets win it!" . Cost Mack the game vs. Clemson.  It's way too risky.

 

and Texas is at ISU next week

The only time that I can remember seeing this “hero call” work was West Virginia beating our asses last season. 

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NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lat22 said:

The only time that I can remember seeing this “hero call” work was West Virginia beating our asses last season. 

yes, it's not often that it works.  Most often, it's a huge heartbreaker.  It's more than data analytics, the head coach has to use game conditions to make the choice.  Problem is that, for data worshippers, game conditions are not factored in -- so don't think analytics = God.

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,432

Posted
Posted

Going for 2 was absolutely the right call. As a Sooner fan, I promise you I would have MUCH rather they kicked at the time. For those saying ISU had the momentum, exactly. OU was completely rattled. OT lets both teams regroup and settle in. Take advantage right now.  Also, there weren't 0 seconds left on the TD. OU still has 3 timeouts and 25 seconds and a solid kicker. Even if ISU is 50% to win in OT (they aren't), they wouldn't be 50% to win the game by kicking, because OU will get a GWFG some percent of the time. 

Plus, ISU will have to beat OU's offense in OT. They just have to beat their D to get the 2 point conversion, which is obv much easier.

I think OU got on the bus to Waco at halftime thinking it was in the bag. Congrats to ISU on putting up a hell of a fight when lots of teams would have just lost 52-21. 

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,432

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Extra Anejo said:

I remember Baylor beating aggy on a two-point conversion back when they were in the Big-12. I remember because I heavily celebrated the aggy loss.

LOL I also remember this.  It was at Baylor and A&M was ranked and heavily favored. Dave South's call was the best ever. You hear him start the play call, pause, then you hear the dozens and dozens of Bear fans erupt in cheers and he is just silent for what feels like an eternity then mutters "Baylor wins"  

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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5,529

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Posted

I don’t blame ISU for going for the win in this situation.   They were playing in Norman and all of us who have watched games in that shit hole know the Refs  being a factor in the final out come in OT is a very real possibility.  Campbell saw multiple instances of this although the Refs threw some bones to ISU in the form a couple of calls goin their way,  so it came down to rolling dice.

What I did get from this game is not one team left on OU suxs schedule should be cowering in the corner about playing them.   Once they take a cut or blow to the head, they are like a prized fighter trying to figure out how to punch back because they don’t know how to respond to it.    The key is to not give up once they jump on you and have you down by 14 or 21.   Make a couple of stops like ISU did and chip away at that margin and you have a damn good chance to pull it off.  

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10,921

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57 minutes ago, Gene Parmesan said:

Winning in OT is 50/50. Just like winning the lottery. You either win or lose so it’s all 50/50. 

That you, Russ?   I have a cousin who legit believes this and will argue the point at every opportunity.  Actually, not sure if he still does this as I haven’t spoken to him in a decade.  

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bullet

bullet 1,596

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, dcar00 said:

I'm not against going for 2 but I thought ISU had all the mo and was stuffing Hurts.  of course, I know nothing about their kickers so if Al says they suck I will assume they suck and you need to have a reliable kicker in OT

Underdogs going for two overwhelmingly miss (unless they score too quick, in which case the other team goes down the field and wins with a FG).

I understand him doing it, but ISU was having to fight for yards every play.  It would be two nothing plays, then a big one.  Hurts was hurt so he wasn't as dangerous as usual.  I would have kicked.

Now they still almost did it despite interference.  If the guy wasn't pushed down, he probably could have held onto it.

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Billy Pilgrim

Billy Pilgrim 1,913

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Unfortunately, the receiver more in the middle of the field was wide open as 2 defenders went after the intended target.

 

I wish there was more publicity this morning on what should’ve been targeting on Lamb against the punt coverage guy. They missed a big opportunity to send a message to offensive players ducking their heads just before contact.

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