Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Pato del Muerto 52,490]

33 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’ve been to Maine and I’m not shocked

Well I’ve never been to Maine, but I kinda like the music 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

 
Also just in per BNO:  "Washington state reports 22 new cases of coronavirus and 3 new deaths, raising total to 102 cases and 16 dead"

Annnd this is why some of us have stockpiled some groceries

[RollLeft 5,044]

1 hour ago, Casual Encounter said:

Since we’re just posting random people’s accounts as news:

“I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared. 

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil.  I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and  strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess. 

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even 
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession. 

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it.  Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous. 

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

#washurhands #geturflushot #respect #patiencenotpanic”

Mack is a Dr. now?

[B00M 6,415]

2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This is so stupid. It is clear the panic is overblown.

To who? Seemingly every expert disagrees with you.

2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Australia has it well contained

False. A Dr had it and forced the closure of a clinic. They have dozens of confirmed cases there now. It's spreading quietly and exponentially just like every where else. 

2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

contained in their hot weather, which we should be getting in the next month in most places. 

It's assumed that it will, but it's yet to be determined if hot weather actually slows the spread. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by B00M

[DaysOff 7,947]

[triplehorn 2,664]

statistical target ----> cut 80% of interactions:

Spoiler

 

 

so, move to Maine ?

 

[StruggleBus 3,922]

21 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

 

Also just in per BNO:  "Washington state reports 22 new cases of coronavirus and 3 new deaths, raising total to 102 cases and 16 dead"

This is why our inadequate testing is retarded. People see 16 dead out of a hundred and freak out.

[Bigbend1812 12,915]

43 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

New York tells Washington state to hold their beer

 

[SimonBolivar 10,958]

9 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

 

She's seen the numbers for those under 10 and DGAF...granny gave shit Christmas gifts anyway 

[conVINCEd 21,469]

10 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

 

If she survives this thing she’s got a future in porn.

[GRHorn 105]

Here’s an interesting talk I found shared yesterday on twitter. No idea if it’s been shared on here yet. Can’t keep up with thread. Replicating as fast as the virus. A Johns Hopkins ID doc specializing in pandemics and addressing them. I’d recommend watching the whole thing. You know you were gonna spend 40 minutes online today anyway, but some key points. 

In his opinion, containment was impossible. By the time it was realized we had a novel virus, of higher severity, spread by respiratory means it was likely in multiple countries already. 

China’s draconian response was futile and mostly an overreaction to how poorly they handled SARS in 02-03. Has, in his opinion, set a poor example for the rest of the world. Measures are not going to be successful and the panic they cause is more harmful. (I did not know that full history and helps explain to me China’s reaction which has always been the part that concerned me the most.)

Says we essentially already have a pandemic. Calls it mild to moderate strength. 

Wearing masks around town if you aren’t sick is pointless. 

Will be endemic from now on. Should lessen in summer, then return in fall/winter. 

 Not a quickly mutating virus, so relatively speaking should be able to develop viable therapies. 

Again, in his opinion quarantines are useless

 

 

[triplehorn 2,664]

4 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

statistical target ----> cut 80% of interactions:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Just to emphasize, the above is a mathematical epidemiological explanation as to why social distancing works with this bug.  So what is happening in Northern Italy today, and what the China did is not irrational panicked behavior.  It's sound, smart, and works.

[triplehorn 2,664]

I haven't watched the above video GRH just linked,  but evidently it offers an opinion at odds with the epidemiological statistical analysis I just linked.  So don't know what the rationale is from the vid yet. 

Key distinction: there also may be a fundamental difference in what each is talking about wrt "reducing social contact by 80%" vs. "quarantining" which also may include different envisioned outcomes.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,091]

6 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

If she survives this thing she’s got a future in porn.

Too soon.

[ChiTownDoc 21,152]

10 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Here’s an interesting talk I found shared yesterday on twitter. No idea if it’s been shared on here yet. Can’t keep up with thread. Replicating as fast as the virus. A Johns Hopkins ID doc specializing in pandemics and addressing them. I’d recommend watching the whole thing. You know you were gonna spend 40 minutes online today anyway, but some key points. 

In his opinion, containment was impossible. By the time it was realized we had a novel virus, of higher severity, spread by respiratory means it was likely in multiple countries already. 

China’s draconian response was futile and mostly an overreaction to how poorly they handled SARS in 02-03. Has, in his opinion, set a poor example for the rest of the world. Measures are not going to be successful and the panic they cause is more harmful. (I did not know that full history and helps explain to me China’s reaction which has always been the part that concerned me the most.)

Says we essentially already have a pandemic. Calls it mild to moderate strength. 

Wearing masks around town if you aren’t sick is pointless. 

Will be endemic from now on. Should lessen in summer, then return in fall/winter. 

 Not a quickly mutating virus, so relatively speaking should be able to develop viable therapies. 

Again, in his opinion quarantines are useless

 

 

I’m off to booze at the pool so not watching now but one thing is very odd - everyone isolates flu patients.  Is he saying don’t even do that?  Wtf?

Oh and signing out our CME hours I asked how many no showed.  She said 4-5 docs out of 250ish.  Same as every other year.  Nobody panicking on the doctors side.  

[triplehorn 2,664]

Re the vid GRH just posted, he answers a question at the 32 min mark about quarantine.  It's important to note he focuses on the "draconian" and "authoritarian" aspects of it being bad. The only rationale he offered was that since it involves respiratory spread, it won't work.  JMO, but that explanation isn't convincing.  The statistical analysis above suggests that reducing social contacts by 80% should get us to R naught, where we need to be. 

He can criticize heavy handed authoritarian methods, but they appear to be working convincingly in China right about now.  Does the US need to employ that level of heavy handedness?  I don't think so.  Our population density is way less, we're digitally connected, and mostly can do this, I believe.

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

19 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

If she survives this thing she’s got a future in porn.

[GRHorn 105]

19 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m off to booze at the pool so not watching now but one thing is very odd - everyone isolates flu patients.  Is he saying don’t even do that?  Wtf?

Oh and signing out our CME hours I asked how many no showed.  She said 4-5 docs out of 250ish.  Same as every other year.  Nobody panicking on the doctors side.  

No he isn’t against isolating patients. He’s against self-quarantining or locking down cities or keeping people on a boat for a month. It’s gonna be everywhere anyway in his opinion. 

[BLKNSTY 289]

The people that feel safe and don’t mind at all being potential superspreaders are beginning to piss me off. 
Is a little common sense and respect for fellow humans too much to ask?

Ok Boomer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[atomheartbevo 89,656]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

No he isn’t against isolating patients. He’s against self-quarantining or locking down cities or keeping people on a boat for a month. It’s gonna be everywhere anyway in his opinion. 

So we should just completely overwhelm our hospitals and healthcare system, and tell the olds to go fuck themselves since everybody will get it under his plan.  Brilliant.  

[Junior Miller 1,502]

1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

Now this does make me feel better. Some good points Ill share from the WHO report:

***Let me state again, this is a report from the World Health Organization and lends far more credibility than the lady in SK scared to death she is living in End Times, or the doctor on TV saying this is the scariest disease he has ever seen in his life***

If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%.

Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been steadily declining (shown here as a graph) with now only 329 new diagnoses within the last day - one month ago it was around 3,000 a day. "This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real,"

Your likelihood to die: Some people who are in an age group read the fatality rate and think this is their personal likelihood that they will if they get infected. No, because all the other risk factors also apply. Men in this that age group will more likely die than women, people with preexisting conditions more than healthy people, and people in overcrowded hospitals more than those in hospitals where they get the care they need.

"COVID-19 is spreading with astonishing speed; COVID-19 outbreaks in any setting have very serious consequences; and there is now strong evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce and even interrupt transmission.

 

• Age: The younger you are, the less likely you are to be infected and the less likely you are to fall seriously ill if you do get infected:

• The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.

•  Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread. // This means getting it by breathing the same air as someone who sneezed or coughed is quite low.

Age	% of population	% of infected	Fatality
0-9	12.0%	0,9%	0 as of now
10-19	11.6%	1.2%	0.2%
20-29	13.5%	8.1%	0.2%
30-39	15.6%	17.0%	0.2%
40-49	15.6%	19.2%	0.4%
50-59	15.0%	22.4%	1.3%
60-69	10.4%	19.2%	3.6%
70-79	4.7%	8.8%	8.0%
80+	1.8%	3.2%	14.8%

What about the 10-20 percent with bad enough hypoxemia that required incubation and external oxygen for 10 to 21 days to survive? 

Also the China cases slowing down can be attributed to China basically shutting it's country down to a level only a totalitarian regime can get away with. That level isn't happening here but that doesn't mean we shouldn't shut off large gatherings of people until we know exactly what we're dealing with. A huge problem is the fed thumbing its own ass for 2 months looking to fuck this up however possible instead of actually getting on the ball to get tests out everywhere possible. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,511]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So we should just completely overwhelm our hospitals and healthcare system, and tell the olds to go fuck themselves since everybody will get it under his plan.  Brilliant.  

IMHO people should quarantine themselves and stay away from older people while they’re sick. But everyone just can’t stay home for months hoping not to catch it. That doesn’t make it disappear.

[ChiTownDoc 21,152]

11 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

No he isn’t against isolating patients. He’s against self-quarantining or locking down cities or keeping people on a boat for a month. It’s gonna be everywhere anyway in his opinion. 

Not sure I agree with him but thanks for clarifying.  

[GRHorn 105]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

So we should just completely overwhelm our hospitals and healthcare system, and tell the olds to go fuck themselves since everybody will get it under his plan.  Brilliant.  

No. He talks about how we need to increase the resiliency of our healthcare system, how now is the time for all local systems to begin planning how to handle it.

He is more in the camp of let’s get ready to handle it, rather than how do we stop it. That train has sailed, as Austin Powers would say. Again, just one man’s opinion but I found it compelling. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,152]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

IMHO people should quarantine themselves and stay away from older people while they’re sick. But everyone just can’t stay home for months hoping not to catch it. That doesn’t make it disappear.

Yes.  Just use some common sense.  It seems the doc in GR video is being overly casual about some common sense tactics that would help.  But he definitely is an expert and I’m not so not totally discounting what he’s saying.  

[GRHorn 105]

My hope is we get to warmer weather and slower spread of the disease and use that period to allocate resources more appropriately. Ship the N95 masks to nursing homes. Allocate tests for healthcare workers at those facilities and other places where elderly populations are more likely to be in contact. Outside of the effects in the elderly, that it does seem to really fuck up, it doesn’t look that severe compared to other diseases. Then hold on until 12-18 months out when there’s a usable vaccine. 
 

I was more of an alarmist initially, but I’m coming around to the position that this disease while novel and more severe in some populations can and should be fought without massive panic and disruption to society. 

[futureman 22,454]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The people that feel safe and don’t mind at all being potential superspreaders are beginning to piss me off. 
Is a little common sense and respect for fellow humans too much to ask?

yeah nobody cares what pisses you off. 

[Jive Turkey 12,594]

 

[ButtFumble 5,172]

well this is one way to lower deaths from the virus...put the sick in a collapsing hotel

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hotel-collapse-traps-70-eastern-china-154017056.html

[Pato del Muerto 52,490]

35 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

 

Ok Boomer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Not even close. Almost millennial. I’m just aware that I’m not the only person on the planet. 

[BrickHorn 18,220]

16 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes.  Just use some common sense.  It seems the doc in GR video is being overly casual about some common sense tactics that would help.  But he definitely is an expert and I’m not so not totally discounting what he’s saying.  

He said some things that caused me to doubt his expertise.  For example, at one point he implied R0 = 1 means you only “infect yourself.”  Pretty sure that is incorrect.

[Underdog 28,616]

4 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This is so stupid. It is clear the panic is overblown. Australia has it well contained in their hot weather, which we should be getting in the next month in most places. 

They've been through enough of late, they can sit this one out. 

[Loco 3,752]

It's hilarious that some posters are talking about the ridiculous corona virus panic.   I haven't seen a single person panicking about the virus...  not in a store, restaurant, gas station, the beach, bars...

I think there are a bunch of folks who want to pretend everything is normal and not to pretend everything is normal = panic.

 

[4th&Five 41,526]

2 minutes ago, Loco said:

It's hilarious that some posters are talking about the ridiculous corona virus panic.   I haven't seen a single person panicking about the virus...  not in a store, restaurant, gas station, the beach, bars...

I think there are a bunch of folks who want to pretend everything is normal and not to pretend everything is normal = panic.

 

Nope. Get off the internet and it like it doesn’t exist. Good luck telling people to self quarantine. 

[Underdog 28,616]

1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

statistical target ----> cut 80% of interactions:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

so, move to Maine ?

 

No venomous snakes in Maine. 

[Loco 3,752]

Just now, Underdog said:

No venomous snakes in Maine. 

counter point they have bears

 

also congrats you lucky mofo...   18pt comeback in the 2nd half.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Loco

[VABuckeye 2,472]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well I’ve never been to Maine, but I kinda like the music 

Say the ladies are insane there,

and they sure know how to use it

[GRHorn 105]

10 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

He said some things that caused me to doubt his expertise.  For example, at one point he implied R0 = 1 means you only “infect yourself.”  Pretty sure that is incorrect.

I’m guessing he misspoke there. He has the credentials.
 

It’s kind of like when you tell new trainees how long you drop the patties in the deep fryer. They know you mean the fries. No one questions your knowledge. 

[triplehorn 2,664]

The bad news: 4 new confirmed cases in Oregon today.  The good news: aggressive contact tracing; transparent public reporting.

 

March 7, 2020

Oregon health officials have identified four new presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 among residents in Jackson, Klamath and Washington counties.

State and local health officials are moving quickly to contact people who may have been in close contact with the individuals who tested as presumptively positive cases. Three of the new cases are travel-related; one was a contact of a known case.

The Oregon State Public Health Laboratory tested 42 samples from 22 people yesterday (March 6, 2020), yielding the 4 presumptive positive cases and 18 negatives.

[Bevo 13,576]

 

 

53 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

What about the 10-20 percent with bad enough hypoxemia that required incubation and external oxygen for 10 to 21 days to survive? 

 

I've been incubated before. Never again. Save that for Satya.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Bevo

[GreenspointTexas 9,600]

Cases have increased by 60% in the US in the last 18 hours

[conVINCEd 21,469]

2 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Cases have increased by 60% in the US in the last 18 hours

It’s the testing that has increased.  IMO.

[BrickHorn 18,220]

28 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I’m guessing he misspoke there.

Kind of like when you mistakenly say you voted for Gary Johnson?  /noCR

[bigup2dahorns 3,343]

Amtrak suspends nonstop Acela service between DC and New York as demand weakens amid coronavirus

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/amtrak-cancels-nonstop-acela-service-between-dc-nyc-due-to-coronavirus.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

[triplehorn 2,664]

 

[ChiTownDoc 21,152]

45 minutes ago, Loco said:

It's hilarious that some posters are talking about the ridiculous corona virus panic.   I haven't seen a single person panicking about the virus...  not in a store, restaurant, gas station, the beach, bars...

I think there are a bunch of folks who want to pretend everything is normal and not to pretend everything is normal = panic.

 

The whores are still whores here in Vegas.  All is well in my book.  

[TwiceHorn 31,452]

5 hours ago, Somnio said:

I mean it certainly appears to be the case.  It is shocking to realize. 

Even if you believe in small, limited government I would think coordinating a plan to deal with a global pandemic would fall under the federal government's duties.

I tend to (believe in federalism/primacy of states) and this is absolutely an issue that requires federal response.

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

Going to stop by for a second and say that:

1.) Unless autocorrect is fucking you guys up, I think you mean intubation, as in being on a ventilator,and  not incubation, as in hatching eggs. 

2.) Maine - aka "Vacationland" - in the summertime is the tits. Wintertime not so much. 

[Loco 3,752]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The whores are still whores here in Vegas.  All is well in my book.  

Different virus, but I know what you mean.

I know someone that got roped into a realestate conference in Vegas going on now.   He's not a happy camper, says it's cold out there. /nogroundhogsday

[GRHorn 105]

4 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Going to stop by for a second and say that:

1.) Unless autocorrect is fucking you guys up, I think you mean intubation, as in being on a ventilator,and  not incubation, as in hatching eggs. 

2.) Maine - aka "Vacationland" - in the summertime is the tits. Wintertime not so much.