Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Laxtonto 12090]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Let me jump in here and mention that the flu killed 80K in the US in 2018 to put it in perspective.

Let me jump in and say that there were 300M cases or something like that in the US. Lethality of 0.1% is the standard flu. Lethality of this is ranging anywhere of low estimates of 2% and extreme estimates of 11%.

 

So to put it into perspective if only 10% of the number of flu cases were instead this Wuhan virus, you are looking at 600k to 3.3M deaths. That is the concern. The issue is not the current numbers but what this would mean if the virus spreads to a larger contingent of the population globally. To hit 30M cases would require this to spread to less than 2.7% of the entire Chinese population.

 

The reason why some people that model these things are freaking out is that we haven't hit a point where this has stagnated and so there is serious concern in how many possible cases would be at the top end of the spectrum. If it falls in the bottom left of the red box below is one thing, top right it WAY scarier (note its on a log scale).

NY Times

If you really want to get spooked think about this spreading to Venezuela or Syria

Edited January 31, 2020 by Laxtonto

[DaysOff 7958]

Delta and American have announced they are cancelling all flights to China. 

We'll take your money.

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

I work in Kazakhstan 28 days at a time and then have 28 days off. Some of my colleagues rotate in and out of China. We all work in a big man camp where everyone is in close proximity 24 hours a day. I’m supposed to start flying back over to work on February 5th. 
 

this is not looking so great right now. So many unknowns and a lot of unusual stuff going on. 

[MissingInAction 25110]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

I work in Kazakhstan 28 days at a time and then have 28 days off. Some of my colleagues rotate in and out of China. We all work in a big man camp where everyone is in close proximity 24 hours a day. I’m supposed to start flying back over to work on February 5th. 
 

this is not looking so great right now. So many unknowns and a lot of unusual stuff going on. 

Well you could be looking at a sweet reckless endangerment suit against your employer if you catch it. 

[Dbeasy 15072]

Let me jump in and say that there were 300M cases or something like that in the US. Lethality of 0.1% is the standard flu. Lethality of this is ranging anywhere of low estimates of 2% and extreme estimates of 11%.
 
So to put it into perspective if only 10% of the number of flu cases were instead this Wuhan virus, you are looking at 600k to 3.3M deaths. That is the concern. The issue is not the current numbers but what this would mean if the virus spreads to a larger contingent of the population globally. To hit 30M cases would require this to spread to less than 2.7% of the entire Chinese population.
 
The reason why some people that model these things are freaking out is that we haven't hit a point where this has stagnated and so there is serious concern in how many possible cases would be at the top end of the spectrum.

NY Times
If you really want to get spooked think about this spreading to Venezuela or Syria

300m cases in the us can’t be right. That would be most of the population.

[Laxtonto 12090]

Just now, Dbeasy said:

 

300m cases in the us can’t be right. That would be most of the population.

I had the flu 3 times last year. Some people get it more  some never do. And if I am over estimating the number of occurrences then it say drops to 100M cases then you are still looking at 200 to 1M dead and an even smaller chunk of the Chinese population to reach that

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

 

300m cases in the us can’t be right. That would be most of the population.

 

About to post that.  300M cases would be every single person having the flu.

Also, don’t discount that the Chinese population is disproportionately older thanks to the one child policy.  The traditional flu kills mostly olds.

[Zepol87 9188]

 

 

[Deej 76839]

3 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I had the flu 3 times last year. 

You might want to live in one of those bubbles. 

[Somnio 751]

3 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

300m cases in the us can’t be right. That would be most of the population.

 

Google says 3 million in the US annually.

Scary thought, if there ended up being that many cases of Coronavirus in the US over the next year, and "only" 1% die that's 30,000 deaths in the US alone.

I'm not trying to be a fear monger, but isn't it thought this is more contagious than the flu?  If so isn't 3 million US cases over the next year a real possibility?  Isn't 1% on the low end of this things lethality?

I'm sure I'm looking at this wrong.

[Neonmoon 38129]

This could suck. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00236-9

Quote

•  
• Is the virus here to stay?

When a virus circulates continuously in a community, it is said to be endemic. The viruses that cause chicken pox and influenza are endemic in many countries, but outbreaks can be controlled through vaccination and keeping people at home when they are ill.

One big question is whether the coronavirus is also here to stay. If efforts to contain it fail, there’s a high chance that it will become endemic. As with influenza, this could mean that deaths occur every year as the virus circulates, until a vaccine is developed. If the virus can be spread by people who are infected but don’t have symptoms, it will be more difficult to control its spread, making it more likely that the virus will become endemic.

There have been several cases of infected people displaying no symptoms, but it’s still unclear whether such asymptomatic or mild cases are common, and whether or how infectious they are. “We’re possibly looking at a virus that’s going to be with us for a long time, possibly forever,” says Mackay.

 

Asymptomatic cases set the new virus apart from the related coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). There was a global outbreak of this virus in 2002–03, but it usually spread only once people were ill enough to need hospital care. Once outbreaks in hospitals were brought under control, SARS was contained. There is no evidence that the virus is still circulating in humans, says Mackay.

If control measures are effective, and transmission slows so that each infected person infects no more than one other person, the current outbreak could simply peter out, says Cowling.

 

[MoJames 8244]

1 minute ago, Somnio said:

Google says 3 million in the US annually.

Scary thought, if there ended up being that many cases of Coronavirus in the US over the next year, and "only" 1% die that's 30,000 deaths in the US alone.

I'm not trying to be a fear monger, but isn't it thought this is more contagious than the flu?  If so isn't 3 million US cases over the next year a real possibility?  Isn't 1% on the low end of this things lethality?

I'm sure I'm looking at this wrong.

The other side of the coin is there could be a substantial amount of people with Corona Virus that do not become sick enough to go to the doctor and therefore those being diagnosed are the ones who are at more risk to die.

[XYZ 2154]

Idiot at work coughing and sniffling. Another idiot goes “you OK?”. Coughing idiot goes “yeah, I just have flu symptoms”. WTF? Stay at home you fucking asshole.

[Trey3216 15349]

2 hours ago, purplepride95 said:

Someone shop the jersey reversal  

[Continental Op 3934]

 

 

Fuck yeah let's do this

[JesusSweatDuck 17784]

3 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Idiot at work coughing and sniffling. Another idiot goes “you OK?”. Coughing idiot goes “yeah, I just have flu symptoms”. WTF? Stay at home you fucking asshole.

I will never understand the come to work sick thing especially this day and age.  Work from home you asshole or take a day off.  No one will complain if you have the flu

[BabaYaga 15301]

53 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

I work in Kazakhstan 28 days at a time and then have 28 days off. Some of my colleagues rotate in and out of China. We all work in a big man camp where everyone is in close proximity 24 hours a day. I’m supposed to start flying back over to work on February 5th. 
 

this is not looking so great right now. So many unknowns and a lot of unusual stuff going on. 

Fucking great.  This is your fault!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

13 minutes ago, MoJames said:

The other side of the coin is there could be a substantial amount of people with Corona Virus that do not become sick enough to go to the doctor and therefore those being diagnosed are the ones who are at more risk to die.

China still has a strong tradition with eastern medical practices even with doctors that are trained as western doctors.  It’s very possible that some of the dead were held back from scientific treatments initially and instead had some tea or a special soup. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

1 hour ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

I work in Kazakhstan 28 days at a time and then have 28 days off. Some of my colleagues rotate in and out of China. We all work in a big man camp where everyone is in close proximity 24 hours a day. I’m supposed to start flying back over to work on February 5th. 
 

this is not looking so great right now. So many unknowns and a lot of unusual stuff going on. 

Do you interact with many locals? If so what do they think about Astana becoming Nur-Sultan?

[InkaUtexas 26003]

14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

China still has a strong tradition with eastern medical practices even with doctors that are trained as western doctors.  It’s very possible that some of the dead were held back from scientific treatments initially and instead had some tea or a special soup. 

hehehe, this is all over Austin as well. If ya get sick I am sure my ex can prescribe some crystals and tea therapy. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

16 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I will never understand the come to work sick thing especially this day and age.  Work from home you asshole or take a day off.  No one will complain if you have the flu

They'll passive aggressively be pissed off at you at my job. I had an illness keep me out a week last year (it included hospitalization) and I got texts everyday because they are short staffed and my replacement didn't have lending capabilities so money was lost. It was completely their fault for being short staffed, but that didn't stop them from complaining...good stuff.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

28 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I will never understand the come to work sick thing especially this day and age.  Work from home you asshole or take a day off.  No one will complain if you have the flu

For the people that have the option, they should stay home. But some can't afford the day off and/or they basically have to use PTO which they consider vacation time.

[RollLeft 5045]

1 hour ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

I work in Kazakhstan 28 days at a time and then have 28 days off. Some of my colleagues rotate in and out of China. We all work in a big man camp where everyone is in close proximity 24 hours a day. I’m supposed to start flying back over to work on February 5th. 
 

this is not looking so great right now. So many unknowns and a lot of unusual stuff going on. 

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

17 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Do you interact with many locals? If so what do they think about Astana becoming Nur-Sultan?

Haha. Yea it’s like 90% nationals out there. Most of them think it’s pretty ridiculous. The government is seen as fairly corrupt unfortunately. I do think that Nazarbayev did a good job of keeping Kazakhstan out of the problems that many of the other stans have had but they have a long way to go still. 

[Pato del Muerto 52529]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

Let me jump in and say that there were 300M cases or something like that in the US. Lethality of 0.1% is the standard flu. Lethality of this is ranging anywhere of low estimates of 2% and extreme estimates of 11%.

 

So to put it into perspective if only 10% of the number of flu cases were instead this Wuhan virus, you are looking at 600k to 3.3M deaths. That is the concern. The issue is not the current numbers but what this would mean if the virus spreads to a larger contingent of the population globally. To hit 30M cases would require this to spread to less than 2.7% of the entire Chinese population.

 

The reason why some people that model these things are freaking out is that we haven't hit a point where this has stagnated and so there is serious concern in how many possible cases would be at the top end of the spectrum. If it falls in the bottom left of the red box below is one thing, top right it WAY scarier (note its on a log scale).

NY Times

If you really want to get spooked think about this spreading to Venezuela or Syria

They should t use logarithmic scale for the Y axis in that chart. Too many people won’t read it properly. 

[atomheartbevo 89735]

42 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Scary thought, if there ended up being that many cases of Coronavirus in the US over the next year, and "only" 1% die that's 30,000 deaths in the US alone.

On last year's flu season....

"In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died."

Now drill down into those stats, and most of those hospitalized and/or dead were older and/or had various contributing factors (compromised immune systems, pneumonia developed, etc.).  

Lots of interesting stats here:  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Such as, since last fall, just within this flu season, we've had 68 pediatrics deaths attributed to it.

And Pneumonia/Flu are a wicked combination the compared to all deaths: 

Quote

Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance 

Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on January 30, 2020, 6.7% of the deaths occurring during the week ending January 18, 2020 (week 3) were due to P&I. This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 3.

And even though we are a ways away from being done with flu season, the numbers are surprising (for some)

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 19 million flu illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from flu."

[Somnio 751]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

On last year's flu season....

"In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died."

Now drill down into those stats, and most of those hospitalized and/or dead were older and/or had various contributing factors (compromised immune systems, pneumonia developed, etc.).  

Lots of interesting stats here:  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Such as, since last fall, just within this flu season, we've had 68 pediatrics deaths attributed to it.

And Pneumonia/Flu are a wicked combination the compared to all deaths: 

And even though we are a ways away from being done with flu season, the numbers are surprising (for some)

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 19 million flu illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from flu."

Yeah, those numbers are bad.

But imagine 19 million Coronavirus illnesses, with about 10 million hospitalizations, and 190,000 deaths in addition to the flu virus numbers.

Pretty fucking horrific death toll, and the effects on the economy and lives will be devastating.

Edited January 31, 2020 by Somnio

[GreenspointTexas 9661]

I still dont understand why the majority of the business in the world has to be done in person

 

its 2020, skype motherfuckers or facetime em or something. Traveling for business always cracks me up

[InkaUtexas 26003]

Just now, GreenspointTexas said:

I still dont understand why the majority of the business in the world has to be done in person

 

its 2020, skype motherfuckers or facetime em or something. Traveling for business always cracks me up

Marriotts 

[MoJames 8244]

4 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I still dont understand why the majority of the business in the world has to be done in person

 

its 2020, skype motherfuckers or facetime em or something. Traveling for business always cracks me up

Patients get all bitchy when you start talking telemed.

[Surly Bevo 25060]

5 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I still dont understand why the majority of the business in the world has to be done in person

 

its 2020, skype motherfuckers or facetime em or something. Traveling for business always cracks me up

In doses it works but humans have some fucking low attention spans these days and you put them in remote meeting after remote meeting where they got Surly and porn and Insta and everything else distracting them on the side and a lot of shit doesn't get done or gets done real slowly and poorly.  

 

[Rip76 4943]

25 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I still dont understand why the majority of the business in the world has to be done in person

 

its 2020, skype motherfuckers or facetime em or something. Traveling for business always cracks me up

Just thinking this same thing.

[Somnio 751]

32 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I still dont understand why the majority of the business in the world has to be done in person

 

its 2020, skype motherfuckers or facetime em or something. Traveling for business always cracks me up

Dawg, don't be fucking with people's work travel!  Marriott?  Rental car?  Per diem?  Out of town strange?!?

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

Just now, Somnio said:

Dawg, don't be fucking with people's work travel!  Marriott?  Rental car?  Per diem?  Out of town strange?!?

This.  Gotta keep airline status somehow.

[clapclapclap 9000]

Soooooo...I'm not going to take the word of a blue check, the supposed paper hasn't been peer reviewed, and of course any phony can twitter troll some panic.  But I'll just leave this here:

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by clapclapclap
Pretty pictures, at least

[Loco 3752]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

I had the flu 3 times last year. 

Wash your hands you dirty cretin!

[JesusSweatDuck 17784]

1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

They'll passive aggressively be pissed off at you at my job. I had an illness keep me out a week last year (it included hospitalization) and I got texts everyday because they are short staffed and my replacement didn't have lending capabilities so money was lost. It was completely their fault for being short staffed, but that didn't stop them from complaining...good stuff.

They'd be really short staffed if you came in with the Flu and half the office was sick.  I'll never understand this short sighted thinking from an employer.

[MoJames 8244]

5 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Soooooo...I'm not going to take the word of a blue check, the supposed paper hasn't been peer reviewed, and of course any phony can twitter troll some panic.  But I'll just leave this here:

 

 

 

[Bevo 13579]

11 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Soooooo...I'm not going to take the word of a blue check, the supposed paper hasn't been peer reviewed, and of course any phony can twitter troll some panic.  But I'll just leave this here:

 

 

 

Never trust a scientific article that begins with OMG.

[InkaUtexas 26003]

6 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

They'd be really short staffed if you came in with the Flu and half the office was sick.  I'll never understand this short sighted thinking from an employer.

 feel the same way about schools. Bitch about attendance, require a damn note. Most kids do not need to go to the doctor for the Flu. They need to sleep, eat what they can and stay away from other kids. 

CLEVES, Ohio (CBS Local) — An entire school district in Ohio was shut down for two days this week after nearly 600 students called in sick, the district’s superintendent said.

All classes and after school activities at Three Rivers Local School District in Cleves were cancelled for Thursday, Jan. 30 and Friday, Jan. 31. because of a major flu outbreak.

https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/01/30/school-district-closes-for-two-days-after-600-students-call-in-sick/

[Laxtonto 12090]

11 minutes ago, Loco said:

Wash your hands you dirty cretin!

I have kids under 4 and teach at a university. I’m pretty much screwed regardless how diligent I am regarding potential contamination.

[MoJames 8244]

Reddit fun.

Quote

bojotheclown

53 points·1 hour ago·edited 1 hour ago

Tin foil hat time. One of the leads at the Wuhan Virology Institute was working on understanding coronaviruses in bats and the mechanisms through which bats can be infected but not symptomatic.

You know what else survives for a long time in a mammalian host without making the host ill? Fucking HIV.

Quote

waytoomuchcoffee

41 points·48 minutes ago·edited 34 minutes ago

I’m sure this non peer reviewed paper with five main authors with gmail accounts who seem to be students at a 12 year old school in India are completely at the top of their games

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1223305946723704832

[InkaUtexas 26003]

1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

I have kids under 4 and teach at a university. I’m pretty much screwed regardless how diligent I am regarding potential contamination.

Wash their hands. 

[Loco 3752]

10 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I have kids under 4 and teach at a university. I’m pretty much screwed regardless how diligent I am regarding potential contamination.

Sounds like Ms Laxtono is a little dirty too...NICE

 

So you picked up 3 different strains in the same year and blame your kids?  You do know they have vaccines, right? (match & drift, blah blah) 

 

I am sorry to hear of your impending doom.  We'll pencil you in on the wreath fund.

Edited January 31, 2020 by Loco

[InkaUtexas 26003]

1 minute ago, Loco said:

I am sorry to hear of your impending doom.  We'll pencil crayon you in on the wreath fund.

 

[MoJames 8244]

Quote

This study is crap.

My comment from another thread. This paper isn't peer reviewed or published. It's just an online journal.

I've worked pretty closely with gag in my PhD thesis. Gag is the conglomerate protein that gets cut by the protease to generate the hiv capsid, matrix, and carrier proteins. Gp120 is the receptor protein.

This is a really fucking dumb study and these scientists should be ashamed. Those amino acids are so short. They just went and looked for a virus to match. You can go and blast the amino acids yourself. Just copy and paste from the journal entry into NCBIs BLASTp. I did it and there's hundreds of matches to those sequences. HIV didn't even come up in the first 100. The 4th residue is missing like 6 amino acids. There are conserved regions in viruses. Their "gp120" match compares 6 amino acids out of 850 in the whole protein for example.

They found 4 sections that were in the new virus but not SARS. They then took these differences and ran them against all known viral proteins. They only looked at proteins with 100% matches, but if you look at the table they didn't match 100% for alignment. So like one is ABCEFG and they match it to an HIV protein that is ABCXYZEFG and they are calling those total matches. There's also tons of viruses that match these tiny sequences, they just noticed all 4 have HIV matches so they ignore the other matches and only looked at HIV.

Go blast it yourself if you want.

Another reddit entry.

[BrickHorn 18239]

37 minutes ago, MoJames said:

Go blast it yourself if you want.

Not a bad idea, tbh

[InkaUtexas 26003]

 

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652]

So Reddit is saying the Chinese made an airborne aids?  Joy. 

[Telegraph_it 3358]

Also asking US citizens who traveled through China (maybe just Hubai province) to self quarantine at home for 14 days.

edit: from the WH briefing:

1.    ⁠Tests are inaccurate and can give false negatives. 
2.    ⁠The virus can be spread by people who are asymptomatic.
3.    ⁠We don't know much of anything about the virus.

 

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Telegraph_it