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phdhorn
phdhorn

Hello there. So here's the deal:  although I'll be posting much less frequently than before, I want to stop in here to say that I'll try to continue (er, pick back up) posting in here or a few weat

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Well everybody is different, but mine are generally in the morning.   But that's not important right now.

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Noah way.

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Mighty fine

Mighty fine 169

Posted
Posted
I remember going up that following Wednesday to volunteer / clean.    The sight of those gargantuan cypress trees uprooted will always be embedded in my mind.   You'd stand next to the root balls and feel like a very tiny person.
That was my exact thought as well. It was almost like a fleet of dozers came through and pushed up hundreds of tree/brush piles along the banks and sand bars.
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

I remember going up that following Wednesday to volunteer / clean.    The sight of those gargantuan cypress trees uprooted will always be embedded in my mind.   You'd stand next to the root balls and feel like a very tiny person.

South Austin's mom feels pretty tiny when standing next to my balls.  

 

But yeah, that shit is horrifying.  Almost like driving into the shitstorm that was Harvey from Waco with our fleet of boats and supplies.  I remember having to stop at The Woodlands, and seeing nothing but water and concrete overpasses in front of us.  The sight of the San Jac River on Monday morning makes my stomach turn.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

I remember going up that following Wednesday to volunteer / clean.    The sight of those gargantuan cypress trees uprooted will always be embedded in my mind.   You'd stand next to the root balls and feel like a very tiny person.

Yeah, I don't usually play "weather nanny" and tell people what to do or stuff (maybe if I get paid I would) but suffice it to say that with a forecast like we have over the next 4-5 days, if you plan on going anywhere NEAR moving water or small lakes between now and at least Wednesday, you had better be damn sure to keep contact with weather info.

You know what they say, "Turn around, don't be a dumbass stupid sonofabitch with no regard for others and too idiotic to even remember how to walk, because you ignored the weather saying, that won't ever happen to me, and prove yourself utterly unfit to inhabit a human form."  Or something like that, I forget exactly how it goes.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted (edited)

I ain't gonna be told by no weather queer to steer clear of moving water.  Don't restrict my freedom you literal wet blanket!  

Now, serious question---when I'm drowning in my Cutlas Supreme---will my mask buy me any time under water?  

And now really serious---thanks for coming back and sharing your CenTex weather insights.

Edited by Lobo
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105152

Posted
Posted
Just now, Lobo said:

I ain't gonna be told by no weather queer to steer clear of moving water.  Don't restrict my freedom you literal wet blanket!  

Now, serious question---when I'm drowning in my Cutlas Supreme---will my mask buy me any time under water?  

The proper archaic ride for cavalier drowning is the Chrysler Cordoba.  Jesus, people.  Get it right.

Chrysler-Cordoba.jpg

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Deej said:

Does it count as drowning if they had COVID?

Only if the COVID drowned with him.  But if they're anything like sperm, those little bastards will probably fire ant raft their way halfway up Lake Austin.

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rage-a-holic

rage-a-holic 4402

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

The proper archaic ride for cavalier drowning is the Chrysler Cordoba.  Jesus, people.  Get it right.

Chrysler-Cordoba.jpg

My dad had one in burgundy. No t-tops though, and it died before I turned 16. Thankfully he traded up to a Caddy, which my HS dates appreciated.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Lobo said:

I ain't gonna be told by no weather queer to steer clear of moving water.  Don't restrict my freedom you literal wet blanket!  

Now, serious question---when I'm drowning in my Cutlas Supreme---will my mask buy me any time under water?  

And now really serious---thanks for coming back and sharing your CenTex weather insights.

Teddy K just gonna drink his way through the river 

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RPM

RPM 26322

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JFC this is the neverending storm. Bowie got hit with a tornado around 8 Friday night and it's been wave after wave of heavy rains, wind and hail. My garage flooded for the first time ever. Good thing I just had my storm windows replaced. We got turbofucked for about 8 hours. Knocked out my DSL and sat for several hours. All I had was OTA TV and sketchy cell data. It was hell. Came dangerously close to breaking out my potato soup bucket.

storm52220.PNG.e1162f2e7e3097747da4036c9698684b.PNG

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austingirl

austingirl 2191

Posted
Posted
On 5/22/2020 at 9:44 AM, Wally Pryor said:

5 years ago tomorrow.  Ugh.   We rib Spencer but he was on point that entire night and morning.   But so was PHD.

Really great piece from Texas Monthly:

https://features.texasmonthly.com/editorial/wimberley-floods-memorial-day-weekend-2015/

I remember when this happened but had not read the Texas Monthly article till now. I fell asleep last night thinking about it and woke up this morning thinking about it. I can't even imagine what everyone in that house went through and what McComb still must be going through. I'm glad to see that he has remarried and had a new baby.

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txhorns

txhorns 2409

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Posted

Burkburnett had a tornado just west of town last night that luckily didn't do any real damage.  Multiple hail storms came through.  There was softball size hail all over town.  Many instances of cantaloupe size hail all over town.  The house in the news story above wasn't the only house that had a piece of hail go completely through the roof but that was all at houses that are already shitty.  Researchers from multiple universities and even NASA have been around town this morning asking for any hail from the storm last night that was saved/frozen.  Sounds and looks like we had a hail storm for the record books.

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/22/2020 at 9:44 AM, Wally Pryor said:

5 years ago tomorrow.  Ugh.   We rib Spencer but he was on point that entire night and morning.   But so was PHD.

Really great piece from Texas Monthly:

https://features.texasmonthly.com/editorial/wimberley-floods-memorial-day-weekend-2015/

If anyone ever gets themselves in this horrible situation, open the doors, let the water in. The added weight will help keep the house on the piers. Not sure it would of helped here, but multiple instances of it savings houses in Galveston during the 1900 flood. Plus I’m pretty sure if saved my parents life during Harvey.  The bayou turned into a roaring river and rose 26ft, putting 3ft Into their elevated house that ended up being an island in what looked like the Missippi.  Those from the old site might remember me telling of almost floundering a boat trying to save them due to currents. 
 

seems like another lifetime.  I still wake up in cold sweats dreaming about it from time to time. 

Edited by Xian
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austingirl

austingirl 2191

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Xian said:

If anyone ever gets themselves in this horrible situation, open the doors, let the water in. The added weight will help keep the house on the piers. Not sure it would of helped here, but multiple instances of it savings houses in Galveston during the 1900 flood. Plus I’m pretty sure if saved my parents life during Harvey.  The bayou turned into a roaring river and rose 26ft, putting 3ft Into their elevated house that ended up being an island in what looked like the Missippi.  Those from the old site might remember me telling of almost floundering a boat trying to save them due to currents. 
 

seems like another lifetime.  I still wake up in cold sweats dreaming about it from time to time. 

God, I'm sure I'd be waking up in cold sweats for the rest of my life too. I'm glad everyone in your family is ok.

The other thing I keep thinking about from that article is how so many of the 911 callers had no idea what address they were at because they were vacationers. I've never thought about that before but I'm damn sure committing future vacation addresses to memory from now on.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Mesoscale Convective Complex moving along South Texas toward the SAT-AUS corridor.  Most of the punch from this was due to the uplift in the Mexican mountains, but I think they'll hold together at least in some of our area, if so they'll be here between 11 and midnight.  Nothing severe (right now) in this, if anything a good line of showers then quiet the rest of the night.

As for the longer term, models slightly trending downward but again, what day is it?  Could change again.  Anyway most of Sunday will be okay until daytime heating takes over, look for stuff after lunch.  I'll be back with system update tomorrow, see what this low is gonna do, if able to, at this point.

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

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11 hours ago, austingirl said:

I remember when this happened but had not read the Texas Monthly article till now. I fell asleep last night thinking about it and woke up this morning thinking about it. I can't even imagine what everyone in that house went through and what McComb still must be going through. I'm glad to see that he has remarried and had a new baby.

Our family spent a weekend in a rental at 2700 Flite Acres Road in Wimberley in 2015 during spring break.  We had the grand kids with us and I've always wondered if that rental home was washed away.  Looking on Google Earth I can't really tell.  

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6649

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Posted
9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Jesus christ you see the hole in the roof?  ROFLBOX porn. 

No happy ending unless I can assist on their claim.  & I haven't had a decent insurance job in awhile.  Not thirsty, bur definitely willing to assist.  We work statewide.

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6649

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3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

 I think they'll hold together at least in some of our area, if so they'll be here between 11 and midnight.

Currently 0033 hrs & my burn pile is still smoldering out back.  Cut down a shitload of cedar branches & other scrubby crap, started a burn around 1900 & assumed it would be sizzled out by rain.

 

Nuttin', honey.

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6649

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Posted
2 hours ago, BevoSwag said:

Our family spent a weekend in a rental at 2700 Flite Acres Road in Wimberley in 2015 during spring break.  We had the grand kids with us and I've always wondered if that rental home was washed away.  Looking on Google Earth I can't really tell.  

I'm gonna suggest "no".  I did gutters on a house (that also does a separate B&B) @ 2212 Flite & from what I recall, all of the houses in that area were fairly well set back from the Blanco.  I specifically asked the homeowner about the water level & he showed me the exact spot where the water rose to for them - damn close, but didn't touch their slab.

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6649

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Just now, atomheartbevo said:

She also said something about "if you want the fruit, you have to climb the tree" and I'm still working that out in my head.

Mom plays in the WNBA.  Obviously this total equation means she's a switch hitter.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89686

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, austingirl said:

The other thing I keep thinking about from that article is how so many of the 911 callers had no idea what address they were at because they were vacationers. I've never thought about that before but I'm damn sure committing future vacation addresses to memory from now on.

Yeah, you do that, while I'm going to memorize the addresses downstream.

spacer.png

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Bit of a change in the weather.

1) The trough that's forming from the Omega-squeezed low is forming, but slowly.  It will still make its way to somewhere over us, but new readings indicate that today and tomorrow (Memorial Day) are less likely to be all wet, and more p.m. stormy, typical of late spring/early summer.  New model runs have gone from 7"+ to maybe 4"-5" max anywhere.  But again, what day is it?  They could easily ramp up again, especially for the latter part of the forecast week, where things are less certain due to that event being farther out and less exact. 

I'd say today will be pretty dry until diurnal heating gets going, and lift is kicked up.  Any time mid-afternoon or later.  So for the most part I think today will be okay to be outside (if you like ungodly warm, humid weather).  Cooking etc. I think is a safe bet for most of the early afternoon.  But storms should get going later on, so that should be the plan today.

Tomorrow again should be like today - dry more or less until afternoon.  Then storms arrive somewhere after heating gets going, all the way into late night.

2) The low is still forecast to meander and park over us, but models have trended down on the rain, and, maybe most significantly, the bigger chances for flooding have moved to the later part of the week (Thurs-Fri), not the next 2-3 days.  Doesn't mean things could go nuts today or Monday, just less likely beyond afternoon/evening TS's.

It's going to be cloudy, humid, and a little cooler once the cloud cover gets to be pretty nonstop between now and Friday.

The CYA in all of this is how many times around Memorial Day have we seen "something explode out of nothing" and get tons of rain?  It could happen, so never, ever at this time of year here brush it off.

But I think it'll go according to above - dry daytimes, storms coming in later afternoons.  Probably thru Tuesday, then as is typical, if the low parks and stays strong, more periods of tropical type training or at least long-lasting rain, which can lead to local flooding.  You can probably do outside stuff but keep the radar handy.  I never, ever want to stick hard to a prediction in Centex at the end of May.  I'll put this about 70% of how it'll play out between now and Tues.  Beyond that I'll probably have an update.
Late.

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stone oak

stone oak 639

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Bit of a change in the weather.

1) The trough that's forming from the Omega-squeezed low is forming, but slowly.  It will still make its way to somewhere over us, but new readings indicate that today and tomorrow (Memorial Day) are less likely to be all wet, and more p.m. stormy, typical of late spring/early summer.  New model runs have gone from 7"+ to maybe 4"-5" max anywhere.  But again, what day is it?  They could easily ramp up again, especially for the latter part of the forecast week, where things are less certain due to that event being farther out and less exact. 

I'd say today will be pretty dry until diurnal heating gets going, and lift is kicked up.  Any time mid-afternoon or later.  So for the most part I think today will be okay to be outside (if you like ungodly warm, humid weather).  Cooking etc. I think is a safe bet for most of the early afternoon.  But storms should get going later on, so that should be the plan today.

Tomorrow again should be like today - dry more or less until afternoon.  Then storms arrive somewhere after heating gets going, all the way into late night.

2) The low is still forecast to meander and park over us, but models have trended down on the rain, and, maybe most significantly, the bigger chances for flooding have moved to the later part of the week (Thurs-Fri), not the next 2-3 days.  Doesn't mean things could go nuts today or Monday, just less likely beyond afternoon/evening TS's.

It's going to be cloudy, humid, and a little cooler once the cloud cover gets to be pretty nonstop between now and Friday.

The CYA in all of this is how many times around Memorial Day have we seen "something explode out of nothing" and get tons of rain?  It could happen, so never, ever at this time of year here brush it off.

But I think it'll go according to above - dry daytimes, storms coming in later afternoons.  Probably thru Tuesday, then as is typical, if the low parks and stays strong, more periods of tropical type training or at least long-lasting rain, which can lead to local flooding.  You can probably do outside stuff but keep the radar handy.  I never, ever want to stick hard to a prediction in Centex at the end of May.  I'll put this about 70% of how it'll play out between now and Tues.  Beyond that I'll probably have an update.
Late.

Translation: we aren’t getting shit but typical afternoon t storms and it’s gonna be hot and humid as f otherwise. 

No Way What GIF

Seems like anytime these precip models go apocalyptic for rain in Central TX with these systems, it doesn’t really pan out. Again, I pity the weathermen around here.

I do remember laughing at the Harvey precip models in 2017 which were spot on...scary shit.

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