Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

8 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

The problem with my school is that I'm pretty sure about 3 of the 17 I have would put any type of effort into learning via tech.  I'm not blaming the kids.  I just only get homework from about 5 each day and that's with candy bribes.  4 of 17 came to parent-teacher mtgs last month.

I suggest you spend spring break watching Stand and Deliver, Dangerous Minds, and Dead Poets Society.

 

[Anastasis 23,469]

51 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

the CoVID-19 virus can pick up gene snippets from these underlying chronic diseases and become deadlier ... thus you want to be infected with CoVID-19 1.0, you want to avoid CoVID-19 4.0

Well that sounds fun. 

[Knoxtnhorn 5,974]

1 minute ago, Grade of D as in David said:

I suggest you spend spring break watching Stand and Deliver, Dangerous Minds, and Dead Poets Society.

 

Lol.  Seen them all.  I do very well within the confines of my classroom.  That's my point.  Many are not equipped with the home  environment to thrive via tech.  

Plus, I'm pretty sure the kids were about to start teaching me to dance.  /Bill Burr

[triplehorn 2,664]

8 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

And what about Germany.  How in the hell are they managing their numbers?

Germany hasn't taken dramatic steps yet but individual schools are closing and they have drive-through testing, like SoKo (w results in hours).  Seattle has already mobilized initial drive-through testing.  Germany appears to have a 8 day lag relative to Italy.  Germany has a lot fewer ICU cases right now than their case equivalent in France.

[Sbbruin 21,842]

He also said a 15-20 month timeline on a vaccine.  

 

[closetojumping 62,604]

5 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

I'm the one that mentioned businesses that hinge their success on a single event.  So you (and others) were responding to a ghost argument.  Congrats on moving the goal post to squeeze your point in there, I guess.  Of course a single large event can have a major impact on any business, but sustainable businesses are prepared to weather such events even if they  do significant damage to the bottom line.

ABW doesn't fit the description of what I was talking about at all, and they've been around long enough and had enough success that I assume they understand risk mitigation. I doubt seriously that those 100 kegs are going to put them out of business.  That doesn't mean it won't hurt. Shit happens, and good business owners know this and plan accordingly. 

If your business can't handle a single setback (even a large one) and survive, you don't really have a business but rather a hustle.  It's no different than having a large chunk of your revenue come from a single customer.  If you can't survive if they stop doing business with you tomorrow you only have a business because they're allowing you to have one.  Nothing wrong with that if you accept it for what it is, but no one should be surprised when it goes tits up.  A well run business would have sought to balance out its revenue sources prior to disaster striking.

I didn't write anything particularly controversial.  You just clearly chose to read something into it that wasn't there, as evidenced by your ABW example.  Although, if I wasn't an asshole on a high horse I wouldn't be posting on shaggy - so you're at least half right.

 

You're all over the map here. You took the position, or trope, really, since I see it regularly, that "Well, if one thing did your business in, then you didn't really have a business in the first place. womp womp."

Then, here in this post, you run out the new trope of "if you're dependent upon one customer, you don't really have a business. womp womp."

You're taking your experience and smearing that across the landscape of how all businesses should function. The business world according to Samson's Wig. "If you haven't stockpiled cash, you are running a deeeerrrrpp, a hustle! That's it!" 

That's not actually how it works across the board. Entire massive organizations have been built through the relationship with one or a couple of major clients. Intel, Microsoft, numerous groups supplying something, whether service or product, to Walmart. On and on. Are those not real businesses? "But closetojumping, all of those guys diversified into numerous clients!". Right, because they had enough time. I'll spoiler the rest of the long post to spare the uninterested/uninvolved. 

Spoiler

 

Most small businesses cannot handle one of two things: 1) a major disruption of business flow for a 2-month period; 2) a cancelation of a thing, whether client or event, that accounted for 40+% of their yearly profit. In order to do so, they need to either a) have pre-existing access to fresh capital or b) layoff staff (exact of opposite of what motivated many of them to get in business in the first placce) and delay, significantly, payments to AP at the risk of getting cutoff from vendors.

If that isn't you, congrats. That's not unsound business, in any event. Most small businesses aren't printing money, wildly profitable, and designed to create inflated cash positions that enable a massive rainy day fund (6 months worth, gtfo with that shit). Most small businesses are lifestyle businesses for the owner(s) or labors of love to a vision in which the driven had no perceived choice but to pursue it. I own a part of multiple small businesses and have a measure of control over all of them. They're fun, and they all have access to capital, but they're all still high risk and we view them as such. 

Now look at start-ups. Why do people invest in start-ups? "Duh. To make money." Sure. The other reason? Growth. They want to be a part of something that is growing and producing the potential for large returns down the line. Why? For one, being a part of job creation is not a silly or passing emotion for numerous interested investors. For two, ego. They want to be a part of being able to talk about something that took off and made a bunch of money and created a bunch of jobs and wealth. Otherwise, there are more sane, less emotional investments such as real estate, bonds, stocks, funds, etc. 

You know what fuels growth in a start-up? 1) A willing and sizeable addressable market (TAM). 2) Money. You don't raise money in a start-up to fucking sit on it for a rainy day. Many start-ups are pressured to and expected to grow, grow, grow as long as the TAM is larger than their customer book, and then when they hit peak adoption? Well, they'd better be expanding into adjacencies, and how. That all takes a fuckton of money, eventually. The rare case in which a Google or Facebook almost immediately starts printing money is the exception and not the rule, and even still, both of those groups raised a fuckton of money themselves for growth.

I've been a part of multiple start-up exits (not insignificantly and disconcertingly, another one is pending) and I am a part of a bunch of others in some manner right now. Not one of them has, or ever had, a rainy day stockpile of more than 2 months of payroll or COGS in the bank at any given time, unless they just finished a round. All start-ups are fragile until they aren't. Any massive disruption against their schedule and growth is a potential business killer. That could be of their own making. It could also be a black swan, like planes flying into buildings, or ponzi schemes being revealed that cutoff capital, or a fucking pandemic that creates a global shelter-in-place approach and cuts off customer interest due to fear for months without end. 

If this shit hits the US in a very Italy-esque manner, the consequences here will be an absolute devastation of the start-up and SMB landscape. Health & Wellness companies, e-commerce product and service entities, etc., might all thrive. Many others will not. That won't be through negligent management, your self-satisfied smugness seeing it otherwise or not.

 

 

[GreenspointTexas 9,600]

Oh jfc people. Take it to the Small Business thread ——————->

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Oh jfc people. Take it to the Small Business thread ——————->

No shit. 4 paragraph posts are getting skipped by me unless it’s from a tweet or quote because it’s highly unlikely it has anything to do with Coronavirus

[Abogado Peligroso 89]

46 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

What kind of lease has an escalator like that for one month?

This doesn’t happen.  If they pay percentage rent on gross receipts  on a monthly basis then they will have a big bump in their percentage rent in a busy month.   

[akhornfan 4]

48 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

What kind of lease has an escalator like that for one month?

Mac - very common for those types of businesses to have a blended lease. A base/fixed amount + a variable % of revenue component. That could create high payments in peak periods, but obviously the % component wouldn’t kick in it the revenue doesn’t happen. Still can be catastrophic though, as I’m sure plenty of businesses were banking on that cash flow. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by akhornfan
Nvm - same as above

[Dahobbs 17,534]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

the CoVID-19 virus can pick up gene snippets from these underlying chronic diseases and become deadlier ... thus you want to be infected with CoVID-19 1.0, you want to avoid CoVID-19 4.0

Isn't a virus/bacteria, once introduce to a population, mutating to become more deadly atypical/extremely rare? The evolutionary pressure is for the virus to survive, and killing the host/killing it more quickly does not accomplish that goal. 

[Not a cat 5,652]

26 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Both of my parents are dead, so I have that going for me.

Didn't your father valiantly give his life on this gem of a night?   There are worse ways to die than surrounded by family while watching an aggy collapse against your team. 

 

[NoName 16,351]

More Iran:

 

Johns Hopkins ArcGIS site has deaths at 291

[Captainant 27,654]

Gov Cuomo just activated the National Guard to enforce a containment area. They'll be helping to bring food to homes, clean public areas, and generally help to make the quarantine less absolutely shitty.

I wonder if this measure will be replicated in other places in the country...

[Sbbruin 21,842]

10 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Didn't your father valiantly give his life on this gem of a night?   There are worse ways to die than surrounded by family while watching an aggy collapse against your team. 

 

Indeed.  I left at halftime and listened to the comeback on the radio as I drove to see him.

[JesusSweatDuck 17,781]

Meanwhile in Iran

https://abcnews.go.com/International/27-killed-alcohol-poisoning-iran-protect-coronavirus/story?id=69481841

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

1 hour ago, Deej said:

And every single person on the planet will get this infection. Not sure I believe that. 

It won't be everybody, but it looks like based on the current R0, it would take about 76+% of the population to have been infected and developed immunity before we see any benefit from herd immunity (which is on par with Mumps, if you want a comparison).  The question is whether we will reach that level of immunity organically (through the spread of the disease), or will a viable immunization be created to boost our general immunity before we reach that point.  I'd say the former is much more likely than the latter.

[Rip76 4,925]

3 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Meanwhile in Iran

https://abcnews.go.com/International/27-killed-alcohol-poisoning-iran-protect-coronavirus/story?id=69481841

So basically Iran is the Arkansas of the middle east?

[Goredho 17,399]

1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

Good read re SoKo

Coronavirus: South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy

 

 

So you are trying to tell us that a sober, analytical and reasoned response to this threat works better than “GIVE ME ALL YOUR TP, BITCH!” and “LALALA I CANT HEAR YOU CORONAVIRUS BECAUSE YOU DONT EXIST AND EVEN IF YOU DID YOU WOYLD JUST BE THE FLU LALALALA!”

Get the fuck outta here with that shit.

Edited March 10, 2020 by Goredho

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

1 minute ago, Rip76 said:

So basically Iran is the Arkansas of the middle east?

If I were Iranian I would be offended

[StruggleBus 3,922]

10 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Meanwhile in Iran

https://abcnews.go.com/International/27-killed-alcohol-poisoning-iran-protect-coronavirus/story?id=69481841

lmao

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

Mixed bag for Italy today. New cases under 1000, bit deaths almost double to 170. I don't think that the quarantine can have had that much impact this quickly, so I'm hopeful that some of the awareness around hand washing etc may actually have done some good. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21,186]

I’m fairly surprised there’s that much booze in all of Iran.

[Sbbruin 21,842]

1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I’m fairly surprised there’s that much booze in all of Iran.

There's not.  If you read it, they were drinking industrial sanitizing alcohol.  Which is not the good kind.

[Jersey Man10 3,528]

I pulled that picture off her facebook, and given how skinny she is it was probably taken before her Filipino boyfriend got her pregnant, which means she was most likely 16 in the picture. I did not know her then. She is not any taller but is chubbier and looks older now.

I fapped to a 16 year old?

[TXSooner518 2,438]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So we’re going to run out of time?

Yes. Replace Oklahoma with Coronavirus and Aggy with USA#1 on the scoreboard. I won't comment on whose face should replace Little Debbie Franchione.

Edited March 10, 2020 by TXSooner518

[Pato del Muerto 52,489]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

Both of my parents are dead, so I have that going for me.

What about your birth parents?

[triplehorn 2,664]

I seeing WSJ dropped paywalls today.  Would be great if others did as well to maximize awareness.

[Wally Fairway 5,543]

Harvard to remain closed after spring break, classes moved to on-line (or is this a hoax post?)

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/3/11/harvard-coronavirus-classes-cancelled/

Quote

ll Harvard courses will move to remote instruction beginning March 23 as a result of a growing global coronavirus outbreak, University President Lawrence S. Bacow announced in an email Tuesday morning. The University will also ask students not to return from spring break.

The move follows both similar decisions at other Ivy League universities in recent days and rapid changes on campus. As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Massachusetts rises, events and venues have closed, travel restrictions have tightened, and University affiliates have questioned how the disease will affect life and work on campus.

 

[Beau Vine 54,211]

7 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

There's not.  If you read it, they were drinking industrial sanitizing alcohol.  Which is not the good kind.

Don't judge me.

[Skipper 6,133]

8 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Mixed bag for Italy today. New cases under 1000, bit deaths almost double to 170. I don't think that the quarantine can have had that much impact this quickly, so I'm hopeful that some of the awareness around hand washing etc may actually have done some good. 

I think that's our best bet.  If we are where Italy was at 10-14 days ago, I don't think we really have a sense how much hygiene and 'social distancing' were emphasized over there during February (to CTJ's point, were they still constantly kissing with customary greetings?).  I'm hoping the media coverage, combined with cancellations to date, will slow it down a bit.   A few weeks seems like it could be potentially huge when you combine seasonal flu season winding down (hospital beds opening up) + warmer weather (to the extent that has the impact everyone is hoping for).  But then I think about how many absolute fucking morons we have in this country and I don't have a lot of hope.

[HRSchenker 2,268]

New York is bringing in the goddamn national guard for a containment zone north of NYC.

[Wally Fairway 5,543]

And NY sending the National Guard to quarantined area around New Rochelle

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-10-20-intl-hnk/h_784fb34921999ed90811d28c8f83c0fd

https://www.wsj.com/articles/containment-area-planned-for-new-york-suburb-to-stem-coronavirus-spread-11583858117?mod=hp_lead_pos1

still paywalled 
 

Quote

Gov. Andrew Cuomo said New York would establish a “containment area” in New Rochelle to control the spread of a novel coronavirus in the Westchester County suburb at the center of the outbreak in the state.

The area would close facilities—including schools—within one mile of the center of the outbreak for two weeks, starting Thursday, state officials said. The containment step would close “major gathering places” and facilities, such as temples in the area, the governor said, although individuals would still be free to walk around.

Mr. Cuomo said Tuesday that New Rochelle had “probably the largest cluster in the United States in these cases and is a significant issue for us.”

New York had 173 confirmed cases statewide, but no deaths and only 14 people in hospitals, he said. Most of those hospitalized were in vulnerable high-risk groups, such as the elderly.

The New Rochelle area had 108 virus cases, he said. Northwell Health, which has a private lab, will set up a satellite testing facility in the area. The National Guard would also be deployed to the containment area, Mr. Cuomo said.

“New Rochelle is a particular problem,” he said. “The numbers are going up unabated, and we do need a special public health strategy for New Rochelle.”

About 1,000 people in Westchester County have been quarantined in recent days after many attended religious services, a bat mitzvah and funeral in late February at Young Israel of New Rochelle, a synagogue at the heart of a modern Orthodox community.

Officials say a 50-year-old attorney dubbed “patient zero” for the spread attended those events.

The patient lives in New Rochelle and has a Midtown Manhattan law office. Officials say many confirmed cases of the virus are connected to him. He tested positive for the virus on March 3.

Several religious schools in the area have already closed. Connections are tight among families who live near each other, attend services together and go to religious schools. At SAR Academy and SAR High School in the Riverdale section of the Bronx, for example, some students and faculty attended events at the New Rochelle synagogue. Now school officials report 29 cases of coronavirus among its community, including students, staff and household members.

New Rochelle is about 20 miles north of Midtown Manhattan. The city had about 79,000 residents in 2018, by U.S. census estimates.

 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

41 minutes ago, NoName said:

More Iran:

 

Johns Hopkins ArcGIS site has deaths at 291

Yeah, like Russia, there will be thousands of deaths, and no one will really know about it. 

 

[Sbbruin 21,842]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

What about your birth parents?

The only one I know of, birth mom, died in 1984 at the age of 44.  So I think she's safe.

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

4 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Harvard to remain closed after spring break, classes moved to on-line (or is this a hoax post?)

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/3/11/harvard-coronavirus-classes-cancelled/

 

During this period will they charge late fees on library books or is that included in the $150,000 education?

[clapclapclap 9,000]

43 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Gov Cuomo just activated the National Guard to enforce a containment area. They'll be helping to bring food to homes, clean public areas, and generally help to make the quarantine less absolutely shitty.

I wonder if this measure will be replicated in other places in the country...

I hope not.  That's the kind of overkill response (phrasing) that could actually lead to violence.  Better to do a soft voluntary quarantine.  It won't be as effective, but will still make a big difference.  You've got to let those working critical jobs get to work, people get to the store if they need food, etc.

Edit:  Though let's see what the reality of NY's containment efforts are, versus how it is initially reported in our idiot media and social media numbskulls.

Edited March 10, 2020 by clapclapclap

[utee94 15,811]

7 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

New York is bringing in the goddamn national guard for a containment zone north of NYC.

Better get ready for this guy to do his thing...

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

1 minute ago, clapclapclap said:

I hope not.  That's the kind of overkill response (phrasing) that could actually lead to violence.  Better to do a soft voluntary quarantine.  It won't be as effective, but will still make a big difference.  You've got to let those working critical jobs get to work, people get to the store if they need food, etc.

So a "Mormon soak" type of quarantine is what you would recommend?

 

[Deej 76,759]

21 minutes ago, Jersey Man10 said:

13 hours ago, RayDog said:

I pulled that picture off her facebook, and given how skinny she is it was probably taken before her Filipino boyfriend got her pregnant, which means she was most likely 16 in the picture. I did not know her then. She is not any taller but is chubbier and looks older now.

I fapped to a 16 year old?

[Anastasis 23,469]

12 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

New York is bringing in the goddamn national guard for a containment zone north of NYC.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

7 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

So a "Mormon soak" type of quarantine is what you would recommend?

I'm not going to Google that.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

I hope not.  That's the kind of overkill response (phrasing) that could actually lead to violence.  Better to do a soft voluntary quarantine.  It won't be as effective, but will still make a big difference.  You've got to let those working critical jobs get to work, people get to the store if they need food, etc.
Edit:  Though let's see what the reality of NY's containment efforts are, versus how it is initially reported in our idiot media and social media numbskulls.

So now we’re quarantining too harshly?

Americans aren’t going to listen if it’s a soft quarantine.

[conVINCEd 21,469]

1 minute ago, clapclapclap said:

I'm not going to Google that.

It’s sorta like ‘just the tip’.

[StruggleBus 3,922]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So now we’re quarantining too harshly?

Americans aren’t going to listen if it’s a soft quarantine.

Exactly. How am I supposed to stay in my house when happy hour is about to start at Cheddar's?

[clapclapclap 9,000]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So now we’re quarantining too harshly?

Americans aren’t going to listen if it’s a soft quarantine.

Most would, most of the time, once the seriousness of the spread settles in.  Probably about a week or two away from that.  Just need video of a few overwhelmed US hospitals, ER's turning away patients or lines out into the parking lot, plus the inevitable spike in numbers as testing finally ramps up.  We're headed for an Italy phase.

[Beau Vine 54,211]

8 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

I'm not going to Google that.

"mormon soak" = stick your dick in, but don't move it around.  Just let it "soak."

[Hagbard Celine 10,853]

56 minutes ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

It won't be everybody, but it looks like based on the current R0, it would take about 76+% of the population to have been infected and developed immunity before we see any benefit from herd immunity (which is on par with Mumps, if you want a comparison).  The question is whether we will reach that level of immunity organically (through the spread of the disease), or will a viable immunization be created to boost our general immunity before we reach that point.  I'd say the former is much more likely than the latter.

i think 76% is way too high *IF* hotspots are quarantined.

i just got a mail that one of my chinese suppliers is restarting manufacturing/production, for delivery mid-late april, which means with normal boat time they have to already be "open" or "gearing up" and they wouldn't do this unless the workers were present, available and cleared.

[Parliament 14,255]

delete

Edited March 10, 2020 by Parliament

[HoustonFrog 368]

Perhaps I’m just misinformed but it sure seems the panic is totally out of proportion to the reality

Every place this thing has spiked has seemingly been able to get it under control in a week or two. There is yet to be a place where cases and conditions are just totally collapsing.... China figured it out, SKorea did it, Italy is starting to get there. Germany and France will as well.

At the end of the day, what is a couple thousand cases to SKorea, Italy, Germany and France? It’s nothing. Even if we hit 100k here that’s minimal.

I’m having a hard time reconciling the actual numbers to the panic. This type of panic I’d expect the numbers to be in the millions by now and certainly not curtailing so quickly in highly affected areas.

I think relative precaution and some cancellations makes sense, self quarantines, etc.