Surly Lib PAC

[Bama Chick 28596]

Well then settle in and educate yourself by reading the actual evidence then.


https://www.commoncause.org/resource/the-hofeller-files/


https://theintercept.com/2019/11/05/gerrymandering-files-thomas-hofeller-public/


https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-secret-files-of-the-master-of-modern-republican-gerrymandering

Or watch a video.

[workswithseed 2036]

7 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

What are some examples of making the party better? What views do young republicans have that the party doesn't follow currently? I know College Republicans endorsed a tougher stance on climate change than the GOP, but is there anything else?

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

On 12/16/2019 at 9:09 PM, workswithseed said:

 

I find this format of pop-up debate stands entertaining but they never actually prove anything. I will give the host props that from time to time, he relents some ground but basically he walks up prepared and then invites passerbys to debate him.  However it doesn't prove much if people walking by can't perfectly defend each of their positions against some of his arguments. In some cases, the passerby may be wrong but in some cases they're just unprepared which is 100% ok as well.

You can pretty much take any topic of interest and prove that the average person is ignorant of it at some level.

[workswithseed 2036]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I find this format of pop-up debate stands entertaining but they never actually prove anything. I will give the host props that from time to time, he relents some ground but basically he walks up prepared and then invites passerbys to debate him.  However it doesn't prove much if people walking by can't perfectly defend each of their positions against some of his arguments. In some cases, the passerby may be wrong but in some cases they're just unprepared which is 100% ok as well.

You can pretty much take any topic of interest and prove that the average person is ignorant of it at some level.

He says it's not an debate, but long form discussion. He figures that he won't actually change your mind, but it'll make you more informed.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

4 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

He says it's not an debate, but long form discussion. He figures that he won't actually change your mind, but it'll make you more informed.

I can see that somewhat, but he doesn't allow 2 unprepared people to have a discussion. He prepares with facts, stats, and has probably thought of many rebuttals before the cameras roll. Then he wants to debate or discuss the topic with people that are walking to class. If he really wants a good discussion with randos, then why doesn't he invite a similarly prepared person to act on the other side of the argument as well.

It's entertaining, and makes you think.  But it's completely one-sided.

[workswithseed 2036]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I can see that somewhat, but he doesn't allow 2 unprepared people to have a discussion. He prepares with facts, stats, and has probably thought of many rebuttals before the cameras roll. Then he wants to debate or discuss the topic with people that are walking to class. If he really wants a good discussion with randos, then why doesn't he invite a similarly prepared person to act on the other side of the argument as well.

It's entertaining, and makes you think.  But it's completely one-sided.

He tried that once, and UT made it hard to do it.

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by workswithseed

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

Pretty sure this election is already on everybody’s radar and not worth throwing our money on, but it’s worth mentioning again. If you have friends in the area that are registered but typically only vote in presidential elections, get them to turn out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1116516

Although the winner of the special election will have to run again in November, before the Legislature even holds its next session, the contest has become "a tremendously important race for the future of Texas Democrats," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. Democrats believe demographics have already shifted in their favor, he said, but to win, they'll need to get those groups to vote.

Gov. Greg Abbott recently wrote an email urging supporters to back Gates, saying his opponent was backed by "radical liberals like Beto O'Rourke," who, Abbott said, "want to confiscate your guns, tax churches, and allow abortion up until birth."

And in an email to local Republicans last fall, a Fort Bend County party official described the special election as "our Alamo," seeming to acknowledge the changing political winds in the community west of Houston. Once a Republican bastion — the home district of former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay — Fort Bend is regarded as one of the fastest-growing and most rapidly diversifying counties in the country.

"Democrats are licking their chops, ready for wins," Rottinghaus said. "I think Texas Democrats are tired of the good fight. I think they want to be the ones standing in the ring alone at the end."

 

 

 

 

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Julian Castro is actually coming back to Texas this weekend to door knock for Eliz.

Beto and his new group knocked 20K doors last weekend.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

Seeing lots of tweets asking why there aren't hundreds of thousands of protestors outside the Senate right now. Well, Americans are too poor to protest. They can't afford to take off work. They can't afford to travel to DC to make their voice heard. 

It occurred to me something like a PAC might help remedy this. 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

You want a PAC to pay people to protest?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

in addition to SOROSPAC, you mean?

[NameAlreadyInUse 5106]

So I'm still in, are we still waiting to figure out which candidates make it through the primary?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

so maybe I shouldn't have smoked that bowl at lunch. either way, it seemed like a good idea at the time. lulz

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

46 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

So I'm still in, are we still waiting to figure out which candidates make it through the primary?

That’s my plan. Let’s see who makes it through, hear some pitches for candidates, vote on the best, then support the heck out of them. In the mean time start thinking about Texas house districts that are ready to go blue.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

With everything going on and democrats feeling more motivated than I have ever seen before, I thought it would be a good time to bump this. Act blue has been setting fundraising records for democrats, and I want to make sure that candidates for the Texas House aren't left out. This is the best chance democrats have had to flip the house in decades, and in a redistricting year no less. I was hoping to get this started sooner but there are still primary run offs happening July 14th and I want to give everybody a fair chance. 

On July 15th I will start a new thread with a poll of nominated candidates from this thread. We select the candidate that we want to support as a group. We hit them with surly elite cash via act blue (preferred) or a similar site. I will update that thread with volunteer opportunities or chances to meet the candidate. We celebrate their victory and the ousting of the dotard. 

Please nominate democratic candidates below for the July 15th poll that are running for a Texas House seat in a district that is going to go either way. Closer to Austin for volunteering opportunities is preferred but not required. Act blue is preferred but not required. If the candidate still has a run-off to get through, please indicate that. 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

ActBlue already has a Flip the Texas State House fund that is looking to protect incumbents that barely won and those who are challenging in close districts. Those who are still in runoffs will have money split equally. You can also choose to allocate how you like if you dont want to equally. This decides if Texas Dems will have a seat at the redistricting table.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewavetx2020

I was going to make an all encompassing thread for 15-20 State House candidates and 8-9US House candidates in Texas for competitive races with links to their site and ActBlue after the runoff. Not much going on in Texas State Senate except SD-19 and maybe Jane Nelson's district could be competitive after never having to run against a Democrat this decade.

Edited June 4, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Guest Lobo]

What about Texas State Senate?  Can we advocate for that?  

[thrillhammer 683]

On ‎11‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 5:38 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Yes she is

wendy davis was the first candidate that jumped out at me as a potential recipient of the alleged pac.  hegar is my second choice.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

3 hours ago, Lobo said:

What about Texas State Senate?  Can we advocate for that?  

You can nominate for that as well.  Just not much of a chance of flipping it. 

[Guest Lobo]

Well what about Representative Rodriguez for State Senate?  

[StassneyHorn 6540]

The Democrat who gets out of the primary for Kirk Watson's seat is a lock to win, whether its Eckhardt or Rodriguez.

State Senate doesn't have a real chance of flipping this election. If you do want to go state senate route, priority should be given to SD-19, to bring the balance back to 18R-13D and break the R supermajority. Jane Nelson in SD-12 hasn't had to face a real challenger this decade, her district is northern suburbs of DFW and west Fort Worth and I think is the only potential suprise, if there would be one. All state senate spots will be up for election in 2022 after redistricting.

 

Wendy Davis is a great pick IMO. Very flippable district on face value, and Chip Roy was Ted Cruz's old chief of staff so he is very dickish. Chip voted against the coronavirus relief bill, compared stay at home orders to Nazi Germany, and held up aid from the natural disaster relief bill for communities affected by Harvey

[Biff Tannen 45495]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Wendy Davis is a great pick IMO. Very flippable district on face value, and Chip Roy was Ted Cruz's old chief of staff so he is very dickish. Chip voted against the coronavirus relief bill, compared stay at home orders to Nazi Germany, and held up aid from the natural disaster relief bill for communities affected by Harvey

Agree.  Chip Roy is a fucking douchebag.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

I'll take that as a nomination for Wendy. I personally think that is a solid choice. Close to Austin, has act blue, competitive district, and running against a douche. No rush in getting others in as we have a while but keep them coming. 

[SydneyCarton 47884]

Great thread thanks. 

[Guest Lobo]

Chip Roy is what Ambien takes when Ambien is having trouble falling asleep.  

[Bama Chick 28596]

Y’all need to go after this asshole in Odessa -

[Gourmand 7774]

PSA 

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/mj-hegar-royce-west-debate-saturday-ahead-of-runoff-election/

[Biff Tannen 45495]

On 6/5/2020 at 4:46 PM, Bama Chick said:

Y’all need to go after this asshole in Odessa -

 

torbush

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

If we're still nominating I'd like to offer up Sri Preston Kulkarni who is running for Pete Olson's (retiring) seat TX-22 (Tom Delay held this seat for 20 years prior).  This district covers most of Fort Bend County and is one of the most diverse districts in the state:

41.78% white

13.34% black

19.05% Asian

25.19% Hispanic

0.64% Native American

 

Sri is running against the winner of a runoff between First Amendment champion Sheriff Troy Nehls and carpetbagger Kathleen Wall.  Troy is most famous for threatening the owner of the 'Fuck Trump' truck with 'disorderly conduct' charge.  Wall is your run of the mill district hopper who looked at TX-22 as a good opportunity to finally win an election (she had previously run in TX-2).

Sri is a UT graduate and a diplomat who resigned from the United States Foreign Service shortly after Trump made his 'fine people on both sides' comments. 

He ran against Olson in 2018 and gave Olson the closest race of his career winning %46.5 of the vote.

 

Information on 'the issues':

https://sri2020.com/issues/

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

25 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

If we're still nominating I'd like to offer up Sri Preston Kulkarni who is running for Pete Olson's (retiring) seat TX-22 (Tom Delay held this seat for 20 years prior).  This district covers most of Fort Bend County and is one of the most diverse districts in the state:

41.78% white

13.34% black

19.05% Asian

25.19% Hispanic

0.64% Native American

 

Sri is running against the winner of a runoff between First Amendment champion Sheriff Troy Nehls and carpetbagger Kathleen Wall.  Troy is most famous for threatening the owner of the 'Fuck Trump' truck with 'disorderly conduct' charge.  Wall is your run of the mill district hopper who looked at TX-22 as a good opportunity to finally win an election (she had previously run in TX-2).

Sri is a UT graduate and a diplomat who resigned from the United States Foreign Service shortly after Trump made his 'fine people on both sides' comments. 

He ran against Olson in 2018 and gave Olson the closest race of his career winning %46.5 of the vote.

 

Information on 'the issues':

https://sri2020.com/issues/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good nomination. He’s on the list.

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Wendy Davis brought in 1.4 M for Q2. Has 2.8 M cash on hand.

Chip Roy has two first names, was Chief of Staff for Ted Cruz, ghost wrote a book for Rick Perry,  and shouldn’t be in Congress.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5106]

Ok the primaries are over.  Time to revisit this, I have some money burning a hole in my pocket.

[Biff Tannen 45495]

6 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Ok the primaries are over.  Time to revisit this, I have some money burning a hole in my pocket.

Yep.  Who's our horse?

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

Yep. Let's talk..

In Play Tx House Seats (A little goes a long way here, and flipping the Tx House should be priority 1 for Texans with redistricting around the corner)

In Play Congressional Seats

In play senate seats nationally

 

 

 

[SydneyCarton 47884]

Ive probably got some money I can contribute. Someone draw up a list and a plan.  

[StassneyHorn 6540]

I made a State House thread if people want to piggyback on it. From my viewpoint, I think the right play here is State House. Having a seat at the redistricting table ensures their is a Dem majority pushing back in the state House, and the 2-3 newly created US House seats from the census results in Texas are competitive. The same amount of money that would be spent across state house seats is more effective than the massive sums a Senator or US House candidate(s) will be getting. Senators need 10 million at the minimum, US House seats at least 5 million. Why not give to state House candidates that need far less to run a campaign. 

 

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

Much as I'd love to see Surly put their money toward Sri defeating that idiot sheriff Nehls in TX-22, the money would probably be better spent on Texas State House elections.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5106]

I think at the very least we should have a prioritized list of races where we could contribute.  I want to have an idea where it makes the most sense for me to put money across multiple candidates, and I expect most of them to be state races, I might also give money to some fed races as well, but don't want to give money were either a) its a lost cause, of b) it's not as needed as it would be in other races.

So I guess we need a comprehensive list of all the races for State House and maybe State Senate as well at least, and we can start to figure out which of those races are the ones that it makes the most sense to fund.

 

[NameAlreadyInUse 5106]

55 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I made a State House thread if people want to piggyback on it. From my viewpoint, I think the right play here is State House. Having a seat at the redistricting table ensures their is a Dem majority pushing back in the state House, and the 2-3 newly created US House seats from the census results in Texas are competitive. The same amount of money that would be spent across state house seats is more effective than the massive sums a Senator or US House candidate(s) will be getting. Senators need 10 million at the minimum, US House seats at least 5 million. Why not give to state House candidates that need far less to run a campaign. 

 

Also thanks for this link.  I had missed this thread.

[gmr548 16513]

Y’all need to go after this asshole in Odessa -

I'm not sure which DT poster you just doxxed because it could be several of them, but I'm sure it's one of them.

[gmr548 16513]

Much as I'd love to see Surly put their money toward Sri defeating that idiot sheriff Nehls in TX-22, the money would probably be better spent on Texas State House elections.

This. Texas House should be priority one. Democratic US House majority isn't going anywhere. Presidential doesn't matter here - if it's competitive it will get a ton of national money and the election is honestly over anyway, and if it trends back R it's just throwing money away.

Texas House would have huge, tangible local impact and money goes a lot further.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5106]

Ok, did some pre-work on this.  Seems like the 17 races that finished within 10% are a good place to start, and also a look at those with retiring incumbents.  

First is the <10% races:

 

Office	Democratic	Republican	Dem Lost by <10%	Retiring Incumbent
District 26	L. Sarah DeMerchant	Jacey Jetton	4.97% (3,255 Votes)	*
District 28	Elizabeth Markowitz	Gary Gates (i)	8.41% (6,879 Votes)
District 54	Likeithia Williams	Brad Buckley (i)	7.69% (3702 Votes)
District 64	Angela Brewer	Lynn Stucky (i)	8.37% (5730 Votes)
District 66	Sharon Hirsch	Matt Shaheen (i)	.55% (378 Votes)
District 67	Primary runoff results pending	Jeff Leach (i)	2.27% (1650 Votes)
District 92	Jeff Whitfield	Jeff Cason	2.43% (1446 Votes)	*
District 93	Lydia Bean	Matt Krause (i)	7.79% (4450 Votes)
District 94	Alisa Simmons	Tony Tinderholt (i)	8.63% (5,324 Votes)
District 96	Joe Drago	David Cook	3.68% (2,361 Votes)	*
District 97	Elizabeth Beck	Craig Goldman (i)	8.4% (5534 Votes)
District 108	Joanna Cattanach	Morgan Meyer (i)	.57% (220 Votes)
District 112	Brandy Chambers	Angie Chen Button (i)	2.15% (1,140 Votes)
District 121	Celina Montoya	Steve Allison (i)	8.54% (6,199 Votes)
District 126	Natali Hurtado	E. Sam Harless (i)	9.69% (5,366 Votes)
District 134	Ann Johnson	Sarah Davis (i)	6.41% (5,678 Votes)
District 138	Akilah Bacy	Lacey Hull	.15% (47 Votes)	*

 

Next is retiring incumbent in contested races.  I haven't looked at all of these yet, some of them may not matter, but non-incumbents are easier to beat as a rule so want to include them for now.

Office	Democratic	Republican	Dem Lost by <10%	Retiring Incumbent
District 25	Patrick Henry	Cody Vasut		*
District 26	L. Sarah DeMerchant	Jacey Jetton	4.97% (3,255 Votes)	*
District 74	Eddie Morales Jr.	Ruben Falcon		*
District 92	Jeff Whitfield	Jeff Cason	2.43 (1446 Votes)	*
District 96	Joe Drago	David Cook	3.68% (2,361 Votes)	*
District 119	Elizabeth Campos	George Garza		*
District 138	Akilah Bacy	Lacey Hull	.15% (47 Votes)	*

 

This gives us a list of 20 races where the odds are better this year than they were in the 2018 cycle and 4 where both those conditions are true, so that seems like a good place to focus. Also Steve Allison in 121 was also one of the guys targeted by the current speaker to get oust him, so there may be some Republican help on that one.

Did a quick perusal of the state senate races and none of the races up this time around was competitive.  Either the Republican or the Democrat won big.  Only 4 of the races were even contested.  I'll do some more research but that seems like wasted time.

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

It might also be a good idea to look at seats that flipped D last time with a close margin of victory. I'd hate to get so focused on these that we give a few back elsewhere. 

[NameAlreadyInUse 5106]

9 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

It might also be a good idea to look at seats that flipped D last time with a close margin of victory. I'd hate to get so focused on these that we give a few back elsewhere. 

Good point.  I don't have the vote totals without more research on these but here is an update with percentages:

 

Office	Democratic	Republican	Dem Lost by <10%	Retiring Incumbent
District 26	L. Sarah DeMerchant	Jacey Jetton	4.97% (3,255 Votes)	*
District 28	Elizabeth Markowitz	Gary Gates (i)	8.41% (6,879 Votes)
District 45	Erin Zwiener (i)	Carrie Isaac	Dems won by 3.2%
District 47	Vikki Goodwin (i)	Justin Berry	Dems won by 4.8%
District 52	James Talarico (i)	Lucio Valdez	Dems won by 3.5%
District 54	Likeithia Williams	Brad Buckley (i)	7.69% (3702 Votes)
District 64	Angela Brewer	Lynn Stucky (i)	8.37% (5730 Votes)
District 65	Michelle Beckley (i)	Kronda Thimesch	Dems won by 2.3%
District 66	Sharon Hirsch	Matt Shaheen (i)	.55% (378 Votes)
District 67	Primary runoff results pending	Jeff Leach (i)	2.27% (1650 Votes)
District 92	Jeff Whitfield	Jeff Cason	2.43% (1446 Votes)	*
District 93	Lydia Bean	Matt Krause (i)	7.79% (4450 Votes)
District 94	Alisa Simmons	Tony Tinderholt (i)	8.63% (5,324 Votes)
District 96	Joe Drago	David Cook	3.68% (2,361 Votes)	*
District 97	Elizabeth Beck	Craig Goldman (i)	8.4% (5534 Votes)
District 102	Ana-Maria Ramos (i)	Linda Koop	Dems won by 5.8%
District 105	Terry Meza (i)	Gerson Hernandez	Dems won by 9.5%
District 108	Joanna Cattanach	Morgan Meyer (i)	.57% (220 Votes)
District 112	Brandy Chambers	Angie Chen Button (i)	2.15% (1,140 Votes)
District 113	Rhetta Andrews Bowers (i)	Will Douglas	Dems won by 7%
District 121	Celina Montoya	Steve Allison (i)	8.54% (6,199 Votes)
District 126	Natali Hurtado	E. Sam Harless (i)	9.69% (5,366 Votes)
District 132	Gina Calanni (i)	Mike Schofield	Dems won by .2%
District 134	Ann Johnson	Sarah Davis (i)	6.41% (5,678 Votes)
District 135	Jon Rosenthal (i)	Justin Ray	Dems won by 3.2%
District 136	John Bucy III (i)	Mike Guevara	Dems won by 9.6%
District 138	Akilah Bacy	Lacey Hull	.15% (47 Votes)	*

[StassneyHorn 6540]

SD-19 with Pete Flores should/will be a guaranteed pickup for Dems. Jane Nelson has never had a close race in SD 12, cause she never had to face any Democratic candidate of concern. She’s in the west Fort Worth area and goes through Southern Denton County and could be easily be a surprise flip as many of the state house races that are close are in the area.Other than that, no real action on the state senate. I’ll leave the links below, I’ll be updating my thread quite a bit so there could be a lot of crossover information contained In there

https://flipthetxhouse.com/static-map

https://mobile.twitter.com/FliptheTXhouse
 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

First, thank you for the leg work that y’all have already done on this. Any thoughts on the best way to narrow this down and select a candidate or two? Democrats are so much more competitive across the state that this became a harder task than I expected. My personal preference would be to have a specific candidate that we get behind while pushing the flip the house fund as well.

[Biff Tannen 45495]

47 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

First, thank you for the leg work that y’all have already done on this. Any thoughts on the best way to narrow this down and select a candidate or two? Democrats are so much more competitive across the state that this became a harder task than I expected. My personal preference would be to have a specific candidate that we get behind while pushing the flip the house fund as well.

I still say Wendy Davis, but that's because I'm in Austin and Chip Roy is such a fucking scumbag.

[Horn Dog 9672]

Never donated to a political race in my life.  My local races are not close and will not be swayed.  Just gave $250 directly to Biden and plan to give about $1000 more this cycle.  This shit changes so fast and it’s difficult to wade through all the different threads to figure out where dems can realistically flip a race with some resources.  What are some national races where some money can actually currently make a difference?

[SydneyCarton 47884]

15 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Never donated to a political race in my life.  My local races are not close and will not be swayed.  Just gave $250 directly to Biden and plan to give about $1000 more this cycle.  This shit changes so fast and it’s difficult to wade through all the different threads to figure out where dems can realistically flip a race with some resources.  What are some national races where some money can actually currently make a difference?

South Carolina Senate race is looking like a fucking big one now. Plenty of other experts who know more than me will be along to answer shortly, I'm sure. Maine seems like it's sewn up already. 

[Gap03 3286]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

South Carolina Senate race is looking like a fucking big one now. Plenty of other experts who know more than me will be along to answer shortly, I'm sure. Maine seems like it's sewn up already. 

I agree with Sydney.  Regaining control of the Senate will be essential so that we can start to unfuck the federal judiciary, and there are a few races where money is likely to help - namely:

• SC (where Harrison seems to be surging),
• NC (where Cunningham is hoping to hold onto his lead and where we know the Rs will be up to some shenanigans), and
• ME (because we know that Mitch will likely continue to throw a lot of cash to protect his favorite pet, even though Gideon seems to have a significant lead). 

IA still seems to be a bit of tossup, but I'm not sure money helps there as much, and MT is still fairly close, but Bullock is already well known so I'm not sure that advertising (while cheap) is going to help him climb out of the whole he seems to be in.