Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Someone yesterday told my wife that Asians are leaving China/Korea/Japan for Germany, then flying to Orlando from Germany to stay at Disney properties and vacation to get away from the virus. 
so she of course told me. Not a bad plan really, if it’s being used. I can picture a travel agent making hay with such a pitch. 

We were going to go to DisneyW a day after Easter. Probably gonna have to move our dates now. Orlando has to be a walking cesscoronaviruspool by now

[0xdeadbeef 1649]

12 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

I’m making my guess. Feel free to make your own. 
 

it’s very easy to say what could happen. I’m not arguing that, but it doesn’t look to me like enough people will get infected and enough of those leading to cause the sort of catastrophic scenarios being thrown out there 

Please Stand By.

 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

3 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

I’m making my guess. Feel free to make your own. 
 

it’s very easy to say what could happen. I’m not arguing that, but it doesn’t look to me like enough people will get infected and enough of those leading to cause the sort of catastrophic scenarios being thrown out there 

I hope you're right, but I think it's too early to tell. If there's a chance to lessen the transmission or spread it out over a couple of months we should be doing all that we can to mitigate the threat imo. 

This reminds me of a hurricane. We saw it coming weeks ago and didn't do much if anything to prepare. Now the winds are picking up and we are sitting here without even beer for a hurricane party. Maybe this is Rita, maybe Katrina, maybe Galveston 1900 who knows? Mother Nature can be a bitch every now and then.

[G650 14252]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So, more people will get it - maybe twice as many will get it.

This is the part I am most skeptical about. If we just did our usual, then yeah, no doubt. But everyone is a fucking epidemiologist now, we've managed to clean Amazon of all places out of Purell. The upside is this probably slows flu transmission down to a crawl for the rest of the year too.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

This is the part I am most skeptical about. If we just did our usual, then yeah, no doubt. But everyone is a fucking epidemiologist now, we've managed to clean Amazon of all places out of Purell. The upside is this probably slows flu transmission down to a crawl for the rest of the year too.

Then the .02% of virus that survived the Purell will turn into a superbug and kill us all. 

[InkaUtexas 25911]

or mutate it into something new. 

[InkaUtexas 25911]

Health care/Rescue peeps. FYI. 

We are pleased to announce that the online course “COVID-19: Operational Planning Guidelines and COVID-19 Partners Platform to support country preparedness and response” is now available on OpenWHO. You can access the course through the following link: https://openwho.org/courses/UNCT-COVID19-preparedness-and-response-EN

In order to assist UN country teams in scaling up country preparedness and response to COVID-19, WHO has developed these learning modules as a companion to the Operational Planning Guidelines to Support Country Preparedness and Response.

[Bevo 13576]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

This is the part I am most skeptical about. If we just did our usual, then yeah, no doubt. But everyone is a fucking epidemiologist now, we've managed to clean Amazon of all places out of Purell. The upside is this probably slows flu transmission down to a crawl for the rest of the year too.

That won't matter. The virus stays on surfaces for up to a week compared to the flu which stays on hard surfaces for a couple of days. The coronavirus also lasts longer on the skin. Watch peoples habits. Touching the face, the keyboard, doorknobs... Buying Purell only works to the extent that it is used properly and other bad habits are abated.

[Trey3216 15346]

9 minutes ago, G650 said:

This is the part I am most skeptical about. If we just did our usual, then yeah, no doubt. But everyone is a fucking epidemiologist now, we've managed to clean Amazon of all places out of Purell. The upside is this probably slows flu transmission down to a crawl for the rest of the year too.

I doubt we cleaned Amazon of Purell.  I bet the CDC and DHS politely 'requested' they mark Purell out of stock.  

[G650 14252]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

That won't matter. The virus stays on surfaces for up to a week compared to the flu which stays on hard surfaces for a couple of days. The coronavirus also lasts longer on the skin. Watch peoples habits. Touching the face, the keyboard, doorknobs... Buying Purell only works to the extent that it is used properly and other bad habits are abated.

Oh I know. I touch my face a million times a day. I'm saying whatever the unchecked proliferation would be is not what the reality is going to be because we are so much more vigilant now than we would be with the flu, so it's not so easy to extrapolate. I've personally got sanitizing wipes and I'm not touching public door handles or anything else for that matter without them.

The other side is we as a country have totally stepped on our dicks as far as testing and response, so it's not going to be as low a number as it could have been either.

[InkaUtexas 25911]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I doubt we cleaned Amazon of Purell.  I bet the CDC and DHS politely 'requested' they mark Purell out of stock.  

quoted earlier about the run on USG contracts being announced for things like purely, and even respirator use training for the VA Caribbean region. 

[achooloco 1067]

1 hour ago, Bevo Num1 said:

I think it's safe to say that the world was woefully underprepared for this kind of shit.

It seems like the need to contain panic is greater than the need to contain the virus. Fucking crazy.

Remarkable post considering the one two above yours. 

[BLKNSTY 289]

14 other cases in King County alone, already reported earlier by Public Health, include:

• A male in his 50s, hospitalized at Highline Hospital. No known exposures. He is in stable but critical condition. He had no underlying health conditions.
• A male in his 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
• A female in her 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
• A female in her 80s, a resident of LifeCare, was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth. She is in critical condition
• A female in her 80s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. This person died on 3/1/20.
• A female in her 90s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman has underlying health conditions, and is in critical condition
• A male in his 70s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man has underlying health conditions, and is in critical condition
• A male in his 70s was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth. He had underlying health conditions and died on 2/29/20.
• A man in his 60s, hospitalized at Valley Medical Center in Renton.
• A man in 60s, hospitalized at Virginia Mason Medical Center.
• A woman in her 50s, who had traveled to South Korea; recovering at home
• A woman in her 70s, who was a resident of LifeCare in Kirkland, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth and died on 3/2/20
• A woman in her 40s, employed by LifeCare, who is hospitalized at Overlake Medical Center
• A man in his 50s, who was hospitalized and died 2/28/20 at EvergreenHealth

“This is a very fluid, fast-moving situation as we aggressively respond to this outbreak,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, Health Officer for Public Health – Seattle & King County. “People with suspected or confirmed exposure to COVID-19 should reach out to their healthcare provider. As public health professionals we really appreciate clinicians on the front lines of patient care and they are critical to this response.”

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/7th-coronavirus-death-reported-in-puget-sound-region

[Hate 20108]

I hope you're right, but I think it's too early to tell. If there's a chance to lessen the transmission or spread it out over a couple of months we should be doing all that we can to mitigate the threat imo. 
This reminds me of a hurricane. We saw it coming weeks ago and didn't do much if anything to prepare. Now the winds are picking up and we are sitting here without even beer for a hurricane party. Maybe this is Rita, maybe Katrina, maybe Galveston 1900 who knows? Mother Nature can be a bitch every now and then.

Well, I did my part by going to the liquor store yesterday. I bought 2 big bottle of whiskey. I don’t know what I’ll do if this things lasts longer than a couple of weeks though.

[InkaUtexas 25911]

Just now, Hate said:

 

Well, I did my part by going to the liquor store yesterday. I bought 2 big bottle of whiskey. I don’t know what I’ll do if this things lasts longer than a couple of weeks though.

 

you risk going back for more. I mean it is medicinal. 

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

14 minutes ago, G650 said:

This is the part I am most skeptical about. If we just did our usual, then yeah, no doubt. But everyone is a fucking epidemiologist now, we've managed to clean Amazon of all places out of Purell. The upside is this probably slows flu transmission down to a crawl for the rest of the year too.

So the lady in California that was the first case of community transmitted COVID19 in the states - she was on droplet precautions before they suspected COVID19.  This means mask and eye PPE, increased hand washing frequency, etc.  Even with those precautions, multiple health care workers who treated her have since tested positive.  The public may think they have a handle on how to prevent the spread of this, but in reality, we don't have the equipment or the knowledge to prevent this from spreading.  This is just the tip of a shitty iceberg as far as I'm concerned.

[G650 14252]

2 minutes ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

So the lady in California that was the first case of community transmitted COVID19 in the states - she was on droplet precautions before they suspected COVID19.  This means mask and eye PPE, increased hand washing frequency, etc.  Even with those precautions, multiple health care workers who treated her have since tested positive.  The public may think they have a handle on how to prevent the spread of this, but in reality, we don't have the equipment or the knowledge to prevent this from spreading.  This is just the tip of a shitty iceberg as far as I'm concerned.

I'm pretty sure no one is saying we are keeping it from spreading.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

I'm pretty sure no one is saying we are keeping it from spreading.

Trump Econ Adviser Larry Kudlow said  "I won't say airtight, but pretty close to airtight."

[Bozo_Casanova 26444]

Everybody freak out

 

[G650 14252]

Just now, Liquor and Poker said:

Trump Econ Adviser Larry Kudlow said  "I won't say airtight, but pretty close to airtight."

I mean, non ridiculous people.

[G650 14252]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Everybody freak out

 

[BLKNSTY 289]

49 minutes ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

my wife had pneumonia in both her lungs on NYE.  

I really need to roll out my dating app for widows.

[DaysOff 7947]

Just got a notice from my kid's high school. Due to a teacher shopping at North Star mall this weekend the school will be undergoing a deep clean. I don't know what that means but it's a cleaning that is deep.

Got that email too. They questioned the teacher and let her return to class. I assume she was at the mall before the infected. Right?

[hundredTT 578]

10 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Everybody freak out

 

 

 

[Goredho 17399]

14 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Everybody freak out

 

But after SXSW, all fucking bets are off, vermin!

[F250 28768]

15 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Got that email too. They questioned the teacher and let her return to class. I assume she was at the mall before the infected. Right?

Infected was there on Saturday, the teacher was there on Sunday. Yeah, I read that she returned to class. I know of at least a coupleof students that were at the mall this weekend as well.

[Loco 3752]

 

 

[akhornfan 4]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

This is the key information here, and it matches up with what several of us here have suggested thus far:

This will be more virulent (that is, more transmittable) than the flu.  So, more people will get it - maybe twice as many will get it.  Then, from THAT group of infected, the death rate will be significantly greater than the flu -- maybe 10 times the death rate.  So, 10 times the death rate, in a pool of 2 times as many infected people, gets you 20 times the number of deaths.

If those numbers end up being correct (and again, WAY early still -- they could be off significantly in either direction), then this is really, really bad....but not catastrophic.  Flu kills 12k to 60k per year in the US.  Multiply that by 20....you get a range of deaths from 240,000 to over 1.2 million.  That's....bad...really bad....as in, most of us will know someone who dies from it, but again, not catastrophic to society as a whole.

Buckle up - it's not going to be as bad as some alarmists would say.  Which doesn't matter, because it will be plenty bad enough.

WHO said today that it spreads less efficiently than the flu. So I can just as easily say that half the people will be affected and that the CFR is 3 times and an average of 30,000 deaths so it’s somewhere around 45,000 deaths and if we weren’t talking about it no one would notice. My assumptions are no better or worse than yours. 
 

Yet you end by saying that it ‘will be plenty bad’. What leads you to make that claim?

[TXSG8R 3362]

2 minutes ago, Loco said:

 

 

 

[StruggleBus 3922]

Basically nobody knows shit and we are all going to die, maybe or maybe not in the short term future, possibly. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Nm

 

[Brisketexan 105097]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

WHO said today that it spreads less efficiently than the flu. So I can just as easily say that half the people will be affected and that the CFR is 3 times and an average of 30,000 deaths so it’s somewhere around 45,000 deaths and if we weren’t talking about it no one would notice. My assumptions are no better or worse than yours. 
 

Yet you end by saying that it ‘will be plenty bad’. What leads you to make that claim?

I was going off of the NEJM piece that compared flu, with an RO of 1.1-1.5, to Covid, with an RO around 2.0.  And, it had a CFR of less than 1%, compared to flu, which is .1%.  And I readily concede that those numbers may move.  So, those aren't "my assumptions" - they are numbers from the New England Journal of Medicine.  My only assumption is that NEJM isn't pulling numbers out of its ass, which, based on the history and credibility of the publication, seems like a safe assumption.

In any case, we know that it is almost certainly materially more transmittable than the flu.

And we know that it has a CFR that is significantly greater than the flu (as in multiples worse).  Put those two things that we know together, and it's likely that you'll see a materially higher number of deaths than we see from the flu.  That is 'pretty bad."  Not disastrous, not society-ending, but bad.  Like, materially worse than usual. 

[Loco 3752]

9 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

WHO said today that it spreads less efficiently than the flu.

You gotta a link to the shit you're just spewing out?    Oh yeah I remember from above, "you can't believe what you read bro!" and you don't know anything you just have a feelings....  and those feelings are more or just as valid as any data. 

If you have an agenda, you're sucking at it, and if you are going to troll at least try and be entertaining or witty.  

Edited March 3, 2020 by Loco

[Dahobbs 17534]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Yet you end by saying that it ‘will be plenty bad’. What leads you to make that claim?

I think he was pretty clear why he said plenty bad: tens of millions or more infected, hundreds of thousands to a million a dead. And that is based on the data available now, and not even worse case scenarios. I honestly don't understand what your deal is in this thread. What do you think "bad" is? How many people infected? How many dead? What effect on our resources/economy? 

Again, even in the lowest of low ball scenarios where this is JUST LIKE THE FLU, it is still a very significant event. We spend a ton of resources every year to combat the flu and still end up with thousands dead and hundreds of thousands hospitalized. Our healthcare system is not prepared to handle another event like that in the same year. "Bad" doesn't mean the world ends. Bad means it is going to have a noticeable effect on our daily lives and our economy, at least in the short term. 

[Brisketexan 105097]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

"Bad" doesn't mean the world ends. Bad means it is going to have a noticeable effect on our daily lives and our economy, at least in the short term. 

Bingo.

[staboner 4969]

there is no TP left anywhere. lord. the virus doesn't make you shit more. fucking people and their panicked buttholes. 

[Loco 3752]

Finally a governmental response to the virus

 

[akhornfan 4]

3 minutes ago, Loco said:

You gotta a link to the shit you're just spewing out?    Oh yeah I remember from above, "you can't believe what you read bro!" and you don't know anything you just have a feelings....  and those feelings are more or just as valid as any data. 

If you have an agenda, you're sucking at it, and if you are going to troll at least try and be entertaining or witty.  

The link was a few pages back. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20Q2G6

I’m saying that the quick calculation I did off of Brisket’s post is just as ‘valid’

I believe the lower numbers will be more accurate. But that’s a belief and a guess.  He said it ‘will be bad’ - stronger statement  

 

 

[Goredho 17399]

After the Austin possible case announcement I’ve kept hitting F5 to see who dies, then I realized we would only notice if a prolific poster died mid post and hit submit with their final spasm.

”Three fidd...... Aggggghhhh”

[akhornfan 4]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Bingo.

I’m not arguing your definition of ‘bad’. I’m asking why you’re saying it WILL be bad after throwing out a bunch of ifs and worse case figures. 
 

Do you really think there will be 500,000 deaths?  Or pick another large number. . .

[Loco 3752]

Just now, akhornfan said:

The link was a few pages back. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20Q2G6

I’m saying that the quick calculation I did off of Brisket’s post is just as ‘valid’

I believe the lower numbers will be more accurate. But that’s a belief and a guess.  He said it ‘will be bad’ - stronger statement  

 

 

Bad link.  shocking 

So if Brisket had said "I guess it will be bad" That would have been more valid?  His opinion seems to be informed by the data at hand (albeit scant). So in the I guess based on my feels Vs. Here are my thoughts based on limited information....  he's wiping the floor with you.

[StruggleBus 3922]

1 minute ago, Loco said:

Finally a governmental response to the virus

 

Ha

Unfortunately, the next rest of this month will be a shit show. Thousands of new cases will be reported and everyone will be freaking out more now than they already are. 

Can't help but think our government's entire response to this situation has been downright terrible. I mean, they are handling like I would if I was in charge. And I'm an idiot. 

[akhornfan 4]

2 minutes ago, Loco said:

Bad link.  shocking 

So if Brisket had said "I guess it will be bad" That would have been more valid?  His opinion seems to be informed by the data at hand (albeit scant). So in the I guess based on my feels Vs. Here are my thoughts based on limited information....  he's wiping the floor with you.

It’s back there a few pages

yes - I was specifically asking why he was choosing to be so emphatic about a ‘bad scenario’ instead of choosing to follow the ifs from the previous paragraph. 

[Bash Riprock 1695]

hasn't been just a bunch of olds dying?

[VABuckeye 2472]

Pretty much. 

[clapclapclap 9000]

So stupid to name it the 'Novel Coronavirus', no wonder many think it is fictitious.

[achooloco 1067]

5 hours ago, akhornfan said:

Yes. All the ‘math’ at 2.7% to 5%+ CFR and 20% hospitalization. Was happening yesterday. 

Ok, so literally nobody said it was? Cool

[StruggleBus 3922]

Just now, Bash Riprock said:

hasn't been just a bunch of olds dying?

There have been some younger people dying, but yes, it's mostly olds. If you're under 40 the mortality rate has been .2%. And as far as I know there haven't been any children under 9 that have passed from it yet. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

3 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

hasn't been just a bunch of olds dying?

So, a boost to the economy?

[Loco 3752]

If only there was a company known for making data driven decisions and they had *some* data on people...

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Loco