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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

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ABSR

ABSR 5370

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2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Soooo, basicallt, its pretty much the flu? So it will just wipe through the world, kill off 1-2% of the population (most of which likely are old and feeble or dont have medical care) and then thats it?

 

i mean, it sounds awful, but also sounds like it wont be as bad as... say... SARS or Ebola

Flu kills about .1% of those infected.  That is not 10% or 1%, but point 1% (rough estimate).   People who die from flu are almost always very young infants or elderly.

This outbreak is affecting and killing people of all ages.  The Chinese are saying 3% mortality...and we know they are likely lying about both infection numbers and deaths., so it is likely higher of not much higher.

look up info on the Spanish flu, and it’s impact etc.  That is the type of concern and closer to worst case here.  

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Doc Reeves

Doc Reeves 6434

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13 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

In the Golly Gee, What a Huge Coincidence department:

Virus-hit Wuhan has two laboratories linked to Chinese bio-warfare program

I'm certain it just originated in bats, or snakes, or the latest theory, not a lab worker being careless or making a mistake.

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The deadly animal virus epidemic spreading globally may have originated in a Wuhan laboratory linked to China’s covert biological weapons program, according to an Israeli biological warfare expert.

Radio Free Asia this week rebroadcast a local Wuhan television report from 2015 showing China’s most advanced virus research laboratory known the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Radio Free Asia reported.

The laboratory is the only declared site in China capable of working with deadly viruses.

Dany Shoham, a former Israeli military intelligence officer who has studied Chinese bio warfare, said the institute is linked to Beijing’s covert biological weapons program.

“Certain laboratories in the institute have probably been engaged, in terms of research and development, in Chinese [biological weapons], at least collaterally, yet not as a principal facility of the Chinese BW alignment,” Mr. Shoham told The Washington Times.

Work on biological weapons is conducted as part of a dual civilian-military research and is “definitely covert,” he said in an email.

Mr. Shoham holds a doctorate in medical microbiology. From 1970 to 1991 he was a senior analyst with Israeli military intelligence for biological and chemical warfare in the Middle East and worldwide, holding the rank of lieutenant colonel.

China in the past has denied having any offensive biological weapons. The State Department, in a report last year, said it suspects China has engaged in covert biological warfare work.

A Chinese Embassy spokesman did not return an email seeking comment.

Chinese authorities so far have said the origin of the coronavirus that has killed scores and infected hundreds in in central Hubei Province is not known.

Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told state-controlled media initial signs as of Thursday indicated the virus originated from wild animals sold at a seafood market in Wuhan.

One ominous sign, said a U.S. official, is the that false rumors since the outbreak began several weeks ago have begun circulating on the Chinese Internet claiming the virus is part of a U.S. conspiracy to spread germ weapons.

That could indicate China is preparing propaganda outlets to counter future charges the new virus escaped from one of Wuhan’s civilian or defense research laboratories.

The World Health Organization is calling the microbe novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV. At a meeting in Geneva Thursday, the organization stopped short of declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

The virus outbreak causes pneumonia-like symptoms and prompted China to deploy military forces to Wuhan this week in a bid to halt the spread. All travel out of the city of 11 million people was halted.

The Wuhan institute has studied coronaviruses in the past, including the including the strain that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, H5N1 influenza virus, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue. Researchers at the institute also studied the germ that causes anthrax – a biological agent once developed in Russia.

“Coronaviruses (particularly SARS) have been studied in the institute and are probably held therein,” he said. “SARS is included within the Chinese BW program, at large, and is dealt with in several pertinent facilities.”

It is not known if the institute’s array of coronaviruses are specifically included in biological weapons program but it is possible, he said.

Asked if the new coronavirus may have leaked, Mr. Shoham said: “In principle, outward virus infiltration might take place either as leakage or as an indoor unnoticed infection of a person that normally went out of the concerned facility. This could have been the case with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but so far there isn’t evidence or indication for such incident.”

After researchers sequence of the genome of the new coronavirus it might be possible to determine or suggest its origin or source.

Mr. Shoham, now with the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University in Israel, said the virology institute is the only declared site in China known as P4 for Pathogen Level 4, a status indicating it uses the strictest safety standards to prevent the spread of the most dangerous and exotic microbes being studied.

The former Israeli military intelligence doctor also said suspicions were raised about the Wuhan Institute of Virology when a group of Chinese virologists working in Canada improperly sent samples to China of what he said were some of the deadliest viruses on earth, including the Ebola virus.

In a July article in the journal Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Mr. Shoham said the Wuhan institute was one of four Chinese laboratories engaged in some aspects of the biological weapons development.

He identified the secure Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory at the institute as engaged in research on the Ebola, Nipah, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever viruses.

The Wuhan virology institute is under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. But certain laboratories within it “have linkage with the PLA or BW-related elements within the Chinese defense establishment,” he said.

In 1993, China declared a second facility, the Wuhan Institute of Biological Products, as one of eight biological warfare research facilities covered by the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) which China joined in 1985.

The Wuhan Institute of Biological Products is a civilian facility but is linked to the Chinese defense establishment, and has been regarded to be involved in the Chinese BW program, Mr. Shoham said.

China’s vaccine against SARS is probably produced there.

“This means the SARS virus is held and propagated there, but it is not a new coronavirus, unless the wild type has been modified, which is not known and cannot be speculated at the moment,” he said.

The annual State Department report on arms treaty compliance stated last year that China engaged in activities that could support biological warfare.

“Information indicates that the People’s Republic of China engaged during the reporting period in biological activities with potential dual-use applications, which raises concerns regarding its compliance with the BWC,” the report said, adding that the United States suspects China failed to eliminate its biological warfare program as required by the treaty.

“The United States has compliance concerns with respect to Chinese military medical institutions’ toxin research and development because of the potential dual-use applications and their potential as a biological threat,” the report added.

The biosafety lab is located about 20 miles from the Hunan Seaford Market that reports from China say may have been origin point of the virus.

Rutgers University microbiologist Dr. Richard Ebright told London’s Daily Mail that “at this point there’s no reason to harbor suspicions” the lab may be linked to the virus outbreak.

 


who knows what the truth is at this point, but the only thing keeping me from going full tinfoil hat on this is the gov. response. If the knew what they were dealing with I feel like they would have more quickly quarantined the city and airports

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Doc Reeves said:


who knows what the truth is at this point, but the only thing keeping me from going full tinfoil hat on this is the gov. response. If the knew what they were dealing with I feel like they would have more quickly quarantined the city and airports

The Chinese gov response? Where they’re locking down entire cities and building 2 new hospitals devoted solely to this? It seems like it’s a pretty huge deal. 

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Doc Reeves

Doc Reeves 6434

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30 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

The Chinese gov response? Where they’re locking down entire cities and building 2 new hospitals devoted solely to this? It seems like it’s a pretty huge deal. 

 

Right on, but they were aware of shit in Dec. so maybe the gov. was just governmenting. Just seems they were shall we say ‘sluggish.’

of course maybe this is connected in that the facility was trying to refine a weapon which was then unknowingly transmitted to local wild bats and then made the jump to humans on its own resulting in the market epicenter. 

don’t know, but it’s probably going to be a movie on Netflix in 4 months either way

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Helobious

Helobious 9824

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2 hours ago, ABSR said:

Flu kills about .1% of those infected.  That is not 10% or 1%, but point 1% (rough estimate).   People who die from flu are almost always very young infants or elderly.

This outbreak is affecting and killing people of all ages.  The Chinese are saying 3% mortality...and we know they are likely lying about both infection numbers and deaths., so it is likely higher of not much higher.

look up info on the Spanish flu, and it’s impact etc.  That is the type of concern and closer to worst case here.  

The regular flu kills people of all ages too. Like I’ve already said, this virus is getting way too much attention to become a worldwide pandemic. Fears are too high already and too many precautions are already being taken. The next global plague will be something that comes out of nowhere & blindsides the world. Anything short of that won’t reach pandemic levels. It’s not 1919 anymore.

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Parliament

Parliament 14600

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3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

The regular flu kills people of all ages too. Like I’ve already said, this virus is getting way too much attention to become a worldwide pandemic. Fears are too high already and too many precautions are already being taken. The next global plague will be something that comes out of nowhere & blindsides the world. Anything short of that won’t reach pandemic levels. It’s not 1919 anymore.

Tagged.  Let is revisit in 18 months.  (I agree with you, but still.)

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Goredho

Goredho 17662

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If you find the increase in zoonotic viral outbreaks alarming/interesting, this is a great read.  Think I may read it again now, actually.

51x-X0cUnZL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

https://www.amazon.com/Spillover-Animal-Infections-Human-Pandemic/dp/0393066800

Exemplary science writer Quammen schools us in the fascinating if alarming facts about zoonotic diseases, animal infections that sicken humans, such as rabies, Ebola, influenza, and West Nile. Zoonoses can escalate rapidly into global pandemics when human-to-human transmission occurs, and Quammen wants us to understand disease dynamics and exactly what’s at stake. Drawing on the truly dramatic history of virology, he profiles brave and stubborn viral sleuths and recounts his own hair-raising field adventures, including helping capture large fruit bats in Bangladesh. Along the way, Quammen explains how devilishly difficult it is to trace the origins of a zoonosis and explicates the hidden process by which pathogens spill over from their respective reservoir hosts (water fowl, mosquitoes, pigs, bats, monkeys) and infect humans. We contract Lyme disease after it’s spread by black-legged ticks and white-footed mice, not white-tailed deer as commonly believed. The SARS epidemic involves China’s wild flavor trend and the eating of civets. Quammen’s revelatory, far-reaching investigation into AIDS begins in 1908 with a bloody encounter between a hunter and a chimpanzee in Cameroon. Zoonotic diseases are now on the rise due to our increasing population, deforestation, fragmented ecosystems, and factory farming. Quammen spent six years on this vital, in-depth tour de force in the hope that knowledge will engender preparedness. An essential work. --Donna Seaman

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3511

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The Pandemic in 1918 killed so many from secondary infections. We have antibiotics and other treatments now for that complication.  Still, even a 1% mortality rate would be considered high in the US. 3% is getting pretty high in the modern age for such a contagious disease.

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Somnio

Somnio 751

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2 hours ago, Doc Reeves said:


who knows what the truth is at this point, but the only thing keeping me from going full tinfoil hat on this is the gov. response. If the knew what they were dealing with I feel like they would have more quickly quarantined the city and airports

Full tin foil hat theory: 

1 month ago an earthquake hit Wuhan.  This earthquake damaged said bioweapons facility, causing infection.  Due to fear of repurcussions for their "negligence" the workers/scientists in the facility attempted to contain the outbreak, and did not report the magnitude of the situation to their superiors.

https://earthquaketrack.com/cn-12-wuhan/recent

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Doc Reeves

Doc Reeves 6434

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Full tin foil hat theory: 

1 month ago an earthquake hit Wuhan.  This earthquake damaged said bioweapons facility, causing infection.  Due to fear of repurcussions for their "negligence" the workers/scientists in the facility attempted to contain the outbreak, and did not report the magnitude of the situation to their superiors.

https://earthquaketrack.com/cn-12-wuhan/recent

Welp. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90664

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Doc Reeves said:


who knows what the truth is at this point, but the only thing keeping me from going full tinfoil hat on this is the gov. response. If the knew what they were dealing with I feel like they would have more quickly quarantined the city and airports

I keep thinking the CDC would fully shut down air travel with Asia if they felt it was bad enough.   Even if politicians tried to stop them, somebody would leak.   

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90664

Posted
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1 hour ago, Doc Reeves said:

 

Right on, but they were aware of shit in Dec. so maybe the gov. was just governmenting. Just seems they were shall we say ‘sluggish.’

of course maybe this is connected in that the facility was trying to refine a weapon which was then unknowingly transmitted to local wild bats and then made the jump to humans on its own resulting in the market epicenter. 

don’t know, but it’s probably going to be a movie on Netflix in 4 months either way

I keep thinking that some mid or lower-level bureaucrats fucked up and tried to prevent info from going upstairs.  

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Macanudo

Macanudo 13328

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Posted

I dont think this has anything to do with the bio-weapons lab.  I think this is good old indigent idiocy.  I read an article this week about China's meat industry.    Because so few, even in the cities, have anything close to full size refrigerators and even those that do still subscribe to "just slaughtered" meat.

Plus their affinity for wild animals that have no place being slaughtered in public, China, and a whole host of other messed up places are just powder kegs waiting to happen within our inter-connected modern world.  Couple that with an authoritarian government more concerned with bullshiting than the health of their citizens anyone else...

 Well, we're all screwed by that.

 

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futureman

futureman 22706

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Posted
1 hour ago, Helobious said:

The regular flu kills people of all ages too. Like I’ve already said, this virus is getting way too much attention to become a worldwide pandemic. Fears are too high already and too many precautions are already being taken. The next global plague will be something that comes out of nowhere & blindsides the world. Anything short of that won’t reach pandemic levels. It’s not 1919 anymore.

even it does wipe out 100 million people that really doesn’t put a dent in the problem of overpopulation.  mother earth could stand to lose a few billion. 

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Bevo

Bevo 13903

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Posted
8 minutes ago, futureman said:

even it does wipe out 100 million people that really doesn’t put a dent in the problem of overpopulation.  mother earth could stand to lose a few billion. 

Are you going to volunteer?

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1700

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Somnio said:

Full tin foil hat theory: 

1 month ago an earthquake hit Wuhan.  This earthquake damaged said bioweapons facility, causing infection.  Due to fear of repurcussions for their "negligence" the workers/scientists in the facility attempted to contain the outbreak, and did not report the magnitude of the situation to their superiors.

https://earthquaketrack.com/cn-12-wuhan/recent

Interesting, but a 5.0 earthquake 75 miles away not only isn't going to damage a bioweapons facility, it's probably isn't even going to be noticed.

 

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1700

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, F250 said:

Interactive Map of the coronavirus infections. South America is starting to look appealing, for now.

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That map looks nice, but they don't update the data very often.

This table and map that someone posted earlier seem to update much more often  (Currently showing 500+ more confirmed cases)

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

 

Edited by 0xdeadbeef
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Bevo

Bevo 13903

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Posted
8 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

That map looks nice, but they don't update the data very often.

This table and map that someone posted earlier seem to update much more often  (Currently showing 500+ more confirmed cases)

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

 

It looks like 0.4% of the people infected die of the disease if you omit Wuhan from the data. This means Wuhan cases are being seriously under-reported or the disease is more dangerous in Wuhan because it has been there longer and many of the people in serious condition later die. Check my calculations, but it appears like there should be something like 13,000 cases in Wuhan.

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