Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[workswithseed 2,109]

2 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

Just read an Atlantic article in which a Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40-70% of the global population will be infected within the next year.  At a 2% mortality rate, that amounts to approximately 60-110 million deaths.

Those are Black Death-level numbers.

 

When the we should have another plauge joke seems a little too real.

[Schulz2.0 29,000]

8 minutes ago, Helobious said:

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232361367732183041

I'd say the general concern is it interferes with supply chains or overwhelms the local health systems. 

Edited February 25, 2020 by Schulz2.0

[Incredulity 11,681]

20% of the cases they have diagnosed.

[MissingInAction 25,144]

8 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

^this, this, this.

 

I was in Vegas last weekend with a bunch of brits screaming and spitting on everything.  I am either dead and don't already know it, or will recover.

I got a rash on my forearms last time i was in Vegas. It is a filthy place.

[BrickHorn 18,261]

14 minutes ago, Helobious said:

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

Okay, that’s fine squishy analysis.  But you’re ignoring the mathematics of it.  The current data points to a 2% mortality rate.  An expert in epidemiology, having studied other relevant statistics about the disease, is predicting 40-70% infection rates.  If those numbers are correct or approximately correct, then the fatalities will be along the lines of what I posted.  That’s just math.

Now, the experts might be wrong and the data might be skewed. But I’m not going to take some random message board dude’s word that “It’s just another cold.”  Because you have cited absolutely zero data to support that view.

[Ellellelle 314]

This thread has become troll central.

[Somnio 751]

4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

20% of the cases they have diagnosed.

Yep, and hopefully it really is all just a big overreaction.

But everyday this seems to be getting worse.  Everyday it seems to becoming clearer that this is not like anything we've seen for the last 100 years.

I pray it really is just being overhyped, but it is not difficult to fathom this being a global catastrophe in the making.  Not apocalyptic, but something people will be reading about in history books.

[drt 640]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

What we do have now that we didn’t during the Spanish flu and plague is advanced science that could develop a usable vaccine in a few months that would curtail the spread. 
But the increased ease of global travel now probably accelerates the global spread.  It’s like a race. 

Again, vaccine development best case scenario is a year.  That's with the stars aligning and heavens opening, and no hiccups along the way.  

[Message Board User 12,395]

IOC saying Tokyo Olympics will be cancelled (as opposed to moved or delayed) if situation becomes too dangerous.

[Neonmoon 38,130]

2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

IOC saying Tokyo Olympics will be cancelled (as opposed to moved or delayed) if situation becomes too dangerous.

A little earlier than I thought, but this will be followed up by "yep, it's cancelled" in a month or so

[Helobious 9,464]

12 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Okay, that’s fine squishy analysis.  But you’re ignoring the mathematics of it.  The current data points to a 2% mortality rate.  An expert in epidemiology, having studied other relevant statistics about the disease, is predicting 40-70% infection rates.  If those numbers are correct or approximately correct, then the fatalities will be along the lines of what I posted.  That’s just math.

Now, the experts might be wrong and the data might be skewed. But I’m not going to take some random message board dude’s word that “It’s just another cold.”  Because you have cited absolutely zero data to support that view.

It’s pretty naive to think that mortality rate will hold steady. Unless this acts like no other virus in the history of mankind, it’ll eventually evolve down to a less lethal strain (like the spanish flu did). 

[Harrison Stafford 3,335]

Shit is getting real.

[Pato del Muerto 52,551]

4 minutes ago, drt said:

Again, vaccine development best case scenario is a year.  That's with the stars aligning and heavens opening, and no hiccups along the way.  

Why?  Is your timeline assuming that any regulatory red tape is removed for expediency?

[Pato del Muerto 52,551]

Even if it was the same as the flu but much more contagious, that alone would be sufficient to disrupt things. It appears to be that plus more severe on some order. 
 

wouldn’t we know by now from a little lab testing how well it survives in different climates?  Is summer what’s keeping it at bay in the Southern Hemisphere?  In 3 months will it flip as Europe and Asia warm up, but Africa and South America and Australia cool down?

[StruggleBus 3,922]

15 minutes ago, Ellellelle said:

This thread has become troll central.

Chad is no troll

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

If that’s the case then you might want to stock up on essential oils too.

I’ve got some wraps he can buy too if he needs something to do in quarantine

[Somnio 751]

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

It’s pretty naive to think that mortality rate will hold steady. Unless this acts like no other virus in the history of mankind, it’ll eventually evolve down to a less lethal strain (like the spanish flu did). 

Let's just hope this doesn't infect 1/3 of the world's population, and kill 50 million like the Spanish Flu did before it becomes less lethal.

[TonyTexas 10,520]

10 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

IOC saying Tokyo Olympics will be cancelled (as opposed to moved or delayed) if situation becomes too dangerous.

You can’t just move the Olympics. Host countries spend years in preparation. 

[GRHorn 105]

 

 

[CHAD BRISCOE 372]

That sucks because if they have a nother Olympics in four years they will spend alot of time on Memorials and shit and fewer time on weird sport's they have in other Places. The Opening Ceremony gonna be long as my dong

[BrickHorn 18,261]

10 minutes ago, Helobious said:

It’s pretty naive to think that mortality rate will hold steady. Unless this acts like no other virus in the history of mankind, it’ll eventually evolve down to a less lethal strain (like the spanish flu did). 

It’s not inevitable that every disease must evolve reduced mortality.  This virus apparently has a long incubation period during which the infected is contagious.  And 2% is already a pretty low mortality rate.  98% of infected don’t die and are thus infectious for the maximum duration.  It’s spreading rapidly at the current rate; this isn’t SARS or MERS, which petered out precisely because they killed too effectively.  
 

So what, in your expert opinion, is the environmental pressure on a disease with those characteristics to become less lethal?

Edited February 25, 2020 by BrickHorn

[XYZ 2,154]

Somebody’s name is Dick Pound?

[drt 640]

12 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Why?  Is your timeline assuming that any regulatory red tape is removed for expediency?

Yes.  Vaccine production at scale actually takes quite a bit of time, in addition to the science and shit that goes into formulating it on the front end.  Regardless of what happens elsewhere in the world, the FDA isn't going to let people get injected with whatever the fuck they "think" works.  It has to be proven effective and safe before they'll sign off on it, even with fast track approval.  That process also takes time.

For example think of the normal flu vaccines.  In years where the virus mutates significantly enough to not be effective at scale; even with small mutations and therefor small variation in vaccine formula, the new version is almost never produced in time to make a dent in that year's flu.  That is not from lack of trying, or tons of red tape.

[elfenix 34,331]

3 hours ago, Loco said:

Spoiler: The P-51 = warm weather

i dunno, looks like plenty of people in thailand and southern india have it. 

[Helobious 9,464]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

It’s not inevitable that every disease must evolve reduced mortality.  This virus apparently has a long incubation period during which the infected is contagious.  And 2% is already a pretty low mortality rate.  98% of infected don’t die and are thus infectious for the maximum duration.  It’s spreading rapidly at the current rate; this isn’t SARS or MERS, which petered out precisely because they killed too effectively.  
 

So what, in your expert opinion, is the environmental pressure on a disease with those characteristics to become less lethal?

We don’t even know what the true mortality rate is, how infectious it is, etc. This disease has only been at the forefront for about 2 months. But your Harvard professor wouldn’t get much attention for saying, “we’re still in the early stages of this disease, we don’t fully understand how severe a crisis it can truly become”. It’s much easier to say “this will infect everyone and end the world” because that’s much more attention grabbing.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,139]

It’s not inevitable that every disease must evolve reduced mortality.  This virus apparently has a long incubation period during which the infected is contagious.  And 2% is already a pretty low mortality rate.  98% of infected don’t die and are thus infectious for the maximum duration.  It’s spreading rapidly at the current rate; this isn’t SARS or MERS, which petered out precisely because they killed too effectively.  
 
So what, in your expert opinion, is the environmental pressure on a disease with those characteristics to become less lethal?

Of course it is possible the mortality rate is lower. I'd imagine infection numbers in China are low (i.e. official numbers smaller than reality).

[Bevo 13,592]

22 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

 

It seems to me that they should just delay it a year.

[Trey3216 15,350]

9 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Of course it is possible the mortality rate is lower. I'd imagine infection numbers in China are low (i.e. official numbers smaller than reality).
 

I’d bet deaths are a lot higher as well.   Lots of people stuck in their houses for a month with little contact with the outside world could lead to some ugly covering of true mortality numbers.  

[InkaUtexas 26,028]

17 minutes ago, elfenix said:

i dunno, looks like plenty of people in thailand and southern india have it. 

Have not seen India numbers. 

[BrickHorn 18,261]

13 minutes ago, Helobious said:

We don’t even know what the true mortality rate is, how infectious it is, etc. This disease has only been at the forefront for about 2 months. But your Harvard professor wouldn’t get much attention for saying, “we’re still in the early stages of this disease, we don’t fully understand how severe a crisis it can truly become”. It’s much easier to say “this will infect everyone and end the world” because that’s much more attention grabbing.

So your whole view is based on cursory dismissal of the only data currently available because you think it might be incorrect?  And your view that professional epidemiologists are prone to speculative hyperbole?

 

[bolverk 29,705]

38 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Shit is getting real.

 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-cases-top-80-000-020046679.html

 

Quote

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Americans to prepare for a coronavirus outbreak at home that could lead to significant disruptions of daily life, though the warnings were downplayed by the White House. Congress was told that there’s shortage of masks needed for health workers if one occurs.

New cases were reported in Europe, prompting worries of a widening outbreak there. Iran reported a total of 15 deaths, the most fatalities outside China, and a top health official tested positive. Chinese President Xi Jinping said his country was confident of limiting the impact, though new cases continue to be identified elsewhere in Asia.

Moderna Inc. shipped a first vaccine for testing in humans. The U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is also starting a trial of Gilead Sciences Inc. drug.

Key Developments

China death toll 2,663, up 71; total mainland cases at 77,658Italy cases rise to 283 from 229; Austria reports two infectionsUnited Air abandons profit goal, Mastercard cuts forecastU.S. stocks head for a fourth straight decline; bond yields fall

Click VRUS on the terminal for news and data on the coronavirus and here for maps and charts. For analysis of the impact from Bloomberg Economics, click here.

Kudlow Urges Calm After CDC Virus Warning (1:40 p.m. NY)

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow called for calm after U.S. health officials said that an outbreak inside the U.S. could cause significant disruptions to daily life if emergency plans were put into place.

“I think people should be as calm as possible in assessing this,” Kudlow said at the White House. “Emergency plans don’t necessarily mean they’ll have to be put into place.”

There have been fewer than 20 coronavirus cases diagnosed in the U.S., though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said it expects the pathogen to eventually spread locally.

“We have contained this, I won’t say airtight, but pretty close to airtight,” Kudlow said. He called it a human tragedy because of the toll in China, but said it was not an economic one.

Cases Grow in Italy and Across Europe (1:02 p.m. NY)

Italy saw its 10th casualty from the coronavirus outbreak, with 322 confirmed cases nationwide, as the infection began to appear across Europe and threatened to further disrupt tourism and business. Health ministers in Germany, France, Italy and other neighboring countries vowed to keep Europe’s borders open and to improve information-sharing about travelers to and from areas with infections.

Spain’s authorities held about 1,000 guests and workers at a seaside hotel on Tenerife, in the Canary Islands, after an Italian tourist there initially tested positive for the virus. Croatia and Switzerland reported their first cases, and Austria confirmed two more. All the patients had links to Italy.

CDC Warns Americans to Prepare for Outbreak (12:53 p.m. NY)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Americans should prepare for school closings, cancellations of sporting events, concerts and business meetings if the coronavirus spreads in the U.S.

“We expect we will see community spread in this country,” Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said on a call with reporters Tuesday. “It is not a matter of if, but a question of when, this will exactly happen.”

The outbreak is “rapidly evolving and expanding,” she said. “Now is the time” for businesses, schools and hospitals to begin preparing. She said that Americans should prepare for the coronavirus epidemic on our shores and to assume it will be bad.

U.S. Is Short on Masks in Case of American Outbreak (11:30 a.m. NY)

The U.S. has far fewer protective masks than it would need in the case of a major outbreak of the coronavirus in the country, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told Congress Tuesday.

The U.S. has about 30 million stockpiled N95 masks that can help stop a person from inhaling infective particles, Azar said, but would need as much as 300 million for health workers in an outbreak. U.S. health officials have said they’re preparing for the coronavirus to eventually begin spreading locally.

Gilead Drug Being Tested on Evacuees in Nebraska (11:20 a.m. NY)

Gilead’s antiviral drug remdesivir will be tested on coronavirus patients at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, which is housing people who were evacuated from a virus-infested cruise ship in Japan, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said

 

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

29 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Somebody’s name is Dick Pound?

Yeah, he's about as much fun as that sounds, too.  He's the WADA guy who takes such a "guilty until proven innocent" and "false positives are better than false negatives" line with PEDs.

 

CSB - I actually worked with a guy named Dick Payne.

Edited February 25, 2020 by Liquor and Poker

[Chet Steadman 940]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

At least baseball season started! If I am going to be quarantined prefer to have that on! 

Death caused by the boredom of watching baseball seems worse than anything the Coronavirus could offer up.  

[Ellellelle 314]

Have not seen India numbers. 

India claims to not have any active cases. Seems impossible but who knows.

[Deej 76,875]

3 minutes ago, Ellellelle said:

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Have not seen India numbers. 

India claims to not have any active cases. Seems impossible but who knows.

A quick dip in the Ganges will kill the virus.

[SimonBolivar 10,958]

8 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Death caused by the boredom of watching baseball seems worse than anything the Coronavirus could offer up.  

You don't deserve the name Chet Steadman.

[Newdoc 3,448]

The CDC has de facto decided to whip the public into a frenzy because we and our media are really too stupid to process the warnings logically. They should have really rolled this out slowly starting 2 weeks ago. 98% of the public has no idea what “severe disruption” means and we certainly don’t know what generic “prepare” means either.

[Pato del Muerto 52,551]

44 minutes ago, drt said:

Yes.  Vaccine production at scale actually takes quite a bit of time, in addition to the science and shit that goes into formulating it on the front end.  Regardless of what happens elsewhere in the world, the FDA isn't going to let people get injected with whatever the fuck they "think" works.  It has to be proven effective and safe before they'll sign off on it, even with fast track approval.  That process also takes time.

For example think of the normal flu vaccines.  In years where the virus mutates significantly enough to not be effective at scale; even with small mutations and therefor small variation in vaccine formula, the new version is almost never produced in time to make a dent in that year's flu.  That is not from lack of trying, or tons of red tape.

I’m not talking about fda. I’m thinking globally. There should be tons of biotech companies working on something and there’s plenty of governments out there willing to jump right to human injection. 

[JesusSweatDuck 17,787]

13 minutes ago, Deej said:

A quick dip in the Ganges will kill the virus everything.

fify

[drt 640]

12 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m not talking about fda. I’m thinking globally. There should be tons of biotech companies working on something and there’s plenty of governments out there willing to jump right to human injection. 

They are.  Problem is that human subjects vary much more than lab animals or protocols, so your results are all over the fucking place with the same treatments.  Can introduce a lot of noise that actually slows down development.  This is why people mentioned up thread the strategy of going after it with antivirals that are already approved in the near term while simultaneously trying to develop an effective vaccine.

By the way, if you're pinning your hopes on somebody stumbling on a vaccine in some other country that doesn't have a rigorous testing and development process...you're probably going to be disappointed.

[Bevo 13,592]

12 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m not talking about fda. I’m thinking globally. There should be tons of biotech companies working on something and there’s plenty of governments out there willing to jump right to human injection. 

Well, biotech companies just want to please investors and have plenty of dumb business people and scientists. And, many governments are dumb. So of course a government may jump on it. But, keep in mind that the vaccine may kill people, confer no immunity, confer limited immunity to cause the virus to mutate, or may make people more susceptible to the virus. So this means that there are 4 bad outcomes and 1 good outcome. Meanwhile, there are probably going to be at least 5 companies claiming to have a product.

 

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1,084]

this is frightening:

 

[Deej 76,875]

After that CDC announcement, have the shelves at HEB been stripped bare, yet?

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1,084]

4 minutes ago, Deej said:

After that CDC announcement, have the shelves at HEB been stripped bare, yet?

Thanks to my daughters, I have an insane Girl Scout cookie stash, so I'm good.

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

Just now, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

Thanks to my daughters, I have an insane Girl Scout cookie stash, so I'm good.

Let's talk.  I have n95 masks.

[Somnio 751]

It's concerning to me that the CDC is saying get ready, because this is probably going to get bad while our president is majorly downplaying the situation, and letting everyone know it's no biggie and is under control.

WTF?

[Anastasis 23,481]

HHS spin cycle engaged. 

[Incredulity 11,681]

WTF does, "get ready" mean anyway.

Chicken Noodle soup and electric blankets?

Steel window bars and double ought buckshot?

 

[InkaUtexas 26,028]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

WTF does, "get ready" mean anyway.

Chicken Noodle soup and electric blankets?

Steel window bars and double ought buckshot?

 

all the above plus see the discussion above about trades...