2020 Rain Thread

[MissingInAction 25113]

Is that Donald Glover?

[Deej 76842]

Just a few drops in 78753 this evening. Just walked out front to this. Gorgeous. 

 

[Anastasis 23478]

Yeah. Beautiful sunset. 
 

[Guest Lobo]

Every once in awhile, I remember why we're sometimes called "The Violet Crown"  

Well, not us degenerates in South Austin, but you get the idea.  Have some rep for a great pic

[Updawg 2274]

Was a great sunset

[Modessit 5603]

This guy...

 

 
... looks like the guy 2nd from left.

[UnivTex34 1763]

If we are posting sunsets, 78748 checking in...

 

[ROFL BOX 6649]

Yeah. Beautiful sunset. 
 

"Burnt Orange sunsets are proof that God is a Longhorns fan."



*Tornadoes are proof that God hates okies.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

"Burnt Orange sunsets are proof that God is a Longhorns fan."



*Tornadoes are proof that God hates okies.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

I’m not religious, but I know this is a fact.

[South Austin 52521]

7 hours ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I’m not religious, but I know this is a fact.

"I believe in the soul, the cock, the pussy, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.  And I believe OU sucks."

-- Crash Davis

[Chet Steadman 940]

Dang, those 7-day models sure changed quickly.  Friday night, neither KXAN nor KVUE had any rain in their forecasts. 

Now it looks like 40-70% for the next several days.  

Edited May 31, 2020 by Chet Steadman

[Catpfish 618]

The rain has been so hit and, mostly, miss this year.  I saw late last week that Camp Mabry is at 19.40" for the year and ABIA is at 20.96"

I'm a little east of Pflugerville any my weather station is 13.60" for the year.  The tank is dropping already.

[Chet Steadman 940]

Zero percent chance of rain today.  Yet it’s raining and lightning downtown.  Weird.

But I’ll take it.  

[Trey3216 15349]

1 minute ago, Chet Steadman said:

Zero percent chance of rain today.  Yet it’s raining and lightning downtown.  Weird.

But I’ll take it.  

Lucky bitches.   We’re running 3.5 weeks here without a drop.  That ain’t good 

[InkaUtexas 26006]

Watched the cell move just to east of me. Fucking bastage. 

[Orange&White 5528]

In the 360@2222 section of 78750, we had the wind pick up and blow shit off the walls on the patio and cushions all around the yard and then dark clouds. Lasted about 8 minutes. Not. A. Drop. This ain’t Bee Caves.

 

[Guest Lobo]

Only lasted from 1915-1945hrs, but it was almost one inch.  Here off MoPac just south of the river.  Worked out well we just happened to shut the sprinklers off this week.  

[phdhorn 6224]

High moved a bit east of us so flow came off of the Gulf.  There was enough from that disturbance in S. Texas to allow afternoon heating showers to pop up.  One got close to me then fizzled, that's the usual course.

Another chance for that happening tomorrow, then not gonna for 2-3 days.  Small chances open up again on the weekend.  They could increase.  Doubtful though.  If so I'll be back.

[Chet Steadman 940]

Interdasting.   

[hornian 5219]

Just got 1.59” from about 6:00 am to 6:45 a.m.  Didn’t even know rain was in the forecast. 

[gmr548 16580]

78759 - the three LCRA gauges that sort of triangulate me range from 0.92" to 1.78"(that's a big difference within a mile or two). No idea it was gonna rain this morning. What a nice surprise.

[TwiceHorn 31507]

That was completely weird in the Metroplex.

Started partly sunny with 20% chance of rain after 4PM.  Well it stayed sunny until sundown.  At some point in the afternoon I looked and evening chances had increased to 40%.

About 830, not long after sundown, we're in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning with main risk 60mph gusts.

By 10 we're under a flash flood watch and got two or three solid hours of soaking rain.

Seems like most forecasts these days are "overpredictions," well this was a pretty severe "underprediction."  At least there wasn't much of anything damaging.

[texhorn 351]

Got 0.4” in 78633. Will take anything at this point.

[swraith 347]

I am happy with the 0.8 inches per the LCRA rain gauge.

[Trey3216 15349]

Got about 1-1.5 this morning in Hewitt.  ‘‘Twas nice.  My veggie garden is loving it 

[jimmyjazz 45985]

Had over an inch in 15 minutes at 360/2222.  Plus, lightning fucked up every TV and my wifi shit.  Thanks, force field.

[Blotto 23560]

 

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, I need PhDhorn to make some sense of this.  It looks like 40-60%+ starting tomorrow through Friday night.  I am glad that might happen but I'm wondering are we talking about midday and midnight spurts (that's what she said), or just steady drizzles for 10 hours/day?  I know it's hard to say but that's why he gets paid the big bucks.  

[Hate 20117]

Here are the projected totals through Friday from the GFS model:



And here are the projected totals for the next week from the NWS.

[EuroHorn 3265]

Rain season is officially canceled 

 

[Bash Riprock 1695]

Llano Estacado

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by Bash Riprock

[Wally Fairway 5568]

4 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Llano Estacado

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at radar this morning, forcefield may be challenged today 

[Iceman 2719]

8 hours ago, Hate said:

Here are the projected totals through Friday from the GFS model:





 

That spot in the far northern panhandle is desperately needed.  Felt so good to see significant rain last night.

I guess it might be too much to ask for it to come without hail, right?

Edited June 23, 2020 by Iceman

[boknowstecmo 216]

Texas is getting its rain on before that Saharan dust gets here. Impressive storm right now.

[Trey3216 15349]

13 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

Texas is getting its rain on before that Saharan dust gets here. Impressive storm right now.

Yep, and it’s  barely moving. 

Edited June 23, 2020 by Trey3216

[Radical Larry 28648]

[South Austin 52521]

Impressive rain this morning.  Should wash all that coronavirus right out of Austin.

[stone oak 639]

That was impressively tropical-ish

[phdhorn 6224]

They called it from last night - the complex was in the northern panhandle and came in right on schedule.  Euro model predicted a good amt.  As usual it was correct.  Most spots in Austin now are above June avg.  Just like that.

A lull next 2-3 days then rain chances ramp up again pretty well near/on the weekend.

In the blastfurnace thread, quoted this 10 days ago:

Not sure what they're smokin' over there, but the CPC 2-week is often really really good.  Like now.

[Rip76 4944]

 

Increasing Heavy Rainfall Potential (this evening). - Jeff Linder

Short range model trends are starting to paint a concerning picture for this evening as a slow moving low level boundary moves into the area and helps to focus a west to east oriented line of thunderstorms. Recent trends and high resolution models are suggestive of potential training bands of heavy rainfall this evening into the overnight hours.
 
Given parameters in place including deep tropical moisture, slowing storm motions, and a good feed of low level flow off the Gulf, excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible and this will lead to rapid street flooding. If storms anchor or slow over an area for a few hours total could quickly reach 4-6 inches with higher isolated amounts.

[Post Oak 20249]

good rain this AM in Waco.  Hope we get another round this weekend.  

[Hate 20117]

From the NWS:
 

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ213&warncounty=TXC201&firewxzone=TXZ213&local_place1=3 Miles WSW The Woodlands TX&product1=Flash+Flood+Watch&lat=30.1458&lon=-95.5311#.XvI85iU1glQ

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436-438-240130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0002.200624T0000Z-200624T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-Waller-
Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland
Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern Liberty-Coastal
Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal
Galveston-Matagorda Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Brookshire, Pearland, Caldwell, Stowell,
Liberty, The Woodlands, Dickinson, Devers, Anahuac, Coldspring,
Bellville, Bay City, Trinity, Shepherd, Columbus, Sugar Land,
College Station, Hempstead, Dayton, Huntsville, Baytown, Crockett,
Wharton, Conroe, Missouri City, Pecan Grove, Palacios, League City,
La Marque, Bryan, Lake Jackson, Mont Belvieu, Old River-Winfree,
Pasadena, Freeport, First Colony, Clute, Navasota, Livingston, Texas
City, Brenham, Waller, Eagle Lake, Galveston, Houston, Prairie View,
Groveton, Sealy, Rosenberg, Friendswood, Winnie, Alvin, Ganado,
Corrigan, El Campo, Mission Bend, Edna, Cleveland, Angleton,
Somerville, Weimar, and Madisonville
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
  southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central
  Texas, Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas,
  Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal
  Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend,
  Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula, Grimes, Houston, Inland
  Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Inland Matagorda,
  Madison, Matagorda Islands, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk,
  San Jacinto, Southern Liberty, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington
  and Wharton.

* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning

* A line of strong thunderstorms will develop over southeast Texas
  this evening and slowly move eastward through Wednesday morning. A
  combination between the slow moving nature of the thunderstorms,
  back building/training of thunderstorms, and recent rainfall over
  the area has led to an increasing threat of flash flooding.
  Rainfall rates may reach one to three inches per hour or more at
  times. There remains some uncertainty in the timing and location
  of the line of strong thunderstorms. On average, two to four
  inches of rain is expected through tomorrow morning with isolated
  areas of six to eight inches possible.

* These storms with heavy rainfall may be capable of flooding
  roadways. Low water crossings may flood becoming impassable and
  dangerous. Small creeks and bayous may see minor rises.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[Hate 20117]

[Post Oak 20249]

Rain moving into Mclennan Country from the NE which is kind of rare to see.

[Anastasis 23478]

Beautiful evening. 

[phdhorn 6224]

Low chance of hit/miss spotty showers today/tomorrow.  Better chance of widespread rain Friday - likely to get another round almost like Monday.  No severe right now in the forecast, that might change.

[HouTex 1885]

This rain will never end.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

On 6/24/2020 at 7:50 AM, phdhorn said:

Better chance of widespread rain Friday - likely to get another round almost like Monday.  

And dirty rain, at that. 

Sounds like such fun.

[ROFL BOX 6649]

Headed from Drip to EL-P in the AM.  What's my outlook for craptacular weather the whole way?

 

Coming back Sunday.

 

[Anastasis 23478]

Sahara dust cloud sunset showing out.