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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

There’s also a sleepy little town down around San Antone.  The people of the town are strange, and they’re proud of where they came. 

You can cut down the grove, but harder to shut off a spring.  Beware what bubbles up 12 miles northwest of Waco:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/China+Spring,+TX+76633/@31.6471432,-97.3229585,14z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!1m7!3m6!1s0x865cf1a939247e43:0xa27df1ce85ed1524!2sChina+Grove,+TX!3b1!8m2!3d29.3888459!4d-98.3489023!3m4!1s0x864f90fe0e6cd1c1:0xfe2c12f5c32aa66c!8m2!3d31.6522124!4d-97.3079681

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Uncle Boobs
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Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
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atomheartbevo

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So 566 dead.  

550 from Hubei/Wuhan.   97% of the dead from the originating province.  Interesting stat.   

And their spiffy new labs are coming online later today or tomorrow, so the confirmed should really jump as the backlog is slowly cleared, and the tinfoil crowd will flip out.  

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NeverMarryAStripper

NeverMarryAStripper 21909

Posted
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53 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

 

If this were a movie, they would tell that ship to sail somewhere, then sink it.

 

 

 

Damn, the entire city is dead. Millions of screaming Chinamen, dead.

 

We. are. all. going. to. die.

 

(Amazing the smog is still so bad, even with millions of cars off the streets).

Watching that video I kept expecting to see a horde of zombies come running down the street

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

Posted
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5 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Latest from Dr. Neil Ferguson at the Imperial College of London. (Bonus: hot Dutch nerd doctor / interviewer with huge rack.)

Tl;dw

Official numbers are way low, and this will be at least as bad as H1N1 and/or SARS.

 

Need more pics of interviewer to fully evaluate.

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clapclapclap

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1 hour ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Latest from Dr. Neil Ferguson at the Imperial College of London. (Bonus: hot Dutch nerd doctor / interviewer with huge rack.)

Tl;dw

Official numbers are way low, and this will be at least as bad as H1N1 and/or SARS.

 

He estimates that of the most severe infections, maybe 10% or less of those have been detected in China, maybe 25% in other countries.  Porous borders mean countries won't be able to detect every case.  Estimates 50,000 new infections per day in China.  Says it is hard to predict future numbers, but their best guess is that the epidemic is doubling in size every 5 days.  Perhaps peaking in Wuhan in about a month, maybe a month or two later for China as a whole.  Guesses later for other countries, but so many uncertainties. 

Says it will probably be very difficult to control this epidemic the way they did SARS.  Coronavirus appears to have a much wider range of severity compared to SARS.  Since they think it can be up to 20 or more days from when a person develops symptoms until they die (and after incubation periods of up to 2 weeks), they don't consider it reassuring that not many have died from it yet.  They're still trying to account for such delays to get an idea of how lethal the virus is.

 

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

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9 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

He estimates that of the most severe infections, maybe 10% or less of those have been detected in China, maybe 25% in other countries.  Porous borders mean countries won't be able to detect every case.  Estimates 50,000 new infections per day in China.  Says it is hard to predict future numbers, but their best guess is that the epidemic is doubling in size every 5 days.  Perhaps peaking in Wuhan in about a month, maybe a month or two later for China as a whole.  Guesses later for other countries, but so many uncertainties. 

Says it will probably be very difficult to control this epidemic the way they did SARS.  Coronavirus appears to have a much wider range of severity compared to SARS.  Since they think it can be up to 20 or more days from when a person develops symptoms until they die (and after incubation periods of up to 2 weeks), they don't consider it reassuring that not many have died from it yet.  They're still trying to account for such delays to get an idea of how lethal the virus is.

 

He said the reason that only 10-25% are being detected is that a lot of people just don't get very sick.  So I chose to take that as my silver lining.

It may end up being like Zika in that many people never even know they got it, a few people get sick, a few of those get really sick, and a few of those get meningitis and die. 

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atomheartbevo

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Posted
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20 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

He said the reason that only 10-25% are being detected is that a lot of people just don't get very sick.  So I chose to take that as my silver lining.

On February 1st, in a briefing, the Wuhan authorities said they were only able to do around 400 tests a day in Wuhan (sounded like everything else was being sent elsewhere).    With the new labs opening in Wuhan, they are going to be going full tilt and we could easily see 5,000+ new cases a day just out of Wuhan.  Well, maybe not all “new”, but a mixture of new and backlogged cases.  

Anyways, they mentioned that the original hospitals were only for severe/critical cases, and they were turning away mild cases, and not even testing them.   With the new temporary hospitals coming online, they are going to use those to treat milder cases, and keep them quarantined, and they will be able to test them as well.   

So the next week or so is going to suck/look really scary, but in theory, all of the lockdowns and quarantines and travel bans will be making their presence felt on the transmission rates, hopefully lowering them.   

But I’m still thinking the death rate out of Wuhan vs everywhere else is way off.  

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atomheartbevo

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Welp, this is horrifying

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html#link-3cb0be85

Quote

A senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine or designated hospitals.

Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.

“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.

 

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Skipper

Skipper 6140

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7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Welp, this is horrifying

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html#link-3cb0be85

 

Wow.  So it would suck to have a cold with a mild fever right now.   Because that probably means you and your entire family are headed to some mass quarantine facility where it's virtually certain you get coronavirus.

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RPM

RPM 26326

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Yet another cruise ship is stranded.

As the coronavirus epidemic rages, Holland America's MS Westerdam cruise ship, which made a stop in Hong Kong last week, is once again looking for a port after being turned away by the Philippines and now Japan over concerns about the illness.

Holland America said there are no known cases of coronavirus onboard despite reports to the contrary, and the MS Westerdam is not in quarantine. 

"Holland America Line has been notified that the Japanese Government will not permit Westerdam to call in Japanese ports," the cruise line stated in a press release provided by Public Relations Director Erik Elvejord. "The ship had been scheduled to call to Ishigaki Island, Naha, Okinawa, Nagasaki and Fukuoka (Hakata), before its scheduled turn in Yokohama on Feb. 15, where the next cruise was scheduled to embark."

The cruise line is working quickly to develop alternate plans for the remainder of the 14-day East Asia cruise, which had already moved disembarkation point from Shanghai, China, to Yokohama. 

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atomheartbevo

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17 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

So there’s a dude out front yelling “Don’t enter unless you can take care of yourself!” while winter ninjas pace menacingly back and forth.  Is that a quarantine station or the Kumite?

Yep, apparently quarantine stations are being setup, for those who aren’t serious/critical.  

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Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders 1357

Posted
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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is like a shitty disaster movie in the making.

As mentioned upthread, we know how to handle this.

spacer.png

I think that 61 infected is out of 273 on board that were deemed to be in close contact or showing symptoms.   Shit is infectious.  Need to test the whole boat now.

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