Sagarin: Texas had the # 4 strength of schedule

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,345]

Good stuff here:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm


Big 12 had nine teams in the top 20 hardest schedules, with five teams in the top 10.

What's hilarious is that A&M played five top 10 teams and the little sisters of the poor on their schedule dragged them down to #17 SOS. 

It's clear that the current system incentivizes playing weak teams.  

I'm too lazy to look it up, but it sure seems like Herman has played a shit ton of strong teams since he's been here.

 

[SA-KC_Horn 1,295]

This definitely needs to be flown on the banner.

[0xdeadbeef 1,627]

So a schedule that plays teams that finished with these rankings:

#1, #4, #7, #25    

is a harder schedule than one that plays teams that finished with these rankings.

#1, #3, #5, #12, #13   

Right.

Stupid algorithm is Stupid.

 

 

[Huckleberry 32,710]

2 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

So a schedule that plays teams that finished with these rankings:

#1, #4, #7, #25    

is a harder schedule than one that plays teams that finished with these rankings.

#1, #3, #5, #12, #13   

Right.

Stupid algorithm is Stupid.

 

 

What schedule are you talking about? Who played Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and Notre Dame?

[TheFlyingBoat 906]

3 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

So a schedule that plays teams that finished with these rankings:

#1, #4, #7, #25    

is a harder schedule than one that plays teams that finished with these rankings.

#1, #3, #5, #12, #13   

Right.

Stupid algorithm is Stupid.

 

 

Would you care to keep going down that list? I think there's more than 5 teams played by both teams 
 

[ButtFumble 5,159]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

What schedule are you talking about? Who played Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and Notre Dame?

they are one of those types that likes to talk about the rankings of a team when they played them vs what the team was at the end of the season

or worse yet they like to talk about where their team was ranked at some point in the season before the end of the year (meltdown)

"""'damn we are so amazing we played the #1, #5, and #6 teams in the country and we were #7!!!!"""""

but at the end of the year after those teams all lose 4 games you played the #25, #27, #33 teams in the country and ended the season ranked #39.....but they still want to bitch about being ranked #39 because their losses were to the #1, #5, and #6 teams on the country

[USNALonghorn 5,024]

12 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

So a schedule that plays teams that finished with these rankings:

#1, #4, #7, #25    

is a harder schedule than one that plays teams that finished with these rankings.

#1, #3, #5, #12, #13   

Right.

Stupid algorithm is Stupid.

 

 

Do you even SEC preseason rank inflate, bro?

[Hornius Emeritus 12,424]

24 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

So a schedule that plays teams that finished with these rankings:

#1, #4, #7, #25    

is a harder schedule than one that plays teams that finished with these rankings.

#1, #3, #5, #12, #13   

Right.

Stupid algorithm is Stupid.

 

 

 

This was an exceedingly stupid post. 

[C-Man 27,075]

42 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

So a schedule that plays teams that finished with these rankings:

#1, #4, #7, #25    

is a harder schedule than one that plays teams that finished with these rankings.

#1, #3, #5, #12, #13   

Right.

Stupid algorithm is Stupid.

 

 

TEXAS

• La Tech #89
• LSU #4
• @ Rice #144 
• Oklahoma St #22
• @ West Virginia #55
• Oklahoma #5
• Kansas #87
• @ TCU #33
• Kansas St #24
• @ Iowa St #23
• @ Baylor #15
• Texas Tech #50

TEXUM aggy

• Texas St #150
• @ Clemson #2
• Lamar #225 
• Auburn #10
• @ Arkansas #114
• Alabama #3
• @ Ole Miss #56
• Mississippi St #39
• UTSA #157
• South Carolina #51
• @ Georgia #6
• @ LSU #4

Edited December 9, 2019 by C-Man

[hornhorn 100]

1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

So a schedule that plays teams that finished with these rankings:

#1, #4, #7, #25    

is a harder schedule than one that plays teams that finished with these rankings.

#1, #3, #5, #12, #13   

Right.

Stupid algorithm is Stupid.

 

 

SOS is all he has at aggy. Can't you guys let him have even that?

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

9 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

Can't you guys let him have even that?

No. Next question?

[hornhorn 100]

Just now, Walden Ponderer said:

No. Next question?

Then this huge move to the SEC is going to mean nothing. 

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

3 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

Then this huge move to the SEC is going to mean nothing. 

It'll be worth it to 'em if they get a Waffle House.

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

WTF Sagarin? You can't penalize a team for taking much needed breathers during the middle of the toughest conference schedule in major college football. That schedule is so tough that by the time the bowls come around. none of them want to be there. 

[smwhorn 481]

Serious question.

This year, if we had played @ Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, @ Georgia, and @ LSU, what's our record for those five games?

[irishtexan 11,445]

5 minutes ago, smwhorn said:

Serious question.

This year, if we had played @ Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, @ Georgia, and @ LSU, what's our record for those five games?

0-5 but 4-1 if you count moral victories. 

That's how that works, right Aggy?

[msucolt45 4,011]

2-3, played LSU so we did lose.

We beat both Auburn and Georgia with your hypothetical schedule. Because of that, the Horns team that played the LSU game (prior to OU sucks) is the team that wins those two.

The other two loses aren’t by much.

[smwhorn 481]

1 minute ago, irishtexan said:

0-5 but 4-1 if you count moral victories. 

That's how that works, right Aggy?

Not an Aggy.  Just wondering if we would have been more competitive than the Gomers.  We did against LSU but were at home.

I think we would have been in those games more than the ags, but who knows. 

[Deej 76,584]

12 minutes ago, smwhorn said:

Serious question.

This year, if we had played @ Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, @ Georgia, and @ LSU, what's our record for those five games?

No worse than aggy.

[irishtexan 11,445]

3 minutes ago, smwhorn said:

Not an Aggy.  Just wondering if we would have been more competitive than the Gomers.  We did against LSU but were at home.

I think we would have been in those games more than the ags, but who knows. 

I was questioning the royal aggy.

We sucked balls this year. We would have likely got smoked in all 5 games. At least we can admit that instead of wishcasting our way to a 3-2 record that was never gonna happen.

[TKthunder2 4,981]

52 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

I was questioning the royal aggy.

We sucked balls this year. We would have likely got smoked in all 5 games. At least we can admit that instead of wishcasting our way to a 3-2 record that was never gonna happen.

Despite what ESPN’s graphics department would have you believe, Texas beat Georgia this year.

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

1 hour ago, Deej said:

No worse than aggy.

[0xdeadbeef 1,627]

Ha. I just logged back in and look at all the crap I'm taking.  

nobody here is stupid enough to think we had the 4th toughest schedule in the country, or that had the 20th best team in the country, right?    Cause that's where Sagarin has us listed?  Sagarin is worthless and always has been.  His strength of schedule is trash.    

Call a spade a spade. Aggy did play more top 25 teams (based on the CFP rankings) than us... and as expected, they lost every one of them.

 

[CfRhTxStBobcats 600]

4 hours ago, smwhorn said:

Serious question.

This year, if we had played @ Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, @ Georgia, and @ LSU, what's our record for those five games?

Eh, if we played Auburn, Bama, or Georgia the 2nd game of the year instead of LSU, might have pulled 1 out.

[CfRhTxStBobcats 600]

4 hours ago, irishtexan said:

I was questioning the royal aggy.

We sucked balls this year. We would have likely got smoked in all 5 games. At least we can admit that instead of wishcasting our way to a 3-2 record that was never gonna happen.

Best I remember we played one of those teams and didn't get smoked. Now if that game was to be played again, yeah, it would be ugly.

[USNALonghorn 5,024]

7 hours ago, irishtexan said:

I was questioning the royal aggy.

We sucked balls this year. We would have likely got smoked in all 5 games. At least we can admit that instead of wishcasting our way to a 3-2 record that was never gonna happen.

Wishcasting? The best team in that lineup only beat us by a TD, and needed the cramp defense.

[TheFlyingBoat 906]

5 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Ha. I just logged back in and look at all the crap I'm taking.  

nobody here is stupid enough to think we had the 4th toughest schedule in the country, or that had the 20th best team in the country, right?    Cause that's where Sagarin has us listed?  Sagarin is worthless and always has been.  His strength of schedule is trash.    

Call a spade a spade. Aggy did play more top 25 teams (based on the CFP rankings) than us... and as expected, they lost every one of them.

 

Sagarin is among the better predictors: http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=18

 

They took 2nd straight up in the most recent full season. S&P+ has us at 9 when you apply Fremeau's implied loss calculation for an average team. Aggy is at 27 or something like that. Playing a ton of top 35 teams creates a hard schedule. I think 10 are within the top 55 of S&P+ and like 8 in the top 35 or something like that. Aggy played a very top heavy schedule and aggy lost the games they should have lost and then proceeded to play poorly against bottom feeders like Arkansas. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

7 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Ha. I just logged back in and look at all the crap I'm taking.  

nobody here is stupid enough to think we had the 4th toughest schedule in the country, or that had the 20th best team in the country, right?    Cause that's where Sagarin has us listed?  Sagarin is worthless and always has been.  His strength of schedule is trash.    

Call a spade a spade. Aggy did play more top 25 teams (based on the CFP rankings) than us... and as expected, they lost every one of them.

 

I believe what everyone is trying to say is that you’re either failing to take into account the bias in rankings, much more trash than Sagarin, which are really based off preseason hype or you believe the hype. 

[Huckleberry 32,710]

9 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Ha. I just logged back in and look at all the crap I'm taking.  

nobody here is stupid enough to think we had the 4th toughest schedule in the country, or that had the 20th best team in the country, right?    Cause that's where Sagarin has us listed?  Sagarin is worthless and always has been.  His strength of schedule is trash.    

Call a spade a spade. Aggy did play more top 25 teams (based on the CFP rankings) than us... and as expected, they lost every one of them.

 

A&M also played more non top-100 teams. The issue is that you have no idea what each rating set is attempting to explain, so you're clueless as to their meaning. Most rating systems have Texas in the 20s. Most rating systems have Texas with a very difficult Top 15 schedule. Depending on what you're trying to calculate, it's extremely easy to see Texas as having the #4 schedule in the country.

A&M's schedule was harder to go 11-1 against than Texas's schedule. However, it was much easier to go 7-5 against than Texas's schedule. Let's take the Massey composite as a starting point as it combines as many systems as possible:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

A&M played the #120, #225 (Lamar - they are #225 in both Massey and Sagarin who include FCS teams), #76, #73, #121, #67 teams. Those were 6 of their 7 wins. Their only win against a team that is rated in the top half of FBS football teams was over #42 Mississippi State. 

Texas beat #27 and #29.  The key in comparing these schedules is the games against good but not great teams. Texas played 4 games against teams from #15-#30. A&M played zero of these competitive games (for a team as good as they are). A&M played nobody from #13-#41. Their schedule doesn't really tell you anything about them.

Meanwhile, Texas went 2-2 against teams that were between #15 and #30. They also had one bad loss  (#49 TCU). Their other losses were to #2 and #4. That looks exactly like the result set of a team that is in the 20s.

Your incredulity reflects more on you than on Sagarin's ratings.

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

I think the SECs scheduling is an absolute scam, but who cares if aggys 2019 SOS is better or worse than ours?  It’s not like one or the other got left out of the playoff. Both trams are one win over .500.  If Texas did that against superior competition, great.   First seat on the short bus.  

[Hiphopopotamos 20,865]

10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

A&M also played more non top-100 teams. The issue is that you have no idea what each rating set is attempting to explain, so you're clueless as to their meaning. Most rating systems have Texas in the 20s. Most rating systems have Texas with a very difficult Top 15 schedule. Depending on what you're trying to calculate, it's extremely easy to see Texas as having the #4 schedule in the country.

A&M's schedule was harder to go 11-1 against than Texas's schedule. However, it was much easier to go 7-5 against than Texas's schedule. Let's take the Massey composite as a starting point as it combines as many systems as possible:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

A&M played the #120, #225 (Lamar - they are #225 in both Massey and Sagarin who include FCS teams), #76, #73, #121, #67 teams. Those were 6 of their 7 wins. Their only win against a team that is rated in the top half of FBS football teams was over #42 Mississippi State. 

Texas beat #27 and #29.  The key in comparing these schedules is the games against good but not great teams. Texas played 4 games against teams from #15-#30. A&M played zero of these competitive games (for a team as good as they are). A&M played nobody from #13-#41. Their schedule doesn't really tell you anything about them.

Meanwhile, Texas went 2-2 against teams that were between #15 and #30. They also had one bad loss  (#49 TCU). Their other losses were to #2 and #4. That looks exactly like the result set of a team that is in the 20s.

Your incredulity reflects more on you than on Sagarin's ratings.

Huckleberry'd

[irishtexan 11,445]

7 hours ago, USNALonghorn said:

Wishcasting? The best team in that lineup only beat us by a TD, and needed the cramp defense.

We also needed a last-second field goal to beat Kansas at home. When healthy, confident, and coached well we have the talent to play with anyone. But we're neither healthy nor confident and we just fired pretty much the entire staff for incompetence. This ain't the same team that lost to LSU and even OU by one touchdown.

[B00M 6,280]

Holy shit Arkansas fucking sucks

[Cajun 11,675]

15 hours ago, smwhorn said:

Not an Aggy.  Just wondering if we would have been more competitive than the Gomers.  We did against LSU but were at home.

I think we would have been in those games more than the ags, but who knows. 

Look at the box score for Texas vs LSU (common opponent).

Now, look at the box score for LSU vs aggy.

There's your answer.

[Scholz 11,937]

Not a single one of the 7 teams aggy beat had a winning record including the 3 high school teams they schedule every year.  Their OOC schedule is so, so pussy.  Even more pussy next year.  The ONLY reason they won 7.  There's your common sense comparison.

[dcar00 14,036]

16 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

We also needed a last-second field goal to beat Kansas at home. When healthy, confident, and coached well we have the talent to play with anyone. But we're neither healthy nor confident and we just fired pretty much the entire staff for incompetence. This ain't the same team that lost to LSU and even OU by one touchdown.

I agree we are worse now and that herman sucks and he will be gone in 2 years but Iowa state needed a last second FG to beat us.  the one possession games kind of evened out over the season.

yes I know it sucks that we almost lost to Kansas and got beat by ISU.  obligatory "NOS".

 

[irishtexan 11,445]

Are y'all really moral victory'ing this strength of schedule bullshit by saying that our 7-5 season is better than their 7-5 season? We shit the bed this year. They shit the bed this year. Have fun comparing turds, guys!

[Huckleberry 32,710]

Nobody is taking any moral victories out of anything you whiners. We are talking about football. Get over it.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,783]

Texas 7-5, we suck we're doomed fire everybody

aggy 7-5, we had the toughest schedule in the history of football, we're the greatest 7-5 team ever next year next year next year

[Your Mom 4,797]

16 hours ago, smwhorn said:

Serious question.

This year, if we had played @ Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, @ Georgia, and @ LSU, what's our record for those five games?

Apparently the same as if we played LSU, OU, TCU, Iowa St, and Baylor.

[Scholz 11,937]

Don't follow the aggy mindset of bragging about who you lost to.  That's for abject losers.  Who'd you beat?

[Cajun 11,675]

12 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Texas 7-5, we suck we're doomed fire everybody

aggy 7-5, we had the toughest schedule in the history of football, we're the greatest 7-5 team ever next year next year next year

Spot. The. Fuck. On

One thing that aggy is consistent at - low expectations

[JBJ 3,649]

Sagarin's SOS is power needed to achieve a 6-6 schedule. 

When you play 5 cupcakes it won't take much to get that other win.

When you play 6 top 30 teams, it takes a whole lot more.

A&Ms schedule this year was the hardest in the nation to go undefeated with.  This is the more popular metric because it is better at distinguishing between teams who were close to or finished undefeated - which is what most fans want.

 

SOR is a better metric all around.  Especially when comparing teams with the same record.  But there's several different ways to go about that as well.

Edited December 10, 2019 by JBJ

[El Hornarino 371]

Would like to see some analysis of performance for this team home and away, or perhaps even looking for deterioration purely by weeks played.

My impression was the offense was better at home, and I thought we tended to play better defenses away.  But taking a quick look at Adjusted Stats and FEI looks like this:

Adjusted PPG Rank, D FEI Rank (Wk14)

L Tech - 88, 58

LSU - 15, 20

OSU - 32, 56

Kansas - 83, 108

KSU - 17, 25

T Tech - 66, 83

Home Avg Def - 50.2, 58.3

-

Rice - 70, 88

WVU - 48, 76

OU - 24, 70

TCU - 29, 26

ISU - 23, 40

Baylor - 10, 8

Away/Neutral Avg Def - 34, 51.3

--

Averaging them might not have been the best thing to do.  But interesting that FEI worked out somewhat similarly, I didn't expect that from the "eye" test.  Maybe should have went for PPPs.  It still seems to rank some teams fairly differently from FEI though.

 

[JBJ 3,649]

Our worst defense was played between the bye weeks.  Giving up 'only' 34/517 to OU was the exception to that, but it still didn't rank well in DFEI.

We finished the season pretty strong, but the offense struggling down the stretch masks that.

Edited December 10, 2019 by JBJ

['stache 21,778]

OKST was 11th in SOS with Oregon State, McNeese, and Tulsa as our non-con. Tells you how strong the Big 12 was overall, and how the 4th cupcake really kills SEC schools. Although aggy only played 3 cupcakes and are still lower than us in SOS. Outside the 5 top ten teams they lost too, their schedule was utter shit, apparently.

Edited December 10, 2019 by 'stache

[Hornius Emeritus 12,424]

1 hour ago, irishtexan said:

Are y'all really moral victory'ing this strength of schedule bullshit by saying that our 7-5 season is better than their 7-5 season? We shit the bed this year. They shit the bed this year. Have fun comparing turds, guys!

Good Lord ...  Nobody is moral victory'ing anything.

I read posts like this and wonder how ostensibly educated folks could have this as their takeaway from this thread.

[BigHorn'13 3,356]

7 hours ago, irishtexan said:

Are y'all really moral victory'ing this strength of schedule bullshit by saying that our 7-5 season is better than their 7-5 season? We shit the bed this year. They shit the bed this year. Have fun comparing turds, guys!

If you can't see the comedic value in all of this, that's on you. Everything fucking sucks on our side right now but out comes this sos that says we had a tougher schedule than our regarded neighbors. 

This gave me a good laugh yesterday

[po elvis 2,070]

10 minutes ago, BigHorn'13 said:

If you can't see the comedic value in all of this, that's on you. Everything fucking sucks on our side right now but out comes this sos that says we had a tougher schedule than our regarded neighbors. 

This gave me a good laugh yesterday

the 5 or so other SOS models i looked at also have us with a tougher SOS than aggy.

Edited December 10, 2019 by po elvis

[oldhorn2 430]

7 hours ago, Scholz said:

Don't follow the aggy mindset of bragging about who you lost to.  That's for abject losers.  Who'd you beat?

^^^^^^^^

Yep....bullseye