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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

By FORTY NINE TO ZERO
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Bonagura or whatever the fuck his name is, could not be more wrong and should not be allowed to post his projections any more.  There is absolutely no mathematical possibility where Texas falls to the Cheez-It Bowl.  What's more, the Big XII won't even have a representative in the Cheez-It Bowl, we're out of teams at that point because TCU lost to WVU.  I award him no points and may God have mercy on his soul.  

It's all dependent on whether OU gets into the CFP.  If they do, it's us or OSU for the Alamo Bowl.  If it's OSU to the Alamo Bowl, it's us to the CampingWorld Bowl.  

If OU doesn't get into the CFP or Baylor upsets them (either one), it's Oklahoma to the Alamo Bowl.  and then us or KSU to the CampingWorld Bowl, if not there then fall to Texas Bowl over OSU (unlikely).  

There is still a slim chance too that Baylor upsets them, and Oklahoma still gets an at-large to the Cotton Bowl to play a G5/G6 (whatever the Conf-USA bullshit is now) team.  But that bid team probably sees OU as not being terribly excited to head right back to JerryWorld a few weeks later.  

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HOOK'EMHOOAH

HOOK'EMHOOAH 1,610

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I'm not really particular about any bowl or playing any team, I just don't want to play in the cheez it bowl because I have to work that night. I tried to schedule off for wherever Texas may get selected to go bowling and over looked that one. I have the 28th and 31st scheduled off though. So hopefully we dont go to the shitass cheez it bowl.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Do not sweat us falling to the Cheez-It Bowl.  More than likely, our conference doesn't even have enough bowl eligible teams for them to even get to consider a Big XII team.  There are two-long shot scenarios where we fall to the Texas Bowl.  I guess it's technically possible we could fall all the way to the Liberty Bowl, but that's maybe a .5% chance of happening.  If I'm you, I'd plan around CampingWorld the most at this point, with a close second being the Alamo Bowl.  Distant third, but I guess worth keeping on your radar would be Texas Bowl.  

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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how exactly does Notre Dame fit into the ACC bowl situation?  I've seen the list of bowl games in selection order, but no site has a good explanation of how/when Notre Dame goes in that order.  I'll hang up and listen. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,947

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Good summary of how Notre Dame fits into NY6:

https://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2019/11/12/notre-dame-new-years-six-and-acc-bowl-bids-a-definitive-guide/

Quote

In all seriousness, with the Fiesta and Peach, two bowls with no conference tie-ins, hosting semifinals in the playoff, New Year’s Six locations are relegated to the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl. 

The Orange Bowl, as detailed in our handy guide, has the ACC locked in no matter what, meaning ND has to be ranked above the highest ranked B1G and SEC teams not in the playoffs, the Rose Bowl, and the Sugar Bowl. Yes, the Orange Bowl is the only bowl that we can’t swipe from the ACC. It’s the price of independence. Needless to say, quite a bit of chaos needs to go down for this to occur. It’s not impossible, but not likely.

That leaves the Cotton Bowl as the only other chance and with only one at-large slot available as the other will be taken by the highest ranked Group of Five (remember, the Peach and Fiesta are playoff games, so nowhere else for them to go). For the Irish to land there, it will be a matter of climbing the rankings.

How high? Well, top-12 is a good watermark.

 

All other bowls:

https://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/notre-dame-new-years-six-and-acc-bowl-tie-ins/

Quote

CITRUS BOWL & CAMPING WORLD BOWL

The Citrus Bowl and Camping World Bowl are in a weird “tier” all their own. Below the New Year’s Six, and above the ACC Tier 1 Bowls, the Citrus Bowl and Camping World Bowl are the first of bowls that Notre Dame can “steal” an ACC bid from, as long as they are within one win the ACC team that would be in line for that spot.

There’s some additional weirdness here as the Citrus Bowl isn’t a guaranteed ACC bid. The ACC only gets a bid to the Citrus Bowl if a B1G team is in the Orange Bowl. If an SEC team lands in the Orange Bowl, the ACC doesn’t get a spot.

In short:

  • Citrus Bowl – SEC vs B1G or ACC/Notre Dame, if B1G team in Orange Bowl
  • Camping World Bowl – Big XII vs ACC/Notre Dame

ACC TIER 1 BOWLS

Much like the Citrus and Camping World Bowls, ND can take the ACC slot if they are within one win of the qualifying ACC team. 

There is still some weirdness in this tier as the Music City Bowl and Gator Bowl are contractually obligated to each get an ACC team three times. Currently, the Gator Bowl has priority if they wish to select an ACC team.

There is no selection order. The bowls, ACC, and schools all collaborate to fill the below:

  • Belk Bowl – SEC vs. ACC/Notre Dame
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl – B1G vs. ACC/Notre Dame
  • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl – Pac-12 vs. ACC/Notre Dame
  • Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – SEC vs. B1G or ACC/ Notre Dame

    OR
  • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – SEC vs. B1G or ACC/Notre Dame

ACC TIER 2 BOWLS

And now things get incredibly simple along with incredibly sad if the Irish end up in this tier.

Bowls select in order and are as follows:

  • Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – AAC vs. ACC/Notre Dame
  • Walk On’s Independence Bowl – SEC vs. ACC/Notre Dame
  • Quick Lane Bowl – B1G vs. ACC/Notre Dame

 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,947

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Still a lot to shake out.... but assuming that after championship Sunday that Alabama or Georgia is the highest ranked SEC or B1G team, then they would go to the Orange Bowl.

2 loss teams would likely be:

Minnesota, Either Baylor or OU, Penn State, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama....

This assumes Wisc. Losing and Oregon losing. The Wisconsin loss is really the only relevant loss here really.

So Either Georgia or Alabama go to the Sugar Bowl with the other going to the Orange. Minnesota will likely be ranked ahead of Penn State which will drive both schools below the rank of a 2, 2 loss SEC teams... but ahead of another (most likely Florida as Florida lost to Georgia).

My guess is the Sugar takes Bama as Georgia was there last year and Georgia gets the Orange. But either way, the SEC will get the Orange most likely

 

So that means the Citrus is out for Notre Dame. So the next bowl up is the Camping World. They have no real shot at getting < a 12 tanking as even with a Baylor, Wisconsin, and Oregon lost; the best they’d likely do is 13 as I think the committee will rank Michigan & Auburn (both with one more loss even) higher than Notre Dame ....  and there is always the possibility that Memphis jumps them.

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Guest Lobo

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Texas 7-5, Oklahoma State 8-4, Kansas State 8-4, Iowa State 7-5 

Listen in tie-breaker conference standing order.  Nothing more than that.  This group will fill the Alamo Bowl thru the Liberty Bowl.  Championship Saturday can shake this up, but I'm just heavily by odds at this point.  

So just say you're the selection committee for those four bowls, looking at those four teams.  Alamo Bowl considers this:

6 years since Texas played there, 3 years for OSU, 5 years for KSU, and last year for Iowa State.  Texas is the most appealing from there, though OSU/KSU aren't far behind given how they travel and possibly being ranked coming out Championship Saturday with some folks ahead of them dropping out.  

Then you get to the CampingWorld Bowl.  OSU was just there in 2017.  None of the other three teams have ever been there.  Texas or KSU are the logical choices there.

Texas Bowl in Houston looks and says:  UT there two years ago, KSU there 3 years ago, never for ISU or OSU.  OSU is  great choice for this game given proximity and alumni base in Houston.

Although they were just there two years ago, Iowa State then heads to the nearby Liberty Bowl.  

The Big XII does not meddle in bowl selections to any degree approaching what the SEC does.  But don't be mistaken, they do whisper certain things to certain bowls to keep an eye on the past and the future.  Our fan apathy in light of Herman's back half of the season will certainly be taken into account, as will bowl games just like having the "#xx" thing next to at least one team's name in all the marketing stuff leading up to the game.  It's good for the league to have a brand name show up to Orlando, but then---the game is up against the Cotton Bowl which is Big XII territory and then some.  

I dunno, as much as I'm checked out on Herman...I don't see how this team falls past the CampingWorld Bowl and I contend the Alamo Bowl getting Utah/Oregon loser or USC would absolutely salivate at that marquee marquee.  Although NYE can be tricky for ratings, that'd have to be one of the highest rated (if not highest) non NY6/CFP bowl game of the whole year.  I would think the Alamo's Pac-12 side would be the most clear.  Utah gets into the CFP, then it's Oregon to the Rose, and USC on the Riverwalk.  If Utah misses the CFP, they go to the Rose Bowl, and Oregon heads to San Antonio.  If Oregon wins the game, they are in Rose, and Utah then heads to the Alamo City (I don't see the last at-large NY6 berth all the way in Texas going to a Pac-12 team).  Only three scenarios Alamo needs to consider and each of them involves a different team.  I think Utah v. Iowa State loses a helluva lot of luster.  But a Texas/Oregon, Texas/USC, or Texas/Utah...that starts to look very sexy to them.  

I would still think Citrus would grab Notre Dame, but I guess they could still end up in CampingWorld Bowl.  That would obviously be great to whoop their ass at Disney, where unlike at the Catholic Church, a kid can be a kid again.  and safely.

Edited by Lobo
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,947

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Notre Dame’s almost has to go to the Camping World Bowl.

An outside shot would be if Georgia beats LSU and both going to the playoffs AND the CFP ranks Minnesota or Penn State Higher than Florida or Bama.

The highest ranked of Florida and Bama go to Sugar, and then the B1G team goes to the Orange.

That gives the Citrus the Notre Dame / ACC tie in and the Irish go there.

Outside of that I don’t see Notre Dame headed anywhere else as I can’t see the committee ranking them in the top 12

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HOOK'EMHOOAH

HOOK'EMHOOAH 1,610

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Do not sweat us falling to the Cheez-It Bowl.  More than likely, our conference doesn't even have enough bowl eligible teams for them to even get to consider a Big XII team.  There are two-long shot scenarios where we fall to the Texas Bowl.  I guess it's technically possible we could fall all the way to the Liberty Bowl, but that's maybe a .5% chance of happening.  If I'm you, I'd plan around CampingWorld the most at this point, with a close second being the Alamo Bowl.  Distant third, but I guess worth keeping on your radar would be Texas Bowl.  

As I said, I'm all set for the 28th or 31st. There are 6 bowl eligible teams in the conference and I'm not exactly sure what tie-ins there are other than the ones you mentioned plus the sugar bowl.

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8,304

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14 hours ago, perfectchaos007 said:

My pecking order:

 Texas Bowl v. Tennessee. (Battle of the UT's)

Camping World v UNC (Return of the Mack Brown)

Alamo Bowl v. Washington (It's a more winnable game than against Oregon or Utah)

 

Bowl games against non-sec teams scare me to death

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Halohal

Halohal 498

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Last year's swag bag...

 

Texas Bowl (Baylor vs. Vanderbilt): Gift suite; Academy Sports + Outdoors gift card; Adidas backpack; belt buckle

Cheez-it Bowl (Cal vs. TCU): — Fossil watch with engraved caseback; JBL Charge 3 Bluetooth speaker; Baggo bag toss tailgate cornhole set; Yeti Roadie 20 cooler; Yeti rambler; dry duffel bag; RuMe reveal quart bag; Branded Bills cap; Dollar Shave Club starter set.

Camping World Bowl (West Virginia vs. Syracuse): $400 Best Buy gift card; Ogio backpack with luggage tag; Fossil watch

Liberty bowl (Missouri vs. Oklahoma State): Shopping trip to Memphis’ Bass Pro Shops; Bose SoundLink micro Bluetooth speaker; Bulova watch; Nike athletic shoes; sport sandals; backpack and sunglasses; football

Alamo Bowl (Iowa State vs. Washington State): $425 Amazon gift card; Fossil watch; mini helmet; team panoramic photo

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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So the liberty bowl which is one of the lowest tier bowls we could go to, has by far the sweetest swag bag?  Alamo and camping world in Texas bowl sound the worst.   

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,947

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Did the Cheez-it bowl just rip off a generic dad gift list:

Quote

Fossil watch with engraved caseback; JBL Charge 3 Bluetooth speaker; Baggo bag toss tailgate cornhole set; Yeti Roadie 20 cooler; Yeti rambler; dry duffel bag; RuMe reveal quart bag; Branded Bills cap; Dollar Shave Club starter set.

 

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1,648

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Some of you folks need to be careful what you wish for.  We don't want any part of a 10-2 ND team this year.  We suck and we just fired half our coaches.    We need to play the weakest team possible in a bowl.  In a few years, it won't matter what bowl we won, as long as we win it and start building momentum.  Gaining 1-Watson of yards in a giant Bowl loss doesn't help us at all.

Here's projections from various parts on the web:

 

Furk. A bunch of ranked 10-2 teams and a lower tier G5 team that should be below us.   There is no go option in those projections.

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Amazing that two "college football writers" have two non-SEC teams in the Texas Bowl.  Quite curious that the Cheez-It Bowl gets Texas considering we don't have enough teams to get down to that game.  Also fun how the Liberty Bowl ignores its SEC obligation.  Where the fuck do these writers get their intel?  Their own fucking websites have the proper bowl alignment procedures.  

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Guest Lobo

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Yes, the SEC won't have enough teams this year.  But they can fill their Pool of 6.  They'll ditch the Birmingham and Independence Bowl long before the Liberty or Houston (and they have to, legally speaking).  They'll get two into the CFP/NY6 pool.  Then Citrus.  That's three total.  Pool of 6 is obviously 6 more, so that's 9 total.  They have 10 bowl eligible teams.  Those writers are dumb, the SEC is not gonna swap out a team to head to the Birmingham Bowl to collect $1.7mm and hold back from playing in the Liberty Bowl or Texas Bowl where their team would collect a $4-$6mm bowl payout.  

Edited by Lobo
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Rockwell Torrey

Rockwell Torrey 1,280

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5 minutes ago, mdleast said:

How about the Liberty Bowl vs Navy? That seems pretty no win-ish to me.

https://watchstadium.com/news/brett-mcmurphys-college-football-bowl-projections-after-week-14-12-02-2019/

Hell no.  Navy would require our defense to play disciplined, assignment football.  We’re not getting there in three weeks.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,947

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17 hours ago, Lobo said:

Yes, the SEC won't have enough teams this year.  But they can fill their Pool of 6.  They'll ditch the Birmingham and Independence Bowl long before the Liberty or Houston (and they have to, legally speaking).  They'll get two into the CFP/NY6 pool.  Then Citrus.  That's three total.  Pool of 6 is obviously 6 more, so that's 9 total.  They have 10 bowl eligible teams.  Those writers are dumb, the SEC is not gonna swap out a team to head to the Birmingham Bowl to collect $1.7mm and hold back from playing in the Liberty Bowl or Texas Bowl where their team would collect a $4-$6mm bowl payout.  

TWo teams in the CFP / NY6 pool?

Try 3 minimum:

LSU - CFP

Georgia - Sugar most likely but Alabama could sneak in here if Georgia upsets LSU and LSU makes the playoffs or if Georgia gets throttled.

Alabama or Florida or Georgia  (if not in Sugar) - highest ranked) - to Orange

Then whichever didn’t go to Orange gets the Citrus but also possibly the Cotton if they’re ranked higher than Penn State or Minnesota.

Auburn in Citrus if Alabama and Florida get NY6 bowls.

 

So there’s a potential for 4 teams in the CFP / NY6 from the SEC, but likely 3

 

Total Bowl eligible SEC teams

LSU 12-0 (CFP)

Georgia 11-1 (Sugar)

Alabama 10-2 (Orange or Cotton) / Citrus If not in NY6

Florida 10-2 (Cotton or Orange) / Citrus if not in NY6

Auburn 9-3 (Citrus) / (Outback)

Tennessee 7-5 (Outback) / (Taxslayer)

A&M 7-5 (Texas) / (Texas)

Kentucky 7-5 (Taxslayer) / (Nashville)

Miss St 6-6 (Nashville) / (Belk)

Edited by Dnaguy
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Ignatius

Ignatius 4,017

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On 12/1/2019 at 11:01 PM, tx 3 putt said:

 

my first UT game was bluebonnet bowl v air force, at rice stadium. met earl campbell too 

ut lost 

Lulz that was the bowl game at the end of my freshman year.  We got beat, I lost my wallet at the game, and several drunken hours later I got a panel van sliding door slammed on my hand in the parking lot of the Yucatán Liquor Stand.

Good times....

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