Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Bert Orange 1120]

Ebolaronasars is going to be epic next year.

[NoName 16364]

No updates on the Tarrant County cases that were mentioned yesterday...literally the only thing i even see on twitter is this guy

 

 

[triplehorn 2664]

China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.“It’s all about speed”: the most important lessons from China’s Covid-19 response.

^^^ interesting interview that offers some new understanding with some clear windows of opportunity.  China’s response has been very impressive in many ways, but some characteristics of covid-19 help.

“...You look at the big, long lists of all the cases and identify those where you have clusterings in space and time and try to investigate what kind of clustering happened: Was it in a hospital, an old-age home, theaters, restaurants? We found it was predominantly in families. It’s not a big surprise; China had shut down a lot of the other ways people could gather. And family clusters are the closest, longest exposures [to the virus], and getting the virus is a function of whether someone’s got it, how long they’re exposed, and how much virus they are shedding.

More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.”

cont.

 

 

[NoName 16364]

I think Texas Tribune is going to keep updating this re: cases in Texas

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/02/coronavirus-texas-cases-latest-updates-san-antonio/

 

 

Quote

 

How many people in Texas have coronavirus?

There have been 11 confirmed cases of coronavirus, or COVID-19, in Texas, as of Monday. All of those were instances of people who got the disease overseas and then were brought to the San Antonio Lackland Air Force Base for quarantine.

Patients at the base confirmed or suspected of being infected with the new coronavirus were transferred from quarantine to the Texas Center for Infectious Disease or local hospitals to receive medical care in isolation, according to the San Antonio Express-News.

 

 

[Somnio 751]

The amount of sunshine pumping going on in here is impressive.

I gotta say I'm a little jealous of the optimism.

Just a reminder though, there's a huge fucking gulf between "doomsday" and "it's no worse than the flu".

Hopefully the blowhard A. Jones is full of shit like he mostly always is, but 1 million dead is not "doomsday".

Is it really that hard to imagine 100 million in the US catching this virus?

Is 1% mortality rate just too ridiculous to comprehend?

I'm keenly aware, and hopeful it may not end up that bad just like everyone else in this thread.  But just because some people choose to look at this without the rosiest of glasses on does not make them a doomsdayer expecting this to be the fucking apocolypse.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Somnio

[Somnio 751]

21 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.“It’s all about speed”: the most important lessons from China’s Covid-19 response.

^^^ interesting interview that offers some new understanding with some clear windows of opportunity.  China’s response has been very impressive in many ways, but some characteristics of covid-19 help.

“...You look at the big, long lists of all the cases and identify those where you have clusterings in space and time and try to investigate what kind of clustering happened: Was it in a hospital, an old-age home, theaters, restaurants? We found it was predominantly in families. It’s not a big surprise; China had shut down a lot of the other ways people could gather. And family clusters are the closest, longest exposures [to the virus], and getting the virus is a function of whether someone’s got it, how long they’re exposed, and how much virus they are shedding.

More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.”

cont.

 

 

Well, that is some great news.  Then again didn't they quarantine like 700 million people?

Edited March 3, 2020 by Somnio

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

Hopefully we can find and follow methods to reduce the spread of covid19.  I am skeptical that many Americans will put up with inconveniences. 

[HornOnTheBayou 8942]

26 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Ebolaronasars is going to be epic next year.

Hopefully they take off and do well. But I know they were planning on playing a couple of shows at SXSW and were hoping to catch the eye of some of the major labels, but that's in jeopardy now.

Edited March 3, 2020 by HornOnTheBayou

[closetojumping 62765]

5 minutes ago, Somnio said:

The amount of sunshine pumping going on in here is impressive.

I gotta say I'm a little jealous of the optimism.

Just a reminder though, there's a huge fucking gulf between "doomsday" and "it's no worse than the flu".

Hopefully the blowhard A. Jones is full of shit like he mostly always is, but 1 million dead is not "doomsday".

Is it really that hard to imagine 100 million in the US catching this virus?

Is 1% mortality rate just too ridiculous to comprehend?

I'm keenly aware, and hopeful it's nowhere near that bad just like everyone else in this thread.  But just because some people choose to look at this without the rosiest of glasses on does not make them a doomsdayer expecting this to be the fucking apocolypse.

Listen, I’ve really enjoyed this thread and you’ve been a highlight, but I’ll be sober for a minute. Yes, it is really fucking hard to imagine roughly 30% of the population being infected with this bug shortly. That doesn’t happen with entrenched bugs that circulate yearly. Then beyond that, yes, it’s hard to imagine that 1% is the mortality rate. 

Just go ahead and admit that you were hoping this thing was Captain Trips and you’re going to be disappointed if that doesn’t come to fruition. 

Reading some of y’all’s bullshit on this thread is like reading posts ahead of major hurricanes landing. There’s always a faction that secretly wants to see the carnage, talks their way around that fact by disclaiming that they don’t want to see the horror, that they’re not with the crazies, but they really are amazed that the mainstream media and public “just don’t see it coming”. Go ahead and put the tinfoil hat on and let your doomsday flag fly. You’re not fooling anyone, so you might as well own it. 

[4th&Five 41571]

Thread (siap)

 

[triplehorn 2664]

Another notable excerpt from the article I linked above:

Quote

If you didn’t find the “iceberg” of mild cases in China, what does it say about how deadly the virus is — the case fatality rate?

Bruce Aylward

It says you’re probably not way off. The average case fatality rate is 3.8 percent in China, but a lot of that is driven by the early epidemic in Wuhan where numbers were higher. If you look outside of Hubei province [where Wuhan is], the case fatality rate is just under 1 percent now. I would not quote that as the number. That’s the mortality in China — and they find cases fast, get them isolated, in treatment, and supported early. Second thing they do is ventilate dozens in the average hospital; they use extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells] when ventilation doesn’t work. This is sophisticated health care. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

This suggests the Chinese are really good at keeping people alive with this disease, and just because it’s 1 percent in the general population outside of Wuhan doesn’t mean it [will be the same in other countries].

And this one VVVV

Quote

 

That’s really concerning for the rest of the world. Are you suggesting this is the big one — the once-a-century pandemic people have been bracing for?

Bruce Aylward

It’s not. It can be the big one but like, for flu — whether you have a pandemic with flu, it’s a function of the virus. That’s a virus with a very, very high infectivity rate, a very, very high transmissibility rate. The time [the virus] takes to go from [one person to the next] can be as short as 1.5 days. For Covid-19, it’s longer — four to five days. Look around the world. We’re seeing a whole bunch of outbreaks controlled with the right responses, and even turned around if they get to a bad state.

Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working.

 

 

[Hate 20128]

Hopefully we can find and follow methods to reduce the spread of covid19.  I am skeptical that many Americans will put up with inconveniences. 

Haven’t the recent cancelations of large events and the anecdotal evidence from posters here about working from home or remotely prove that Americans will and already have begun to put up with the inconveniences this pandemic has required?

[G650 14271]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

 

Haven’t the recent cancelations of large events and the anecdotal evidence from posters here about working from home or remotely prove that Americans will and already have begun to put up with the inconveniences this pandemic has required?

 

No

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

7 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Thread (siap)

 

Username checks out.

Also, Coronavirus might not be his/her biggest problem at the moment. 

Also, Seattle. 

 

[triplehorn 2664]

7 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Thread (siap)

 

Holy shit.  You read that article just above about the Chinese management - the speed and organization - and you read that lady's thread and all you can think is how far behind we are.  The worst outcome is clearly avoidable.

[NoName 16364]

well...ok then

https://www.fox4news.com/news/5-dallas-officers-returning-to-work-after-coronavirus-scare

Quote

 

Five Dallas police officers are expected to be back at work Tuesday after arresting a man who claimed to have the coronavirus. It appears to be a scare over nothing.

The officers were sent home Monday because a suspect they interacted with on Sunday told staff members at the county jail that he had been on an international flight and was feeling sick, potentially because of the coronavirus.

But the head of the Dallas Police Association believes it was just a failed attempt to avoid going to jail. The suspect was taken to Parkland Hospital for detailed screening and reportedly isn’t showing any signs or symptoms of the virus.

 

 

[B00M 6431]

11 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Thread (siap)

 

That's an excellent way to keep covid at bay... Time to buy stocks!

[Deej 76858]

7 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Username checks out.

Also, Coronavirus might not be his/her biggest problem at the moment. 

Also, Seattle. 

 

She seems like Seattle's version of the disaster scientist. 

[Doc Reeves 6434]

WA public healthcare system is not great to say the least. The state has gone thru some serious financial issues in the last 15 years. This thing could get ugly very quickly up there.  
 

here in SA they are closing Northstar Mall (north central) because that where the catch and release quarantine patient went briefly.

that mall still does very robust business and on Sunday there was traffic congestion on 410 from the numbers of people going. Most people here have a ‘eye roll’ attitude when it comes to this thing. 

[BrazilHorn 6624]

Facebook just announced it is pulling out of SXSW

[atomheartbevo 89757]

3 hours ago, mulletpelini said:

Woke up, couldn't sleep.  Turned TV on, Alex Jones saying sources he has telling him 1% (3mil) in US dead in 6 months

Even if this crazy fucker is 99% wrong, that's still 33k dead

Been waiting for him to turn.   Some folks in that community have been claiming that he wasn’t covering it hard enough because it made people that he had ties to look bad.   

He should have been flipping out that the CDC stopped posting how many people they were actually testing.   That plays right into conspiracy stuff.  

[atomheartbevo 89757]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

I was reading my response to you earlier and I forgot perhaps the biggest issue with using monoclonal antibodies against infectious disease, cost. Nobody is going to pay thousands for a drug against most infectious diseases. And a drug for this pandemic would almost need to be given away. With that said, there are probably only a few quick paths to developing a drug for COVID-19 assuming there isn't something already developed that can be repurposed.

It’s an election year.  Politicians on both sides would be tripping over themselves to sign off on fed dollars being spent on drugs for this virus.   Government contracts can be quite lucrative.  

[NoName 16364]

Foxconn Update

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-foxconn/foxconn-to-resume-normal-production-in-virus-hit-china-by-end-of-march-idUSKBN20Q0O3

Quote

 

- Apple supplier Foxconn said it would resume normal production in China by the end of the month and that more than half its seasonal workforce in the country had restarted work following the coronavirus outbreak.

The Taiwanese firm, which assembles Apple’s (AAPL.O) iPhones, however, said it was unable to predict the virus’ actual impact on its full-year results.

“Prevention of outbreak, resumption of work and production are our top priority,” Chairman Liu Young-Way told an online investor conference on Tuesday.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89757]

23 minutes ago, Hate said:

Haven’t the recent cancelations of large events and the anecdotal evidence from posters here about working from home or remotely prove that Americans will and already have begun to put up with the inconveniences this pandemic has required?

 

It just proves that many Americans hate going to large events, and hate their coworkers and/or want to sit at home in their underwear.   

[triplehorn 2664]

"The time [the virus] takes to go from [one person to the next] can be as short as 1.5 days. For Covid-19, it’s longer — four to five days."

Aggressive testing followed by tracing contacts is what separates this from influenza.  That 4-5 days to go from on person to the other is the key.  With influenza, 1.5 days to transmission is too short a window.  It can be turned around, but we're screwing the pooch on a national scale right now.   

[SizzleChest 8284]

3 hours ago, mulletpelini said:

Woke up, couldn't sleep.  Turned TV on, Alex Jones saying sources he has telling him 1% (3mil) in US dead in 6 months

Even if this crazy fucker is 99% wrong, that's still 33k dead

Is he counting himself?

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

9 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Facebook just pulled out of SXSW

 

7 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Facebook just announced it is pulling out of SXSW

Again? I admire their birth control method but why do they keep fucking SXSW?

[BrazilHorn 6624]

Just now, Casual Encounter said:

 

Again? I admire their birth control method but why do they keep fucking SXSW?

oops didn't see the other post. Hopefully lots more companies etc will pull out in a massive rhythm method effect.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Been waiting for him to turn.   Some folks in that community have been claiming that he wasn’t covering it hard enough because it made people that he had ties to look bad.   

He should have been flipping out that the CDC stopped posting how many people they were actually testing.   That plays right into conspiracy stuff.  

All the rich conspiracy theorists are phonies. They only support theories that favor the conservative narrative and ignore the rest.

Art Bell actually saw this coming a long time ago. He was probably the last conspiracy theory pusher that was open to all types. There is nobody like Art Bell out there anymore. 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

"The time [the virus] takes to go from [one person to the next] can be as short as 1.5 days. For Covid-19, it’s longer — four to five days."

Aggressive testing followed by tracing contacts is what separates this from influenza.  That 4-5 days to go from on person to the other is the key.

Unless they’re wrong. Or if they’re right about this but also right that you can be totally asymptomatic for more than that 4-5 days but still spread it. 
 

What makes this topic run the news cycle is the lack of consistency in the reports and the lack of consensus in the “expert” community about how this thing behaves. Not surprising given it’s 3 months old, but if there were a clear and accepted understanding of how this works and what to do we wouldn’t all be talking about it. All we have right now is “wash your hands” and “avoid sick people.” That, while not bad advice, rings as generic and hollow to most people.  

[Deej 76858]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It just proves that many Americans hate going to large events, and hate their coworkers and/or want to sit at home in their underwear.   

Guilty.

[Anastasis 23480]

Just got the travel directive from the mothership. All international business travel is terminated immediately, all non-essential domestic travel including conferences cancelled, all "essential" domestic travel should be moved to webex if possible, don't schedule any new F2F meetings.  

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

25 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

"The time [the virus] takes to go from [one person to the next] can be as short as 1.5 days. For Covid-19, it’s longer — four to five days."

Aggressive testing followed by tracing contacts is what separates this from influenza.  That 4-5 days to go from on person to the other is the key.  With influenza, 1.5 days to transmission is too short a window.  It can be turned around, but we're screwing the pooch on a national scale right now.   

That makes some sense, though. Not to sound morbid but viruses are always looking for that sweet spot and if it isn't working, they are mutating until the next place to party comes along. Ebola while deadly, it not a great virus from a virus' perspective.

[atomheartbevo 89757]

13 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

All the rich conspiracy theorists are phonies. They only support theories that favor the conservative narrative and ignore the rest.

Art Bell actually saw this coming a long time ago. He was probably the last conspiracy theory pusher that was open to all types. There is nobody like Art Bell out there anymore. 

Yeah, miss Art Bell.  

I don’t know how rich Alex Jones is these days - between his losing the Sandy Hook lawsuits, and his ex-wife cleaning him out, he’s got to be hurting.  Yeah, he was bringing in $20 million or so and had 75 employees, but that was several years ago    He had to sell his fancy West Austin house.

[closetojumping 62765]

14 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Just got the travel directive from the mothership. All international business travel is terminated immediately, all non-essential domestic travel including conferences cancelled, all "essential" domestic travel should be moved to webex if possible, don't schedule any new F2F meetings.  

I have to tell you, it’s looking more and more like the airfares and hotel rates are going to have to start dropping, and not by a little. I’ve told my wife we should start thinking about multiple long weekend trips and scout rates accordingly. Maybe I’m off on the yield management inner workings for the travel industry, but it seems like so many cancellations and lightening of business travel would lead to bargains. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21207]

19 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Just got the travel directive from the mothership. All international business travel is terminated immediately, all non-essential domestic travel including conferences cancelled, all "essential" domestic travel should be moved to webex if possible, don't schedule any new F2F meetings.  

Our company has banned international travel but not domestic.  Not really sure of the point 

[Loco 3753]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

I have to tell you, it’s looking more and more like the airfares and hotel rates are going to have to start dropping, and not by a little. I’ve told my wife we should start thinking about multiple long weekend trips and scout rates accordingly. Maybe I’m off on the yield management inner workings for the travel industry, but it seems like so many cancellations and lightening of business travel would lead to bargains. 

More like cancellations.  Hotels can't change room/nights... but airlines will ground planes & car rental will dispose of fleet

[akhornfan 4]

42 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

"The time [the virus] takes to go from [one person to the next] can be as short as 1.5 days. For Covid-19, it’s longer — four to five days."

Aggressive testing followed by tracing contacts is what separates this from influenza.  That 4-5 days to go from on person to the other is the key.  With influenza, 1.5 days to transmission is too short a window.  It can be turned around, but we're screwing the pooch on a national scale right now.   

You keep pushing the ‘this is a disaster’ angle despite the growing evidence to the contrary. So call your shot here. . . what do you think is going to happen?

[atomheartbevo 89757]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Listen, I’ve really enjoyed this thread and you’ve been a highlight, but I’ll be sober for a minute. Yes, it is really fucking hard to imagine roughly 30% of the population being infected with this bug shortly. That doesn’t happen with entrenched bugs that circulate yearly. Then beyond that, yes, it’s hard to imagine that 1% is the mortality rate. 

Just go ahead and admit that you were hoping this thing was Captain Trips and you’re going to be disappointed if that doesn’t come to fruition. 

Reading some of y’all’s bullshit on this thread is like reading posts ahead of major hurricanes landing. There’s always a faction that secretly wants to see the carnage, talks their way around that fact by disclaiming that they don’t want to see the horror, that they’re not with the crazies, but they really are amazed that the mainstream media and public “just don’t see it coming”. Go ahead and put the tinfoil hat on and let your doomsday flag fly. You’re not fooling anyone, so you might as well own it. 

All of us would be thrilled if this thing petered out, but most of us have elderly relatives such as parents, aunts, uncles, grandparents, or elderly kids in the case of armybrat.   

China didn’t lock down 70+ million people, jail doctors who spoke up, temporarily shutter a huge part of their economy, and build dozens of new hospitals just for shits and giggles and the common cold or flu.   

The fact that they’d put their economy on hold, knowing there was a chance it could push companies into moving production outside of China alone, has huge implications.   

[akhornfan 4]

They didn’t know what we know now. 

[Pokoloco 1281]

I'm travelling this week, anyone I see wearing a mask is getting a punch in the dick.

[Francisco 2.0 32395]

51 minutes ago, NoName said:

Foxconn Update

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-foxconn/foxconn-to-resume-normal-production-in-virus-hit-china-by-end-of-march-idUSKBN20Q0O3

 

Sort of related.

Late January, I ordered 120 engraved iPads from Apple.  I've done this for several years now, and usually, the turnaround on engraved iPads is 5 days or so.

It's March 3, and I've still not received notification from Apple that they have shipped.

[gyroprotagonist 2594]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

All of us would be thrilled if this thing petered out, but most of us have elderly relatives such as parents, aunts, uncles, grandparents, or elderly kids in the case of armybrat.   

China didn’t lock down 70+ million people, jail doctors who spoke up, temporarily shutter a huge part of their economy, and build dozens of new hospitals just for shits and giggles and the common cold or flu.   

The fact that they’d put their economy on hold, knowing there was a chance it could push companies into moving production outside of China alone, has huge implications.   

That or it would be a bad look to release this from their disease lab and then shrug. [/tinfoilhat]

But I think once they knew how bad it would it be, the calculus said to do all this lock down, weld people in their homes, and fast track all the hospitals they could now or it would be an even bigger impact on their economy vs screaming 'all is well' as long as they could.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5797]

41 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

All the rich conspiracy theorists are phonies. They only support theories that favor the conservative narrative and ignore the rest.

Art Bell actually saw this coming a long time ago. He was probably the last conspiracy theory pusher that was open to all types. There is nobody like Art Bell out there anymore. 

 

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, miss Art Bell.  

I don’t know how rich Alex Jones is these days - between his losing the Sandy Hook lawsuits, and his ex-wife cleaning him out, he’s got to be hurting.  Yeah, he was bringing in $20 million or so and had 75 employees, but that was several years ago    He had to sell his fancy West Austin house.

George Noory still going in place of Bell? 

[closetojumping 62765]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

All of us would be thrilled if this thing petered out, but most of us have elderly relatives such as parents, aunts, uncles, grandparents, or elderly kids in the case of armybrat.   

China didn’t lock down 70+ million people, jail doctors who spoke up, temporarily shutter a huge part of their economy, and build dozens of new hospitals just for shits and giggles and the common cold or flu.   

The fact that they’d put their economy on hold, knowing there was a chance it could push companies into moving production outside of China alone, has huge implications.   

Oh, I get it. We’re here, we’re fear, get used to it!

I’ve seen this take on roughly every other page of this thread. 

[akhornfan 4]

And now make the claim that you’re heartless if you’re willing to accept that there may well be a few thousand deaths domestically, but you can’t shut down life over that. 

[Wally Fairway 5571]

Here is my do-it-yourself help kit for today

 

[Hanrahan 1306]

Remember a few years ago when there was a super scary thread on the ebola outbreak and we were all going to die?  Same thing.

[triplehorn 2664]

16 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

You keep pushing the ‘this is a disaster’ angle despite the growing evidence to the contrary. So call your shot here. . . what do you think is going to happen?

Get a grip.  The quote you're responding to doesn't push 'this is a disaster'.  There is an important role for aggressive testing and contact tracing for this bug more so than influenza.  It's spans both containment and mitigation.  We're screwing the pooch in not having a coherent and robust plan in place to do this.  To the extent we don't, the outcome will be worse.  How much worse, I have no idea.  But you don't just fumble away and forfeit things you can control.  We're fumbling.  No CR, but there are reasons.

[akhornfan 4]

Nice try. What’s going to happen?