Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[clapclapclap 9000]

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/12-quarantined-kirkland-firefighters-showing-flu-like-symptoms

Twelve of 30 firefighters and police officers in Kirkland who have been quarantined after potential or direct exposure to the COVID-19 virus at the city's LifeCare facility are now showing "flu-like" symptoms, according to city of Kirkland officials.

The 30 all had been quarantined after they had responded to calls at the LifeCare Facility in the days before and during an outbreak of COVID-19 that was discovered at the center. At least five patients connected to the center have died and more remain sickened.

One firefighter has been released from quarantine after completing their 14-day period while 26 firefighters and three police officers remain.

"Twelve first responders are showing flu-like symptoms, and 19 have confirmed direct exposure," city officials said in a press release. "Most are in isolation or quarantine at home."

[triplehorn 2664]

32 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

WHO said today that it spreads less efficiently than the flu. So I can just as easily say that half the people will be affected and that the CFR is 3 times and an average of 30,000 deaths so it’s somewhere around 45,000 deaths and if we weren’t talking about it no one would notice. My assumptions are no better or worse than yours. 
 

Yet you end by saying that it ‘will be plenty bad’. What leads you to make that claim?

Choice of words - By spreading less efficiently I believe WHO official was pointing out flu time to transmit is about 1.5 days, and covid-19 is 4-5 days.  It means there’s a greater window of opportunity to intervene thus reducing R0.  With zero measures taken, covid could still have a higher R0 than flu.  That’s the meaning I took from it because the context was related to testing and contact tracing, which is ineffective vs flu.

[JesusSweatDuck 17781]

8 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

So, a boost to the economy?

All that inheritance tax too.  Boost to Uncle Sam

[Somnio 751]

12 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

There have been some younger people dying, but yes, it's mostly olds. If you're under 40 the mortality rate has been .2%. And as far as I know there haven't been any children under 9 that have passed from it yet. 

I will point out .2 is still twice the average mortality rate for seasonal flu deaths of all ages, which also disproportionately affects olds.

Under 40 flu deaths?  I dunno but has to be astronomically low.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Somnio

[F250 28767]

17 minutes ago, staboner said:

there is no TP left anywhere. lord. the virus doesn't make you shit more. fucking people and their panicked buttholes. 

Just get one of these.

[StruggleBus 3922]

1 minute ago, Somnio said:

I will point out .2 is still twice the rate for all seasonal flu deaths, which also disproportionately affects olds.

Under 40 flu deaths?  I dunno but has to be astronomically low.

Correct. I don't think there's any doubt that it's significantly more dangerous than the flu outside of children (might not be enough data on children yet). If I happen to contract it, at 36, I'll probably be nervous but it won't be the end of the world (probably).

[Skipper 6133]

2 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I will point out .2 is still twice the rate for all seasonal flu deaths, which also disproportionately affects olds.

Does the normal flu wipe out olds at a nursing home the way that this apparently is in Washington?   It's a tiny data point but doesn't appear good.

[clapclapclap 9000]

8 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

 

 

 

Further down in her tweets:

 

I called the Corona hotline, was on hold for 40 minutes and gave up.

 

 

Gets a new CBS contract and that son of a bitch starts mailing it in.

 

 

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by clapclapclap

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

22 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

I’m not arguing your definition of ‘bad’. I’m asking why you’re saying it WILL be bad after throwing out a bunch of ifs and worse case figures. 
 

Do you really think there will be 500,000 deaths?  Or pick another large number. . .

You convinced me. This is all overblown. Please start licking doorknobs and invite your elderly relatives to move in with you.

[Moby Ric 2058]

Was just at HEB.  The shelf with clorox wipes is empty.  Fortunately my wife saw this coming a year ago and even after I asked her to stop her auto order of lysol wipes kept coming every month.  I could black market these fuckers and make a killing. TP and water were looking low too.  This is nuts. 

[Somnio 751]

Just now, Skipper said:

Does the normal flu wipe out olds at a nursing home the way that this apparently is in Washington?   It's a tiny data point but doesn't appear good.

It does seem way worse, but then again media frenzy may just be making everyone take notice.

[B00M 6414]

3 minutes ago, F250 said:

Just get one of these.

That won't work upside down so you'd have to stand up to use it and then the shit water is running down your leg. Might as well take a shower after every shit if this is what we're resorting to.

[Sbbruin 21842]

45 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Basically nobody knows shit and we are all going to die, maybe or maybe not in the short term future, possibly. 

Finally someone gets it.

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

1 minute ago, Somnio said:

It does seem way worse, but then again media frenzy may just be making everyone take notice.

What media frenzy? If anything, the media has been pretty silent until the last 72 hrs

[Txzen 498]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

That won't matter. The virus stays on surfaces for up to a week compared to the flu which stays on hard surfaces for a couple of days. The coronavirus also lasts longer on the skin. Watch peoples habits. Touching the face, the keyboard, doorknobs... Buying Purell only works to the extent that it is used properly and other bad habits are abated.

Yes - it's different than flu, which outside of a droplet doesn't last long. The report that said it lasts >5d on surfaces was discussed a few pages ago and it's not really correct. While it's likely that surfaces can harbor some infectious material for a day or more, the  virulence drops logarithmically by day. You're far, far more likely to get it by being in close contact with someone infected.

Still, wash your hands. 

[Dahobbs 17534]

24 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

It’s back there a few pages

yes - I was specifically asking why he was choosing to be so emphatic about a ‘bad scenario’ instead of choosing to follow the ifs from the previous paragraph. 

But he didn't choose a worst case scenario, he chose a fairly middle of the road one (less than 1% mortality, RO slightly higher than the typical flu). Again, even if it were just like the flu, it would still be, objectively, bad. I think you must be brain damaged. Either that, or you're an agent of our virus overlords. 

[Somnio 751]

1 minute ago, GreenspointTexas said:

What media frenzy? If anything, the media has been pretty silent until the last 72 hrs

I know.  I still think this is a disaster in the making, but then again I've been wrong before.  And I'm trying to take a more wait and see approach I guess.  The way I see it we will all know soon enough if this is being overblown, or not.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

40 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Bad means it is going to have a noticeable effect on our daily lives and our economy, at least in the short term. 

30 day quarantines would bankrupted a lot of check to check people. Then add the impact on small businesses. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13510]

Already posted but NYTImes is sharing some good maps of the coronavirus growth: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

I find this the most interesting. Will the "rest of the world" growth at the same rate as Mainland China

 

[Trey3216 15346]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Already posted but NYTImes is sharing some good maps of the coronavirus growth: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

I find this the most interesting. Will the "rest of the world" growth at the same rate as Mainland China

 

I honestly don't see why it wouldn't  

[JesusSweatDuck 17781]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Already posted but NYTImes is sharing some good maps of the coronavirus growth: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

I find this the most interesting. Will the "rest of the world" growth at the same rate as Mainland China

 

I'd guess faster due to the inability to do massive quarantines. 

[StruggleBus 3922]

4 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

30 day quarantines would bankrupted a lot of check to check people. Then add the impact on small businesses. 

According to CNBC: 

35 percent of all adults in the U.S. have only several hundred dollars in their savings accounts and 34 percent have zero. Only 15 percent have over $10,000 stashed away.

[akhornfan 4]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

But he didn't choose a worst case scenario, he chose a fairly middle of the road one (less than 1% mortality, RO slightly higher than the typical flu). Again, even if it were just like the flu, it would still be, objectively, bad. I think you must be brain damaged. Either that, or you're an agent of our virus overlords. 

They’re still just guesses. Picking a series of them that leads to 1M deaths is presenting a worse case scenario. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

4 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I'd guess faster due to the inability to do massive quarantines. 

China's quarantine adjusted for population size is around the equilevent of the USA quarantining the entire population of Texas.

Edited March 3, 2020 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Trey3216 15346]

1 minute ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

China's quarantine adjusted for population size is around the equilevent of the USA quarantining the entire population of Texas.

Pretty much, and we know that shit ain't happening.  

[Dahobbs 17534]

1 minute ago, akhornfan said:

They’re still just guesses. Picking a series of them that leads to 1M deaths is presenting a worse case scenario. 

You're right, it is all guesses. We have no data suggesting this virus has higher mortality than the flu. We have no data suggesting it spreads more readily than the flu. China was doing massive quarantines for fun, and the New England Journal of Medicine published the results of dart game, not medical data. It seems like your preference is to simply ignore all of the information available to us because it is incomplete. That is monumentally stupid, but, whatever, it appears our government agrees with your strategy. 

[Txzen 498]

23 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I will point out .2 is still twice the average mortality rate for seasonal flu deaths of all ages, which also disproportionately affects olds.

Under 40 flu deaths?  I dunno but has to be astronomically low.

Percentage of deaths from influence from those with symptomatic illness (2018-2019):

all ages : 0.096%

18-49 : 0.021%

65+ : 0.83% (a 40x higher mortality rate than 18-49)

Link to CDC data

[atomheartbevo 89648]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Damn man, you are evil. I love it! Surl at its finest. 

On another note, Anchor on CNN just said why is SXSW going to go on. 

Petition to move SXSW to Sun City for this year.  

[SydneyCarton 48076]

2 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

China's quarantine adjusted for population size is around the equilevent of the USA quarantining the entire population of Texas.

If we're being accurate, the state of Hubei has 57 million folks in it and they were all subject to varying levels of quarantining, particularly in their cities. 

The entire state of Texas only has 29 million people. So literally it's half the population of Hubei. 

Also, for shits and giggles, Hubei is just over 70k square miles. Texas is just under 270k square miles. That's twice as many people crammed into a bit more than 1/4 the square miles. Now, whether that is a good or bad thing for transmission versus the ease of a full quarantine, everyone here can draw whatever fucking conclusions they want towards whatever line of thought they're currently leaning. But I think everyone can agree you're talking about a pretty massive fucking operation that you wont see even remotely replicated in the US. The advantages of totalitarian rule, I guess. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Pretty much, and we know that shit ain't happening.  

I laugh at the notion of any mass quarantine happening in the United States. Even these people who are “self-quarantining” are running to Starbucks and other conveniences. There’s no respect for others or authority here.

[SydneyCarton 48076]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You're right, it is all guesses. We have no data suggesting this virus has higher mortality than the flu. We have no data suggesting it spreads more readily than the flu. China was doing massive quarantines for fun, and the New England Journal of Medicine published the results of dart game, not medical data. It seems like your preference is to simply ignore all of the information available to us because it is incomplete. That is monumentally stupid, but, whatever, it appears our government agrees with your strategy. 

For fuck's sake man, if you think this guy is a brain damaged fucking dipshit, stop replying to his posts. 

 

 

Sincerely, 

Me. And probably the rest of this thread. But definitely me. 

Edited March 3, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[Dahobbs 17534]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

For fuck's sake man, if you think this guy is a brain damaged fucking dipshit, stop replying to his posts. 

 

If we all followed that advice there would be no internet. 

[Brisketexan 105095]

15 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

They’re still just guesses. Picking a series of them that leads to 1M deaths is presenting a worse case scenario. 

Guesses?  Yes.  Of course they are - that's what literally every single projection of a future event is -- a guess.  This one, however, was an educated guess.  See below.

11 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You're right, it is all guesses. We have no data suggesting this virus has higher mortality than the flu. We have no data suggesting it spreads more readily than the flu. China was doing massive quarantines for fun, and the New England Journal of Medicine published the results of dart game, not medical data. It seems like your preference is to simply ignore all of the information available to us because it is incomplete. That is monumentally stupid, but, whatever, it appears our government agrees with your strategy. 

I used NEJM numbers.  I used relatively conservative numbers within those ranges.  I then applied them to our population to create an extrapolation/prediction.  This is exactly how people make predictions upon which policy decisions are then made.  They are, of course, not even close to 100% accurate.  Because they are based on the best known data (which we know isn't perfect), and they presume continued performance in terms of transmission and death along the lines of the current performance.  All of which may, ultimately, vary.

But yes, based on the NEJM numbers, I am comfortable with my prediction that we will see significantly more deaths from Covid19 than we have seen from the seasonal flu in recent years.  And that's a bad thing, which will affect our lives and our economy.  And I will be working with my clients accordingly.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Brisketexan

[akhornfan 4]

And I think in general my position is being misunderstood. I have an opinion that the ending outcome of this will not fall in the ‘bad’ realm. I’m basing that opinion on light research and following the situation and it’s for sure affected by intuition world view as well. I certainly accept I may be wrong.

Brisket did some back of the napkin math, ended up with some large numbers, which he clarified with an ‘if’, but then ended his post with a pretty emphatic statement that thing will be ‘bad’. 
 

I’m asking him if he strongly believes a number in those death ranges or is just taking some dramatic license?

typing at the same time. Your post above answered my question. Thanks for the clarity. 

Edited March 3, 2020 by akhornfan
See last sentence

[atomheartbevo 89648]

2 hours ago, F250 said:

Just got a notice from my kid's high school. Due to a teacher shopping at North Star mall this weekend the school will be undergoing a deep clean. I don't know what that means but it's a cleaning that is deep.

Ask your wife what a deep clean is.  

[atomheartbevo 89648]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Everybody freak out

 

So when Austin says there’s one being tested, they actually mean closer to 15-20?

[heso 2791]

48 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

There have been some younger people dying, but yes, it's mostly olds. If you're under 40 the mortality rate has been .2%. And as far as I know there haven't been any children under 9 that have passed from it yet. 

And the mortality rate for the flu for the 18-49 range in 2017-18 was 0.02%. Roughly 2800 deaths on 14.4 million infected. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

27 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

They’re still just guesses. Picking a series of them that leads to 1M deaths is presenting a worse case scenario. 

And looking at your post history my guess is you're 100% troll. Screen name created March of 2018 and not a single post until 2/28/2020 and all of those are in this thread.  https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/237-akhornfan/content/&all_activity=1

Fire all neg rep cannons.

Bye Felicia.

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Brisketexan 105095]

1 minute ago, akhornfan said:

And I think in general my position is being misunderstood. I have an opinion that the ending outcome of this will not fall in the ‘bad’ realm. I’m basing that opinion on light research and following the situation and it’s for sure affected by intuition world view as well. I certainly accept I may be wrong.

Brisket did some back of the napkin math, ended up with some large numbers, which he clarified with an ‘if’, but then ended his post with a pretty emphatic statement that thing will be ‘bad’. 
 

I’m asking him if he strongly believes a number in those death ranges or is just taking some dramatic license?

Based on the two things that seem to be crystallizing as truth: a materially higher transmission rate than flu, and a significantly higher death rate than flu (note, for something with an overall death rate of .1%, something with even 5 times the death rate still would have a "relatively" low death rate of .5%), yes, I believe that the ranges I posted reflect what is pretty likely to be the final outcome.  In short, I'll be surprised if the total deaths in the US, when all is said and done, aren't at least 150-200k, and I'll be surprised if they exceed 1.2 million.   And even that low number would be way more than we have seen from the flu since 1918-19.

[atomheartbevo 89648]

1 hour ago, Loco said:

You gotta a link to the shit you're just spewing out?    Oh yeah I remember from above, "you can't believe what you read bro!" and you don't know anything you just have a feelings....  and those feelings are more or just as valid as any data. 

If you have an agenda, you're sucking at it, and if you are going to troll at least try and be entertaining or witty.  

It’s odd as hell - there seems to be a handful of posters who don’t think we should be doing anything at all to contain this - they don’t want more testing in the US , don’t want even rudimentary temperature checks at the airports, they don’t want travel bans, etc.

Either they have a financial interest that is being damaged, or they hate their families.  

[atomheartbevo 89648]

1 hour ago, staboner said:

there is no TP left anywhere. lord. the virus doesn't make you shit more. fucking people and their panicked buttholes. 

You poors and your lack of the three seashells.   

[atomheartbevo 89648]

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

Ha

Unfortunately, the next rest of this month will be a shit show. Thousands of new cases will be reported and everyone will be freaking out more now than they already are. 

Can't help but think our government's entire response to this situation has been downright terrible. I mean, they are handling like I would if I was in charge. And I'm an idiot. 

They are handling it pretty much like I expect aggy would.  

[heso 2791]

17 minutes ago, Txzen said:

Percentage of deaths from influence from those with symptomatic illness (2018-2019):

all ages : 0.096%

18-49 : 0.021%

65+ : 0.83% (a 40x higher mortality rate than 18-49)

Link to CDC data

Beat me to it. 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

40 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Does the normal flu wipe out olds at a nursing home the way that this apparently is in Washington?   It's a tiny data point but doesn't appear good.

If it was wiping out the olds at other nursing homes the way this is hitting that one in Washington state, the nursing home industry would go bankrupt in short order.   

[atomheartbevo 89648]

32 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I know.  I still think this is a disaster in the making, but then again I've been wrong before.  And I'm trying to take a more wait and see approach I guess.  The way I see it we will all know soon enough if this is being overblown, or not.

The Chinese were welding doors to apartment complexes shut, quarantining a population well over twice the size of the state of Texas, willingly putting their massive economy in the shitter for months, and building dozens of new hospitals.  And they know far more about it than we do.  

This is a country that is more than happy to sacrifice millions to boost its economy, and instead they put the brakes on.  

[akhornfan 4]

8 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

And looking at your post history my guess is you're 100% troll. Screen name created March of 2018 and not a single post until 2/28/2020 and all of those are in this thread. 

Fire all neg rep cannons.

Bye Felicia.

 

Whatever. I’ve been around forever. I just rarely post. None of what I’m saying it troll. Feel free to disagree. @triplehorn you may remember me from Portland like 10 years ago. 

[InkaUtexas 25907]

Sadly seems like we are handling it more like Iran with the exception our party leaders are not getting sick. Yet. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

11 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Whatever. I’ve been around forever. I just rarely post. None of what I’m saying it troll. Feel free to disagree. @triplehorn you may remember me from Portland like 10 years ago. 

You don't have a single post outside of this thread and none over two weeks old.  https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/237-akhornfan/content/&all_activity=1

Edited March 3, 2020 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[akhornfan 4]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s odd as hell - there seems to be a handful of posters who don’t think we should be doing anything at all to contain this - they don’t want more testing in the US , don’t want even rudimentary temperature checks at the airports, they don’t want travel bans, etc.

Either they have a financial interest that is being damaged, or they hate their families.  

I think we should be testing and don’t understand why we’re not. I don’t hate all of my family.

i don’t think we need to be doing massive quarantines. 

[akhornfan 4]

1 minute ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

You don't have a single outside of this thread and none over two weeks old.  https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/237-akhornfan/content/&all_activity=1

So what?