Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Deej 76836]

9 minutes ago, RayDog said:

To keep patients from leaving without paying. At least that is how it works in the Philippines. Hospitals effectively hold the patient for ransom.

That, and to keep theives out.

How are you not dead yet?

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

1 hour ago, RayDog said:

To keep patients from leaving without paying. At least that is how it works in the Philippines. Hospitals effectively hold the patient for ransom.

That, and to keep theives out.

Kidney thieves?

[atomheartbevo 89735]

NYTimes has a long, but solid article

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html

Quote

It’s unclear exactly how accurate tests done in overwhelmed Chinese laboratories are. On the one hand, Chinese state media have reported test kit shortages and processing bottlenecks, which could produce an undercount.

But Dr. Lipkin said he knew of one lab running 5,000 samples a day, which might produce some false-positive results, inflating the count. “You can’t possibly do quality control at that rate,” he said.

 

[atomheartbevo 89735]

This guy had bad luck   Two hours on a layover in Wuhan

https://vietnamnews.vn/society/591720/viet-nam-confirms-seventh-coronavirus-case.html

Quote

An American national was confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus on Sunday morning, bringing the total number of cases in Việt Nam to seven.

According to the Ministry of Health, the 73-year-old American Vietnamese had a two-hour transit in Wuhan, China on his China Southern Airlines flight from the US to Việt Nam on January 15. He arrived at Tân Sơn Nhất Airport in HCM City the next day and since then stayed at Triều Hân hotel in District 3.

The patient was reported to have started feeling ill on January 26, with severe coughing and breathing difficulties but without other typical symptoms of the coronavirus like a high fever and muscle aches.

Reinforces my theory that some of the travelers/foreigners caught it from an infected airport worker, because on the 15th, even with say tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases, the odds of encountering an infected person in a city of 11 million is pretty low.  

[atomheartbevo 89735]

So 350 out of 361 deaths are in Hubei Province.  97%  Hubei has 60% of confirmed mainland China cases.    

On the one hand, they are pouring their resources into Hubei, but there should have still been more than a handful of deaths   

Also, the dead person in the Philippines was supposedly Chinese, which means it has only killed Chinese.   Alex Jones: “Clearly, the Chinese government engineered a bio-weapon to bring back their one-child policy, and it backfired!”

[Bevo 13579]

17,205 cases

361 deaths

2,296 serious

475 recovered

21,558 suspected

[atomheartbevo 89735]

That 475 recovered is a huge number, since it takes a couple of weeks to be cleared, and the ones in the hospitals being declared recovered, represent the sickest of those infected.  

This was an interesting/insightful comment from one of the better reddits, which mirrors all of the photos and videos of empty streets and subways and rail stations   

”R0 is not static, and it's only 2.6 if unsuspecting people interact with each other "normally": go to work or school, use public transportation, use shopping centers, etc.

But almost all of China is on a government mandated "vacation":

• people stay at home
• cinemas are closed,
• public transportation between provinces is down in large parts, local public transportation is very sparsely used,
• streets are empty
• people go shopping every 1-2 days for essentials, into mostly empty shops, wearing facemasks.

This reduces the "effective R0" well below 1.0, below the threshold of exponential spreading.”

——-

The only issue is the 14 days thing.  

[Parliament 14261]

So it's not happening?

[Pato del Muerto 52529]

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So it's not happening?

Never was. This is the annual germ freak out driven by 3M and Purell. 

[Telegraph_it 3358]

Well it could be happening maybe. 
 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89735]

20 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So it's not happening?

It is if you’re in China for another few weeks.   

[Bevo 13579]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It is if you’re in China for another few weeks.   

I would be surprised if China can contain it. It is pretty much all over the country.

[atomheartbevo 89735]

13 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I would be surprised if China can contain it. It is pretty much all over the country.

Oh, it’s bad.  I would not be surprised if 50,000-100,000 or more are infected in China.   But it doesn’t seem as deadly as initial reports made it out to be, and all of the restrictions should help the numbers within a few weeks, once the 14-day period is met.  Testing us being improved as well   

I trust the numbers on recovered, although they do appear to be only the ones admitted to hospital.   I think they are behind on death counts, but probably not by too much.  

I think it will cut a helluva swathe through undeveloped nations who can’t throw together three thousand-bed hospitals in less than two weeks.  

[Bevo 13579]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Oh, it’s bad.  I would not be surprised if 50,000-100,000 or more are infected in China.   But it doesn’t seem as deadly as initial reports made it out to be, and all of the restrictions should help the numbers within a few weeks, once the 14-day period is met.  Testing us being improved as well   

I trust the numbers on recovered, although they do appear to be only the ones admitted to hospital.   I think they are behind on death counts, but probably not by too much.  

I think it will cut a helluva swathe through undeveloped nations who can’t throw together three thousand-bed hospitals in less than two weeks.  

I have had my doubts on mortality rates since my numbers were showing approximately 0.3% while the news was reporting 6-10%. However, it seems extremely contagious and the only thing keeping numbers down is an authoritarian government that can quarantine cities and a scared population that is self-isolating for the most part. If it was being treated the same as the flu in the US where little Johnny still goes to school with his fever, we would have been screwed. We still might be screwed but keeping that Ro manageable is promising. The question remains what is going to happen in the 10-15 provinces in China that already have over a hundred cases? Are we going to see Wuhan type numbers or will those numbers stay below 1000 cases? A government mandated vacation in all of China makes the disease seem manageable.

[Laxtonto 12090]

Shanghai Composite opened down 9% and they have banned short selling.... 10% haircut doesn’t crater their outlook for the next few months but essentially erased the last 12 months of gains.

The next 10 days will determine the how the global economy will deal with this for the rest of the year. 

[wild_turkey 3167]

Even if this virus becomes contained and the mortality rate ends up being low, I’m still curious about the impact to the Chinese economy and the ripple effects throughout the global economy. It seems like best case scenario is the quarantines in Wuhan and other cities could last several more weeks. Imagine if every city in Texas was suddenly shut down for a month or longer.

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Oh, it’s bad.  I would not be surprised if 50,000-100,000 or more are infected in China.   But it doesn’t seem as deadly as initial reports made it out to be, and all of the restrictions should help the numbers within a few weeks, once the 14-day period is met.  Testing us being improved as well   

I trust the numbers on recovered, although they do appear to be only the ones admitted to hospital.   I think they are behind on death counts, but probably not by too much.  

I think it will cut a helluva swathe through undeveloped nations who can’t throw together three thousand-bed hospitals in less than two weeks.  

I am curious how many people the Chinese couple infected in the Philippines as they traveled from Cebu, Dumaguette, and Manila. Most Filipinos spend any money they have within 24 hours, so keeping people from working  is not going to work for more than a couple days. Most families eat from the same spoon and drink from the same glass, so it will spread to an entire family quickly. That said, they have amazing immune systems.

There was a rumor that a patient had the virus at a local hospital and people stopped going. I took my gf there on Saturday and it had a third of the normal number of people there and her doctor did not show up. The medical facilities can't handle it and they can't handle the bodies. They are big on open casket funerals here, and not big on cremation.

Things will be very different here if thousands of people get sick.

[workswithseed 2112]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

Shanghai Composite opened down 9% and they have banned short selling.... 10% haircut doesn’t crater their outlook for the next few months but essentially erased the last 12 months of gains.

The next 10 days will determine the how the global economy will deal with this for the rest of the year. 

My friend put all his money on shorting China. 

[Brisketexan 105160]

9 hours ago, workswithseed said:

My friend put all his money on shorting China. 

[F250 28786]

22 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well China IS stealing trade secrets from Aggy. You get what you pay for. 

What would the Chinese want with a robotic athropomorphic sheep?

[PilotsError 2300]

Monday, 03 February 2020

Citing Coronavirus, China Locks Down Wenzhou and Its 9 Million People

 

In an ominous new development, the Chinese government has locked down the city of Wenzhou, China’s 15th largest, a growing sign that the coronavirus outbreak is defying efforts of the Chinese government to contain it. Wenzhou is a very important industrial, technological, cultural, and academic center on the coast of southern Zhejiang Province, across from Taiwan. Wenzhou has become the first Chinese city outside of the Wuhan area to be locked down.

Wenzhou’s nine million inhabitants are known for their strong business aptitude, and are nicknamed the “Jews of China.” Wenzhou is also known for producing hundreds of world-class mathematicians, and for forging close ties with Taiwan’s tech sector. The city also has one of China’s largest concentrations of Christians, who have sporadically come under severe persecution since the Chinese communists came to power in 1949.

 

Zhejiang Province has the highest incidence of coronavirus outside central Hubei Province, where Wuhan is located, with more than 660 confirmed infections, at least 265 of them in Wenzhou.

As of now, the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases has risen above 17,000, while the death toll has surpassed 360 — significant numbers, to be sure, but still far from constituting an apocalyptic pandemic.

What has been apocalyptic has been the Chinese government’s response to the Wuhan virus. With its lockdown of a major city more than 800 kilometers (497 miles) from Wuhan, it has signaled its willingness to go to any lengths to maintain the appearance of control. Whether such appearances, and the fears that have triggered them, are warranted, remains to be seen.

 

https://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/asia/item/34794-citing-coronavirus-china-locks-down-wenzhou-and-its-9-million-people?fbclid=IwAR0NidPwAZJp2EM6SI0aggnNtMm6DqeJ0Kp661jvnlGHZmYaaOcYl8WLhT8

[Parliament 14261]

Wasn't it locked down already?

[PilotsError 2300]

I don't know, just saw it published today and all the names look the same to me./no racist

[Brisketexan 105160]

Wenzhou see it, you’ll shit bricks.

[atomheartbevo 89735]

So the China Flu subreddit, the best of the Reddit’s about it, have a spiffymlittle site to sum everything up.

https://ncov2019.live/data

and given how anal-retentive that sub is, everything is sourced.  

Edited February 3, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Bevo Num1 1021]

Monday, 03 February 2020
Citing Coronavirus, China Locks Down Wenzhou and Its 9 Million People
 

In an ominous new development, the Chinese government has locked down the city of Wenzhou, China’s 15th largest, a growing sign that the coronavirus outbreak is defying efforts of the Chinese government to contain it. Wenzhou is a very important industrial, technological, cultural, and academic center on the coast of southern Zhejiang Province, across from Taiwan. Wenzhou has become the first Chinese city outside of the Wuhan area to be locked down.
Wenzhou’s nine million inhabitants are known for their strong business aptitude, and are nicknamed the “Jews of China.” Wenzhou is also known for producing hundreds of world-class mathematicians, and for forging close ties with Taiwan’s tech sector. The city also has one of China’s largest concentrations of Christians, who have sporadically come under severe persecution since the Chinese communists came to power in 1949.

 
Zhejiang Province has the highest incidence of coronavirus outside central Hubei Province, where Wuhan is located, with more than 660 confirmed infections, at least 265 of them in Wenzhou.
As of now, the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases has risen above 17,000, while the death toll has surpassed 360 — significant numbers, to be sure, but still far from constituting an apocalyptic pandemic.
What has been apocalyptic has been the Chinese government’s response to the Wuhan virus. With its lockdown of a major city more than 800 kilometers (497 miles) from Wuhan, it has signaled its willingness to go to any lengths to maintain the appearance of control. Whether such appearances, and the fears that have triggered them, are warranted, remains to be seen.
 
https://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/asia/item/34794-citing-coronavirus-china-locks-down-wenzhou-and-its-9-million-people?fbclid=IwAR0NidPwAZJp2EM6SI0aggnNtMm6DqeJ0Kp661jvnlGHZmYaaOcYl8WLhT8

"Jews of China"?

Obligatory ronaldojews.gif

[atomheartbevo 89735]

Some stuff gleaned from various articles, that seem solidly sourced

• Wuhan has been locked down for 11 days, which means the 14-day period is nearly up. Most in Wuhan who had it, should have had symptoms already.  
• Recovered jumped 60%+ yesterday.  Should continue rising sharply now that folks are finally reaching their second negative test 14 days apart.  
• 95% of people infected show symptoms well before the 14 days, with the majority showing in 3-7 days.  Only 5% make it to 14 days.  
• WHO members have said that while asymptomatic people can spread the virus, they are not the main driver of transmissions
• Which leads to why it’s not spread as rapidly outside of China, now that people are more aware and taking precautions.   That’s possibly why it’s been mostly family members affected, or people in confined spaces with one or more infected (think Japanese bus driver and tour guide).   And maybe that German guy was banging his Chinese coworker.  Or at least swapping spit with her. 
• There is some ACE2 receptors or something in Asians that maybe making them more susceptible. Maybe Surly doctor can explain. 
• Supposedly the testing has been improving.  Still hard to say, since we don’t know how many they are testing.  

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652]

Called the Jews of China because they are good at business?  
JFC.     Nice reporting there. 

[Newdoc 3448]

30 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

There is some ACE2 receptors or something in Asians that maybe making them more susceptible. Maybe Surly doctor can explain. 

ACE Receptors have been implicated in the SARS virus susceptibility and severity. ACE receptors are part of our blood pressure system that hormonally regulates blood vessel constriction and in turn, blood pressure. These receptors are located all over the body but concentrate in the lungs and gastrointestinal system.  The problem is that coronavirus like these receptors and will propagate in them as well as cause localized inflammation reaction and thus respiratory distress syndrome/pneumonia. Some races of people may express these receptors and their subtypes more than others.  So the novel coronavirus might be kind of racist.

[Brisketexan 105160]

4 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

ACE Receptors have been implicated in the SARS virus susceptibility and severity. ACE receptors are part of our blood pressure system that hormonally regulates blood vessel constriction and in turn, blood pressure. These receptors are located all over the body but concentrate in the lungs and gastrointestinal system.  The problem is that coronavirus like these receptors and will propagate in them as well as cause localized inflammation reaction and thus respiratory distress syndrome/pneumonia. Some races of people may express these receptors and their subtypes more than others.  So the novel coronavirus might be kind of racist.

Is there a version that targets the Dutch?

Asking for a friend....

[atomheartbevo 89735]

25 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

ACE Receptors have been implicated in the SARS virus susceptibility and severity. ACE receptors are part of our blood pressure system that hormonally regulates blood vessel constriction and in turn, blood pressure. These receptors are located all over the body but concentrate in the lungs and gastrointestinal system.  The problem is that coronavirus like these receptors and will propagate in them as well as cause localized inflammation reaction and thus respiratory distress syndrome/pneumonia. Some races of people may express these receptors and their subtypes more than others.  So the novel coronavirus might be kind of racist.

Alex Jones:  So a bioweapon that favors Asians, leaked by an Asian bio-research lab?

[Skipper 6136]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

• Supposedly the testing has been improving.  Still hard to say, since we don’t know how many they are testing.  

This is the bullet point that makes any current data within China (and Wuhan in particular) so unreliable.  Forget issues trusting China' from a reporting perspective, but assuming those are accurate, what percentage of people that have symptoms are actually getting tested?  I'm assuming not only are there significant limits on the availability of testing kits and ability to process results, but how many people with symptoms are (or are being forced to due to logistics) simply riding this out?  I know these newly manufactured hospitals are popping up that should help, but you have to assume existing hospitals within Wuhan have been over capacity for a while now.  So how many are showing up and simply getting turned away (and as news of that spreads, how many with mild symptoms are just trying to ride it out at home). 

I'm not near in the weeds on this as many but Wuhan data (outside of maybe deaths) seems pretty worthless.  I'm much more interested in data from other areas of China (and in particular outside of China).

[Trey3216 15349]

27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Alex Jones:  So a bioweapon that favors Asians, leaked by an Asian bio-research lab?

Alex Jones after his 3rd gummy:    I mean, knocking out a quarter of their own population would allow the Chinese govt to call in US debt to be paid rather than having to keep buying US debt in exchange for our purchasing their goods.  We'd actually have to come up with money to pay for them rather than checks and IOU's.  

Edited February 3, 2020 by Trey3216

[NeverMarryAStripper 21907]

30 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Alex Jones:  So a bioweapon that favors Asians, leaked by an Asian bio-research lab?

Maybe it was developed by the US and they stole it and were working on a cure when it escaped.

[Pato del Muerto 52529]

44 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Alex Jones:  So a bioweapon that favors Asians, leaked by an Asian bio-research lab?

False frag operation

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

ACE Receptors have been implicated in the SARS virus susceptibility and severity. ACE receptors are part of our blood pressure system that hormonally regulates blood vessel constriction and in turn, blood pressure. These receptors are located all over the body but concentrate in the lungs and gastrointestinal system.  The problem is that coronavirus like these receptors and will propagate in them as well as cause localized inflammation reaction and thus respiratory distress syndrome/pneumonia. Some races of people may express these receptors and their subtypes more than others.  So the novel coronavirus might be kind of racist.

So if I take an ACE inhibitor for blood pressure, am I immune?

[Newdoc 3448]

5 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

So if I take an ACE inhibitor for blood pressure, am I immune?

I’m pretty sure the virus just infects the cell containing the receptor but does not affect or is affected by the receptor activity itself.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

Just now, Newdoc said:

I’m pretty sure the virus just infects the cell containing the receptor but does not affect or is affected by the receptor activity itself.

You could have said yes - I don't know where you live.

[Bevo 13579]

2 hours ago, PilotsError said:

Monday, 03 February 2020

Citing Coronavirus, China Locks Down Wenzhou and Its 9 Million People

 

 

 

Wenzhao is in Zhejiang Province. It has 724 cases. Guangdong has 725 cases, Henan has 566 cases and Hunan has 521 cases. Guangdong has Guangzhou that has 13 million. Henan has Zhengzhou which has 10 million people. And Hunan has Changsha which has 7 million people. Guangzhao would be the next city to shutdown.

 

[Brisketexan 105160]

12 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Wenzhao is in Zhejiang Province. It has 724 cases. Guangdong has 725 cases, Henan has 566 cases and Hunan has 521 cases. Guangdong has Guangzhou that has 13 million. Henan has Zhengzhou which has 10 million people. And Hunan has Changsha which has 7 million people. Guangzhao would be the next city to shutdown.

 

Pssshhh.  Like those are even real places.

[RMac5 1551]

Sounds like chicken wing sauce options.

[Trey3216 15349]

28 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Wenzhao is in Zhejiang Province. It has 724 cases. Guangdong has 725 cases, Henan has 566 cases and Hunan has 521 cases. Guangdong has Guangzhou that has 13 million. Henan has Zhengzhou which has 10 million people. And Hunan has Changsha which has 7 million people. Guangzhao would be the next city to shutdown.

 

 

15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Pssshhh.  Like those are even real places.

[InkaUtexas 26000]

Latest numbers from BNO 

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

As long as it doesn’t spread in other countries we should be good 

[Bevo 13579]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Pssshhh.  Like those are even real places.

I couldn't even remember the names as I was typing them.

[ABSR 5319]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

Wenzhao is in Zhejiang Province. It has 724 cases. Guangdong has 725 cases, Henan has 566 cases and Hunan has 521 cases. Guangdong has Guangzhou that has 13 million. Henan has Zhengzhou which has 10 million people. And Hunan has Changsha which has 7 million people. Guangzhao would be the next city to shutdown.

 

Do you have a menu with pictures?

[InkaUtexas 26000]

Just now, ABSR said:

Do you have a menu with pictures?

Just order the#5. 

[Bevo 13579]

2 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

So if I take an ACE inhibitor for blood pressure, am I immune?

Not ACE inhibitors (angiotensin II) but the angiotensin receptor blockers may have a positive effect.

Treating the host response to emerging virus diseases: lessons learned from sepsis, pneumonia, influenza and Ebola

David S. Fedson

Formerly, Department of Medicine, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

Correspondence to: David S. Fedson, MD. 57, chemin du Lavoir, 01630 Sergy Haut, France. Email: dfedson@wanadoo.fr.

---

Abstract: There is an ongoing threat of epidemic or pandemic diseases that could be caused by influenza, Ebola or other emerging viruses. It will be difficult and costly to develop new drugs that target each of these viruses. Statins and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have been effective in treating patients with sepsis, pneumonia and influenza, and a statin/ARB combination appeared to dramatically reduce mortality during the recent Ebola outbreak. These drugs target (among other things) the endothelial dysfunction found in all of these diseases. Most scientists work on new drugs that target viruses, and few accept the idea of treating the host response with generic drugs. A great deal of research will be needed to show conclusively that these drugs work, and this will require the support of public agencies and foundations. Investigators in developing countries should take an active role in this research. If the next Public Health Emergency of International Concern is caused by an emerging virus, a “top down” approach to developing specific new drug treatments is unlikely to be effective. However, a “bottom up” approach to treatment that targets the host response to these viruses by using widely available and inexpensive generic drugs could reduce mortality in any country with a basic health care system. In doing so, it would make an immeasurable contribution to global equity and global security.

[atomheartbevo 89735]

2 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

So if I take an ACE inhibitor for blood pressure, am I immune?

Only if you are also fucking a 4 foot tall 19 year old dwarf.

[Brisketexan 105160]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Only if you are also fucking a 4 foot tall 19 year old dwarf.

Yeah...around these parts, you're gonna have to be WAY more specific.