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2020 Rain Thread

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phdhorn
phdhorn

Hello there. So here's the deal:  although I'll be posting much less frequently than before, I want to stop in here to say that I'll try to continue (er, pick back up) posting in here or a few weat

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Well everybody is different, but mine are generally in the morning.   But that's not important right now.

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Noah way.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

I know you're busy, but damn curious about wednesday.  Will be able to see the flyover with the kids at 2:30?  and can our little neighborhood parade take place okay at 5:30p?  thanks!

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I know you're busy, but damn curious about wednesday.  Will be able to see the flyover with the kids at 2:30? 

Yes.

Quote

and can our little neighborhood parade take place okay at 5:30p?  thanks!

Is that supposed to be "today"?

60% yes.

or "tomorrow"?

Yes.

Edited by phdhorn
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

Well, that was unexpected! But I think it's kind of freaky deaky, do not expect severe weather at all with this today.

Don't think that thing touched down, I think it was just mid-lower level rotation.  It's moving away and will be out of here. No severe weather at all following that, 

Saturday's doesn't look to be a particularly severe day but all the sudden models are really predicting lots and lots of rain. May is our wettest month, so there you go.

Edit: nope, a touchdown, kind of a little nasty one, take care out there east of Austin.

Edited by phdhorn
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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

Saturday's doesn't look to be a particularly severe day but all the sudden models are really predicting lots and lots of rain. May is our wettest month, so there you go.

And it can't be a May in central Texas without recalling May 23, 2015.

I want to say that 2 of those bodies were never recovered. 

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Hate

Hate 20122

Posted
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Posted
12 minutes ago, stone oak said:

It always amazes me how these supposedly "non-severe" events are usually the worst for our area. I'd hate to be a weatherman in central Texas.

The NWS guys have been on it today.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

<deleted this>

Actually I didn't pay much attention to this after last night, but things have changed.  We have a pretty good chance of heavy rain - again, later this afternoon.  Another litttle  MCV (system with severe possibilities) is heading this way from Ozona and will merge with the one that brought us the morning rain.  It looks like - for now - most of the severe weather will stay more or less south/east of us, but of course these things always seem to do what people don't expect (i.e. backbuild into our area).   We could get a severe storm or even a tornado here/there, although the air has stabilized a bit since the first wave, but mostly the potential for big rain remains though dinner, especially when this other thing comes over in a few hours.  Once again, the I-10 corridor looks to be most at risk but we are definitely in the soup.  Could be some brief flooding this afternoon.

That freakin' Euro model is something else.  It's really been getting better and better.  I'm starting to trust it.

Again the models right now are predicting the same thing as today for Saturday.  It could flip-flop and be a dryout or this again.
Today is gonna be our May amounts plus some - easily.  Watch it.

Finally, NWS most recent: 

The Trailing MCV is forecast with
good model agreement to overtake/absorb the lead MCV later this
morning and tighten up as it reaches the eastern Hill Country by
late afternoon. Model QPF amounts have collectively shot up to match
some of the higher numbers advertised by the more alarming NAM model
from yesterday. The presence of the lead MCV appears to be steering
the focus farther south than what was seen in yesterday`s model
solutions, so areas along and south of I-10 from San Antonio to
Schulenburg should be seeing the most dramatic shift in PoPs for
today. With the rapid increase in QPF amounts among several models,
the pattern has gained the attention of WPC which has now included
Central TX into a MRGL risk of excessive rainfall. Some of the finer
res solutions are showing pockets of 5+ inch amounts, but some of
these models can way over amplify the rainfall potential. If this
signal continues as new runs arrive and pinpoint the same areas, we
may need to consider a small scale flash flood watch. For now, we
have locally heavy rainfall mentioned in the forecast and continue
to monitor. In addition to the heavy rainfall potential, the storms
have a MRGL threat to reach severe levels with large hail and
damaging winds possible from the strongest storms.
Edited by phdhorn
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crash_davis

crash_davis 23114

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Yeah, I think they really underestimated the strength of the storm, but it happens.. However, the initial sweep-in is where the more severe part and that's long past us. most of that severe weather as long as initial line which is sweeping slowly E/NE. I think most of ATX is behind it now.

I did notice yesterday that the Euro model was trending way up IN rain amts., especially for Saturday, and was beginning to trend up even for this. But it's far more than anything was predicted, most was around 1/2" or so.

But hey, it happens, better more rain than we thought than the usual vice versa.

Saturday also has a severe risk but it's low right now. More of a day like today as a supposedly stronger storm moves in, but this one looks like it's been pretty good.

this is the kind of shit that happens when you take a few months off. get your shit together. we need you to be on point!

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