The Senate Trial of Donald J Trump 2020

[SubliminalHorn 7012]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

WTF does any of this have to do with the Senate trial of Donald J. Trump?

Nothing. But the sycophants are going to try anything to obstruct and distract. 

[TXSG8R 3362]

7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

lol so it's perfectly fine for us to be training and providing logistical support to neo-nazis?  You act like Azov is some rouge group when it's run by Ukraine's Interior Minister and is incorporated into Ukraine's National Guard. Of course they are going to receive training and the Leahy vetting process is not intended to screen-out the majority of their membership.

Also, the fact that Azov has received US weapons through the US embassy is not a secret.

 

 https://medium.com/dfrlab/american-lethal-weapons-could-already-be-on-the-ukrainian-front-line-9dc6fd98630d

You aren't understanding.  The bulk of the US presence in the Ukraine is at a fixed training center.  The Ukraine sends in troops to be trained, which are then rotated out.  That's very different from direct support, which what the article tried to imply could be happening.  And as the article stated, the vetting process isn't perfect, just like the US process for vetting incoming soldiers for extremism isn't perfect.  They aren't strip searching them looking for nazi tattoos.  The Leahy act wont stop someone from hiding their membership in the Azov unit, you're right.  As the article states, nothing really will.  Its an active war zone, and they are training what the Ukraine sends them.  Its still not arming.  

The US weapons you're citing didn't come through the DoD military aid.  These were purchased through a direct sale.  Those weapons wouldn't fall under the rules passed by congress, since the Ukraine bought them directly.  

Quote

In December 2017, the Ukrainian defense trade company Spetstechnoexport announced that it worked with the American company AirTronic, based in Spring Branch, Texas, to supply PSRL-1 (Precision Shoulder-Fired Rocket Launcher, an “advanced version of the Soviet RPG-7”) weapons systems to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A contract, as the press release described, was drawn up in 2016 with approval from the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine.

 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13639]

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

WTF does any of this have to do with the Senate trial of Donald J. Trump?

SQUIRREL!

[yoladu 4191]

12 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

mob-boss mentality.  deny everything, never apologize, challenge everyone, pay no one, sue everybody.  surround yourself with yes-men.  if anyone gets out of line, they get whacked.  

i keep bracing myself for the first Putin style poisoning. Sincerely.

 

[Horn Dog 10188]

US govt sent aid to Florida for disaster relief.  At least one recipient of that aid was a neo-Nazi.  Why does the US govt support neo- Nazis????
 

Sincerely,

Concerned Troll asking questions 

[Nivek 17429]

one of my college professors had been a lower-level Nixon staffer.  
He once talked about Nixon's trip to China.  Several weeks before the trip, the staff prepared a 1000 page briefing book for Nixon.  Within a few days, Nixon returned it to the staff, with margin notes on most of the pages. 

Nixon was the last elected Republican that could read.

[David Dennison 19571]

2 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Nixon was the last elected Republican that could read.

"Rarely is the question asked, is our children learning?"

- George W. Bush

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

14 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

"Rarely is the question asked, is our children learning?"

- George W. Bush

Is they are or is they ain't?   

[henrygandorf 29230]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Ultimately, I don't think it makes any difference, but again Schiff being sloppy at a time when precision and understatement is the order of the day.

agreed.  however it would be interesting to see how it's addressed by the gop.

"as you can see from this screenshot, mr parnas was not even referring to this z, it was an entirely different z!  this case is nonsense!"

"what about the rest of the presentation?"

"uh, yeah, that stuff was also inaccurate and should be ignored, that was the last question, thank you very much."

[bolverk 30376]

2 hours ago, horn4life said:

So another day of Republican Senators pretending to listen, obvious facts presented and dismissed as meaningless because of a singular reason, an (R) behind the name.  I guess the only thing I can take heart in is that if the shoe was on the other foot the Dems would break the ice and defect in support of honesty and fairness. The big question for 2020 is going to be do young people and non-whites show up to the polls?  Will the uneducated whites keep have a huge turnout in support of Trump and shore up underwater Senatorial polling? A landslide in November, is becoming a distinct possibility, and the reason is the clear unfairness and rigged nature of the Senate trial. 

Here is a Pew Research snapshot of where things stand right now. https://www.people-press.org/2020/01/22/by-a-narrow-margin-americans-say-senate-trial-should-result-in-trumps-removal/  When the GOP votes straight down party lines to prevent a single piece of subpoenaed information from being allowed to be presented in a "trail?" Corruption will be what the image of the GOP will become to the majority of the country.

White educated women are gone for the GOP this cycle. That's not gonna change, just differ by how strong a tilt to the Dems. But the key is that right now people under 30 believe by a 63% -35% that Donald Trump should be removed from office.  WITHOUT any witnesses or facts presented voluntarily by the white house. These are the widest numbers by a large, large margin demographically against Trump and these are the voters of the future. When the GOP closes ranks and protects Trump from a fair trial these numbers will permanently transfer to the GOP.  These numbers are BEFORE the "trial" actually began.

Trump was NEVER going to be removed from office. What is happening now is that the Republican Party is cementing the view in the minds of educated and young voters in particular that they are corrupt.  Purely and completely corrupt.  Now this is not to say that a solid 41-43 percent of all voters think the GOP should prevent even a single scrap of paper be presented by the Trump administration in this "trial."  It's easy to see the corruption if you don't purposefully blind yourself.  I believe that a majority of Americans still have a sense of need for fairness.  I also have always felt that if the DEMs framed the trail as a fight for fairness and search for truth it would be a hard narrative to counter for the GOP.  One more day we are going to see a simply plea to find the truth.  In two days the argument will be, Trump should not be required to do anything but what he wants to do. The GOP will stand firmly behind this assertion and Moscow Mitch will have presided over a perfect Soviet style "trial."  Of course facts will trickle out over the Summer and Fall showing the clear fraud, and Trump's guilt will only become more, not less apparent.

And 2020 will be a wipeout. As the tilt from the educated whites, the young, and the non-white will surge a few percent.  And that solid Trump 43% will see it coming in the Fall and Republican enthusiasm will wane.  More importantly the young people of our Nation will view themselves for years as anything but Republican.

Those really are incredible numbers. And, not to distract from your point about young voters, I think it's also important to point out that according to the survey findings, almost 60 percent of all eligible voters under the age of 50 (regardless of education), think that Trump should be removed from office.

Just needed to give a shout out for my fellow Gen Xers out there.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13744]

Where does Pence fit into this as the VP and his role as President of the Senate aka Breaker of Ties. Obviously he wouldn't come into play with the final vote because it requires 67 senators not to mention it would seem like a slight conflict of interest to let a VP cast any deciding vote that would put them in the POTUS chair.

Does Pence break a tie if the vote is 50-50 to hear witnesses?  

And if he's in the room, I hope one of the House managers publicly asks him to testify right then.

[horncyclist 1391]

Where does Pence fit into this as the VP and his role as President of the Senate aka Breaker of Ties. Obviously he wouldn't come into play with the final vote because it requires 67 senators not to mention it would seem like a slight conflict of interest to let a VP cast any deciding vote that would put them in the POTUS chair.
Does Pence break a tie if the vote is 50-50 to hear witnesses?  
And if he's in the room, I hope one of the House managers publicly asks him to testify right then.

He's basically recused by the Chief Justice presiding constitutional direction. They did that because the VP, who would become President, has a conflict of interest. I don't know what happens with ties through.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[hayden_horn 11403]

schumer doing work

[henrygandorf 29230]

15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Where does Pence fit into this as the VP and his role as President of the Senate aka Breaker of Ties. Obviously he wouldn't come into play with the final vote because it requires 67 senators not to mention it would seem like a slight conflict of interest to let a VP cast any deciding vote that would put them in the POTUS chair.

Does Pence break a tie if the vote is 50-50 to hear witnesses?  

And if he's in the room, I hope one of the House managers publicly asks him to testify right then.

my understanding is that he has no standing in these proceedings.  the chief justice basically takes that role, and can serve as "tie-breaker" if the need arises.  although from what i've heard/read, in the event of a 50-50, he would likely kick it back to the senate for further arguments.  or, i've even heard that a 50-50 wouldn't be a "tie" as much as a "failure to pass" so tie goes to the fielder, as it were.

in short, it's the chief justice, and he's trying to stay out of it.

[horncyclist 1391]

Democratsneed to drop $100 mil on attack ads after the axquitsl. Corruption and cover up. Punish them for this shit. Don't let him claim exoneration.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Bateshorn 9991]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

my understanding is that he has no standing in these proceedings.  the chief justice basically takes that role, and can serve as "tie-breaker" if the need arises.  although from what i've heard/read, in the event of a 50-50, he would likely kick it back to the senate for further arguments.  or, i've even heard that a 50-50 wouldn't be a "tie" as much as a "failure to pass" so tie goes to the fielder, as it were.

in short, it's the chief justice, and he's trying to stay out of it.

This is correct. Pence has zero role.

[Fozzz 152]

What do you people believe are the odds of Trump being convicted in the Senate?  It looks like the line is at around -5000 against and the betting markets at around 92/8 against.  Those don't seem very good.

[Tuco 5094]

13 hours ago, otisdog said:

If  I may travel back a couple of pages and ask a question about the electoral college....the discussion inspired me to go to the '270 to win' website, where I saw both Maine and Nebraska had a striped graphic, and notes that explain that these states have 'split electoral votes' with state and district votes coming into play. How does that work, and why are these two state different from the rest?  Thanks 

 

The Nebraska electoral votes are assigned similar to the delegation.  If a candidate wins the popular vote in a congressional district, he wins the EV from that district.  If he wins the popular vote in the state, he wins the two EVs associated with the Senators.  In my lifetime, the only time it mattered was when Obama won NE-2 (Omaha plus some area) in 2008.  The NE Republican Party then moved to eliminate the rule and go to a winner-take-all.  They were met with considerable pushback, so instead they just gerrymandered the district to make it safer.  With changing demographics and Trump weakening in the suburbs, it looks to be back on the table in 2020. NE-1 (Lincoln plus lots of rural) is getting a little choppier for the GOP and encompasses NE-2, so it will be harder to redistrict without risking both.  I'm guessing they eliminate the rule prior to 2024. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

Maine operates under the same principle. Clinton won the 2 senate EV, plus ME-1(Basically Portland and the central/south coast), while Trump won ME-2 (which is northern and inland Maine).   That could happen again in 2020, Upstate Maine is even older and whiter than it was in 2016.  OTOH, Maine is now ranked choice, so 3rd party candidates don't really factor as much as in 2016, when Stein/Johnson soaked up 10%+ of the vote totals.

My guess is if the Democrats retain power in 2020, some of the south coast or Lewiston/Auburn will be drawn into Maine 2 to make it bluer.

Edited January 23, 2020 by Bateshorn

[Continental Op 3934]

Those really are incredible numbers. And, not to distract from your point about young voters, I think it's also important to point out that according to the survey findings, almost 60 percent of all eligible voters under the age of 50 (regardless of education), think that Trump should be removed from office.
Just needed to give a shout out for my fellow Gen Xers out there.

 

Well that's great and all until a huge percentage of them can't be bothered to get off their asses for an hour to go vote in November.

[Junior Miller 1502]

23 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Democratsneed to drop $100 mil on attack ads after the axquitsl. Corruption and cover up. Punish them for this shit. Don't let him claim exoneration.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

Where are they getting the $100 mil? Anyone with big money in this country is happy with trump because he follows the Moscow Mitch plan of removing several trillion in tax obligations from them for no reason. The govt is bought and paid for and the public is too stupid to see what's happening. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

24 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

What do you people believe are the odds of Trump being convicted in the Senate?  It looks like the line is at around -5000 against and the betting markets at around 92/8 against.  Those don't seem very good.

They aren't good and never have been good.  Practically non-existent.  It is known.   However this is about doing the right thing and hoping that it exposes the GOP for the corrupt immoral shitbags they've been acting like, so maybe the voting public might also do the right thing in the next few elections.

[4th&Five 42027]

 

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5911]

6 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

 

I wish they would call his bullshit bluff

[Tuco 5094]

11 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

 

Now would be a great time for Joe Biden to offer his testimony in trade for Trump's. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

35 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Those really are incredible numbers. And, not to distract from your point about young voters, I think it's also important to point out that according to the survey findings, almost 60 percent of all eligible voters under the age of 50 (regardless of education), think that Trump should be removed from office.
Just needed to give a shout out for my fellow Gen Xers out there.

 

Well that's great and all until a huge percentage of them can't be bothered to get off their asses for an hour to go vote in November.

Not this time. For the one and only time the generation X presidential election vote will actually matter and so we’re gonna save the universe. 

[High Plains Drifter 11194]

15 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Graham wants to blow "Shifty" Schiff

 

 

 

Schiff replies "Fuck you in your orange-stained face, you fucking traitor."

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19593]

3 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Now would be a great time for Joe Biden to offer his testimony in trade for Trump's. 

Only if Trump goes first. 

[Biff Tannen 46208]

Nadler showing the hypocrisy of Dershowitz. 

[hpslugga 4097]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Nadler showing the hypocrisy of Dershowitz. 

Just on this issue, right?

Because if one wanted to put that piece of shit's lies into full public view, we'd have to dedicate the 3 8-hour days just to an introduction.

[jimmyjazz 47348]

1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

What do you people believe are the odds of Trump being convicted in the Senate?  It looks like the line is at around -5000 against and the betting markets at around 92/8 against.  Those don't seem very good.

Hot take from Fozzz.  Huge news.

[jimmyjazz 47348]

44 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

Where are they getting the $100 mil? Anyone with big money in this country is happy with trump because he follows the Moscow Mitch plan of removing several trillion in tax obligations from them for no reason. The govt is bought and paid for and the public is too stupid to see what's happening. 

Well, Michael Bloomberg, who is RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT AND WHO HAS PLEDGED TO FINANCIALLY BACK THE DEM CANDIDATE, is worth $58B.

I'm pretty sure he can figure a way to pony up $100M.  The legality of that donation I can't speak to, because I'm no expert on campaign finance law, but it sure seems like the Kochs and Soros (among others) have figured out how to get all kinds of money into the funnel.

[bolverk 30376]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Hot take from Fozzz.  Huge news.

Based on his accusation of Ukrainians as being Nazis, I'm halfway convinced he's our old friend DSA from the scat site who made the same argument in the "What's happening in the Ukraine thread?" and actively defended Russia's invasion/annexation of Crimea. Oddly, the only other poster who also made that same argument was our missing meteorologist, but I don't think they're the same person.

[Junior Miller 1502]

I guarantee you Michael Bloomberg is in it if he can win the nomination but he's not going to spend that kind of money to financially back someone who might not even serve his financial interest while in office. 

[Fozzz 152]

8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Based on his accusation of Ukrainians as being Nazis, I'm halfway convinced he's our old friend DSA from the scat site who made the same argument in the "What's happening in the Ukraine thread?" and actively defended Russia's invasion/annexation of Crimea. Oddly, the only other poster who also made that same argument was our missing meteorologist, but I don't think they're the same person.

Why do you characterize it is as an accusation?  The fact that the Ukrainian government has a Nazi problem has been reported everywhere, and isn't some baseless conspiracy theory (like the "Trump is in cahoots with Putin" conspiracy theory, for instance).  US military support for Ukrainian Neo-Nazis was such a concern that it actually spurred Congress to attempt to limit the Administration's ability from providing said support.  You would think such a scandal would be more newsworthy than some farcical impeachment trial the result of which is foreordained (something even the impeachment humpers itt will readily admit), but here we are.  

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20953]

5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Why do you characterize it is as an accusation?  The fact that the Ukrainian government has a Nazi problem has been reported everywhere, and isn't some baseless conspiracy theory (like the "Trump is in cahoots with Putin" conspiracy theory, for instance).  US military support for Ukrainian Neo-Nazis was such a concern that it actually spurred Congress to attempt to limit the Administration's ability from providing said support.  You would think such a scandal would be more newsworthy than some farcical impeachment trial the result of which is foreordained (something even the impeachment humpers itt will readily admit), but here we are.  

 

HI DSA!

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3875]

34 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Not this time. For the one and only time the generation X presidential election vote will actually matter and so we’re gonna save the universe. 

demographics talk gives me warm fuzzies for the last two years.  it's why i said for a while there is no way trump wins 2020.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/

 

 

that is from the midterm, where i think wave effects are amplified, but it still shows a nice trend.  the olds' days are over.

my favorite part of the article was this though:

Quote

Higher turnout accounted for a significant portion of the increase. Millennials and Gen X together cast 21.9 million more votes in 2018 than in 2014. (The number of eligible voter Millennials and Gen Xers grew by 2.5 million over those four years, due to the number of naturalizations exceeding mortality.) And 4.5 million votes were cast by Gen Z voters, all of whom turned 18 since 2014.

4.5 MM votes by Gen Z in a midterm.  What is it going to be in a presidential year?  When there are two more years of Gen Z voters?  How many of those votes is trump going to get?  60?  for real though, if it is 2-1 for that group against trump, which is probably the most generous interpretation in trump's favor of the data, you are looking at over a 2 MM vote deficit from that group alone.

[TXSG8R 3362]

4 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Why do you characterize it is as an accusation?  The fact that the Ukrainian government has a Nazi problem has been reported everywhere, and isn't some baseless conspiracy theory (like the "Trump is in cahoots with Putin" conspiracy theory, for instance).  US military support for Ukrainian Neo-Nazis was such a concern that it actually spurred Congress to attempt to limit the Administration's ability from providing said support.  You would think such a scandal would be more newsworthy than some farcical impeachment trial the result of which is foreordained (something even the impeachment humpers itt will readily admit), but here we are.  

Ukraine's military is currently around 250k troops.  The azov battalion has less than 1k troops in it, and again, its a jumped up militia that was made into a national guard unit, its not part of the active Ukraine military.    

[bolverk 30376]

2 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

HI DSA!

Heh, confirmation of suspicion (I used to think he was Rocko). I had him on ignore but enough of you assholes quoted him that I couldn't help but follow the thread derail.

Now, back to Trump's treachery.

[elfenix 34792]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3875]

13 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

demographics talk gives me warm fuzzies for the last two years.  it's why i said for a while there is no way trump wins 2020.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/

 

 

that is from the midterm, where i think wave effects are amplified, but it still shows a nice trend.  the olds' days are over.

my favorite part of the article was this though:

4.5 MM votes by Gen Z in a midterm.  What is it going to be in a presidential year?  When there are two more years of Gen Z voters?  How many of those votes is trump going to get?  60?  for real though, if it is 2-1 for that group against trump, which is probably the most generous interpretation in trump's favor of the data, you are looking at over a 2 MM vote deficit from that group alone.

another paragraph from that article that caught my eye:

Quote

By comparison, the number of votes cast by Boomer and older generations increased 3.6 million. Even this modest increase is noteworthy, since the number of eligible voters among these generations fell by 8.8 million between the elections, largely due to higher mortality among these generations.

In four years, Boomer and older died off 8.8MM.  If you assume a slightly increased death rate as those generations age -- say, increase it to 9MM for the four years between 2016-2020, at a 5-4 Trump advantage to those people, which is about where it was, you get a trump deficit of about 700,000.

So by demographics alone with new Gen Z voters and death of boomers+, you are looking at doubling Hillary's 3MM popular win to about a 6MM spread.

[atomheartbevo 90689]

 

48 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

I guarantee you Michael Bloomberg is in it if he can win the nomination but he's not going to spend that kind of money to financially back someone who might not even serve his financial interest while in office. 

I think there's a decent chance he'll toss out plenty of money against Trump.  He really hates Trump these days.

[Pato del Muerto 53607]

Pretty crummy of trump to release the coronavirus in China to distract from the senate proceedings. 

[henrygandorf 29230]

7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

another paragraph from that article that caught my eye:

In four years, Boomer and older died off 8.8MM.  If you assume a slightly increased death rate as those generations age -- say, increase it to 9MM for the four years between 2016-2020, at a 5-4 Trump advantage to those people, which is about where it was, you get a trump deficit of about 700,000.

So by demographics alone with new Gen Z voters and death of boomers+, you are looking at doubling Hillary's 3MM popular win to about a 6MM spread.

there are also quite a few tweets that outline the numbers and demo (age, race, etc) of people registering since 2018 in certain states.

they are encouraging.

[Pescado_Rojo 19593]

I'd like to see those stats broken down for MI, PA, WI, OH, FL, and AZ. That's really where it matters. 

[Cairn Horn88 8503]

2 hours ago, Junior Miller said:

Where are they getting the $100 mil? Anyone with big money in this country is happy with trump because he follows the Moscow Mitch plan of removing several trillion in tax obligations from them for no reason. The govt is bought and paid for and the public is too stupid to see what's happening. 

Bloomberg...he could do it...he could also put $$ into getting McConnell voted out, along with other vulnerable R Senators running this year...control the Senate and House and get this nation straightened out.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3875]

7 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I'd like to see those stats broken down for MI, PA, WI, OH, FL, and AZ. That's really where it matters. 

just read this wapo article, which is confusing and only mildly illuminating.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/09/19/more-voters-are-registering-than-dying-but-differences-by-state-could-shape/

 

but, it includes this figure, which is useful.  black circle is number of deaths (ed -- scaled to the number of new registrants), pie chart is new registrations with party preference (usually, registering as a democrat or republican, but some states don't do that so they have other proxies).

 

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

[atomheartbevo 90689]

34 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

there are also quite a few tweets that outline the numbers and demo (age, race, etc) of people registering since 2018 in certain states.

This is the more interesting thing to me.  If you can get some of those newly-registered voters out, it changes the game.  

In theory, they should be excited about voting, particularly if they don't like Trump.  But just overall, in certain states, they should be a little more motivated to vote, than a lot of the more moderate voters that maybe didn't vote for Hillary (or voted against her).

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

Hello Texas. Nice.

[Biff Tannen 46208]

Texas comin' for em.  Eat shit assholes.