Voter segmentation

[Nice Guy Eddie 13730]

Admittedly this data is 2 years old but amazing changes from '94-'17 in how voter groups now stand in identifying as GOP or Democrat, especially when asking independents to commit to leaning right or left:  https://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/

2008-10 definitely had some major shifts in attitudes with some groups. I'm sure it's some combination of electing a black President, the '08 recession, and the aforementioned President's policies.  Older (silent generations) white men ran away from the Dem party in '08.

I'm looking forward to future charts to understand better how Trump politics changes the segments.

Some standout charts:

Total

Education

Religion.  Note: other religion or non are listed on other charts on that link

If I can find time later this week, I will try to put together some summarized reports on the data.

 

[elfenix 34749]

i'd like to see the charts as a portion of the voter base as a whole, rather than as a portion of the population who identify as *white non-hispanic evangelical protestant* (these naming conventions are worse than bmw's!)

[BradInATX 9208]

The biggest takeaway for me from all that is from the chart that shows 50% Dem identification and 42% Republican.

It shows that 8% of the country is so ashamed of Donald Trump that they refuse to identify as Republican, but they're still voting for him.

And 99% of that 8% is here on the Cloak Room, telling us about both sides and trying to convince us that they're super duper smart, and not at all greedy racist hicks.

 

 

[formermav43 4630]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The biggest takeaway for me from all that is from the chart that shows 50% Dem identification and 42% Republican.

It shows that 8% of the country is so ashamed of Donald Trump that they refuse to identify as Republican, but they're still voting for him.

And 99% of that 8% is here on the Cloak Room, telling us about both sides and trying to convince us that they're super duper smart, and not at all greedy racist hicks.

 

 

Considering Clinton got 48% and Trump 46% of the vote, your takeaway might be that some of those supposed Dems must have voted for him.

[NWBuck 8629]

2 hours ago, elfenix said:

 *white non-hispanic evangelical protestant* (these naming conventions are worse than bmw's!)

Seriously. Worst bowl game sponsor ever. 

[elfenix 34749]

1 hour ago, NWBuck said:

Seriously. Worst bowl game sponsor ever. 

welcome back to the the bee em double you ecks three ecks drive thirty eye bowl here in beautiful downtown peoria

Edited January 3, 2020 by elfenix

[TexArcher 39071]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

The biggest takeaway for me from all that is from the chart that shows 50% Dem identification and 42% Republican.

It shows that 8% of the country is so ashamed of Donald Trump that they refuse to identify as Republican, but they're still voting for him.

This may be a faulty assumption.  I'm neither Democrat nor Republican, but I'm voting for whichever Democrat wins the primary.  I'd vote for Darth Vader over Trump.  And I know several other independents who'd echo that.

[Mole 4339]

4 hours ago, TexArcher said:

This may be a faulty assumption.  I'm neither Democrat nor Republican, but I'm voting for whichever Democrat wins the primary.  I'd vote for Darth Vader over Trump.  And I know several other independents who'd echo that.

At least Vader used his anger productively. I'd vote for the regenerated corpse of Karl Marx at this point. 

[RayDog 682]

Boomer and older will only be about 30% of eligible voters in Texas in 2020, so if Trump wins Texas blame Gen X.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13730]

3 hours ago, RayDog said:

Boomer and older will only be about 30% of eligible voters in Texas in 2020, so if Trump wins Texas blame Gen X.

But boomer and silent will still vote in higher percentages than any other age range. Gen X can’t offset that alone. regardless of who to blame, trump will poll 45% in Texas and win at least 54%.

Unless something drastic occurs, Texas will flip blue in 2028 or 32.  Everyday you probably have someone dying in Texas who has a high probability of being GOP and they’re replaced by more than 1 person turning 18 or moving here that isn’t GOP.  Texas gop can’t survive forever with that math. They’re holding on stronger than many thought but voter restrictions or suppressions can’t last forever.

[Turkleton 145]

5 hours ago, Mole said:

At least Vader used his anger productively. I'd vote for the regenerated corpse of Karl Marx at this point. 

Pretty sure most of the people on this board would vote for a live Karl Marx over Trump. Most likely any other GOP that would run as well.

[BradInATX 9208]

49 minutes ago, Turkleton said:

Pretty sure most of the people on this board would vote for a live Karl Marx over Trump. 

Well, by the time the GOP runs their playbook in 2020, that's about what the election is going to be framed as. 

[wildcat09 29579]

19 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Admittedly this data is 2 years old but amazing changes from '94-'17 in how voter groups now stand in identifying as GOP or Democrat, especially when asking independents to commit to leaning right or left:  https://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/

2008-10 definitely had some major shifts in attitudes with some groups. I'm sure it's some combination of electing a black President, the '08 recession, and the aforementioned President's policies.  Older (silent generations) white men ran away from the Dem party in '08.

I'm looking forward to future charts to understand better how Trump politics changes the segments.

Some standout charts:

Total

Education

Religion.  Note: other religion or non are listed on other charts on that link

If I can find time later this week, I will try to put together some summarized reports on the data.

 

Gotta love how all of the aging white guys lost their jobs and then rushed to join the political party most responsible for that fact, just because a black man was elected President. And then most of the media spent the entire Obama administration pretending those very obvious racists were just motivated by economic uncertainty.