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2020 NFL DRAFT

Napoleon

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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On 4/18/2020 at 7:41 AM, LTtxfan said:

83. Devin Duvernay, WR, Texas, 5-10½, 200 (4.39)

Duvernay is built like a running back, but has elite speed. He played in 52 games and was the Big 12's Offensive Player of the Year twice. He doesn't always look smooth during his routes but finished with 106 catches in 2019.

Sounds like a baller.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49909

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https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/29070773/sportsbooks-see-big-betting-interest-nfl-draft

Betting on NFL Draft picking up...

Quote

Sportsbooks see big betting interest in NFL draft

David Purdum  ESPN Staff Writer

With games on hold, the NFL draft is taking center stage at sportsbooks around the nation, and betting interest is booming ahead of Thursday's first round.  Increased offerings from sportsbooks and the growth of the U.S. betting market, on top of limited live sports due to the coronavirus pandemic, are fueling what will be the most heavily bet NFL draft ever.

"We'll do probably more than 10 [times] what we did last year [on the draft]," John Sheeran, director of trading for FanDuel, told ESPN.  Bookmakers are offering hundreds of proposition bets on everything from the first pick to the last. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and Ohio State defensive end Chase Young are big favorites to go first and second, respectively. FanDuel has Burrow's odds of being the No. 1 overall pick at -100,000, meaning you'd need to risk $100,000 to win $100 on the Heisman Trophy winner going first. No bets of that size have been reported.

The over/under on the number of quarterbacks taken in the first round is sitting at 4.5, with the vigorish heavily tilted to the under. Wide receiver/tight end is the favorite to be the position of Mr. Irrelevant, the player selected with the final pick. In the unregulated offshore sportsbook world, you'll even find odds on whether NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will wear a suit to open the virtual draft.

DraftKings said its New Jersey sportsbook surpassed last year's betting handle on the draft with a week to go. Sportsbook PointsBet compared the amount wagered on the draft to how much is bet on a Monday Night Football game. Nationwide, tens of millions of dollars are wagered on a typical high-profile NFL game, with five- and six-figure bets common.

The bets on the draft aren't nearly as large, but there are lots of them, and they often come in waves, triggered by the latest breaking report or mock draft. It's then on the oddsmakers to decide what's true and what's not.   "It's really, really tricky to decipher what is actually information that you can use to make your line more accurate," Sheeran said. "It's almost impossible to keep on top of all of it. In the instance where we miss key information leaking out, you will invariably find a stream, a waterfall effect of bets that are coming through at that moment of time.  "It won't be difficult for bettors to find opportunities to get a good bet on that will end up having a lot of positive value," Sheeran added.

U.S. sportsbooks are still relatively new to taking bets on the draft. Nevada bookmakers weren't allowed to take action on the draft until 2017, and they haven't exactly enjoyed the results.  "Generally speaking, you don't take one square dollar [on draft props]," Jeff Davis, director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said. "And you get absolutely throttled."

The draft will be conducted remotely beginning Thursday and broadcast on ESPN, ABC and NFL Network. The second and third rounds will take place Friday, with the remaining rounds Saturday.


 

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Knoxtnhorn

Knoxtnhorn 6262

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5 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


This is going to be a very memorable draft. Can’t wait, ratings are going to be through the roof

Yep.  I've watched, maybe, 30 minutes total of the NFL draft since 2006 (VY draft).  My son and I are already treating Thursday like the Super Bowl.

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CurlyDumps

CurlyDumps 4618

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15 hours ago, DoneWithit said:

Heard it was smooth sailing after a couple of hiccups but this Tweet by the same reporter is hilarious. 

 

Did this guy really “wish to remain anonymous?” Do you really have to PROTECT YOUR SOURCE here? Just say the fucking name of the coach or don’t tweet your cute little anecdote.

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youdunnf'dup

youdunnf'dup 2147

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2 hours ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Yep.  I've watched, maybe, 30 minutes total of the NFL draft since 2006 (VY draft).  My son and I are already treating Thursday like the Super Bowl.

Normally I follow the draft and all the predraft lead up (ie sr bowl, combine, pro days, 30 visits, etc) pretty closely. Not this year. This year it all kind of crept up on me, and it’s a nice little surprise. It might be the closest thing we get to sports for a while. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49909

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Fyi... Don't Know Anything About website below, but their contest rules might be good if you want to set up your own separate NFL DRAFT competition with some buddies (in place of March Madness), maybe each person chips in $25 to participate...

------------------------------------------------------------

NFL DRAFT CONTEST 1 : FREE $5000 NFL Draft Contest

Entry Fee: FREE!

Entry Limit: One entry per person

Prize Pool: $5000

How to Play: Everyone (legal age, of course) is invited to take advantage of this FREE entry contest. But given that you’ve got one shot (for the FREE entry contest) you’ll want to make your first round draft picks carefully. All you need to do is pick a draft prospect for each of the 32 first-round draft slots. You’re competing against other entrants to see who makes the most accurate picks! Your correct and near-correct picks are provided with a score, with the breakdown as follows:

  • For each correct pick you make, you score 10 points
  • For each pick that misses by one slot, you score 5 points
  • For each pick that misses by 2 slots, you score 2 points

*Note: Your selected player for any slot must be drafted in the first 32 picks to earn a score for that slot.

Those who score in the top 12 win cash prizes from the $5000 prize pool. Here is the prize money breakdown:

1st place: $2500

2nd place: $1000

3rd place: $500

4th to 7th place: $125

8th to 12th place: $100 

 

http://topbet.eu/news/predict-the-pick-2020-nfl-draft-contest-the-ultimate-pick-em-pool.html

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CastHorn

CastHorn 893

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I’m curious how the pandemic is going to alter the way teams pick tomorrow night. They haven’t had a whole lot of hands on time with these prospects. A guy like Tua might fall because of all the uncertainty surrounding him. I’d take a guy like Eason in early 2nd over Herbert in the top 10.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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9 minutes ago, CastHorn said:

I’m curious how the pandemic is going to alter the way teams pick tomorrow night. They haven’t had a whole lot of hands on time with these prospects. A guy like Tua might fall because of all the uncertainty surrounding him. I’d take a guy like Eason in early 2nd over Herbert in the top 10.

Tua was able to show enough before the pandemic to remove any slide. He’s done enough to lock up a top 5 pick. But other injury risks might slide. Laviska Shenault WR from Colorado comes to mind. DeSean Jackson talent but injured at combine. 

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6586

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1 hour ago, CastHorn said:

I’m curious how the pandemic is going to alter the way teams pick tomorrow night. They haven’t had a whole lot of hands on time with these prospects. A guy like Tua might fall because of all the uncertainty surrounding him. I’d take a guy like Eason in early 2nd over Herbert in the top 10.

I also wonder what the thought process is based on "will they have a NFL season this year" or "will it be a shortened season".  Some teams may trade a bunch of picks for 2021 or do the opposite as they may not want a ton of 2021 picks (if there is no college football this year) because they will have trouble scouting players who didn't play for a year.  

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Vic Mackey

Vic Mackey 47847

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On 4/21/2020 at 2:55 AM, MNLonghornFUKM said:


This is going to be a very memorable draft. Can’t wait, ratings are going to be through the roof

Opposite for me. I almost give no fucks. Are we even having a sports season this year? Who knows. Goodell will be doing this from his basement. Hard to really get up for the hype with the way it is right now. Goes for any sport.

I'll keep up with who Dallas gets but that is about it. 

 

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pacman

pacman 7490

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On 4/21/2020 at 2:55 AM, MNLonghornFUKM said:


This is going to be a very memorable draft. Can’t wait, ratings are going to be through the roof

I can only imagine. The first and only actual live sports event in awhile. People are so desperate that ratings absolutely wil be through the roof.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49909

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2 hours ago, CastHorn said:

I’m curious how the pandemic is going to alter the way teams pick tomorrow night. They haven’t had a whole lot of hands on time with these prospects. A guy like Tua might fall because of all the uncertainty surrounding him. I’d take a guy like Eason in early 2nd over Herbert in the top 10.

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JFKFC

JFKFC 4965

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3 hours ago, CastHorn said:

I’m curious how the pandemic is going to alter the way teams pick tomorrow night. They haven’t had a whole lot of hands on time with these prospects. A guy like Tua might fall because of all the uncertainty surrounding him. I’d take a guy like Eason in early 2nd over Herbert in the top 10.

Since there won't be football this year, that gives Tua an exrta year to heal up.

Look, no matter what happens, the Dolphins will screw this up. 

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pacman

pacman 7490

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, CastHorn said:

I’m curious how the pandemic is going to alter the way teams pick tomorrow night. They haven’t had a whole lot of hands on time with these prospects. A guy like Tua might fall because of all the uncertainty surrounding him. I’d take a guy like Eason in early 2nd over Herbert in the top 10.

few nfl teams show competence above throwing a dart at a dart board while blindfolded...

 

i imagine they will continue to blindly pick and pray it works out

 

i am interested in  contract negotiations given the season is in question...i see some prospects leaving money on the table in hopes of cashing in now

they waited a long time for a payday

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49909

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https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/23/nfl-mock-draft-18-final-mock-draft

 

Quote

The draft is finally here. Our mock draft expert Kevin Hanson gives his final projection of how the first round should play out on Thursday night. Check out where Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and the other top prospects land.

2020 NFL Mock Draft 18.0: One Final Mock on the Eve of the Draft

KEVIN HANSON -- 6 HOURS AGO

The unpredictable nature of the NFL draft is what makes it so exciting, yet that doesn’t stop us from trying to predict it.

As one NFL general manager recently told NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, “The media is wronger about mock drafts this year than you guys have ever been.” If my final mock this year is only “as wrong as usual,” does that mean I have exceeded expectations?

Given all of the moving parts of a virtual draft, front offices will face some potential communication challenges as teams are spread out. Earlier this month, long-time draft guru Gil Brandt speculated about the potential of “probably fewer” trades taking place. That said, I’ve projected a couple trade scenarios that I believe make sense.

With less than 24 hours to go, here is my final projection for the 2020 NFL draft:

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

The odds that Cincinnati passes on Burrow are slim-to-none (or 1,000/1, to be exact). In a draft full of intrigue, Burrow has been the wire-to-wire pick throughout the pre-draft process for good reason. Always composed under pressure, Burrow throws with pinpoint accuracy and uses his mobility to extend or make plays. Playing his best in the biggest moments of LSU’s championship-winning season, Burrow brings leadership, intangibles and toughness to his home-state franchise.

2. Washington: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State

Building upon his end-of-season momentum as a true sophomore (when he had six sacks over the final four games), Young broke Ohio State’s single-season sack record with 16.5 in 2019. While the elite-level production matches his high-end traits, Young’s impact goes beyond the box score as the disruptive edge defender will create plenty of one-on-one opportunities for Montez Sweat and his Washington teammates as opposing offensive coordinators game plan for Young.

3. Detroit Lions: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State

This is where the draft gets more interesting. Will Okudah become the first defensive back selected in the top three during Okudah’s lifetime? Will the Lions be able to entice a team to move up a few spots, which would then allow them to acquire more draft capital and still get their guy? Absent a trade back, the Lions will consider Derrick Brown and Isaiah Simmons here as well, but Okudah is a complete corner with an ideal blend of size, length, athleticism and competitiveness.

4. New York Giants: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

This choice likely comes down to Simmons or Dave Gettleman’s preferred “hog molly.” Last year’s starting right tackle Mike Remmers is now in Kansas City. While the Giants signed Cameron Fleming in free agency, his deal is for one year and he’d be better utilized as a swing tackle than as an every-week starter. Meanwhile, left tackle Nate Solder has not lived to the expectations of his massive contract. A two-year starter at right tackle for the Tide, Wills is dominant as a run blocker with outstanding movement skills that should allow him to develop into a high-end starter at either tackle spot.

5. Miami Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Earlier this offseason, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross voiced concerns about Tua Tagovailoa’s health. Despite positive reports leading up to Tua’s virtual pro day, the Dolphins were unable to bring him in for a visit, which could prevent the franchise from risking a top-five pick on him. Herbert has across-the-board plus traits—size, arm strength, mobility and intelligence—and the Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy called concerns about Herbert’s quiet leadership style a “false narrative.”

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

Coach Anthony Lynn recently said that Tyrod Taylor is “in the driver’s seat” to start, which makes sense—especially given that Easton Stick is the only other quarterback on the roster. In this draft scenario, Tagovailoa is afforded a redshirt season and can take over in 2021 when Taylor becomes a free agent. When healthy, Tua throws with a quick release, elite accuracy and anticipation, and has the intangibles and leadership to develop into a franchise quarterback.

Sean Rayford/AP/Shutterstock

7. Carolina Panthers: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

The converted safety won the Butkus Award, given to the nation's top collegiate linebacker, but the do-it-all defender has lined up nearly everywhere. As Dabo Swinney has said, it’s “like getting three first-rounders” with Simmons, due to his versatility. With rare athleticism (4.39 in the 40 at 238 pounds) and playmaking ability, Simmons ended 2019 with 104 tackles, eight sacks, three interceptions and two forced fumbles.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Derrick Brown, IDL, Auburn

The Cardinals enter Thursday night already a draft winner, after trading their second-round pick for DeAndre Hopkins. As much as Kyler Murray may lobby for his former teammate (CeeDee Lamb), Steve Keim uses this pick to reinforce the team in the trenches. The Cardinals ranked last in the NFL in total defense in 2019 and Brown is the top-ranked player left on my board. Due to his size, strength and consistent motor, Brown is a dominant run-stuffer with the versatility to play multiple spots along the line.

* Projected trade: The Falcons send the 16th and 47th picks to the Jaguars in exchange for the ninth pick.

9. Atlanta Falcons: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

With Desmond Trufant now in Detroit, Atlanta’s top three returning corners—Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield—graded out as PFF’s 56th, 78th and 107th cornerbacks, respectively. If Thomas Dimitroff doesn't trade up with former lieutenant Dave Caldwell, the Falcons risk Henderson being selected by the Raiders or 49ers at No. 12 or 13, respectively, if not by the Jags themselves in this spot. Given his blend of size, length, speed and agility, Henderson has elite coverage skills and helps address what is arguably the Falcons’ biggest need.

10. Cleveland Browns: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

The Browns signed right tackle Jack Conklin to a three-year deal in free agency, but there is still a huge need at left tackle. The first true freshman to start at tackle during the Kirk Ferentz era at Iowa, Wirfs has freakish athleticism for someone his size and he has the versatility to play either tackle spot or kick inside, if necessary.

11. New York Jets: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

The Jets ranked near the bottom of Football Outsiders offensive line rankings in both run blocking (31st) and pass blocking (30th) in 2019. While the Jets have made several additions to the offensive line via free agency, I don’t think Joe Douglas is done yet. A mountain of a man (6'7" and 364 pounds) with vines for arms (35 5/8"), the 20-year-old Becton has work to do on technique, but he has rare movement skills for his size and as much potential as any offensive lineman in the draft.

12. Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

Darren Waller had a breakout season (90/1,145/3) in 2019, but the trade for Antonio Brown turned out to be a failed experiment. Three wide receivers—Jerry Jeudy (No. 8), Lamb (No. 9) and Henry Ruggs III (No. 12)—sit inside of the top 12 on my big board and Mike Mayock has his choice here. Scoring 26 touchdowns in 27 games over the past two seasons, Lamb has outstanding hands, body control and run-after-catch ability.

13. San Francisco 49ers (via IND): Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Deebo Samuel had a productive rookie season, including three 100-yard games in the second half, but Emmanuel Sanders departed in free agency. After posting a combine-fastest 40-yard dash (4.27), Ruggs would give NFC West defensive coordinators nightmares given his possibilities when paired with one of the league’s best and most creative play callers in Kyle Shanahan.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

Getting Thomas may require a trade up, something I projected in a mock earlier this month, but the player/team fit is ideal. By signing Tom Brady to a two-year deal, the Bucs have gone all-in and Thomas is the most pro-ready of the top four offensive tackles. With starting experience at both left and right tackle at Georgia, Thomas provides the Bucs with an immediate upgrade at right tackle and the long-term upside to slide over to the left side, if needed.

15. Denver Broncos: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

Both Drew Lock and Noah Fant showed promise in their rookie seasons and Courtland Sutton had a breakout sophomore campaign (1,112 yards). The Broncos could use an upgrade opposite Sutton, however, as no other returning wide receiver reached the 300-yard mark in 2019. Jeudy is my top-ranked receiver, but there is some concern about his knee, which could be a a tie-breaker amongst the other top receivers. The 2018 Biletnikoff Award recipient is an advanced route-runner and ended his collegiate career on a high note (6/204/1 vs. Michigan).

* Projected trade: The Falcons send the 16th and 47th pick to the Jaguars in exchange for the ninth pick.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Javon Kinlaw, IDL, South Carolina

There has been some turnover on the Jags’ defensive line as they have declined Marcell Dareus’s option and traded Calais Campbell this offseason. In addition, Yannick Ngakoue could be [hopes to be] moved as we approach the draft. Due to his blend of size, length, strength and quickness, Kinlaw has as much pass-rush upside as any interior defender in this year’s draft.

17. Dallas Cowboys: K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU

In his lone season with the Cowboys, Robert Quinn, now in Chicago, had a team-high 11.5 sacks in 2019. Signing Aldon Smith, who hasn’t played since 2015, highlights the pass-rushing need opposite Demarcus Lawrence. While Chaisson missed nearly all of 2018 with a torn ACL, the 20-year-old has elite burst off the edge and came on late—4.5 sacks in his final four games—to lead LSU in sacks, tackles for loss and QB hurries in 2019.

18. Miami Dolphins (via PIT): Austin Jackson, OT, USC

Most of Miami’s free-agent spending was focused on the defensive side of the ball. While Chris Grier has added Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras on the interior, the team still has one of the worst offensive lines in football and could use upgrades at both tackle spots. The 20-year-old Jackson may have benefited from returning to USC for another season, but his quick feet and athleticism could entice the Dolphins to take a chance on his long-term upside as his technique catches up to his athleticism.

19. Las Vegas Raiders (via CHI): Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

With the team’s two first-round picks, the Raiders have addressed their two biggest post-free agency needs (wide receiver and cornerback). Fulton is a patient and physical corner with decent size. While he may not have elite long speed, he checked the box with a 4.46 in the 40 at the combine and he's quick, fluid and sticky in coverage.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR): A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson

With both 2019 outside starting cornerbacks—Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye—no longer on the roster, the Jags will likely use one (or multiple) early picks on a cornerback. While he didn’t have a stellar performance against Ja’Marr Chase and LSU in the national championship game, Terrell is a long and athletic corner that would help address one of the team’s biggest needs.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

Philadelphia’s top three receivers (entering 2019)—Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Nelson Agholor—missed 24 games combined games last year. Agholor is now a Raider, Jeffery’s future in Philly is uncertain and second-rounder J.J. Arcega-Whiteside underwhelmed as a rookie. Jefferson is a good route-runner with outstanding ball skills, ran a faster-than-expected 40-yard dash (4.43) and is coming off a prolific season (111/1,540/18) for the national champions.

22. Minnesota Vikings (via BUF): Josh Jones, OT, Houston

Mike Zimmer has talked about the potential of moving Riley Reiff to guard and Brian O’Neill from right to left tackle. A four-year starter at Houston, Jones has the length, quick feet and movement skills coveted in a left tackle.

* Projected trade: The Ravens send the 28th and 92nd picks to the Patriots in exchange for the 23rd pick.

23. Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

If only one linebacker is off the board through the first 22 picks, the Ravens could be aggressive to target one here. After all, they have multiple picks in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. Over the past two offseasons, the Ravens have lost C.J. Mosley (2019), Josh Bynes (’20) and Patrick Onwuasor (’20) via free agency. A tackling machine for the Sooners, Murray has the non-stop motor, sideline-to-sideline range and leadership to become an impact defender in the middle of the Ravens defense.

24. New Orleans Saints: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

A.J. Klein signed a three-deal with the Bills in free agency but four of the team’s top remaining linebackers—Demario Davis, Kiko Alonso, Alex Anzalone and Craig Robertson—are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents next offseason. One of the youngest prospects in the draft (he turns 21 in August), Queen played his best football down the stretch of LSU’s title run. While he’s a bit undersized, Queen is a three-down linebacker with outstanding speed that excels in coverage.

25. Minnesota Vikings: Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah

With Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander no longer in Minnesota, the Vikings could prioritize corner over wide receiver, given the wide receiver talent that will be on the board in Round 2. A fluid athlete at 6' and 193 pounds, Johnson has started 29 games over three seasons and has seven career interceptions and 28 passes defended.

26. Miami Dolphins (via HOU): Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

The Dolphins have added several new starters—Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson and Byron Jones—on defense via free agency. They add another projected starter here with McKinney, a versatile defender with experience at both safety spots. The junior tied for the team lead in interceptions (three) last season at Alabama.

27. Seattle Seahawks: Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State

While Jadeveon Clowney remains a free agent and has lowered his contract expectations, John Schneider has said that the “door is not closed” on bringing him back. Even though they have brought back 32-year-old Bruce Irvin, the Seahawks could use more pass-rush help. Gross-Matos has ideal length, a non-stop motor and quick first step, and has recorded 34.5 tackles for loss and 17 sacks over the past two seasons combined.

* Projected trade: The Ravens send the 28th and 92nd picks to the Patriots in exchange for the 23rd pick.

28. New England Patriots: A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa

Still without a second-rounder, the Patriots could use one of their (now) four third-rounders (including my projected trade) to later move up into Round 2 and potentially target a tight end, such as Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet. For this pick, however, Epenesa could remind Bill Belichick of one of his former players (Trey Flowers). The former Hawkeye wins with a blend of power, length, technique and heavy hands, and has the versatility to rush from the inside as well. While he started 2019 slowly, Epenesa closed the season strong with eight sacks and four forced fumbles over his final five games.

29. Tennessee Titans: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia

No team runs its offense through their running back more than the Titans do with Derrick Henry. A two-year starter at right tackle at Georgia, Wilson is a massive (6' 7", 350 pounds) road grader who fills the void created by Jack Conklin’s free-agency departure.

30. Green Bay Packers: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State

In terms of team needs, this pick could certainly be a wide receiver—and that’s something that I’ve slotted to the Packers in several previous iterations of my mock. Given the depth at receiver, however, it might be more realistic to target one on Day 2 and use this pick to reinforce the trenches with the ultra-athletic left tackle from Boise State.

* Projected trade: The Colts send the 34th and 122nd picks to the 49ers in exchange for the 31st pick.

31. Indianapolis Colts: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

With no picks again until Round 5, the 49ers will actively look to trade back. The further Love slides to the end of Round 1, the more it would entice the Colts to move up for the chance to have a fifth-year option on him. Love has been described by one NFL head coach as a “poor man's (Patrick) Mahomes” due to his live arm, plus mobility and improvisational skills. The current environment makes it difficult for rookies to start, but the high-upside signal-caller would have an adjustment year in this scenario as he sits behind Philip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett, both of whom are free agents in 2021.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Cesar Ruiz, IOL, Michigan

While I think he could go as high as 17th to the Cowboys as a Travis Frederick replacement, Ruiz makes sense here as the Chiefs could use an upgrade at center and left guard. A three-year starter at both center (26 games) and guard (five games), Ruiz sits atop my interior offensive rankings and has allowed just 19 pressures on 895 pass-blocking snaps since 2018, per PFF.                                                                                 Kevin Hanson joins SI for the 2020 NFL draft season. His NFL mock drafts have graded as the most accurate over the past five years, per The Huddle Report. His 2015 NFL mock draft graded as the most accurate and his 2019 NFL mock draft was the second-most accurate out of 101 draft analysts.

 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49909

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https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/22/nfl-mailbag-overrated-underrated-prospects-rob-gronkowski-tampa 

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Mailbag: Overrated and Underrated Draft Prospects; Rob Gronkowski in Tampa

Some players who NFL scouts say the public is rating incorrectly, five thoughts on the Rob Gronkowski trade and more mailbag questions about the draft.

ALBERT BREER.    17 HOURS AGO

The idea of Rob Gronkowski as a Buccaneer is fun. And here’s hoping we get the rollicking, gameday-loving, defensive-back-decleting, monster of a few years ago, because that’d be good for football, and it’d be great to watch.

But to assume that would be to ignore a lot of things.

In this week’s mailbag, we’re going to get to questions on Jordan Love, Jamal Adams, Trent Williams and just what draft day will look like—plus I’ll give you a list of players who the public has overrated and underrated. We’ve gotta start, though, with the news of the day, and that’s the Gronk stunner of a Tuesday afternoon. And I’ll be the first to concede that I’m surprised he’s back.

The Gronk I saw after his last game, Super Bowl LIII, was totally, completely drained, and looked like football had taken everything he had. That, in fact, was one thing that he took great satisfaction from. That he made it to the finish line in a trying year that tested him physically and mentally strong enough to play the hero at the end of the biggest game. Add that to how he was enjoying his retirement, and a comeback always seemed unlikely.

So why’s he doing it? Obviously, his relationship with Tom Brady is a factor. Knowing that Bruce Arians has a great track record of taking care of aging vets would be another, as would the fact the environment in Tampa won’t be nearly as difficult day-to-day as the one he worked in for nine seasons in Foxboro. Along those lines, this is also pretty clear proof that Gronk was more done with the Patriots than he was done with football.

And that opens up the chance we see a totally revitalized Gronk, and guys I know who evaluated him during his last year didn’t close the door on that last night.

“His body was just beat to hell and he couldn’t run,” texted one AFC exec. “But who knows what 18 months off will do? He’s still only 30.”

“He wasn’t done, that’s for sure,” said another AFC exec. “I’m guessing a year off may have been good for his body too.”

With that in mind, here are five thoughts on the Gronk news, before we move on.

• As I understand it, the issues he had when he last played football wouldn’t necessarily come up in a physical now, and he passed one ahead of this trade. More so, the issue would be how his back holds up to contact. Part of why he retired was that he narrowly escaped a fourth back surgery. At the end, in fact, he’d have trouble getting his shoes and pants off after games. So the back problem is one the Bucs will have to monitor.

• Gronkowski had leverage here. He’s due $10 million in cash in 2020. The Patriots are less than $1 million under the salary cap. Holding the line with Gronkowski for better compensation coming back could have turned this situation ugly, and if Gronk chose to file paperwork to come out of retirement, the Patriots would’ve had to start cutting or restructuring other players. Or they would’ve had to cut him, which would’ve left them with no compensation.

• The other piece of leverage? Gronk was only going to Tampa to play with Brady. The way to build a trade market for a player is to pit suitors against each other. But if there’s only one suitor, and that suitor knows it, good luck. So even if a pick sway that in essence turns a seventh-round pick into a fourth-rounder seems like a paltry return for the greatest tight end ever to play, the Patriots really did fine just to get an asset out of thin air.

• The Bucs now have a chance to get something for O.J. Howard, a former top 10 pick who’s very affordable in 2020 (due less than $2 million in cash). I’d think Howard, for all his warts, would be attractive in a year where the draft’s tight-end talent is sparse. Especially if Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet, considered the one legit prospect at the position, is gone come Friday morning.

• So where does this leave the Patriots? They have six picks (23, 87, 98, 100, 125, 139) in the first four rounds of the draft. And they’re in as close to a rebuild situation as they’ve been since Bill Belichick’s first year.

And with that, we can get back to where we started. This is gonna be fun, seeing what Brady and Gronk bring to Tampa, and seeing what Belichick does next.

One thing’s for sure—we aren’t lacking for potential outcomes.

***

OVERRATED/UNDERRATED PROSPECTS

And now, we’re gonna jump into the overrated/underrated list. Basically, I texted a bunch of scouts on Tuesday, and left this open ended—give me some guys you think the public is too high or low on. We got some results back.

UNDERRATED

Saahdiq Charles, OT, LSU: Some see Charles, talent-wise, belonging with the top group in this year’s class. The problems are, mostly, off the field. He was suspended for six games in 2019, and had a history of failed drug tests in Baton Rouge. Those aren’t as big a deal as they used to be, but for a guy who needs development, those sorts of missteps aren’t the best sign. So Charles could be someone’s long-term left tackle a couple years from now. Or he could be out of the league.

Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State: There’s a wide range of outcomes here based on how some teams picking early decide to play their need at tackle. And some see a lot of room for growth with Cleveland, an athletic specimen who still needs some development and to add strength. He could go anywhere from the teens to the top of the second round.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU: I think there’s been a consensus that he’d be the third or fourth back off the board, and I’m not so sure that’ll wind up being the case. A couple people have said to me they’d be watching Joe Burrow or Justin Jefferson, and Edwards-Helaire would jump off the tape as a true 21st-century back with real ability in the passing game.

Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State: Gross-Matos cuts an impressive frame, had a very solid final year for the Nittany Lions and still has room to get stronger and more refined as a player. Some teams view him as the type of prospect who, because he’s a very solid kid and works, is bound to reach the considerable potential that’s there.

Lucas Niang, OT, TCU: You don’t hear his name much, and he does have health concerns, but he’s a big athlete with football smarts that teams are projecting as a starter down the line. He could be a fit in a Shanahan-style offense.

Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado: He was seen, at one point, as a first-round prospect. The big question on him was raw speed, and going into the draft process injured hurt him there—he couldn’t run a 40 to disprove that knock. But he’s big and strong, and at Colorado he did a little bit of everything, including moonlighting as a wildcat quarterback. Someone’s gonna have a lot of fun with him.

Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming: Once Isaiah Simmons, Kenneth Murray, Patrick Queen and Jordyn Brooks are gone, a lot of teams think the going will get tough for teams that need off-ball linebackers. But some believe Wilson’s lurking there as a very strong Day 2 option, with a ton of college production in the books, and solid athletic testing numbers from the combine.

OVERRATED

Zack Baun, LB Wisconsin: Baun was a force in his final year in Madison. The question really is where he’ll fit in the NFL, as a prospect who may be good in a lot of areas, but not great in one. The type of defense he’s drafted into figures to play a big part in where his story goes from here. And there are significant injury concerns.

A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa: Here’s another great college player who may wind up being ordinary in the pros. Questions about Epenesa’s explosiveness off the snap were there in the fall, and were only heightened with a mediocre showing at the combine. I wouldn’t be surprised if he slips from the first round.

Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU: The question with Fulton is one of upside. He came into the year as a first-round prospect and was tested a ton with star freshman Derek Stingley opposite him. And he played OK. He probably won’t be a bust. But he may never wind up being better than an average starter at the position.

Josh Jones, OT, Houston: His athleticism and Senior Bowl performance probably catapulted him into the first round, but lots of teams see his tape as iffy, and don’t consider him the level of tackle prospect that typically goes that high.

Terrell Lewis, DE/OLB, Alabama: This is purely medical. Some teams flat out won’t touch him because of his injury history. There’s first-round talent there but a boatload of risk, too.

Jordan Love, QB, Utah State: We’ll have more on Love in the mail, but a lot of teams I’ve talked to can’t get past what Love put on tape last year.

Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor: Mims blazed a 4.3 at the combine, and was productive and clutch as a Bear. But there’s a reason why scouts saw him as a third- or fourth-rounder coming into the process, and a lot of it centers on how raw he is as a player—something that showed up when he faced press coverage in college, and in his route-running. A lot of teams see him more as a developmental-type receiver.

And now, finally, let’s get to the mail …

***

MAIL TIME

From Rami Alkadri (@ramisvine): Is Jordan Love still going first round? I feel like he’s been dropping.

Rami, Love’s been a tough one to peg. Back at the end of the college season, I had one pretty successful exec say to me that the Utah State product was going to have a limited number of teams that would be head over heels for him—and those teams would make every effort to keep that affection under wraps, because he figured to be such a polarizing prospect. That made him sort of a less-accomplished version of what Patrick Mahomes was in 2017. And maybe it’s why it has been hard to ascertain who really likes him.

But there’s a pretty big difference in the two as they were coming out of college. While both were seen as difficult to evaluate because of the offenses they played in and free-wheeling style they employed, Mahomes’s production (41 TD, 10 INT in his final year) dwarfed Love’s (20 TD, 17 INT in 2019), and the former did a much better job carrying his team when it was overmatched than the latter did, something evidenced in games the two played against LSU (Love: 15-for-30, 130 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT; Mahomes: 28-for-56, 370 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs)

Still, the mystery in who can get past the quirks in the game tape, and in raw ability, can draw parallels between the two. So figuring where Love will go has been a little bit of a guessing game. The Chiefs, you’ll remember, guessed right three years ago—that the Saints were smitten—and jumped right in front of them at 10.

The one rumor that’s floated around out there, which I mentioned earlier in the week is that the Dolphins could take a tackle rather than a quarterback at No. 5, and circle back and grab Love later on. But Miami’s done a good job keeping everyone guessing. And if something like that doesn’t happen? It’s feasible Love’s draft weekend might wind up like that of another 2017 QB—DeShone Kizer, an assumed first-rounder at one point, who fell to the middle of the second round.

And if it seems like we’re all over the place here, it’s because the range for Love really does seem to be that wide.

From Louie (@Louie_Rock): Do you think Jamal Adams is still a member of the Jets come Friday morning?

Louie, yes, I do think he’ll still be a Jet. Situations like this—where there’s clearly some ill will between player and team—can sometimes prompt teams to make offers for stars, and maybe someone puts a blockbuster in front of Jets GM Joe Douglas. But I don’t think he has an intention to move his game-wrecking safety.

This will, however, bear watching going forward. Adams was incensed at the trade deadline last fall that his name was being bandied about on the rumor mill, as the Jets listened to offers on, really, anyone on the roster this side of Sam Darnold, (which made sense given there was a new GM and coach in place and a team that was going nowhere). And while Adams finished the season strong, I do know other teams had their radar up for this relationship coming undone like Jalen Ramsey’s did in Jacksonville last season.

Adams’ contract status, of course, is where the rubber meets the road. A handful of safeties (Kevin Byard, Tyrann Mathieu, Earl Thomas, Landon Collins, Eddie Jackson) are around $14 million per year, and if that’s where the Jets star wants to be, I think the team will get him there. But if he wants to blow up the market all together? And get paid more than any defensive back ever has? With two years left on his rookie deal? That’s another question.

Stay tuned.

From Kyle Scully (@socal_scully): Usually draftees go up to the podium, shake hands and get a hat. Will they be sent a few potential hats in advance? Are any of them planning to dress up?

Kyle, I haven’t asked, but based on what I know, my guess is New Era will send prospects boxes of hats, so they and their families have everything they need to celebrate the occasion. We’ve seen this in the past with players who’ve decided to stay home. It’s not like Tim Tebow, for example, had a dozen Broncos hats just lying around on draft night in 2010.

As for how this will work, it sounds to me like the ESPN broadcast, anchored by Trey Wingo, will throw to NFL commissioner Roger Goodell as normal, with the obvious difference being that instead of it going from anchor desk to stage, it’ll be going from studio to … Goodell’s basement. And after Goodell announces picks, the ESPN broadcast will go to a highlight package, which is also customary, and show the draftee, if he’s one of the 58 to have the camera set-up in his house.

But despite all this, will it look the same? Of course not.

From New Year's K (@kstalz): What is the realistic return Washington can expect in a Trent Williams trade?

New Year’s, Washington never really had an ask for Williams last year, and his contract status further muddies the waters in ascertaining value here. His monetary demands a year ago were off the charts and, presumably, they’ll be more reasonable now. But he turns 32 this summer, has a lot of injury history and has had off-field missteps, so if he still wants something north of where the tackle market is now, that’ll hurt his draft-pick value.

That’s what’s challenging about this whole thing for everyone. Washington wants fair value for a premier player at a premier position. Williams wants one last bite of the financial apple—it’d be hard for him to count on another top-shelf contract after his next one. And what each side is seeking hurts the other’s pursuit. Williams would be easier to move if he’d take a discount on a deal. And he’d be more like to get a big contract if another team wasn’t assuming as much risk in what it gives up in draft pick compensation.

Given all that, if you ask me what’s fair, I’d say a second-round pick would be fair. Washington doesn’t have one right now. And so maybe some team comes out of the first round without its left tackle, needs one, and makes an offer on Friday morning.

From Ethan Gansel (@the_swaggy_E): Chiefs more likely to trade back or pick at 32?

From Sean Sims (@SeanSims7): Likelihood the Titans trade back?

Ethan and Sean, I’d put those two, along with Seattle, at the head of a class of teams that will be open for business with their picks late on Thursday night. If you don’t have too many pressing needs, this is a draft class you can let come to you—because I believe there will be runs of certain positions (tackle, linebacker, corner), good players are going to slide into the meat of the second round. So for those three teams, picking up some extra capital makes sense, if you think you’ll get a similar player at 45, as you would at 27, 29 or 32.

Now, if there are players that the Titans or Chiefs like, maybe they’ll stick. In my mock draft, I gave Tennessee the right tackle from Georgia, Isaiah Wilson, at No. 29 because I’ve heard him connected to the Titans. Likewise, I think guys like Kristian Fulton, Grant Delpit or A.J. Epenesa could be a consideration for Kansas City at 32, and I’ve also heard they like D’Andre Swift—though Andy Reid has no history of taking a running back that high.

But even in the case that someone one of those teams likes slips to them, I do think those teams will listen to any and all offers to move out of the first round. And maybe Love sitting there in that range, or the second wave of tackles starting to go, would be enough to draw something good out of teams with picks high in the second round.

From Tom Wellington (@min1berrycrunch): How badly are the Bengals going to mess this up?

Tom, I know the jury’s still out on Zac Taylor—and while I like the way he’s handling this offseason, and the staff he’s got there, that’s totally fair. But I’m not sure I totally get the lack of faith in the Cincinnati front office and scouting chief Duke Tobin. Yes, they’ve been in a slump of late draft-wise. But if you look at his personal track record, for the first half of the last decade, the Bengals carried one of the most talented rosters in the league.

Among those Tobin drafted from 2010-14: Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins, A.J. Green, Andy Dalton, Dre Kirkpatrick, Kevin Zeitler, Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, Gio Bernard, and Shawn Williams. Even more recently, he’s brought good young pieces like William Jackson, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Billy Price and Sam Hubbard onto the roster. And the team made the playoffs in five straight years pretty recently, and did it playing in the rugged AFC North.

Obviously, they have a lot to prove now. But it’s not like there’s no track record of success here. They have some good people in place. Let’s see where it goes with a new QB.

From Joe McKenny (@JoeMcKenny): What are the chances that either Judon or Ngakoue get traded this week? Do you know of any interested teams?

Joe, in both cases, I think we saw teams that saw the movement with tagged players a year ago (Frank Clark and Dee Ford were traded) as sort of a piece of insurance to go with the risk of franchising them. In other words, the Jaguars like Yannick Ngakoue and the Ravens like Matthew Judon, but figured the option to deal them would be there if things went off the rails one way or the other (and, with Ngakoue, it seems like we’re already there).

And now, we’re into draft week, and both guys are still on their rosters, with neither guy having signed a tender. The pandemic only further complicates these situations, making a long-term deal that much harder to get done ahead of time, since physicals can’t be taken and face-to-face meetings can’t happen. So to do a trade, in the either case, at this point, the player would have to sign his tender, and probably work out parameters of a long-term deal with his new team, with both taking the leap of faith the physical would work out OK.

Could it happen? Sure it could. But it won’t be simple, and if either player doesn’t like the team he’s going to in a deal, he can just refuse to sign his tender or negotiate with them. We’ll see if something happens between now and tomorrow. Both players do have some value, and so maybe someone makes an offer.

From ropese (@ropese34): Do you see the Pats making a move that would net them a second round pick in this draft?

Ropese, I think the Patriots would love to do that. I’ve heard them associated with a number of players—Notre Dame TE Cole Kmet, Alabama S Xavier McKinney, Oklahoma LB Kenneth Murray and Michigan C Cesar Ruiz among them—and one thing that’s jumped out at me is how all over the map these guys are. That underscores the situation the team is in. They have to get younger pretty much everywhere.

That’s a long way of say: Yes, I can absolutely see them moving down, and maybe out of the first round to fill in the gap that they have between the 23rd and 87th overall picks. Maybe something crazy will happen and they’ll move up (obviously, Tua Tagovailoa falling could qualify as a crazy circumstance). But I think if all things are equal, they’d like to start stocking their roster with younger guys, and they do that by building draft pick volume.

From None Ya (@hambleedsgreen): Do you think Alshon gets moved on draft night?

I think the Eagles would like to move Jeffery, yes. The problem is, his market value is probably close to nothing right now. He’s 30, coming off a serious foot injury, has grown a reputation for being difficult in both his NFL homes, failed to even get halfway to 1,000 yards last year, and is due eight figures in cash, with over $11 million guaranteed.

Could Philly move him? Sure, if they’re willing to take pennies on the dollar and maybe eat some salary. And maybe, with a young receiver or two likely incoming on draft weekend, they want to get rid of him that badly, where they’re OK doing it. Even then, I’d have trouble figuring a team that would really want him.

From Simón Uribe (@suribepe): Name one player that everyone expects to go high first, but ends up falling.

Simon, the obvious one would be Tua Tagovailoa. We’ll see what happens with him, but for now, I have him getting scooped up by the Chargers at No. 6. Outside of that, looking at my mock, there aren’t a ton of shockers I have, mostly because I think, beyond the clump of four elite defenders, four tackles and three quarterbacks at the top, the rest of the round is very fluid, and dictated by runs on certain positions.

I guess it’d be a surprise to some that I have seven tackles going in the first round. And maybe it’s a surprise to see Henry Ruggs ahead of CeeDee Lamb (though that, in this case, is very team specific). And LSU CB Kristian Fulton lasting until 32 probably would surprise certain folks. But honestly, and I’m not saying this as a cop out, there’s a lot of volatility in how this is going to go once you get into the teens.

From michael christopher (@Bigdogz1318): If there is no NFL season next year how would the draft work? Like would Cincy still have first pick and what happens if rookies don’t sign their contract because they didn’t want to go to team, would they go back into draft pool.

Michael, I’ll answer your last question first: My guess is they wouldn’t go back into the draft pool. I’d think the league would make a one-year exception on that. As for the first part, I actually answered the question in March, and used the best applicable comp I could find (what happened after the canceled NHL season of 2004-05), so I’ll run that one back here …

For its 2005 draft, the NHL put the entire league into a weighted lottery, based on playoff appearances in the 2001-02, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons, and the first overall picks in the four previous drafts. Teams that had no playoff appearances or first overall picks in that period got three lottery balls. Teams that had one playoff appearance or first pick in that period got two balls. Everyone else got one ball. Forty-eight balls went in, and the first round was drawn. And from there, it was a snake draft, with order reversing each round.

What was the impact of all that? The Penguins wound up with the first pick after getting the second pick the year before. The No. 2 pick in 2004 was Evgeni Malkin. The first pick in the 2005 draft was … Sidney Crosby. That’s two Hall of Famers and the foundation for three Stanley Cups.

Of course, none of us want the NFL, or any of the other sports leagues, to be pushed down that road because of the crisis in our country. But it was fun to look that up, anyway.

From RIP MAMBA & GIGI (@raider_chucky): What do you expect the Las Vegas Raiders to do on Thursday? Could you see a QB?

RIP, I would not fall out of my chair if the Raiders took a falling Tagovailoa. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they, say, took a flier on Georgia’s Jake Fromm on Friday. Which, as I see it, sort of puts them where they’ve been at quarterback since Jon Gruden returned to the team two years ago.

As for the best-laid plans on Thursday, I see receiver and corner at the top of their list. And I was told Gruden’s looking specifically for a “Z” receiver (flanker), which is exactly what Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy is. So I could see Jeudy and then someone like A.J. Terrell with the second of the team’s first-rounders. Or they could take C.J. Henderson at 12, and then find a receiver later on.

In the backdrop of all of this is word that’s circulated that the Raiders would like to trade down with one of those picks and maybe get a second-rounder, since they don’t have one right now (they got their second first-round, and lost their second-rounder, as part of the Khalil Mack trade). The draft value chart shows that the Raiders could, on paper, ask for a late two or early three in return for moving down a dozen or so spots. The question then, of course, would be what someone else would be coming up to No. 19 for.

But that’s all part of the fun of tomorrow night.

 

 

 

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Iceman

Iceman 2956

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I'm glad we have some semblance of sport tonight, kind of like watching the Jordan 30 for 30 on Sunday night.

However, why do I feel like this is gonna feel like watching someone else's fantasy draft tonight... or B-O-R-I-N-G???

 

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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4548

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18 hours ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I also wonder what the thought process is based on "will they have a NFL season this year" or "will it be a shortened season".  Some teams may trade a bunch of picks for 2021 or do the opposite as they may not want a ton of 2021 picks (if there is no college football this year) because they will have trouble scouting players who didn't play for a year.  

These are my questions. If 2020 is realistically not going to be played, every player on your roster is losing a year (at least in time, not mileage) and decreasing their future value. Divesting your team of “older” veterans, even at a discount, might be wise. If you can trade back or put a couple times for 2021 draft capital, it’s not really going to piss off your fans that you are down a star rookie this year because there is no this year. And you get more buzz in the 2021 draft. 
 

The point about a 2021 draft based on how players performed as NCAA underclassmen in 2019 is valid. It might be a crap shoot, and even more reason to keep trading down and shotgunning more draft picks to see what hits. 

Being married into a Mass. family, I am a little sad to see the Patriots’ dynasty end with Brady and Gronk in Tampa and the aging core remaining to be led by Bobby Hoyer (lol fuck nah). Once again, the Patriots could be the luckiest damn franchise to come out of COVID for these reasons...their core people will be two years older in 2021 than when they were last on the field getting run over by the Titans. Belichick could cut all these mother fuckers to get them off the books as soon as 2020 looks to be canceled, and replenish the roster with hoards of 2nd-5th round picks that he tends to accumulate. Unrelated to the draft, I expect NE to sign Andy Dalton when the dust settles. Stidham beat out Hoyer last year and Hoyer sucks balls. Indy is paying most of his salary and I believe virtually nothing is guaranteed of the $1M veteran deal NE gave him. He’s just insurance/knows the system/camp meat.

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6586

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37 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

These are my questions. If 2020 is realistically not going to be played, every player on your roster is losing a year (at least in time, not mileage) and decreasing their future value. Divesting your team of “older” veterans, even at a discount, might be wise. If you can trade back or put a couple times for 2021 draft capital, it’s not really going to piss off your fans that you are down a star rookie this year because there is no this year. And you get more buzz in the 2021 draft. 
 

The point about a 2021 draft based on how players performed as NCAA underclassmen in 2019 is valid. It might be a crap shoot, and even more reason to keep trading down and shotgunning more draft picks to see what hits. 

Being married into a Mass. family, I am a little sad to see the Patriots’ dynasty end with Brady and Gronk in Tampa and the aging core remaining to be led by Bobby Hoyer (lol fuck nah). Once again, the Patriots could be the luckiest damn franchise to come out of COVID for these reasons...their core people will be two years older in 2021 than when they were last on the field getting run over by the Titans. Belichick could cut all these mother fuckers to get them off the books as soon as 2020 looks to be canceled, and replenish the roster with hoards of 2nd-5th round picks that he tends to accumulate. Unrelated to the draft, I expect NE to sign Andy Dalton when the dust settles. Stidham beat out Hoyer last year and Hoyer sucks balls. Indy is paying most of his salary and I believe virtually nothing is guaranteed of the $1M veteran deal NE gave him. He’s just insurance/knows the system/camp meat.

Good points.  One thought on the draft is instead of stockpiling for next year someone like Belichick may want an extra year of those young draft picks under his tutelage even if it’s virtual.  Other organizations may feel the same way.  Why roll the dice on a young draft pick next year when you can draft one now and groom them (without live games possibly) for a year?  As far as the Patriots I think they go with Stidham and see what he has got.  For all we know he is as good as Dalton or any other game manager.  They don’t have cap room for Dalton anyway unless he wants the minimum or they start cutting players which I don’t see happening.  I would love to grab Newton on a minimum deal and see what he has left but he will probably get more than that elsewhere.  It will be an interesting draft and an interesting year.  What if there is no NFL season and Brady and Gronk never play again but the Patriots got a draft pick and future cap space for them?  That would be the luck you mentioned that the Pats could get.

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satyanash

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(Jeff Howe) 2020 NFL Draft: Evaluations, projections for the Longhorns

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When the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft gets underway Thursday, the wait begins for five Texas Longhorn products hoping to hear their respective names called over the course of three days, seven rounds 255 picks. The process leading up to this draft has been unlike any other. The coronavirus pandemic wiped out the overwhelming number of visits clubs could take to see prospects on the road, including a pro day Texas had scheduled for April 1 with communication between the teams and prospective draftees limited to video conferencing and phone calls only.

The saving grace for four Longhorns — wide receivers Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson, safety Brandon Jones and defensive lineman Malcolm Roach — is they were at least able to get in front of teams at the NFL Scouting Combine. Duvernay participated in the combine and at the Senior Bowl, which has helped him raise his stock to the level of a potential second or third-round pick. Johnson was on the field competing in Mobile, Ala. in January, an event that in hindsight was significant for him since he wasn’t able to work out at the combine due to a hip flexor issue.

Jones didn’t get to compete in either event due to shoulder surgery he underwent after his senior season concluded. Nevertheless, he impressed teams in interviews so much that he’s squarely in the conversation as a potential third-round selection. Roach made the most of his combine outing, a performance that drew rave reviews and elevated him into the pool of players expected to be selected in the late round of the draft or signed immediately after the draft comes to a close as a priority free agent.

Zach Shackelford is in the boat as Roach, hoping to hear either his name called or get a contract when the seventh round of the draft ends on Saturday. Although offensive lineman Parker Braun and linebacker Jeffrey McCulloch are among those looking to catch on with a team in the coming days, Horns247’s NFL draft preview will focus on the five aforementioned Longhorns.

Through various mock drafts, thoughts an NFL scouting director shared with Horns247’s Chip Brown recently and through exclusive analysis from CBS Sports draft analyst Josh Edwards, what follows is a comprehensive look at where the Longhorns in the draft pool could wind up calling home by the end of the weekend.

Devin Duvernay, WR

NFL.com projection: Rounds 3-4

CBS Sports rankings: No. 95 overall, No. 15 wide receiver

Josh Edwards Top 250: No. 80

Edwards on Duvernay: "I love Duvernay. I have him going in the third round right now but I would have no problem with him going in the second. He is a reliable pass catcher with a compact frame. I love his awareness along the sidelines and his ability to identify and find the weakness in zone coverage. He shows good range for the position. I would be comfortable with him operating out of the slot."

Duvernay's mock draft projections

Ryan Wilson, CBS: Baltimore Ravens, third round (No. 106)

R.J. White, CBS: New York Giants, fifth round (No. 150)

Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: Los Angeles Rams, second round (No. 57)

Todd McShay, ESPN: Baltimore Ravens, second round (No. 60)

Dane Brugler, The Athletic: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, fourth round (No. 117)

Matt Miller, Bleacher Report: Tennessee Titans, third round (No. 93)

Chad Reuter, NFL.com: Indianapolis Colts, sixth round (No. 197)

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Philadelphia Eagles, fourth round (No. 146)

NFL scouting director, fourth or fifth round: "Duvernay will probably go in the fourth round even though he might be a third-round-type talent because he only has one real season of film. But he'll probably play in the league for 10 years as a starter or backup/special teams guy. I like him. He's tough, fast, physical with great hands. He has a place in the league, especially if he gets with the right team."

Collin Johnson, WR

NFL.com projection: Round 6

CBS Sports rankings: No. 145 overall, No. 26 wide receiver

Josh Edwards Top 250: No. 217

Edwards on Johnson: "Johnson is a late-round flier for me. His size will present problems to the opposition but his speed is limited, which could be a problem in today's NFL. He does have good range to make the catch and is capable of making a splashy play. I like that Johnson uses his body well to shield himself from the defender; almost like a basketball player going up for the rebound."

Johnson's mock draft projections

R.J. White, CBS: New Orleans Saints, fourth round (No. 130)

Dane Brugler, The Athletic: Jacksonville Jaguars, fourth round (No. 137)

Matt Miller, Bleacher Report: New Orleans Saints, fourth round (No. 130)

Chad Reuter, NFL.com: New Orleans Saints, fifth round (No. 169)

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Minnesota Vikings, fifth round (No. 155)

NFL scouting director, fourth or fifth round: "I like Collin Johnson. I don't love him. He might not even be a 4.6 guy (in the 40), and at 6-foot-6, he doesn't always use his body the way he should to wall off defenders. Inconsistent. He's made big catches at critical times on third down and late in games, which will get him drafted. But he's going to need to become a physical, special teams guy in the league and show he can tackle someone like his father (former Texas and NFL defensive back Johnnie Johnson) used to."

Brandon Jones, S

NFL.com projection: Round 4

CBS Sports rankings: No. 120 overall, No. 12 safety

Josh Edwards Top 250 ranking: No. 222

Edwards on Jones: "Jones is a late-round pick from what I have seen. He is inconsistent as an open-field tackler and his athleticism does not jump off the page. I do like that he plays to the whistle and seems to be a pretty smart player. He possesses good size for the position and does a great job targeting the football after the catch."

Jones' mock draft projections

R.J. White, CBS: Seattle Seahawks, third round (No. 101)

Dane Brugler, The Athletic: Indianapolis Colts, fourth round (No. 122)

Matt Miller, Bleacher Report: Detroit Lions, fourth round (No. 109)

Chad Reuter, NFL.com: New York Jets, fourth round (No. 120)

Luke Easterling, USA Today: Las Vegas Raiders, third round (No. 80)

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Dallas Cowboys, fifth round (No. 164)

NFL scouting director, fourth or fifth round: "I like Jones, but it will be hard for scouting directors to stand on a wall for the guy because he's battled some injuries. He's got enough film showing he can cover ground, close and make a sure tackle. He's played safety and nickel, which shows versatility. He's not great in coverage, but his ability to diagnose, especially in the run game, and then close with physicality will get him drafted. Texas says he's a good character guy who plays injured. That will help him."

Malcolm Roach, DL

NFL.com projection: Rounds 6-7

CBS Sports rankings: No. 298 overall, No. 26 defensive lineman

Josh Edwards Top 250 ranking: NR

Edwards on Roach: "Roach was a defensive tackle playing on the edge. I do not have a draftable grade on him because he is difficult to project. With his size, he should not be trying to beat a tackle around the edge every time, he should be trying to win with strength and leverage. I did not see any of that in his game. He is slow out of his stance. He plays to the whistle but I needed to see more from him."

Roach's mock draft projections

R.J. White, CBS: Washington Redskins, seventh round (No. 229)

Dane Brugler, The Athletic: San Francisco 49ers, seventh round (No. 217)

Matt Miller, Bleacher Report: New England Patriots, seventh round (No. 241)

Chad Reuter, NFL.com: Tennessee Titans, seventh round (No. 224)

NFL scouting director, seventh round or undrafted: "Roach is probably 3-4 defensive end in the league. But I'm not sure there's enough good film on him for him to get drafted. Texas says he's an effort guy, which is good. Not having a pro day probably hurts him because teams didn't get to see his ball get-off or agility and bend through the cone drills. If he excelled in those areas, a team might take a chance on him as a 3-technique (defensive tackle) in a 4-3."

Zach Shackelford, C

CBS Sports rankings: No. 313 overall, No. 55 offensive line

Josh Edwards Top 250 ranking: No. 235

Edwards on Shackelford: "I watched one game of Shackelford early in the season and came away impressed. As I got back around to him later in the year, I had to level out his grade a little bit. He is now a late sixth, early seventh-round pick in my eyes. He snaps out of his stance quickly and is really solid when engaged. However, his lateral quickness and ability to stone counters are a bit of an issue. I like that he looks for work when there is no work in his gap."

R.J. White, CBS: San Francisco 49ers, seventh round (No. 245)

NFL scouting director, seventh round or undrafted: "There are game films I like of his and a lot that I don't. A little slow identifying games (twists, stunts) on the defensive line. Smart. But footwork is choppy, and he lacks that nasty punch you want in a center. A little too inconsistent to be on my board as a draft pick. But should go to a camp with someone."

 

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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4548

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

They don’t have cap room for Dalton anyway unless he wants the minimum or they start cutting players which I don’t see happening.  I would love to grab Newton on a minimum deal and see what he has left but he will probably get more than that elsewhere. 

Who will be looking for a FA QB (for more than a vet contract)? 
Cincinnati - presumably will draft and start Burrow.

Miami likely to draft a QB, and they have Fitzpatrick.

SD has Tyrod and many think they will draft Herbert or Tua.

Jags claim they plan to start Minshew. Maybe a FA destination.

Bears brought in Foles to compete with Trubisky. 

Vegas - Carr and Mariota, may draft a QB (and if Carr is cut, he’d be a more attractive FA than Dalton or Newton).

New England - Stidham and Hoyer? Ehhhh

Denver - Elway going to bump Lock before he even starts?

Backup jobs (possibly) open in NYJ, TEN, PHI, GB, MIN, LAR, SEA

 

I think Dalton and Newton will have slim pickings, so if they want to start they may have to take a low cost deal. 

Edited by Murfdogg21
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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6586

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Who will be looking for a FA QB (for more than a vet contract)? 
Cincinnati - presumably will draft and start Burrow.

Miami likely to draft a QB, and they have Fitzpatrick.

SD has Tyrod and many think they will draft Herbert or Tua.

Jags claim they plan to start Minshew. Maybe a FA destination.

Bears brought in Foles to compete with Trubisky. 

Vegas - Carr and Mariota, may draft a QB (and if Carr is cut, he’d be a more attractive FA than Dalton or Newton).

New England - Stidham and Hoyer? Ehhhh

Denver - Elway going to bump Lock before he even starts?

Backup jobs (possibly) open in NYJ, TEN, PHI, GB, MIN, LAR, SEA

 

I think Dalton and Newton will have slim pickings, so if they want to start they may have to take a low cost deal. 

Winston also.

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hundredTT

hundredTT 578

Posted
Posted

Random predictions:

Justin Jefferson will be the best WR from the class. 

RB Swift will win the OROY

Derrick Brown Will be DROY

Justin Herbert will be a huge bust.

Chase Young will be good, not great. 
 

Burrow will a Carson Palmer/Matt Stafford level career. Solid player, but will never win anything big. I mean, who does with the Bengals? 
 

And surprise surprise, Tua will have a RG3 type career. A lot of promise at first, then Injuries will relegate him to a backup at best. 

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youdunnf'dup

youdunnf'dup 2147

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Newy25 said:

Jordan Love is hot fucking garbage. I do not know how anyone watching his film can think he should be drafted in the first round. 

Just in terms of raw talent, he’s easily the best qb in the draft. So if you’re a coach that has a lot of confidence, you can say “I know exactly what went wrong at Utah state. If I get him here and get back to the fundamentals, he’s the guy”. Not saying I agree with that, but it makes perfect sense.

 

If he would’ve had his pro day, I think we’d be hearing a lot more about Jordan love as a top 15 lock, just because of the wow factor of his talent (kinda like how josh Allen was a few years ago)

Edited by youdunnf'dup
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hundredTT

hundredTT 578

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, George Clooney said:

I think it could happen if he gets drafted into the perfect situation. Both Chubb and Michel were better than him entering the draft. I think Jonathan Taylor has more promise.

I love Taylor and feel he could be great. But something tells me Swift’s gonna go off next season. But yep, all depends on the team as well. Can’t wait for tonight! 

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