So uh..Austin Subway*, Light Rail Expansions and $3.2 - $10.2 Billion

[royiv 9044]

1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

Why do we spent $1.2 billion on the convention center expansion? Cities want tourists, conventions, festivals, concerts. We subsidize things because politicians are vain and want big business and celebrities to want to come to Austin. Is that worthy of the tax dollars? 

No tourists are bypassing Austin because it doesn't have light rail. When was the last time you picked a vacation destination based on the light rail? Convention centers bring in bed and sales taxes. Light rail does not. 

[TKthunder2 4959]

6 minutes ago, royiv said:

No tourists are bypassing Austin because it doesn't have light rail. When was the last time you picked a vacation destination based on the light rail? Convention centers bring in bed and sales taxes. Light rail does not. 

Many convention locations are selected in locations where there is easy access. I’ve seen convention proposal reviews that have bypassed Austin due to our lack of rail. To say rail has no impact is foolish and is overstating its impact. As with many issues, its benefits fall somewhere in the middle and it should not be a pure black/white topic.

[Neonmoon 38126]

4 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Houston’s light rail is pretty sweet in the areas it services. 

Rail works. Build more. 

[royiv 9044]

2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Many convention locations are selected in locations where there is easy access. I’ve seen convention proposal reviews that have bypassed Austin due to our lack of rail. To say rail has no impact is foolish and is overstating its impact. As with many issues, its benefits fall somewhere in the middle and it should not be a pure black/white topic.

Austin misses out on conventions because the convention center is too small, not because of a lack of right rail. In a world of ROI to city coffers, expanding the CC would pay off pretty quickly, light rail not so much.

[Texas Jeff 1918]

On 3/16/2023 at 1:35 PM, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Alternatives?

1. Kill the Red Line and don't even think about starting the Green Line (rail to Manor).  In a 2004 presentation, Cap Metro described the Red Line as costing $60 million and having possible ridership of 17,000 daily by 2025.  The eventual cost was over $100 million, which is cheap for rail, but 2022 ridership was around 1,300 per day.  Ten times less than the proposal.  One round-trip counts as two boardings, so the Red Line is moving 700 people to and from work each day.  That is the population of an elementary school.

2. Or, make a deal with the Robinson Ranch people.  The Red Line goes through a lot of empty space when crossing the Robinson Ranch.  Turn the ranch into a really dense, tall city with 2-4 rail stops connecting parts of the city.  There is plenty of room to design a rail-first city.  We already have the rail.  No one lives there.

3. Kill or reduce any Cap Metro route with fewer than 10% of seats occupied.  I'm not setting a high bar here.  If a 40 person bus is regularly passing a station with fewer than four occupied seats, you don't need a bus.  You need a minivan.  This rule might prune a large portion of Cap Metro's bus system, but at least it would focus their efforts on areas of the system that are working.

4. Expand the Pickup zones to touch the rapid bus routes.  We have Pickup in our neighborhood (a circulator shuttle like you see at airport parking lots).  You have to be picked up and dropped off in your "zone", which for us mostly covers residential areas.  It doesn't go to commercial areas or the rapid bus routes.  The north/south rapid bus routes are pretty good.  Make the pickup zones bigger to cover more local destinations and give people a chance to take Pickup directly to a rapid bus station.

5. Enhance services for seniors and the disabled.  There are areas of Cap Metro that pay taxes but have no service.  My parents are getting older and can still drive, but they live in one of these areas.  Eventually they are going to need Uber to get around.  Cap Metro could help people that have limited transportation options by providing point to point service.  They partially do this today, but not for their entire service area.

6. Forget about Project Connect until current bus systems are well used along the route.  You can get to the airport today from large parts of Austin by taking one of the rapid bus routes to central Austin, and then riding the 20 bus to the airport.  This is the route that the rail would follow.  Service already exists.  If you really want to build rail so that you can get buses out of traffic, just reserve lanes for buses.  Cap Metro used to provide express buses from the airport to downtown/campus.  They canceled the route because of low ridership.  That should be a warning of what rail ridership to the airport might look like.

Today, Cap Metro has no incentive to build efficient systems.  They get tax money regardless of their performance.  So we get inefficient systems that are hard to kill once in place.  They have no reason to offer honest projections about cost or ridership, so we get the rosiest, dreamiest projections possible and should not be surprised when they are off by 10x.  Whatever alternatives we pick should be backed up by data and able to change if it's not working.

[Neonmoon 38126]

No one wants to ride a bus. They get stuck in traffic or wrecks. Slowed by red lights, etc. 

[CooterBrown 17735]

A couple of weeks ago, city council passed a plan that allows only multi family construction within a half mile radius of the existing and proposed rail stops, overriding existing residential zoning. It was a big deal in my hood (Allandale) because the understanding of the plan is that any existing single family homes can’t be sold as single family homes in the future to force density in these locations. I don’t know how much of that explanation is true or just a bad NIMBY interpretation.

[billfromlaketravis 11290]

23 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Houston’s light rail is pretty sweet in the areas it services. 

Meh. Most of the red line runs pretty sparsely populated areas (Downtown, Medical Center, Astrodome), and Metro didn't knock down people's houses to build it. It's pretty money if you work downtown and need to go a doctor's appointment in the Medical Center and you don't want pay $30 for parking. Also valuable during Rodeo. 

Very few people use it to commute. 

And then there's the "unhoused" that ride the train all day for A/C and wifi. Ticket enforcement was pretty stringent when they finished the red line, but I don't think I've seen Metro cop check a ticket for the better part of a decade. 

I do like it better than the bus, and it's definitely more comfortable than a bus. 

[TKthunder2 4959]

14 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

6. Forget about Project Connect until current bus systems are well used along the route.

So a West Campus route would have your full Support? That bus was always jam packed.

Also for the red line, I don’t think you can throw a single line out there and call it a failure. The way rail works is if you building more access points and destinations that line will get used more frequently which is the goal.

If they want to increase riders they need to make the stops in higher impact areas. The new stop at Q2 Stadium is exactly what they should continue to focus on.

 

Here’s my quick mark up, but obvious places to realign the route are:
Lakeline Mall/HEB Center
Parmer and somewhere between Tamayo/Dallas Dr
McNeil just West of McNeil High/YMAC
51st East of 35 (near the shopping center)
Mueller near the drafthouse

Add those routes and you’ll see ridership increase some. Add more routes around downtown and to UT and you’ll see even more.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3009]

On 3/18/2023 at 1:47 PM, LCHorn said:

Houston’s light rail is pretty sweet in the areas it services. 

I just wish that fat fuck John Culberson and the NIMBY Karens in Afton Oaks hadn't killed the University rail line in Houston or else id be sitting pretty on a transit line right now riding the rails everywhere..all the H-town sports ball games could have been just a rail ride and a short walk away. 

[Orange&White 5501]

21 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

A couple of weeks ago, city council passed a plan that allows only multi family construction within a half mile radius of the existing and proposed rail stops, overriding existing residential zoning. It was a big deal in my hood (Allandale) because the understanding of the plan is that any existing single family homes can’t be sold as single family homes in the future to force density in these locations. I don’t know how much of that explanation is true or just a bad NIMBY interpretation.

I think you got bad info.

The last thing that I was aware that passed was back In December, and it simply added more height allowance and less parking for commercial lots of certain sizes that front a designated "Transit Corridor" in exchange for any reconstruction being required to include at least ONE low income housing unit.

But maybe something new did get passed and I just haven't seen it, but what you stated sure sounds like something that would originate on NextDoor.

Edited March 20, 2023 by Orange&White

[CooterBrown 17735]

Just now, Orange&White said:

I think you got bad info.

The last thing that I was aware that passed was back In December, and it simply added more height allowance and less parking for commercial lots of certain sizes that front a designated "Transit Corridor" in exchange for any reconstruction being required to include at least ONE low income housing unit.

But maybe something new did get passed and I just haven't seen it, but what you stared sure sounds like something that would originate on NextDoor.

Yeah, that's why I added the disclaimer. It was on March 9th.  I did email my city council member to clarify what it was and was sent this:   https://services.austintexas.gov/edims/document.cfm?id=404051

 The info going around was that they were going to apply that to all the Burnet and Lamar bus stops as well and that threw my 'hood into a tailspin. The memo does specifically state it is for rail stops only.

 

[Texas Jeff 1918]

18 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

So a West Campus route would have your full Support? That bus was always jam packed.

Can you just add another bus to the route?  I have two kids on the UT campus now that ride the bus.  Their big compliant is that the bus driver takes a 15 minute break in the middle of the route while the students just sit there.

West Campus's density is a good place to think about rail.  I *am* concerned that Project Connect will make West Campus a good spot for young professionals and retirees to live, and they will price out the students.

[LCHorn 2559]

It’s been awhile, but I’ve originated multiple loans for single male engineers (always Indian) that prefer to owner occupy a West campus condo to something north more proximate to Apple and adults.  I wonder how that works out for them…

[Deej 76197]

6 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

I *am* concerned that Project Connect will make West Campus a good spot for young professionals and retirees to live, and they will price out the students

That's already started happening. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

9 hours ago, LCHorn said:

It’s been awhile, but I’ve originated multiple loans for single male engineers (always Indian) that prefer to owner occupy a West campus condo to something north more proximate to Apple and adults.  I wonder how that works out for them…

[Guest]

So there is an open house today about scaled down Project Connect. But I don't understand the article. It says there are five options being discussed. But all five of these are small little rail lines -- not the huge "vision" that was sold to voters. Is this just one portion of the plan... or has the thing literally gone from a citywide transit system to one small line?

https://www.kxan.com/traffic/traffic-projects/project-connect/project-connect-debuts-5-scaled-down-light-rail-options/

PC really disgusts me. It was passed based on a vision that any common sense person could see was pie in the sky. It's downright fraudulent from what I can tell. You can't sell an idea on providing funding for a 30-story skyscraper in downtown and then get a steel manufactured building in Pflugerville.

 

[royiv 9044]

On 3/9/2020 at 1:58 PM, Biff Tannen said:

I say let's fucking go for it.  This is light years better than the last proposal where they wanted Riverside to Highland Mall.

Three years later and it the revised plan won’t even get you as for north as Highland Mall.

Reading some of the comments circa three years ago is really funny. I don’t see how anyone familiar with Austin thought this thing was going to happen as planned. It’s not like costs are going to go down as they go back to the drawing board. 
 

So to recap:

-30 miles of light rail promised. Reality: You’ll be lucky to get 10 miles.

-Underground transit tunnel through downtown. Reality: Nope.

-Green line. Reality: Nope.

-Gold line. Reality: Nope.

[YGIFS 19445]

Other than the fact that the bond structure made zero fucking financial sense.  That was kinda my first clue as our commission reviewed it against other transporation/mobility bonds of years past.  But I kinda know finance.  

I'm not an engineering expert by any stretch of the imagination.  But I knew we were truly in deep shit beyond the pale when the fucking downtown line didn't even account for the Capitol View Corridor in the initial design/capital projects cost phase.  You know that thing, that every two-bit junior architect designing strip centers in Buda fucking knows about.  I wish I coulda been there when the survey team was out there and asked one another, "Hey what's that tall pink dome up there?  Ah, who cares...let's grab a taco."  

[DalTxHornFan 3071]

Lest we forget about Austin's demonstrated expertise in executing complex rail transportation projects...

[StassneyHorn 6440]

No reason to have rail stops in west campus when you can get off on Guadalupe or Lamar and look for a west campus bus

[YGIFS 19445]

Or just do what normal college kids do, walk and stare at the yoga pants in front of you the whole way.  Lulelemon just saved this city hundreds, Michael!  Hundreds!  

[Biff Tannen 45151]

4 hours ago, royiv said:

Three years later and it the revised plan won’t even get you as for north as Highland Mall.

Reading some of the comments circa three years ago is really funny. I don’t see how anyone familiar with Austin thought this thing was going to happen as planned. It’s not like costs are going to go down as they go back to the drawing board. 
 

So to recap:

-30 miles of light rail promised. Reality: You’ll be lucky to get 10 miles.

-Underground transit tunnel through downtown. Reality: Nope.

-Green line. Reality: Nope.

-Gold line. Reality: Nope.

Well I thought it was a very lovely story...at the time.  Fuck me right?

Whatever, I'm probably moving out of this place before anything remotely even gets started anyway.

[TKthunder2 4959]

4 hours ago, royiv said:

Three years later and it the revised plan won’t even get you as for north as Highland Mall.

Reading some of the comments circa three years ago is really funny. I don’t see how anyone familiar with Austin thought this thing was going to happen as planned. It’s not like costs are going to go down as they go back to the drawing board. 
 

So to recap:

-30 miles of light rail promised. Reality: You’ll be lucky to get 10 miles.

-Underground transit tunnel through downtown. Reality: Nope.

-Green line. Reality: Nope.

-Gold line. Reality: Nope.

None of the plans appear to connect to the redline either…amazing 

[Orange&White 5501]

Y’all are all totally misunderstanding the new changes to ProjectConnect. That dipshit Paksen will be along shortly to defend it and tell you how much better the new improved plan will be.

[Orange&White 5501]

On 3/9/2020 at 11:44 AM, Pasken said:

Quoting this from back in the good old days when Paksen was sure this was going to come in looking beautiful, under budget and a utopian paradise.

[Orange&White 5501]

On 8/17/2020 at 9:53 AM, Pasken said:

The cap metro CEO's approach to this proposal was to design it from the bottom up to qualify for annual grants the federal transportation department gives out. Everything about the structure, funding, schedule, community participation has geared toward a painless and perfect qualification process for that money. Part of that process is to show a local match FIRST. That's how this works.

How’s the federal funding coming along? Good? Everything seems to be coming together real well for the plan. Congrats!

[YGIFS 19445]

"Placemaking Partnership Opportunities"  

That should have been another huge red flag.  That phrase doesn't mean anything.  

We're gonna sell $5bn worth of paper for no reason.  I remember laughing at Katy when she said, "AAA rated, always and forever."  We've already been downgraded once, and about to be again.  By the end of this decade, we'll be downgraded a couple more times.  You fucking people, what the fuck did you think was gonna happen?  How does one of the most well educated cities in America keep doing this shit?  

[Shaggy3.0 1694]

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

How does one of the most well educated cities in America keep doing this shit?  

Maybe "well educated" is over-rated?

 

[YGIFS 19445]

2 minutes ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

Maybe "well educated" is over-rated?

 

Yeah, I'm starting to get that vibe overwhelmingly.  

[Ghost of LL 15255]

On 3/18/2023 at 4:42 PM, TKthunder2 said:

 

The only thing that can significantly help is expanding I35 through downtown/UT (which is happening) building a true free bypass (which I agree should have happened a long time ago) to divert i35 through traffic. They can complete the 45 South “loop” (which I think is in the early stages of planning approval) reduce the lights on 360 (which is happening) but other than that there is not much more you can do with Mopac/183/290 than the expansions/tolls which is already done/in process.

 

The "removing lights on 360" is exactly like Project Connect.  A lot was promised, and not a damned bit of it is ever going to happen.  We'll spend a trillion dollars on consultants, engineers, and pretty diagrams for public consumption.  But I'm convinced that we'll never see a single light removed nor a single mile of track laid.

[Deej 76197]

12 hours ago, YGIFS said:

How does one of the most well educated cities in America keep doing this shit?  

Well-educated and common sense rarely intersect. 

[Orange&White 5501]

4 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

The "removing lights on 360" is exactly like Project Connect.  A lot was promised, and not a damned bit of it is ever going to happen.  We'll spend a trillion dollars on consultants, engineers, and pretty diagrams for public consumption.  But I'm convinced that we'll never see a single light removed nor a single mile of track laid.

The construction to remove two of the lights is already underway. The third and fourth lights are fully planned and designed, but won’t commence construction for a while. They will start moving utilities at Lakewood in about a year. The 360 lights are not a good example here but I agree with your overall sentiment.

[atomheartbevo 89015]

13 hours ago, YGIFS said:

  How does one of the most well educated cities in America keep doing this shit?  

  Because the people making a lot of the decisions or pushing out options are involved with developers?

[Texas Jeff 1918]

48 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

  Because the people making a lot of the decisions or pushing out options are involved with developers?

Also, people with a passion project push hard to get on commissions and boards and councils.  If a group wants more stuff, they organize and go lobby for more stuff.  When the city gauges "interest", these folks show up at meetings and speak for hours, repeating the same points over and over.  They dominate online polls and get appointed to groups that have power to recommend or not recommend more stuff.  Of course, they max out the stuff they want no matter what the cost.  Years later we end up building the stuff they "planned" and are surprised that the usage doesn't match the rosy predictions.

I'm not saying don't build more stuff, just wishing that the deciders would be more careful with money before committing to projects.

[WBT 20253]

It still had to pass on the ballot.

Of course when it doesn't pass, they just try, try again.  They only have to win best 1 out of x to get paid.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

The project costs have skyrocketed but money is already being collected from taxpayers. Where does that money go? Is there an Al Gore lockbox or general funds or to cap metro to blow on other stuff?

[DalTxHornFan 3071]

9 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

The project costs have skyrocketed but money is already being collected from taxpayers. Where does that money go? Is there an Al Gore lockbox or general funds or to cap metro to blow on other stuff?

[Ghost of LL 15255]

13 hours ago, Orange&White said:

The construction to remove two of the lights is already underway. The third and fourth lights are fully planned and designed, but won’t commence construction for a while. They will start moving utilities at Lakewood in about a year. The 360 lights are not a good example here but I agree with your overall sentiment.

I was perhaps being hyperbolic.  But my point still remains--that was voted on four years ago.  And the promise was that all lights were going to be removed.  But as usual, they're delayed and delivering less than was promised.

So what lights are they now going to remove?  Some of the big generators of congestion are at Lost Creek and Westbank, and I can't imagine how they would remove those lights.

Humorously enough, in the many years since that proposition was voted on, they actually added streetlights at Courtyard Dr. and on the driveway going into Apple.

[blacklab 11820]

Construction is underway at 360/westlake

[YGIFS 19445]

After all these years, they decide to start construction the week of the massive international sporting event at that very intersection?   Wtf

[Orange&White 5501]

28 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

After all these years, they decide to start construction the week of the massive international sporting event at that very intersection?   Wtf

It's been under construction for nearly a year.

[Orange&White 5501]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I was perhaps being hyperbolic.  But my point still remains--that was voted on four years ago.  And the promise was that all lights were going to be removed.  But as usual, they're delayed and delivering less than was promised.

So what lights are they now going to remove?  Some of the big generators of congestion are at Lost Creek and Westbank, and I can't imagine how they would remove those lights.

Humorously enough, in the many years since that proposition was voted on, they actually added streetlights at Courtyard Dr. and on the driveway going into Apple.

https://www.loop360project.com/projects.htm

You ain't lying. Since they approved the plan, they have added more lights and SURPRISE they are not in the scope of the light removal plan.

I think the 360/183 intersection is being improved as part of the new 183 north toll/expansion.

 

[Guest]

Thanks CM Pool! I think you really read the room that we're ready for rail... not that the overwhelming consensus is "WTF?"

[YGIFS 19445]

Good lord, even for Austin...that is beyond fucking tone-deaf.

"I hear you Austin.  You want services from your city such as transportation, hardware, justice, and things such as transportation!"  

[Texas Jeff 1918]

Austin Light Rail Plan, from 100 years ago -- this was in place from 1891 to 1940:

Not that different from the five plans that were unveiled last week.

More here if you'd like to read about it: https://notevenpast.org/austins-first-electric-streetcar-era/

[BrazilHorn 6564]

On 3/21/2023 at 11:31 PM, Orange&White said:

Y’all are all totally misunderstanding the new changes to ProjectConnect. That dipshit Paksen will be along shortly to defend it and tell you how much better the new improved plan will be.

For the low, low price of $5B more. 
Project Connect: We lose money on every rider, but make it up in volume!!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13310]

Always interesting how we measure light rail success by the profit(loss) the governing body realizes. I've yet to see the same profit/loss analysis on freeways, where the construction and operating costs produce a 0 return. 

Light rail can definitely be poorly implemented but it's an overall plus for a city.  It's also important for a multi-decade commitment to allow for continued system growth and rider behavior shifts.

[Orange&White 5501]

48 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Always interesting how we measure light rail success by the profit(loss) the governing body realizes. I've yet to see the same profit/loss analysis on freeways, where the construction and operating costs produce a 0 return. 

Light rail can definitely be poorly implemented but it's an overall plus for a city.  It's also important for a multi-decade commitment to allow for continued system growth and rider behavior shifts.

The difference between cost per lane mile driven on a freeway is orders of magnitude better then the costs of passenger miles travelled on a light rail system.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13310]

7 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

The difference between cost per lane mile driven on a freeway is orders of magnitude better then the costs of passenger miles travelled on a light rail system.

And that metric is chosen to specifically allow the highway to win. It's like saying UT basketball is 10x better than UT baseball due to points/runs scored.

When you factor in the costs of vehicles, fuel, externalities for highway usage, it's not so cut and dry.