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Larry T. Spider

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Oliver looks like a great candidate but I would recommend falling back to a State House or Senate race.  Right now it seems unlikely the GOP can retake the House of Reps in DC, but they have a high chance of retaining power in Austin. If you want to create a PAC that can best help liberal causes go with the boring state races that few pay attention to.

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8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Oliver looks like a great candidate but I would recommend falling back to a State House or Senate race.  Right now it seems unlikely the GOP can retake the House of Reps in DC, but they have a high chance of retaining power in Austin. If you want to create a PAC that can best help liberal causes go with the boring state races that few pay attention to.

Agreed. I also think some seats that could flip from red to blue will be getting attention/money. It might be worth looking at a seat that went blue last time but is far from a lock. 

Edited to add: Julie Oliver lost to Williams 53-44 just two years ago and it is a US district. She seems like a great person to support but that task might be too big for what we are trying to accomplish here. 

Edited by Larry T. Spider
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7 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Agreed. I also think some seats that could flip from red to blue will be getting attention/money. It might be worth looking at a seat that went blue last time but is far from a lock. 

good point. The Beto effect impacted many down ballot races that helped Democrats. Many unknowns on the high profile 2020 races affecting other races. Some new Dems could be in trouble if the status quo flows backwards somewhat.

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1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I got the above from a lurker that wanted to contribute. Many more people read surly politics than the regular posters. From him/her:

I wanted to share this link for people looking to Flip the Texas House. Also has info for Julie Oliver and how to get involved with registering voters in her district. Please feel free to share, I did not want to spam other forums to get my count up to post.

You mean to tell me there are other political masochists concerned citizens out there that read the shit incredibly intelligent, very thoughtful, and emboldened analysis we spew provide on this board?!?

Edited by bolverk
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Im going to do a few short write ups as I have time throughout the week. These will be TEXAS HOUSE districts that I think we should investigate further. I have about 10 lined up and will do 1 a day. Feel free to chime in with more info on these people.

First up is Texas 45, which is just south of Austin. This includes Kyle, San Marcos, Dripping Springs, Johnson City, etc. This was a democrat gain in the last election with Zwiener getting 51% of the vote. She does use Act Blue. Here is the district map. https://www.texastribune.org/directory/districts/tx-house/45/

Here is basic wiki info on her. She seems a little surly. 

When Zwiener questioned Republican Jason Isaac, who represented her district in the Texas House of Representatives, about his support for Texas Senate Bill 4, which effectively banned sanctuary cities in Texas, over Facebook, Isaac accused her of "trolling" and blocked her. She decided to run for his seat in the Texas House and declared her candidacy in March 2017 for the Texas House of Representatives elections, 2018 and received assistance from Run for Something. Zwiener was pregnant during the campaign and gave birth in summer of 2018. She finished in second place to Rebecca Bell-Metereau in the Democratic Party primary election, but advanced to a runoff election and won by less than 200 votes. Zwiener went into labor at an anti-Donald Trump protest, and continued to campaign from the hospital before and after giving birth. She won in the general election, receiving 51 percent of the vote, defeating Republican nominee Ken Strange, who polled 49 percent of the ballots cast. She succeeded Isaac in the state House; Isaac did not seek reelection to the House but ran unsuccessfully for his party's nomination in Texas's 21st congressional district.

Zwiener is bisexual and is one of the founding members of the first LGBTQ Caucus in the Texas Legislature.

https://www.erinforyall.com/

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6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

You mean to tell me there are other political masochists concerned citizens out there that read the shit incredibly intelligent, very thoughtful, and emboldened analysis we spew provide on this board?!?

Hey man, who doesn't want to see a bunch of monkeys in a cage flinging handfuls of crap at each other?

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I would like a commitment from the PAC that any money left over or not donated to the Democratic candidate be given to their Republican opponent as a show of good faith. Also it will help to flip Republicans over to our side if we show that we want to work together and not further divide our country along party lines. Like when all the Democrats chipped in to rebuild the NC GOP office that got bombed. Just look at how much that helped in NC. 

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14 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I would like a commitment from the PAC that any money left over or not donated to the Democratic candidate be given to their Republican opponent as a show of good faith. Also it will help to flip Republicans over to our side if we show that we want to work together and not further divide our country along party lines. Like when all the Democrats chipped in to rebuild the NC GOP office that got bombed. Just look at how much that helped in NC. 

Agreed.

Image result for 9/11 front steps capitol"

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18 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I would like a commitment from the PAC that any money left over or not donated to the Democratic candidate be given to their Republican opponent as a show of good faith. Also it will help to flip Republicans over to our side if we show that we want to work together and not further divide our country along party lines. Like when all the Democrats chipped in to rebuild the NC GOP office that got bombed. Just look at how much that helped in NC. 

Love it.

Image result for nodding gif

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good point. The Beto effect impacted many down ballot races that helped Democrats. Many unknowns on the high profile 2020 races affecting other races. Some new Dems could be in trouble if the status quo flows backwards somewhat.


On our last Beto volunteer conference call he mentioned that he plans to stay in politics and obliquely mentioned his desire to help out in local Texas races and how important flipping state legislatures like in Virginia.

He had the most joint appearances with down ballot candidates in places like Virginia and North Carolina of any candidate in the race.

He also mentioned he admires the work Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams are doing.

All that to say, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we get an announcement from him in a few weeks stating the formation of a new organization focused on local/state level races.

The Pod Save America guys have some similar campaigns with that focus and he’s pretty tight with them. A joint venture between PSA and led by Beto could be a good one.
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I’ve seen some estimates of 9-10 US House seats be re-apportioned in 2021 to states gaining population. Texas should get 3 of them. Having the Texas House blue should help with the new election map being drawn. Instead of the current 13 of 36 US seats from Texas, Dems would get closer to half of 39.

So by winning a net 9 seats in the Texas House in 2020, the national Dem party should see a net 6 seats in the US House for the next decade. That’s more US reps that most states have in total.

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Bad Teammate suggested we make a community page through Act Blue so that all of our contributions to the eventual candidate can be collected in one place, without having to create a complicated official organization. Does anybody have experience with this?

https://support.actblue.com/donors/raising-money-for-campaigns-and-organizations/guide-to-community-forms/

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5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’ve seen some estimates of 9-10 US House seats be re-apportioned in 2021 to states gaining population. Texas should get 3 of them. Having the Texas House blue should help with the new election map being drawn. Instead of the current 13 of 36 US seats from Texas, Dems would get closer to half of 39.

So by winning a net 9 seats in the Texas House in 2020, the national Dem party should see a net 6 seats in the US House for the next decade. That’s more US reps that most states have in total.

The problem with that idea is if the legislature does not pass the new districts the job goes to a backup commission full of Republicans.

So unless Democrats in a hypothetical Democrat controlled House agree to the Republican's maps the Senate will turn it over to the commission.

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On 11/11/2019 at 10:12 AM, Larry T. Spider said:

I came here to make fun of Briscoe Cain but then I read this and felt bad.

AUSTIN — A Texas lawmaker spoke publicly for the first time Thursday about his struggle with autism.

Rep. Briscoe Cain revealed he has Asperger's Syndrome during a speech on the House floor marking Autism Awareness Month. Flanked by his colleagues at the front microphone of the chamber, the Deer Park Republican said it was time for him to tell his story.

Why is he just now coming out about his "struggle with autism"?  Being a republican the odds are more likely he's a lying fuckbag piece of shit trying to drum up sympathy than an actual handicapped disabled challenged person.

 

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39 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Why is he just now coming out about his "struggle with autism"?  Being a republican the odds are more likely he's a lying fuckbag piece of shit trying to drum up sympathy than an actual handicapped disabled challenged person.

 

I mean, there is little to stop someone like him from claiming autism without actually having it.

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  • 1 month later...

If this is really going to be a thing, this article has some good info as to where a Surly Lib PAC would get the most bang for its buck.

 

 

House Republican targets in 2020

In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats won 12 districts previously held by Republicans. Now, Republicans want those seats back.

 
dem-map-570-ee89841f8b.jpg

Fort Worth

Dallas

Waco

Austin

Houston

San Antonio

District No. Current Representative Margin of victory*
45 Erin Zwiener
 
3.2
47 Vikki Goodwin
 
4.8
52 James Talarico
 
3.5
65 Michelle Beckley
 
2.3
102 Ana-Maria Ramos
 
5.8
105 Thresa "Terry" Meza
 
9.5
113 Rhetta Andrews Bowers
 
7
114 John Turner
11.3
115 Julie Johnson
13.6
132 Gina Calanni
 
0.2
135 Jon E. Rosenthal
 
3.2
136 John Bucy III
 
9.6

*Margin of victory is in percentage points.

  • Source: Texas Secretary of State
  • Credit: Stephanie Adeline

 

House Democrat targets in 2020

In the 2018 midterm elections, Beto O'Rourke won or came within single digits in 22 Republican-held districts, which Democrats are now targeting. Of those 22, here are the 17 seats where the incumbent won by single digits.

 
gop-map-570-3e71707050.jpg

Fort Worth

Dallas

Waco

Killeen

Temple

Austin

Houston

San Antonio

District No. Current Representative Margin of victory*
26 Rick Miller
 
5
28 John Zerwas (resigned)
 
8.3
54 Brad Buckley
 
7.6
64 Lynn Stucky
 
8.3
66 Matt Shaheen
 
0.6
67 Jeff Leach
 
2.3
92 Jonathan Stickland
 
2.4
93 Matt Krause
 
7.7
94 Tony Tinderholt
 
8.6
96 Bill Zedler
 
3.7
97 Craig Goldman
 
8.3
108 Morgan Meyer
 
0.3
112 Angie Chen Button
 
2.1
121 Steve Allison
 
8.4
126 Sam Harless
 
9.7
134 Sarah Davis
 
6.3
138 Dwayne Bohac
 
0.1

*Margin of victory is in percentage points.

  • Source: Texas Secretary of State
  • Credit: Stephanie Adeline

 

 

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On 11/12/2019 at 5:13 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’ve seen some estimates of 9-10 US House seats be re-apportioned in 2021 to states gaining population. Texas should get 3 of them. Having the Texas House blue should help with the new election map being drawn. Instead of the current 13 of 36 US seats from Texas, Dems would get closer to half of 39.

So by winning a net 9 seats in the Texas House in 2020, the national Dem party should see a net 6 seats in the US House for the next decade. That’s more US reps that most states have in total.

I hope this is somewhat true. I would like pubs to actually be scared of losing seats and actually campaign and actually show that they care about the people.

 

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On 12/14/2019 at 2:32 PM, workswithseed said:

I hope this is somewhat true. I would like pubs to actually be scared of losing seats and actually campaign and actually show that they care about the people.

 

Will this be before or after my weekend-long threesome with Sela Ward and Jennifer Connelly?  I mean, since we're posting wildly unrealistic fantasies and all, I wanted to get in on the game.

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On 12/14/2019 at 2:32 PM, workswithseed said:

I hope this is somewhat true. I would like pubs to actually be scared of losing seats and actually campaign and actually show that they care about the people.

 

I'm sure they are scared of losing seats, but the latter half of your sentence is as Brisket and Biff posited: laughable.

I suppose you might argue that they care about SOME people, but considering that they view many citizens as human scum, I would guess the number is not large. I am rather looking forward to meeting any of the candidates in my district that might come knocking.

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21 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

I'd argue that they just feel too comfortable. I mean, brisket thinks everyone with an r after thier name is going to Mexico and just shooting them all willy nilly. 

I mean, obviously he doesn't care if younger republicans are trying to make the party better, they're just not trying enough. 

What are some examples of making the party better? What views do young republicans have that the party doesn't follow currently? I know College Republicans endorsed a tougher stance on climate change than the GOP, but is there anything else?

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Just now, SimonBolivar said:

What are some examples of making the party better? What views do young republicans have that the party doesn't follow currently? I know College Republicans endorsed a tough stance on climate change than the GOP, but is there anything else?

I mean, some of them might be in favor of putting brown people in nicer cages.*

 

* Because their dad owns a cage contracting outfit.

 

Seriously.  What garbage.  The GOP in this state is a creature of Paxton, Patrick, and Trump.  There is no mysterious "self-improvement" plan going on there.  Nobody with any sense is buying that.

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1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

What are some examples of making the party better? What views do young republicans have that the party doesn't follow currently? I know College Republicans endorsed a tougher stance on climate change than the GOP, but is there anything else?

https://time.com/4417781/republican-convention-young-republicans/

This was back in 2016, but they're not dead.

I also think the "Change my Mind" by Crowder are good talks with opposition to make positive look on basic foundations of conservatism. I'm bias, but that's how I see it.

 

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On 11/12/2019 at 12:25 PM, RayDog said:

The problem with that idea is if the legislature does not pass the new districts the job goes to a backup commission full of Republicans.

So unless Democrats in a hypothetical Democrat controlled House agree to the Republican's maps the Senate will turn it over to the commission.

 

Wait, what? What kind of bullshit is this? Can you or anybody explain/give more info?

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54 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Wait, what? What kind of bullshit is this? Can you or anybody explain/give more info?

ballotpedia has a good page on it.

Redistricting_in_Texas

The key part is;

"If the state legislature is unable to approve a state legislative redistricting plan, a backup commission must draw the lines. This backup commission, established in 1948, comprises the following members:

Lieutenant governor
Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives
Attorney general
State comptroller
Commissioner of the General Land Office"

In other words, the fix is in.

 

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2 minutes ago, RayDog said:

ballotpedia has a good page on it.

Redistricting_in_Texas

The key part is;

"If the state legislature is unable to approve a state legislative redistricting plan, a backup commission must draw the lines. This backup commission, established in 1948, comprises the following members:

Lieutenant governor
Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives
Attorney general
State comptroller
Commissioner of the General Land Office"

In other words, the fix is in.

 

When they are done, there won't be but 2-3 non-white, non-Republican representatives in the state of Texas.  You'll see districts that run 700 miles from the Valley to Amarillo to make sure they are 55% GOP.  Then they'll cram minority-heavy neighborhoods into districts that are 100% minority.  This IS the GOP plan for the future.  It's not exactly a secret.  Seriously, people have actually released their plans.

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

When they are done, there won't be but 2-3 non-white, non-Republican representatives in the state of Texas.  You'll see districts that run 700 miles from the Valley to Amarillo to make sure they are 55% GOP.  Then they'll cram minority-heavy neighborhoods into districts that are 100% minority.  This IS the GOP plan for the future.  It's not exactly a secret.  Seriously, people have actually released their plans.

Mind sharing? 

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2 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Mind sharing? 

Dude, seriously?  You're unfamiliar with Thomas Hofeller?

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-secret-files-of-the-master-of-modern-republican-gerrymandering

Just one little snippet:

Quote

Other files provide new details about Hofeller’s work for Republicans across the country. Hofeller collected data on the citizen voting-age population in North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona, among other states, as far back as 2011. Hofeller was part of a Republican effort to add a citizenship question to the census, which would have allowed political parties to obtain more precise citizenship data ahead of the 2020 redistricting cycle. State legislative lines could then have been drawn based on the number of citizen voters, which Hofeller believed would make it easier to pack Democrats and minorities into fewer districts, giving an advantage to Republicans.

Other documents show that Hofeller was hired by a Massachusetts Republican who sought to use the Voting Rights Act provision for majority/minority seats to draw a single district containing all of Boston, so that Republicans could make inroads into an otherwise entirely Democratic congressional delegation.

So, you know, exactly what I posted.

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52 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

When they are done, there won't be but 2-3 non-white, non-Republican representatives in the state of Texas.  You'll see districts that run 700 miles from the Valley to Amarillo to make sure they are 55% GOP.  Then they'll cram minority-heavy neighborhoods into districts that are 100% minority.  This IS the GOP plan for the future.  It's not exactly a secret.  Seriously, people have actually released their plans.

I hope they go as extreme as they possibly can based on 2022 demographics. Because, if they do, they will be screwed by 2030.

The boomer and older percentage of eligible voters in Texas will drop from 30% to 15% during the 2020s. It will hit rural counties that are not already heavily Latino even harder.

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Anyone wanting to have a conversation about gerrymandering should know who Hofeller is.

And it was a pretty huge story last year when his daughter exposed his awful ass after his death.

Thomas Brooks Hofeller (April 1943 – August 26, 2018)[1] was a Republican political strategist primarily known for his involvement in gerrymandering electoral district maps favorable for Republicans.[2][3][4] David Daley of The New Yorker referred to Hofeller as "the master of the modern gerrymander."[5] According to The New York Times, Hofeller's "mastery of redistricting strategy helped propel the Republican Party from underdog to the dominant force in state legislatures and the United States House of Representatives."[1]


In the early 1970s, Hofeller developed a "computerized mapping system" for the California State Assembly.[1] In the 1980s, he was behind a strategy to increase Republican power in the South by using the 1965 Voting Rights Act to create more majority-black districts and thus pack African-Americans into fewer districts and make it easier for Republican candidates to win the remaining white districts.[1] According to The New York Times, Hofeller's views on skewed maps appeared to be motivated by a desire to strengthen Republican power; during the 1980s, Hofeller opposed Democratic maps that were skewed in favor of Democrats, but later became an advocate for similar maps skewed to favor Republicans.[1]

Hofeller played a key part in gerrymandering notoriously lopsided maps, such as those in North Carolina (turning a 7-to-6 seat Democratic edge in the House to a 10-to-3 Republican edge) and Pennsylvania.[1] He once said, "Redistricting is like an election in reverse. It's a great event. Usually the voters get to pick the politicians. In redistricting, the politicians get to pick the voters."[6] Hofeller normally hid his tracks and advised his clients to do the same, warning them, "Don’t reveal more than necessary," and, "Emails are the tool of the devil." In 2017, as he was deposed under oath in a federal lawsuit challenging gerrymandered North Carolina congressional district maps, he was asked about directives Republicans had given him. "There were no instructions given to you in writing?" "There’s no paper trail against which we can evaluate your description of the instructions?" "No," he responded to both questions while denying he recalled cautioning the operatives against giving him written instructions.[1] Jowei Chen, a professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan testified in July 2019 that he had found that Hofeller had manually entered "%18_ap_blk" into nearly every draft of his mapping software when he mapped North Carolina's districts; "%18_ap_blk" is a formula that shows the number of African American citizens of voting age in each district.[7]

From June 2009 to August 2018, Hofeller earned just over $2 million from the Republican National Committee.[8] From January 2017 to July 2018, he was paid $422,000.[8]


After his death, Hofeller's daughter made available computer hard drives that had been in her father's possession.[6] Files on the hard drives showed that he played a key part in the decision of the Trump administration to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, a decision that was challenged in the federal courts in the case Department of Commerce v. New York. Hofeller had conducted a study in 2015 which found that adding such a question would make it possible to draw district boundaries that "would be advantageous to Republicans and non-Hispanic whites." Hofeller himself wrote the portion of the Department of Justice letter used to justify why the Trump administration had made this decision. The letter claimed that adding the citizenship question was necessary to enforce the 1965 Voting Rights Act.[2] The New York Times described the files as "the most explicit evidence to date that the Trump administration added the question to the 2020 United States Census to advance Republican Party interests."[2]

In May 2019, the plaintiffs suing over the 2020 United States Census citizenship question cited the 2015 Hofeller analysis and other documents in a motion for sanctions, saying "many striking similarities" existed between the unpublished Hofeller analysis and the United States Department of Commerce's decision to seek a citizenship question on the Census.[2] The federal government, in response, said that the Hofeller study "played no role in the department's December 2017 request" for a citizenship question on the Census.[2] In June 2019, the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, citing the Hofeller document, remanded the case to the U.S. district court to determine whether the Trump administration's stated rationale for adding a citizenship question to the 2020 census was in fact a pretext for a discriminatory purpose (the dilution of voting power of Hispanic voters in order to advantage Republicans and non-Hispanic whites).[9]

On July 5, 2019, Judge George J. Hazel of the United States District Court for the District of Maryland, which is part of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, approved the commencement of discovery into the Hofeller files.


The three-judge panel cited Hofeller's files "in concluding that he had used racial statistics to shape his maps despite public claims to the contrary." The court also cited from his files that "metadata on maps of state legislative districts showed they were almost completely drawn months before Republican legislative leaders publicly adopted the standards for drawing them."[11]


He was literally the architect of racist voter suppression through gerrymandering and Republicans in multiple states and the Trump administration used his work as the basis for their redistricting plans and the plan to use the census to further suppress the minority vote.

The files his daughter exposed after his death literally spell out in great detail how to draw districts that would be advantageous to Republicans and non-Hispanic whites. He wrote part of the letter, attributed to the DOJ, defending Trump’s plan to put the citizenship question on the census.

There is no argument to make against the claim that Republicans purposefully create districts based on disenfranchising racial minorities. We have direct evidence that proves it.

Anyone claiming otherwise is either lying or ignorant.
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24 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

I tried to do a search on the paragraph and I didn't see anything come up, fucking pay wall. 

No I've ever heard of the dude before. It does seem like his last name fits him.

I may not recall all the details, but from my memory, he was a Republican elections consultant who helped draw up the North Carolina congressional districts that were found to be unconstitutional (egregiously gerrymandered).

Moreover, he was also involved in crafting the plan to get a citizenship question on the Census, knowing through his own research that it would suppress response rates from immigrant communities and would thus result in an undercount, which would assist in future gerrymandering.

Wilbur Ross, head of the US Treasury (underwhich the Census operates) denied that the reason for trying to include the citizenship was to suppress the response rate.

After Hofeller died, his daughter found the research and notes showing that her dad was indeed trying to fuck over immigrant representation. She was so appalled by what her dad did, she brought the documents to light and the citizenship question was dropped.

Fin

Edited by bolverk
thus not those
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