Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[B00M 6,414]

11 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Seattle Mariners home opener is March 26, by the way.

 

And it was fabulous!

Maybe not the most appropriate time to work on your runway walk 

 

[Somnio 751]

15 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

politics is current and future events.

the past is history and is fair game in the discussion of (macro)economic constructs.

if intended/directed to/at me, i maintain that my posts are NOT political.

post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

 

[NoName 16,351]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

I’m curious, does the FDA have a “fuck the clinical trials” protocol in case there’s a situation where a vaccine needs to be ready to go in, say, a few months, or humanity gets wiped out?

it is almost guaranteed that there isn't one available in the next few months. 

 

[Celery Man 20,934]

Swung by Whole Foods on the way home.  Holy balls Costco.

[Goredho 17,399]

5 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Watching this real outbreak makes me appreciate the accuracy of plague, inc’s outbreak model.

[gyroprotagonist 2,592]

3 hours ago, triplehorn said:

Covid-19 could be the near future harbinger of more of this kind of thing becoming global standard in high traffic places:

  Reveal hidden contents

SELF SANITIZING DOOR HANDLE

• The device uses ultraviolet light to cause a chemical reaction that kills germs.
• In tests, it was able to kill 99.8% of microbes on the door handle.

This may bar me from competing on a HS Robotics team, but did anyone check the names on this invention.  We may be getting trolled

Quote

Created by

Team members

• Sum Ming Wong
• Kin Pong Li

 

University / Institution

• The Chinese University

Just saying...

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

4 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Swung by Whole Foods on the way home.  Holy balls Costco.

It was a mad house Saturday. Even the employees were making comments how crazy it was. 

[Abogado Peligroso 89]

So, should I go to the spurs game tonight as planned?

[InkaUtexas 25,907]

 

[Okie State 3,818]

Swung by Whole Foods on the way home.  Holy balls Costco.

Ran by Target after lunch to pick up some DIY hand sanitizer ingredients. Only one guy with his cart loaded down with water and canned food. A few people looking at medicine. Most others buying shitty decor for their homes.

[Skipper 6,133]

It really is going to be an interesting balancing act between slowing the spread and not completely shutting down the economy.  I think at a given some schools will close temporarily once someone is impacted, businesses may encourage employees to work from home (and may in some instances close for a period of time if spread within the business).  But do we really expect to see things like concerts cancelled and the NCAA tournament, NBA/NHL Playoffs, etc. played with no audience?  Will restaurants/movie theaters close?  Or will we go on as usual with increased PSA's about staying home if sick and sanitizer everywhere (to the extent venues can source it).  We have a company wide meeting scheduled 2.5 weeks from now.   I think odds are it's cancelled but we'll see.

[NoName 16,351]

searching @ twitter and found this guy...

 

 

 

[Loco 3,752]

 

[VABuckeye 2,472]

Quote

That's what I'm working on tomorrow

Because why work on it today, Theodore?  

[Bevo 13,576]

29 minutes ago, OU Sucks said:

 

aggy on top of the situation, too:

Actually, it is not true. 

 Researchers from The University of Texas at Austin and the National Institutes of Health have made a critical breakthrough toward developing a vaccine for the 2019 novel coronavirus by creating the first 3D atomic scale map of the part of the virus that attaches to and infects human cells.

Mapping this part, called the spike protein, is an essential step so researchers around the world can develop vaccines and antiviral drugs to combat the virus. The paper was published Wednesday, Feb. 19 in the journal Science.

 

And this is very helpful because vaccines and treatments will target the spike protein as it is what the virus uses to enter cells via the angiotensin II receptor. 

39 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Friend who works for a state rep has the impression Texas is relying upon/taking direction from DC on everything.    Legislature is out until next year though, but she’s trying to find out what’s going on (they just put her dad in a nursing home, so she’s rethinking that).   

But hey, city of Austin has been monitoring international travelers for three weeks now.  Well, calling and emailing and getting their temperatures every day, so we got that going for us.   

Need to ask her if there’s any chatter about SXSW.  

Rockville, MD and HHS in DC

[NoName 16,351]

1 minute ago, VABuckeye said:

Because why work on it today, Theodore?  

BECAUSE THE ELITES WILL SILENCE HIM IF HE MOVES TOO QUICKLY, DUH

 

[JesusSweatDuck 17,781]

1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

and one of those dx'd with corona in King Co. WA was a US Postal worker.  someone half joked over the weekend about an Amazon warehouser having it.  No idea if the USPS person was a mail handler.

I read an article that she was not a mail handler.  I'll see if I can find it

 

Edit: Found it - https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/local-usps-employee-tests-positive-coronavirus/XLKCBEXO5FFJ3DRQSBHNACPW2M/

Quote

The Network Distribution Center is a mail-processing plant that distributes USPS marketing mail and package services in piece and bulk form and does not handle letter mail. No mail is delivered from the facility.

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by JesusSweatDuck
m

[Newdoc 3,439]

What’s Theodore’s surly name? Pretty sure he post in the CR.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,091]

2 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I read an article that she was not a mail handler.  I'll see if I can find it

Well, of course not, she’s obviously a female handler.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

searching @ twitter and found this guy...

Found a nerd that posts 27 tweets by noon every day?

[michaelpshayes 417]

4 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

What’s Theodore’s surly name? Pretty sure he post in the CR.

pretty sure he posts in this thread...a lot 

[SydneyCarton 48,076]

11 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Actually, it is not true. 

 Researchers from The University of Texas at Austin and the National Institutes of Health have made a critical breakthrough toward developing a vaccine for the 2019 novel coronavirus by creating the first 3D atomic scale map of the part of the virus that attaches to and infects human cells.

Mapping this part, called the spike protein, is an essential step so researchers around the world can develop vaccines and antiviral drugs to combat the virus. The paper was published Wednesday, Feb. 19 in the journal Science.

 

And this is very helpful because vaccines and treatments will target the spike protein as it is what the virus uses to enter cells via the angiotensin II receptor. 

Rockville, MD and HHS in DC

I mean, Jesus, man. You realize that photoshop was a joke to indicate that CS were leaders in being infected by it, right?

[Girdwood 118]

16 minutes ago, NoName said:

searching @ twitter and found this guy...

 

 

 

[SydneyCarton 48,076]

11 minutes ago, NoName said:

BECAUSE THE ELITES WILL SILENCE HIM IF HE MOVES TOO QUICKLY, DUH

 

You know, when I'm worried about the Elites shutting me down, the first thing I better do is email the politicians who are in the pockets of donors. Great idea. When he's scared of gators, this guy's first move would be to tie raw chicken to himself and go for a swim in the glades. Good news is his 991 followers are going to be a real powerhouse for change. 

[SydneyCarton 48,076]

9 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

What’s Theodore’s surly name? Pretty sure he post in the CR.

He posts on surly as Randolph Duke. 

[achooloco 1,067]

12 minutes ago, Skipper said:

But do we really expect to see things like concerts cancelled and the NCAA tournament, NBA/NHL Playoffs, etc. played with no audience?  Will restaurants/movie theaters close? .

For March madness, sure why not? If the case load here mimics the ones in Italy, China, sk then right around tourney time shit will be nuts. Playing the games with no audience is a good compromise.

Do more than a nominal amount of people even watch the nhl playoffs if there City team isn’t in it? As for the NBA playoffs, they start in late April? Hopefully we have a good handle on stuff by then, and business can go back to normal.

Theaters and restaurants might be fucked for a few weeks though. But if Milan is opening up tourist places again today, maybe we dodged a bullet. 

[Skipper 6,133]

5 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Do more than a nominal amount of people even watch the nhl playoffs if there City team isn’t in it? As for the NBA playoffs, they start in late April? Hopefully we have a good handle on stuff by then, and business can go back to normal.

I don't know what data we've seen makes us think things will be better by late April.   Even if weather slows the spread (still purely speculative as far as I know) I don't think we would see that impact until late May or June.

[Captainant 27,654]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

I don't know what data we've seen makes us think things will be better by late April.   Even if weather slows the spread (still purely speculative as far as I know) I don't think we would see that impact until late May or June.

It's worth remembering that in the 1918 flu pandemic, things did indeed calm down quite a bit during the warmer months only for the pandemic to return in greater numbers in the fall. Assuming this has the same general "shape" as that pandemic, we'll have a very unpleasant fall. And for more reasons than just the election happening

[Brisketexan 105,095]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's worth remembering that in the 1918 flu pandemic, things did indeed calm down quite a bit during the warmer months only for the pandemic to return in greater numbers in the fall. Assuming this has the same general "shape" as that pandemic, we'll have a very unpleasant fall. And for more reasons than just the election happening

Have a cousin who's a Princeton PhD microbiologist -- this is exactly the shot she called.  We'll get it somewhat under control this spring, think the worst has passed over the summer, then get caught with our pants down in the fall.

[Hagbard Celine 10,853]

14 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

He posts on surly as Randolph Duke. 

that is not fair and not nice.  i dont' like your tone.

[GHOSTUSER 361]

The woman, who was evacuated from Wuhan, China, was taken early Sunday back to the Texas Center for Infectious Disease, where 10 other coronavirus patients are being treated in isolation. Her hotel room was closed off and disinfected.

Metro Health officials began to retrace the woman’s steps and learned she had taken a hotel shuttle to North Star Mall, one of the city’s busiest retail centers, where she stayed from approximately 5:30 to 7:30 p.m. on Saturday. She spent much of that time alone at the food court, eating Chinese food.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Iconoclast Texan

[Goredho 17,399]

31 minutes ago, NoName said:

BECAUSE THE ELITES WILL SILENCE HIM IF HE MOVES TOO QUICKLY, DUH

 

I’m confused.  Isn’t that what Surly is?

[Hagbard Celine 10,853]

16 minutes ago, achooloco said:

But if Milan is opening up tourist places again today, maybe we dodged a bullet. 

The Nips came in to the market last night and did the Chinese a solid, but the only way this rally is holding is if there actually some grain of truth in the Wuhan death rate flattening off.

[GHOSTUSER 361]

After spending time in China and seeing what they really eat, it made me really appreciate Americanized Chinese food even more. It's my go to comfort food.

[texasdago 7,570]

1 hour ago, Not a cat said:

is it the dagos?

It is indeed.

 

I mean, look, the virus is out and strolling about. We need to learn how to manage it. Even Italy is starting to try to reopen what they can.

[UT_OB1 2,218]

We're about 30 days in to it in Italy after a couple of tourists brought it over.  They've tested 23k people, likely missed thousands at the beginning or those that "show[ed] few or no symptoms and were recovering at home" and still only have less than a 10% infection rate and 1% mortality rate.  

Link

Quote

 

The death toll from Italy’s coronavirus outbreak has risen to 52, an increase of 18 since Sunday, as the number of confirmed cases in Europe’s worst-hit country rose to 1,835.

The civil protection agency said 149 people had recovered from the virus, up by 66 since Sunday. The authorities said 742 people had been admitted to hospital, with 166 in intensive care. The vast majority of those infected had shown few or no symptoms and were recovering at home.

 

 

Then of course there is South Korea at 0.5% mortality rate after 40+ days of the virus.

Quote

As of 2 March 2020, South Korea has 4,335 cases, 26 deaths, with almost 100,000 people having been tested

I think we're going to make it

Edited March 2, 2020 by UT_OB1

[achooloco 1,067]

19 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I don't know what data we've seen makes us think things will be better by late April.   Even if weather slows the spread (still purely speculative as far as I know) I don't think we would see that impact until late May or June.

Oh, no Data. Just saying and hoping for the best. 
 

edit: just saw the post above mine with data. So here’s to hoping!

Edited March 2, 2020 by achooloco

[Fuck Tim Beck 3,815]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Have a cousin who's a Princeton PhD microbiologist -- this is exactly the shot she called.  We'll get it somewhat under control this spring, think the worst has passed over the summer, then get caught with our pants down in the fall.

To be fair, this could describe how we view Texas football as well. 

[closetojumping 62,604]

46 minutes ago, NoName said:

BECAUSE THE ELITES WILL SILENCE HIM IF HE MOVES TOO QUICKLY, DUH

 

I feel like there are very strong odds that this guy wears his keys by hanging them off of a belt loop. I bet he walks through his office to solve peoples’ IT hardware problems with a purposeful strut that Dwight Schrute would envy. 

[closetojumping 62,604]

dp

Edited March 2, 2020 by closetojumping
no clue why it dp'ed.

[Brisketexan 105,095]

Dude....he's preparing a PAMPHLET.  Modern day Thomas Paine, here -- this is serious shit.

[triplehorn 2,664]

7 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

We're about 30 days in to it in Italy after a couple of tourists brought it over.  They've tested 23k people, likely missed thousands at the beginning or those that "show[ed] few or no symptoms and were recovering at home" and still only have less than a 10% infection rate and 1% mortality rate.  

Link

 

Then of course there is South Korea at 0.5% mortality rate after 40+ days of the virus.

I think we're going to make it

Even subtracting out Wuhan numbers to date, the global CFR today is still 2.7% which is a very very dangerous rate IF millions get infected.  Supposedly the person to person transmissibility of this is greater than flu.  It's now at the community acquired phase across multiple time zones in the US.  I think it's still too early to tell.

Good source for real time data:  

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

 

[Bevo 13,576]

37 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, Jesus, man. You realize that photoshop was a joke to indicate that CS were leaders in being infected by it, right?

Yeah, I was just pointing out that UT has actually made a pretty important discovery towards the development of a treatment.

 

[XYZ 2,154]

4 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Supposedly the person to person transmissibility of this is greater than flu.

No shit, Sherlock.

[Bevo 13,576]

26 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Have a cousin who's a Princeton PhD microbiologist -- this is exactly the shot she called.  We'll get it somewhat under control this spring, think the worst has passed over the summer, then get caught with our pants down in the fall.

It depends on what your cousin is talking about. If we are talking the same virus infecting many of the people it missed the first round then that is certainly possible. But if we are talking about the virus mutating and reinfecting people, I have my doubts.  Even though this is an RNA virus, for various reasons this virus most likely will not mutate as rapidly as the flu.

[UT_OB1 2,218]

7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Even subtracting out Wuhan numbers to date, the global CFR today is still 2.7% which is a very very dangerous rate IF millions get infected.  Supposedly the person to person transmissibility of this is greater than flu.  It's now at the community acquired phase across multiple time zones in the US.  I think it's still too early to tell.

Good source for real time data:  

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

 

So you're telling me that the data out of Iran is good, and if it is, useful in the sense that our abilities and response would be similar?  Nope.  I'll go with Italy and SK being much better comparisons than China and Iran.  

[Trey3216 15,346]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude....he's preparing a PAMPHLET.  Modern day Thomas Paine, here -- this is serious shit.

Let's see if he starts an online conference after delivery.

 

"Know what the government isn't telling us about COVID-19?!?!  Join our teleconference on 3/3, and for the low price of $9.95, we'll tell you all you need to know to help your family survive!"  

 

Profit.  

[atomheartbevo 89,649]

41 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's worth remembering that in the 1918 flu pandemic, things did indeed calm down quite a bit during the warmer months only for the pandemic to return in greater numbers in the fall. Assuming this has the same general "shape" as that pandemic, we'll have a very unpleasant fall. And for more reasons than just the election happening

Thanks for reminding us about UT Football.   Or are you talking about Shaka still being on campus then?

[triplehorn 2,664]

5 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

So you're telling me that the data out of Iran is good, and if it is, useful in the sense that our abilities and response would be similar?  Nope.  I'll go with Italy and SK being much better comparisons than China and Iran.  

I'm erring that the bigger sample size is more accurately representative overall.  What you gain in identified similarity for comparison, you lose in statistical power by opting for a smaller data set.

Most everyone here gets it by  now - it would be good news to conclude that we've asleep at the wheel for 2 months on testing while a multitude of the US and world population has already been exposed without millions of dead.

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by triplehorn

[akhornfan 4]

14 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Even subtracting out Wuhan numbers to date, the global CFR today is still 2.7% which is a very very dangerous rate IF millions get infected.  Supposedly the person to person transmissibility of this is greater than flu.  It's now at the community acquired phase across multiple time zones in the US.  I think it's still too early to tell.

Good source for real time data:  

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

 

Except that we essentially know that that’s not the CFR so the IF is wrong. That’s something resembling the CFR on serious cases. 
The IF now is should we be focusing on containment or mitigation and what impact is worth what’s going to be a relatively low, but well publicized death count.