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World Unrest as we enter the next decade

washparkhorn

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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China - Uighurs

https://theintercept.com/2018/08/13/china-muslims-uighur-detention/

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[A] panel of U.N. human rights experts said Uighurs in Xinjiang were being treated as “enemies of the state” and announced that it had received credible reports about the “arbitrary and mass detention of almost 1 million Uighurs” in “counter-extremism centers.”

One. Million. People. It’s an astonishingly high number.

In the context of the Uighur population as a whole, it’s even more shocking: There are around 11 million Uighurs living in Xinjiang, which means that almost one in 10 of them has been detained, according to the U.N.

How is this not anything other than one of the biggest, and most underreported, human rights crises in the world today?

 

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washparkhorn

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1 minute ago, bernorange said:

Oh, so now you are inclined to entertain the WTO's recent warnings?  Imagine what happens when the world is gripped by a global recession and numerous sovereign currency/debt crises.

I always learn from you bern . . . you know that. Thank you.

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washparkhorn

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The situation as a whole in Latin America:

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UNDER LEFT- AND RIGHT-WING LEADERS, THE AMAZON HAS BURNED. CAN LATIN AMERICA REJECT OIL, RANCHING, AND MINING?

THE CHAPTER IN Latin American history that opened in 1998 with celebrations in Venezuela has ended with a coup and violence in Bolivia. As with all tidal waves, the “pink tide” recedes to reveal a terrain transformed. The left movement landscape that produced variously striped socialist governments in a dozen countries is fractured and disillusioned. Central and South America face a resurgent right and the return of austerity, often through a scrim of tear gas. This state of disarray also marks the continent’s literal terrain: the forests and mountains cleared and ripped open, their minerals and hydrocarbons sent to port and shipped abroad in the name of a socialist project whose achievements have proven fragile, temporary, and superficial.

 

https://theintercept.com/2019/12/07/amazon-latin-america-extractivism/

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washparkhorn

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Venezuela 

Maduro Holds Talks With U.S. Creditors in a Push to End Embargo

President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, dismissed as a goner after the U.S. put its weight behind his political rival and crippled his government with sanctions, is offering an unorthodox payback to Wall Street creditors as part of a long-shot effort to get the Trump administration to reverse its policy.

In recent weeks, several American financiers have huddled in Caracas with top government officials, including Maduro, according to five people familiar with the matter. They discussed a complex plan to pair up creditors, who hold $60 billion of defaulted bonds, with a foreign drilling company that would be granted the rights to some of the country’s richest oil fields. Some money could go to humanitarian aid for crisis-stricken Venezuelans.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-17/maduro-pitching-deal-to-bondholders-in-wild-bid-to-end-default

 

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washparkhorn

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Islamist Militancy in Pakistan:

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Taliban Gunmen Kill Two Pakistani Police Escorting Polio Team

Taliban militants in Pakistan have shot and killed two police officers who had been deployed to protect a polio vaccination team in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The unknown assailants opened fire as the officers were heading to a basic health unit in the Maidan area of Lower Dir district, local police told RFE/RL said on December 18.

They said a search was underway to find the gunmen.

Muhammad Khorasani, a spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban, the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), said the militant group was behind the attack.

In the past decade, Taliban militants have killed scores of health workers and police guarding them because they believe anti-polio vaccination campaigns are intended to sterilize Pakistani children.

Pakistan, where polio is still endemic, regularly carries out anti-polio drives. https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/taliban-gunmen-kill-two-pakistani-police-escorting-polio-team/30332066.html

 

 

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washparkhorn

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Syria:

Syria: 60,000 civilians flee surge of violence in Idlib

Syria's Idlib province has been hit by over 400 airstrikes over the past 24 hours, monitors said, prompting tens of thousands of people to flee. Rescue workers described the situation as a "humanitarian catastrophe."

Tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced in recent weeks due to heavy airstrikes the province of Idlib in northwestern Syria, the United Nations said on Friday.

Up to 60,000 people have fled the region, news agency DPA reported, citing a spokesperson with the UN humanitarian agency OCHA.

The area, which is one of the last opposition strongholds in Syria, has been the target of intensified airstrikes carried out by the Syrian army and Russian forces.

More than 400 airstrikes have hit civilian areas in Idlib over the past 24 hours, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The Syrian army and Russia, which is allied with President Bashar Assad, deny indiscriminately bombing civilians and say that they are targeting al-Qaida-inspired militants.

https://www.dw.com/en/syria-60000-civilians-flee-surge-of-violence-in-idlib/a-51758942

 

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washparkhorn

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Populists v. Autocrats:

The Dark Side of Autocratic Rule

Despite the mounting resistance, the forces of autocracy have been on the rise. For example, Brazil elected as president Jair Bolsonaro—a man who, at great risk to public safety, openly encourages the use of lethal force by the military and police in a country already wracked by a sky-high rate of police killings and more than 60,000 homicides per year.

Established autocrats and their admirers continued their disregard for basic rights. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi persisted in silencing independent voices and civic groups and locking up thousands for their presumed political views. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte encouraged more summary executions, supposedly of drug suspects, but often of people guilty of no more than being poor young men. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban implemented his brand of “illiberal democracy.” Poland’s de facto ruler, Jarosław Kaczyński, sought to stack his country’s courts with his preferred judges, undermining the judiciary’s independence. Italy’s interior minister and deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, closed ports to refugees and migrants, scuttled efforts to save migrants’ lives at sea, and stoked anti-immigrant sentiment. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi failed to halt the demonizing of Muslims while attacking civic groups that criticized his rights record or environmental policies. The Cambodian prime minister, Hun Sen, tightened his grip on power by holding sham elections from which the opposition party was banned. US President Donald Trump disparaged immigrants and minorities and tried to bully judges and journalists whom he deemed to stand in his way. Russia under President Vladimir Putin continued its multi-year crackdown on independent voices and political opposition. China closed off any possibility of organized opposition to the increasingly one-man rule of Xi Jinping.

Beyond the immediate victims, some of the economic costs of autocratic rule became more visible over the course of the year. Oil-rich Venezuela once enjoyed one of Latin America’s highest standards of living but today, under the autocratic rule of President Nicolás Maduro, Venezuelans suffer severe shortages of food and medicine, causing millions to flee the country. President Erdogan, persisting with large-scale building projects that often benefited his allies, oversaw a plummeting currency and a skyrocketing cost of living in Turkey. Mozambique discovered that $2 billion in government funds had disappeared from its treasury.

China’s much-touted “One Belt, One Road” initiative to develop trade infrastructure fostered autocratic mismanagement in other countries. In keeping with Beijing’s longstanding practice, Belt and Road loans come with no visible conditions, making Beijing a preferred lender for autocrats. These unscrutinized infusions of cash made it easier for corrupt officials to pad their bank accounts while saddling their people with massive debt in the service of infrastructure projects that in several cases benefit China more than the people of the indebted nation.

In Malaysia, Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad cancelled three major infrastructure projects financed by Chinese loans amid concerns that his predecessor, Najib Razak, had agreed to unfavorable terms to obtain funds to cover up a corruption scandal. Unable to afford its enormous debt burden, Sri Lanka was forced to surrender control of a port to China, built with Chinese loans but without an economic rationale in the home district of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Kenya came to rue a Chinese-funded railroad that offered no promise of economic viability. Pakistan, Djibouti, Sierra Leone, and the Maldives all expressed regret at having agreed to certain Chinese-funded projects. Talk of a Chinese “debt trap” became common.

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/keynote/autocrats-face-rising-resistance

 

 

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washparkhorn

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The shortage of women/girls in China/India:

We are learning right now what happens when the sex ratio becomes wildly out of whack, through a huge unintended experiment. In the world’s two most populated countries—China and India—there is a serious woman shortage. 

The consequence is that in those countries combined—which together have a population of about 2.73 billion—there are now an estimated 80 million extra men. “Nothing like this has happened in human history,” the Washington Post wrote in an April 2018 article.

In India, many families used sex-selective abortion to choose boys, prompting the passage of a law that made it illegal to screen for the sex of the fetus and conduct sex-selective abortions. In China, similar decisions were encouraged by the “one-child” policy in place from 1979 to 2015, which prompted many parents to decide that their sole child must be a boy.

 https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/essay/you-should-be-worrying-about-the-woman-shortage

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tchookem

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Oh, so now you are inclined to entertain the WTO's recent warnings?  Imagine what happens when the world is gripped by a global recession and numerous sovereign currency/debt crises.
So what does the ordinary, average Surly Thousandaire do in preparation?
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washparkhorn

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1 hour ago, tchookem said:
11 hours ago, bernorange said:
Oh, so now you are inclined to entertain the WTO's recent warnings?  Imagine what happens when the world is gripped by a global recession and numerous sovereign currency/debt crises.

So what does the ordinary, average Surly Thousandaire do in preparation?

You are fine. Unless the russians get their wish for a civil war here (not going to happen). Live your life and dream of a better world for you and yours. Tell politicians you want them to be  working for our better future. Vote accordingly. 

The US is sturdy and still pretty shiny. Change is coming but it is good change for citizens.

The world's hot spots are have been seething for a long time. New ones appear. Old ones resolve. The suffering is horrible and pointless. 

But the spice will flow thanks to the US. We should expect improvement in safeguards. it's either 4 to 8 years of more looting by the wealthy, or . . . things might start to improve dramatically for ordinary folks worth less than 32 million. Those worth over 32 million have had a very good run for the past 43 years. They will only be impacted by the slight narrowing of the wealth gap - because they will make more money when the wealth gap is reduced.

That is unless the Fed screws it up. Bernorange is hedged against that risk as well as can be expected. It is a serious threat, but nothing like the horrors of conflict. 

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bernorange

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7 hours ago, tchookem said:

So what does the ordinary, average Surly Thousandaire do in preparation?

If you have savings right now, you are already top 30%.   

https://www.gobankingrates.com/saving-money/savings-advice/americans-have-less-than-1000-in-savings/

I tried to walk Brisket back from the (political/no cr) ledge where he's been dwelling for a while, but I dwell on my own ledge watching all the financial news.  How best to prepare depends upon what you expect you are preparing for.  Best case imo, prolonged, peaceful economic strife (depression).  In this case, live below your means and save what you can.  Worst case, well investing in the means for self protection would be wise.

6 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

... The US is sturdy and still pretty shiny. ...

Is it though, or is the music nearing it's end with our insane fiat monetary experiment?

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/F1DefFund1219.html

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atomheartbevo

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17 hours ago, tchookem said:
On 12/21/2019 at 2:51 PM, bernorange said:
Oh, so now you are inclined to entertain the WTO's recent warnings?  Imagine what happens when the world is gripped by a global recession and numerous sovereign currency/debt crises.

So what does the ordinary, average Surly Thousandaire do in preparation?

Watch out for American ships being attacked.  War of 1812, Spanish American War, WW1, WW2 and Vietnam all started with American ships being attacked in some way (who attacked them is for another discussion).

Have some land or access to land somewhere.   Have some savings.   

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Onboard 2.0

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Watch out for American ships being attacked.  War of 1812, Spanish American War, WW1, WW2 and Vietnam all started with American ships being attacked in some way (who attacked them is for another discussion).

Have some land or access to land somewhere.   Have some savings.   

REMEMBER THE MAINE !!!

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Thetexashammer

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10 hours ago, bernorange said:

If you have savings right now, you are already top 30%.   

https://www.gobankingrates.com/saving-money/savings-advice/americans-have-less-than-1000-in-savings/

I tried to walk Brisket back from the (political/no cr) ledge where he's been dwelling for a while, but I dwell on my own ledge watching all the financial news.  How best to prepare depends upon what you expect you are preparing for.  Best case imo, prolonged, peaceful economic strife (depression).  In this case, live below your means and save what you can.  Worst case, well investing in the means for self protection would be wise.

Is it though, or is the music nearing it's end with our insane fiat monetary experiment?

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/F1DefFund1219.html

The prediction of financial apocalypse is entirely legitimate. It ends in hyperinflation and significant economic disruption. 

Practicing a degree of survivalism is good for your mental and physical health and it can be lots of fun, like shooting guns or camping. What the Mormons preach is also just a kind of practical wisdom.

 

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Brisketexan

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It's been much, much, much worse than it is now.
World War II was a fucking catastrophe.

Of course it’s been worse. Your point is meaningless, if you believe in linear time.

It’s not about where we are, it’s about where we’re headed.

Things weren’t so bad in 1912. Or in 1930. But they were headed for some real shit. We’ve actually seen this series of plays being run before. It ends in hypernationalist idiocy and the violence and cruelty that belief system makes inevitable.

Much of the world is effectively saying “hey, let’s do that whole 1895-1945 thing again, but this time we’ll get it right.” We won’t.
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washparkhorn

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The über-wealthy can pull the plug on the whole fiat experiment anytime they want. Right now, the monetarists (hard money folks -  Austrians, neoliberals, Keynsians) cannot explain the lack of inflation. We saw the same thing in Japan. The US has king dollar. It's not so easy for other currencies.

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washparkhorn

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 We’ve actually seen this series of plays being run before. It ends in hypernationalist idiocy and the violence and cruelty that belief system makes inevitable.
 

It ends in hyper-tribalism, which is much, much worse. The failing nations are failing because of tribalism, not nationalism at this point. That may come later, but right now it is tribe v. tribe.

The solutions in this nation are within our grasp. But there is a lot of money being made pitting people against one another. And fuck those fanning those flames. 

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RayDog

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The high income countries have already surpassed peak 15-64 year old population. The UN predicts in it's most believable prediction that the US working age population will only grow by 10 million over the next 20 years, an average of 40,000 a month. At the same time Republicans are trying to kill immigration thus threatening Americas only path toward steady economic growth.

The upper middle income countries which includes China passed peak 15-64 year old population. China did so in 2017 and reached peak employment in 2018 and are now experiencing decreased demand for goods. The only way to increase demand is to increase wages but that will ultimately cause inflation rather than real growth.

The upper middle income countries including India are still growing but India hit 2.1 TFR in 2017 and is now sub replacement per the most trustworthy study. We cannot trust the lower middle and lower income economies to fuel the world's economy.

I think the world is reaching peak gdp in inflation adjusted terms as real demand slows with 15-64 year old population loss.

For at least the next century we will be dealing with contracting economies throughout the world.

Right now the only high income countries that are well positioned to maintain slow economic growth with immigration are the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, UK, Germany, and France. Some will screw it up.

Edited by RayDog
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Junior Miller

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On 12/22/2019 at 12:32 AM, David Dennison said:

It's been much, much, much worse than it is now.

World War II was a fucking catastrophe.

The only thing keeping us from entering another world war situation is the sheer horror that nuclear war brings. Even the most evil and horrible dictators/populist leaders know being the dead ruler of a nation destroyed by nuclear war is a risk not worth taking. Can't enjoy ravishing the wealth of your own population Trump-style if you and/or your entire population is destroyed. 

This is a weird time in history thanks to 120 years of unprecedented technological advancement at such a rapid pace. Life was far more similar around the globe between 10,000 BC and 1900 AD than it is between 1900 and 2020 and we as a species just aren't well equipped to handle the changes. 

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David Dennison

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12 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

The prediction of financial apocalypse is entirely legitimate. It ends in hyperinflation and significant economic disruption. 

Practicing a degree of survivalism is good for your mental and physical health and it can be lots of fun, like shooting guns or camping. What the Mormons preach is also just a kind of practical wisdom.

I laughed at this.

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atomheartbevo

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13 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

What the Mormons preach is also just a kind of practical wisdom

The prepper stuff is less about practical wisdom and more about funneling resources into the church, and was/is a good way of fostering an us vs them attitude, which helped control church members and keep them in the fold.    That, and their early leaders really fucked up and got the Mormons driven out of Illinois and Missouri, and put them into survivalist mode.   Completely self-inflicted.  

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