2020 Rain Thread

[gmr548 16580]

Man it is 100% prime grade evening weather in the centex right now. 

It was a beautiful afternoon/evening. Pleasantly surprised as I thought it was supposed to be like 90 and humid today. Got muggy as balls as the sun went down.

[ROFL BOX 6649]

Humid now here in the 78620.

[Hate 20108]

Central Texas is forecast to see a lot of rain over the next week.  

[gsoda3 3262]

excellent. 

[miguelito 11266]

[irishtexan 11521]

I mean, it wouldn't be memorial day weekend if we didn't have a fuckton of rain.

[Orange&White 5528]

1 hour ago, irishtexan said:

I mean, it wouldn't be memorial day weekend if we didn't have a fuckton of rain.

Was going to leave a nearly identical response.

[Trey3216 15346]

1 hour ago, irishtexan said:

I mean, it wouldn't be memorial day weekend if we didn't have a fuckton of rain.

It’s like Mother Nature forgot that ‘Rona cancelled the Byron Nelson 

[NorthLoop 14214]

Good. Wife wants to go to Guadalupe State Park and I really don't wanna go. Sorry honey, it's gonna rain. 

[ROFL BOX 6649]

2 hours ago, irishtexan said:

I mean, it wouldn't be memorial day or Labor Day weekend if we didn't have a fuckton of rain.

Labor Day always with the heavy rain maybe 5 days ahead of the weekend with a shitload of rain to create small ponds & scatter the dove.

[miguelito 11266]

I can see lightning off to the west. Let's see if that line of storms can hold together.

[NorthLoop 14214]

Had a rando unexpected little storm in the middle of the night

[ROFL BOX 6649]

1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

Had a rando unexpected little storm in the middle of the night

Samesies.

[UnivTex34 1763]

Hey @ROFL BOX, if you are the type of roofer to chase storms, Lubbock got hammered last night. Golfball/baseball size hail. My folks lost all of their sky lights, and one of the roof vents according to my dad, and his company truck is likely totaled. Storm went right through the center of the city.

[phdhorn 6224]

High over us movin' east, allowing that line to creep into the area.

Wetness returns late Sat. or early Sun. into Memorial Day as is State Law.

Could be another wet one.  Probably not severe one.

[Guest Lobo]

What do you think tomorrow (Friday) is gonna be like?  We have a few outdoor things planned.  I'm prepared for rain on Sunday/Monday, but was hoping to get some stuff in on Friday. 

thanks

[Biff Tannen 45691]

Where the fuck did that come from?  And now it's going to rain for the next week?

[Hate 20108]

As we get a little closer to the “event”, the numbers have changed a little bit. There is still quit a bit of rain forecast for the Centex region.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1590072688

[Guest Lobo]

My rain gauge only had .2" just now but it rained steadily over our house from 1am to almost 6am and I've got inch deep pools of water all over the patio/yard.  I dunno. 

Anyway, worried for tomorrow morning.  Oldest girl's little graduation ceremony is outside.  I say ceremony, they're gonna get out of cars one at a time, get a little cap 'n gown and "diploma" take a picture with their teacher who'll be standing on the other side of a protective screen/guard deal that's put parallel to them so you can't really see it in the photo.  and of course family and friends are coming out of the woodwork to act offended they're not invited to this.  Newsflash, nobody else was invited before Covid-19, sure as shit ain't inviting you now.  Preschool graduations are for mom and dad (and maybe grandparents).  /rant & good vibes for no rain. 

In other news, after a very slow and quiet start to the season...the mosquitoes in my yard have become most angry.  

[Lerka Lerka 1087]

Hate mosquitoes. 

[Guest Lobo]

Bold statement.  So of course it poured last night just hours after I did another garlic treatment (wife won't let me use the heavy duty industrial shit).  I can still smell the stuff though which is good and I doused all low hanging branches so hopefully it'll slow drip down throughout the day.  But then I setup a couple of buckets of water with heavy-duty murder mosquito dunks as well.  So our littlest one has a water table to goof around with.  We moved it inside to her playroom but she still thinks of it as being filled with water and playing with dolls and stuff inside of it.  So this morning she hightails it for one of my buckets placed by my neighbor's moronic bamboo garden and starts mumbling, "wawa table, wawa table."  My wife gave me this look like, "Hey asshole, you gonna stop her before she gets her hands in there?"  I was honestly confused at 6:45am and realized, "Oh shit, that's a bucket of poison to a 20 pound baby."  I forget that the only group that loves a random container of standing water more than mosquitoes are 14 month olds.  /csb    

Anyway, rain thread would be just as good as any thread to share mosquito murder tips.  Anybody got 'em?  Because we were fortunate all the way through mid-May, but there here, they're hungry, there's more rainfall coming, and despite being home more to see the errors of their ways---my neighbors continue to make stupid decisions with regard to proactive prevention.  

[phdhorn 6224]

Weather situation is kind of complex, and that makes it hard to predict. One thing that's for sure is chances of rain are going to start going up pretty steadily from Friday afternoon thru Monday. Chances of heavy rain existall four of these days, but especially the latter two, and the possibility of daytime diurnal thunderstorms developing Friday through Tuesday or even Wednesday are pretty good.

However, it's Austin with a forcefield and it never rains except in Bee Cave, so I would expect maybe one day of the 4 or so to be particularly rainy, probably Sunday or Monday. Models are all over the map so it's hard to say but I think the weather will be fine through Friday early afternoon. Then whether storms develop, have to wait and see what the models say.

Since I'm paid hundreds of thousands $$ on here to make a guess, I'd say mostly dry with a good possibility of a late-afternoon storm Friday and Saturday, and then starting Saturday night it's pretty much going to be a wet two days up to Memorial Day.

Nothing looks severe right now, rain totals could get high if things follow through the way they look in one scenario. Or not.

if you've been following this carefully, you'll see it's a lot of words for "who knows?"

Again though, I think Friday and early Saturday more dry than wet, Sunday and Monday vice versa. Back as things settle.

[Spaulding Smails 1553]

I enjoyed an awesome lightning show last night at the ranch (western Kimble Co).  I had to make a quick day trip up there to take care of a few things.  It was ridiculously hot for May.  About 6:30, the wind shifted and the clouds started to build off to the west.  Awesome lightning to both the north and south.  We had a few drops of rain, but not even really a trace.  15 miles north of us at Ft McKavett, they had 1.3".  Go figure.  

[South Austin 52515]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

Weather situation is kind of complex, and that makes it hard to predict.

This is code for "We all know phdhorn is usually full of shit."  But in all seriousness, a friend told me she heard an NPR podcast discussing how the significant decrease in commercial air flights caused by COVID has impacted weather forecasts because meteorologists rely on data collected from those flights.  Have you heard anything like this?     

[phdhorn 6224]

40 minutes ago, South Austin said:

This is code for "We all know phdhorn is usually full of shit." 

Redundant sentence is redundant.  Do not need the "we all know".  And what's with this "usually" shit?

 

Quote

But in all seriousness, a friend told me she heard an NPR podcast discussing how the significant decrease in commercial air flights caused by COVID has impacted weather forecasts because meteorologists rely on data collected from those flights.  Have you heard anything like this?     

That's code for "I'm in the back drinking vodka and flipping a coin, and I know lately my predictions have sucked, but now I have something to blame it on so I don't lose my job."

Yes, actually.  However the stuff coming from airlines is 1) more mid-level atmospheric stuff which helps, but really doesn't move the bar much on forecasts.  Not gonna be any worse than they usually a.. er, not gonna really mess things up; and 2) not affecting intra-U.S. weather as much, since they're still doing a lot of flying, just with like 3 people on board.  More global effect.

In other news no one cares about, we got an Omega Blocking going on with the weather the next few days.  It's not really that rare, but when it happens, it's interesting and could lead to lots of rain.  I can explain it to you in one or both of two analogies:

1)  You screwed up and got your flight seat assignment late.  So you're in the middle seat in between a really fat lady with a support skunk, and a douchebag wearing an OU shirt and picking his nose then talking to you gesturing aggressively with said boogered-up finger.

-or-

2)  Pretty much represented spot on by a cross section of what goes on in the male ballsac.

Either one, I await your vote.  Until then, Omega Blocking is in control this weekend!

Edited May 21, 2020 by phdhorn

[Guest Lobo]

Aren't "Omega Blockers" what you and Armybrat take to maintain your socially awkward erections at community events?  

[miguelito 11266]

Omega blocking, huh?

 

[phdhorn 6224]

Study this, you might want to put your face right up against the screen to absorb it.  This is Omega Blocking.  Some of you might find it interesting... even... strangely arousing...

 

I'll be back tomorrow.

[Hate 20108]

35 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Study this, you might want to put your face right up against the screen to absorb it.  This is Omega Blocking.  Some of you might find it interesting... even... strangely arousing...

 

I'll be back tomorrow.

Do they still call it an Omega block when there are two low's in the east and west with a high over the middle of the country?  Like we had this past week?

Edited May 22, 2020 by Hate

[jimmyjazz 45963]

I woke up this morning and happened to catch one of my sprinkler system's soaker hoses spewing a geyser across the front lawn.  Near as I could tell, it was going for most of its 20 minute cycle, so I have that several hundred gallon bill bump to look forward to.

Translation:  it's gonna rain like a motherfucker this weekend because I already soaked my yard.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

Study this, you might want to put your face right up against the screen to absorb it.  This is Omega Blocking.  Some of you might find it interesting... even... strangely arousing...

 

I'll be back tomorrow.

Hurricane Thujone?

[Dewey 3286]

Explains the 80% chance every day next week here on the coast, thought my weather app needed an update. Here's to the rain washing the tourist away 

[ROFL BOX 6649]

16 hours ago, UnivTex34 said:

Hey @ROFL BOX, if you are the type of roofer to chase storms, Lubbock got hammered last night. Golfball/baseball size hail. My folks lost all of their sky lights, and one of the roof vents according to my dad, and his company truck is likely totaled. Storm went right through the center of the city.

Yeah, I heard that.  I have connections up there & if I can help them out, I would absolutely provide the best total package for them.

Please send me a PM with some info.  This applies to ANY of y'all that has a roof need for anywhere in Texas.  Think of it this way:  You've gotta pay a deductible one way or the other, so why not get hooked up with someone that will give a great replacement?  *State law as of 01 Sept. 2019 requires proof of deductible payment.

I'm headed to El Paso in around 2 weeks to have a preliminary meeting on a project, so I do get around.

[ROFL BOX 6649]

16 hours ago, UnivTex34 said:

Hey @ROFL BOX,

Also, I don't so much "chase" as I do go to where I have connections or referrals.  I don't like to get on the crazy train of door knocking total strangers unless we're going to clear shingle wrappers out of a neighbor's yard, "Chet from 3 doors over said to say "hi", etc.

[Jersey Man10 3535]

Getting some rain up here near Lampasas.

[InkaUtexas 25952]

48 minutes ago, ROFL BOX said:

 so I do get around.

That is what a certain mother says. 

Good on you for offering to the group. 

[phdhorn 6224]

12 hours ago, Hate said:

Do they still call it an Omega block when there are two low's in the east and west with a high over the middle of the country?  Like we had this past week?

Yes.  The Omega comes from whatever's squeezed in the middle (hence the Ω (Omega) character, which represents a high ridge or low trough stuck in the middle of two large systems of the same type).  But that of course happens pretty much daily as weather systems travel W→E across the country.  What happens is at times the atmosphere gets loopy and systems stall and sit there.  It can happen long term (usually known as part of an "Oscillation" which is something that can e.g. keep the NE bottled up in frozen weather in the winter).

Why Rain Forecasts This Weekend Are A Mess
Anyway, in this case what's happening short-term.  Traffic is temporarily blocked and the weather will move slowly.  The low to our west, a pretty strong one, will eventually float or break off and very s-l-o-w-l-y meander across Texas, probably stalling for a day or two, or not wandering much, putting a good amount of rain somewhere.  Plus, it's drawing up Gulf moisture (the open end of the "Omega") so it won't burn itself out.

Models are all over the map, because they're trying to figure out just where the hell this low will park or wobble and drop rain.  Our area is back pretty near the bullsye - that is some spots forecasting 7"-8"!  And this isn't "Jumpin' Jim Spencer, it's the more conservative NWS.  Anyway, most of CenTex is on the clock for at least 2"-3" but in the right conditions/spots it can be 3-4 times that.  There is no way to know where the thing will stop, but models are starting to agree that 1) it's looking more and more like lotsa rain for a good bit of the eastern half of Texas, and 2) some spots will flood.  This is looking like a 3-4 day event as well, starting later on Saturday, running through maybe Wed., with Memorial Day the peak.  It could be an almost tropical few days here.

Or it could do shit.

That's the nature of trying to predict 1) where a cutoff low will go, and 2) how it plays out (i.e. where the most rain is within the system).  The models are starting to align (which is really the way out of a coin flip to begin to get a handle on what might happen) and they're saying we're gonna get rain.  But cutoff lows (this one due to blocking) are a total bitch for meteorologists, because 1) they're so freakin' unpredictable, and 2) they often pack a lot of rain, so meteos get a lot of shit if they don't nail it ("Why didn't you FORECAST that a 500-foot wall of water would wash my house away???"), as opposed to getting a "weak" system wrong ("OMG why didn't you tell me I'd get hit with .25" of rain in 10 minutes???").

So things are trending wet and I think it'll be wet.  But there's no way to know how much, and exactly where.  Just wear your rubbers when doing any fun activity and you'll be covered.  I'll be back tomorrow to see where the models are by then.

Oh yeah, this isn't supposed to be a severe event, but don't rule it out... with daytime heating it's always possible this time of year. 

Lates. 

[miguelito 11266]

[Guest Lobo]

^

Oh, I was just boiling a roast.  

[Wally Pryor 5261]

5 years ago tomorrow.  Ugh.   We rib Spencer but he was on point that entire night and morning.   But so was PHD.

Really great piece from Texas Monthly:

https://features.texasmonthly.com/editorial/wimberley-floods-memorial-day-weekend-2015/

[Hate 20108]

Here is the latest from the NWS.

 

[LonghornJones 837]

That article is tough to read. I cannot imagine being in that scenario with my family.

[Hate 20108]

That article is tough to read. I cannot imagine being in that scenario with my family.

I saw an interview with McCombs where he recalled that night. I’m not sure how he made it through the interview, but I was absolutely amazed by him. I don’t know how anyone ever recovers from something like what he experienced, but based on that interview he seems to have handled it as well as anyone ever could. God bless him.

[LonghornJones 837]

The decisions that had to be made in those last seconds terrify me.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

27 minutes ago, Hate said:

I saw an interview with McCombs where he recalled that night. I’m not sure how he made it through the interview, but I was absolutely amazed by him. I don’t know how anyone ever recovers from something like what he experienced, but based on that interview he seems to have handled it as well as anyone ever could. God bless him.

Yeah, he was a rock.

Remarried and just had a daughter last month in Corpus. 

[someguy 1508]

wow, what a brutal read.  I knew the outlines of the story, but had never read the blow by blow.  

I got to meet McCombs a few times, and went to the wedding (my wife is friends with the bride).  I'm glad I hadn't read this article before then, because there is no way I would have stayed composed.  I smiled extra when I saw the birth announcement a week or so ago.  You wish any new family well, but man, if anyone deserves happiness the rest of their life, it is him.  Every time I start to imagine what that must have been like my mind just shuts down.

[Orange&White 5528]

Come on, @phdhorn. Park that shit over Marble Falls for a day or so and let's get the last 9' feet to have Lake Travis back to "full" again.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Orange&White
feet, not inches.

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, Orange&White said:

Come on, @phdhorn. Park that shit over Marble Falls for a day or so and let's get the last 9" feet to have Lake Travis back to "full" again.

9" going to make any hole that gaping "full" again?  Dammit, I had something for this /archer/southaustin'smom

[Orange&White 5528]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

9" going to make any hole that gaping "full" again?  Dammit, I had something for this /archer/southaustin'smom

My bad. 9'.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

26 minutes ago, someguy said:

wow, what a brutal read.  I knew the outlines of the story, but had never read the blow by blow.  

I got to meet McCombs a few times, and went to the wedding (my wife is friends with the bride).  I'm glad I hadn't read this article before then, because there is no way I would have stayed composed.  I smiled extra when I saw the birth announcement a week or so ago.  You wish any new family well, but man, if anyone deserves happiness the rest of their life, it is him.  Every time I start to imagine what that must have been like my mind just shuts down.

Yeah, brutal doesn't begin to describe it.   I don't think they ever found 2 of the kids.    

I couldn't tell from the article how far McCombs had to walk / crawl after getting out of the water.  The article says the woman's house "was 10 miles off the main road" but it's not clear what that means.