Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Sbbruin 21894]

36 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

 

What will all the fatties who bounce from one sampler to another and then back around again do for sustenance?

[TXSG8R 3362]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Would leaking military planning temporary hospitals further spook the markets?  Then yeah, I think pretty safe bet we aren't doing it.

So lets not use our pandemic plans because then it looks like we are having a pandemic?  Markets are already spooked, and who knows if a competent response would have helped or hurt, but the markets should be a lower concern than spread and loss of life.  A good plan would have stages before martial law and military quarantines.  The first response for the cruise ship people in Anniston Alabama was fucking laughable.  Hopefully someone can repost, because its a WaPo article behind a paywall.  

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

For everyone who thinks the military is going ride to the rescue like Gandalf at Helm's Deep, i will remind you that not a single Chinook, Apache or Nightingale was seen in, around or over Nawlins after Katrina.  The only asset that made a visit was Air Force One.

But what happens when it isn't POC?

[Junior Miller 1502]

I wonder what level of heat kills this thing? So if you pick up take out and toss it in the oven at 400 for 5 to 10 min would that help? 

 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

7 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

When was Italy’s first day in the game “officially”? I feel like we’ll see a spike here in cases of deaths here very shortly but damn... we dwarf them population wise and their reports are disturbing af

"Natural causes"

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

2 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

For everyone who thinks the military is going ride to the rescue like Gandalf at Helm's Deep, i will remind you that not a single Chinook, Apache or Nightingale was seen in, around or over Nawlins after Katrina.  The only asset that made a visit was Air Force One.

The Coast Guard was fairly impressive but who really calls them military?

[Junior Miller 1502]

3 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

For everyone who thinks the military is going ride to the rescue like Gandalf at Helm's Deep, i will remind you that not a single Chinook, Apache or Nightingale was seen in, around or over Nawlins after Katrina.  The only asset that made a visit was Air Force One.

[LonghornJones 837]

For everyone who thinks the military is going ride to the rescue like Gandalf at Helm's Deep...

Nerd alert.

[Brisketexan 105371]

4 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

For everyone who thinks the military is going ride to the rescue like Gandalf at Helm's Deep, i will remind you that not a single Chinook, Apache or Nightingale was seen in, around or over Nawlins after Katrina.  The only asset that made a visit was Air Force One.

 

1 minute ago, Casual Encounter said:

The Coast Guard was fairly impressive but who really calls them military?

Gotta stand up for the Coasties here.  They were fucking badasses during Katrina.  Seriously, day-in, day-out, they do the fucking job, man.  But they ain't gonna save us now.  Nobody is.

[TXSG8R 3362]

2 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

For everyone who thinks the military is going ride to the rescue like Gandalf at Helm's Deep, i will remind you that not a single Chinook, Apache or Nightingale was seen in, around or over Nawlins after Katrina.  The only asset that made a visit was Air Force One.

False.  Our Blackhawks were flying General Honore and his staff around day one, and hooks were flying supplies around Nawlins and dropping sandbags in levees.  Well I guess mostly false, not sure what an Apache would have done, so you're right there.  

[Helobious 9464]

47 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

It seems that most of the analysis is looking at the CFR rate and total death number but is anyone else looking at the deaths compared to the total number of recoveries? You can't look at much data because until recently the spread has been primarily in four countries China South Korea Italy and Iran of which I don't know that I trust the Chinese and Iranian numbers.  In South Korea and Italy it looks like 3 are recovering for every one person dead. 

That doesn't sound good. 

There’s been a lot of talk already about how “recovered” is a useless and meaningless stat. Someone that tests positive, has mild or no symptoms, then gets sent home to recover on their own will never count as “recovered” if they don’t return to the hospital. But they will count as an infection.

[Loco 3754]

11 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

For everyone who thinks the military is going ride to the rescue like Gandalf at Helm's Deep

Still the best unused strip club name imho...

Edited March 6, 2020 by Loco

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

Just now, Loco said:

Still the best unused strip club name imho...

Can you imagine the security needed to protect those women from the horny, nerdy, virgins that would frequent that place?

Peep show/booth dances behind glass might work.

[Loco 3754]

1 minute ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Can you imagine the security needed to protect those women from the horny, nerdy, virgins that would frequent that place?

Peep show/booth dances behind glass might work.

Security...pfft  Those missle twisters would have those boys eating out of their hand.  Those nerds better have life lock

[Loco 3754]

8 minutes ago, Helobious said:

There’s been a lot of talk already about how “recovered” is a useless and meaningless stat. Someone that tests positive, has mild or no symptoms, then gets sent home to recover on their own will never count as “recovered” if they don’t return to the hospital. But they will count as an infection.

They also won't count as dead.  /nonaturalcauses      So unless these mathematicians are morons, it should work it's self out

[triplehorn 2664]

Except for the outlier numbers for 2 days when SK got on board w testing, today is the highest spike in newly confirmed cases globally since Feb. 5th.  And at 3.7k, we've still got half a day left.

[MissingInAction 25193]

NPR was just interviewing a 67 year old dude from the Diamond princes who is diagnosed and in quarantine. He said all he got was a scratchy throat and a cough following a 103 fever. Feels fine now but is still testing positive.  

[SmokeyTheBear 5565]

32 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

For everyone who thinks the military is going ride to the rescue like Gandalf at Helm's Deep, i will remind you that not a single Chinook, Apache or Nightingale was seen in, around or over Nawlins after Katrina.  The only asset that made a visit was Air Force One.

SIAP - https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-06-20-intl-hnk/h_883a0d3146f6c1549204e9d09060460c

Quote

Viruses spread more easily in cold weather than hot, which is why winter is peak influenza season.

While it has yet to be seen whether the coronavirus will recede as temperatures increase in the northern hemisphere (and cases in tropical Singapore and southern hemisphere Australia may suggest the virus isn't too sensitive to hot weather), some researchers have warned it could become a perennial winter threat.

Speaking at a Pentagon briefing Thursday, Nelson Michael, the director for infectious disease research at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, said that efforts to develop vaccines and an effective treatment plan might not be quick enough to wipe out the virus before the "second wave" next winter.

"This is a respiratory virus and they always give us trouble during cold weather, for obvious reasons. We’re all inside, the windows are closed, etcetera, so we typically call that the influenza or the flu season," Nelson said.

He predicted the coronavirus may behave like the flu and give us "less trouble as the weather warms up," but, he cautioned, it tends to come back when the weather gets cold again.

"We hope it doesn’t happen. If you remember SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), SARS came and went very quickly. We can’t count on that. We have to be ready that even if this epidemic begins to wane, we have to be ready for next winter when it may come back again."

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13523]

2 hours ago, Ellellelle said:

So how long were these Houstonians roaming free after returning from Egypt? There's so many new cases it's hard to keep up.

I've only read that they were in Egypt "last month", so 1-5 weeks? 

[closetojumping 62878]

23 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Except for the outlier numbers for 2 days when SK got on board w testing, today is the highest spike in newly confirmed cases globally since Feb. 5th.  And at 3.7k, we've still got half a day left.

Out of curiosity, do you not understand how math works, or are you being deliberately alarmist with this post? I mean, all of your posts are generally hyperbolic and alarmist, but is that driven by being a drama queen or legitimate ignorance? The denominator has shifted significantly over time. The growth factor has not only not jumped, but trended downward. The growth factor outside of China is still trending level or downward from 30 days ago to today. 

[InkaUtexas 26125]

 

[triplehorn 2664]

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 The growth factor outside of China is still trending level or downward from 30 days ago to today. 

You sure about that ? 

[InkaUtexas 26125]

Damn what a shitty place to be.....

 

[Skipper 6202]

Long term impact on Iran may be one of the most interesting things to follow if things continue to go south there.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

If I understood my spouse, one of the issues is that as they are mapping it (genetically) there is more than one strain. I believe he said that he was looking at some mapping software yesterday with a colleague and there is a mutation in Italy that is not the same as Wuhan? Conceivably, that could mean that more than one strain is present in the US as people returning to the US have been from different locations. Is that what you all are seeing? I forgot to ask him if that would change some of the statistics, but perhaps right now there are too many variables affecting the data?

[Loco 3754]

 

[Surly Bevo 25159]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The Italy numbers are a bit worrisome, as we are much more like them than South Korea. 

 

[Skipper 6202]

1 hour ago, TXSG8R said:

So lets not use our pandemic plans because then it looks like we are having a pandemic?  Markets are already spooked, and who knows if a competent response would have helped or hurt, but the markets should be a lower concern than spread and loss of life.  A good plan would have stages before martial law and military quarantines.  The first response for the cruise ship people in Anniston Alabama was fucking laughable.  Hopefully someone can repost, because its a WaPo article behind a paywall.  

I'm not arguing with your position.  I was just stating what I think the reality is.  But further discussion beyond that probably belongs on the other board.

[closetojumping 62878]

11 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

You sure about that ? 

Yes. If you've got some sort of revolutionary way of doing math, then please, show the world, starting with your next post. If you've got some sort of proprietary data set that is more reliable than what is publicly being published, and then tracked on worldometers.info, then again, by all means, help the rest of us out with the piercing insights. 

[EuroHorn 3268]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The Italy numbers are a bit worrisome, as we are much more like them than South Korea. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

15 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

If I understood my spouse, one of the issues is that as they are mapping it (genetically) there is more than one strain. I believe he said that he was looking at some mapping software yesterday with a colleague and there is a mutation in Italy that is not the same as Wuhan? Conceivably, that could mean that more than one strain is present in the US as people returning to the US have been from different locations. Is that what you all are seeing? I forgot to ask him if that would change some of the statistics, but perhaps right now there are too many variables affecting the data?

Washington, the state, has sequenced two different strains. It is being reported elsewhere there are two different strains with one for more virulent. 

[SimonBolivar 10959]

Researcher on NPR says that he expects that there are 1,000 to 2,000 cases in the Seattle region right now with that doubling in about a week or so.

[atomheartbevo 89808]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

When was Italy’s first day in the game “officially”? I feel like we’ll see a spike here in cases of deaths here very shortly but damn... we dwarf them population wise and their reports are disturbing af

They have a lot of olds.  

On February 24, they only had 229 cases, 26 hospitalized, and only 6 deaths   

[atomheartbevo 89808]

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

4000 people under voluntary quarantine in NYC? (per msnbc just now)

that seems worrisome 😐

2,500 yesterday.  

[El Diablo 4232]

Welp, my employer has implemented their pandemic plan. We were all asked to confirm our emergency contact info. Adios and farewell, Surly!

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

Damn what a shitty place to be.....
 

Wow...that’s probably the worst place to be in the country in that packed,infested lobby

[atomheartbevo 89808]

1 hour ago, TXSG8R said:

So lets not use our pandemic plans because then it looks like we are having a pandemic?  Markets are already spooked, and who knows if a competent response would have helped or hurt, but the markets should be a lower concern than spread and loss of life.  A good plan would have stages before martial law and military quarantines.  The first response for the cruise ship people in Anniston Alabama was fucking laughable.  Hopefully someone can repost, because its a WaPo article behind a paywall.  

We all agree with you, but Kudlow, the top economic adviser in the WH, made it clear last week that the market is the priority, and he’s making the rounds this morning.    When he’s out there saying this “Although frankly, so far it looks relatively contained” and “80% of the people who get this infection come out just fine. So, I -- I don't know what adjective you want to use but I still think it's -- we have this pretty well in hand.” It’s hard not to imagine what’s driving things, compared to what’s coming out of the governments of South Korea or Italy.   

Not going CR, that’s what Kudlow is out there on the networks saying .

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[texasdago 7580]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They have a lot of olds.  

On February 24, they only had 229 cases, 26 hospitalized, and only 6 deaths   

Yup.  22% of the population in Italy is 65 years or older.  Long life expectancy, low birth rates.  It will be challenging there.  28% in Japan! About 17% elderly here.  About 15% in South Korea.

[triplehorn 2664]

4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Yes. If you've got some sort of revolutionary way of doing math, then please, show the world, starting with your next post. If you've got some sort of proprietary data set that is more reliable than what is publicly being published, and then tracked on worldometers.info, then again, by all means, help the rest of us out with the piercing insights. 

This has good hour to hour data:  Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

China has been sitting on 80k cases this week, while outside of China has blown up by 11-12k new cases since 3/1.  Look at the graph  in the lower right corner of the link, expand it and use the 3 options at the bottom to look at "daily cases" and then "new confirmed".  What you can appreciate is a linear slope which speaks to rate of new cases/day.  China spiked in mid/late January then started a level/downslope.  What it shows over the last two weeks is the global curve outside of China and today we're essentially at the rate of new cases per day that China was at its peak, and it sure looks like an up-slope over the last two weeks, i.e. infection rate is increasing outside of China.  Yes you can point to fuzzy incomplete stats and the effect of increased testing, but the big picture view that the graph depicts makes sense and is generally also consistent with what's being reported here in the US. 

I was hopeful a week ago that Covid-19 was actually already pretty widespread in the US over the past month and we simply didn't recognize it, which in it;s own way is kind of reassuring, but unfortunately I don't think it was nearly that prevalent, or as prevalent as it's about to be.  

 

[Ellellelle 314]

We're being told to avoid non essential domestic travel. Pac12 is also evaluating what they're going to do with student athlete travel so we might except some upheaval in march madness.

[Bartles 769]

Pac-12 mandating their teams play no more than one game in NCAAs

[Bevo 13601]

Just now, Bartles said:

Pac-12 mandating their teams play no more than one game in NCAAs

Does that require a mandate? I thought it was pretty much understood.

[closetojumping 62878]

 

24 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

This has good hour to hour data:  Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

China has been sitting on 80k cases this week, while outside of China has blown up by 11-12k new cases since 3/1.  Look at the graph  in the lower right corner of the link, expand it and use the 3 options at the bottom to look at "daily cases" and then "new confirmed".  What you can appreciate is a linear slope which speaks to rate of new cases/day.  China spiked in mid/late January then started a level/downslope.  What it shows over the last two weeks is the global curve outside of China and today we're essentially at the rate of new cases per day that China was at its peak, and it sure looks like an up-slope over the last two weeks, i.e. infection rate is increasing outside of China.  Yes you can point to fuzzy incomplete stats and the effect of increased testing, but the big picture view that the graph depicts makes sense and is generally also consistent with what's being reported here in the US. 

I was hopeful a week ago that Covid-19 was actually already pretty widespread in the US over the past month and we simply didn't recognize it, which in it;s own way is kind of reassuring, but unfortunately I don't think it was nearly that prevalent, or as prevalent as it's about to be.  

 

So you don't know what a growth factor is, then. Got it. We're talking about two different things. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#cases-growth-factor

[Nice Guy Eddie 13523]

I also think its fair to say that the actual infected rate is impossible to really know, and its most likely higher by an order of magnitude.

For example, the Harris County cases all apparently caught their coronavirus during an Egypt trip. Right now, Egypt is reporting that 15 people have the coronavirus. Is it likely that several Harris County residents just happened to come in contact with 1 of those 15? Probably more like 1,500 or 15,000 have it in Egypt. And since we don't have realistic infection rates, who knows how this is growing. or not growing.

[clapclapclap 9000]

https://www.cnbctv18.com/technology/samsung-suspends-smartphone-production-in-south-korea-due-to-coronavirus-5440291.htm

Samsung suspends smartphone production in South Korea due to coronavirus

Updated : March 06, 2020 04:42 PM IST

It shut down the factory in the southeastern city of Gumi after a worker tested positive for coronavirus.

Samsung said the plant will be closed till Saturday, while the floor where the employee worked will be closed off till Sunday, Yonhap news agency reported.

Samsung's premium smartphones, Galaxy S20 and Galaxy Note 10, were being produced entirely in Gumi.

 

Looks like Gumi bears the brunt of this.

 

Edit:   So if you have a Galaxy Note phone, aren't you increasing your risk?  It might be easy to clean the S pen, but what about that narrow hole?  Ever thought about it?

Edited March 6, 2020 by clapclapclap

[Deej 76935]

2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

https://www.cnbctv18.com/technology/samsung-suspends-smartphone-production-in-south-korea-due-to-coronavirus-5440291.htm

Samsung suspends smartphone production in South Korea due to coronavirus

Updated : March 06, 2020 04:42 PM IST

It shut down the factory in the southeastern city of Gumi after a worker tested positive for coronavirus.

Samsung said the plant will be closed till Saturday, while the floor where the employee worked will be closed off till Sunday, Yonhap news agency reported.

Samsung's premium smartphones, Galaxy S20 and Galaxy Note 10, were being produced entirely in Gumi.

 

Looks like Gumi bears the brunt of this.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I also think its fair to say that the actual infected rate is impossible to really know, and its most likely higher by an order of magnitude.

For example, the Harris County cases all apparently caught their coronavirus during an Egypt trip. Right now, Egypt is reporting that 15 people have the coronavirus. Is it likely that several Harris County residents just happened to come in contact with 1 of those 15? Probably more like 1,500 or 15,000 have it in Egypt. And since we don't have realistic infection rates, who knows how this is growing. or not growing.

I don’t think anyone honest can really say the number of confirmed cases is relevant to much of anything without widespread testing.  

[Trey3216 15358]

10 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

https://www.cnbctv18.com/technology/samsung-suspends-smartphone-production-in-south-korea-due-to-coronavirus-5440291.htm

Samsung suspends smartphone production in South Korea due to coronavirus

Updated : March 06, 2020 04:42 PM IST

It shut down the factory in the southeastern city of Gumi after a worker tested positive for coronavirus.

Samsung said the plant will be closed till Saturday, while the floor where the employee worked will be closed off till Sunday, Yonhap news agency reported.

Samsung's premium smartphones, Galaxy S20 and Galaxy Note 10, were being produced entirely in Gumi.

 

Looks like Gumi bears the brunt of this.

 

Edit:   So if you have a Galaxy Note phone, aren't you increasing your risk?  It might be easy to clean the S pen, but what about that narrow hole?  Ever thought about it?

But is it sideways? 

[smuggs 9353]

8 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Edit:   So if you have a Galaxy Note phone, aren't you increasing your risk?  It might be easy to clean the S pen, but what about that narrow hole?  Ever thought about it?

I think about that narrow hole probably 50, 60 times a day... I think about that narrow hole pretty much constantly.

 

[Skipper 6202]

A little off topic, and I'm not saying this is a bad thing, but exactly how can state govts (i.e., California) unilaterally mandate that insurance not charge for coronavirus testing.  Is California basically telling the insurance company they are eating the costs?  How does that work?