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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 24908

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, GreenspointTexas said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf
 

id predict 15-20% get terrible symptoms/ end up in the ER/ICU and 80% or so get decent flu like symptoms

 

98% of everyone infected gets a fever for crying out loud. This thing is worse than just a common cold, jfc

So?????

Ballgame?

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I am glad the State and local governments are telling the federal government to lead, follow or get the fuck out of the way without waiting for a pointless response.

It’s almost like more decentralized governance with a heavy private sector influence is going to function better under most circumstances. 

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9600

Posted
Posted
Just now, Surly Bevo said:

So?????

Ballgame?

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. This isnt the zombie apocalypse, but it sure as shit aint just another cold. 
 

And it will definitely rip through most of america. Its been here (known for 9 days) and our govt has done virtually nothing to respond or be proactive. That gives me very little hope that we can slow this down. It also, in addition to being here 9 days, has a two week headstart on everyone

 

Again, if the mortality rate is even close to the 3.5% we have been seeing for the past 2 months, then that means maybe 15-20% of people infected will be in the hospital. We dont have beds for that number of people, and that will likely cause numbers to rise even higher. What we are likely seeing is  unprecedented in modern human history. The response/preparation is not

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62642

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27 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf
 

id predict 15-20% get terrible symptoms/ end up in the ER/ICU and 80% or so get decent flu like symptoms

 

98% of everyone infected gets a fever for crying out loud. This thing is worse than just a common cold, jfc

 

18 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. This isnt the zombie apocalypse, but it sure as shit aint just another cold. 
 

And it will definitely rip through most of america. Its been here (known for 9 days) and our govt has done virtually nothing to respond or be proactive. That gives me very little hope that we can slow this down. It also, in addition to being here 9 days, has a two week headstart on everyone

 

Again, if the mortality rate is even close to the 3.5% we have been seeing for the past 2 months, then that means maybe 15-20% of people infected will be in the hospital. We dont have beds for that number of people, and that will likely cause numbers to rise even higher. What we are likely seeing is  unprecedented in modern human history. The response/preparation is not

It’s been a gift to witness your tumbledown on this thread and I hesitate to do anything to interfere, but I’ve got to understand something. 

What is your denominator here as you gird your loins for the oncoming bionuclear war? 15-20% of what? USA gen pop? How many of us are about die here right quick?

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Goredho

Goredho 17399

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20 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It’s almost like more decentralized governance with a heavy private sector influence is going to function better under most circumstances. 

That is correct in many cases.  There are some problems of a national or global scope, however, that are beyond the ability of individual states to handle.  These problems don’t respect state boundaries and a well-coordinated response in one state may be curtailed by the failings of the neighboring state.  I believe having a functional and competent centralized authority in that context is a good thing.

Instead, we have a federal governance that sought to curtail funding of the CDC and eliminated the office within the NSC that would have had the expertise and planning to allow for a more timely response to this coronavirus pandemic.  It is also undermining the message of our health and science experts and making the effort to combat this harder.

In that context, the states ignoring the central authority that has dropped the ball is our best case scenario.  The following link may offend political sensibilities, so click at your own risk.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/democrats-misleading-coronavirus-claims/

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted

 

As of two days ago, this source directly involved in studying and quantifying the sars-cov-2 virus catalogued 176 discreet genomes and they're adding more by the day.  Not a virologist, but I understand this to be due to random mutation.  We're already seeing reports of differences in virulence between at least two strains, I just had no idea we're approaching 200.  I understand mutations to be able to represent different things, and wrt this virus, some good for us, some bad.  To some degree mutations can make it hard for us to develop lasting immunity to an everchanging bug (bad for us), but on the other hand a bug can mutate themselves into a less virulent type.  Mutation rates vary and that in and of itself has variable adaptive consequence - whether a genotype changes or stays the same can result in any outcome depending on other environmental factors. 

Hopefully we start to see the virulence of this bug start to wash out  in short order.  Wishful thinking but not out of the question.

 

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wild_turkey

wild_turkey 3159

Posted
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1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

It doesnt matter. We have what, 300 airports in the USA? A thousand bus stations? People commute and drive hours upon end?

 

containment isnt possible at this point

 

What are you suggesting? Everyone should stop trying to contain it? And do what instead?

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the intent of your posts.

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Somnio

Somnio 751

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/fxmacro/status/1235673248618041345
 

10% of all positive cases in Italy admitted to ICU

I just want to get ahead of the inevitable responses, so here goes.

-Bro, only the most severe cases are positive right now!  Chill out!

-Dude, stop being ridiculous!  It's just old people!

-Come on man!  Italy's like the Mexico of Europe!  That shit'll never happen in 'Merica!

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15048

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Posted

I don’t understand why so many on here are downplaying the seriousness of this issue. Italy is a very good example of how fast this thing can be transmitted and it’s fairly straightforward math to calculate that it can quickly outstrip our hospital capacity, leaving hundreds and thousands to die. And of course we have China and Iran as secondary data points. I have a feeling in six to 12 weeks this thing could be extremely serious.

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Ths71

Ths71 472

Posted
Posted

Wife of my brother in law pilots big planes for a global delivery company. East Asian route. Been off last couple of weeks but headed out a couple of days ago.
She was at Narita International, Japan and said traffic control was quiet and TCAS that shows air traffic was empty.
Said the Shenzhen, China layover hotel had “temp takers” an “snot testers” and police guards outside. Crews are restricted to one wing and no housekeeping.
Her main concern was the Lobby Bar was closed.
Am not inviting her over when she gets back.
8ce9831c6742928c1ed96b69ad2ae458.jpg


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52490

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24 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Despite what the media and politicians want us to believe, that’s how our country is supposed to work.

Except in a handful of cases like interstate infrastructure, commerce, and other things that affect all the states or overwhelm the capacity of individuals states, like a national medical emergency. 

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8086817/Anxious-shoppers-line-stores-stockpile-water-toilet-paper.html

Anxious shoppers wait on line for hours outside of stores to stockpile water, toilet paper and cleaning supplies as coronavirus panic buying continues across the country

25671956-8086817-Shoppers_in_Miami_Flori

Shoppers in Miami, Florida, were seen piling up outside a Costco Saturday morning as they waited for the store to open

25671772-8086817-A_grinning_Van_Nuys_Cos

A grinning Van Nuys Costco shopper is seen with his cache of paper towels, bottled water and Gatorade

Sbbruin?

Edited by clapclapclap
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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18221

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13 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I don’t understand why so many on here are downplaying the seriousness of this issue. Italy is a very good example of how fast this thing can be transmitted and it’s fairly straightforward math to calculate that it can quickly outstrip our hospital capacity, leaving hundreds and thousands to die. And of course we have China and Iran as secondary data points. I have a feeling in six to 12 weeks this thing could be extremely serious.

Mainly because they’re letting normalcy bias overwhelm data and mathematics.  A massive pandemic is not something any of us have ever experienced.  In all likelihood, our parents have not lived through something like this either.  We are biased by our own life experience and, in that experience, these things always end up being much ado about nothing.  The data shows that this one is probably different, but many trust their gut over numbers.  

Combine that with the fact that people are fundamentally self-centered and any one individual is unlikely to die from this.  When making sacrifices, most ask “is this worth the benefit to me?”  Too few people ask “Is this worth the benefit to the unlucky ones who will die if we don’t make sacrifices to reduce the pace of this disease?”

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Goredho

Goredho 17399

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7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Except in a handful of cases like interstate infrastructure, commerce, and other things that affect all the states or overwhelm the capacity of individuals states, like a national medical emergency. 

Exactly.  To me, the ability to effectively respond to a global pandemic to protect our citizens would be part of “providing for the common defense” outlined in the constitution.  Global pandemics are a potentially existential threat to us.  Not viably defending us from such a threats is a violation of the most basic agreement between a people and their government — you exist to help protect us from dangers we could not face as individuals.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13511

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Besides his pants hanging halfway down his thighs, that guy is a moron. Water or Gatorade isn’t a problem. I don’t get the toilet paper grabs but maybe there could be a disruption in the supply chain.  Really the problem,that this idiot doesn’t get, is the potential of some food items to be scarce if there are work disruptions.

a smarter move is to load up on calorie-heavy items that can be stored for a long time. Pasta seems like a good item. Load the freezer up on chicken or beef.

its unfortunate that people seem to be hoarding cleaning supplies that contain alcohol but I’m not surprised.

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Loco

Loco 3752

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WHO Official Says Coronavirus Containment Remains Possible

Aylward led a fact-finding trip in China in February on behalf of the World Health Organization. He says the experience there altered his view of what can be done.

"They actually changed the course of a respiratory-borne outbreak without a vaccine, which was extraordinary," says Aylward. The number of daily new cases in China went from around 2,000 a day just a few weeks ago to less than 100 in recent days.

But Aylward says other countries may be taking the wrong lesson from China by attributing its success to the government's unprecedented restrictions of daily life in several cities, most famously Wuhan, the city of 11 million people where the outbreak began. There, the government has suspended transportation out of the city and for the most part required people to remain in their homes – with only brief forays permitted to stock up on food and other supplies.

 
Personal Essay: Coronavirus Lockdown Is A 'Living Hell'

"China has 31 provinces, thousands of cities," notes Aylward. "And it was only a few cities where they took those draconian measures. In the vast majority of them they ... really went back to fundamentals of public health."

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/08/813401722/who-official-says-coronavirus-containment-remains-possible?utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=twitter.com

 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52490

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11 minutes ago, Loco said:

WHO Official Says Coronavirus Containment Remains Possible

Aylward led a fact-finding trip in China in February on behalf of the World Health Organization. He says the experience there altered his view of what can be done.

"They actually changed the course of a respiratory-borne outbreak without a vaccine, which was extraordinary," says Aylward. The number of daily new cases in China went from around 2,000 a day just a few weeks ago to less than 100 in recent days.

But Aylward says other countries may be taking the wrong lesson from China by attributing its success to the government's unprecedented restrictions of daily life in several cities, most famously Wuhan, the city of 11 million people where the outbreak began. There, the government has suspended transportation out of the city and for the most part required people to remain in their homes – with only brief forays permitted to stock up on food and other supplies.

 
Personal Essay: Coronavirus Lockdown Is A 'Living Hell'

"China has 31 provinces, thousands of cities," notes Aylward. "And it was only a few cities where they took those draconian measures. In the vast majority of them they ... really went back to fundamentals of public health."

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/08/813401722/who-official-says-coronavirus-containment-remains-possible?utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=twitter.com

 

And now Italy is doing similar. 
 

so, which American cities will be locked down under martial law to save the rest of us?  Seattle and?

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