Have Humans Ever Been Close to Extinction?

[Mileslong 4728]

Apparently three times according to David Hickey, former Retired Professor of Paleobiology and Geology (1975-2019)

 

Yes, three times. Both ancient events were super volcanoes. The first time of which we are aware was 72 thousand years ago when the super volcano Toba in Java, Indonesia, erupted. The second eruption occurred 39k years ago where Naples, Italy is now located. These conclusions are based on genetic variation data. The second of these eruptions probably had its greatest effect in Europe. It apparently resulted in regional extinctions of both the resident human culture and that of neanderthals. Those replacing them were from a different culture.

 

About 70k years ago the Mt.Toba eruption was larger than that of the later in Naples and apparently had world-wide consequences. Geneticists estimate population size in Africa to have been between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding pairs. There were several other species of human present in Eurasia at this time—H. neanderthalensis, H. sapiens, H. denisova, two as yet unnamed species descended from H. denisova; one in India and and another in SE China; H. floresiensis and the newly described, also diminutive, H. luzonensis from the Philippines.

 

The third event was in my lifetime, and was very up-close and personal: The Cuban Missile Crisis, October 1962. I had lived next to OHare Airport, which was a military base at the time. So I was sitting at one of the many ‘ground zeros’ of the time, and our fates were entirely in the hands of President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Khrushchev. There were subsequent nuclear weapons accidents and close-calls, but this was a true crisis during a time when both the U.S. and Soviets policy was Mutually Assured Destruction.

 

“Who We Are and How We Got Here” 2018, by David Reich

 

 

.

 

[Upgrayedd 5821]

Cuban Missile Crisis?  JFC you’re old.

we should ask @Armybrat about the others. 

[workswithseed 2119]

1 minute ago, Upgrayedd said:

Cuban Missile Crisis?  JFC you’re old.

we should ask @Armybrat about the others. 

He'll tell about this crazy dude and his damned boat.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Damn, I was born during the Cuban Missile crisis.  To Think what could have never happened.

[Armybrat 40920]

Meh, Nikita wasn’t about to get his homeland vaporized over 3rd world shithole Cuber.

[Guest Lobo]

And do you know the name of the man that re-populated Italy all those millennia ago?

Army fucking brat.  

[Parliament 14335]

I'm sure there were a few comets that came closer to killing Humanity than any nuclear crisis ever did.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, Parliament said:

I'm sure there were a few comets that came closer to killing Humanity than any nuclear crisis ever did.

Shit, disco was more a threat.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I'm sure there were a few comets that came closer to killing Humanity than any nuclear crisis ever did.

You’d be wrong...

 

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станисла́в Евгра́фович Петро́в; 7 September 1939 – 19 May 2017) was a lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defence Forces who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident. On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm,^[1] and his decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol,^[2] is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in large-scale nuclear war. Investigation later confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned.^[3]

 

[Hate 20146]

24 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I'm sure there were a few comets that came closer to killing Humanity than any nuclear crisis ever did.

The last true extinction impact was the one that got the dinosaurs.  There have been several impact events since, but none that would be truly catastrophic to life on Earth.  The last impact of a "large" asteroid was in 1947 and it landed in Russia.  It would take a "dinosaur killer" size asteroid to cause an extinction event, and even then we would see it coming and be able to prepare. 

[Armybrat 40920]

Yep, hookers, blow, and kiss my ass goodbye.

[Surly Bevo 25178]

I dropped an ELE on OP's mom last night

[Mileslong 4728]

Cuban Missile Crisis?  JFC you’re old.
we should ask [mention=1205]Armybrat[/mention] about the others. 

Those weren’t my words, that was the author of the article...

[Fudge Nuggets 19227]

On 12/19/2019 at 8:44 PM, Doc Reeves said:

Investigation later confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned.^[3]

The fact that Moscow wasn't turned into a glass parking lot could have told them that much.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

On 12/19/2019 at 9:01 PM, Hate said:

The last true extinction impact was the one that got the dinosaurs.  There have been several impact events since, but none that would be truly catastrophic to life on Earth.  The last impact of a "large" asteroid was in 1947 and it landed in Russia.  It would take a "dinosaur killer" size asteroid to cause an extinction event, and even then we would see it coming and be able to prepare. 

I was told we only track two percent of the sky

[SuperSport 1333]

On 12/19/2019 at 8:44 PM, Doc Reeves said:

You’d be wrong...

 

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станисла́в Евгра́фович Петро́в; 7 September 1939 – 19 May 2017) was a lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defence Forces who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident. On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm,^[1] and his decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol,^[2] is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in large-scale nuclear war. Investigation later confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned.^[3]

 

Huh, never realized WarGames was a documentary.

[Rougarou 594]

I read the title as "have humans ever been *this* close to extinction?"

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

I was told we only track two percent of the sky

And it's a pretty big damn sky

Edited December 23, 2019 by Onboard 2.0

[NeverMarryAStripper 21943]

41 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

I read the title as "have humans ever been *this* close to extinction?"

Based on the shit posted on Surly, I'm thinking we're pretty damn close.

[Hate 20146]

2 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

I was told we only track two percent of the sky

Since 1998, the United States, the European Union, and other nations are scanning for NEOs in an effort called Spaceguard.^[8] The initial US Congress mandate to NASA of cataloging at least 90% of NEOs that are at least 1 kilometre (0.62 mi) in diameter, which could cause a global catastrophe, had been met by 2011.^[9] In later years, the survey effort has been expanded^[10] to smaller objects^[11] having the potential for large-scale, though not global, damage.

 

That's from Wiki, but I haven't been able to locate an updated number.  I would assume that 90% eight years ago has only grown, but I don't know that for sure. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

We have to be able to see them to track them, and you can't see shit from earth unless you are on the dark side of the planet, so until we launch a telescope toward the sun facing the earth, the best we can hope for is 50%.

[Brisketexan 105440]

5 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

We have to be able to see them to track them, and you can't see shit from earth unless you are on the dark side of the planet, so until we launch a telescope toward the sun facing the earth, the best we can hope for is 50%.

You, ummm, are aware that we travel AROUND the sun, right?  Like each year....for exactly a year?  So, if you want to see what's out in space from the perspective of the other side of the sun....all you need to do is wait till June.

Also, in terms of being close to extinction, I think we're just 2-3 more major innovations in sex-bot technology away from that.  

[NeverMarryAStripper 21943]

We have to be able to see them to track them, and you can't see shit from earth unless you are on the dark side of the planet, so until we launch a telescope toward the sun facing the earth, the best we can hope for is 50%.

[SimonBolivar 10960]

On 12/19/2019 at 7:47 PM, Armybrat said:

Meh, Nikita wasn’t about to get his homeland vaporized over 3rd world shithole Cuber.

There were already tactical nukes that were operational and the local commanders wouldn't have needed Moscow's permission to use them. Castro was all for using them if there was an invasion too.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

LOL good one, y'all need to tell NASA how it works then.

 

https://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/nasa-to-build-asteroid-telescope.html

NASA to Build New Asteroid-Hunting Space Telescope

NASA is boosting its efforts to defend Earth from potentially dangerous asteroids. The agency announced Monday that it plans to build and launch an asteroid-hunting space telescope as soon as 2024 as part of a new, multi-pronged approach to planetary defense. The yet-to-be-named telescope will use an infrared detector to pick up the heat signatures of small near-Earth asteroids against the cold backdrop of space. 

A NASA presentation says the telescope will find 90 percent of asteroids wider than 140 meters that have a chance of hitting the Earth within 10 years. This goal responds to a congressional directive set in 2005. Right now only a third of those asteroids are cataloged, and none pose a threat to Earth for the foreseeable future.  However, an impact by one that we haven’t found yet could wreak country-scale destruction and cause more casualties than any natural disaster in recorded history. Even a 50-meter-wide asteroid could destroy a major metropolitan city in the unlikely event of a direct hit; NASA says the telescope will help compute the chances of objects that size hitting Earth within the next 100 years. 

"This may prove to be the most important investment ever made by NASA," said Bill Nye, CEO of The Planetary Society in a press statement. "Early detection and deflection of an asteroid on a collision course for Earth could save countless lives. A space-based asteroid-hunting telescope will better equip the world to be prepared for any potential threats."

The telescope will cost up to $600 million including its launch vehicle. It joins NASA's DART mission under the jurisdiction of the agency's newly formed Planetary Defense Program, which has a budget separate from other planetary science activities. NASA plans to pursue more planetary defense missions in the future and fund proposals for NEO research and technologies to deflect asteroids on course to hit Earth.

"This represents a totally new way of thinking about planetary defense: not just as a ground-based telescope observing program, but as a holistic development program to actively seek out and prepare for potentially threatening NEOs," said Casey Dreier, chief advocate for The Planetary Society.  "For too long this effort has limped along with less funding than NASA's public relations office. After years of modest growth, NASA is now committing to an ongoing investment in spacecraft and research that will help ensure the long-term safety of the human race."

The proposed space-based asteroid survey telescope won’t be NASA’s first. The agency’s current space-based asteroid hunter, NEOWISE, has made more than 800,000 infrared observations of approximately 34,000 different solar system objects. It was originally designed for astrophysics research, and launched in 2009 as the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) on a mission to scan the sky for luminous galaxies and cool, nearby stars. After the telescope’s supply of frozen hydrogen used to chill its two longest-wavelength infrared detectors ran out in 2010, it was placed into hibernation before being repurposed as an asteroid hunting mission using only its two shorter-wavelength detectors in 2013.

Now, NEOWISE's mission is nearly over. By next summer, the spacecraft's orbit around Earth is expected to drift to the point where it will be unable to hunt for asteroids without sunlight or reflected Earthshine entering the telescope.

The new asteroid-hunting telescope is based on a NEOWISE successor called NEOCam, which  received initial study funding from NASA in 2017. The telescope would have a 50-centimeter aperture and be stationed at the Sun-Earth L1 point, a gravitationally stable spot between the Sun and Earth. From there, the telescope will look away from the Sun, towards Earth, searching for asteroids in front of and behind our planet’s orbit as it travels around the Sun. This region of space is difficult to search with ground-based telescopes due to the Sun’s glare. 

"The first step to protecting humanity from impact is to find the dangerous asteroids," said Bruce Betts, chief scientist for The Planetary Society. "To better accomplish this, the planetary defense community has long wanted a dedicated space-based infrared survey telescope to find, characterize, and track near-Earth objects. It's great to see NASA committing to finally make this a reality."

Planetary defense is one of The Planetary Society's top policy and project priorities. Since 1997, the Society's Shoemaker NEO Grant Program has spent nearly $400,000 to help amateur and professional astronomers observe near-Earth objects to determine which pose a threat to our planet. The Society is also an active participant in the biennial Planetary Defense Conference, and has previously funded development of an asteroid deflection technique called Laser Bees.

 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21943]

Key words ground-based

[Armybrat 40920]

28 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

There were already tactical nukes that were operational and the local commanders wouldn't have needed Moscow's permission to use them. Castro was all for using them if there was an invasion too.

We knew where all (about two dozen nukes) of them were deployed thanks to a double agent and the U-2 spy planes. They would have been destroyed by a massive air strike before they knew what hit them prior to any invasion. Moscow would have backed down, as they didn’t want to lose their ass for that tin pot dictator Castro.

But if those nukes were destroyed to begin with, then no invasion would have been necessary. I think Kennedy Would have ordered the first strike.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Armybrat

[NeverMarryAStripper 21943]

On 12/19/2019 at 7:47 PM, Armybrat said:

Meh, Nikita wasn’t about to get his homeland vaporized over 3rd world shithole Cuber.

You should read up on Vasily Arkhipov and the Soviet submarine B-59

[Armybrat 40920]

Yes, and he didn’t, neither did any other rooskies. They were not stupid.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Key words ground-based

Go on... what point are you trying to prove?

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

Since 1998, the United States, the European Union, and other nations are scanning for NEOs in an effort called Spaceguard.^[8] The initial US Congress mandate to NASA of cataloging at least 90% of NEOs that are at least 1 kilometre (0.62 mi) in diameter, which could cause a global catastrophe, had been met by 2011.^[9] In later years, the survey effort has been expanded^[10] to smaller objects^[11] having the potential for large-scale, though not global, damage.

 

That's from Wiki, but I haven't been able to locate an updated number.  I would assume that 90% eight years ago has only grown, but I don't know that for sure. 

[SimonBolivar 10960]

36 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

We knew where all (about two dozen nukes) of them were deployed thanks to a double agent and the U-2 spy planes. They would have been destroyed by a massive air strike before they knew what hit them prior to any invasion. Moscow would have backed down, as they didn’t want to lose their ass for that tin pot dictator Castro.

But if those nukes were destroyed to begin with, then no invasion would have been necessary. I think Kennedy Would have ordered the first strike.

Do you have a reference that the USA new about tactical nukes? Everything I've ever heard is that the US was oblivious to them.

[SimonBolivar 10960]

1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

Do you have a reference that the USA new about tactical nukes? Everything I've ever heard is that the US was oblivious to them.

Knew*

 

Fucking idiot @SimonBolivar

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

8 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Knew*

 

Fucking idiot @SimonBolivar

Well obliviously they were.

[Armybrat 40920]

Well after the “October Crises”  was all said & done and the USSR collapsed 4 decades later, it was revealed that a double agent squealed on the locations of said nukes.

Of course at the time we all knew the rooskies were putting nukes in Cuber, what with short range ballistic missiles. Even a drunken sophomore at UT knew they weren’t going to be tipped with conventional explosives.
Nikita was just countering the Jupiter missiles the US Air Force had installed (with nukes) in Turkey to aim at the USSR.

Then again, after Nikita supposedly “backed down”and pulled those rocket regiments out of Castro’s bailiwick, those Jupiters were quietly removed from Turkey. That “compromise” was not covered on the US media front pages, lest it make JFK look weak.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Armybrat

[!!!HOTDOGS!!! 31]

I think I remember reading about a couple of asteroids that are expected to come close to us in the next decade or so that NASA has already planned missions to explore ahead of time. Gotta go find it I suppose

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

4 hours ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

We have to be able to see them to track them, and you can't see shit from earth unless you are on the dark side of the planet, so until we launch a telescope toward the sun facing the earth, the best we can hope for is 50%.

Damn flat Earth!

[ImissWallyPryor 9046]

11 years and 1 month from now

[Hate 20146]

Big rock zooming by in a couple of days.

https://www.foxnews.com/science/massive-2034-foot-asteroid-will-zoom-past-earth-just-after-christmas

A gigantic asteroid will zip past Earth just after Christmas, NASA reports.

The massive space rock, which is known as 310442 (2000 CH59), will be closest to our planet on December 26 at 2:54 a.m. EST, according to NASA.

The space agency's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) estimates its diameter will be in the range of 919 to 2,034 feet. At the higher end, that means it could be as large as One World Trade Center in New York City, which tops out at 1,792 feet, including the tip.

"Over many centuries and millennia [these asteroids] might evolve into Earth-crossing orbits," Paul Chodas, director of CNEOS), told Newsweek. "So it is prudent to keep tracking [them] for decades to come and to study how their orbits might be evolving."

[bernorange 8366]

According to my Internets research, the worst pandemic in history was the plague of Justinian circa 541 bc and it wiped out half the world's population.

[Parliament 14335]

According to my Internets research, the worst pandemic in history was the plague of Justinian circa 541 bc and it wiped out half the world's population.

You may be joking, but to be clear, you're wrong.

[Hate 20146]

Makes since because just about everyone I've ever met named Justin was an asshole. 

[bernorange 8366]

Wasn't joking, but I goofed on the ad/bc.  The page I read claimed estimates of 100 million dead and half the world's population.  It's not like they kept meticulous records back then, so who knows if it was 25% or 50%.  Either way, it sounds like it was pretty bad.

Edited December 24, 2019 by bernorange

[SimonBolivar 10960]

It would've killed a shit ton and completely destroyed economies and civilizations, but you have to imagine that killing 0 Americans probably keeps it pretty far from killing half of the world's population even with the Americas being relatively small population wise.

Edited December 24, 2019 by SimonBolivar

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4977]

On 12/19/2019 at 8:47 PM, Armybrat said:

Meh, Nikita wasn’t about to get his homeland vaporized over 3rd world shithole Cuber.

Wasn't Cuba by definition a 2nd world country?

[gmr548 16617]

We have to be able to see them to track them, and you can't see shit from earth unless you are on the dark side of the planet, so until we launch a telescope toward the sun facing the earth, the best we can hope for is 50%.

Lol wut

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Lol wut

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

Oh, another one. Did the link not make it clear, or do I need to draw a picture?

[mulletpelini 5216]

On 12/19/2019 at 9:01 PM, Hate said:

It would take a "dinosaur killer" size asteroid to cause an extinction event, and even then we would see it coming and be able to prepare. 

 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21943]

Yes, and he didn’t, neither did any other rooskies. They were not stupid.

Two out of the three officers required to release the nuclear tipped torpedo from the B-59 wanted to launch. I’d say that’s pretty fucking close to an extinction event.

[Armybrat 40920]

7 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Wasn't Cuba by definition a 2nd world country?

Maybe by Castro’s, but not by anyone else.