Jump to content

Titans @ Chiefs: AFC Championship Game

Vic Mackey

By Vic Mackey
in Football

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 532
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

tfoolry
tfoolry
Huckleberry
Huckleberry

There you go again, not trying to understand advanced stats or analytics but rather just reading them then trying to memorize a one line blurb you can repeat all over the place. Running the footb

Vic Mackey
Vic Mackey
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32684

Posted
Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Aggressively stupid.

 

There you go again, not trying to understand advanced stats or analytics but rather just reading them then trying to memorize a one line blurb you can repeat all over the place.

Running the football is not inferior to passing the football if you do it well enough. Run plays generally have a lower variance and if you eliminate TFLs and have a below average passer (hi Tannehill!) can easily be the better option for your team. Titan playoff numbers (eliminating Tannehill runs in case they're ascribed incorrectly as scrambles versus called draws or runs, etc.):

vs. New England

Run plays - Average 5.3 yards per play, standard deviation of 5.4, 73.4%, 85.0%
Pass plays - Average 4.9, standard deviation of 7.0, 65.6%, 75.9%

The final two numbers are the probability of gaining 10 yards on 3 consecutive plays and 4 consecutive plays, respectively.

vs. Baltimore

Run - 6.6, 12.4, 67.5%, 74.5%
Pass - 5.2, 11.7, 60.8%, 67.7 %

Against Baltimore they had more big plays, but the run game was still better for them. This is even including the three kill the clock drives at the end of the game that had basically 12 straight easily predictable run calls to seal the win.

Then you get to their opponent this weekend. The Chiefs were #7 in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt, but were #29 in yards allowed per rushing attempt. It would be professional malfeasance if Vrabel's plan for this weekend were not to be heavily tilted toward running the ball.

Edited by Huckleberry
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted (edited)

lmao Dingleberry why you are citing a volume stat in assessing Tannehill's quality as a QB?  Notice that he has the third fewest plays in that list?  On a per play basis, Tannehill has been one of best QBs in the league this season.

spacer.png

It's silly to limit your analysis to two playoff games, but even in those cherry-picked instances, only against Baltimore game did Henry have a higher EPA/play than Tannehill.  Tannehill is the reason the Titans are even in the playoffs, as their offense improved dramatically once he took over.  The Titans should play to their strengths, which is their passing game.

spacer.png

Edited by Fozzz
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted

Imagine being so dumb as to believe that extremely noisy defensive stats like passing yards per attempt and yards per rushing attempt should lead you to rely on running the dang ball when you have the second largest positive split in passing-rushing efficiency in the league.  Getting a headache just thinking about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32684

Posted
Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Imagine being so dumb as to believe that extremely noisy defensive stats like passing yards per attempt and yards per rushing attempt should lead you to rely on running the dang ball when you have the second largest positive split in passing-rushing efficiency in the league.  Getting a headache just thinking about it.

Hahaha, your two posts here are perfect examples of your inability to actually analyze anything.

The fact you think that using the New England and Baltimore games is an example of cherry picking is magnificent. It doesn't even occur to you that the reason they're relevant isn't something like recency or DUR PLAYOFFS, it's because New England and Baltimore are both elite pass defenses. Oh, guess what? So is this week's opponent. Both New England (simply because their run defense is merely great instead of other-worldly like their pass defense) and Baltimore are significantly better against the pass. Hmm, I wonder what other team is like that except even more extreme? Oh yeah, Kansas City. On any decent metric Kansas City is a borderline top 5 pass defense and bottom 5 run defense. But Fozzz says the Titans should gameplan to pass all day because Tannehill is efficient in the aggregate and he read so on a website. Awesome. The only thing more amazing is that you just cited their offensive passing-rushing efficiency split without even wondering if maybe when formulating a gameplan that they should possibly think about maybe considering the defense's split.

Rank in difference between defensive pass and run DVOA this season: New England #2, Baltimore #5, Kansas City #4

Tennessee rank in difference between offensive pass and run DVOA this season is #13.

Tannehill is extremely efficient this year specifically because they protect him from volume against elite pass defenses. And then they got to the playoffs and they went even more extreme on this approach. That's the exact reason that the low volume was relevant. You are so simple-minded and accordingly mesmerized by pretty charts that show big picture results that you don't understand any details. if you were analyzing a team that ran for 6 yards on every play except for a handful of play-action passes per game that went for 20 yards each you would actually be dumbfounded that they ever run the ball instead of passing every down.

That headache you're getting is most likely from starting to try to think for a minute. Get some rest, big guy.

Edited by Huckleberry
Link to comment
Share on other sites
RockyMountainHighHorn

RockyMountainHighHorn 888

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

as a chiefs fan i'm nervous as hell. Andy Reid's track record here suuucckkksss, and the Titans just went to foxborough and then baltimore and kicked ass. i'll be thrilled with a Chiefs win, but i expect nothing. 

Right there with you. My big hope is that we get up early and force them to throw the ball. Although, I guess their run game is like a deep passing attack. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Hahaha, your two posts here are perfect examples of your inability to actually analyze anything.

The fact you think that using the New England and Baltimore games is an example of cherry picking is magnificent. It doesn't even occur to you that the reason they're relevant isn't something like recency or DUR PLAYOFFS, it's because New England and Baltimore are both elite pass defenses. Oh, guess what? So is this week's opponent. Both New England (simply because their run defense is merely great instead of other-worldly like their pass defense) and Baltimore are significantly better against the pass. Hmm, I wonder what other team is like that except even more extreme? Oh yeah, Kansas City. On any decent metric Kansas City is a borderline top 5 pass defense and bottom 5 run defense. But Fozzz says the Titans should gameplan to pass all day because Tannehill is efficient in the aggregate and he read so on a website. Awesome. The only thing more amazing is that you just cited their offensive passing-rushing efficiency split without even wondering if maybe when formulating a gameplan that they should possibly think about maybe considering the defense's split.

Rank in difference between pass and run DVOA this season: New England #2, Baltimore #5, Kansas City #4

Tannehill is extremely efficient this year specifically because they protect him from volume against elite pass defenses. And then they got to the playoffs and they went even more extreme on this approach. That's the exact reason that the low volume was relevant. You are so simple-minded and accordingly mesmerized by pretty charts that show big picture results that you don't understand any details. if you were analyzing a team that ran for 6 yards on every play except for a handful of play-action passes per game that went for 20 yards each you would actually be dumbfounded that they ever run the ball instead of passing every down.

That headache you're getting is most likely from starting to try to think for a minute. Get some rest, big guy.

lmao.  Defensive stats, including pass/run DVOA, are far more subject to noise than offensive stats, including EPA/dropback and EPA/rush.  The year-to-year and within season stability for stuff like rushing DVOA and passing DVOA is garbage.  Teams simply have far more control over their offensive efficiency than their defensive efficiency.  Why would you tailor your game plan away from the strength of your offense because of some defensive stat that is 90% noise?  Preposterous.  Further, you have nothing to back up your claim that the reason for Tannehill's success is due to a low dropback rate.  You're just pulling that shit out of your ass.  The Texans, which are far more "balanced" in pass/rush efficiency than the Titans, had a 0.06 EPA/dropback and a -0.18 EPA/rush against the Chiefs even though their dropback rate in that game was over 70%.  Who knows maybe they would have magically performed better had they run the ball more in view of KC's impressive passing DVOA as Dingleberry prescribes.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SA-KC_Horn

SA-KC_Horn 1293

Posted
Posted

This is the matchup I dreaded before the playoff seedings were decided on week 17. I knew back early in the season when KC was getting exposed by the Texans, Titans and Green Bay.....that the run defense was the single weakness on the team. My Hope is that early season issue does not show up.

Fuck it....with that said, my boys will ball out and win this bitch.

34 - 20

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Vic Mackey

Vic Mackey 46919

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I do find it funny I see so many people say Henry is the Titans only weapon. They would not even have sniffed the playoffs if they didn't ditch Mariota and inserted Tannehill. He played about as good as any other QB down the stretch to get the Titans into the playoffs. He can ball if they need him to. And he's about as efficient as you can ask him to be in the playoffs. When they need a play for him, he makes it. He accounted for 3 of the 4 TDs against the Ravens. He made that huge pass against the Pats on 3rd down to pretty much ice the game and guarantee NE would not see the ball again with any real time left. I don't think he can sling it toe to toe with Mahomes (no QB can) but the Titans can move the ball in the air if they need and are pretty good on the big play down the field.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10734

Posted
Posted

i wrote this at the end of the day on the titians/blackbirds thread...

++++++++++

Derrick Henry carries a wallet that says Badass Mother Fucker.

Quote

tbone wrote: "The one stat that is pretty much never a fluke though is when your BMF running back has 200 on the ground in a playoff game."

You're goddamn right.

All the rest of this day-after armchair blah-blah means fuckall.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush_yds_single_game_playoffs.htm

The list of names that have a Top 20 All-Time Postseason performance is informative.

In the pregame segment for Tennessee/Baltimore, Phil Simms said Henry reminds him of Jim Brown.  Brown only had 4 postseason appearances, but never came close to making the Top 20, much less breaking the 150-yard post-season barrier.  Emmitt, the all-time career postseason yardage leader, never broke 150 yards in the playoffs, which is the line for this list (with 51 total occurrences in NFL history).  Only 2 players appear twice on the Top 20 list.  Terrell Davis did it for the Broncos in 97 and 99.  He also has 2 other appearances on the list, for 4 total, twice as many as everyone else, with the exception of Henry.  A quick search shows 3 or 4 others with 2 appearances on the overall list.   So approximately 80% of the players on this list broke 150 yards one time.  Once.

The only other player that appears more than twice in the ALL-TIME Top 20 list for ground yards in a playoff game...

..... just put up his 2nd & 3rd performances in BACK TO BACK GAMES.

He is also tied for #46 on the list, having shredded KC for 156 yards 2 years ago, for a current total of 3 postseason games with 150+ yards.

Derrick Henry.

The Ent.

+++++++++++++++++++

6 days later i'm looking at that -7 line, KC's #29 rank vs. the run this year, the fact that Henry has already busted up KC in the playoffs 2 years ago, Reid's record and history when he gets to this stage, and the fact that Tannehill's wife's sledfeet and reptile metatarsils have basically no connection to Henry's all-universe performances in these playoffs, and i'm saying to myself if i were a betting man no fucking wai would i put money on this game.

the Chefs have always been my #2.  but no one has shut down The Ent in these playoffs, and until they do, they haven't.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Vic Mackey

Vic Mackey 46919

Posted
  • Author
Posted
41 minutes ago, Chad said:

EOlPS8MUEAATnhc?format=jpg&name=large

 

Things didn't work out for Earl Thomas after he called out Derrick Henry. The Chiefs have a pathetic defense that Derrick Henry already trucked this season, Frank Clark didn't do shit to stop him in their first meeting.

Not one of the best breaking tackles? Hmmmm

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Only thing I know from reading this thread thus far is (1) whichever team Vic roots for will lose, and (2) fozzz is textbook case for the Dunning-Kruger effect. 

One thing I know from reading this thread is that you’re dumb as dirt, retard. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10734

Posted
Posted

other chefs (not frank clark) with a more realistic assessment of the challenge...

(esipn)

Henry has rushed for no fewer than 180 yards in each of his past three games, a string that includes surprise road playoff victories over the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots.

His past eight games have produced historic results. In that span, Henry has gained 1,273 rushing yards, the third most in NFL history (assuming in 8 consecutive games).

Henry's 137 rushing yards after contact in last weekend's win over the Ravens were the most in a game in the past 10 postseasons.

The 6-foot-3, 247-pound running back rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Chiefs in Week 10. That performance had some Kansas City players feeling differently than Clark about having to face Henry and the Titans again.

"It's going to take a lot of us hitting him and tackling him, more than one guy," linebacker Anthony Hitchens said Friday. "You've got to take his legs out. We've talked all week [about] killing the engine, hitting him in his legs and thighs and chopping him down. When you tackle him high, he tends to carry you for about 5 more yards."

Said Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu on Friday: "The mentality is that somebody is going to have to stop him. Somebody is going to have to make a tackle on him if we want to get to Miami."

+++

the aggy is going to have the biggest play-action vacuum in nfl history.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SpiralOut

SpiralOut 1809

Posted
Posted

Rooting for the Chiefs. 

But on the other hand, seeing the Titans win a Super Bowl and knowing Fuckface Fisher is crying into his soup at home with no chance of ever sniffing the NFL coaching ranks again would warm my cold, dead heart.

I would guess the Titans win.  The only way you beat Mahomes and Co. is to keep that offense off the field.  The only way to do that is to run the ball and have a vice grip on TOP.  And that's all the Titans do.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Vic Mackey

Vic Mackey 46919

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

big day in KC...they havent been in a superbowl in 50 years.

I bet they are tailgating their asses off right now.

We tailgated at Cowboys Stadium when we played KC in 2017. Every one of the Chiefs fans we met were cool as hell. Unlike the fucking Steelers fans in 2012. Fuck them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RPM

RPM 26185

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Always been a bit of a Chief fan because  they started out as the Dallas Texans.  Should be a good game.

Same, sort of. That's about the only way I can consider myself a KC fan. On the other hand, I have the hate with the heat of 1000 suns for the Titans. Fuck 'em right in their ear hole. I'll never forgive Bud Adams.

Personally, I think the NFL will do everything they can do get a KC/GB rematch for the 100th season. The fix is in.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted

Wild Card Trivia Time:

 

6 wildcards have won the Superbowl, about 12% since it started in 1970. 2 have been #6 seeds, as the Titans are this year.

Since the wild-card round of the playoffs started in 1970, 10 wild-card teams have advanced to the Super Bowl. Six have won the Super Bowl -- the Oakland Raiders (1980), Denver Broncos (1997), Baltimore Ravens (2000), Pittsburgh Steelers (2005), New York Giants (2007) and Green Bay Packers (2010).

Of those, six won the Super Bowl. Only four of those wild card teams -- New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, and Green Bay Packers -- won three games on the road to make it to the Super Bowl.

Since 1990 when the NFL expanded it's playoff format to include six teams from each conference, only two six seeds have gone on to win the Super Bowl. The 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers and 2010 Green Bay Packers won it all from the low spot on the totem poll.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Knoxtnhorn

Knoxtnhorn 5928

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, EastTexan said:

Yep. I'm for the Dallas Texans.

 ...and hope it's a good close game also.

Yep.   

I lived in TN for 20 years.  My FB feed has recently been inundated with Titan posts from people who have never posted, mentioned, or otherwise supported this team.  Screw bandwagoners.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
EastTexan

EastTexan 662

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RPM said:

Same, sort of. That's about the only way I can consider myself a KC fan. On the other hand, I have the hate with the heat of 1000 suns for the Titans. Fuck 'em right in their ear hole. I'll never forgive Bud Adams.

Personally, I think the NFL will do everything they can do get a KC/GB rematch for the 100th season. The fix is in.

 

If the NFL could have somehow swung it, they'd have Cowboys in Green Bay. Fuck Lombardi (under ground heating system), Kramer (offsides), etc. And that dude (what ever his name) who caught the swing pass in GB's last drive. Always liked Starr though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Deej

Deej 76508

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Yep.   

I lived in TN for 20 years.  My FB feed has recently been inundated with Titan posts from people who have never posted, mentioned, or otherwise supported this team.  Screw bandwagoners.

Happens with any team sniffing a title.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...