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2020 Rain Thread

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phdhorn
phdhorn

Hello there. So here's the deal:  although I'll be posting much less frequently than before, I want to stop in here to say that I'll try to continue (er, pick back up) posting in here or a few weat

clapclapclap
clapclapclap

Well everybody is different, but mine are generally in the morning.   But that's not important right now.

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Noah way.

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6649

Posted
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Wives / Stupid Shit, etc.:
Wife said "I saw on FB where there was hail reported".

Me: "Friend or news resource?"

Her: "I said "Facebook". What do you think that means?"

Me: "You DO realize there are news channels that have FB pages, right?
How the eff am I to know if you're referring to a friend or KEYE?"

Her: tone

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

Posted
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23 minutes ago, ROFL BOX said:

Wives / Stupid Shit, etc.:
Wife said "I saw on FB where there was hail reported".

Me: "Friend or news resource?"

Her: "I said "Facebook". What do you think that means?"

Me: "You DO realize there are news channels that have FB pages, right?
How the eff am I to know if you're referring to a friend or KEYE?"

Her: tone

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk
 

hail be serious business. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

So today will be like this:

Most of the waking day - hit/miss showers, breaks of sun, cooler (highs in low-mid 80's today), humid.
Late late night (later than last night) storms firing up west of us come through again.  This time the trigger is a mild cool front that'll sag down after midnight and provide needed lift.  Chances good for scattered heavy rain, severe storms, for most of us not that but another definite rain event.

While we're at it:

Tuesday again a repeat of Monday, with late night/early morning potent storms heading in.

I suspect much outdoor stuff can be done today, but as usual for Memorial Day around here (did you get that?  Good.) keep radar/communication handy after noon, when diurnal heating can cause - well, can cause what it caused yesterday.

About half of the reported rain sites within a 30 mile radius of Austin have totals in 24 hours that exceeded even the "wet" models' predictions.

So yeah, it rained in Austin, and often does.  Also the NWS forecasts were pretty accurate - no one was calling for more than a 30% chance of rain, and hadn't for the previous 36 hours when the models were updated, before Sunday afternoon.  It really wasn't supposed to rain much until Sunday afternoon/evening.  Spot.On.  Good work to those guys.

Looks like though Round Rock and N/NE of Austin got kind of a donut hole, not much rain relatively speaking (.50" avg.).  Don't worry, you got a good shot tonight.

The rest of the week is hit/miss - that cutoff low looks now to be parked more east in Texas, which means Austin will be on the "dryer" side.  Of course at this point it doesn't much matter, we got the rain, but even being on the drier side, we can still get rounds like we had last night.  This extends at least into Wednesday, and even lingers almost to next weekend.

May rain totals in Austin are now almost double average, and rain is our wettest month of the year.

Have a nice, dry day.  Watch out for your cornholes tonight.

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1778

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this video shot off the Hwy  84 bridge Saturday evening between Post and Snyder, it the Double Mountain Fork of the Brazos (usually a dried up stream) that feeds lake Alan Henry (Justiceburg Tx). Needless to say Lake Alan Henry is 2' into its flood plain. Next Lake down the river is Possum Kingdom I believe

 

 

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Homercles

Homercles 10205

Posted
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On 5/23/2020 at 3:38 PM, txhorns said:

Burkburnett had a tornado just west of town last night that luckily didn't do any real damage.  Multiple hail storms came through.  There was softball size hail all over town.  Many instances of cantaloupe size hail all over town.  The house in the news story above wasn't the only house that had a piece of hail go completely through the roof but that was all at houses that are already shitty.  Researchers from multiple universities and even NASA have been around town this morning asking for any hail from the storm last night that was saved/frozen.  Sounds and looks like we had a hail storm for the record books.

I haven’t been back there since I graduated high school...and have even more reasons to stay away forever.  Why the hell do you live there...boomtown babes stay the same age?

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Doc Reeves

Doc Reeves 6434

Posted
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4 hours ago, ROFL BOX said:

Power was hit & miss last night, finished off the dishes via Milwaukee power.

We headed to Austin for overnight AC.5ef2d28851f75e96beae07a3eb7f6265.jpg

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+
 

see kids, how he included a rack in his pic? 
 

take notes. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

This little thing will slip thru some of Austin.

Then, as forecast, the low has moved up to the NE in Texas, putting us at only a low-moderate risk of rain each day, mostly in the afternoons when heating builds up storms.

Maybe a few showers this week here/there thru Friday, then rain goes away.

Bye.

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6649

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SquishMitten said:

I feel like an invisible storm passed over. Lost power a couple times this afternoon. There was stuff on the radar and distant thunder, but it was still mostly sunny. Very weird.

Drunks running into power poles.

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Hate

Hate 20108

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There is a decent chance for hail and maybe a tornado over a good part of Central Texas tomorrow.

day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif

day2probotlk_1730_wind.gif

..Central Texas...
Weak low pressure development is expected to occur over the Texas
South Plains area early Wednesday and then drift eastward into
central Texas with time, as a lobe of vorticity -- and associated
mid-level speed max -- rotate southeastward around the upper low.
As this occurs, low-level flow will turn southerly across roughly
the southern half of Texas, with a weakly baroclinic convergence
zone expected to evolve in a west-northwest to east-southeast
orientation across central Texas by afternoon.

Northward advection of higher theta-e air at low levels beneath
rather steep mid-level lapse rates will combine with daytime heating
to yield moderate afternoon destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE
climbing into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This will support storm
development by mid afternoon near the low and associated convergence
zone, as DPVA spreads southeastward across central Texas.

Given favorable shear expected to evolve with time (southerly to
south-southeasterly low-level winds veering/increasing to 50-plus kt
from the northwest at mid levels), storms should quickly
organize/acquire rotation. As such -- and aided by the increasingly
unstable environment -- very large hail will be possible with the
initial supercellular storm development, along with risk for locally
damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. With time, some upscale
growth of storms is possible, into a mix of both cellular and banded
modes. Damaging wind potential may increase into early evening with
some potential for southeastward propagation of convective bands,
before the activity peaks, and then begins to diminish, into the
evening hours.

 

 

 

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6649

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Hate said:

There is a decent chance for hail and maybe a tornado over a good part of Central Texas tomorrow.

day2probotlk_1730_torn.gifday2probotlk_1730_wind.gif

..Central Texas...


Given favorable shear expected to evolve with time (southerly to
south-southeasterly low-level winds veering/increasing to 50-plus kt
from the northwest at mid levels), storms should quickly
organize/acquire rotation. As such -- and aided by the increasingly
unstable environment -- very large hail will be possible with the
initial supercellular storm development, along with risk for locally
damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.

tenor.gif?itemid=12149984&fbclid=IwAR1PH

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6649

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

ROFL is the ambulance-chaser of the Weather World. ;)

 

 

You should see the stuff from my roofing sales groups on FB.

There is an actual group & sales training program called "Sky Diamonds".  I try to work more as a craftsman vs. production #'s where a lot of these guys just hard sell all of their prospects.

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6649

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Sky Diamonds. These motherfuckers. 

Seriously; they run videos as "motivational speakers" while running powerboats up & down lakes or the intracoastal, floating in a swimming pool with a tiny umbrella drink, etc.  I personally don't like hail as it brings a lot of storm chasers to the area & some of them like it here well enough to stick around thereby bringing competition.  High wind tends to damage far fewer houses in overall volume & it isn't as easily argued vs. "is that damaging hail or is it simply SOME hail?  Is it widespread across this roof?".

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