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2020 Rain Thread

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Severe?

Maybe.  As the maps show above, we're kinda in the middle of an area forecast for severe weather.  That low that ended up parking NE of us, sparing us of the "wet" eastern side resulted in less rain the past 2-3 days than if it stalled in W. Texas (although the thing that came through yesterday packed a lot of rain, and rain totals even in that 1-2 day event has put 2/3 of Austin area rain sites well above average for May and the year).

So while we are on the "dry" side, this is a pretty good low, and so being west of its center we're going to get a small disturbance thrown down by the main low (these little disturbances "orbit" it like planets around the sun).  The disturbance will clash with warm, moist air and throw up storms about 3-4 p.m. in our northern counties.  The most "worrisome" time for severe weather is the first few hours after formation, when the storms can rotate - not nec. tornadoes but rotating storms can get pretty nasty.

Being "in the bullseye" doesn't mean all of us are more likely to get severe weather, or that it will be more widespread - as usual severe weather will usually be confined to a relatively small area.  But chances are good for hail/high winds... slightly less for weaker tornadoes.  The greatest risk here will be from about 4-5 p.m. to about 9-10.  Anything after that should be less mild.

Then tomorrow that low finally weakens and gets caught up in the Jet again, and moves NE into the Mid-Atlantic.  4-5 days of sun for us.

Guess we'll see.  Keep an eye on the radar later this afternoon, watch the line/storms N/NW of us moving S/SE.  Have a nice day.

Edited by phdhorn
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phdhorn
phdhorn

Hello there. So here's the deal:  although I'll be posting much less frequently than before, I want to stop in here to say that I'll try to continue (er, pick back up) posting in here or a few weat

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Well everybody is different, but mine are generally in the morning.   But that's not important right now.

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Noah way.

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Hate

Hate 20126

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From the Storm prediction Center this morning.

day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif

day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif

day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

 ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The main severe-weather threat today will be over central Texas and
   vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes
   are possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   Split flow will characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS
   today, with the main feature being a cyclone centered initially over
   southeastern OK.  The associate 500-mb low should drift
   northeastward over the Ozarks through the period, while cyclonic
   flow persistently covers much of the area from the southern/central
   Plains to the southern Appalachians, lower Ohio Valley and much of
   the Gulf Coast.  To its southeast, a weak but persistent shortwave
   trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from western/southern
   GA southeastward toward the northern Bahamas -- will move northward
   and weaken further.  An associated low/middle-level vortex --
   centered just offshore from CHS -- will move generally northwestward
   to upstate SC, western NC and southwestern VA through the period,
   while gradually weakening inland.

   At the surface, a cold front was analyzed from extreme northern ON
   across western Lake Superior, becoming wavy and quasistationary
   through an elongated area of low pressure over southeastern MN, IA
   and western MO, then to western AR and north-central TX, to a low
   near INK. Only minor/mesoscale movements of the baroclinic zone are
   expected away from convective outflow, given the rather unchanging
   pattern above.

   ...Central TX and vicinity...
   Scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon across parts of
   central TX, over and near the Hill Country, some of which should be
   supercells offering the full spectrum of severe hazards. This will
   include the threat for very large/damaging hail.  Convection may
   evolve into one or more forward-propagational clusters this evening
   into tonight, with the severe threat becoming more weighted toward
   convective wind, though hail and some tornado threat may remain.

   This activity will occur in a field of strong northwesterly mid/
   upper-level flow around the southwestern rim of the cyclone aloft,
   with 500-mb wind speeds of 55-65 kt over the region.  Preconvective
   surface winds mostly will be weak, but backing through the afternoon
   into a southerly to southeasterly direction.  This will yield near-
   maximum directional shear, and contribute to 45-60 kt magnitudes of
   effective shear in support of supercell potential.  Though forecast
   soundings reasonably depict small 0-1-km hodographs, given the
   modest ambient boundary-layer speeds, storm-scale and boundary
   processes also may support a tornado risk, especially when
   convection is still relatively discrete.  The lengthy, relatively
   straight character of forecast hodographs also suggest some
   potential for left-moving storms that would travel eastward in this
   flow regime, while also offering large hail.

   A field of -13 to -15 deg C 500-mb temperatures was analyzed last
   night at 00Z, and is expected to persist over the area through
   today, as part of a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates.  Beneath
   that, expect surface dew points in the 50s over western parts of the
   area, transitioning to mid-upper 60s southeastward out of the Hill
   Country and onto the coastal plain.  This will support max afternoon
   MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in the Hill Country and 2000-3000 J/kg over
   lower elevations.  A lack of substantial MLCINH may yield a large
   number of thunderstorms in this environment, with severe threat most
   concentrated in the enhanced-risk area this afternoon into evening.
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gmr548

gmr548 16588

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From the Storm prediction Center this morning.
day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif
day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif
day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL  TEXAS...  ...SUMMARY...  The main severe-weather threat today will be over central Texas and  vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes  are possible.  ...Synopsis...  Split flow will characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS  today, with the main feature being a cyclone centered initially over  southeastern OK.  The associate 500-mb low should drift  northeastward over the Ozarks through the period, while cyclonic  flow persistently covers much of the area from the southern/central  Plains to the southern Appalachians, lower Ohio Valley and much of  the Gulf Coast.  To its southeast, a weak but persistent shortwave  trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from western/southern  GA southeastward toward the northern Bahamas -- will move northward  and weaken further.  An associated low/middle-level vortex --  centered just offshore from CHS -- will move generally northwestward  to upstate SC, western NC and southwestern VA through the period,  while gradually weakening inland.  At the surface, a cold front was analyzed from extreme northern ON  across western Lake Superior, becoming wavy and quasistationary  through an elongated area of low pressure over southeastern MN, IA  and western MO, then to western AR and north-central TX, to a low  near INK. Only minor/mesoscale movements of the baroclinic zone are  expected away from convective outflow, given the rather unchanging  pattern above.  ...Central TX and vicinity...  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon across parts of  central TX, over and near the Hill Country, some of which should be  supercells offering the full spectrum of severe hazards. This will  include the threat for very large/damaging hail.  Convection may  evolve into one or more forward-propagational clusters this evening  into tonight, with the severe threat becoming more weighted toward  convective wind, though hail and some tornado threat may remain.  This activity will occur in a field of strong northwesterly mid/  upper-level flow around the southwestern rim of the cyclone aloft,  with 500-mb wind speeds of 55-65 kt over the region.  Preconvective  surface winds mostly will be weak, but backing through the afternoon  into a southerly to southeasterly direction.  This will yield near-  maximum directional shear, and contribute to 45-60 kt magnitudes of  effective shear in support of supercell potential.  Though forecast  soundings reasonably depict small 0-1-km hodographs, given the  modest ambient boundary-layer speeds, storm-scale and boundary  processes also may support a tornado risk, especially when  convection is still relatively discrete.  The lengthy, relatively  straight character of forecast hodographs also suggest some  potential for left-moving storms that would travel eastward in this  flow regime, while also offering large hail.  A field of -13 to -15 deg C 500-mb temperatures was analyzed last  night at 00Z, and is expected to persist over the area through  today, as part of a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates.  Beneath  that, expect surface dew points in the 50s over western parts of the  area, transitioning to mid-upper 60s southeastward out of the Hill  Country and onto the coastal plain.  This will support max afternoon  MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in the Hill Country and 2000-3000 J/kg over  lower elevations.  A lack of substantial MLCINH may yield a large  number of thunderstorms in this environment, with severe threat most  concentrated in the enhanced-risk area this afternoon into evening.

This is tailor made for the forcefield to fuck on. It's had a rough month and needs to warm up for summer cockblocking.
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Guest Lobo

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1 hour ago, Wally Pryor said: 

..SUMMARY...
   The main severe-weather threat today will be over central Texas and
   vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes
   are possible.

 

Well, it is May 27. 

That means it's Derrick May Day!  Saw him play in the outfield in 1992 and 1993 on May 27.  His Jersey number was 27, and of course...surname, May.  

It's a holy day for Cubs fans born on May 27.  And of course, with that comes the apocalyptic storm of hail, tornado, wind, and Covid-19.  

These are the Days! 

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utee94

utee94 15835

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

I will go put my truck in the garage.  That will keep the rain away.

Yeah, same here.  I've got ladders and tools all over the garage, that I used for installing the hardtop hoist for my wife's new Jeep.  So now I have to clean all that crap up and stow it away properly, so I can get my truck back into the garage.  

Which will ensure zero rain or hail occurs in NW TravCo.

Edited by utee94
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15349

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29 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Around 10:30 AM, that spotty disorganized cluster of "eh" moving SE towards Waco started turning into a big blob of "oh shit".  Now it's splitting into two.

It was a pretty mean storm where both parts of it were fully energized.  A third one back-built and put a nice storm on Gatesville as well 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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That severe complex trying to improve aggyland is gonna miss us obviously to the east.

However, what we need to look at is the stuff now building out by Abilene and Ballinger.  That's gonna be really nasty the next 1-2 hours, hopefully it'll crap most of itself out by the time it gets to us.  I think that line will start to fill in to our north as well.  Here we go...

Edited by phdhorn
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105168

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Posted
Just now, phdhorn said:

That severe complex trying to improve aggyland is gonna miss us obviously to the east.

However, what we need to look at is the stuff now building out by Abilene and Ballinger.  That's gonna be really nasty the next 1-2 hours, hopefully it'll crap most of itself out by the time it gets to us.

Back in the day, I was close with two girls from Ballinger.   The really hot one slept with one of my friends.  She was crazy, but hot, and apparently lots of fun.  The other one was pretty cute, but she didn't decide to accept my numerous overtures until I had decided to become exclusive with the gal who is now my wife.  I thought I missed out on something.  But she turned out to be batshit crazy.

Lesson: Ballinger is a source of feminine woe.  Steer clear.  Or not.  Your call.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Yeah, the line is building and it's just north of us, forming in Burnet across to Williamson and N. Travis, etc.  Next 2 hours should be fun.  Current storm building around Marble Falls looking like it'll slice SE through the northern half of Austin, unless it backbuilds to the SW.

Edited by phdhorn
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deter

deter 314

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2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Around 10:30 AM, that spotty disorganized cluster of "eh" moving SE towards Waco started turning into a big blob of "oh shit".  Now it's splitting into two.

POOR Falls county. Nobody gives a crap.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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15 minutes ago, 1978horn said:

How is it looking in Dripping in a couple hours?  End of the year school parades are supposed to start then.  It is all blue skies right now and the forecast I look at says not until 7 or 8.  Will that hold?

Not looking good.  A big complex is moving into San Saba heading SE.  Might sweep north of Drip but I don't think so.  Estimate it'll get here between 6 and 7.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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the storms coming over North Austin actually have weakend, I don't think there's going to be much, but it yes it can get still very windy and you could get some pea-size hail here or there but I think the severe threat is almost over for our area.

Not so much West in southwest of us tho, looks like a tornado is about to ramp up not affecting ATX.

Edited by phdhorn
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