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2020 Rain Thread

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phdhorn
phdhorn

Hello there. So here's the deal:  although I'll be posting much less frequently than before, I want to stop in here to say that I'll try to continue (er, pick back up) posting in here or a few weat

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Well everybody is different, but mine are generally in the morning.   But that's not important right now.

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Noah way.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, miguelito said:

It sounds like the area for potential ENHANCED severe weather has increased.  Hail and winds sound like the main threats.

Yeah, they expanded it mostly due to not knowing exactly when the front would come through the northern part of the area.  Discussions still say mostly S/E but watch out for yer cornholes.  Temps are gonna get pretty hot again today unless the front plows through earlier.  These tend to slow up in the daytime, so we'll see.  If it hits > 5 or so I'd say our area is a good shot for severe here/there.  If earlier, it might scrape by us before forming severe.

But with this front coming, there's definitely the lift needed that wasn't there yesterday.  It will rain for most of us, I believe.

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yesterday was a bunch of nothing.  I will believe none of these lies.

Neither will I!  (although the forecast was accurate yesterday, 20% chance of rain in the viewing area, ended up about 10% (San Saba and around there).
But there are lies, damn lies, and weather forecasts.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Posted

Probably-soon severe storm tracking N of us across extreme N Travis/Williamson/Burnet counties.  This one will be for anyone in Wilco and east.  Probably some hail in it, small broad rotation (not unusual, doesn't mean tornadic).  Again, all that's north and will stay that way (moving E/NE).

Other not (now) severe stuff forming W of us, bulk of that right now is S of us and will track south of TravCo.  But it'll fill in W of us and the line should hold.  If severe develops, next 2 hours will be the crux of it.  In any case don't see huge widespread stuff, just pockets of strong storms within a line.  Stay tuned.  

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6273

Posted
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35 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Probably-soon severe storm tracking N of us across extreme N Travis/Williamson/Burnet counties.  This one will be for anyone in Wilco and east.  Probably some hail in it, small broad rotation (not unusual, doesn't mean tornadic).  Again, all that's north and will stay that way (moving E/NE).

Other not (now) severe stuff forming W of us, bulk of that right now is S of us and will track south of TravCo.  But it'll fill in W of us and the line should hold.  If severe develops, next 2 hours will be the crux of it.  In any case don't see huge widespread stuff, just pockets of strong storms within a line.  Stay tuned.  

I guess I missed your return.  Glad to have you back.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Cell in Leander w/a bit of rotation (not worried much about that).

Cell in SE Blanco/SW Hays moving more or less E a bit NE.  1" hail in it, officially severe, but doesn't usually cause damage.

New Severe TS watch for most of SE Texas, we're in the far NW part and it'll expire for us in an hour or two once these passes.  They usually issue these when activity is actually cited.

I expect that the current storms tracking over us will get stronger once they pass over/out of Austin.

Lots of wind, not much rain yet in The Cave.

More in a few if needed.  So far, meh.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

That southern strong storm is gonna enter ATX from the SW and go up the souf side of the county.  Take care city and east, that storm is packing some wind and growing stronger.

NW/W Travis will generally be north of the worst of this cell.

 

Edit:  Northern storm (thru WillCo) is doing a lot of minor damage... tree branches, fences, etc.  But officially not yet severe (probably is)>
Rain now coming down in sheets in the Cave.  Good potent spring storm for me.

Watchout for your cornholes ATX and So TravCo.

Edited by phdhorn
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Hays storm now officially severe.  Austin, you gonna get wind/rain raped.  But still not on the dangerous side.  I'll let you know if it is.
Once these all pass, more rain is possible thru the evening, but probably not strong (this is stabilizing the atmosphere, reducing violent lift and therefore strong/severe storms).


Almost thru this stuff...

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South Austin

South Austin 52632

Posted
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14 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Hays storm now officially severe.  Austin, you gonna get wind/rain raped.  But still not on the dangerous side.  I'll let you know if it is.
Once these all pass, more rain is possible thru the evening, but probably not strong (this is stabilizing the atmosphere, reducing violent lift and therefore strong/severe storms).


Almost thru this stuff...

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, gecko said:

Does rain pick up COVID droplets while it falls to the ground?  If I run around outside in a storm catching rain in my mouth will I catch COVID?

Answer:  (although I assume you're sorta kinda joking)... Yes... and no.

Yes, heavy rain will theoretically wash Corona to the ground, technically speaking. 

No.  However... the droplets are of course so thinly spread out in a rainshower that chances are almost zero (and like 3,282,285 decimal figures to the right of the decimal point) percent that you'd get enough in you to do anything at all, almost overwhelmingly you'd get nothingl.  So the chances of you opening up your piehole out there and getting enough of 'em to contract it is beyond infinitesimally small.  Vic has more of a chance scoring with a slender chick than you getting anything like that.  Just too little.

Even the stuff that technically washes to the ground.. can you lick the ground and get it?  Again, same principle.  Plus the rainwater travels so fast and only a very tiny portion of it would even technically have it, that most of the virus would be in the first .001% of wash and after that, nope, unless you get out there when the rain first hits.  But give it a shot and report back.

The virus can last up to 3 days in water, but again it'd be so diluted that it would be more likely you wouldn't get any (or enough to cause problems).]


Alrighty then, this episode's over, now the cool and dry air for the next several days.  Late!

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Chet Steadman

Chet Steadman 940

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

29 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Answer:  (although I assume you're sorta kinda joking)... Yes... and no.

Yes, heavy rain will theoretically wash Corona to the ground, technically speaking. 

No.  However... the droplets are of course so thinly spread out in a rainshower that chances are almost zero (and like 3,282,285 decimal figures to the right of the decimal point) percent that you'd get enough in you to do anything at all, almost overwhelmingly you'd get nothingl.  So the chances of you opening up your piehole out there and getting enough of 'em to contract it is beyond infinitesimally small.  Vic has more of a chance scoring with a slender chick than you getting anything like that.  Just too little.

Even the stuff that technically washes to the ground.. can you lick the ground and get it?  Again, same principle.  Plus the rainwater travels so fast and only a very tiny portion of it would even technically have it, that most of the virus would be in the first .001% of wash and after that, nope, unless you get out there when the rain first hits.  But give it a shot and report back.

The virus can last up to 3 days in water, but again it'd be so diluted that it would be more likely you wouldn't get any (or enough to cause problems).]


Alrighty then, this episode's over, now the cool and dry air for the next several days.  Late!

If I ask a series of weather-related questions will you stick around for a while and answer?

I’m thinking like 1-2/day for the next year or so.  

Edited by Chet Steadman
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Yeah, sure.

I'll be posting less (again mostly when significant weather occurs) but will check for notifications, etc., especially if people wanna know something.  Might not get to it right away (for 1/2 day or so) but I'll get to it.

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Hate

Hate 20146

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Posted

Tomorrow could bring some very bad weather to much of the state.

day2otlk_0600.gif

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SPC AC 100600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
   INTO CENTRAL TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible across much of Texas, with the
   greatest threat likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
   Large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be
   the primary threats.

   ...Synopsis...
   The persistent upper low over the Southwest is forecast to begin
   ejecting eastward on Saturday, as a northern stream mid/upper-level
   trough drops into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Downstream, an
   upper ridge will develop over portions of the eastern CONUS by
   Sunday morning in the wake of an upper trough moving over the
   western Atlantic, which will allow the ejecting trough to take on a
   more neutral tilt by the end of the period. At the surface, low
   pressure is forecast to deepen over the central High Plains, to the
   south of a cold front that will sweep across the northern High
   Plains by Saturday evening. A warm front off of the LA/upper TX Gulf
   Coast will move northward during the day, while a dryline becomes
   established across the central/southern High Plains. 

   ...Much of TX into western LA...
   Rich low-level moisture will spread into much of central/east TX
   during the afternoon and evening, in the wake of the northward
   moving warm front. The warm sector will likely remain capped during
   the day, but as the ejecting trough begins to impinge on an
   increasingly buoyant airmass Saturday evening, thunderstorm
   development appears likely along the western edge of the moist axis.
   While this development will likely be somewhat elevated,
   moderate-to-strong elevated buoyancy and strong effective shear will
   favor organized storm structures capable of large hail (potentially
   significant), and also damaging wind gusts, especially if any
   upscale growth can occur. Despite the initially elevated nature of
   the convection, some tornado threat could also evolve prior to 12Z
   as storms encounter an increasingly moist boundary layer and
   potentially become rooted closer to the surface.  

   There is also a nonzero chance of development prior to 12Z Sunday
   morning along the upper TX coast, in association with the warm
   front. Any such activity would pose a conditional threat of all
   severe hazards, but with the ejecting trough still well to the west,
   the probability of this scenario appears low at this time.  

   ...Northwest TX into central KS...
   Modest low-level moisture that is transported into portions of west
   TX on Friday will advect northward into a larger portion of the
   southern/central Plains on Saturday. During the afternoon, moderate
   instability is forecast to develop from northwest TX into central
   KS, as dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s F are advected northward
   beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Widely scattered thunderstorm
   development is possible along a surface trough/dryline. Guidance has
   trended somewhat stronger with effective shear across this region,
   which is forecast to be in the 30-40 kt range. The environment will
   support a conditional risk of supercells, though coverage remains
   uncertain. A categorical upgrade to Slight Risk may eventually be
   needed over some portion of this area if confidence in storm
   coverage increases.

   ..Dean/Dial.. 04/10/2020
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

Overnight could be rough in spots.  Right now models are wavering between very scattered and more prevalent severe weather in our area.  Kind of surprised to see "ground zero" on those maps above move us out of the target zone and place it farther east.  Combination of cool front and somewhat potent storm moving in makes this pretty typical severe setup for this time of year in our area.  I see some strong storms coming in after midnight.  Should be issuing a severe TS/tornado watch later today, I would imagine.

I'll be back unless this fizzles - which, while not all that unheard of (duh!) is something I don't think will happen.  The fun with that system should start after about 9 tonight in the western Hill country.  All in the timing of that front.

BTW, today there's a slight chance of some daytime-driven strong storms today (dinnerish time or a bit earlier) but I don't think that'll be more than pinpoint - while it's related to the same storm, the front is still NW of us and won't have the lift of the storms after midnight.  But check the radar mid-late afternoon if you want to feel good.  Chances for stronger storms appear better south of us (SAT and the Valley) as they have less clouds, the temps will be a good bit warmer, so there's more heat (for us today, we'll continue to be under clouds and cool, so the heat will have a hard time building here... but if a big storm blows up SW of us it could hold together over us, though I doubt very much it'll strengthen here).   Again, this is all today - not tonight - which is a different cat.

I think tonight is the best chance so far this year for at least some of us to get a good weather whuppin'.  Hopefully not.

Edited by phdhorn
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HOOKEM4

HOOKEM4 5044

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Overnight could be rough in spots.  Right now models are wavering between very scattered and more prevalent severe weather in our area.  Kind of surprised to see "ground zero" on those maps above move us out of the target zone and place it farther east.  Combination of cool front and somewhat potent storm moving in makes this pretty typical severe setup for this time of year in our area.  I see some strong storms coming in after midnight.  Should be issuing a severe TS/tornado watch later today, I would imagine.

I'll be back unless this fizzles - which, while not all that unheard of (duh!) is something I don't think will happen.  The fun with that system should start after about 9 tonight in the western Hill country.  All in the timing of that front.

BTW, today there's a slight chance of some daytime-driven strong storms today (dinnerish time or a bit earlier) but I don't think that'll be more than pinpoint - while it's related to the same storm, the front is still NW of us and won't have the lift of the storms after midnight.  But check the radar mid-late afternoon if you want to feel good.  Chances for stronger storms appear better south of us (SAT and the Valley) as they have less clouds, the temps will be a good bit warmer, so there's more heat (for us today, we'll continue to be under clouds and cool, so the heat will have a hard time building here... but if a big storm blows up SW of us it could hold together over us, though I doubt very much it'll strengthen here).   Again, this is all today - not tonight - which is a different cat.

I think tonight is the best chance so far this year for at least some of us to get a good weather whuppin'.  Hopefully not.

 My wife always asks me to see what that "longhorn guy' has to say about the storms. This is wholly my fault but you better not quit us you cocksucker. We need you.

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