Electoral Map math

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

And I've read that studies say that people usually lock in their economic opinions by late spring of the election year.

I assume those studies were published prior to 2008?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

what if i told you the democratic candidate will win utah?

[Js1 85109]

Pass the crack pipe, my friend. 

[Goredho 17348]

One thing about all these scenarios, they all hinge on a relatively small number of people in relatively small geographic areas.  Thank goodness they can't be intelligently targeted for manipulation or otherwise have their voting numbers enhanced or offset.

Oh, wait... 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

4 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Yep.

 

[Texas Jeff 1932]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

However given a lack of 270 electoral votes, the House decides the President and the Senate decides the VP.  I can't find any clarity if the new House would decide or the current one.  If anyone knows that answer, please post.

The answer is murky and probably somewhere in the 12th and 20th amendments.  Normally the new Congress is seated on January 3rd and the electoral college meeting is on January 6th, so the new Congress decides.  Since 1936 it has been the new congress, but before that it was the old congress.

Imagine the shitshow if there is a tie, the electors meet, and a "faithless elector" votes for Kermit the Frog, thus throwing the election to the other side.

 

  

 

[RayDog 682]

I posted this list in another thread but it should be here too. People seem to forget how big the Trump wave was from 2012 to 2016 in WI, MI, PA, OH and IA, and that much of that disappeared already in 2018.

Michigan -0.2% (2012 to 2016 -9.7%)
Pennsylvania -0.7% (2012 to 2016 -6.1%)
Wisconsin -0.8% (2012 to 2016 -7.7%)
Florida -1.2%  (2012 to 2016 -2.1%)
Arizona -3.5% (2012 to 2016 +5.6%)
North Carolina -3.7% (2012 to 2016 -1.7%)
Georgia -5.1% (2012 to 2016 +2.7%)
Ohio -8.1% (2012 to 2016 -11.1%)
Texas -9% (2012 to 2016 +6.8%)
Iowa -9.5% (2012 to 2016 -15.3%)

Over 4 years around 7.5 million voters die with Trump losing close to 5 million with a net loss of greater than 2 million votes. The 19 million new voters, mostly millennials and Zers, will swing hard to Democrats. Given a few Trump voters who will vote against him in 2020 he can only expect about 56 million votes from the ~63 million who voted for him in 2016. With 140 million total votes expected in 2020 he has to find over 14 million new voters to win the popular vote, out of the 19 million. That won't happen.

Given the underlying trend of Arizona and North Carolina toward democrats and deaths, MI, Pa, WI, AZ, and NC should vote against Trump. Florida will Florida, but I think they flip, particularly given  the new former felon vote. Ohio, the Florida of the Midwest, will do their thing too, and I suspect they will stick with Trump 

Only two states bought into Trump's populist lies more than Iowa, but they elected three democratic congressmen in 2018 and Trump's approval is 10 points below water there. I think they swing all the way back.

Georgia and Texas are trending hard toward the Democrats. I think this is the year they flip, but that may be wishful thinking. In Texas there will be 2 million or more voters vote who did not vote in 2018, and nearly 90% of them will come from the 10 largest counties that have swung hard toward the Democrats over the last 8 years. They will make it close, perhaps +/- 100,000 votes, or +/- 1%. Georgia should be just as close on a percentage basis.

Edited January 16, 2020 by RayDog

[RDCanecutter 26267]

My prediction is: Republicans 20, Democrats 197, I'll Just Have One More Muffin From The Office Break Room 321.

I for one salute our new IJHOMMFTOBR masters.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/r41l4.png

Edited January 16, 2020 by RDCanecutter

[6th Street 6357]

There's a little too much white trash in WI and FL unfortunately and will likely go Trump again

[RayDog 682]

I  watched a Ring of Fire YouTube video on the topic of the Florida ex-felons getting their voting rights back. It turns out that after the Republicans decided to add a requirement that all the felons fines be paid, the ex-felons started approaching the counties to see if they are in the clear. It turns out that it is mostly judges in the Democratic leaning counties that either agreeing that the fines were paid or forgiving remaining fines. Judges in Republican counties won't help. So if anything, the Republican voter suppression is increasing the bias toward the ex-felons voting Democratic in the next election. It could be a net gain of 200,000 plus to Democrats, which is enough.