Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[atomheartbevo 89,656]

3 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

 

He’s some doctor who studied epidemiology at Harvard, what does he know, amirite?

[atomheartbevo 89,656]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Wish they would tell us how many people have been tested in Texas. I hope I’m wrong but I guess the number is very small. Texas would seem to be the a state that only wants to test someone that is sick AND was recently in 1 of the 4 countries that have been hit hard.

and according to The Atlantic, Texas refuses to disclose the number of tests that have been performed. 

Yeah, this rings hollow.  City of Austin tried this shit, claiming that they can’t release the numbers being tested.  But they can say if somebody is negative, like they did yesterday, or they can say if it’s positive. 

They can’t say if they tested 10 people.  But they can say if one tested negative.  

JenniferLawrenceOK.gif

[2300 Nueces 163]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

People blowing this off now, trying to downplay it, are going to be doing so when it hits 10,000 a day, and starts impacting their lives directly.  

Yep, but there is NOTHING that can be done at this point.  Our society is too open and our government is a cluster fuck.  It's every person for him/herself.  Time to carry on as usual but make sure to not miss any interest payments, tax payments, jury duty, traffic fines, permit fees, toll fees/fines etc.... or you will be punished without mercy.  The punishment/enforcement wing of our government runs like a well oiled/timed 67 Chevy.

Edited March 7, 2020 by 2300 Nueces

[Okie State 3,818]

More people than normal at that time of night. Its usualy just my drunk ass buying too much lube.

I ended up going right after I posted that. Nobody there this morning. Plenty of lube.

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

Well that’s one way to stop the spread.

I won't be surprised if we learn someday that the Chinese authorities have just been taking positives into the woods and executing them in a Babi Yar kind of way. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

25 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Line to get in to Costco on Richmond is about 75 yards long. Glad I’m just here for some produce. People are losing their minds. There are no carts

I should probably drive by the one in Sugar Land just for shits and giggles and get a firsthand view of the local panic.

My wife still likes shopping there but I quit going years ago because of the continuous hoards of people and the presumption that everyone exiting the store is a shoplifter. 

[Nonbryan 173]

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’m about to hit costco for some perishable items, which should still be prevalent. Should be interesting to see what it looks like. 

Sat am at Costco.  You are f@!%ng nuts!!!!

Edited March 7, 2020 by Nonbryan

[triplehorn 2,664]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This.  In the area where I live, within a 10-minute there’s a couple of large hospitals and administrative complexes, a shit-ton of offices and private practices, a large heart hospital, and next to our neighborhood park, a long-term care facility.  

At my kid’s school, a ton of the parents work at these various facilities, and I have talked to plenty of doctors, nurses, admins, etc. over the past few weeks.  

I have yet to hear any of them say anything remotely  like “yep, we are ready.”   Instead, all I hear is criticism of the city, state, and federal government, and how little prepared we are, and how it wouldn’t take many cases to overwhelm a lot of facilities.  

And I’ve heard a whole lot of “we should be testing a lot more, but we aren’t.”

I have yet to hear anybody say that we shouldn’t be testing.  

Absent a coherent fed response, state and local measures are key and will vary.  From where I sit, things are moving:

And actual coordinated case directed testing happening:

 

[atomheartbevo 89,656]

South Korea is not testing 10,000 plus a day for shits and giggles.  And trying to increase that number.  

We should be testing, because every person you can find, doesn’t mean you’ve stopped them from spreading already, but it means  you might keep that person from spreading it to one more person, who then doesn’t spread it to 10 others, and so on   

I don’t know at this point if it’s incompetence or not wanting the public to know the numbers, but the whole testing thing stinks, and how they are counting stinks.  The President of the United States is out there on national TV saying he cares more about the numbers doubling than getting people off of a ship and into treatment.   There’s so much going on with that, just kind-bottling.   I’ll leave it at that - his statements speak for themselves.  

But when you see a healthcare provider saying it’s endemic and they see no point in testing and the numbers don’t matter, that’s not about their patients, that’s about trying to salvage their reputation and possible financial responsibility   

The families of those folks are starting to scream bloody murder, and that shit is going to be out there.   It’s a lot harder to cover up these days   The media loves grieving families   

This head-in-the-sand approach is not logical, given our lack of open beds to handle this.  

Testing is not about stopping it, it’s about getting it slowed down so our healthcare system can cope.  Austin could probably handle a few hundred cases over a month, given those folks need 2-3 weeks in the hospital.  We can’t handle a few hundred cases a week.  

And we won’t take the hard measures needed to try and stop it, so we’ve got to try and slow it down and buy our hospitals time.   And that means testing to get as many people isolated at home as we can.  

[B00M 6,415]

1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

Testing is still very important even if we're past contain

 

 

For real you people saying to stop testing are just ignorant. Lots of people still think this isn't a big deal and dont get why SXSW was cancelled. 

St. Louis cancelled social gatherings immediately when Spanish flu was detected. Philly down played it. Testing and social distancing is the right thing to do.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,559]

2 minutes ago, B00M said:

For real you people saying to stop testing are just ignorant. Lots of people still think this isn't a big deal and dont get why SXSW was cancelled. 

St. Louis cancelled social gatherings immediately when Spanish flu was detected. Philly down played it. Testing and social distancing is the right thing to do.

The Philadelphia line looks like the Aggy football championship hopes timeline each season.

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

Maybe our government doesn't care if old people in managed care die off a little faster than the norm...I say that mainly tongue and cheek (although it's Trump so you never fucking know) but if you look in to the deep dark places in your soul you know that there are a lot of issues a few less people in those situations helps mitigate.  A constant joke around Surly is that we need a good purge...welp.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Surly Bevo

[Shaggybevo 353]

Just got back from HEB. They were open. Plenty of food, disinfectants, toilet paper, and hardly anyone there. Randall's was the same.

[triplehorn 2,664]

get used to it

 

 

[SydneyCarton 48,082]

19 minutes ago, Nonbryan said:

Sat am at Costco.  You are f@!%ng nuts!!!!

Dude that’s the best time to go. For me at least. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

6 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

get used to it

 

 

Oh thats comforting 

[RollLeft 5,044]

2 hours ago, Hanrahan said:

Well there’s a confirmed case at my church and I’m on day 10 of an upper respiratory illness so I could be the odds favorite to win the Surly Covid 19 sweepstakes. It bounced off my 8 year old in like 3 days too.

St. Cecilia in Memorial?  If not they to have a confirmed case that attended mass the other day.  Stay home if your sick people.  

[Somnio 751]

7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

get used to it

 

 

But the sunshine pumpers on here have been telling us we we're just a bunch of idiots, and this virus ain't shit.

But who to believe?!?  Shaggy experts, or the fear monger on the video?!?

[triplehorn 2,664]

I like seeing this daily updated site from Oregon DHS accounting for actual numbers of those being actively tested and monitored and instructions/other criteria to consider

Also posted there: 

The Oregon State Public Health Laboratory continues to test for COVID-19 in Oregon. In addition, private labs operating in the state have begun testing for the virus.

Oregonians who are seeking a test for COVID-19 should call their doctor.

OHA has identified people at greatest risk from exposure to COVID-19. These groups include:

• People who traveled, in the last 14 days, from a country where COVID-19 is circulating.
• Anyone who had close, prolonged contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case in the last 14 days.
• Anyone who doesn’t have an epidemiological link to COVID-19, such as the above examples, but who meet the following criteria: 
  • Clinical illness requiring hospitalization.
  • Evidence of lower respiratory viral infection (viral pneumonia).
  • A negative influenza test.

 

[Hagbard Celine 10,854]

On 3/6/2020 at 9:31 AM, bolverk said:

For those interested in a map showing where cases are popping up, I highly recommend this one from Johns Hopkins:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

excellent resource.

SK numbers don't make sense:

confirmed 7041

dead 44

recovered 135

active 6862

[HenryJames 66,046]

 

[Goredho 17,399]

2 minutes ago, Somnio said:

But the sunshine pumpers on here have been telling us we we're just a bunch of idiots, and this virus ain't shit.

But who to believe?!?  Shaggy experts, or the fear monger on the video?!?

Coronavirus going 13-0 this year!  Hook ‘em!

[Revolution512 1,487]

4 minutes ago, Somnio said:

But the sunshine pumpers on here have been telling us we we're just a bunch of idiots, and this virus ain't shit.

But who to believe?!?  Shaggy experts, or the fear monger on the video?!?

Neither

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

The interesting thing about stopping or slowing or not doing testing is that I think the way any panic actually calms down is if the reality is a fuckload more people have this than has been reported/confirmed and the fatality rate starts to get put in a diminished context.  Can only really accomplish that by jacking the numerator way up....which is gonna take testing.  

Now for the short term it will suck because if you got it you are going to be treated like a leper BUT over time that  could diminish as more becomes known and if the CFR goes down.

It doesn't mean that then people should go on like nothing BUT it likely would help the average 37 year old stay at home wife deal with her anxious need to hoard Purell and Merlot.  

[conVINCEd 21,469]

1 minute ago, Goredho said:

Coronavirus going 13-0 this year!  Hook ‘em!

They got LSU’s offense, Bama’s defense, and their opponent is coached by Charlie Strong.

[HenryJames 66,046]

13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Dude that’s the best time to go. For me at least. 

HEB before 7am or gtfo.

[Somnio 751]

1 minute ago, Revolution512 said:

Neither

That's probably the best advice.

[Brisketexan 105,103]

[mention=593]Brisketexan[/mention] we’re starting to see some larger scale, but predictable, reactions. Specifically, event cancellations and public recognition. Are you sticking with your projections?

Yep, pretty much. Except we have zero coordinated federal response here (seriously, they might as well not exist), so it could be even worse than I expect.

AISD just cancelled all exchange programs (we had a German student coming in three weeks), postponed till fall. And again, this is actually just the beginning. The social and economic effects will be significant.

Testing is still very important even if we're past contain
 
 

And absolutely this. This has to be our strategy. But we’re on our own - it’s up to state and local authorities.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

37 minutes ago, B00M said:

For real you people saying to stop testing are just ignorant. Lots of people still think this isn't a big deal and dont get why SXSW was cancelled. 

St. Louis cancelled social gatherings immediately when Spanish flu was detected. Philly down played it. Testing and social distancing is the right thing to do.

Hmmm, I wonder which line will represent Houston?

Mayor on why the rodeo must go on:

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by clapclapclap

[Somnio 751]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But we’re on our own - it’s up to state and local authorities.

 

I mean it certainly appears to be the case.  It is shocking to realize. 

Even if you believe in small, limited government I would think coordinating a plan to deal with a global pandemic would fall under the federal government's duties.

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

9 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

The interesting thing about stopping or slowing or not doing testing is that I think the way any panic actually calms down is if the reality is a fuckload more people have this than has been reported/confirmed and the fatality rate starts to get put in a diminished context.  Can only really accomplish that by jacking the numerator way up....which is gonna take testing.  

Now for the short term it will suck because if you got it you are going to be treated like a leper BUT over time that  could diminish as more becomes known and if the CFR goes down.

It doesn't mean that then people should go on like nothing BUT it likely would help the average 37 year old stay at home wife deal with her anxious need to hoard Purell and Merlot.  

I think you mean jacking the denominator way up (deaths over cases), but otherwise I agree with your assessment. If it has been going around and lots of people have/had it without getting seriously sick or dying, then the panic would likely subside. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

Just now, Somnio said:

Even if you believe in small, limited government I would think coordinating a plan to deal with a global pandemic would fall under the federal government's duties.

100% agree with that. 

[Hagbard Celine 10,854]

23 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm not suggesting that we shouldn't try to slow it down, I'm only saying that massive testing would not lead to containment.  

Getting to R0 less than 1 is the strategic long-term goal otherwise fuck it all.  We don't still have the Spanish Flu running around.  It eventually was contained.

Slowing the spread to save the healthcare system has been stated over and over and over as the #1 goal right now and asymptomatic spreaders are the #1 problem that will prevent that goal.

[BrickHorn 18,221]

1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

We don't still have the Spanish Flu running around.  It eventually was contained.

...by surrounding the flu with 100,000,000 dead bodies?

[triplehorn 2,664]

 

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

Joke's on all you hoarders! Not even Costco is safe now.

[woohorn 1,131]

This thing is racing through nursing homes, one of the least visited places in the US thanks to our culture of imprisoning our elders.

They shouldn't have done it to their elders. Maybe you can be the one to break the cycle...

[RollLeft 5,044]

3 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

 

Boomer!

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

I think you mean jacking the denominator way up (deaths over cases), but otherwise I agree with your assessment. If it has been going around and lots of people have/had it without getting seriously sick or dying, then the panic would likely subside. 

Yea. I was told there would be no math

[Goredho 17,399]

1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

Testing is still very important even if we're past contain

 

 

Other reasons testing is important:

1.  To identify common characteristics among those who test positive to be able to advise who is most at risk, who might want to stay at home vs go to the Longhorn season opener, etc..,

2.  This is not our last viral outbreak.  If we understand the characteristics and measurables of this one, we can better identify, assess and react to those in the future.

It is never a bad idea to have more data and knowledge about a problem (this coronavirus) or classes of problems (viral outbreak and pandemic).  Especially when this class of problems has a future potential to threaten life as we know it.  This is bad, the next one could be much worse.  It might be goodbye honey, goodbye junior, goodbye bro instead of just goodbye mom.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Goredho

[Pato del Muerto 52,490]

This pain will all be worthwhile if close talkers are eliminated by death or new habits. 
 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

10 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

 

Maine is the only one on that list that would shock anybody 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,091]

24 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Joke's on all you hoarders! Not even Costco is safe now.

Is she touching her nose with the glove? Kind of defeats the purpose...

Edited March 7, 2020 by Casual Encounter
Chunky girl is going to have a heat stroke. Sorry Vic.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Maine is the only one on that list that would shock anybody 

Ohio is most shocking as The Cleveland Clinic is one of the nations top 5 research hospitals thanks to Case Western,  plus tOSU has a really big research hospital, and Cinci usually gets top marks for best overall hospital care in the nation.

Edited March 7, 2020 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

1 minute ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Ohio is most shocking as The Cleveland Clinic is one of the nations top 5 research hospitals thanks to Case Western,  plus tOSU has a really big research hospital, and Cinci usually gets top marks for best overall hospital care in the nation.

*little research was put into that post, just going off of the status of residents from those states

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,236]

This is so stupid. It is clear the panic is overblown. Australia has it well contained in their hot weather, which we should be getting in the next month in most places. 

[triplehorn 2,664]

Spoilering this to save space --> math fxn wrt ICU admissions and CFR as fxn of health system capacity:

 

Spoiler

 

 

[GreenspointTexas 9,600]

8 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Spoilering this to save space --> math fxn wrt ICU admissions and CFR as fxn of health system capacity:

 

  Hide contents

 

 

Water is wet

 

like i said, 2% mortality for this thing is a joke

[Hank Scorpio 17,729]

Everyone on this board should be immune