Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[MoJames 8,244]

6 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

The math on the confirmed number of cases and lethality has pretty much blown away the initial numbers regarding both lethality and severity of infection.

There are all sorts of concerns that they are purposely suppressing the official  cause of death in cases in an attempt to hopefully limit both the local and global panic it would cause.

At some point, especially if the death toll and number of infected follow the currents exponential rate, you will have to see large scale shutdown and quarantine of most of mainland China. As terrifying as this is from a human safety standpoint, a longterm quarantine (even something as short as 4 weeks) will cause an insane level of supply chain disruption that will heavily impact the global economy and tank the Chinese economy, which would more than likely set off the impending collapse of their over leveraged banking system.

Russia and N Korea have both closed off traffic of people (but not goods so far) on their shared borders. If you see them announce that all crossings are closed, (ie no goods as well) prepare for this to escalate quickly.  

Assuming you do not have you flu shot?

[Doc Reeves 6,434]

Lol. Russia’s boarder with China is a screen door thanks to the Russian and Chinese Mob

[Neonmoon 38,129]

5 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

Lol. Russia’s boarder with China is a screen door thanks to the Russian and Chinese Mob

 I look at the confirmed cases map and laugh at Russia with zero. Yeah fucking right. Maybe because Russia is a glorified mob run gas station and this will largely be ignored by them. They'll just fire bomb any cities that might have it and tell the world they had zero cases. 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Neonmoon

[Laxtonto 12,090]

4 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

Lol. Russia’s boarder with China is a screen door thanks to the Russian and Chinese Mob

It’s not the traffic, legal or illegal, that is the big point. It is if Russia can announce to the world they are closing the border then its a big enough player to see all of Asia institute a blanket ban as well. At that point shit will get crazy.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

 Can you imagine being stuck on a cruise ship with 6000 panic stricken fat fucks wilding in the hallways. I'd probably beg any grandpa I could find if to hold me out the observation deck windows. Fuck that.

No worries, just get in a lifeboat, head to shore, and declare yourself a refugee.

[drt 640]

26 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 I look at the confirmed cases map and laugh at Russia with zero. Yeah fucking right. Maybe because Russia is a glorified mob run gas station and this will largely be ignored by them. They'll just fire bomb any cities that might have it and tell the world they had zero cases. 

Meh, I imagine Russians would say it's just a combination of vodka and manliness that is keeping the virus at bay.

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

43 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

Lol. Russia’s boarder with China is a screen door thanks to the Russian and Chinese Mob

I once drunkenly ran into a screen door.  Hurt more than I expected.

[F250 28,788]

Some chick has been tweeting from the tainted cruise ship. She mentioned that things are relaxed on the ship the status of the two quarantined people will be confirmed later. I imagine at that point things will go crazy on the ship.

 

 

[Telegraph_it 3,358]

Is it bad that I am hoping the two people on the cruise ship have the WuFlu? I bet Maria's twitter feed will get lit. 

 

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

Just now, Telegraph_it said:

Is it bad that I am hoping the two people on the cruise ship have the WuFlu? I bet Maria's twitter feed will get lit. 

 

Yes, it's bad.  You should be ashamed.

Get the popcorn while you're up.

[InkaUtexas 26,006]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

Russia and N Korea have both closed off traffic of people (but not goods so far) on their shared borders. If you see them announce that all crossings are closed, (ie no goods as well) prepare for this to escalate quickly.  

Um.....

 

[Doc Reeves 6,434]

12 minutes ago, F250 said:

Some chick has been tweeting from the tainted cruise ship. She mentioned that things are relaxed on the ship the status of the two quarantined people will be confirmed later. I imagine at that point things will go crazy on the ship.

 

 

The sad thought of all those Spanish girls frighteningly drinking and fucking because some of them are undoubtedly going to die...  

I’ll be right back...

[Pato del Muerto 52,529]

14 minutes ago, F250 said:

Some chick has been tweeting from the tainted cruise ship. She mentioned that things are relaxed on the ship the status of the two quarantined people will be confirmed later. I imagine at that point things will go crazy on the ship.

 

 

Sometimes I feel I want to swim away 

I want to row away

from the ship that holds me 

tainted cruise whoa

[Laxtonto 12,090]

6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Um.....

 

Fuck

My guess is you will see the same announcement from Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam and then a full closing of the borders in a few days after.

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

Russia and N Korea have both closed off traffic of people (but not goods so far) on their shared borders. If you see them announce that all crossings are closed, (ie no goods as well) prepare for this to escalate quickly.  

 

8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Um.....

 

[Pato del Muerto 52,529]

Well that’s one way to fix our trade imbalance. Stop all trade. 

[Laxtonto 12,090]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Well that’s one way to fix our trade imbalance. Stop all trade. 

Stop all trade in the hopes that your people dont get sick while theirs do and therefore steal their cheap manufacturing exports to the US.

Not to go all CR but this combined with the tariffs should provide a hell of an incentive for a lot more firms to bail on chain.

[Mikey4 2,476]

The math on the confirmed number of cases and lethality has pretty much blown away the initial numbers regarding both lethality and severity of infection.
There are all sorts of concerns that they are purposely suppressing the official  cause of death in cases in an attempt to hopefully limit both the local and global panic it would cause.
At some point, especially if the death toll and number of infected follow the currents exponential rate, you will have to see large scale shutdown and quarantine of most of mainland China. As terrifying as this is from a human safety standpoint, a longterm quarantine (even something as short as 4 weeks) will cause an insane level of supply chain disruption that will heavily impact the global economy and tank the Chinese economy, which would more than likely set off the impending collapse of their over leveraged banking system.
Russia and N Korea have both closed off traffic of people (but not goods so far) on their shared borders. If you see them announce that all crossings are closed, (ie no goods as well) prepare for this to escalate quickly.  

The numbers I've been watching (in addition to the exponentially increasing infection count) are number of deaths compared to number of recoveries. In mainland China, 170 people have died, while only 124 people have recovered. So, out of the 294 people who have seen this thing to its end, ~60% died. That's pretty sobering.

That rate is certainly impacted by timing. Death can happen quickly, while recovery may take weeks or months. If the fatality rate is really as low as people are saying (2-3% is what I've read), then over the next few weeks, we should see the # recovered far surpass the # of deaths. But that's a presumption, and only time will tell. As of now, we don't know what the fatality rate will be.

[Pato del Muerto 52,529]

You don’t need a second test a month later to confirm death

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

10 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Stop all trade in the hopes that your people dont get sick while theirs do and therefore steal their cheap manufacturing exports to the US.

Not to go all CR but this combined with the tariffs should provide a hell of an incentive for a lot more firms to bail on chain.

You will never break the chain

[Mikey4 2,476]

You don’t need a second test a month later to confirm death

Right. What we don't know is how many of the infected are basically recovered but just waiting for confirmation, versus how many are on death's door.

[Laxtonto 12,090]

Just now, Mikey4 said:

The numbers I've been watching (in addition to the exponentially increasing infection count) are number of deaths compared to number of recoveries. In mainland China, 170 people have died, while only 124 people have recovered. So, out of the 294 people who have seen this thing to its end, ~60% died. That's pretty sobering.

That rate is certainly impacted by timing. Death can happen quickly, while recovery may take weeks or months. If the fatality rate is really as low as people are saying (2-3% is what I've read), then over the next few weeks, we should see the # recovered far surpass the # of deaths. But that's a presumption, and only time will tell. As of now, we don't know what the fatality rate will be.

Ive seen projections as low as the 2 to 3% and as high as 10-12%. The problem is that if it is even at the 6% level it will have catastrophic effects due to the ease in transference among the population and how the drive to modernize China has brought huge swaths of people living in very condensed areas. This is to me is much much more frightening than SARs and Ebola and I am not sure what is a good corollary to how bad this could get because I think the Spanish Flu comparison is somewhat overblown due to advances in medical treatment. The concern is not the death toll initially but instead the transfer rare overwhelming medical facilities and the resulting panic that would cause to ensue. 

[Player 4,575]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

You don’t need a second test a month later to confirm death

But what if you're only mostly dead? 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

7 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

You will never break the chain

Nose running in the shadow

Edited January 30, 2020 by clapclapclap

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

What still seems like a mystery, and shouldn't be IMO, is this - let's assume I'm a reasonably healthy, middle-aged man.  If I get this is it "a mild cold" or "bedridden for 6 weeks?"  Or is this like West Nile where it's a lottery for meningitis but otherwise fairly mild?  I mean, the flu kills tens of thousands of people every year, but for most people it's just a really shitty 5-10 days.

Reports on severity are all over the place even though thousands of folks have been infected for over a week.  I would have thought there'd be more on what to expect if you get it other than "possible difficulty breathing."

[Blotto 23,560]

For those in the mood to gamble(not invest), FXI is an ETF tracking large cap stocks on China. I've been buying puts and rolling profits into puts for next week. If the hype machine goes crazy this weekend, I can see some panic selling. Of course, here in the US we may need a couple more weeks of focus on Kobe before we can move onto less important topics.

Edited January 30, 2020 by Blotto

[InkaUtexas 26,006]

 

[Doc Reeves 6,434]

It begins

[Parliament 14,262]

For otherwise healthy adults aged 20-50, what's the fatality rate of this? Fairly low, right?

[MoJames 8,244]

Just now, Parliament said:

For otherwise healthy adults aged 20-50, what's the fatality rate of this? Fairly low, right?

110%

[Brisketexan 105,161]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

For otherwise healthy adults aged 20-50, what's the fatality rate of this? Fairly low, right?

[Doc Reeves 6,434]

5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

For otherwise healthy adults aged 20-50, what's the fatality rate of this? Fairly low, right?

Shit, we should know pretty well in about 2 weeks

Edited January 30, 2020 by Doc Reeves

[InkaUtexas 26,006]

A close contact of one of the patients in the U.S. with coronavirus has been infected with the illness, the first evidence that the new virus has spread person-to-person in this country, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Thursday.

The new patient lives with a Chicago woman in her 60s who was diagnosed after returning last month from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak that's now sickened upward of 8,000 people.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-spreads-first-time-u-s-cdc-says-n1126566

[Bevo 13,579]

I am a little confused by the most recent data. Using the BNO https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ tracker, it is surprising that there has been a huge jump in the number of serious and number of critical patients in Wuhan. It is now showing in Wuhan that there are 4,586 cases, 162 death, 711 serious, and 277 critical. That would be catastrophic if true. But it can't be true. Before, I was looking at mortality rates at about 0.4% outside of Wuhan and now a mortality rate of 0.25% outside of Wuhan.  I would suspect this range would hold true. But, Wuhan is giving me some doubt - I still suspect that Wuhan has 5X more cases than they are admitting but to me this increases the fear factor rather decreasing it. A mortality rate of 3.5% in Wuhan with 711 serious and 277 critical patients would be about as bad as it gets.

[GreenspointTexas 9,662]

Lmao. China, the US, and others really dicked this up... favoring more on profitability and saving face than anything else

 

the minute wuhan was quarantined, all flights to china should have stopped from the US. Stopping flights now is doing nothing. Hilariously bad management of this whole thing from an epidemiological standpoint by everyone

[Neonmoon 38,129]

25 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

[MissingInAction 25,113]

Well this is playing out like the beginning of every pandemic movie. Any data on arms sales since this started?

[michaelpshayes 417]

[MoJames 8,244]

[Neonmoon 38,129]

3 minutes ago, MoJames said:

More like

[BrickHorn 18,241]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Sometimes I feel I want to swim away 

I want to row away

from the ship that holds me 

tainted cruise whoa Love Boh-oh-oat

 

[atomheartbevo 89,735]

2 hours ago, Mikey4 said:

The numbers I've been watching (in addition to the exponentially increasing infection count) are number of deaths compared to number of recoveries. In mainland China, 170 people have died, while only 124 people have recovered. So, out of the 294 people who have seen this thing to its end, ~60% died. That's pretty sobering.

That rate is certainly impacted by timing. Death can happen quickly, while recovery may take weeks or months. If the fatality rate is really as low as people are saying (2-3% is what I've read), then over the next few weeks, we should see the # recovered far surpass the # of deaths. But that's a presumption, and only time will tell. As of now, we don't know what the fatality rate will be.

1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

What still seems like a mystery, and shouldn't be IMO, is this - let's assume I'm a reasonably healthy, middle-aged man.  If I get this is it "a mild cold" or "bedridden for 6 weeks?"  Or is this like West Nile where it's a lottery for meningitis but otherwise fairly mild?  I mean, the flu kills tens of thousands of people every year, but for most people it's just a really shitty 5-10 days.

Reports on severity are all over the place even though thousands of folks have been infected for over a week.  I would have thought there'd be more on what to expect if you get it other than "possible difficulty breathing."

The first few dozen were primarily older and had underlying medical conditions that had already affected their immune systems.    

Basically, it sounded like it was folks that the flu might have claimed   

Right now, if the BNO tracker is correct, it’s around 20% critical/severe.   We hit a thousand sick almost a week ago.  It seems like the deaths should have really started ramping up.   I’m not personally worried about the deaths, it’s the transmission issue.   

Would be nice if we could see the timetable on those getting the second negative test.   I’m wondering though, if somebody who tests negative gets shuffled down the queue, while they use the test kits for suspected.  

Speaking of, have they ever said how many they are testing per day?  Are they still behind, are they on top of it, are they getting a lot of negatives.  

[Gil Bang 25,978]

https://thepointsguy.com/news/a-look-inside-the-747-that-evacuated-americans-from-wuhan/?utm_campaign=thepointsguy&tw=1&utm_medium=social&utm_content=3EC23F18-439B-11EA-93CE-F2894744363C&utm_term=editorial&utm_source=twitter

[MoJames 8,244]

https://maphub.net/Fuuuuuuu/map

[MissingInAction 25,113]

I for one welcome our new Ape overlords.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

India having its first case will test their precautions they took when the outbreak was first announced. It was a student who was attending school in Wuhan and returned to India.

[Pato del Muerto 52,529]

Africa and South America remain untouched?

[MoJames 8,244]

Everyone is going to try to move to Iceland before long.

[InkaUtexas 26,006]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Africa and South America remain untouched?

saw somewhere there was a potential case in the Ivory Coast. a few in South America but the news has gone quiet on them. 

[InkaUtexas 26,006]

Doctor in France is sick. Also Italy has first cases, not from ship. 

Timeline (GMT)

30 January

• 21:32: First 2 cases in Italy. (Source)
• 19:00: 1 new case in France. (Source)
• 18:06: 1 new case in the United States. First U.S. case of human-to-human transmission. (Source)
• 17:20: 2 new cases in Hong Kong. (Source)
• 17:10: 3 new cases in Gansu province, China. The fourth case in the press release was previously reported. (Source)

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/