Hiring small time coaches leads to small time results

[C-Man 27,052]

12 hours ago, RiceOwl said:

The Big 12 is the second best conference per the computers...

It's extremely deep. But it lacks top-level teams. It's like the Bizarro SEC. Only Kansas can't seem to beat anybody in any given week.

 

[Tommy Shelby 188]

4 minutes ago, C-Man said:

It's extremely deep. But it lacks top-level teams. It's like the Bizarro SEC. Only Kansas can't seem to beat anybody in any given week.

 

So everyone is mediocre?

[Fozzz 152]

14 hours ago, RiceOwl said:

That said-if you are to hire from the G5 level, you need to hire a coach who has succeeded at a G5 school where it’s tough to win (see Rhule, Matt or Fleck, PJ)... Not UH which will always have great talent (by G5 standards) due to its location and academic standards (lack thereof).

This is a good point and part of the reason why I didn’t understand the hype surrounding his name when he was hired. It’s really not that hard to win at UH. 

[C-Man 27,052]

4 minutes ago, Tommy Shelby said:

So everyone is mediocre?

Pretty much. Our "top" teams are going to get smacked around in the bowl games but I'm guessing we'll win the majority of the mid-level, lower-tier bowl game matchups.

[El Diablo 4,232]

1 hour ago, Tommy Shelby said:

So everyone is mediocre?

Yes, but it's top shelf okra. 

[hornhorn 100]

16 hours ago, NowThis said:

their bowl game will tell a lot. The Big 12 is full of mediocre teams, even OU, so i'm guessing Baylor will fall against a real top 10 team.

If Big 12 if full of mediocre teams then how come a barely mid tier Texas took the SEC West champ LSU down to the wire?

[Zavala 1,384]

11 hours ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Well, dummy, we would also have a loss to OU or our one special OOC opponent at 10-1. But I’m sure they’ll put an asterisk on the trophy should BU win the conference. 

You were arguing they are getting into the playoffs with a loss to OU, they aren't. They have beat everyone in a shitty conference, and some cupcakes. They lost to blowU at home, their only tough opponent. Even if they beat em in Arlington, they aren't getting into the playoff.

Don't shift the goalposts, dummy.

[Zavala 1,384]

7 hours ago, El Diablo said:

It seems to be that you believe that the other teams in this conference suck, the officiating sucks and that if UT were simply somewhere else then all would be good and the Longhorns would be winning. The deck is stacked against Texas. <- This is the mentality of a loser.

The grass is greener in the SEC because it sits on top of a septic tank.

I'm not saying the deck is stacked against Texas. I'm saying this piss poor conference puts $$ ahead of the game of football. The teams that the league hope get the shit12 into the playoff are protected. Look at the end of that blowU game yesterday. It's a joke.

We will probably get the benefit of every call if we beat LSU next year and Sam is back to his usually Heisman hopeful self.

Still, the fact remains, the only two teams in this conference worth a fuck are Texas and blowU. The league setup sucks shit because Jerry Jones gets his Red River Shootout by having the conference championship be a rematch in that stale shitty stadium in Arlington.

[Augustus 3,061]

8 hours ago, Girdwood said:

He’s not. He’ll be exposed soon. 

This is such loser, sour grapes bullshit.

Same with the similar comments about Ed O.

[Augustus 3,061]

4 minutes ago, Zavala said:

I'm not saying the deck is stacked against Texas.

You say that all the time.

You started a thread dedicated to that very assertion.

[Augustus 3,061]

58 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

If Big 12 if full of mediocre teams then how come a barely mid tier Texas took the SEC West champ LSU down to the wire?

The SEC must've been full of great teams last year because A&M took national champ Clemson down to the wire.

[Nivek 16,859]

Tressel was at Youngstown St. Good coaches can be found anywhere. All you have to do is know what you’re looking for, and not get wowed by pretty lights. 

Urban was Utah State IIRC. Notre Dame has the same shit hiring process.

[hornhorn 100]

1 minute ago, Augustus said:

The SEC must've been full of great teams last year because A&M took national champ Clemson down to the wire.

Different QB won the national championship at Clemson than the one who played against aggy but let's not let the facts get in the middle of your stupid narrative.

[Augustus 3,061]

3 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

Different QB won the national championship at Clemson than the one who played against aggy but let's not let the facts get in the middle of your stupid narrative.

A one-game sample size is a stupid narrative, you troglodyte.

[hornhorn 100]

Just now, Augustus said:

A one-game sample size is a stupid narrative, you troglodyte.

STFU dumbass, now you're moving goalposts since your earlier argument was eviscerated. Given your low critical thinking skills no wonder you ended up at aggy instead of UT. 

[Augustus 3,061]

5 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

STFU dumbass, now you're moving goalposts since your earlier argument was eviscerated. Given your low critical thinking skills no wonder you ended up at aggy instead of UT. 

Your argument was:

Texas played LSU close, therefore the Big 12 is not full of mediocre teams.

If you can't identify the abundance of logical fallacies in that argument, then you shouldn't brag about having attended UT (if you did).

I offered you an equally fallacious example.  Your arguing that my fallacious argument wasn't equivalent in its fallacy is laugh worthy.

I'd advise you to never presume to criticize someone else's critical thinking.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Augustus

[hornhorn 100]

Just now, Augustus said:

Your argument was:

Texas played LSU close, therefore the Big 12 is not full of mediocre teams.

If you can't identify abundance of logical fallacies in that argument, then you shouldn't brag about having attended UT (if you did).

I offered you an equally fallacious example.  Your arguing that my fallacious argument wasn't equivalent in its fallacy is laugh worthy.

No, the original argument was that BIG XII sucks this year because everyone keeps playing everyone close. Even the top tier teams. 

So, I pointed out that a mediocre to bad Texas team played SEC West champion LSU a top tier team in the SEC fairly close. 

How you cannot see those two points make sense is a clear indication of your dumbassery, SEC SEC SEC bias and usual aggy hide behind other SEC teams BS that aggies are well known for. 

The fact that you support the crotch grabbing cult that are the aggies is laugh worthy, run along now. 

[Michael Knight 12,896]

Name the last successful p5 coach that went from his successful program to another p5 program and was successful.

[Augustus 3,061]

3 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

No, the original argument was that BIG XII sucks this year because everyone keeps playing everyone close. Even the top tier teams. 

No, it wasn't.  

The original post by Now This was simply:  "Their bowl game will tell a lot. The Big 12 is full of mediocre teams, even OU, so i'm guessing Baylor will fall against a real top 10 team."

To which you replied, rather clumsily:  "If Big 12 if full of mediocre teams then how come a barely mid tier Texas took the SEC West champ LSU down to the wire?"

You're not just a little dumb, you're dishonest.

[Augustus 3,061]

2 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Name the last successful p5 coach that went from his successful program to another p5 program and was successful.

Does an NFL stint in between count?

Because Saban and Spurrier come to mind, along with Urban.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Augustus

[hornhorn 100]

2 minutes ago, Augustus said:

No, it wasn't.  

The original post by Now This was simply:  "Their bowl game will tell a lot. The Big 12 is full of mediocre teams, even OU, so i'm guessing Baylor will fall against a real top 10 team."

To which you replied, rather clumsily:  "If Big 12 if full of mediocre teams then how come a barely mid tier Texas took the SEC West champ LSU down to the wire?"

You're not just a little dumb, you're dishonest.

I explained my position based on the implication made by the original poster. 

To which you clumsily posted that its one game. Baylor and OU have both played Texas just once this year as well. You know, one game. 

You're too dumb to understand anything beyond what's posted. Like I said, it might go well on TexAgs, but not here. Run along....

[Bobby_Batronic 1,994]

46 minutes ago, Zavala said:

You were arguing they are getting into the playoffs with a loss to OU, they aren't. They have beat everyone in a shitty conference, and some cupcakes. They lost to blowU at home, their only tough opponent. Even if they beat em in Arlington, they aren't getting into the playoff.

Don't shift the goalposts, dummy.

You go ahead and quote where I posted any such thing, dumbass, and when you don’t find it feel free to go fuck your self. 

[TexArcher 37,508]

I don't agree with the original premise.

Urban Meyer had success at Utah then at Florida and Ohio St.

Saban had success at Michigan St then at LSU and Bama.

Hell, Mack had success at UNC then at Texas.

Good coaches are good coaches.

I think the problem with Strong and Herman is the coordinators.  Those playcallers were slightly better than the other playcallers they were going up against, then they moved to better conferences and found themselves at a disadvantage instead of an advatage.  And it's compounded by the the fact that their bosses have too much loyalty to fire them and replace them with better guys.

It's basically the Peter Principle applied to football coaches: those coordinators rose to a level of incompetence and then were difficult to get rid of.

[VirginiaLonghorn 4,750]

5 hours ago, Tommy Shelby said:

So everyone is mediocre?

Without question. 

[Michael Knight 12,896]

10 minutes ago, Augustus said:

Does an NFL stint in between count?

Because Saban and Spurrier come to mind, along with Urban.

Last I checked the 1st two you mentioned were abject failures there so does that turn them into small time coaches? Also I don't think anyone would describe Spurriers tenure at SC as successful . But the list is Saban and Meyer; that's it. We also tried to hire one of those 2.

[Augustus 3,061]

8 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Last I checked the 1st two you mentioned were abject failures there so does that turn them into small time coaches? Also I don't think anyone would describe Spurriers tenure at SC as successful . But the list is Saban and Meyer; that's it. We also tried to hire one of those 2.

Spurrier went 11-2 for three straight seasons at South Carolina.

That's amazingly successful at that program.  Everything is relative.

[Burt Macklin 18,998]

Most big time coaches teams hire were let go/allowed to leave from their last place for worrisome reasons or are on the down slope and just looking for a payout(hi Jimbo!). 
 

Most schools are faced with either hiring G5 HC’s who’ve had a lot of success or coordinators from big time programs with little to no HC experience or success. 

Any of those 3 options include a good amount of risk and none are proven to work better than others. OP’s statement is just an overreaction to Texas recent two coaches. 

I think you can make the argument that the best option is promoting a coordinator/coach who’s been on staff already because the AD knows the most about them, I.e. Dabo, Riley, Ryan Day, Malzahn, etc. But even that route will have a good amount of misses and in order to do that, you have to actually have a good coach on staff, so it’s not an option for us. 

I’d prefer to poach a current P5 coach like Fleck or Campbell, or someone of that ilk. But Fleck has a huge buyout and when combined with Herman’s would be tough to pull off even after next year and Campbell still hasn’t done better than 8-4 yet, so he’s no guaranteed home run.  I also think Fuente at VT is a good coach. They were bad last year, but he’s building them back up and could look like a really good candidate by this time next year. 

[Ignatius 4,001]

1 hour ago, Michael Knight said:

Name the last successful p5 coach that went from his successful program to another p5 program and was successful.

How often do ‘successful’ coaches ever end up leaving P5 teams for another P5 team, without an NFL stop or ‘retirement’ in between?

Not a huge sample size....

[Michael Knight 12,896]

4 hours ago, Augustus said:

Spurrier went 11-2 for three straight seasons at South Carolina.

That's amazingly successful at that program.  Everything is relative.

He lost 5 or more games in 8 of 11 seasons. 

[HRSchenker 2,259]

Look at the last 5 head coaches that have won a national championship. Only two came from programs that won a national title with them as head coach (Saban and Meyer). Two were internal hires that never won as coordinators (Dabo and Jimbo). Gene Chizik went from 5-19 at Iowa State to 22-5 at Auburn. What we need is a coach who can recruit winners and coach them up to be national champions. If you put a gun to my head and made me hire a head coach it would be Bryan Harsin. He was great for our offense and has a history of beating OU but I don't think we can lure him away from his alma mater.

[BearConn 13]

On 11/23/2019 at 9:28 PM, NowThis said:

their bowl game will tell a lot. The Big 12 is full of mediocre teams, even OU, so i'm guessing Baylor will fall against a real top 10 team.

The Big12 is full of top ~35 teams. I wouldn’t call that mediocre. 
 

And who is a real top 10 team? Georgia who lost to a dog shit South Carolina team at home? Or Utah, who has yet to beat a ranked team? 2-loss Florida who’s best win will be vs a 4-loss Auburn team?  OU needed a miracle to beat Baylor. Are they a top 10 team? 
 

The reality is, after Clemson, Ohio State, and LSU, pretty much every team can be beaten. 

[TexArcher 37,508]

7 minutes ago, BearConn said:

The Big12 is full of top ~35 teams. I wouldn’t call that mediocre. 

Most people would.  You even pointed out that the best team in the conference doesn't look that great. 

OU is realistically somewhere between the 6th and 10th best team in the country.  At least 3 of the other 4 P5 conferences have a better team than the Big 12's best team (and Utah might argue that all 4 do). 

Baylor looks like a 9-3 team that's had everything go right in close games.

This conference is two good-but-not-great teams, four pretty good teams, and four bad teams.  Meh.

[Augustus 3,061]

3 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

Look at the last 5 head coaches that have won a national championship. Only two came from programs that won a national title with them as head coach (Saban and Meyer). Two were internal hires that never won as coordinators (Dabo and Jimbo). Gene Chizik went from 5-19 at Iowa State to 22-5 at Auburn. What we need is a coach who can recruit winners and coach them up to be national champions. If you put a gun to my head and made me hire a head coach it would be Bryan Harsin. He was great for our offense and has a history of beating OU but I don't think we can lure him away from his alma mater.

Jimbo was OC for Saban's 2003 LSU team.

[TexasPride10 573]

Not one team circled Baylor on their schedule as a big-time game to get excited for heading into this season. Thirteen teams circled Texas on their schedule. I'm not saying this totally excuses why Herman has looked like shit compared to Rhule this year, but it is at least part of the reason. 

[Js1 85,108]

26 minutes ago, TexasPride10 said:

Not one team circled Baylor on their schedule as a big-time game to get excited for heading into this season. Thirteen teams circled Texas on their schedule. I'm not saying this totally excuses why Herman has looked like shit compared to Rhule this year, but it is at least part of the reason. 

Every team has circled LSU and Alabama on their schedule.  Same with Oklahoma.  Same with Clemson or Georgia or Ohio State. 

And yet, we are the only one who is currently 6-5.  

The issue is Tom Herman, not because teams play their best against us.  That should be pretty motivating for Tom and his team, not a reason to lose as favorites.  If you can't motivate your team by telling them every program, from Rice to OU, has this game circled and can't wait to beat you, maybe the coach is the problem. 

[Don Johnson 4,745]

17 hours ago, Augustus said:

Spurrier went 11-2 for three straight seasons at South Carolina.

That's amazingly successful at that program.  Everything is relative.

He's easily the best coach in South Carolina history.  86-49.  Never had a losing season.  Won the East.  3 top 10 finishes.

Yeah, he was a "success" there.

[Don Johnson 4,745]

17 hours ago, Michael Knight said:

Name the last successful p5 coach that went from his successful program to another p5 program and was successful.

Dan Mullen - About to have his second straight 10+ win season and top 10 finish.

James Franklin - 11-3, 11-2, 9-4, currently 9-2 at PSU last 4 years.

[Michael Knight 12,896]

4 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Dan Mullen - About to have his second straight 10+ win season and top 10 finish.

James Franklin - 11-3, 11-2, 9-4, currently 9-2 at PSU last 4 years.

James Franklin lost as many games his first 3 years as Tom Herman has.

 

I don't know if you can call what Mullen did away Mississippi state successful,  he lost fewer than 4 games 1 time in 9 years.  I'm sure someone will come on here and say that's good for Mississippi state and somehow not small time

[Don Johnson 4,745]

7 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

James Franklin lost as many games his first 3 years as Tom Herman has.

 

I don't know if you can call what Mullen did away Mississippi state successful,  he lost fewer than 4 games 1 time in 9 years.  I'm sure someone will come on here and say that's good for Mississippi state and somehow not small time

So, are you saying that Franklin has not been successful at Penn State?

Dan Mullen is the first HC to leave MSU with a winning record since Darrell Royal in 1955.  He went 69-46.  Yes, any time you are the clear cut best coach in program history, you are considered a success.

Edited November 25, 2019 by Don Johnson

[Michael Knight 12,896]

3 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

So, are you saying that Franklin has not been successful at Penn State?

Dan Mullen is the first HC to leave MSU with a winning record since Darrell Royal in 1955.  He went 69-46.  Yes, any time you are the clear cut best coach in program history, you are considered a success.

Are you saying Tom Herman could still be a success here?

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Every team has circled LSU and Alabama on their schedule.  Same with Oklahoma.  Same with Clemson or Georgia or Ohio State. 

And yet, we are the only one who is currently 6-5.  

The issue is Tom Herman, not because teams play their best against us.  That should be pretty motivating for Tom and his team, not a reason to lose as favorites.  If you can't motivate your team by telling them every program, from Rice to OU, has this game circled and can't wait to beat you, maybe the coach is the problem. 

This is kind of the point I thought the OP was getting at, but wasn't.    There are two types of CFB jobs, blue bloods and development.   Blue bloods have the 5* classes of players who are ready, athletically, to walk on the field and compete with anyone.   Developments need to take 3-4* guys and get them in the weight room or work on their skills so that they can compete a year or two later.  

The assumption is getting those 5*s equals success, but for every Alabama, there is another top five recruiting class flaming out.  Fleck and Campbell and Rhule and the bulk of successful small to big highers, are developmental and succeed when the kid grows in their system, buys into their program, lives the dream, rows the goddamn boat.   You can't really put your system in place when you have a kid showing up in July and starting in September, you have to coach 5* classes different than development classes.  

Saban does this, Meyer did this, Dabo adjusted to be successful; Herman doesn't seem to be able to grasp this.   Strong couldn't either.  An abundance of talent goes wasted or gets showed up by guys who were coached to be better.

On a side note, where success should really be showing when out recruiting is in the trenches.   The air raid was developed to negate that advantage for schools who couldn't recruit in the trenches.   Out recruiting WRs doesn't get you anything. the OL and DL should be NFL quality.    Both are getting shredded.

[jdhorn92 1,538]

On 11/24/2019 at 10:16 AM, C-Man said:

It's extremely deep. But it lacks top-level teams. It's like the Bizarro SEC. Only Kansas can't seem to beat anybody in any given week.

 

Give the SECSEC 7 more losses and they look a lot more mediocre.  BS of not playing 9 conference games waters down the w-l records and makes them appear better.  But as the SEC commish has said, "why fix something that is not broken?".  Hard to argue with the results.

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

4 hours ago, Michael Knight said:

Are you saying Tom Herman could still be a success here?

Actually, yes, he could. It's not likely, but it is perfectly conceivable. It would involve cleaning house at the end of this year, maybe changing religions, certainly completely revamping his outlook on how successful coaches are supposed to act, and just generally turning himself into something that he currently is not.

It doesn't happen often, in any profession, not just coaching, but every now and then, it does happen.

What's more likely, though, is another offseason of entrenchment, followed by a disappointing hot season year, followed by getting fired.

[JBJ 3,649]

On 11/24/2019 at 3:32 PM, TexArcher said:

It's basically the Peter Principle applied to football coaches: those coordinators rose to a level of incompetence and then were difficult to get rid of.

Saban's coordinators (1) come from UTSA (2) was a failure at USC who then turned the Falcons from the best NFL offense into bottom tier.

It's just not so easy to identify what coach will work teaching what system to what athletes.

6 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

The assumption is getting those 5*s equals success, but for every Alabama, there is another top five recruiting class flaming out.  Fleck and Campbell and Rhule and the bulk of successful small to big highers, are developmental and succeed when the kid grows in their system, buys into their program, lives the dream, rows the goddamn boat.   You can't really put your system in place when you have a kid showing up in July and starting in September, you have to coach 5* classes different than development classes.  

Every consistent top tier recruiter has that same success.  Even in the modern age "Jimmies and Joes" beat "X&Os."  Where people get caught up is that having one top 5 class does not give you Alabama's roster.  It takes 4-5 successful recruiting hauls to get to that point.

It less about maximizing the development of every blue chip recruit and more about having 3 or 4 to choose from at every position.

Edited November 25, 2019 by JBJ

[ShowMeALoss 143]

When in doubt, go with statistics. People who are pointing out some examples of successes here and there by "small time" coaches, need to realize that those things are rare. Also, I don't get why people are so enamored with Matt Campbell. Just because he has had some success at Iowa State and has beaten a few top tier teams doesn't mean he can have sustained success at the top. You want someone who has proven that they can do it at an elite level for a sustained period of time. You can still get it wrong but the chances of getting it wrong diminishes quite a bit.

[lemonandaturd 4,285]

2 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Actually, yes, he could. It's not likely, but it is perfectly conceivable. It would involve cleaning house at the end of this year, maybe changing religions, certainly completely revamping his outlook on how successful coaches are supposed to act, and just generally turning himself into something that he currently is not.

It doesn't happen often, in any profession, not just coaching, but every now and then, it does happen.

What's more likely, though, is another offseason of entrenchment, followed by a disappointing hot season year, followed by getting fired.

Hire Joe Brady and Dave Aranda.  Eat ravoli, mumble incoherently, go undefeated and go to the CFP.  

[Fondren & Main 6,669]

Maybe we should keep Herman around until the 49ers grow dissatisfied with Kyle Shanahan.

I wonder if Gundy could beat OU if he were the coach at Texas?  I know he could recruit a shit ton better.

[lemonandaturd 4,285]

I saw a comment that Steve Sarkisian is pie eyed drunk every day by 5 pm.  Someone should buy Tom a case of vodka.  

[JBJ 3,649]

55 minutes ago, JBJ said:

It less about maximizing the development of every blue chip recruit and more about having 3 or 4 to choose from at every position.

As an example Alabama has 8 5* defensive recruits the past 3 years.

2 transferred, 2 were injured most of this season, but expected to be starting or at least rotation, 2 starters (one was drafted 5th round, the other will be drafted), 2 won't ever start and only play in dead time.

That's a 50% maximum hit rate among 5 stars.  Not good.

----

All of our blue chips from 2018 are playing except Moore (headcase?) and Woodard.

Ehlinger was our only borderline bluechip from 2017.  Cosmi is debatable, but he was ranked very low.  Both will make NFL rosters.

From 2016, Hudson and Fowler were purged.  Shark never figured things out, Duv and Jones will play on Sundays.

-----

So Alabama will put 25%-50% of their FIVE STARS into the NFL.

We are on track to put about the same rate of HIGH FOUR STARS into the NFL.

It's a matter of volume right now, and we don't have the sort of roster where reloading should be expected.

Quality/development can be opined on, but I don't think is really clear until we see where the 2018 class ends up.

Edited November 25, 2019 by JBJ

[Augustus 3,061]

11 minutes ago, JBJ said:

As an example Alabama has 8 5* defensive recruits the past 3 years.

2 transferred, 2 were injured most of this season, but expected to be starting or at least rotation, 2 starters (one was drafted 5th round, the other will be drafted), 2 won't ever start and only play in dead time.

That's a 50% maximum hit rate among 5 stars.  Not good.

----

All of our blue chips from 2018 are playing except Moore (headcase?) and Woodard.

Ehlinger our are only borderline bluechip from 2017.  Cosmi is debatable, but he was ranked very low.  Both will make NFL rosters.

From 2016, Hudson and Fowler were purged.  Shark never figured things out, Duv and Jones will play on Sundays.

-----

So Alabama will put 25%-50% of their FIVE STARS into the NFL.

We are on track to put about the same rate of HIGH FOUR STARS into the NFL.

It's a matter of volume, not quality/development.

Texas has had significantly higher ranked recruits than the teams they've consistently lost to over the last decade.

It's about development.

Texas ranked, I believe, dead last at converting blue chip prospects to NFL draft picks.

It's about development.

Edited November 25, 2019 by Augustus