Roster Inventory Talk

[Fud 9552]

Heading into the offseason, here's where I have the roster at, according to my math. Feel free to offer corrections.
 

Graduating Seniors, assuming no redshirts (12)
Sam Ehlinger
Daniel Young
Cade Brewer
Tope Imade
Derek Kerstetter
Denzel Okafor
Marqez Bimage
Taquon Graham
Jacoby Jones
Donovan Duvernay
Chris Brown
Hank Coutoumanos

Redshirt Juniors (7)
Sam Cosmi
Kobe Boyce
Montrell Estell
Josh Thompson
Reese Leitao
Russell Hine
Cort Jaquess

True Juniors (13)
Keaontay Ingram
Juwan Mitchell
Joseph Ossai
Anthony Cook
Jalen Green
BJ Foster
DeMarvion Overshown
Caden Sterns
D'Shawn Jamison
Brennan Eagles
Andrew Dicker
Ryan Bujcevski
Justin Mader

Redshirt Sophomores (15)
Casey Thompson
Malcolm Epps
Alvonte Woodard
Junior Angilau
Rafiti Ghirmai
Christian Jones
Reese Moore
Josh Moore
Daniel Carson
Keondre Coburn
Moro Ojomo
Ayodele Adeoye
Byron Vaughns
Willie Tyler
Luke Brockermeyer

True Sophomores (7)
Marcus Washington
Jared Wiley
Chris Adimora
Roschon Johnson
Tyler Owens
Jake Smith
T'Vondre Sweat

Redshirt Freshmen (12)
Derrian Brown
Marquess Caldwell
David Gbenda
Isaiah Hookfin
Tyler Johnson
Kennedy Lewis
Brayden Liebrock
Peter Mpagi
Marcus Tillman
Myron Warren
Kenyatta Watson
Jordan Whittington

Total (66)

- As it stands, Texas can take 19 in this (2020) class+transfers with zero attrition
- As we know, there's never zero attrition, and I think Texas can probably take over a full class + transfers if it wants to, with the limit being governed with an eye more towards keeping room for the 2021 class than making the fall camp 85 scholarship limit
- There are some obvious names for potential attrition here, although I won't explore that here
- It's never been 100% cleared up, but after originally thinking that scholarship transfers didn't count towards the 25 scholarship limit (I'm aware that technically there are two different 25 counters, but they essentially affect the roster in the same way), I now lean towards transfers counting
- In the PP world of college football (post Portal), with transfers possibly occurring more often and incoming transfers now counting towards counter limits, walk-ons appear to be the only way to fill in lost scholarships if you've used up your annual 25 + early enrollee space, so PWOs should play an important role in maintaining a healthy roster
- With this in mind, I think players without red flags become more valuable, while players with negative attrition red flags (positive attrition being early draft potential) become less valuable
- With the 2018 class being able to enter the draft early after the 2020 season, I think we could see a large 2021 class (27-28), if needed, depending on how large the 2020 class+transfers ends up being

[Sock Monkey 722]

[Ricky's one-hitter 9117]

Good timing Fud

IT/Position Outlook: Specialists

Returning Specialists:

K Cameron Dicker

P Ryan Bujcevski

LS Justin Mader

PR/KR D'Shawn Jamison, + others

Spoiler

By: Joe Cook

Texas head coach Tom Herman places enough emphasis on special teams to refer to them as “special forces,” where each unit’s designation serves as a historical tieback to the United States’ or the University of Texas’ military history.

The combined performances of Longhorn special teams weren’t spectacular throughout the 2019 season, but the individual performances put on by Longhorn specialists are worth highlighting and analyzing.

CAMERON DICKER

2019 Stats: 56/57 XP, 14/18 FG, 78 kickoffs, 49 touchbacks

Placekicking is a binary pursuit. The aesthetic of the ball-flight, how many times it careens off the uprights, or by how much it clears the crossbar are all insignificant to the only question that matters: did you make it?

Sophomore kicker Cameron Dicker made 78 percent of his field goals in 2019, up six percent from his 2018 campaign. However, he attempted seven fewer field goals this year, leading to only 14 makes in 2019 compared to 18 last season.

Herman’s fourth down decision making process, jokingly referred to by fans and media as “the binder,” often kept the ball in the offense’s hands rather than on the right foot of Dicker.

With fewer occasions to kick, his four misses were magnified. He failed to convert a 49-yarder just before halftime in the season opener versus LA Tech, a 26-yard attempt following a TCU turnover on a kickoff, a 55-yard kick with the distance but lacking accuracy against Kansas State, and a 42-yard attempt against West Virginia following a 16-play drive.

The biggest miss might be the one that took place in Fort Worth, though Dicker’s miscues were the least of Herman and the rest of the Longhorn staff’s worries from that contest.

Despite those four misses Dicker did hit several important three-pointers during the 2019 season, including two that altered the course of Texas’ season. The first important FG wasn’t significant in the context of the game, but it put Dicker into a special place in Texas history. He hit a 57-yarder versus Rice at NRG Stadium, the seventh-longest field goal in program history.

Later in the season, his services were required for two game-winning field goals; one a 33-yard attempt to defeat Kansas, the other a 26-yard try to defeat Kansas State. He converted both, salvaging two home victories for Texas.

His lone miss on extra-point attempts occurred in the final regular season game when Texas Tech blocked his first PAT of the contest. It would not cause issue in the game.

Dicker kicked off all but three times this year, the other two going to Chris Naggar in blowout wins versus LA Tech and Rice. Of Dicker’s 78 kickoffs, 49 of them ended as touchbacks and were not returned. Only one was penalized for going out of bounds compared to four in his freshman season. He accounted for two solo tackles with one at TCU and one at WVU.

Thanks to Dicker, Longhorn opponents averaged 22.48 yards per return when they decided not to kneel or fair catch to receive the ball at the 25-yard line, according to the NCAA. The one blemish on the record of the Longhorn kickoff team was when Josh Youngblood returned a kick 98 yards for Kansas State.

There was no sophomore slump for Dicker. Even if he makes peculiar wardrobe decisions, the decision to go to his leg helped Texas score 70 times in 2019. He has yet to have a true #CollegeKickers lackluster moment in his career, and not all college kickers can say that.

THE INTERNATIONAL PUNTING CONGLOMERATE

Ryan Bujcevski 2019 stats: 32 punts, 41.7 yard average, 10 Inside 20, 3 touchbacks, 3 50+ yard punts, 13 punts fair caught

Chris Naggar 2019 stats: 25 punts, 39.32 yard average, 10 Inside 20, 0 touchbacks, 3 50+ yard punts, 16 fair caught

Total 2019 punting stats: 57 punts, 40.67 yard average, 20 Inside 20, 3 touchbacks, 6 50+ yard punts, 29 fair caught

Before his shoulder injury suffered on a fake punt run against TCU, Ryan Bujcevski was on pace to top his freshman punting average of 40.3 by an entire yard.

Bujcevski averaged 40 yards per punt in all but the Oklahoma State game. Despite a lower average against the Cowboys, three of Bujcevski’s four kicks were downed inside the 20.

Texas’ decision to use Bujcevski on a fake punt run in the early third quarter against TCU resulted in the sophomore Australian missing the remainder of the regular season. However, there was a limited dropoff between Texas’ scholarship punter and walk-on Chris Naggar.

Naggar performed admirably when thrust into the starting role. His first punt in relief of Bujcevski was a 54-yarder Texas downed inside the TCU 20. He was called upon 24 times over Texas’ final four regular season games. His 16 punts at Iowa State and Baylor averaged 39.2 yards.

In between the end of the regular season and Alamo Bowl, Naggar put his name into the NCAA Transfer Portal. With a degree in hand, Naggar used his opportunity as a showcase to other schools searching for a grad transfer specialist.

The combined effort of Texas’ international punting conglomerate resulted in Texas placing 12th nationally in punt return defense. Per the NCAA, 2019 Longhorn opponents totaled 30 yards on nine punt returns. With only three touchbacks and 30 total return yards, Texas was No. 46 nationally in net punting at 39.09 net yards per punt.

Texas’ return units put together mediocre seasons, but the punt coverage team was one of the most efficient in the nation.

JUSTIN MADER

2018: 140 snaps

2019: 132 snaps

Sophomore long snapper Justin Mader has provided consistent snaps to Longhorn punters and placeholders over his first two seasons on campus.

A walk-on from Magnolia, he snapped three different game-winning field goals over the last two years including the 2018 game winner versus Oklahoma.

Most fans don’t recognize the work of the long snapper unless he messes up. This long snapper hasn’t committed an unforced error on any of his 272 career snaps. Mader is a key piece to Herman’s special teams units who has been a remarkably consistent deep snapper over his two seasons in Austin.

By: Eric Nahlin

D’SHAWN JAMISON

Returning kickoffs doesn’t carry the importance it once did, at least at Texas. Devin Duvernay and D’Shawn Jamison combined for only 18 on the season, but as we saw in the Alamo Bowl, a big punt return can be a game changer.

Along with just 18 kickoff returns, Texas only attempted 16 punt returns, netting 161 yards in the process.

For the second year in a row, Jamison did have a 90+ yard return for a touchdown, which helped skew his kickoff return average to 30.6 yards per return on just 8 attempts.

Jamison also added that huge 71-yard punt return versus Utah that set up an easy touchdown.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1212181862195646465

Christopher Reiss
@NFL_ChrisReiss
#Texas PR D’Shawn Jamison returned a 71-yard punt to the 5-yard line...🤭🤭🤭🤭🤭#Texas #Utah #AlamoBowl 
 

Embedded video
108
8:20 PM - Dec 31, 2019
Twitter Ads info and privacy
23 people are talking about this
Shades of Ramonce

Assuming he can prove reliable hands and decision making (in other words, be coached), the governor needs to be removed from D’Shawn Jamison. He’s one of the most electric athletes in college football, it’s time he get the chance to show it.

Shorter fields help the offense, Coach.

TOM HERMAN

When Tom Herman arrived at Texas he touted his involvement in special teams. Due to reasons we’ve belabored, his time was spent on coordinating the offense rather than overseeing ‘total football’. With the hiring of Mike Yurcich, hopefully the level of detail he was known for at U of H on special teams is immediately restored at Texas.

UT has the athletic advantage in nearly every contest it partakes. Special teams should highlight that on a near weekly basis, whether in the return game or covering punts and kickoffs.

We‘ve mentioned Chris Ash thinks there’s an abundance of safety talent — too much to get on the field at once, even. That right there tells you there’s no excuse to not feature menacing coverage teams. For some odd reason, UT was good versus punt returns but poor defending kicks.

That should be easy to fix with a little more discipline. Discipline Herman now assuredly has time to instill.

The overall special teams unit should be one of the best in the country for 2020 and certainly better than 55th.

 

[closetojumping 62746]

Man, I know it will look different down the line, but right now, OL looks frightening heading into the 2021 season. Add in breaking in a new QB and ... that's grim. Herman better win big in 2020, and he should, and then we'll be praying to get to 10 wins somehow in 2021 even if that happens.

[Burt Macklin 19038]

7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Man, I know it will look different down the line, but right now, OL looks frightening heading into the 2021 season. Add in breaking in a new QB and ... that's grim. Herman better win big in 2020, and he should, and then we'll be praying to get to 10 wins somehow in 2021 even if that happens.

Herman could go 11-1 in the regular season, and I’d still be worried about the steps back we’ll take in 2021. We’ll be losing Ehlinger, Cosmi, and a bunch of the top talent from 2018 class, which is followed by a 2019 class alraa was DT hit by attrition and a small 2020 class. It’s also why wasting 2019 (and thereby undercutting recruiting for the 2020 and 2021 classes) was so criminal, and will be an issue even if he does turn it around in a big way in 2020. 

Edited January 7, 2020 by Burt Macklin

[Fud 9552]

Obvious lee Herman's Tommy Brockermeyer pitch will be immediately starting at LT. 5D underwater mensa chess. 

[Dbeasy 15068]

I’m more surprised by the senior and redshirt junior classes. The talent isn’t that great.

[Burt Macklin 19038]

1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

I’m more surprised by the senior and redshirt junior classes. The talent isn’t that great.

You’re surprised our 25th ranked transition class isn’t that great? 

[Fud 9552]

In 2021, you're looking at

 

Redshirt Juniors

Junior Angilau (third year starter)

Christian Jones (possibly a second year contributor, maybe second year starter if no grad transfers are added)

Rafiti Ghirmai (likely first year contributor)

Reese Moore (likely first year contributor)

Willie Tyler (likely first year contributor)

 

Redshirt Sophomores

Tyler Johnston (possibly a second year contributor)

Isaiah Hookfin (likely first year contributor, possibly a second)

 

2020 class will all be second year guys. None are likely contributors as freshmen. They're all probably good enough to contribute their second year, although I wouldn't predict any starting, except for maybe Majors might be a starting center his second year

 

I like all of the 2021 guys, but the only ones who I'd feel ok about starting as true freshmen will likely be both Brockermeyers 

 

A lot of unknowns, but plenty of talent. Maybe something like Tommy Brock/Hookfin - Tyler Johnson-Majors/James Brock - Angilau - Jones/Hookfin/Tommy Brock

 

There's also always a decent chance one spot is filled via grad transfer 

 

Edited January 7, 2020 by Fud

[HtownHorn 14724]

15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Man, I know it will look different down the line, but right now, OL looks frightening heading into the 2021 season. Add in breaking in a new QB and ... that's grim. Herman better win big in 2020, and he should, and then we'll be praying to get to 10 wins somehow in 2021 even if that happens.

Yeah, only have Kerstetter 1 more year is going to hurt, especially if Cosmi has a big year and declares. You'd have no OL from the 2017 class left on campus. You are in the area where Texas needs to hit on everyone of their 2018 and 2019 classes, or the depth chart is young and thin.

The OL recruiting needs to pick it up.

[Fud 9552]

Just now, HtownHorn said:

Yeah, only have Kerstetter 1 more year is going to hurt, especially if Cosmi has a big year and declares. You'd have no OL from the 2017 class left on campus. You are in the area where Texas needs to hit on everyone of their 2018 and 2019 classes, or the depth chart is young and thin.

The OL recruiting needs to pick it up.

The biggest issue is Moore and Ghirmai not showing much. Angilau will be a third year starter, and Jones was a late upside flyer who looks promising with another year of seasoning. Really need for Jones, Hookfin, and Johnston to come along. Also need a center, and maybe that can be Jake Majors, who's enrolling early and then likely redshirting. James might be tough to keep off the field though. 

Obviously this thread shows how important the Brockermeyers are. 

[HtownHorn 14724]

Just now, Fud said:

The biggest issue is Moore and Ghirmai not showing much. Angilau will be a third year starter, and Jones was a late upside flyer who looks promising with another year of seasoning. Really need for Jones, Hookfin, and Johnston to come along. Also need a center, and maybe that can be Jake Majors, who's enrolling early and then likely redshirting. James might be tough to keep off the field though. 

Obviously this thread shows how important the Brockermeyers are. 

I don't mind that Moore and Ghirmai haven't shown much so far. They are 2nd year players. I want to get back to the days when the OL doesn't need a lot of 2nd year players making huge plays onto the depth chart. My concern with Hand though, is he doesn't develop depth during the season. In a strong program Moore and Ghirmai would get 2 years to develop because a) they were projects, b) Ghirmai moved to C.

Hopefully they show something in spring, if not, then they need to be recruited over and portal'd. 

[texifornia 57000]

Just now, HtownHorn said:

I don't mind that Moore and Ghirmai haven't shown much so far. They are 2nd year players. I want to get back to the days when the OL doesn't need a lot of 2nd year players making huge plays onto the depth chart. My concern with Hand though, is he doesn't develop depth during the season. In a strong program Moore and Ghirmai would get 2 years to develop because a) they were projects, b) Ghirmai moved to C.

Hopefully they show something in spring, if not, then they need to be recruited over and portal'd. 

Much like our aborted attempts to develop Casey, a lot of that was us not running up leads on anyone.

[Burt Macklin 19038]

1 minute ago, HtownHorn said:

I don't mind that Moore and Ghirmai haven't shown much so far. They are 2nd year players. I want to get back to the days when the OL doesn't need a lot of 2nd year players making huge plays onto the depth chart. My concern with Hand though, is he doesn't develop depth during the season. In a strong program Moore and Ghirmai would get 2 years to develop because a) they were projects, b) Ghirmai moved to C.

Hopefully they show something in spring, if not, then they need to be recruited over and portal'd. 

This is beyond stupid. We were 8-5 and even if we had more blowouts, garbage minutes in games don’t develop OL. It’s about practice and offseason reps for them.
You play your best OL during the season no matter what. 

[Fud 9552]

3 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I don't mind that Moore and Ghirmai haven't shown much so far. They are 2nd year players. I want to get back to the days when the OL doesn't need a lot of 2nd year players making huge plays onto the depth chart. My concern with Hand though, is he doesn't develop depth during the season. In a strong program Moore and Ghirmai would get 2 years to develop because a) they were projects, b) Ghirmai moved to C.

Hopefully they show something in spring, if not, then they need to be recruited over and portal'd. 

I get all of the "get back to the days where we're redshirting and forgetting about guys until year four yada yada", but Moore has issues holding weight, and Ghirmai has just been bad in practice 

[Ricky's one-hitter 9117]

Curious to see what Yurcich does with his lines here. We'll have better talent than okie lite where he played some wider splits than we're used to. If that's the case, young, athletic guards wouldn't be as much of a liability. Just need to figure out which of Hookfin/Johnston/Jones will develop into quality starters

[BrazilHorn 6612]

I really hope the new coaches can fix this team. 
looking at rosters for next couple of seasons there just look to be a lot of roster eaters: Epps’ soft ass, Leitao, woodard, ayedele etc etc

just a bunch of fluff. I don’t see where Texas makes any kind of break through. I’d fail fast on this roster and recruit over them ASAP. 

[Hiphopopotamos 20875]

20 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

This is beyond stupid. We were 8-5 and even if we had more blowouts, garbage minutes in games don’t develop OL. It’s about practice and offseason reps for them.
You play your best OL during the season no matter what. 

This.  OL don't get snaps unless starters get hurt.   We're upset because we are going to have an experienced and veteran line in 2020 that is going to allow us to keep our 1st and 2nd year guys on the bench and in the weight room for another year before throwing them out in a game?   Isn't that a good thing?

We've recruited well on the OL the last few years and have been able to RS guys.  Where needed we've been able to plug in GT's to start and JUCO's for depth.

Angilau, Johnson, Moore, Hookfin, Jones should all be ready to sink/swim in 2021.  Then you'll have RS freshmen like Majors, Garth, Parr, and Karic - and an incredibly talented freshman class that could have an immediate starter like Tommy B.

[Thiefery 5012]

Just now, Hiphopopotamos said:

This.  OL don't get snaps unless starters get hurt.   We're upset because we are going to have an experienced and veteran line in 2020 that is going to allow us to keep our 1st and 2nd year guys on the bench and in the weight room for another year before throwing them out in a game?   Isn't that a good thing?

We've recruited well on the OL the last few years and have been able to RS guys.  Where needed we've been able to plug in GT's to start and JUCO's for depth.

Angilau, Johnson, Moore, Hookfin, Jones should all be ready to sink/swim in 2021.  Then you'll have RS freshmen like Majors, Garth, Parr, and Karic - and an incredibly talented freshman class that could have an immediate starter like Tommy B.

That and the line will benefit with having a runner like Bijan make them look better... Also Card with his quick release or even Jackson with his legs can probably help out the line as well.  

[JBJ 3655]

Cosmi might as well be a senior.  

I'm not sure who else would jump early.  Sterns is NFL-styled, but he hasn't had a year fully healthy.  I don't think Ossai or Eagles have shown enough either.  But with a big year next year, any of them could be gone.

Foster doesn't fit the NFL mold, I don't think he or Green will be scored well-enough to go early.

----

Our biggest 2021 needs in order are: DB, OL, LB, WR, DE.

But that's subject to change based on how 2020 ends up. There's still room for 5-6 more if we want them, plus a few more scholarships currently held by walk ons.

We also aren't sure exactly what the defense's needs are.  The good thing is that we have several guys capable of playing multiple spots up front.

Edited January 7, 2020 by JBJ

[Fud 9552]

The biggest need for 2021 is elite talent in general 

[Burt Macklin 19038]

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Cosmi might as well be a senior.  

I'm not sure who else would jump early.  Sterns is NFL-styled, but he hasn't had a year fully healthy.  I don't think Ossai or Eagles have shown enough either.  But with a big year next year, any of them could be gone.

Foster doesn't fit the NFL mold, I don't think he or Green will be scored well-enough to go early.

----

Our biggest 2021 needs in order are: DB, OL, LB, WR, DE.

But that's subject to change based on how 2020 ends up. There's still room for 5-6 more if we want them, plus a few more scholarships currently held by walk ons.

We also aren't sure exactly what the defense's needs are.  The good thing is that we have several guys capable of playing multiple spots up front.

You’re basing all this on their results under Orlando. A bunch of those guys have enough talent to bolt for the NFL after a good year next year. 

[LTtxfan 49250]

Maybe this info helps... Come Back @Machinator

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oct 3rd -- Machinator last updated Roster 2019 Post...

With the 2018 season in the books, it's time to look forward to next season. There's a lot that's going to change in the next month with NSD2, transfers, graduation, NFL draft decisions, and other attrition, but this is what we've got so far. I've included all signees from the early signing day of the 2019 cycle.

For DT/DE, WR, and C/OG/OT, and generally the freshmen I had to make some guesses.

Players in italics are in the transfer portal.

Scholarship count: 84

Last updated: October 3

Offense:

QB (2) : Ehlinger (Jr), C. Thompson (RS Fr)

RB (7) : K. Johnson (RS Sr), Ramirez (RS Sr), Young (Jr), Ingram (So), D. Brown (Fr), R. Johnson (Fr) Whittington (Fr)

OT (9) : Urquidez (RS Jr), Kerstetter (Jr), Cosmi (RS So), Tyler (So), C. Jones (RS Fr), R. Moore (RS Fr), T. Johnson (Fr), Hookfin (Fr), Shepherd (Fr)

OG (4) : Braun (Sr), Okafor (RS Jr), Imade (RS Jr), Angilau (RS Fr)

Center (2) : Shackelford (Sr), Ghirmai (RS Fr)

XWR (3) : Collin Johnson (Sr), Epps (RS Fr), Washington (Fr)

HWR (4) : Devin Duvernay (Sr), Pouncey (RS So), J. Moore (So), Smith (Fr)

ZWR (4) : Burt (RS Sr), Eagles (So), Woodard (RS Fr), Lewis (Fr)

TE (4) : Brewer (Jr), Leitao (RS So), Liebrock (Fr), Wiley (Fr)

 

Defense/ST:

DE (9) : Chisholm (RS Sr), Roach (Sr), Bimage (Jr), Graham (Jr), J. Jones (Jr), Cummins (RS So), Carson (RS Fr), Warren (Fr), Mpagi (Fr),

DT (5) : Christmas (Sr), Wilbon (Sr), Coburn (RS Fr), Ojomo (RS Fr), Sweat (Fr)

BLB (2) : Ossai (So), Vaughns (RS Fr)

RLB (3) : McCulloch (Sr), Caleb Johnson (Jr), Gbenda (Fr), Floyd (Fr)

MLB (6) : Hine (RS So), Jaquess (RS So), Mitchell (So), Adeoye (RS Fr), Brockermeyer (RS Fr), Tillman (Fr)

CB (7) : Donovan Duvernay (RS Jr), Boyce (RS So), Cook (So), Green (So), Jamison (So), Watson (Fr), Caldwell (Fr)

Nickel (3) : J. Thompson (Jr), Foster (So), Adimora (Fr)

FS (3) : Coutoumanos (Jr), Estell (RS So), Sterns (So)

BS (3) : B. Jones (Sr), C. Brown (RS Jr), Owens (Fr)

Joker (1) : Overshown (So)

K (1) : Dicker (So)

P (1) : Bujcevski (So)

DS (1): Mader (RS So)

Edited October 3, 2019 by Machinator

10

Edited January 7, 2020 by LTtxfan

[RGBIII 22840]

If we win big in 2020 finding adequate transfers shouldn’t be a problem...if we don’t win big in 2020 it won’t be Herman’s problem anyway...

[Dbeasy 15068]

You’re surprised our 25th ranked transition class isn’t that great? 

Yes. We took a small class and everyone assumed it would be weak because of its rank and size. However along the way there was a lot of talk by Herman, and even some posters on here, that the class really delivered better than was expected for a transition class. It hasn’t. It delivered just like the original expectations.

[Ravishing Rick 1129]

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Man, I know it will look different down the line, but right now, OL looks frightening heading into the 2021 season. 

Doesn't matter.  Got Bijan

[texifornia 57000]

2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

Yes. We took a small class and everyone assumed it would be weak because of its rank and size. However along the way there was a lot of talk by Herman, and even some posters on here, that the class really delivered better than was expected for a transition class. It hasn’t. It delivered just like the original expectations.

I think it's both things. It's been surprisingly good for a small, low-ranked class. However, it's a small, low-ranked class, the ceiling on it just isn't high.

[Burt Macklin 19038]

3 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

Yes. We took a small class and everyone assumed it would be weak because of its rank and size. However along the way there was a lot of talk by Herman, and even some posters on here, that the class really delivered better than was expected for a transition class. It hasn’t. It delivered just like the original expectations.

 

Herman’s bullshit was always just that.
Posters on here have said it’s good for a transition class, but that’s a very low bar. Mainly getting Ehlinger and Cosmi out of it is what’s huge and then some other contributors, like Kerstetter and Graham. It was always going to hold the roster talent back, compared to traditional classes, though. 

[Pato del Muerto 52524]

I skipped a bunch of posts so maybe this point has already been made, but this is where Tom’s one point victory mantra hurts us. 
we need to be up by 30 so the backups can get shuffled in and receive meaningful game action. That is how players develop, by playing, learning, correcting. 

[closetojumping 62746]

32 minutes ago, Ravishing Rick said:

Doesn't matter.  Got Bijan

You know what a great prescription for squandering away skill player talent on an offense is? Having a fucking terrible offensive line. I'd prefer to have Bijan, a stable of other backs and WRs, a loaded QB room, and a bunch of fucking maulers on the OL, personally. That's where all Texas fans should have their heads as well.

[texasstrong12 4668]

31 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Herman’s bullshit was always just that.
Posters on here have said it’s good for a transition class, but that’s a very low bar. Mainly getting Ehlinger and Cosmi out of it is what’s huge and then some other contributors, like Kerstetter and Graham. It was always going to hold the roster talent back, compared to traditional classes, though. 

If you want a good comparison go look at the '14 transition class under Strong. In a much bigger class, Foreman and Ford were the only recruits that ended up being really good players. Beck and Nelson were alright. 

This is the problem with transition classes. Such a high miss rate. Producing 3 to 5 contributors in a transition class is "good for a transition class" but it still puts you behind from an overall talent perspective.  

[Helobious 9462]

46 minutes ago, Ravishing Rick said:

Doesn't matter.  Got Bijan

I personally watched Malcolm Brown shred much tougher competition than Bijan has in HS. Didn’t fully translate in college, even though he’s carved out an NFL role now. So I’ll wait to see how Bijan does in college before I name him savior of the program.

[Gut Wagon 8083]

42 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I skipped a bunch of posts so maybe this point has already been made, but this is where Tom’s one point victory mantra hurts us. 
we need to be up by 30 so the backups can get shuffled in and receive meaningful game action. That is how players develop, by playing, learning, correcting. 

And presumably how you give them less reason to hit the portal. 

[closetojumping 62746]

8 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

If you want a good comparison go look at the '14 transition class under Strong. In a much bigger class, Foreman and Ford were the only recruits that ended up being really good players. Beck and Nelson were alright. 

This is the problem with transition classes. Such a high miss rate. Producing 3 to 5 contributors in a transition class is "good for a transition class" but it still puts you behind from an overall talent perspective.  

It's not so much the hit rate as it is the volume. Basically, both matter. Texas "hit" on Ehlinger, Gary Johnson, Kerstetter, Cosmi, Cade Brewer, Graham, Estell, Boyce, Thompson, Young, and Bimage. All of those guys have started, and many for full seasons, at Texas. Now, was the talent depleted from the transition with the prior regime? Sure. Does that mean some of these guys would not be starters for a loaded Texas? Sure. But overall, for what the program had to have, the talent was in the class to handle itself on the field well enough to win.

Where it really hurts is in the fact that the class is overall just really small, so no depth was built through this class. That's a problem when the program had abnormally high attrition from the 2016 class under Strong, plus Herman and his merry band of fucktards doing whatever they could to drive out as many of the guys from the prior regime as they could, as quickly as they could.

[BigHorn'13 3369]

4 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I skipped a bunch of posts so maybe this point has already been made, but this is where Tom’s one point victory mantra hurts us. 
we need to be up by 30 so the backups can get shuffled in and receive meaningful game action. 

Aaaaand that's where regardless of who is hired, I've lost all faith in Herman. Well that and the obsessive need for 11 personnel. 

Now to your point, the "one point victory" hurts us more because of the conference we play in. It makes zero fucking sense Herman gets all aggressive on 4th downs then turtles with a lead in the 4th. While everyone else can score quickly, we take pride in our 10+ play drive that may or may not result in points, dependent upon the opposing DC sobriety that day and Herman's feel of himself and his binder. 

Everyone seems really stoked about the OC hire. Seems to me more of the same and Herman's conduct and attitude since confirms it. Yurcich is probably a good hire but just as Tom said, he's never going to remove himself completely from the offense. 

Whether it's flipping off cameras or not wanting to "appease the masses," Herman is smarter than all of us and we should be oh so gracious to be in his mere presence. He made changes only HE felt were necessary. Not ones people have been screaming at him for the past 3 seasons. 

So we'll continue to be in plenty of game winning field goal drives against competition we shouldn't be in. We'll probably lose a couple of games due to moronic play calling and game planning. Guaranfuckingteed whomever we play the week after ou will be unnecessarily painful without even looking at the schedule. And the same people telling us know nothings to quit being pussies and have faith will be the first ones to go "See!!! Told ya so!!! Should've fired him last year!"

[Carl Spackler 3486]

8 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Herman could go 11-1 in the regular season, and I’d still be worried about the steps back we’ll take in 2021. We’ll be losing Ehlinger, Cosmi, and a bunch of the top talent from 2018 class, which is followed by a 2019 class alraa was DT hit by attrition and a small 2020 class. It’s also why wasting 2019 (and thereby undercutting recruiting for the 2020 and 2021 classes) was so criminal, and will be an issue even if he does turn it around in a big way in 2020. 

Legit concerns, but the good news is that our 2021 noncon schedule is embarrassingly easy.  Arkie is the marquee noncon opponent.

[Texasrocks 2134]

2 hours ago, Carl Spackler said:

Legit concerns, but the good news is that our 2021 noncon schedule is embarrassingly easy.  Arkie is the marquee noncon opponent.

Soooooo.... they are terrible and we should win convincingly?

[gmr548 16580]

It's too early to panic over the 2021 OL. Obviously there will be a lot of inexperience trotting out there and it's never easy replacing a NFL guy like Cosmi. That said, they've brought in some solid OL prospects over the past couple classes. I'm sure they'll look to bolster with a JUCO/GT take as well. There will obviously be growing pains but the pieces are mostly there for a solid unit.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[NTVTXN 1432]

11 hours ago, Texasrocks said:

Soooooo.... they are terrible and we should win convincingly?

Oh shit. Now you’ve done it. DOOMED.

[ClubWhatever 12145]

21 hours ago, Helobious said:

I personally watched Malcolm Brown shred much tougher competition than Bijan has in HS. Didn’t fully translate in college, even though he’s carved out an NFL role now. So I’ll wait to see how Bijan does in college before I name him savior of the program.

I hear what you are saying.  I think backs are hella hard to project, or I just suck at it.  I remember that first run Brown had in college, against Rice or UTEP or something, and I thought "shit, he is slower than I expected".  Exact opposite with Foreman- everyone saw on his first series that his 3-star rating was a joke.  Keontay hasn't had the burst or wiggle I was expecting.  It's like he's always hurt or something.  So since my expectations on RBs have proven worthless, I'm a little gun shy on Bijan.  One data point we have is that several 9.95 hacks who saw him at the AA game said he looked like he more than belonged.  "Chiseled", I think was the word.

Edited January 8, 2020 by ClubWhatever

[irishtexan 11521]

21 hours ago, closetojumping said:

It's not so much the hit rate as it is the volume. Basically, both matter. Texas "hit" on Ehlinger, Gary Johnson, Kerstetter, Cosmi, Cade Brewer, Graham, Estell, Boyce, Thompson, Young, and Bimage. All of those guys have started, and many for full seasons, at Texas. Now, was the talent depleted from the transition with the prior regime? Sure. Does that mean some of these guys would not be starters for a loaded Texas? Sure. But overall, for what the program had to have, the talent was in the class to handle itself on the field well enough to win.

Where it really hurts is in the fact that the class is overall just really small, so no depth was built through this class. That's a problem when the program had abnormally high attrition from the 2016 class under Strong, plus Herman and his merry band of fucktards doing whatever they could to drive out as many of the guys from the prior regime as they could, as quickly as they could.

Hit rate, volume, but also missed opportunities. That transition class came during one of the most absurdly stacked Texas classes of the last 20 years. Six 5-stars, not including JK Dobbins. We got none of them. This is why it's so important that Herman not shit the bed next year. I get that a lot of people don't like him and want to see him shown the door at this point. But we cannot afford to go through a transition class in what looks to be a similarly stacked in-state year.  

12 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

"Chiseled", I think was the word.

Edited January 8, 2020 by irishtexan

[Burt Macklin 19038]

47 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

I hear what you are saying.  I think backs are hella hard to project, or I just suck at it.  I remember that first run Brown had in college, against Rice or UTEP or something, and I thought "shit, he is slower than I expected".  Exact opposite with Foreman- everyone saw on his first series that his 3-star rating was a joke.  Keontay hasn't had the burst or wiggle I was expecting.  It's like he's always hurt or something.  So since my expectations on RBs have proven worthless, I'm a little gun shy on Bijan.  One data point we have is that several 9.95 hacks who saw him at the AA game said he looked like he more than belonged.  "Chiseled", I think was the word.

I’d say when healthy, Ingram’s been very impressive both years. His problem is that he’s an absolute shell of himself when he’s dinged up to the point that he’s not even really worth playing. Ingram’s either gonna need to learn to play through injuries or accept being a change of pace back. 

[Hiphopopotamos 20875]

 

[Burt Macklin 19038]

On 1/7/2020 at 7:07 AM, Fud said:

Heading into the offseason, here's where I have the roster at, according to my math. Feel free to offer corrections.
 

Graduating Seniors, assuming no redshirts (12)
Sam Ehlinger
Daniel Young
Cade Brewer
Tope Imade
Derek Kerstetter
Denzel Okafor
Marqez Bimage
Taquon Graham
Jacoby Jones
Donovan Duvernay
Chris Brown
Hank Coutoumanos

Redshirt Juniors (7)
Sam Cosmi
Kobe Boyce
Montrell Estell
Josh Thompson
Reese Leitao
Russell Hine
Cort Jaquess

True Juniors (13)
Keaontay Ingram
Juwan Mitchell
Joseph Ossai
Anthony Cook
Jalen Green
BJ Foster
DeMarvion Overshown
Caden Sterns
D'Shawn Jamison
Brennan Eagles
Andrew Dicker
Ryan Bujcevski
Justin Mader

Redshirt Sophomores (15)
Casey Thompson
Malcolm Epps
Alvonte Woodard
Junior Angilau
Rafiti Ghirmai
Christian Jones
Reese Moore
Josh Moore
Daniel Carson
Keondre Coburn
Moro Ojomo
Ayodele Adeoye
Byron Vaughns
Willie Tyler
Luke Brockermeyer

True Sophomores (7)
Marcus Washington
Jared Wiley
Chris Adimora
Roschon Johnson
Tyler Owens
Jake Smith
T'Vondre Sweat

Redshirt Freshmen (12)
Derrian Brown
Marquess Caldwell
David Gbenda
Isaiah Hookfin
Tyler Johnson
Kennedy Lewis
Brayden Liebrock
Peter Mpagi
Marcus Tillman
Myron Warren
Kenyatta Watson
Jordan Whittington

Total (66)

- As it stands, Texas can take 19 in this (2020) class+transfers with zero attrition
- As we know, there's never zero attrition, and I think Texas can probably take over a full class + transfers if it wants to, with the limit being governed with an eye more towards keeping room for the 2021 class than making the fall camp 85 scholarship limit
- There are some obvious names for potential attrition here, although I won't explore that here
- It's never been 100% cleared up, but after originally thinking that scholarship transfers didn't count towards the 25 scholarship limit (I'm aware that technically there are two different 25 counters, but they essentially affect the roster in the same way), I now lean towards transfers counting
- In the PP world of college football (post Portal), with transfers possibly occurring more often and incoming transfers now counting towards counter limits, walk-ons appear to be the only way to fill in lost scholarships if you've used up your annual 25 + early enrollee space, so PWOs should play an important role in maintaining a healthy roster
- With this in mind, I think players without red flags become more valuable, while players with negative attrition red flags (positive attrition being early draft potential) become less valuable
- With the 2018 class being able to enter the draft early after the 2020 season, I think we could see a large 2021 class (27-28), if needed, depending on how large the 2020 class+transfers ends up being

When you say  you’re leaning towards the NCAA considering scholarship transfers as initial counters, do you mean you think that would include JUCOs, portal transfers, and grad transfers?  
 

[RGBIII 22840]

1 minute ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

[Carl Spackler 3486]

13 hours ago, Texasrocks said:

Soooooo.... they are terrible and we should win convincingly?

I don't know about win convincingly.  But our '21 team should go undefeated outside the conference.  The noncon slate that season is looking tissue-paper light.       

[Funk Doctor Spock 12415]

1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

I suspect he'll end up at some lower tier FCS school. 

[T&T’s Dad 32]

17 hours ago, gmr548 said:

It's too early to panic over the 2021 OL. Obviously there will be a lot of inexperience trotting out there and it's never easy replacing a NFL guy like Cosmi. That said, they've brought in some solid OL prospects over the past couple classes. I'm sure they'll look to bolster with a JUCO/GT take as well. There will obviously be growing pains but the pieces are mostly there for a solid unit.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Shoot man, panic is the unquestioned identity of just about the entirety of the Surl...

 

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

3 hours ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I suspect he'll end up at some lower tier FCS school. 

I don't. He's good enough to start for a lot of FCS schools that will be contenders in their various conferences.

[Funk Doctor Spock 12415]

3 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

I don't. He's good enough to start for a lot of FCS schools that will be contenders in their various conferences.

I only remember him playing a few times, and he didn't do anything, so that's why I said that. I hope the kid lands at a good school.