Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Helobious 9463]

2 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Went to run a few errands in a major shopping area and it was completely dead. I went into Panera at 12:30 and I was one of 4 customers in there. Then went to the grocery store and it was equally empty.

It’s almost like it’s a workday or something. 

[atomheartbevo 89750]

32 minutes ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

Jesus- you panicky bitches are why the stock market is in the tank. The mortality rate is falsely elevated due to the fact that only severe cases are being tested and confirmed. There are countless other asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic cases that aren’t confirmed. The flu is still going to kill more people this year than the coronavirus by a long shot. Everyone needs to calm the fuck down, practice good hygiene and keep living a normal life.

So the stock market tanked because:

A. This thread and its posters

B. There is a fuck-ton of empty or mostly-empty container ships parked off the coast of China

C. Companies like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, etc. are being impacted by shut-down factories in China, including delayed product launches.

I'm just going to take a wild guess and say it's B and C. 

I'm sure you are a business genius who will explain to us how things not being manufactured and shipped from China have absolutely no impact on the stock market.

[Goredho 17412]

36 minutes ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

Jesus- you panicky bitches are why the stock market is in the tank. The mortality rate is falsely elevated due to the fact that only severe cases are being tested and confirmed. There are countless other asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic cases that aren’t confirmed. The flu is still going to kill more people this year than the coronavirus by a long shot. Everyone needs to calm the fuck down, practice good hygiene and keep living a normal life.

Finally!!  Someone with the courage to stand up for their portfolio.  I would like to shake your hand (after blowing my nose).

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

21 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

 

If China is underreporting by a factor of 10, you still wouldnt break 1%, if you go by their numbers its under 0.1%

New reports are out that infections were underreported at a rate of 52 times less in Shandong Province in China.  Take that .1% and make it more like 5%.

[Deej 76855]

13 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Went to run a few errands in a major shopping area and it was completely dead. I went into Panera at 12:30 and I was one of 4 customers in there. Then went to the grocery store and it was equally empty.

Everyone is already dead. 

[StruggleBus 3922]

16 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Went to run a few errands in a major shopping area and it was completely dead. I went into Panera at 12:30 and I was one of 4 customers in there. Then went to the grocery store and it was equally empty.

Get a job hippie

[Loco 3753]

 

[CleverNickname 1321]

FWIW annually between 10M and 50M get the flu in the US since 2010. And that's with 40% of adults getting flu shots (that are admittedly often no better than 2/3 effective and some years far worse) to help with herd immunity. 

CFR seems to be just under 1%. Call it 0.85%. That would kill 170k if 20M caught it (if 6.7% caught it). If 40% caught it, you're talking 1M dead in the US alone.

[HenryJames 66134]

7 minutes ago, Loco said:

 

[MissingInAction 25121]

2 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

FWIW annually between 10M and 50M get the flu in the US since 2010. And that's with 40% of adults getting flu shots (that are admittedly often no better than 2/3 effective and some years far worse) to help with herd immunity. 

CFR seems to be just under 1%. Call it 0.85%. That would kill 170k if 20M caught it (if 6.7% caught it). If 40% caught it, you're talking 1M dead in the US alone.

[akhornfan 4]

@CleverNickname what assumptions are you making to get to the .85% CFR?

[Bigbend1812 12927]

Just rounded at MCA Arlington.... peace out bitches!

 

[DaysOff 7959]

 

Wtf does that even mean? It's already in 40 or 50 countries.

[tx 3 putt 77204]

Avoid the Houston Costco on Richmond. I’ve never seen this many people here. 
 

cray cray , avoid !!!!!

[Okie State 3821]

Avoid the Houston Costco on Richmond. I’ve never seen this many people here. 
 
cray cray , avoid !!!!!

Due to the water main break though, right? Heard people were freaking the hell out buying palettes of water. Just a glimpse into what will happen if this thing blows up.

[tx 3 putt 77204]

Im her for gas but seeing lot of baskets with bulk food

[Js1 85447]

31 minutes ago, Deej said:

Everyone is already dead. 

[Baconboy 135]

29 minutes ago, Okie State said:

33 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Avoid the Houston Costco on Richmond. I’ve never seen this many people here. 
 
cray cray , avoid !!!!!

Due to the water main break though, right? Heard people were freaking the hell out buying palettes of water. Just a glimpse into what will happen if this thing blows up.

It's both. They ran out of water yesterday due to the water main break, but also ran out of Clorox wipes due to WuFlu. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Baconboy

[CleverNickname 1321]

44 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

@CleverNickname what assumptions are you making to get to the .85% CFR?

That's my half ass analysts from Diamond Princess. I think JAMA has an analysis of 70k cases for 0.07%.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, but if you wring out ten Clorox wipes, you get a full glass of water.  

[hayden_horn 11364]

1 hour ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Went to run a few errands in a major shopping area and it was completely dead. I went into Panera at 12:30 and I was one of 4 customers in there. Then went to the grocery store and it was equally empty.

 

[Apep 645]

I went to Aldi today and it was pretty dead. No one buying a ton except me, and, honestly, I only bought a few extra things compared to my normal monthly shopping trip. Tons of canned goods left. Lots of rice, even the really big bags. They did seem low on beans, but that appears to be a merchandising decision from a few months ago.

[Pig Bellmont 8719]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

So the stock market tanked because:

A. This thread and its posters

B. There is a fuck-ton of empty or mostly-empty container ships parked off the coast of China

C. Companies like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, etc. are being impacted by shut-down factories in China, including delayed product launches.

I'm just going to take a wild guess and say it's B and C. 

I'm sure you are a business genius who will explain to us how things not being manufactured and shipped from China have absolutely no impact on the stock market.

Exactly. Oh and Japan closed school for a month because it’s just panicky and no big deal

[NoName 16364]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Agree. But the Clerics are going to double down and say Nope.. 

 

 

 

 

[Tailgate 3022]

My flight to Dallas has a Los Angeles flight crew. Nice knowing y’all.

[Brisketexan 105168]

16 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

That's my half ass analysts from Diamond Princess. I think JAMA has an analysis of 70k cases for 0.07%.

Yeah, my expectation is that the data is currently shit.  Even to the extent that we know the actual fatality numbers, those are out of what set of cases?  All people infected?  All people specifically identified as infected by a government authority?  All infected people who sought treatment?

So, we may have 100 deaths.  But 100,000 people actually were infected (most of which were asymptomatic of had very mild symptoms), meaning a CFR of .01.  Or, we have 100 deaths measured against the 50,000 identified as infected by the government, for a CFR of .02?  Or maybe it's just measured against the 10,000 who sought treatment, making it a CFR of .1?

Data right now has to be pure shit and unreliable, right?  I mean, I suspect that the number of deaths on its own is alarming enough -- it's cold comfort to know that it's not as high a CFR as we feared, BUT, the infection rate is 5X any other comparable disease, so your absolute chances of catching a fatal illness are higher than they used to be.

[Js1 85447]

22 minutes ago, NoName said:

 

 

Wow, Iran needs to stop being so reactionary and panicky. 

[triplehorn 2664]

Keep an eye on the ‘case hospitalization rate’ which could be an order of magnitude higher than case death rate.  That’s the metric that could overwhelm our system.  It would also affect many others needing urgent treatment for the full array of non-covid medical needs.

[Somnio 751]

2 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Went to run a few errands in a major shopping area and it was completely dead. I went into Panera at 12:30 and I was one of 4 customers in there. Then went to the grocery store and it was equally empty.

Everyone's already dead.  Sorry to break the news.  RIP everybody.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Keep an eye on the ‘case hospitalization rate’ which could be an order of magnitude higher than case death rate.  That’s the metric that could overwhelm our system.  It would also affect many others needing urgent treatment for the full array of non-covid medical needs.

That’s really gonna suck.

I’m guessing the majority of us if/when we get it...can just stay home and defeat it. The ones who have other issues on top of probably getting it is a double whammy...and then having no room in a hospital on top of that makes it suck

[Somnio 751]

1 hour ago, Deej said:

Everyone is already dead. 

Damnit.

[Biff Tannen 45694]

13 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Everyone's already dead.  Sorry to break the news.  RIP everybody.

[Txzen 498]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So the stock market tanked because:

A. This thread and its posters

B. There is a fuck-ton of empty or mostly-empty container ships parked off the coast of China

C. Companies like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, etc. are being impacted by shut-down factories in China, including delayed product launches.

I'm just going to take a wild guess and say it's B and C. 

I'm sure you are a business genius who will explain to us how things not being manufactured and shipped from China have absolutely no impact on the stock market.

He's just become 'unstuck in time'.

[Somnio 751]

My new projection is 2.5 billion infected, with 20% needing hospitalization.

Obviously there are not enough hospitals in the world for 500 million patients.

Unfortunately this will cause the death rate to rise substantially higher, though the virus itself will not inherently be anymore dangerous.  Our health care system will simply be unable to cope.

So, I believe the total deaths will end up being around 100 million worldwide.

These numbers would mean it infected the same percentage of the world's population as Spanish Flu (1/3), but have a substantially lower death rate (4% vs 10%).

Who the fuck am I to make such projections?  Nobody.

But I believe we are at the beginning of a very dark time, and the numbers I posted while shocking are very fucking possible.

Hopefully I'm full of shit, and it just disappears any day now like a miracle.

[Homesickhorn 2203]

3 hours ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

Jesus- you panicky bitches are why the stock market is in the tank. The mortality rate is falsely elevated due to the fact that only severe cases are being tested and confirmed. There are countless other asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic cases that aren’t confirmed. The flu is still going to kill more people this year than the coronavirus by a long shot. Everyone needs to calm the fuck down, practice good hygiene and keep living a normal life.

Great, now I'm gonna have to sell my boat.

[Brisketexan 105168]

8 minutes ago, Somnio said:

My new projection is 2.5 billion infected, with 20% needing hospitalization.

Obviously there are not enough hospitals in the world for 500 million patients.

Unfortunately this will cause the death rate to rise substantially higher, though the virus itself will not inherently be anymore dangerous.  Our health care system will simply be unable to cope.

So, I believe the total deaths will end up being around 100 million worldwide.

These numbers would mean it infected the same percentage of the world's population as Spanish Flu (1/3), but have a substantially lower death rate (4% vs 10%).

Who the fuck am I to make such projections?  Nobody.

But I believe we are at the beginning of a very dark time, and the numbers I posted while shocking are very fucking possible.

Hopefully I'm full of shit, and it just disappears any day now like a miracle.

Dude....a projection is something based on evidence and data.  What you just posted....shit, it isn't even a guess.  It's just a number pulled out of your ass.

[Brisketexan 105168]

1 minute ago, Homesickhorn said:

Great, now I'm gonna have to sell my boat.

I dunno of I'd do that....a good boat might come in handy....

[Js1 85447]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude....a projection is something based on evidence and data.  What you just posted....shit, it isn't even a guess.  It's just a number pulled out of your ass.

So...a conjecture? 

[Brisketexan 105168]

Just now, Js1 said:

So...a conjecture? 

Hypothesis produced via rectal extraction.

[triplehorn 2664]

fantasy ?

 

or reality 

 

[Somnio 751]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude....a projection is something based on evidence and data.  What you just posted....shit, it isn't even a guess.  It's just a number pulled out of your ass.

If you say so.  I've seen projections calling for far more than 1/3 getting this virus.

I've seen 20% needing hospitalization said by many sources.

Maybe only 20% catch it, and only 10% of those need to be in a hospital.

Punch in the numbers, its still millions of deaths.

 

I know it's shocking to consider, but what I posted is not as absurd as you seem to think.

[CleverNickname 1321]

If you want to be super negative:

Among cases identified as "closed" (dead + recovered) 2876 out of 39756 have died, 7%. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude....a projection is something based on evidence and data.  What you just posted....shit, it isn't even a guess.  It's just a number pulled out of your ass.

If it becomes a pandemic and only 2.5% of the world's population is effected that is ~200 million people. If 10% of those need hospitalization that is 20 million people. That is mind boggling.

Also, keep in mind if millions of beds and respirators are all tied up you going to see a lot of people die from things we can normally treat but have no basic resources available to treat.

[Js1 85447]

17 minutes ago, Homesickhorn said:

Great, now I'm gonna have to sell my boat.

Thoughts and prayers. 

[Sbbruin 21865]

18 minutes ago, Homesickhorn said:

Great, now I'm gonna have to sell my boat.

Dude, I'm using my boat like an escape pod when people start dropping off like flies.  Then I'll just roll back and take over the place.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21912]

6 minutes ago, Somnio said:

If you say so.  I've seen projections calling for far more than 1/3 getting this virus.

I've seen 20% needing hospitalization said by many sources.

Maybe only 20% catch it, and only 10% of those need to be in a hospital.

Punch in the numbers, its still millions of deaths.

 

I know it's shocking to consider, but what I posted is not as absurd as you seem to think.

The infection rate wasn't even that high for the cruise ship prisoners and that was a situation would should have a produced much higher than normal infection rate. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

I say exactly half the population needs hospitalization, and the other half the population will be the nurses standing at the bedside.  then the nurses will contract it from the sick, while the sick learn nursing through observation of their care.  simultaneously, everyone lying down recovers and stands up, and those standing up lie down in the bed sick.  this rotation works on 2 week shifts ad infinitum. 

[atomheartbevo 89750]

1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Exactly. Oh and Japan closed school for a month because it’s just panicky and no big deal

Stock market will be fun if Sony, Apple, and Microsoft have to push their fall/winter console releases and iPad/iPhone/etc. launches into next year.    And I’m sure it will be the fault of this thread.  

[akhornfan 4]

I think we’re probably at the point where we’re not going to accurately know how many people actually become infected. Even if we trust the numbers from the Chinese, they’re obviously not testing everyone, even with Wuhan, let alone Hubei. 
So there are going to be untested cases that end in recovery that will never be included in the numbers. We’ll only know some number of serious cases and maybe an accurate count of deaths. 
The same things appears that it’s going to be true for the infections in developed countries as well. The US isn’t showing any competency in testing at all.

So attempts to multiply populations x infection rate x mortality are all just wild guesses and I’d take the under on every one that I’ve seen so far.

 

[UT_OB1 2224]

2 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

The infection rate wasn't even that high for the cruise ship prisoners and that was a situation would should have a produced much higher than normal infection rate. 

Exactly.  Cruise ship full of old people, with probably the worst case for transmission, and only 700 got it, and 7 died.  So 1% of old people.