Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[BrickHorn 18262]

Just read an Atlantic article in which a Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40-70% of the global population will be infected within the next year.  At a 2% mortality rate, that amounts to approximately 60-110 million deaths.

Those are Black Death-level numbers.

 

[GreenspointTexas 9662]

7 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

 

If this thing starts killing millions of people, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the FDA will almost rubber stamp anything that shows potential. And other countries will just go straight to human trials

 

It will take, at minimum, 18 months just to ramp up production and distribution enough to matter

[Trey3216 15352]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Just read an Atlantic article in which a Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40-70% of the global population will be infected within the next year.  At a 2% mortality rate, that amounts to approximately 60-110 million deaths.

Those are Black Death-level numbers.

 

In nominal terms, yes.  

[BrickHorn 18262]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

In nominal terms, yes.  

And by “nominal,” you of course mean “the number of human beings currently alive who will be killed by this virus within the next 12 months.”

[Trey3216 15352]

1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

And by “nominal,” you of course mean “the number of human beings currently alive who will be killed by this virus within the next 12 months.”

By nominal I mean, "the actual number dead", yes.  Percentage-wise, of course, the Black Death was much more merciless.  

[Eastwood 4394]

Black Death knocked out 25% of the world population. That would be 1.75 billion today.

[Helobious 9464]

3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Just read an Atlantic article in which a Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40-70% of the global population will be infected within the next year.  At a 2% mortality rate, that amounts to approximately 60-110 million deaths.

Those are Black Death-level numbers.

 

That’s pointless extrapolation given how little we know about it. Also we don’t know how it infects an entire populace living in a place with first-world healthcare and air quality.

[atomheartbevo 89775]

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

That’s pointless extrapolation given how little we know about it. Also we don’t know how it infects an entire populace living in a place with first-world healthcare and air quality.

Our healthcare system is not setup to handle a shitload of people who need to be quarantined with a good 2-3 weeks of hospitalization.    We don’t have massive apartment complexes that can have their entrances welded shut, nor do we have the resources to do massive geographical quarantines.  

[BrickHorn 18262]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

By nominal I mean, "the actual number dead", yes.  Percentage-wise, of course, the Black Death was much more merciless.  

I know what you meant.  Just being a smart-ass.  

This is obviously not the second Black Death.  But in absolute terms it may end up being the most fatal pandemic since the Spanish Flu.  The world hasn’t seen anything like this in a century.  

[InkaUtexas 26038]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Our healthcare system is not setup to handle a shitload of people who need to be quarantined with a good 2-3 weeks of hospitalization.    We don’t have massive apartment complexes that can have their entrances welded shut, nor do we have the resources to do massive geographical quarantines.  

unused nuke silos. or cruise ships.... 

[Trey3216 15352]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

unused nuke silos. or cruise ships.... 

Got tons of old warships sitting in various places around the country...

[BrickHorn 18262]

10 minutes ago, Helobious said:

That’s pointless extrapolation given how little we know about it. Also we don’t know how it infects an entire populace living in a place with first-world healthcare and air quality.

All true.  We also don’t know what the mortality rate will be when the number of serious cases exceeds hospital capacity.  So while it’s possible this may not be as bad as current data suggests, it’s also possible it may be worse.  But it’s interesting to put this thing into context assuming current data are accurate and applicable globally.

Edited February 25, 2020 by BrickHorn

[InkaUtexas 26038]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Got tons of old warships sitting in various places around the country...

we do, but cruise ships have capacity to feed people in their rooms vs. navy mess halls. 

[Loco 3753]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

unused nuke silos. or cruise ships.... 

Forever21s...

[InkaUtexas 26038]

 

 

[achooloco 1072]

Can someone please shut down this sock and keep this thread to actual news, questions, and updates?

[zzz 199]

this thread got me all like

 

[InkaUtexas 26038]

Schools closed. Numbers going up fast. So Qatar is only Gulf state with no cases? 

 

[atomheartbevo 89775]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Schools closed. Numbers going up fast. So Qatar is only Gulf state with no cases?  not testing?

Fixed.  

[atomheartbevo 89775]

1 hour ago, Loco said:

Definitely some shit going on there...  We caught it early!

 

Probably 10?  Of all the times to blatantly lie about something, why does he have to lie about this?   For fuck’s sake. We have 36 cases alone from the cruise ship.   

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

[Brisketexan 105206]

I read on Twitter that John Hopkins University stopped letting the President use their map of cases. This is very troublesome!
 
https://twitter.com/HomelandKen/status/1232027306732015618?s=19
 

^^*
Who the fuck is this moron?

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

Just read an Atlantic article in which a Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40-70% of the global population will be infected within the next year.  At a 2% mortality rate, that amounts to approximately 60-110 million deaths.

Those are Black Death-level numbers.

 

But but but, I read the Flu is the real worry

[InkaUtexas 26038]

anyone else listening to the CDC live stream? hard to hear, but they are telling communities to start planning and preparing. 

[NoName 16369]

32 minutes ago, Wayne_hogdong.com said:

I read on Twitter that John Hopkins University stopped letting the President use their map of cases. This is very troublesome!

 

https://twitter.com/HomelandKen/status/1232027306732015618?s=19

 

 

little help here @immamac ?

Edited February 25, 2020 by NoName

[akhornfan 4]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

anyone else listening to the CDC live stream? hard to hear, but they are telling communities to start planning and preparing. 

Seems like a dumb plan to tell individuals to start calling the school. She said it’s what she did this morning. Ridiculous 

[Poe It Up 126]

I have a couple toddlers at home, so it’s not really a matter of if but when I get this virus. I’m just ready to get it over with at this point. 

[InkaUtexas 26038]

4 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Seems like a dumb plan to tell individuals to start calling the school. She said it’s what she did this morning. Ridiculous 

or schools could get active when they start getting shit ton of calls. good thing is spring break is a few weeks away. 

[akhornfan 4]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

or schools could get active when they start getting shit ton of calls. good thing is spring break is a few weeks away. 

I just mean the information flow is ridiculous - not the idea the schools should have a plan

 

[Trey3216 15352]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

or schools could get active when they start getting shit ton of calls. good thing is spring break is a few weeks away. 

Is that a good thing?  Lots of people taking trips to places where tens of thousands of other people will be, crammed into restaurants, bars, clubs, etc.?  Could be how it makes it's way into a lot of communities.  

[InkaUtexas 26038]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Is that a good thing?  Lots of people taking trips to places where tens of thousands of other people will be, crammed into restaurants, bars, clubs, etc.?  Could be how it makes it's way into a lot of communities.  

For schools yes. 

[BBQ2Bayou 807]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Is that a good thing?  Lots of people taking trips to places where tens of thousands of other people will be, crammed into restaurants, bars, clubs, etc.?  Could be how it makes it's way into a lot of communities.  

I knew my lifelong practice of reclusiveness and aversion to other humans would prepare me for something, someday. 

[Trey3216 15352]

5 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

For schools yes. 

Well, they start back the week after with a bunch of folks that won't know if they're infected or not for another 2 weeks.  

[CHAD BRISCOE 372]

It's it just Asiens getting this Sickness or is it every body . I have a roll of duck tape and some plastic drop cloths to put around my windows in case a emergency

[Pato del Muerto 52556]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

All true.  We also don’t know what the mortality rate will be when the number of serious cases exceeds hospital capacity.  So while it’s possible this may not be as bad as current data suggests, it’s also possible it may be worse.  But it’s interesting to put this thing into context assuming current data are accurate and applicable globally.

What we do have now that we didn’t during the Spanish flu and plague is advanced science that could develop a usable vaccine in a few months that would curtail the spread. 
But the increased ease of global travel now probably accelerates the global spread.  It’s like a race. 

[CHAD BRISCOE 372]

Really it would probaly be better if it was Kid's dying from it because they don't really have lifes they have to live yet just school

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4976]

33 minutes ago, Wayne_hogdong.com said:

Well maybe they should have started prepping and planning before. Then less people would be sick!

[CHAD BRISCOE 372]

Back in the Day's of Yoar the kid's would have been picking wheats or whatever and that's less dangerous than school because you can't get sick picking wheats only run over by a combine

[alincoln 2381]

The apocalypse is here . . . we just haven't widely acknowledged it yet.  The world in March 2021 will bear little resemblance to our current society.  

[CHAD BRISCOE 372]

Me and Carl and Carl Dad we borrowed a backho from ABR and we dug up a Bunker today we have about 100 bags of QuickCrete getting delivered to make walls . But we do'nt know how to make a roof yet

[Newdoc 3448]

19 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Is that a good thing?  Lots of people taking trips to places where tens of thousands of other people will be, crammed into restaurants, bars, clubs, etc.?  Could be how it makes it's way into a lot of communities.  

Yeah, usually spring break is good at breaking the flu cycle. This year, Spring Break may accelerate Covid spread due to the international travel.

[MissingInAction 25165]

Just ordered my PPE setup for the corona outbreak before all the facebook moms buy them up  

[Newdoc 3448]

5 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Just ordered my PPE setup for the corona outbreak before all the facebook moms buy them up  

If that’s the case then you might want to stock up on essential oils too.

[CHAD BRISCOE 372]

6 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

If that’s the case then you might want to stock up on essential oils too.

Hello I am an Oil's Sellsmen please visit http://www.legitimatebusinessenterpise.biz/

Edited February 25, 2020 by CHAD BRISCOE

[MissingInAction 25165]

11 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

If that’s the case then you might want to stock up on essential oils too.

If by "essential oils" you mean "lube", then yes. 

[CHAD BRISCOE 372]

Many of my oil's are Food Grade and can be used in this manner provided you are Biblical marry

[Somnio 751]

47 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Is that a good thing?  Lots of people taking trips to places where tens of thousands of other people will be, crammed into restaurants, bars, clubs, etc.?  Could be how it makes it's way into a lot of communities.  

If there aren't already cases in Austin by then, SXSW is when it will occur.

[Helobious 9464]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

All true.  We also don’t know what the mortality rate will be when the number of serious cases exceeds hospital capacity.  So while it’s possible this may not be as bad as current data suggests, it’s also possible it may be worse.  But it’s interesting to put this thing into context assuming current data are accurate and applicable globally.

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

[Incredulity 11682]

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

^this, this, this.

 

I was in Vegas last weekend with a bunch of brits screaming and spitting on everything.  I am either dead and don't already know it, or will recover.

[InkaUtexas 26038]

3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

At least baseball season started! If I am going to be quarantined prefer to have that on! 

[Somnio 751]

3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

The issue seems to be roughly 20% of cases being serious enough to require hospitalization.

If there are 100 million infected, and 20 million need to be in the hospital there will be issues.