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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89649

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Additionally, I linked to an article from CBS earlier where a woman mentioned that her elderly parent from Seattle elderly Care center died of "natural causes" and they refused to test the body for coronavirus. I wonder how many of these "natural causes" deaths should really be attributed to that?

Good to see we are following China’s playbook.  Can’t have positives if you don’t test.  

PointingToForeheadButNotTapping(Touching)Forehead.gif

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

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31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Correct.

Also, we should already be mobilizing military medical resources.  We have the ability to set up functioning field hospitals.  Military medical personnel have a shitload of PPE (we are equipped to deal with NBC attacks).  The military is going to have significant medical equipment at hand, including ventilators.

If we were taking a comprehensive, national approach to managing this, we'd be doing a nationwide inventory of all available resources, anywhere.  Dragoon local health officials into getting a count from all local health providers, down to day surgery centers and nursing homes, of ventilators and oxygen supplies.  Do the same with the military.  Include any archaic equipment that's been mothballed.  Start working on the logistics of either constructing field hospitals, and/or repurposing existing structures to serve as care facilities.

And that's just on the medical treatment side.

If it's not time yet, it's damn near there -- ban large gatherings.  Sorry, sports and concerts, you're going to have to take a break.  Churches, you need to limit attendance, too, and stop all personal contact (first amendment concerns, sure, but police powers during a limited period for a limited purpose CAN trump those protections).  And there are other measures to be taken as well (we can learn from what other countries have done).

The target is slowing the spread so that our healthcare system can keep up with acute cases.  Period.  That's the only goal.  And get us to summer, when the transmission rate will likely slow.

I agree.   On the military thing, I would more or less guarantee you this is occurring already and isn't really being talked about due to the sensitivity of the public re: 'military intervention' on our own soil.  There's been quite a bit of activity around Ft Hood, and even around the Nat'l Guard station here in Waco ( I drive by a few times/week).  I had responded to someone bitching about China's building of 19 new hospitals in Wuhan in 3 weeks that we could build hundreds of hospitals in a few hours when we have to.  They would be full-scale battlefield style hospitals courtesy of the military, but they would be employed with equipment and people that would get the job done, and they would get it done rapidly.  We won't see that for a few weeks, and I hope to God we don't have to see it.  

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1648

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Which is why there needs to be widely available testing at low or no cost. If I get fever and a cough, I may not quarantine, but if I can go get tested, see I have it, then I would. Also, you test to make sure asympomatic people aren't spreading it. Guy posted yesterday that his uncle has it, confirmed, but his aunt has no symptoms, so they aren't testing her. She's free to roam. That is gross negligence. She should obviously be tested to help reduce the spread.

As has been posted over and over, slowing the spread is YUGE as far as crippling effects on our economy and health care system. 100,000 hospitalized over a 6 month period is dramatically different than over a 1 month period. 

I'm not suggesting that we shouldn't try to slow it down, I'm only saying that massive testing would not lead to containment.  

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JesusSweatDuck

JesusSweatDuck 17781

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22 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Any thoughts on what to expect in terms of airlines giving back-out options on non-refundable tickets? None? I have trips to Anaheim and Vegas that I'd probably like to cancel if possible. Anaheim on Delta and Vegas on SWA

 

 

 

 

SWA should let you cancel and just keep the $ for a later booking.  Delta will charge at least $200 to cancel and then you get the keep the rest for a later booking

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89649

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2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I agree.   On the military thing, I would more or less guarantee you this is occurring already and isn't really being talked about due to the sensitivity of the public re: 'military intervention' on our own soil.  There's been quite a bit of activity around Ft Hood, and even around the Nat'l Guard station here in Waco ( I drive by a few times/week).  I had responded to someone bitching about China's building of 19 new hospitals in Wuhan in 3 weeks that we could build hundreds of hospitals in a few hours when we have to.  They would be full-scale battlefield style hospitals courtesy of the military, but they would be employed with equipment and people that would get the job done, and they would get it done rapidly.  We won't see that for a few weeks, and I hope to God we don't have to see it.  

I’ve seen Chinooks and a Blackhawk flying around Austin this morning, but I’m near Mabry.  Chinook looked like it was flying from ABiA or Bastrop/Swift area, Blackhawk had external fuel tanks and looked like it was coming from the south/southwest   

/tinfoil

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
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Just now, atomheartbevo said:

I’ve seen Chinooks and a Blackhawk flying around Austin this morning, but I’m near Mabry.  Chinook looked like it was flying from ABiA or Bastrop/Swift area, Blackhawk had external fuel tanks and looked like it was coming from the south/southwest   

/tinfoil

I've seen quite a few here as well. Normally that just means President Bush is having returning soldiers come out to the ranch for a few days, but they've been a little more frequent than one of his typical trips.   

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Goredho

Goredho 17399

Posted
Posted (edited)

May have been posted, but from the director general of the world health organization:

“This is not a drill. This is not the time to give up. This is not a time for excuses. This is a time for pulling out all the stops. Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans,” Ghebreyesus said. “This epidemic can be pushed back, but only with a collective, coordinated and comprehensive approach that engages tche entire machinery of government.”

I am not sure how well we are acting on those plans.  Things appear chaotic right now, but to some degree of initial chaos while we overcome inertia is to be expected.

https://q13fox.com/2020/03/05/who-warns-governments-this-is-not-a-drill-as-coronavirus-infections-near-100000-worldwide/

Edited by Goredho
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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21842

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11 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

SWA should let you cancel and just keep the $ for a later booking.  Delta will charge at least $200 to cancel and then you get the keep the rest for a later booking

My wife had a conference cancelled in Napa that was scheduled for next week.  SWA let her just take the booking as a credit.

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Macanudo

Macanudo 12976

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17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I’ve seen Chinooks and a Blackhawk flying around Austin this morning, but I’m near Mabry.  Chinook looked like it was flying from ABiA or Bastrop/Swift area, Blackhawk had external fuel tanks and looked like it was coming from the south/southwest   

/tinfoil

External fuel tanks or.....   Napalm?

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
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I should've snapped some horder pix at Costco this morning. My favorite was the woman who had 3 boxes of microwave popcorn on her horder cart.  Everyone needs 132 bags of microwave popcorn for a possible 3 week quarantine situation. 

Costco was crazy quiet and packed. Not a soul in the center aisles, everyone was all food and household supplies. Pretty freaky to experience. No samples were being given out.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
My wife had a conference cancelled in Napa that was scheduled for next week.  SWA let her just take the booking as a credit.
Good info. The Anaheim trip was me piggybacking off of a conference my wife is (or was) attending in late March. I'm assuming it will be cancelled.
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105095

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3 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

I should've snapped some horder pix at Costco this morning. My favorite was the woman who had 3 boxes of microwave popcorn on her horder cart.  Everyone needs 132 bags of microwave popcorn for a possible 3 week quarantine situation. 

Costco was crazy quiet and packed. Not a soul in the center aisles, everyone was all food and household supplies. Pretty freaky to experience. No samples were being given out.

White people are very good at panicking.  Ethnic folks, particularly those who have seen some shit, not so much.

Pro-tip - go shopping at a mexican grocery store.  It will be perfectly normal.  And, you'll stock up on more delicious stuff anyway.

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2300 Nueces

2300 Nueces 163

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Ha. The jokes on you, sir. I've been prepping for this moment for most of my adult life. I have a bunch of little kids, so I'm pretty, prettay sure that I'm immune. Beyond that, one of my brothers is a doctor and has already loaded me up on various needs for when the apocalypse comes. Beyond beyond that, as a Surly 1%er, naturally I own a medical treatment company and we stocked all the way the fuck up on zinc, vitamin c, a bunch of other medical shit, and 3 months of inventory worth of lactated ringers. The hype around this thing is going to be a boon. Also also also, we've immediately started ratcheting up pricing in order to profiteer all over the face of this thing. You're welcome.

So no, I won't be running to the ER for a swab. I'm going to be packing my little petri dishes masked as children into as many airports, planes, and crowded places as I can for the next 3 months, hoping that we get lucky and they brush-up next to you and sneeze all over the fucking place. I bet you have multiple doctors on speed dial that you pester daily, so it shouldn't be anything new, I guess. 

Nice, need investors?

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Grade of D as in David

Grade of D as in David 13253

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It seems that most of the analysis is looking at the CFR rate and total death number but is anyone else looking at the deaths compared to the total number of recoveries? You can't look at much data because until recently the spread has been primarily in four countries China South Korea Italy and Iran of which I don't know that I trust the Chinese and Iranian numbers.  In South Korea and Italy it looks like 3 are recovering for every one person dead. 

That doesn't sound good. 

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JesusSweatDuck

JesusSweatDuck 17781

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3 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

It seems that most of the analysis is looking at the CFR rate and total death number but is anyone else looking at the deaths compared to the total number of recoveries? You can't look at much data because until recently the spread has been primarily in four countries China South Korea Italy and Iran of which I don't know that I trust the Chinese and Iranian numbers.  In South Korea and Italy it looks like 3 are recovering for every one person dead. 

That doesn't sound good. 

We saw that in China as well.  It takes a lot longer for someone to recover than to die.  It will level off.

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Skipper

Skipper 6133

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14 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

 In South Korea and Italy it looks like 3 are recovering for every one person dead. 

That doesn't sound good. 

I've yet to see what the definition of "recovery" is.  But I have to think it's something other than "feeling better".   

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

It seems that most of the analysis is looking at the CFR rate and total death number but is anyone else looking at the deaths compared to the total number of recoveries? You can't look at much data because until recently the spread has been primarily in four countries China South Korea Italy and Iran of which I don't know that I trust the Chinese and Iranian numbers.  In South Korea and Italy it looks like 3 are recovering for every one person dead. 

That doesn't sound good. 

I don’t think anyone is claiming the recovered stat is at all reliable 

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I'm going to be packing my little petri dishes masked as children into as many airports, planes, and crowded places as I can for the next 3 months, hoping that we get lucky and they brush-up next to you and sneeze all over the fucking place. 

*CloseToJumpingContainment

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89649

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6 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

We saw that in China as well.  It takes a lot longer for someone to recover than to die.  It will level off.

Was going to look it up on the CDC site for the US- we only have 233 cases and 14 deaths, but somehow the CDC site continues to be less and less informative.   Not only did they remove how many are being tested (unofficial estimates are 2,000), but they removed the info on how many are recovered.   Alex Jones should be foaming at the mouth over this stuff.   

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Which I think is why the Saudis were being so proactive on the Mecca front.   They may claim to only have two cases, but they sure as hell have solid intel on what’s going on in Iran.  

The story about Iran not stamping Saudi passports would be funny if it weren't so believable. 

"Oh yeah? Well we're going to give the Covid to you and make it untraceable!"

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TXSG8R

TXSG8R 3362

Posted
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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Correct.

Also, we should already be mobilizing military medical resources.  We have the ability to set up functioning field hospitals.  Military medical personnel have a shitload of PPE (we are equipped to deal with NBC attacks).  The military is going to have significant medical equipment at hand, including ventilators.

If we were taking a comprehensive, national approach to managing this, we'd be doing a nationwide inventory of all available resources, anywhere.  Dragoon local health officials into getting a count from all local health providers, down to day surgery centers and nursing homes, of ventilators and oxygen supplies.  Do the same with the military.  Include any archaic equipment that's been mothballed.  Start working on the logistics of either constructing field hospitals, and/or repurposing existing structures to serve as care facilities.

And that's just on the medical treatment side.

If it's not time yet, it's damn near there -- ban large gatherings.  Sorry, sports and concerts, you're going to have to take a break.  Churches, you need to limit attendance, too, and stop all personal contact (first amendment concerns, sure, but police powers during a limited period for a limited purpose CAN trump those protections).  And there are other measures to be taken as well (we can learn from what other countries have done).

The target is slowing the spread so that our healthcare system can keep up with acute cases.  Period.  That's the only goal.  And get us to summer, when the transmission rate will likely slow.

CBRN PPE is much different than medical PPE.  Its not something doctors would want to work in for any extended periods, and doesnt really lend itself to decon between patients that would be necessary in an infectious zone.  Im not sure that the military is any really that much more prepared for a pandemic than the commercial side when it comes to PPE.  I do agree that they should be equipped to stand up temporary medical stations.  You would think that we would have plans for this kind of scenario that could be started, but articles like the one about Anniston Alabama linked earlier in the thread leads me to think that the government's plans were paper-drilled a decade ago and the government churn has rendered them outdated and useless.  There's a reason you want people to span across multiple administrations and keep continuity in place for key cabinets and organizations.  /no cr  

 

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Skipper

Skipper 6133

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4 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

  You would think that we would have plans for this kind of scenario that could be started  

 

Would leaking military planning temporary hospitals further spook the markets?  Then yeah, I think pretty safe bet we aren't doing it.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105095

Posted
Posted
Just now, Skipper said:

Would leaking military planning temporary hospitals further spook the markets?  Then yeah, I think pretty safe bet we aren't doing it.

This.  Our decision making is not being based on the most effective steps for pandemic response.  They are being based on likely effect on the markets.  That's just a plain reality, and the rest of us need to operate accordingly.

 

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Goredho

Goredho 17399

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Posted

All the numbers have to be treated with suspicion, because there are too many unknown unknowns.  How many untested carriers are out there?  How many deaths attributed to flu or pneumonia might have been this?  How many recovered are there that had this and never knew it?

But, in my opinion, currently unreliable numbers shouldn't result in us just saying "Fuck it, no point.  If Granny dies, she dies."  It means we need to improve our ability to measure the outbreak so that we have accurate data to base decisions on.  So we can learn from this to better handle the next pandemic if nothing else.

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21469

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

All the numbers have to be treated with suspicion, because there are too many unknown unknowns.  How many untested carriers are out there?  How many deaths attributed to flu or pneumonia might have been this?  How many recovered are there that had this and never knew it?

But, in my opinion, currently unreliable numbers shouldn't result in us just saying "Fuck it, no point.  If Granny dies, she dies."  It means we need to improve our ability to measure the outbreak so that we have accurate data to base decisions on.  So we can learn from this to better handle the next pandemic if nothing else.

 

Edited by conVINCEd
Funk, accidentally went CR.
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