Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Armybrat 40,850]

10 hours ago, Somnio said:

Jeez, Iran is a mess.

Allah has spoken.

[atomheartbevo 89,727]

17 minutes ago, dimyh said:

My India team's office was just shut down. Had one reported case from a different floor --- a visiting Italian. Now they are shutting down the entire building and we are scrambling to get everyone setup to work remotely. Furk.

They announced 22 new cases, so you’re already dead?

Indeed is having all employees work from home.  

http://press.indeed.com/press/indeeds-response-to-covid-19/

[Bevo 13,579]

33 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

CDC estimated the death rate at 3.4% but said its not as contagious as the seasonal flu. Both of those were a little surprising to me. It'd be great if the spread is limit to local outbreaks but the Wuhan example and lengths the Chinese had to go to contain it plus the rapid spread in Iran make it seems like it's more viral. 

Both those comments seem wrong. The mortality rate shows 1.5% for the world outside of China which includes a mortality rate of 4.5% in Iran and 2.5% in Italy. My best guess is that the mortality rate will be in the 1% range. It hovered around 0.3% from Jan.-mid Feb. All the CDC did was take the reported numbers including China. They aren't taking into account unreported cases.

As far as not being as contagious as the seasonal flu, I have my doubts also. Maybe it is the definition of contagious that they are using, but it sure seems to spread around cruise ships and nursing homes pretty fast. And I have never seen a map showing the spread of the flu each season, but the spread of COVID-19 around the world from just a few cases in early January has been impressive.

[atomheartbevo 89,727]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

As far as not being as contagious as the seasonal flu, I have my doubts also. Maybe it is the definition of contagious that they are using, but it sure seems to spread around cruise ships and nursing homes pretty fast. And I have never seen a map showing the spread of the flu each season, but the spread of COVID-19 around the world from just a few cases in early January has been impressive.

Maps and charts here that you might find interesting

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#ILINet

[atomheartbevo 89,727]

So they maybe testing more in TC

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200303/travis-county-testing-at-least-one-person-for-new-coronavirus

”Mark Escott, interim medical director and health authority for Austin Public Health, said federal health policy prevents him from revealing how many people in Travis County were being tested for the virus. But he did say local health officials would provide more information if that individual, or individuals, test positive for the virus.

“This is a recent development,” Escott told Travis County commissioners in a briefing on the new coronavirus. “We are not going to provide numbers or details about the persons under investigation.”

The city of Austin on Tuesday shifted to the second phase of its five-phase response plan to the new coronavirus, which is “testing in progress,” according to Escott. Austin had been in the first phase through Monday, which is “persons under monitoring.”

However, criteria for coronavirus testing created by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently changed, Austin Public Health spokeswoman Jen Samp said. People no longer need to have traveled to certain countries, such as China, to be tested, according to Samp.”

[Loco 3,752]

For the record, I was the first person to call AK a troll.  And he is, and probably a sock too.  I'm not going to spend my time looking into it further than his posts here.

I do wonder why close feels he needs to dust off his cape and do some white knighting on behalf of an obvious troll...  but that's up to him.

 

back on topic...  This dude gets it

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

30 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Headed to California today. Prayers needed.

RIP

[alincoln 2,381]

I would become a Liverpool supporter if all American celebrities followed Klopp's lead 

[InkaUtexas 25,983]

9 minutes ago, Loco said:

For the record, I was the first person to call AK a troll.  And he is, and probably a sock too.  I'm not going to spend my time looking into it further than his posts here.

I do wonder why close feels he needs to dust off his cape and do some white knighting on behalf of an obvious troll...  but that's up to him.

 

back on topic...  This dude gets it

 

Saw this! Great take on the situation. But he needs to wash his fucking hands. 

[alincoln 2,381]

Klopp may be in trouble given his personal hygiene 

[Loco 3,752]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Saw this! Great take on the situation. But he needs to wash his fucking hands. 

I love how he starts off by wiping his nose so hard you can hear it.  RIP that beard

[heso 2,813]

If this thing spread as easily as the flu and South Korea is testing tens of thousands of people a day, shouldn’t their numbers be shooting up by thousands per day?

[SimonBolivar 10,958]

57 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Many poorer people don’t have bank accounts for many reasons.  They cash their paychecks as soon as they get them. 
 

Many of the elderly also come up here and get all of their retirement deposit out in cash once a month. There's also a pretty big group of people that will come in and get out $25-$30 a day everyday. I'm guessing they're just looking for someone to talk to and something to do.

[closetojumping 62,746]

6 minutes ago, Loco said:

For the record, I was the first person to call AK a troll.  And he is, and probably a sock too.  I'm not going to spend my time looking into it further than his posts here.

I do wonder why close feels he needs to dust off his cape and do some white knighting on behalf of an obvious troll...  but that's up to him.

 

back on topic...  This dude gets it

 

There’s no mystery with my behavior regarding trying to crowdsource that poster. I enjoy actual dissent and fruitful discussion exploring various angles of a topic, even when some sides of it irritate me. Guys like you can’t handle such a premise and want to assume that if someone isn’t seeing it your way, they’re a bad guy and you need to plug your wars and wail “la-la-la” loudly until they go away. 

I also despise the bleating sheep mentality that gets exhibited by guys like you when someone is adamant with a position counter to yours. It’s a tried and true premise on this board from a group of you clowns. Someone doesn’t agree with you and you don’t know them well? Well, they need to fucking die then. Crowdsource!!!! Fuck off with that. So yeah, I’ll take the counter side even when I don’t agree with the poster being attacked. Then you know what happens? The lemmings will shut the fuck up about it and go back to other hysterics. 

Also, “white knighting” and “triggered” are weak whines used by folks most frequently in places like the cloak room or when a twitter mob can’t handle a counter position to their manufactured rage. I take it as a validation of my position when those tropes start getting thrown out there. 

[Loco 3,752]

2 minutes ago, heso said:

If this thing spread as easily as the flu and South Korea is testing tens of thousands of people a day, shouldn’t their numbers be shooting up by thousands per day?

I'd guess some of those extraordinary measures we have been marveling at have paid off.   I think I'll keep an eye on Italy and see how this plays out in a run of the mill developed county (better analog to the US)

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,116]

4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I enjoy actual dissent and fruitful discussion exploring various angles of a topic, even when some sides of it irritate me.

* Unless it involves discussions about Tom Herman.

[atomheartbevo 89,727]

For those watching this since January and who may have wondered about Wuhan’s rapid spread and mortality and the like.   Note:  They are cautioning that this is preliminary and they need more data.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html

“Researchers in China have found that two different types of the new coronavirus could be causing infections worldwide.

In a preliminary study published Tuesday, scientists at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai found that a more aggressive type of the new coronavirus had accounted for roughly 70% of analyzed strains, while 30% had been linked to a less aggressive type.

The more aggressive type of virus was found to be prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan — the Chinese city where COVID-19 was first detected late last year. 

But the frequency of this type of virus has since decreased from early January.

The researchers said their results indicate the development of new variations of the spike in COVID-19 cases was “likely caused by mutations and natural selection besides recombination.”

[atomheartbevo 89,727]

7 minutes ago, Loco said:

I think I'll keep an eye on Italy and see how this plays out in a run of the mill developed county (better analog to the US)

From Italian govt stats (They aren’t testing everybody obviously)

[Doc Reeves 6,434]

9 minutes ago, Loco said:

I'd guess some of those extraordinary measures we have been marveling at have paid off.   I think I'll keep an eye on Italy and see how this plays out in a run of the mill developed county (better analog to the US)

Wait, wut? Italy?  Italy is analogous to Mexico.

[Loco 3,752]

4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

There’s no mystery with my behavior regarding trying to crowdsource that poster. I enjoy actual dissent and fruitful discussion exploring various angles of a topic, even when some sides of it irritate me. Guys like you can’t handle such a premise and want to assume that if someone isn’t seeing it your way, they’re a bad guy and you need to plug your wars and wail “la-la-la” loudly until they go away. 

I also despise the bleating sheep mentality that gets exhibited by guys like you when someone is adamant with a position counter to yours. It’s a tried and true premise on this board from a group of you clowns. Someone doesn’t agree with you and you don’t know them well? Well, they need to fucking die then. Crowdsource!!!! Fuck off with that. So yeah, I’ll take the counter side even when I don’t agree with the poster being attacked. Then you know what happens? The lemmings will shut the fuck up about it and go back to other hysterics. 

Also, “white knighting” and “triggered” are weak whines used by folks most frequently in places like the cloak room or when a twitter mob can’t handle a counter position to their manufactured rage. I take it as a validation of my position when those tropes start getting thrown out there. 

1) AK hasn't added a got damned thing to the discussion other than "you can't believe what you read" as a response to people trying to engage in discussion.  I asked him to clarify his position and his response was along the lines of "all I know is we are not all going to die"   Is that the type of thoughtful dialog you seek?   So I called him out and neg'd his post 

2) I'm all ears my man, why don't you articulate for me AK's position...  perhaps I'm an idiot and missed his nuanced and critical take 

3) It's hilarious that you think "whiteknight" and "triggered" are unique to Surly CR.   You're gonna love the internet, you should try it out sometime.

[alincoln 2,381]

4 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

Wait, wut? Italy?  Italy is analogous to Mexico.

N. Italy is more like France than Mexico 

[Loco 3,752]

3 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

Wait, wut? Italy?  Italy is analogous to Mexico.

I agree if we are talking food.  

If you think Italy is more like Mexico than the US, I'd recommend a road trip through the deep south.  Mississippi, Alabamba, Arkansas...Appalachia. 

[HenryJames 66,119]

27 minutes ago, alincoln said:

I would become a Liverpool supporter if all American celebrities followed Klopp's lead 

I would become a Liverpool supporter if all of their current supporters died from the Coronavirus.

[Armybrat 40,850]

1 minute ago, Loco said:

I agree if we are talking food.  

If you think Italy is more like Mexico than the US, I'd recommend a road trip through the deep south.  Mississippi, Alabamba, Arkansas...Appalachia. 

That would analogous to driving through southeastern Europe.

[akhornfan 4]

32 minutes ago, Loco said:

For the record, I was the first person to call AK a troll.  And he is, and probably a sock too.  I'm not going to spend my time looking into it further than his posts here.

I do wonder why close feels he needs to dust off his cape and do some white knighting on behalf of an obvious troll...  but that's up to him.

 

back on topic...  This dude gets it

 

You’re incredibly paranoid. I think the numbers are going to be below what you do and you can’t handle that?  
If you look back over the last few days the board consensus seemed to hover near 3% CFR and I was showing how I thought they was too high. Now I’m seeing a bunch of people saying it’ll be 1%. I think the S Korea numbers will turn out to be close. I still don’t see any other country claiming to do testing on the scale that they do. It’s also been in that country for a long time comparatively and the death figures just aren’t piling up. 

[MissingInAction 25,106]

Can we get a carrier to stroll through the Sun Cities of the country please?

[akhornfan 4]

9 minutes ago, Loco said:

1) AK hasn't added a got damned thing to the discussion other than "you can't believe what you read" as a response to people trying to engage in discussion.  I asked him to clarify his position and his response was along the lines of "all I know is we are not all going to die"   Is that the type of thoughtful dialog you seek?   So I called him out and neg'd his post 

2) I'm all ears my man, why don't you articulate for me AK's position...  perhaps I'm an idiot and missed his nuanced and critical take 

3) It's hilarious that you think "whiteknight" and "triggered" are unique to Surly CR.   You're gonna love the internet, you should try it out sometime.

I have been arguing against current CFR being used as projected CFR and that has been my main point. When I said ‘believe everything you read’ someone had posted a screenshot of a google search showing a bunch of links to a 2.3% or 2.7% CFR. Using that to attempt to project the future is foolish and I pointed that out. Doing so didn’t include any critical thinking. 

[Goredho 17,408]

16 hours ago, Txzen said:

Percentage of deaths from influence from those with symptomatic illness (2018-2019):

all ages : 0.096%

18-49 : 0.021%

65+ : 0.83% (a 40x higher mortality rate than 18-49)

Link to CDC data

I appreciate this post.  For comparison, the elder care facility has had 4% of its elderly residents die from coronavirus in under a week.  I have only seen that there are “50 residents and staff infected”.  Let’s say all 50 are residents,   That’s a 16% mortality rate among the infected so far, which is fairly close to the demographic data that came out of China.  The outbreak there is still active.

[Helobious 9,462]

1 minute ago, Goredho said:

I appreciate this post.  For comparison, the elder care facility has had 4% of its elderly residents die from coronavirus in under a week.  I have only seen that there are “50 residents and staff infected”.  Let’s say all 50 are residents,   That’s a 16% mortality rate among the infected so far, which is fairly close to the demographic data that came out of China.  The outbreak there is still active.

Some of those deaths happened 1-2 weeks ago. It’s just this past week that they all got attributed to coronavirus.

[Loco 3,752]

6 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

That would analogous to driving through southeastern Europe.

I've spent time in the south and in Italy.  Country sides are about the same (poor agrarian), big cities like Rome, Florence, Milan are modern and have medical facilities that would rival US cities of the same size.  My uncle traveled from the US to Rome for his cancer treatments.  He lived in NYC

I'm not saying it's an exact match, I just think of the countries infected they are the best emerging model to look at.   If the US had rolled out a stiff response and testing the Koreans did, I'd say look at them.

Fun fact...  as for the US/Italy comparison.  Tuscany is about the same latitude as Oregon.  

[Texas_Rocks 346]

SXSW will be immune to this, right?

[Bevo 13,579]

Just now, Loco said:

I've spent time in the south and in Italy. 

I've done the same. My childhood sounds a little like yours. Kind of typical, I guess. Summers in Rangoon, luge lessons. In the spring we'd make bat meat helmets.

[NoName 16,354]

Dallas County update:

 

Tarrant County update:

 

 

Edited March 4, 2020 by NoName

[Loco 3,752]

Just now, Texas_Rocks said:

SXSW will be immune to this, right?

Spring break is just starting to happen here.  Each week a wave of kids from all over the country flies in and drinks/parties themselves stupid.  The grocery store I go to is by the beach and the beer isle is taking a real beating.   I usually don't worry about wiping down the cart handle, but I've been starting to do that every time now.  Yesterday I walk in get a cart, roll over to the wipes (i'm already bare-handing the plague in my mind)  and wipe the handle and my hands.  Next thing I do is touch my fucking face....  every fucking isle.  Oh adjust my sunglasses as I'm walking out...   /csb

 

[DaysOff 7,951]

Has anyone looked at the map of infections on BNO?

I've watched it expand from China, to now the whole world.

It has me thinking, I don't think anyone alive has experienced what's taking place right now.  Sure, there have been disasters all over the world, but they have always been somewhat localized.

A hurricane here, an earthquake there, a disease outbreak somewhere, and so and so forth.

This however is the entire globe.  And it's in slow motion.

 

The swine flu in 1976 seemed pretty bad on a global scale, or maybe I'm biased because I caught it when I was nine. I was out of school two weeks and when I went back everyone could write in cursive except me.

 

[triplehorn 2,664]

18 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

You’re incredibly paranoid. I think the numbers are going to be below what you do and you can’t handle that?  
If you look back over the last few days the board consensus seemed to hover near 3% CFR and I was showing how I thought they was too high. Now I’m seeing a bunch of people saying it’ll be 1%. I think the S Korea numbers will turn out to be close. I still don’t see any other country claiming to do testing on the scale that they do. It’s also been in that country for a long time comparatively and the death figures just aren’t piling up. 

You're omitting the crucial other half of the equation that determines numbers and outcomes - contact tracing.  Aggressive testing combined with rapid aggressive action is what drives the actual numbers down.  So in that regard, comparing SoKo to the US as a predictor has a lot of error.  Why?  Because we're doing neither.

 

 

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

5 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

The swine flu in 1976 seemed pretty bad on a global scale, or maybe I'm biased because I caught it when I was nine. I was out of school two weeks and when I went back everyone could write in cursive except me.

 

Well, FWIW they don't teach cursive in school anymore.

[Updawg 2,268]

Well, FWIW they don't teach cursive in school anymore.

My daughter's school does. She doesn't like it though

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

Just now, Updawg said:

1 minute ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Well, FWIW they don't teach cursive in school anymore.

My daughter's school does. She doesn't like it though

My kids' elementary school actively discouraged it.  As did the private school they went to after that.

[Somnio 751]

23 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

You’re incredibly paranoid. I think the numbers are going to be below what you do and you can’t handle that?  
If you look back over the last few days the board consensus seemed to hover near 3% CFR and I was showing how I thought they was too high. Now I’m seeing a bunch of people saying it’ll be 1%. I think the S Korea numbers will turn out to be close. I still don’t see any other country claiming to do testing on the scale that they do. It’s also been in that country for a long time comparatively and the death figures just aren’t piling up. 

 

Latest S. Korean data:

5,621 infected

35 deaths

52 serious/critical

34 recovered

 

[Txzen 498]

9 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

The swine flu in 1976 seemed pretty bad on a global scale, or maybe I'm biased because I caught it when I was nine. I was out of school two weeks and when I went back everyone could write in cursive except me.

 

I remember lining up in the gym for the vaccination for that (using the machine gun thing in this linked article). 
 

interesting that in many ways the failed public policy around the vaccinations for swine flu probably still linger today. And I do know one person who likely developed Guillan-Barre from the vaccine. 
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/long-shadow-1976-swine-flu-vaccine-fiasco-180961994/

[Macanudo 12,989]

17 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I've done the same. My childhood sounds a little like yours. Kind of typical, I guess. Summers in Rangoon, luge lessons. In the spring we'd make bat meat helmets.

Ok but have you ever had a freshly shorn scrotum?

[Bevo 13,579]

16 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

The swine flu in 1976 seemed pretty bad on a global scale, or maybe I'm biased because I caught it when I was nine. I was out of school two weeks and when I went back everyone could write in cursive except me.

 

So you are in charge of flying millions of people around the world who literally put their faith and their lives in your hands and you can't even fucking sign your name! Jesus.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Bevo

[HenryJames 66,119]

19 minutes ago, Texas_Rocks said:

SXSW will be immune to this, right?

Only badge holders.

[Homesickhorn 2,202]

2 hours ago, Casual Encounter said:

The world is full of them. Singapore has a great method for dealing with it.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-singapore-permanent-resident-who-breached-stay-home-notice-stripped-of-pr

Damn.  Singapore fucks.

[Dnaguy 12,000]

21 minutes ago, Texas_Rocks said:

SXSW will be immune to this, right?

Well the Houston rodeo is... or at least that seems like the posture right now.

i haven’t heard one person actually say they aren’t going due to this shit.

Cook off debauchery  > corona virus fear

[DaysOff 7,951]

So you are in charge of flying millions of people around the world who literally put their faith and their lives in your hands and you can't even fucking sign your name! Jesus.

We use electronic signature to sign the dispatch release. It's technology dude.

[Trey3216 15,347]

9 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Well the Houston rodeo is... or at least that seems like the posture right now.

i haven’t heard one person actually say they aren’t going due to this shit.

Cook off debauchery  > corona virus fear

Yeah, you knew that the show would go on when they continued with the cookoff even through a Mandatory Boil Water event from that water mane rupture.  I couldn't believe the restaurants were all open as well considering it's unsanitary to operate a restaurant in a Boil event.  

[Dnaguy 12,000]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Yeah, you knew that the show would go on when they continued with the cookoff even through a Mandatory Boil Water event from that water mane rupture.  I couldn't believe the restaurants were all open as well considering it's unsanitary to operate a restaurant in a Boil event.  

Who drinks water at cook off?

 

Now if the anheuser Busch brewery On I10 had a mass Bud light release and that flooded 610, then we’d be talking.

 

Plus the Tito’s and tequila volumes At cookoff are more than enough to make up any sanitary deficiencies of not having running water.

[Goredho 17,408]

52 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Some of those deaths happened 1-2 weeks ago. It’s just this past week that they all got attributed to coronavirus.

Thanks for the correction