Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[atomheartbevo 89758]

34 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

The Nips came in to the market last night and did the Chinese a solid, but the only way this rally is holding is if there actually some grain of truth in the Wuhan death rate flattening off.

If the Wuhan numbers are actually matching reality, it’s only because the Chinese government quarantined 75 million people and built three dozen new hospitals in 6 weeks or so.   

We ain’t quarantining even 750,000 people.  

 

[atomheartbevo 89758]

Morocco has joined the club.   And Pence about to speak

 

[Brisketexan 105180]

11 minutes ago, Bevo said:

It depends on what your cousin is talking about. If we are talking the same virus infecting many of the people it missed the first round then that is certainly possible. But if we are talking about the virus mutating and reinfecting people, I have my doubts.  Even though this is an RNA virus, for various reasons this virus most likely will not mutate as rapidly as the flu.

She's talking about the first path.  Initial spread, semi-dormancy, then another round of rapid spread.

[triplehorn 2664]

4 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Except that we essentially know that that’s not the CFR so the IF is wrong. That’s something resembling the CFR on serious cases. 
The IF now is should we be focusing on containment or mitigation and what impact is worth what’s going to be a relatively low, but well publicized death count. 

The CFR will be less.  How much less is the question.  Statistically, we're stuck in between attempting a variation of containment vs conceding mitigation. As of today, it's too soon to know.  I can be persuaded otherwise.

[triplehorn 2664]

Was wondering about NoCal, where things had gone quiet for a few days

 

[4th&Five 41571]

How long are they going to update every new case?  We’ll be in the hundreds soon. 

[Brisketexan 105180]

7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

The CFR will be less.  How much less is the question.  Statistically, we're stuck in between attempting a variation of containment vs conceding mitigation. As of today, it's too soon to know.  I can be persuaded otherwise.

Excellent post.

I expect that we'll be conceding mitigation, BUT, I think we'll be reasonably successful at it (again, some places will be hit harder than others, just by nature of how local transmission works).

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[atomheartbevo 89758]

Pence saying vaccines possibly going to trials in next 6 weeks, maybe available later this year or next.   Therapeutics available by the summer.   They are increasing screening to 100% for all flights from all areas of Italy and South Korea by tomorrow morning.  

[akhornfan 4]

5 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

The CFR will be less.  How much less is the question.  Statistically, we're stuck in between attempting a variation of containment vs conceding mitigation. As of today, it's too soon to know.  I can be persuaded otherwise.

The CFR is less. We know that the denominator in the factor is understated and by a significant amount. 
What I keep repeating, is what’s the purpose of saying it IS 2.7% and that’s a big deal IF millions are infected, when you know that it’s just not 2.7%?

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Skipper 6162]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 Therapeutics available by the summer.   

Think this is the key. Whether we can find something that works.   Other than that tidbit this press conference has my eyes rolling much like Saturday's.

[NoName 16364]

USA map of outbreaks here (via NYT)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

 

Tweet:

 

[akhornfan 4]

8 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Mowing down/picking them off one by one is one of the dumber things I’ve read. 

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

Our family of 4 now has 5 single usen95 masks.  Bring on the bug. 

[triplehorn 2664]

4 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

The CFR is less. We know that the denominator in the factor is understated and by a significant amount. 
What I keep repeating, is what’s the purpose of saying it IS 2.7% and that’s a big deal IF millions are infected, when you know that it’s just not 2.7%?

In a comparison between influenza vs. corona, we're talking about orders of magnitude in lethality.  For every 1 million cases, given a 0.1% CFR (flu) vs.1% CFR, you get 9,000 more deaths.  For us to get from current estimates beyond 2% CFR down to 0.1-0.5 CFR, statistically we have a long way to go.

[RayDog 682]

My brother in law who teaches nursing sent out this link that conjunctivitis is one early symptom. I assume from when someone rubs it in their eyes.

https://www.aao.org/headline/alert-important-coronavirus-context

[Bevo 13590]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Think this is the key. Whether we can find something that works.   Other than that tidbit this press conference has my eyes rolling much like Saturday's.

I know Amgen could do it. They have a transgenic mouse that has a human immune system to make human monoclonal antibodies. It could create a panel of monoclonals to attack the spike protein. It is a fairly straightforward process. However, let us say that they find the antibodies by the end of the month. Then, they have to clone and culture. Then, it has to enter some sort of clinical trial which could be fast tracked. Then it has to scale up to meet demand.

[akhornfan 4]

1 minute ago, triplehorn said:

In a comparison between influenza vs. corona, we're talking about orders of magnitude in lethality.  For every 1 million cases, given a 0.1% CFR (flu) vs.1% CFR, you get 9,000 more deaths.  For us to get from current estimates beyond 2% CFR down to 0.1-0.5 CFR, statistically we have a long way to go.

We’re never going to know the CFR because they’re not going to test everyone. Just going to end up with a disputed estimate. 

[JesusSweatDuck 17784]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

I know Amgen could do it. They have a transgenic mouse that has a human immune system to make human monoclonal antibodies. It could create a panel of monoclonals to attack the spike protein. It is a fairly straightforward process. However, let us say that they find the antibodies by the end of the month. Then, they have to clone and culture. Then, it has to enter some sort of clinical trial which could be fast tracked. Then it has to scale up to meet demand.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

thanks for the map links above.

Hard to believe that NY is sitting on 1 total case. you would think any global disease wouldn't take long to go through NYC.

[triplehorn 2664]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Excellent post.

I expect that we'll be conceding mitigation, BUT, I think we'll be reasonably successful at it (again, some places will be hit harder than others, just by nature of how local transmission works).

Yes, I think that's right.  We have a varied landscape for population and behavior and densities across our country.  These factors are included in models to calculate R naught (R0) which is "how many people will one infected person infect".  We have population micro-environments that will likely respond to well thought out considerations.

Here's a CDC article on R naught: Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0)

[atomheartbevo 89758]

3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Think this is the key. Whether we can find something that works.   Other than that tidbit this press conference has my eyes rolling much like Saturday's.

Don’t think of it as them all having to praise Trump, think of it as them making sure that everybody knows who to blame. And praising the CDC now that we know about the testing fiasco is pretty hollow, and how many South Korea has tested while we are stumbling around stepping on our own feet   

And too much of the “you really don’t have much to worry about” crap.   We just saw China lock down over 70 million people and building dozens of new hospitals.   They didn’t do that for an illness that “you don’t have much to worry about”.    Shit, I’ve got half-a-dozen folks in my immediate family who are very high risk for this.   

[atomheartbevo 89758]

6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Our family of 4 now has 5 single usen95 masks.  Bring on the bug. 

Do you have goggles, gloves, suits, and a decontamination area?

[Skipper 6162]

Just now, akhornfan said:

We’re never going to know the CFR because they’re not going to test everyone. Just going to end up with a disputed estimate. 

Seriously.   This concept isn't that difficult.   South Korea may be the closest IMO given the massive (free) testing going on there.  If you are paying out of pocket here or it's in any way an inconvenience, most in the US aren't going to be tested.  And let's be clear without being political, listening to these press conference, nothing leads me to believe whatsoever that our government is going to take measures to test on a massive scale (I mean South Korea has free drive-through testing).  

[atomheartbevo 89758]

Oh for fucks sake, call it a fucking pandemic.  Don’t try to hide behind the WHO.   

[Skipper 6162]

Wow, a reporter actually asked a tough question (we haven't been testing, how can you say that the risk is low).

[atomheartbevo 89758]

7 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I know Amgen could do it. They have a transgenic mouse that has a human immune system to make human monoclonal antibodies. It could create a panel of monoclonals to attack the spike protein. It is a fairly straightforward process. However, let us say that they find the antibodies by the end of the month. Then, they have to clone and culture. Then, it has to enter some sort of clinical trial which could be fast tracked. Then it has to scale up to meet demand.

The presser this afternoon makes it sound like fast track is not a problem.     

[Okie State 3821]

Wow, a reporter actually asked a tough question (we haven't been testing, how can you say that the risk is low).

Interested in the answer to this.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

Wow, a reporter actually asked a tough question (we haven't been testing, how can you say that the risk is low).

Yeah, was surprised at that.   They are pushing the testing onto the universities and private companies, which is good.  But they keep tossing out massive numbers of tests they can do,  but they aren’t saying how many they can test a day.   

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

1 hour ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Metro Health officials began to retrace the woman’s steps and learned she had taken a hotel shuttle to North Star Mall, one of the city’s busiest retail centers, where she stayed from approximately 5:30 to 7:30 p.m. on Saturday. She spent much of that time alone at the food court, eating Chinese food.

Thank God my kid ate at Chick Fil A. It's all of two stalls down from the gross ass Chinese food place. Dodged a huge bullet.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

So Pence and Co. are going to give briefings every day from now on.  That’s a nice change.  But they need to drop the fawning all over each other and Trump.  Get out there and use that time for questions instead.   

[Skipper 6162]

1 minute ago, Okie State said:

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Wow, a reporter actually asked a tough question (we haven't been testing, how can you say that the risk is low).

Interested in the answer to this.

Same spin.   Overall the risk is low to any specific American is low (true) but left themselves with an out that it's a fluid situation, etc.    I think they are trying to kick the can as far as they can and then we'll see the focus be on upcoming therapies once we know it's everywhere.  I'm not completely opposed to the strategy.  At least this time Pence mentioned people should be washing hands.  

My big picture takeaway based on these first 2 press conference is we won't see anything resembling large scale quarantines or domestic travel shut down as some have predicted.   That's been my gut for a while (and again, we need to keep the economy moving so not sure I disagree).  But it's risky.  Definitely putting a lot of faith that the warm weather will slow this down in time for effective therapies to be developed.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

2 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Thank God my kid ate at Chick Fil A. It's all of two stalls down from the gross ass Chinese food place. Dodged a huge bullet.

But, which table did they eat at?

 

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Pence and Co. are going to give briefings every day from now on.  That’s a nice change.  But they need to drop the fawning all over each other and Trump.  Get out there and use that time for questions instead.   

You just can’t help yourself, can you?

[Bevo 13590]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The presser this afternoon makes it sound like fast track is not a problem.     

Yeah, the problem with biologicals will be the production. I'm not an expert in it but cell culture and purification under Good Manufacturing Processes is not easy. Small molecules would be much easier to scale up but would take a lot longer on the development and testing side.

[akhornfan 4]

I think they’re using risk in a pretty broad way.  More like the risk of real negative outcomes than the risk of infection. 
I don’t think they’re just counting on vaccines or warm weather, but also weighing risk/reward of containment measures. But that’s something they can’t just say, but behind closed doors you know that the conversation is essentially ‘what economic impact vs how many deaths’. 

[Dahobbs 17627]

1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Then of course there is South Korea at 0.5% mortality rate after 40+ days of the virus.

I think we're going to make it

Uh, I don't really think we should be celebrating that number.. it is a 5x higher mortality rate than the flu. That is still really bad and would overwhelm our healthcare system in the short term. Also, that is happening in a country that is very aggressively trying to track, treat, and isolate the infection. We aren't doing that. 

Edited March 2, 2020 by Dahobbs

[SizzleChest 8284]

1 minute ago, akhornfan said:

I think they’re using risk in a pretty broad way.  More like the risk of real negative outcomes than the risk of infection. 
I don’t think they’re just counting on vaccines or warm weather, but also weighing risk/reward of containment measures. But that’s something they can’t just say, but behind closed doors you know that the conversation is essentially ‘what economic impact vs how many deaths’. 

They are being purposefully vague in defining risk, but Azar did say that today the risk of Americans being impacted clinically by the virus is low.  He stated that could completely change by tomorrow.

[Hagbard Celine 10897]

16 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Same spin.   Overall the risk is low to any specific American is low (true) but left themselves with an out that it's a fluid situation, etc.    I think they are trying to kick the can as far as they can and then we'll see the focus be on upcoming therapies once we know it's everywhere.  I'm not completely opposed to the strategy.  At least this time Pence mentioned people should be washing hands.  

My big picture takeaway based on these first 2 press conference is we won't see anything resembling large scale quarantines or domestic travel shut down as some have predicted.   That's been my gut for a while (and again, we need to keep the economy moving so not sure I disagree).  But it's risky.  Definitely putting a lot of faith that the warm weather will slow this down in time for effective therapies to be developed.

If Pence is the flu Czar, then why haven't we declared the War on Flu?  At least it's a tangible thing.  It's not an adjective.

Or, maybe, this is all window dressing because you and your families' lives are not a matter of NATIONAL SECURITY.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

5 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

But, which table did they eat at?

You just can’t help yourself, can you?

I had to deal with this kind of shit in a corporate setting for a long time, and it was fucking annoying and a waste of time then, and it’s the same now, only worse because I’m older.    Also, I went through my share of hurricane prep and watching press conferences about said hurricanes, back when internet access was non-existent or limited to the public, and so you had to watch TV or listen to the radio  to get actual updates    

Nobody else gives a shit when you heap praises on your boss, and nobody gives a shit how long they’ve all known each other.   

Granted, I’ve missed a conference or two, but so far I’ve heard them talk more about how much they respect each other than about the fiasco behind the CDC testing, and what they are going to do to actually increase testing.  

Telling us you can test a million people doesn’t mean shit if you’re not even testing a few thousand everyday.  

[staboner 4984]

whats going on friends? i've been picking my nose lots lately. trying to get the batguano out. we all gone live or what?

[Eastwood 4394]

"I've been cooped up all day, I should go to the mall" is definitely a boomer move. What is this, 1992?

[InkaUtexas 26018]

1 minute ago, Eastwood said:

"I've been cooped up all day, I should go to the mall" is definitely a boomer move. What is this, 1992?

And to eat Chinese food. Mall chinese food. 

[atomheartbevo 89758]

Just now, Eastwood said:

"I've been cooped up all day, I should go to the mall" is definitely a boomer move. What is this, 1992?

And eat Chinese food at the fucking mall.   I bet it was Panda Express or something like that.    Or it has “wok” in the title.   If you’ve been isolated for weeks, and want Chinese food, go find a real Chinese restaurant.  

[Goredho 17413]

My company just sent out an email strongly encouraging anyone with symptoms of respiratory illness to work from home indefinitely.

[Captainant 27690]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

And eat Chinese food at the fucking mall.   I bet it was Panda Express or something like that.    Or it has “wok” in the title.   If you’ve been isolated for weeks, and want Chinese food, go find a real Chinese restaurant.  

Man that bourbon chicken is so good after having a day to age in the heating tray though

[Dbeasy 15075]

My company just sent out an email strongly encouraging anyone with symptoms of respiratory illness to work from home indefinitely.

We just sent out a note to our employees saying the same thing, and telling them they don’t have to travel for business if they are uncomfortable.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

12 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

They are being purposefully vague in defining risk, but Azar did say that today the risk of Americans being impacted clinically by the virus is low.  He stated that could completely change by tomorrow.

And there is the problem.  They could assess the risk much better if they rolled out the million tests they claimed to have ready or whatever.   Even just hitting all of the folks In their surveillance clusters or whatever.    But if they do mass testing, and it shows some of those communities that have clearly had it a long time with large numbers, it will freak a lot of people out.   

[Deej 76859]

SXSW officials say they will not be cancelling. Can't wait for the fallout if the virus explodes here shortly after. Even if it has nothing to do with it and would happen anyway, the PR should be a nightmare. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If you’ve been isolated for weeks, and want Chinese food, go find a real Chinese restaurant.

In this case, I’d avoid any thing remotely related to the Chinese.