horse racing thread

[BigOrange1 6432]

big day of kentucky derby preps today with the wood memorial, blue grass stakes and santa anita derby all taking place.  really looking forward to the santa anita derby featuring bolt d'oro and justify.  

of course, it's going to hard to for any horse to be more impressive than mendelssohn was last weekend:

 

nbcsn has coverage at 4:30.

[IPoopOnWhoop 104]

I’m hoping that Mendelssohn get treated like the typical Dubai horses and gets sent off at 6/1 or 7/1

[BigOrange1 6432]

justify does not disappoint. 

but i have no idea why they let him get off so slow.

[thrillhammer 683]

some are saying this could be the best derby field ever.   lots of great horses: mendelssohn, justify, good magic, audible, noble indy, vino rosso.  none of them running again before that.  

[BigOrange1 6432]

it definitely looks like a very solid crop.  i've seen things i like from justify, mendelssohn, magnum moon, audible, good magic and vino rosso.  then there are horses like bolt d'oro, enticed and solomini who i like as well, just a bit less than the first crop.  looking forward to magnum moon vs. solomini in the arkansas derby this weekend.

[BigOrange1 6432]

starting my derby prep and i think i've got a solid top 6:

1. Justify
2. Mendelssohn
3. Magnum Moon
4. Audible
5. Good Magic
6. Vino Rosso

i need to do a lot more prep work, but as of now those are my 6.  right now i'm really focussing on mendelssohn and magnum moon.  if justify goes off at 3-1 or worse, i may just try and beat him with both of those (anticipating they'd be around 6-1 or better).  really like vino rosso in the bottom of the exotics.  

[thrillhammer 683]

3 of your 6 are pletcher horses.   throw in noble indy, and he's got a better shot than anyone.  i'm going to have to wait for jockey and post assignments but my list most likely won't differ much from yours.

[po elvis 2070]

Post Positions:

Post	Horse	Odds
1	Firenze Fire	50-1
2	Free Drop Billy	30-1
3	Promises Fulfilled	30-1
4	Flameaway	30-1
5	Audible	8-1
6	Good Magic	12-1
7	Justify	3-1
8	Lone Sailor	50-1
9	Hofburg	20-1
10	My Boy Jack	30-1
11	Bolt d'Oro	8-1
12	Enticed	30-1
13	Bravazo	50-1
14	Mendelssohn	5-1
15	Instilled Regard	50-1
16	Magnum Moon	6-1
17	Solomini	30-1
18	Vino Rosso	12-1
19	Noble Indy	30-1
20	Combatant	50-1

[po elvis 2070]

past performances:

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Derby18.pdf

 

[spystud13 2371]

ESPN’s write-up. 

Justify has been made the early 3-1 favorite for the Kentucky Derby, with Europe-based Mendelssohn the second choice in a full field of 20 horses.

Trained by four-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, Justify drew the No. 7 post on Tuesday. Six horses have won from there, most recently Street Sense in 2007.

Justify, the undefeated winner of the Santa Anita Derby, is one of two horses in Saturday's 1¼-mile race who didn't race at age 2. The other is 6-1 third choice Magnum Moon. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby after not racing as a 2-year-old.

"I don't buy into the Apollo Curse or whatever at all, mainly because Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher have got the horses,'' four-time Derby-winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. "Todd's going to have his [horse] ready, and Baffert is going to have his.''

Justify is 3-0 in his brief career, winning by a combined 20 lengths. Magnum Moon is 4-0, winning the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes in his last two starts.

"It's one of the toughest Derbies I've ever seen,'' Baffert said. "All the important horses got good draws.''

More history is working against Mendelssohn. A horse coming from Europe has never won America's greatest race. Trained by Irishman Aidan O'Brien, UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn is the 5-1 second choice. He drew the No. 14 post.

Pletcher has a leading four horses in the field: Magnum Moon, 8-1 Audible, 12-1 Vino Rosso and 30-1 Noble Indy. Pletcher surpassed his mentor, Lukas, this year as the trainer with the most starters in Derby history with 52.

The main starting gate holds 14 horses and a six-stall auxiliary gate is attached. Horses are loaded into the gate two at a time, beginning with posts one and 11, which spend the most time waiting for the start.

"Having three of the four horses in the auxiliary gate wasn't what we were hoping for,'' Pletcher said. "Sometimes you can work out good trips from out there. We've got four terrific riders.''

The co-fourth choices are 8-1: Audible and Bolt d'Oro.

Bolt d'Oro has won four of six career starts for trainer and owner Mick Ruis. The colt drew the No. 11 post, which means he will be waiting the longest for the gate to open. Firenze Fire drew the dreaded No. 1 post and also will be standing the longest.

"We're good,'' Ruis said. "Bolt is so well-minded that he doesn't work himself up.''

Baffert's other entry, 30-1 shot Solomini, drew the No. 17 post, which has never produced a Derby winner.

Lukas, the 82-year-old Hall of Famer, has his 49th Derby starter in Bravazo. The colt is one of five 50-1 shots in the field. In that group is Lone Sailor, owned by Gayle Benson, the widow of the New Orleans Saints owner Tom Benson.

Seven horses were listed at 30-1 by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia: Free Drop Billy, Promises Fulfilled, Flameaway, My Boy Jack, Enticed, Solomini and Noble Indy.

The Desormeaux brothers have teamed with My Boy Jack. Kent Desormeaux, a three-time Derby winner, will ride, while Keith Desormeaux does the training.

The field is limited to the top 20 horses based on points earned in designated prep races.

Twenty-one horses were entered. The 21st horse on the points list is Blended Citizen, who would need a defection by early Friday morning to get into the 144th edition of the race.

If all 20 horses start, the total purse would be $2,192,000. The winner earns $1,432,000. Post time is 6:46 p.m. ET.

 

[thrillhammer 683]

i've got my picks narrowed down to audible, justify, good magic, and bolt d'oro.

[po elvis 2070]

not going to try and pick a winner. will bet on there being a really fast pace and box accordingly.

[4th and 5 4914]

Will be on the first turn, gonna be a hell of a race.

I like Justify, Mendelssohn, Good Magic and Audible. I feel like Bolt d'Oro's gonna be in there somewhere, great jockey too, but he recently lost to Justified. Longershots: Hof and My Boy Jack.

I'll have some boxes with the 2 or 3 favorites and one longshot. 

It's a strong field!

[4th and 5 4914]

https://racingdudes.com/2018-kentucky-derby-pace-thesis-picks/

Worth reading twice

 

 

[po elvis 2070]

On 5/2/2018 at 11:40 AM, po elvis said:

not going to try and pick a winner. will bet on there being a really fast pace and box accordingly.

well that didn't last long. i have picked my horse. going all-in on Enticed. please go off at 30/1.

[IPoopOnWhoop 104]

15 hours ago, po elvis said:

well that didn't last long. i have picked my horse. going all-in on Enticed. please go off at 30/1.

Well his current odds are 50-1, so the early money is definitely not favoring him.  Justify is up to 7/2, Mendelssohn 6/1, Magnum Moon 12/1, and the biggest early mover is My Boy Jack going from 30/1 morning line to 5-1 2nd choice.  Of course all this will change drastically but it is fun to look at right now.  I’m pretty settled on Mendelssohn as my pick, but I really want to see Rayya in the Oaks first.

[BigOrange1 6432]

magnum moon is my pick.  he drifts out down the stretch which scares the shit out of me but i just love his talent so i'll just hope that his trainer get's that fixed going in to the biggest race of his life.

also like vino rosso to get a piece of the superfecta. 

[burntorangebongos 10710]

I like Magnum Moon too but his post position seems really shitty. Bolt D'Oro and My Boy Jack are also up there.

Audible out of all the good horses not named Justify has a nice post position. I"ll keep my eye on that horse.

[Longhornanth 13]

Like vino, good magic, flame away, and my boy jack to fill out some tris and supers and win bets 

[Teddyballgame 441]

I think Justify and Mendelssohn are the most talented and either could romp today....but they both have some strong reasons they could finish completely out of the money.   What happens if Justify misses the break just a bit.   How will he handle dirt in his face... Mendelssohn had everything his own way in the uae and a conveyor belt of a track that day....

Again, either could romp, they are that talented but have some strong reasons to take a stand against...  I will be playing them keyed to win in some trifectas, but most of my money will be keyed around Audible and Good magic...here are some of my bets so far

$1 5/6 over  5/6  over all

$10 exata box 16/11

$5 exacta box 6/9

 

$1 tri 14 over 8,9,10,16,18 over 5,6,11,16

most of my pick 3/4 bets will have Justify singled 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2018 by Teddyballgame

[Armybrat 40814]

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5792]

On 5/2/2018 at 4:20 PM, 4th and 5 said:

Will be on the first turn, gonna be a hell of a race.

I like Justify, Mendelssohn, Good Magic and Audible. I feel like Bolt d'Oro's gonna be in there somewhere, great jockey too, but he recently lost to Justified. Longershots: Hof and My Boy Jack.

I'll have some boxes with the 2 or 3 favorites and one longshot. 

It's a strong field!

 

Yeah I think there's good value on Hof, Bolt, and Good Magic for exotics. 

 

What a field, and big question marks on what appears to be the two strongest shots at winning in Justify and Mendelssohn.... 

[po elvis 2070]

Derby is always a bitch to pick. This might be the hardest ever. unbelievable. I just can't waste the opportunity on horses that are less than double digit odds. Rarely do you get these kind of odds on horses that actually can win if the race sets up for them. Even somebody like Combatant at 76-1 can win this thing if the pace is especially fast. Don't like his far outside post, but if he is able to lag behind and get to the rail early, why not? Definitely like him in the exotics. Solomini is similar at 65-1. Could run late at a fast pace and trainer is Bob Baffert. Enticed is at 54-1. He has been the favorite 3 of his last 4 races. Last race he chased a fast pace and still came in second after being bumped a couple times pretty soundly. Race before that was a great race where he showed his closing ability just sitting off the pace. I think he needs to sit a little further back off the pace in this race to have a chance.

But at these odds, i am willing to take a little chance.

[Teddyballgame 441]

Track is now sealed muddy.    Watch for front runners

 

also lone sailor becomes a great long shot to hit the board. Currently at 28-1

Edited May 5, 2018 by Teddyballgame

[SKA the boss 729]

I threw out Justify and Mendelssohn. If they are as good as many think, well, good for them. Better odds on some really quality horses in a race that is one of the hardest to handicap in forever.

I'm down on a five horse $2 exacta box and $1 tri box with

Audible - Good Magic - Magnum Moon - Bolt D'Oro - Vino Rosso

[cafe society 2860]

My Boy Jack, Bolt D'oro, Vino Rosso, Justify, Combatant.

[Landomatic 3813]

Justify.  He’s big.

[El Diablo 4232]

Bolt D'oro, Vino Rosso, Justify, Lone Sailor - If I were a betting man I'd tri box these guys.

[ocugolf 1214]

I boxed a $1 superfecta of Justified, My Boy Jack, Good Magic, and Magnum Moon. 

[Nicole44 22055]

For some reason I really like Flame Away. Hubby is going with Lone Sailor. Baffert looked a little less confident when the interviewed him just now...track conditions...said needed a clean start and most riders will go for the rail. 

[BigDHornfan 6545]

Calling an Audible to win.

[skipperj 377]

2 minutes ago, BigDHornfan said:

Calling an Audible to win.

Thanks, Tara.

[El Diablo 4232]

Anyone here use the Twin Spires website they're plugging?

[skipperj 377]

I tried, not legal in Texas. 30 other states, yes.

[El Diablo 4232]

Wine cooler snocones to go are legal but horse betting is frowned on? Fuckers.

[BigDHornfan 6545]

My trifecta box.

Bolt D'oro, Vino Rosso, Justify, Audible.

[El Diablo 4232]

Makes no sense to me. You can go to a horse track so what's the difference?

[skipperj 377]

4 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

Makes no sense to me. You can go to a horse track so what's the difference?

Texas, baby,

[DoobieWah 1431]

4 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

Makes no sense to me. You can go to a horse track so what's the difference?

Racing industry wants to make sure you DO go to the track.

[El Diablo 4232]

I'm pumped, got a feeling this is going to be epic.

[spystud13 2371]

Damn good run. 

[Jive Turkey 12592]

Damn near effortless for Justify. 

[Horny Bull 2759]

Not even close

[El Diablo 4232]

Fast start and just strolled to the hole.

[Dewey 3286]

Looked like he had another gear left in him

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[Mapache 1117]

Damn, Mendelsshon must've really hated the mud, dead last by 73 links. Fortunately I put 50 bucks on Justify to win a minute before the race started. Front runners that break from the inside and stay out of the mud is usually good play. Justify didn't even have a speck of mud on his face while all  the rest of the ponys where covered from head to toe.

Edited May 5, 2018 by Mapache

[cafe society 2860]

Pure dominance.

[Teddyballgame 441]

Argh....hit the the tri to make my money back but outsmarted myselfand missed a big payday.  Should have had the super.    Oh well on to the next one

[IPoopOnWhoop 104]

Lost on the derby, won a little at the casino so not a horrible day.  Good race from Justify, looking forward to the Preakness.

[4th and 5 4914]

At Churchill Downs 

I had 5,6,7

i also had 5,6,7,10 and 5,6,7,11 and 5,6,7,14

ome Regard away from a 5 figure payday ....