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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
in Cloak Room

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Junior Miller

Junior Miller 1502

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Holy shit that would suck and make for some boring quarantine days

hopefully they would do what the Italian soccer teams are doing and playing the games but only televising it with no fans. that would be surrealisticly awesome having teams play for a national championship with absolutely no sound but the squeaking of shoes, yelling of coaches, and the mumblings of whatever announcers they have on there. 

A couple of years back I remember watching a Barcelona soccer match that was played in front of no fans because of the political unrest in Catalonia. It was funny because it looked like watching a scrimmage and you could clearly hear all the opponents repeatedly yelling "concha de su madre"! at Luis Suarez. 

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B00M

B00M 6455

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is the most rational post in this shit show of a freak out thread.

This makes sense coming from the cloak room guy that has repeatedly said humans should go extinct or at least be culled. 

sUpua6W.gif

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Edited by B00M
Imgur fix
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3281

Posted
Posted

The panic here is real. In Wuhan which has an insane population density and horrible living conditions, less than 1% of the population has gotten this disease. In America, where things are much more spread out and cleaner (save for maybe some inner city areas), this will not spread half as effectively. Relax, panic is what makes these things bad. 

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futureman

futureman 22527

Posted
Posted
Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

The panic here is real. In Wuhan which has an insane population density and horrible living conditions, less than 1% of the population has gotten this disease. In America, where things are much more spread out and cleaner (save for maybe some inner city areas), this will not spread half as effectively. Relax, panic is what makes these things bad. 

imagine the sheer terror when the media goes public with the number of american deaths caused by the flu every year. 

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NoName

NoName 16369

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, futureman said:

imagine the sheer terror when the media goes public with the number of american deaths caused by the flu every year. 

I'm just shocked that a bottom 5 poster on this website thinks that the coronavirus is the same level of bad as the flu. 

This is my shocked face.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

By the way if you get and use a full or half face respirator system with cartridges, don’t forget to decon it before you take it off, and don’t touch it with bare hands. Lysol or Clorox wipes. 

So, no spaghetti ?

 

 

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Coelenterate Fuccboi

Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

The panic here is real. In Wuhan which has an insane population density and horrible living conditions, less than 1% of the population has gotten this disease. In America, where things are much more spread out and cleaner (save for maybe some inner city areas), this will not spread half as effectively. Relax, panic is what makes these things bad. 

Agree on the panic but I’m not taking China’s word on numbers.

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Junior Miller

Junior Miller 1502

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

The panic here is real. In Wuhan which has an insane population density and horrible living conditions, less than 1% of the population has gotten this disease. 

sad GIF by I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here! Australia

 

But seriously, part of the reason it hasn't gotten even worse in China than whatever it is currently stands is because they've been under self quarantine in their homes for the most part. if we get to that point where you have to stay in your home for a few weeks you might as well have some food, water, booze and weed already waiting. 

 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62785

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, 2300 Nueces said:

Me thinks if China survives that there are going to be some reparations in order.  China is fVcked.

In a thread chock full of hysterical, and I mean hysterical, shit being posted, this is the one that truly had me bust out laughing. Holy fucking shit. "if China survives". Hahahahahahahahaha. You mean that 5,000+ year old place that has survived every civilized thing ever to have occurred on this planet? You think those guys might have an iffy shot of survival? Outstanding. 

 

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Spur08

Spur08 382

Posted
Posted (edited)

Healthcare worker in DFW here.  I'm calling the Arlington debacle BS.  Just think about how quickly it went public that an Ebola pt hit THR Dallas - there's no way they could keep a positive coronavirus pt quiet.  I do know the ID doc at Memorial -- maybe I should reach out..

 

That being said, I'm feeling pretty good about myself since I'm a mid-30s, somewhat healthy man.  My 2 year old, who had coronavirus last year, has no doubt given my immune system a boost since she was brought into this world.  Hell, when I went to pick her up yesterday, there wasn't a dry nose in her entire class!  I'm talking gobs of snot rolling down both nostrils of every kid in that room.  Thankfully, she is (we are) on the tail end of her little cold that has been passed around that school and our household.  

 

We will be fine.  It's the ArmyBrats of the neighborhood who are fucked.  As others have touched on, the majority casualties will come from the health system bottleneck/supply shortage that is most certainly going to occur.  Medline's main manufacturing plant that produces PPE is located in Wuhan.  Additionally, their government just extended the Chinese NY holiday so more people can stay at home.  Halyard is the only PPE manufacturer in the US and they won't be able to scale fast enough.  Almost all of the hospitals that I work at already had a PPE (gown) shortage from Cardinal fucking up and contaminating massive lots of gowns.  Serious procedures have already had to be cancelled due to the lack of gowns in December.  Most hospitals are trying to get in 4x supply orders to get items on hand as quickly as possible, but the pre-existing supply is going to dry up..soon.

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Somnio

Somnio 751

Posted
Posted

Of course China will survive.  But it is not out of the realm of possibility this could be this century's Spanish Flu, which infected 1/3 of the world's population, and killed 50 million.

At the same percentages with the current population you'd be looking at 2.5 Billion infections, and 250 Million deaths.

I do not believe we will see numbers that extreme, certainly not in the number of deaths.

However, it would not be necessary for it to be that bad for this to be an unmitigated disaster on a global scale.

Yes that is possible, and yes people are panicking.  But not for lack of a reason.  This is probably going to get really bad.

 

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PhillyD

PhillyD 1257

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Spur08 said:

 

 

That being said, I'm feeling pretty good about myself since I'm a mid-30s, somewhat healthy man.  My 2 year old, who had coronavirus last year, has no doubt given my immune system a boost since she was brought into this world.  Hell, when I went to pick her up yesterday, there wasn't a dry nose in her entire class!  I'm talking gobs of snot rolling down both nostrils of every kid in that room.  Thankfully, she is (we are) on the tail end of her little cold that has been passed around that school and our household.  

 

 

If anyone else finds themselves in this situation, take the opportunity to smear some of those snot gobs near your nostrils.  It's the fastest way to build immunity to Coronovirus.  Godspeed to us all.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted

Los Alamos reanalyzed Chinese data to estimate the initial  R0 was 4.7 to 6.6 and the doubling period 2.4 days.

If we assume community spread is three people removed from person zero for a given cluster of cases with an R0 of 4 that means 64 people might be infected.

It takes 4.5 days on average before symptoms and the average person waits 5 days before being hospitalized. Intubation, when necessary, happens in 7 to 9 days after initial  symptoms. So the woman in NorCal was infected over three weeks ago. During that time the number of cases have doubled 7 to 9 times. Compute 64 to the 7th or 9th power to get an estimate the current  number of infected in that cluster alone.

A YouTube channel called Peak Prosperity quoted a study that analyzed how many cases there had to be in Iran for the first three cases of transmission outside the  country to occur. There result was a 95% confidence range if 4000 to 50000 with a mean of 18000. Given there are more than a dozen such cases now the number of infected in Iran is over 100,000.

Given the number of foreign transmission cases from Italy they also have over 100,000 infected. Of course, Korea and Japan have probably passed 100,000 as well. I suspect Thailand and North Korea have too, but they are not reporting. 

Given those numbers either a lot of deaths are not being properly reported or the case fatality rate is lower than is being reported. We can hope it is the later.

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MissingInAction

MissingInAction 25169

Posted
Posted

My concern isnt the virus, it's the actual ( not surly) panic that will ensue once a case is reported in Austin. My fridge has the usual stock of two weeks food and beer, and I bought 6 weeks supply of canned goods just in case.

If nothing happens Ill feed off that for the 3 months. Who cares. Better to have it and not need it.

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Loco

Loco 3753

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

My concern isnt the virus, it's the actual ( not surly) panic that will ensue once a case is reported in Austin.

And the subsequent run on cotton balls... It's going to be a mad house

 

also this is ... interesting

 

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B00M

B00M 6455

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Los Alamos reanalyzed Chinese data to estimate the initial  R0 was 4.7 to 6.6 and the doubling period 2.4 days.

If we assume community spread is three people removed from person zero for a given cluster of cases with an R0 of 4 that means 64 people might be infected.

It takes 4.5 days on average before symptoms and the average person waits 5 days before being hospitalized. Intubation, when necessary, happens in 7 to 9 days after initial  symptoms. So the woman in NorCal was infected over three weeks ago. During that time the number of cases have doubled 7 to 9 times. Compute 64 to the 7th or 9th power to get an estimate the current  number of infected in that cluster alone.

 

64*2^7 to 64*2^9 = 8,192 to 32,768

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Los Alamos reanalyzed Chinese data to estimate the initial  R0 was 4.7 to 6.6 and the doubling period 2.4 days.

If we assume community spread is three people removed from person zero for a given cluster of cases with an R0 of 4 that means 64 people might be infected.

It takes 4.5 days on average before symptoms and the average person waits 5 days before being hospitalized. Intubation, when necessary, happens in 7 to 9 days after initial  symptoms. So the woman in NorCal was infected over three weeks ago. During that time the number of cases have doubled 7 to 9 times. Compute 64 to the 7th or 9th power to get an estimate the current  number of infected in that cluster alone.

A YouTube channel called Peak Prosperity quoted a study that analyzed how many cases there had to be in Iran for the first three cases of transmission outside the  country to occur. There result was a 95% confidence range if 4000 to 50000 with a mean of 18000. Given there are more than a dozen such cases now the number of infected in Iran is over 100,000.

Given the number of foreign transmission cases from Italy they also have over 100,000 infected. Of course, Korea and Japan have probably passed 100,000 as well. I suspect Thailand and North Korea have too, but they are not reporting. 

Given those numbers either a lot of deaths are not being properly reported or the case fatality rate is lower than is being reported. We can hope it is the later.

The latter (case fatality rate) definitely seems more likely given the lack of high volume application of specific testing globally - i.e. lots and lots of formally unrecognized people with active disease not dying.

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ButtFumble

ButtFumble 5183

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Loco said:

What % of those are family farmers Vs Large Agri-business ?   Seriously I have no idea, but in my head the vast majority of crops/farms are run by agro-corps.  School me

I would bet it is under 10% across all ag production that is operated by a "corporation" in terms of the person that makes the decisions does not get out there and actually operate a means of production

it might be higher in the dairy industry where large dairies are becoming more the norm and the owner/operator is not out there in the parlors, but even then most of those owner operators could get out there and do the jobs if they needed to

in general grain farming you are probably looking at well under 10% that is operated by people that do not get in the tractor or combine

with poultry and pork you might be near the 10% level, but again the owners and decision makers could probably get out there and do the work if needed

cattle production probably much lower is "corporate"

in some vegetable production and major fruits the number might be at 10% or a little higher with smaller vegetables and fruits you are looking at under that I would bet

now the processing and storage of a lot of that will have a massive % of corporate ownership

sugar is probably an exception to this, but the USA produces no real quantity of meaningful sugar

even if I am low in my guestimated % the reality is for most products especially meat, dairy, vegetables and the like a skilled person can quickly get others with any reasonable ability up to snuff on what to do to get the product produced and they simply need warm bodies to get it done....there might be a decrease in some productivity with not getting the crop in the ground in the optimum time or with the planter not being set properly or operated as best as possible, but the job will get done

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Seger78

Seger78 258

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Bevo said:

I would guess that there are no commercially available tests. They probably are doing rt-PCR tests using specific primers provided by the CDC as well as a protocol developed by the CDC. The primer sequences can be made by any sequencing lab and the protocol is readily available so as long as labs have the equipment testing should be straightforward. However, the materials wouldn't be in the standard premade kits that most labs use. Keep in mind that I'm more familiar with products used for research purposes than those used by clinical labs.

If they are using RT PCR for this test and have primer sequences designed, it should be pretty straight forward to sub in these primers in to an already in use RT PCR kit. The only caveat is that nothing is ever that easy in terms of regulated medical testing.

The largest provider for DNA oligos that I know of (IDT) has a dedicated ordering page for Coronavirus projects that is expediting all orders for anything coronavirus related, but they are usually able synthesize and ship primers overnight anyway unless they need any special modifications or purification. 

Edited by Seger78
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Bevo

Bevo 13596

Posted
Posted
Just now, Seger78 said:

If they are using RT PCR for this test and have primer sequences designed it should be pretty straight forward to sub in these primers in to an already in use RT PCR kit. The only caveat is that nothing is ever that easy in terms of regulated medical testing.

The largest provider for DNA oligos that I know of (IDT) has a dedicated ordering page for Coronavirus projects that is expediting all orders for anything coronavirus related, but they are usually able synthesize and ship primers overnight anyway unless they need any special modifications or purification. 

Yeah, you got it. The primers are easy enough to make but I assume the issue is made more complex because they are being used in the clinic rather than the lab.

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VABuckeye

VABuckeye 2472

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I'm not too worried about a mask. But just in case things get really bad--panic or bodies in trees, I'm considering asking my husband to buy a blue shed. That will withstand anything. And if it isn't needed for Coronavirus then I would have a blue sheshed.

Or that tower in Dallas.  That's either the strongest building or the weakest wrecking ball I've seen.

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