Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[michaelpshayes 417]

 

[MissingInAction 25087]

Fuck just thought of all the Cali douche ex pats here in Austin. Those fuckers will either go home to visit, or their fuck face friends/family will come here. 

We are so resoundingly fucked.

[atomheartbevo 89675]

4 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I still cant believe how poorly this has been handled by china/the US/other countries

I can.  

And Iran is jockeying for top spot in fuckups.

 

[Lerka Lerka 1087]

So, bodies in trees this weekend or next?

[drt 638]

What are the odds our president, vp, and cabinet get tested today?  Never know the answer but I'm guessing they do.

[Goredho 17406]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I know it sounds harsh but at some level perhaps its better for the world to let this burn through the population. Any of us could be part of the unlucky. And I mean this sentiment in context that if this hangs around long enough, any precautions may not ultimately matter.  The current precautions seem more about buying time to find treatment or vaccine options.

There are some parallels between this and wildfires.  For a long time we fought them aggressively and tried to stop them before they got started.  And then our forestry scientists came to learn there have always been wildfires, and that they are actually a part of the forest ecosystem and regenerative process.  The old, dead forest needs to be burned down regularly so new, healthy forest can grow.  And that by stamping them out all the time, we were disrupting the natural order.  In effect "creating" vast forests of old, dead wood that could not be protected from wildfires no matter what our efforts.  And then, we had the Yellowstone wildfires in 1988 where 792,880 acres burned.  It couldn't really be controlled.  It had to burn until moisture and snow put an end to it.  And in the wake, it looked like hell on earth.

Go there now, and you see young, healthy trees where there was blackened tree stubs and scorched earth in 1988.  A rebirth is in progress.  The forestry scientists were proven right.

Transfer that to our current predicament.  As we keep invading the habit of more and more animal species, the probability of a zoonosis goes up.  Our population keeps increasing and being pulled into cities, which means more dense populations and greater transmissibility.  Eventually, there is a viral jump between an animal species and a human in a densely populated area.  The virus has a high transmissibility of its own and given that its unleashed within a population center, we can't contain it.  The conflagration will rage through until natural forces put an end to it, just like the wildfires in Yellowstone.

We don't know if Covid-2019 is going to be that,  but I don't think there is any doubt the world would be better off in the long run if 5, 10 or 20% of the population died off.  It would be awful for us as individuals and families in the moment, but from the perspective of a healthy world populated by humans that spans generations and centuries, it would be a correction towards planetary homeostasis.

So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Goredho

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

4 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

Consider the infected flight attendant. There is no one more likely to catch it, or to be more effective at spreading it.

Is anyone IRL telling family to stock up? I have fam who will likely die, even if they just run out of meds.

Flight attendants are probably 2nd most likely behind only Mall Santas.  Just be thankful this didn't hit 2 months sooner.

Edited February 27, 2020 by hopkinsnhorns

[2300 Nueces 163]

Some good news but will it be too late?

 

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

[Knoxtnhorn 5976]

Well at least this thread will likely hit the recruiting board's 1,000 page goal.

[Incredulity 11675]

On 2/25/2020 at 12:55 PM, Not a cat said:

Gary Samdusky?

"Why should I change my name, he's the one who sucks."

[Pato del Muerto 52504]

23 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Agreed if the US ever starts testing people.   If you have symptoms you can't just show up today at a Doctor's office or the hospital and get a test.  I figured that was the case but crazy that it took someone being admitted to the hospital for 5-6 days in California before they got around to testing them.  So they aren't even testing potential severe cases. I'm not sure when we'll actually get "official" reports of the increase but no doubt it's spreading all over currently.

Someone I know in nyc made an appt for their son yesterday, and was asked if they hat been to China or out of the country recently. Apparently that clinic would not see patients that might have it. So hooray medical system, and I guess bring your passport to the doctor. 

[MissingInAction 25087]

2 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

Some good news but will it be too late?

 

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

[Incredulity 11675]

16 minutes ago, Hate said:

If this is the case, I'm golden.  My son regularly brings home colds for me.  Last week he brought home Flu A which was nice, and yes we get our flu shots every year.  It was too late for either of us to get the meds so we had to ride it out.  It wasn't that bad though.  A couple of days of being exhausted and non stop runny nose and we were both good to go.  Come at me coronavirus.

This^^^^^

 

If its in the wild in the US, I am sure I have already been exposed.

I will keep everyone up to date if and when I die.

[Sbbruin 21856]

53 minutes ago, CheesePie said:

it acted more like a pharmaceutical pain killer than a psychedelic, I'm sure the effect can vary between users. When I get them delivered they're about the size of a brick layer's thumb, then I chop them down to reasonable size. Decided to eat to whole load last night and was conscious but couch ridden for who knows how long until I passed out. It was a lot, but desperate times call for desperate measures. I will add that I do still feel high.

[NoName 16352]

1 hour ago, akhornfan said:

It appears they’re in full cover up mode in the north bay. UC Davis trying to throw all the blame back on the CDC. Vacaville fire dept ordering to not deliver to two local hospitals but won’t say why. 

IIRC UC Davis requested a coronavirus test and CDC refused due to not coming in contact with people who traveled (they didn't think it could have been community acquired)

 

[VABuckeye 2472]

54 minutes ago, CheesePie said:

it acted more like a pharmaceutical pain killer than a psychedelic, I'm sure the effect can vary between users. When I get them delivered they're about the size of a brick layer's thumb, then I chop them down to reasonable size. Decided to eat to whole load last night and was conscious but couch ridden for who knows how long until I passed out. It was a lot, but desperate times call for desperate measures. I will add that I do still feel high.

Well, no fucking shit.  It's THC, not LSD.  If you took the approximately the same dosage of acid you'd be insanse, dead or both from your actions on that hellish trip.

Like Loco, 10 mg of THC and I'm a brick.

[Parliament 14260]

This test they can do for the virus. Is it expensive? Time-consuming? Why not test every patient who comes in with symptoms?

[atomheartbevo 89675]

4 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

Consider the infected flight attendant. There is no one more likely to catch it, or to be more effective at spreading it.

Is anyone IRL telling family to stock up? I have fam who will likely die, even if they just run out of meds.

I have been telling friends and family to, and explaining that it's more about them not having to make unnecesary trips (and increasing their exposure).  Also, that a few people sick here and there, such as some truck drivers, some grocery store workers, some processing facilities, etc., could easily tighten up things like the food supply.  Imagine if somebody at a grocery store gets the virus.  They might shut that store down and work on cleaning it, while they are quarantining his or her co-workers.  All of the sudden, thousands of people are having to use another store.  You. might not be able to easily get what you need, and you're exposed to many more people.

It's a ripple effect, but unlike say a hurricane or blizzards, there's not an immediate end to the hardships/danger in sight.

[atomheartbevo 89675]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

I learned last night that the school where my wife works has been cleaning the building out of concerns for the coronavirus for the last few weeks.  Once a week they come ine a disinfect above and beyond what they would ordinarily do.  I'm not sure if it is district wide or not, but I do know that the school she works at has more than a few Chinese nationals with kids there. 

The school my wife has been working at recently had been going through a lot of cleaning because of flu and stomach bugs going around.  They've done plenty of weekend cleanings as well.  So it shouldn't be much of a leap for them to clean more frequently and thoroughly for coronavirus. 

[NoName 16352]

25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I can.  

And Iran is jockeying for top spot in fuckups.

 

 

2nd part of her tweet: 

 

this seems bad...

 

 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The school my wife has been working at recently had been going through a lot of cleaning because of flu and stomach bugs going around.  They've done plenty of weekend cleanings as well.  So it shouldn't be much of a leap for them to clean more frequently and thoroughly for coronavirus. 

Have any pics of her cleaning? For proper technique, of course.

[Murfdogg21 4412]

22 minutes ago, Goredho said:

We don't know if Covid-2019 is going to be that,  but I don't think there is any doubt the world would be better off in the long run if 5, 10 or 20% of the population died off.  It would be awful for us as individuals and families in the moment, but from the perspective of a healthy world populated by humans that spans generations and centuries, it would be a correction towards planetary homeostasis.

[NoName 16352]

5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

This test they can do for the virus. Is it expensive? Time-consuming? Why not test every patient who comes in with symptoms?

before now, there had been zero cases of community acquired coronavirus, so even though she had symptoms, her profile and the likelihood of her actually having it was quite low 

now, why didn't they do the test anyway? who knows. but that is/was their rationale. 

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

So this is a Chinese decapitation strike on Iran, interesting. 

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Someone I know in nyc made an appt for their son yesterday, and was asked if they hat been to China or out of the country recently. Apparently that clinic would not see patients that might have it. So hooray medical system, and I guess bring your passport to the doctor. 

A coworker came back from a short vacation in Seattle last week.  A couple days later, he had flu symptoms so he went to his doctor.  They asked if he had travelled lately, and when they found out he had, they put him in a mask and isolated him.  A while later they came back and said there was an ambulance out front to transport him to the hospital.  They made him go to the ER to find out he had a cold, not the flu.  Wouldn't even do the flu test in their office.  Yeah, we're all fucked.

[CleverNickname 1311]

Gaming this out for ATX with wild ass guess variables. There are about 5000 hospital beds in the Austin area. Assume 100% of them are equipped with ventilators and oxygen (so every bed could help a Covid19 patient with severe symptoms). Figure maybe 50% of those beds are needed for non-Covid reasons. So: 2500 beds. Select your own WAG numbers.

Studies say maybe 15% need hospitalization.  But let's say only 1/3 really need ICU treatment and the other 2/3 just need IV hydration and care.

2500 / .05 = 50,000. It would take 50k active cases to put hospitals at all they can handle.

If more pessimistic assumptions: 15% need real ICU care. 2500/0.15 = 16.6k cases. Which means if more than that number people with severe cases simply die.

Even more pessimistic: maybe only 1000 ventilators (still very high, maybe a doc can chime in): 1000 / .15 = 6670 cases. So 20k cases at the same time.... 13k would die. 

[crash_davis 23113]

cool diagram of the infection.

 

[Skipper 6135]

5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

This test they can do for the virus. Is it expensive? Time-consuming? Why not test every patient who comes in with symptoms?

I read that at this point the US doesn't have the capacity/ability to test at any scale.  Which, if true, is pathetic and doesn't give me a lot of faith in the Govt (not that I had much already, but I would think we could be as prepared as f'n Italy).  I'm also not convinced it isn't just a strategy to limit the panic.  You can't confirm cases if you don't test!

[atomheartbevo 89675]

5 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

What does the rate of growth in Wuhan and other parts of China look like?  At this point, it's been over two months.  Is it still growing exponentially or has it flattened out?

Thanks.  I'll hang up and listen.

They are still building a shit-ton of makeshift hospitals, and factories are still running very slowly or not at all.  That says more about their situation than the fake numbers they are releasing.

[Parliament 14260]

Farming season starts in a month. Imagine if Coronavirus is going nuts then. If a large numbers of farmers, farm workers, suppliers, etc. are sick when they need to be planting corn, it could have a long impact. Not disastrous, but long.

 

Or livestock farms. Cows, pigs, chickens gotta eat.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

I read that at this point the US doesn't have the capacity/ability to test at any scale.  Which, if true, is pathetic and doesn't give me a lot of faith in the Govt (not that I had much already, but I would think we could be as prepared as f'n Italy).  I'm also not convinced it isn't just a strategy to limit the panic.  You can't confirm cases if you don't test!

A few days ago, the CDC had no backlog and claimed they tested over 400 people the previous night.  On the other hand, they had a bunch of budget and personnel cuts in recent years, and they really botched the Cali case.

[atomheartbevo 89675]

Just now, Parliament said:

Farming season starts in a month. Imagine if Coronavirus is going nuts then. If a large farmers, farm workers, suppliers are sick when they need to be planting corn, it could have a long impact. Not disastrous, but long.

Or livestock farms. Cows, pigs, chickens gotta eat.

It could be enough to shoot prices up, and higher food prices, combined with workforce impacts from business closures  (sick workers, not enough inventory from China, etc.), could put a helluva lot of people in a helluva lot of financial distress.

[HiggyBaby 2529]

Thought this was an interesting read. Falls in line with what my sister in law, an internist, has been telling us. Much ado about nothing, other than it spreads easily.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/asia/coronavirus-treament-recovery.html

[Junior Miller 1502]

Just spoked to a friend who's a doc in an Arlington hospital and they confirmed 3 cases this morning. All 3 Asians. 

[VABuckeye 2472]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A few days ago, the CDC had no backlog and claimed they tested over 400 people the previous night.  On the other hand, they had a bunch of budget and personnel cuts in recent years, and they really botched the Cali case.

I'm not going to get political here but don't believe everything you hear.  If you take a look at the AP report published today you'll find those budgets were not cut and have, in fact, increased.

Not going to link it here but it's easy enough to find.

[atomheartbevo 89675]

10 minutes ago, NoName said:

 

2nd part of her tweet: 

 

this seems bad...

 

 

IF they are having the same roughly 2% mortality rate, there should probably be in the thousands of infected.

[Skipper 6135]

According to this article testing about to finally ramp up in the U.S..   So expect that to mean that confirmed cases drastically increase as well.  But It certainly seems like the most plausible scenario is that the actual numbers in the U.S. are already in the thousands.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/27/809936132/cdc-fixes-issue-delaying-coronavirus-testing-in-u-s

[F250 28777]

Will this impact spring practice and the Orange-White game? Seriously, this shit better clear up by football season.

[CleverNickname 1311]

Google tells me that US averages 20 full mechanical ventilators per 100k of people. So Austin MSA of 1M better not have more than 200-300 severe cases requiring ventilators at any one time. Checking some stats; about 7% of beds can do full ventilation (62,188 ventilators and 924,107 staffed beds in entire US).

[VABuckeye 2472]

Quote

IF they are having the same roughly 2% mortality rate, there should probably be in the thousands of infected.

Or their healthcare and sanitary standards are so low that they're skewing the numbers. 

[drt 638]

5 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

Just spoked to a friend who's a doc in an Arlington hospital and they confirmed 3 cases this morning. All 3 Asians. 

VA or TX?

Edited February 27, 2020 by drt

[Dbeasy 15052]

#karma

Exactly! Obviously an event 40 years later is directly tied to hostage taking. #karmaonly40yearslater.

[Junior Miller 1502]

2 minutes ago, drt said:

VA or TX?

Texas

[atomheartbevo 89675]

4 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Gaming this out for ATX with wild ass guess variables. There are about 5000 hospital beds in the Austin area. Assume 100% of them are equipped with ventilators and oxygen (so every bed could help a Covid19 patient with severe symptoms). Figure maybe 50% of those beds are needed for non-Covid reasons. So: 2500 beds. Select your own WAG numbers.

Studies say maybe 15% need hospitalization.  But let's say only 1/3 really need ICU treatment and the other 2/3 just need IV hydration and care.

2500 / .05 = 50,000. It would take 50k active cases to put hospitals at all they can handle.

If more pessimistic assumptions: 15% need real ICU care. 2500/0.15 = 16.6k cases. Which means if more than that number people with severe cases simply die.

Even more pessimistic: maybe only 1000 ventilators (still very high, maybe a doc can chime in): 1000 / .15 = 6670 cases. So 20k cases at the same time.... 13k would die. 

Dude, there's probably 75% currently in use, if not more.

You're also leaving out the fact that there is no way they have enough PPE for all medical personnel, nor can they easily isolate many of those beds from the rest of the hospital/other patients.

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

IF they are having the same roughly 2% mortality rate, there should probably be in the thousands of infected.

Not to get too policital here, but this could be a good thing in the long run.  If a lot of the older hard-line Islamic Guard Iranians die off from COVID-19, it will make it easier for the younger pro-West, pro-Democracy population to rise up and take control.

Edited February 27, 2020 by hopkinsnhorns

[Skipper 6135]

3 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

Or their healthcare and sanitary standards are so low that they're skewing the numbers. 

If the US is just now able to figure out testing at a larger scale (purportedly, if you believe the CDC statement today), I can't fathom Iran is in a position to test at large capacities.  I'm assuming sick VIP's jump to the top of the list, but yeah, it seems obvious it is really widespread in Iran.

[B00M 6416]

3 minutes ago, HiggyBaby said:

Thought this was an interesting read. Falls in line with what my sister in law, an internist, has been telling us. Much ado about nothing, other than it spreads easily.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/asia/coronavirus-treament-recovery.html

 

Did you just get here?

If you have elderly friends or parents, especially if they smoked or have other underlying health issues, this is a very big deal. The way this spreads and requires ventilators for so many of those infected means it could easily overwhelm our medical system. People that would not have died from a flu are going to die from this. Don't be a dumbass that's part of the problem, heed the CDC's warnings.

[2300 Nueces 163]

Me thinks if China survives that there are going to be some reparations in order.  China is fVcked.

[NoName 16352]

18 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Gaming this out for ATX with wild ass guess variables. There are about 5000 hospital beds in the Austin area. Assume 100% of them are equipped with ventilators and oxygen (so every bed could help a Covid19 patient with severe symptoms). Figure maybe 50% of those beds are needed for non-Covid reasons. So: 2500 beds. Select your own WAG numbers.

Studies say maybe 15% need hospitalization.  But let's say only 1/3 really need ICU treatment and the other 2/3 just need IV hydration and care.

2500 / .05 = 50,000. It would take 50k active cases to put hospitals at all they can handle.

If more pessimistic assumptions: 15% need real ICU care. 2500/0.15 = 16.6k cases. Which means if more than that number people with severe cases simply die.

Even more pessimistic: maybe only 1000 ventilators (still very high, maybe a doc can chime in): 1000 / .15 = 6670 cases. So 20k cases at the same time.... 13k would die. 

I *highly* doubt that there are anywhere near 1000 ICU level/quality vents available in Austin 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

9 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

I'm not going to get political here but don't believe everything you hear.  If you take a look at the AP report published today you'll find those budgets were not cut and have, in fact, increased.

Not going to link it here but it's easy enough to find.

I thought they went through some cuts 4-5 years ago after the ebola hysteria started dying down a bit.

Still, if they can state publicly that there's no backlog and they had no problem testing 400 samples overnight, they should have already ramped up testing big-time, and they should be releasing the numbers.

This was a problem with China - nobody knew how many they were testing at any one time, so it was hard to get a feel if there were bottlenecks.

With that said, I think we are about to find a whole lot of new cases here in the US in the next 2-3 days.  No way the guy in Cali didn't infect at lease some of the people taking care of him.